Dr. Vegas
Penn State vs Iowa
Third-ranked Penn State takes their perfect 8-0 record on the road, traveling to Iowa City, Iowa to take on the middle-of-the-pack Hawkeyes. Iowa has a barely-over-.500 straight up 5-4 record, and a 4-4 record against the number. Penn State’s 6-1-1 ATS record is every bit as impressive as their straight up number. For an 8-0 team to have this solid of an ATS record means Vegas has not been able to adjust the line enough to compensate. In fact, their one ATS loss was a 14-point win in a game they were favored by 15. The Nittany Lions have been a great value all season long. The big question is if Vegas will continue to adjust until Penn State is no longer a good value.
Penn State has scored the most points in the Big 10, at 310. They have also given up the least amount of points in the conference, at 90. Road trips in no way seem to affect them. They’re winning road games by an average of 26 points, compared to home wins averaging 29-point victories.
Looking further into the numbers, and the Dr. Vegas Exclusive Power Ratings, we find Penn State with a +8.7 mark and an opponent ratings of -4.3. Iowa has a +0.2 PR and an opponent rating of -5.2. In other words, Penn State has performed much better against stronger opponents than Iowa has faced.
Iowa is coming off of a 3-point loss to fellow mid-field Big 10 foe, Illinois. Penn State is not only rested after a bye week, but that follows a 13-6 victory over Big 10 and then-Top 10 rival Ohio State.
The bottom line on this game is that Penn State is on top of their game, have remained focused, and have toppled much more capable opponents.
Additional notes of info: The last time these two teams met was October 6, 2007. Penn State was favored by 9 and easily won by 20… The line opened at Penn State -8. It has dropped as low as -7, but as of this writing is at -7.5… Penn State QB Daryll Clark suffered a mild concussion in the Ohio State game but is expected to play on Saturday.
Take Penn State -7.5 over Iowa.
Mike Wynn Sports
California @ USC
The task for California is simple, win out and they play in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. But obviously that’s easier said than done when you have back-to-back road trips to USC and Oregon St. Cal Bears start the first half of that twin bill with the game at USC Saturday. California is 6-2 this season and 4-1 in Pac-10 play, and they’re fresh off a big win over Oregon Saturday. California may have played their best defensive game of the season allowing just 290 total yards to Oregon and they’ll have to have another huge effort to knock off USC Saturday. Trojans 7-1 this season and 5-1 in conference are currently sitting at seventh in the latest BCS rankings and they’re definitely sitting on the outside looking in. A BCS Championship game is not impossible for USC but they’ll need a lot of help and they’ll need to be perfect from here on out. So let’s take a closer look at both these teams Saturday and we’ll start with the visiting California Bears.
As I mentioned earlier Cal does control their own destiny for the Pac-10 Championship and subsequent Rose Bowl bid, but a 1-2 road record thus far this season doesn’t bode well for the Bears at USC. California’s only road win this season was over a hapless Washington St club that has yet to win a game this season over a Division 1-A opponent. California QB Riley was knocked out of Saturday’s win over Oregon with a concussion and his status for USC is still unknown at the time of this writing, but Cal is not without a backup. QB Nate Longshore was Tedford’s starter in 2006 & 2007 with a 60% pass completion rate and 40 touchdowns against 26 picks. Longshore more than capable of running the Bears offense and Cal’s best RB Jahvid Best continues to get healthier and racked up 93 yards rushing last week in horrible conditions against Oregon. California defense played another strong game at home against Oregon last week allowing only 1 score despite 5 Cal turnovers in the first half. Bears defense is giving up 21.0 points per game this season, but they’ve allowed 26.7 a game on the road. Cal has played USC well in recent years with 4 of the last 6 determined by a touchdown or less, and you know they’ll be pumped for this one Saturday.
USC Trojans at 7-1 are in a tough spot to make the BCS Championship. With 1 loss the Trojans may fall victim to a down year in the Pac-10, as the computer takes into account strength of schedule when spitting out the BCS standings each week. This weeks game will probably be USC’s last game against a ranked opponent as they close out with Stanford, Notre Dame, and UCLA. Many including myself would argue that USC is one of the best 3 or 4 teams in the country and it’s to bad we don’t have a playoff system for Division 1-A football. USC is solid at every position and as deep as any team in the country. QB Mark Sanchez has 22 touchdowns this season against 7 interceptions completing 65% of his passes. USC has a whole stable of running backs averaging 5.3 yards per carry or better, and the receiving corps is terrific as well. As good as the offense is it’s the defense that’s the strength of this team. Trojans are allowing 7.1 points per game this season and just 3.2 points per game at home including a pair of shutouts. USC is only allowing 212 yards per game this year and just 84 yards rushing per contest. USC knows Cal has been a tough out for them in recent years and there should be no chance of a look ahead today.
Taking a look at some trends and angles for this match up Saturday we find that USC plays their best ball in November with an 8-0 ATS mark over the last 3 seasons. Pete Carroll an outstanding 60-38 ATS in all games he’s coached at USC including 29-17 ATS at home. Head to head trends favor the Bears however as Cal has covered 6 of the last 8 contests at USC, and 11 of the last 13 games in this series have been decided by 14 points or less. 19 points is a lot of points to give a Jeff Tedford squad, but I prefer a totals play here and expect an under. California offense not as explosive as they been in recent seasons and they’ll find the going extremely tough in this one. Cal defense showed some game last week in controlling the trenches versus Oregon and we’ll look for them to at least keep this one respectable Saturday.
Alex Smart
Rutgers -14.0
Rutgers(3-5) in a rebuilding year started out their current campaign very slowly, but as the season has progressed they have begun to jell , as was evident in their last trip to the gridiron when they cold cocked the inconsistent Pittsburgh Panthers by a lopsided 54-34 count.
The Scarlet Knights well rested and off a bye week, are now riding a two game winning streak , and will be ready to continue their positive momentum , vs a Syracuse Orange( 2-6) side that has allowed 33.1 PPG and 427 total YPG in 2008.
The Orange saving grace and this season, has been their offense, however, against a Rutgers side that is holding opponents to 347.2 total YPG, and just 19.5 PPG at home in Piscataway , putting points on the board, will not come easily.
What I am betting will happen.... Look for Rutgers QB Mike Teel , who passed for 361 yards and 6 Tds last time out, to come out firing with a merciless aerial assault, against a Orange secondary that has been ripped for 224 passing yards per game. On defense, I expect the Scarlet Knights, to use a variation of the nickel defense, to stack the box, and key on stopping the Orange most reliable mode of moving the chains RB-Curtis Brinkley. This combination will progressively lead to this contest ending in a one sided decision for the home team.
Final notes & Key Trends:The football Syracuse program is 16-31 ATS L/47 as a road underdog, losing SU by an average of 18.6 PPG.
Projected score: Rutgers 37 Syracuse 14
MATT FARGO
Virginia @ Wake Forest
PICK: Wake Forest -3.5
The ACC remains completely up for grabs as both the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions are still wide open. In the Atlantic, surprising Maryland has the lead but it is by only a half-game over Wake Forest and Florida St. The Demon Deacons lost to the Terrapins so they are at the wrong end of the tiebreaker meaning they need to finish with a better record to make a trip to the ACC Championship. Wake Forest put up a couple lame efforts on the road and an overtime home win over Duke should provide some momentum.
Virginia is also another surprise in the ACC as it is a half-game behind Georgia Tech in the Coastal but it does own the tiebreaker as it has already defeated the Yellow Jackets. The Cavaliers thought they had their game won against Miami on Saturday but the hurricanes scored a late touchdown in regulation and then were able to recover a fumble in overtime to secure the win. Virginia was outgained by 137 yards in that game and now heads out on the road for just its second road game in six weeks.
Wake Forest has a big advantage at the line of scrimmage and that is going to be the difference here. The Virginia rushing offense started extremely slow, picked up some steam and has started struggling again. The Cavaliers are 107th in the country in rushing offense, averaging just 103.2 ypg. Over their last three games, they are averaging only 85 ypg which happens to be just four yards less per game than they have averaged on the road this season.
The Demon Deacons rushing defense has been strong this season, allowing 125.4 ypg which is good for 47th in the nation. They have allowed more than 145 yards only once this season and that came against Navy which is no surprise. Take that pout and the average drops to 101.6 ypg. On the season, Wake Forest is allowing 3.6 ypc which is a truer indication of the success it has had. The total defense is ranked 34 in the nation so there is not a lot of room for Virginia to succeed.
Wake Forest has some success on offense running the ball but it has been far from what was expected. The Deacons have gone against some excellent rushing defenses this season and Virginia will not be included in that category. The Cavaliers are 76th in the nation in rushing defense and the average balloons on the road as they are allowing 207.3 ypg on 4.7 ypc in their three road games. Wake Forest is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss so we can expect another big bounceback here. 3* Wake Forest Demon Deacons
LT Profits
Florida International +2.5
The Florida International Golden Panthers had a five-game winning streak against the spread snapped last week at Louisiana-Lafayette, but we look for them to pull the mild upset returning home here vs. Arkansas State.
The Indians are just 1-3 straight up on the road this season, with the lone road win being a shocker at Texas A&M on opening weekend. However, that was their only road win in their last 11 road games extending back to the tail end of 2006, and Arkansas State has been outscored by an average of -12.3 points in those 11 road contests.
Now FIU is averaging a mediocre 21.3 points per game this season, but keep in mind that they were held to 10 points or less in three brutal non-conference matchups with Kansas, Iowa and South Florida. They did put up 35 points in a road upset at Toledo, and the offense has been fine since the start of Sun Belt Conference play, averaging 29.0 points per contest.
Finally, this is a triple revenge spot for FIU, who just missed in a 27-24 loss at Arkansas State last year. This time, they get over the hump at home.
Pick: Florida International +2.5
Wunderdog
Arizona State at Washington
Pick: Washington +14.5
The Sun Devils were supposed to contend for the Pac-10 title. However, they lost a couple of games and totally quit on their coach. Their season was spoiled in week three with a loss to UNLV right before they were ready to make a statement against Georgia at home. Georgia came in and whipped them badly in a 27-10 loss, and this team has been a complete no-show ever since. The losing streak has reached six and at the beginning of the season this should have been the time of year we were talking about a winning streak of six with this team. Washington has yet to win a game this season, so they won't suddenly inspire Arizona State. So for a team that has already quit, going to play a nobody, they will be going through the motions. Meanwhile, the Huskies will be hungry to get their first win. They stayed within 7 of Stanford and caught BYU going through the motions, losing by just a point at home. They now get Arizona State who has been going through the motions for six weeks - a teamthat is 0-3 on the road averaging just 13 points per game. Arizona State hasn't covered the spread in the second of back-to-back road games in three seasons. I'll grab the lucrative points on the home dog here.
Totals 4U
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech
Oklahoma State (8-1, 4-1 Big 12) crushed Iowa State 59-17 last week at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, racking up 682 yards of total offense including 395 yards through the air by 6’3” 210 junior QB Zac Robinson (129 of 187 for 2082 yards, 20 TD, 5 INT) who found 6’2” 215 sophomore WR Dez Bryant (60 for 1054 and 15 TD) four times for scores. As impressive as that win was, Special Teams Coordinator Joe Deforest must have some concern. His crew has been largely sharp and includes Ray Guy ward Finalist senior P Matt Fodge (43.6 yards per punt, 1 blocked) but the Cyclones’ Leonard Johnson broke the All-Time NCAA single game kick return record with 319 yards on 9 returns with runs of 48, 72, and 73 yards. Now they hit the road again for their 3rd contest in 5 weeks against the NCAA’s Top 5 (won 28-23 at Missouri, lost 24-28 at Texas). The Cowboys have remained remarkably healthy this season just losing a handful of player-games all season including none by their experienced offensive line (just 10 sacks allowed) that has powered a blistering attack of 45.3 points on 512.0 yards per game (273.6 rush and 5.7 per with 29 TD, 238.4 pass at 10.9 per attempt and 24 TD). In addition to Bryant, who also returns punts at 19.2 yards per with a pair to the house, 6’5” 178 sophomore WR Damian Davis (9 for 222 and 2 TD) and 5’10” 186 junior WR Bo Dowling (9 for 172 and 2 TD) also work through the air where State has averaged a ridiculous 16.0 yards per completion. 6’6” 255 senior TE Brandon Pettigrew (21 for 236) missed 3 games this season and was used mostly in blocking against Iowa State but will become a bigger threat again as he gets healthier. And it only gets better on the ground. 5’8” 190 sophomore RB Kendall Hunter (182 for 1220 yards and 11 TD) may be the nation’s best small back while backups Keith Tolston (76 for 565 and 8 TD) and Beau Johnson (48 for 303 and 3 TD) offer opponents simply no drop off. With the set offense to dynamic, QB Robinson (92 rushes for 341 yards and 5 TD) hasn’t needed to run as much this season but with 1332 career yards on the ground he can unleash his wheels at any time.
Former Oklahoma State star quarterback and present Head Coach Mike Gundy (26-20 in 4th season) brings his best defense ever to the field this season, allowing 21.0 points on 357.4 yards per game. The base is 4-3 but Defensive Coordinator Tim Beckman will mix in plenty of 3-man line cross opponents up and it certainly has been effective against the run where the Cowboys yield just 3.8 yards per carry and 116.9 per game. The senior interior of defensive tackles 6’0” 310 Tonga Tea (14 T, 2 ½ TFL) and 6’3” 290 Jeray Chatham (8 T, 2 TFL, S) get great penetration as do backups Miller (10 T, 2 TFL) and Jarka (8 T, 3 TFL) who rotate heavily while 6’5” 253 sophomore left ends Ugo Chinasa (20 T, 6 ½ TFL, 2 S, I) and 6’2” 245 junior Jeremiah Price (17 T, 3 S, I) may not have huge sack numbers because of the scheme but are superb players that control the line of scrimmage. Benefiting from the discipline up front are backers Orie Lemon (60 T, 3 ½ TFL) Patrick Lavine (42 T, 2 TFL, 2 I), and especially 6’0” 217 junior SLB Andre Sexon (69 T, 4 TFL, S, I) who is able to work free most of the time behind Chiasa/Price. LCB Perrish Cox (21 T, I) – with speed that has produced 31.1 yards per kick return and a score - is the guy most passing offenses want to stay away from so 5’11” 175 senior RCB Jacob Lacey (37 T, TFL, 2 I) and 5’11” 175 NB Terrance Anderson (22 T, 1 ½ TFL, I) get plenty of action on a squad the allows 240.6 yards per game through the air at just 6.1 yards per attempt plus the Cowboy safeties hit like much bigger men. Quinton Moore (45 T) and backup TJ Bell (17 T, TFL) are solid players but keep your eyes on 6’1” 193 senior SS Ricky Price. Beckman will line up this kid from Houston all over the field where he has racked a pair of sacks among 4 ½ tackles for loss, snatched a pick, and piled up 48 tackles through 9 games.
Texas Tech (9-0, 5-0 Big 12) gave back a 19-0 lead and then came back to pull off the biggest victory in school history last week, 39-33 over the Longhorns, with a 28-yard Harrell to Crabtree through double coverage touchdown with a single second remaining on the clock, capping off a 31 first down and 5579 yards offensive performance. 6’3” 214 sophomore WR Michael Crabtree (70 for 921 yards and 15 TD) is simply in a class by himself looking to defend his 2007 Biletnikoff Award that he earned with NCAA bests 134 catches for 1960 yards (including 14 for 237 against the Cowboys) and 22 touchdowns in his freshman season. 6’3” 205 senior QB Graham Harrell’s (292 of 413 for 3621 yards, 30 TD, 5 INT) career numbers are just as eye popping with 4555 passing yards in 2006 and another 5705 last season plus he has added 5 scores on the ground this campaign. The biggest question about this pair is which one should with the Heisman Trophy with a secondary query of just who couldn’t put up numbers behind this offensive line? At 323 pounds and 6’6” per man this crew is a home-grown Texas force of nature and the right, power-rushing side of 6’7” 327 junior RT Marlon Winn and 6’7” 354 junior RG Brandon Carter should have their own time zone and may shift the earth’s axis if their Red Raiders make trip to Miami for the National Championship Game. Behind these behemoths, backs 5’11” 194 senior Shannon Woods (107 for 552 yards and 10 TD) and 5’11” 200 sophomore Baron Batch (82 for 588 and 5 TD) simply cannot be found while the receiving corps of Morris (46 for 498 and 5 TD), James (12 for 110 and TD), Lewis (50 for 637 and TD), Swindall (33 for 422 and TD), Britton (27 for 461 and 3 TD), Leong (11 for 122 and 3 TD), plus Crabtree give even offensive genius and Head Coach Mike Leach (74-37 in 9th season) more weapons than he has snaps for. By the numbers, Tech has piled up an astounding 47.0 points (#3 NCAA) on 559.3 yards (#2) including 424.6 (#1) through the air per game.
If you think Texas was a fluke, look no further than the 63-21 demolition the Red raiders performed on Kansas in Lawrence the week before and defense has been a key part of the equation, especially contributing to Texas Tech’s 238-94 first half scoring advantage. Often troubled RDE McKinner Dixon (24 T, 7 sacks) will be missed this week after being helped off the field against the Horns but backups 6’7” 255 senior Jake Ratliff (7 T, TFL) and 6’3” 239 junior Daniel Howard (6 T, 3 S) are ready to go in his place while LDE Brandon Williams (18 T, 10 sacks) flat-out can single-handedly change a game by himself plus defensive tackles 6’1” 272 junior Richard Jones (20 T, 4 TFL, S, I) and 6’2” 281 sophomore Colby Whitlock (26 T, 4 TFL, I, SF) do much more than just hold the point as one can see from the picks and tackles for loss. Backers Bront Bird (41 T, 3 TFL, S), Brian Duncan (63 T, TFL, I), and Marlon Williams (49 T, 3 TFL, 2 S) are each extremely quick to the ball plus – just like the Tech defensive line – have the keen awareness and ball skills to bat and deflect a ton of passes. 15 interceptions have been the tally for Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeill’s unit with 6’1” 196 senior FS Darcell McBath (48 T) and 5’11” 203 senior and Big 12 Defender of the Week SS Daniel Charbonnet (48 T, 2 TFL) each snatching 5 ball apiece. Against a team as effective through the air and around the ends on the ground as Oklahoma State, play from your corners is critical and the Raiders have a pretty sharp junior pair. 5’10” 195 LCB Jamar Wall (44 T, TFL, 2 I) and 6’0” 195 Brent Nickerson (26 T) bring the size necessary in the Big 12 Conference while backup safeties Rowland (21 T, TFL) and Hines (18 T) get most of the action in the nickel and dime. And then…there is…the Texas Tech…placekicking game. If you don’t know the story, Mike Leach was so beside himself with the numerous blocked kicks that he grabbed a kid from the student body. Earlier this season, in a shoot-a-ball-from-half-court-and-win-a-million-dollars type of deal, 5’10” 156 Matt Williams was selected at random from the student section to attempt a 30-yarder at halftime for a chance to win a free month of rent. Williams sailed the ball through, was flagged down by the Tech staff on the way back to his seat, and found himself in Coach Leach’s office come Monday. In his first game, Williams earned Big 12 Conference Special Teams Player of the Week honors by nailing 9 of 9 extra points against Kansas. If you made this stuff up, it would take about 3 seconds for someone to call “Bullshit”!
SELECTION: This game has been moved to prime time (8:00 PM EST on ABC) and is unquestionably the game to watch this weekend. The Cowboys have blocked 3 kicks this season, have had one blocked, surrendered the all-time, single-game kick return mark last week, and have banked 3 return touchdowns of their own. The Red Raiders have had 9 of their own kicks blocked, feature a kid from the crowd making place kicks, have blocked a pair of their opponents attempts, and have taken a punt to the house. We’ll go with the Mike Leach’s crew to get their 12th consecutive home with over Oklahoma State but special teams play makes this contest a better game to watch than bet. Take Texas Tech –3 ½ at AT&T Jones Stadium.
Bettorsworld
3* Virginia +4 over Wake Forest
Virginia is a perfect example of why season to date stats can be meaningless and why you need to break seasons down into segments. The Cavs without a doubt looked like one of the worst teams in college football to start the year. Give them a pass for getting hammed by USC in the opener, but following a win over Richmond, they then went on to get hammered by Uconn and Duke. Naturally any season to date stats reflect that horrendous start, but if you throw out that horrible start and concentrate on the last 5 games Virginia has played, you see a very different team. They now resemble last years bunch, which went 9-4 and played more 1 and 2 point games than any other team in the country, sporting a stingy defense that kept teams out of the End Zone.
For example, if you take Virginia's season to date points for and against you see a team getting outscored 17-22 on the year. We love to use yards per point numbers as well to illustrate how hard a team has to work to score 1 point. The lower the number on offense the better. The Higher the number on defense, the better. Virginia's year to date ypp numbers are 18 on offense and 15 on defense. As we pointed out in a write up last week, when the offense number is higher than the defense number, that's a bad thing. The 18 on offense means Virginia has had to travel 18 yards to score one point. To compare, a team like Florida scores 1 point every 10 yards.
When we toss out those early season fiascos and focus just on the last 5 games, we see a Virginia Team that is outscoring it's opponents 24-14. They have an offensive ypp number of 15 and a defensive ypp number of 22. Spectacular on the defensive side of the ball. They have accomplished this against good ACC teams. They beat Maryland 31-0. They beat non ACC East Carolina. They beat North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and lost by a TD in overtime to Miami. These are all teams that will contend for the ACC title and Virginia beat them all but Miami.
Wake Forest would seem to be tailor made for Virginia. At the very least this one has all the makings of a last second field goal game which could go either way. It's definitely a game Virginia can win. Wake Forest was averaging 10 points per game over their 5 games previous to last weeks 33 against Duke and in that time they hadn't scored more than 17 in that stretch. Don't look at the Duke game and think Wake Forest rediscovered it's offense. Duke has given up 24 or more points in 5 of their 8 games this year.
Now Wake Forest must contend with a defense that has held teams to 0, 20, 13, 17 and 24 points their last 5 times out and the last one was really a 17 if you don't count overtime. For a team not putting it in the end zone against good defenses, covering a 4 point spot would seem to be a tall order for Wake Forest this week. With all that's on the line this week in the ACC you'd expect a tough, close game here.
The last 4 times these two played the games were decided by 4 points or less. Last year was the first time they had played since 2003 and Virginia came away with a 1 point home win. Interestingly enough Virginia is 12-1 straight up against Wake Forest.
Wake Forest still holding on to one trait that has made them tough the last few years and that's the ability to create turnovers. They are the #4 team in the Nation in that category. They don't beat themselves and in a game likely to be decided by a mistake, the lean would go to Wake Forest, but Virginia has done a decent job in that category over the last 5 games, staying on the plus side of the margin, just not as good as Wake who has only turned the ball over twice in the last 4 games. (Virginia turned it over 5 times their last 2 games).
But it's the Virginia season that looks to hold more promise. One win away from being Bowl eligible after that terrible start would be quite a story, and getting there is no guarantee with Clemson and Virginia Tech on deck. Wake Forest seems to have lost some of that magic we've been accustomed to seeing over the last few years.
We're counting on this one coming down to the wire, in which case, the +4 looms large. Virginia +4 over Wake Forest.
3* Vanderbilt +24 over Florida
No question it's incredibly tough to go against Florida. A potential National Championship team. A team that really hasn't played a close game all year with the exception of 3 quarters against Miami and a loss to Ole Miss. Not only have they blown teams out but look at the teams they have blown out. Specifically LSU and Georgia. Now we have Vanderbilt, a team that hasn't scored more than 14 points in a game for 4 weeks straight going up against one of the best offenses in the land. Rarely will we ever back a team that we don't think can win a game straight up. That's really our M.O. Backing good dogs we think can spring outright upsets, or small priced favs. Do we think Vanderbilt can beat Florida? It's possible. It's just not likely. So in this spot, we're likely asking Vandy to stay within the number. But hey, a straight up win? Dare to dream.
There are some interesting things we can point to when making a case for Vandy. Let's start with the pointspread of recent Vandy- Florida games. Now remember, Florida has had some pretty good teams over the years, including a National Championship team in 2006. Yet in the last 6 years, Florida has never been a 24 point favorite against Vandy. The last 4 times they have played, we saw lines of -14.5, -16.5, -18.5 and -11.5 all with Florida being favored. This is significant because Vandy covered 2 of the last 3 games and there is little doubt that this Vandy team is better than any of the past years teams. Furthermore, if you gave Vanderbilt 24 points in each of the last 16 games between these two, Vandy would have gone 11-5 against the spread. They also would have covered 5 of the last 6 if given +24.
Again, we have brought it up all year, Vandy hasn't had a winning season in 25 years yet they have sprung upsets and played very well against the very best the SEC has thrown at them, at times. They have even given Florida a run for their money as recently as 2005 and 2006 with scores of 25-19 and 49-42. Both losses. Both very close. Again, this is significant because we want to see if the talent that Vanderbilt can put on the field is capable of competing with the talent that Florida puts on the field. We don't have to look far to get that answer as illustrated above and it's a big yes. So why not in a year that may be the best in 25 years for Vandy?
Of course it never hurts to have other motivational and psychological factors on your side and it just so happens we do in this game. Let's start with a potential flat spot for the Gators. Yeah, they destroyed Georgia last week in a game that Georgia really never had a chance in even before the game started. That was a HUGE revenge affair that Florida was sky high for. Once that game started going Florida's way the snowball affect took over. They could play next week and you'd see a much different game. But it is what it is and the point is, Florida was Sky High. It's tough to get college kids sky high week after week. Especially for an opponent like Vanderbilt. There's no revenge, nothing special, it's just Vanderbilt. It's a natural flat spot.
Vandy on the other hand has plenty to be excited about. They are getting all kinds of attention not generally given to Vanderbilt football. The ESPN crew will be there once again, and it's a night time, prime time affair with the nation watching. We mention this because it does matter. Realize that a team can play way over their heads under the right circumstances. Those circumstances being, a huge game with plenty of SEC significance, as both teams still in the hunt, as well as the aforementioned National TV audience. Here's a direct quote from one of the Vandy Captains :
"We're excited about being at home you know. ESPN's coming again, it's a night game, we're excited. It's good for the campus life and community around here, so we're excited about it. Nationally televised game again, we're going to be fired up and ready to go."
Vanderbilt will win at least 6 games this year and will go to a Bowl game for the first time in 25 years (they have Kentucky, Tenn and Wake Forest left). It would be wild if they could accomplish that against Florida. That would really make this a season to remember. Having come close before, it's not out of the question. Either way you have to assume this will be their best effort to date this year. Vanderbilt has the type of team to keep this one within the number. They haven't allowed more than 24 points in a game all year long. At home they haven't given up more than 21. They don't have the horses on offense to go toe to toe with the Gators (although they did go toe to toe 3 years ago) but they do have a defense that's comparable.
Huge game, huge crowd, excitement on campus, potential Gator letdown, best Vandy team in years, a good defense, looking for a Bowl game, tight games in the past, it all adds up to a game that ends up being closer than the big spot. Vanderbilt + 24
1* Georgia Tech +4 over North Carolina
This is a game we were on the fence with all week as far as making it a key release. What keeps us from pulling the trigger here and boosting the rating on this game is that North Carolina has had an extra week to prepare for the Georgia Tech option attack. Running the option in a conference not used to seeing it is what has given Tech a bit of an edge most weeks. One week is never enough to fully prepare. Otherwise, we're on Georgia Tech as the numbers certainly support a play. Both of these squads have only lost two games all year and are either winning or losing by small margins. They even both lost to Virginia Tech by the exact same score. In what amounts to an elimination game we see this one going down to the wire, unless the Tar Heels are able to get out in front early and bottle up that Tech offense as a result of the extra time to prepare. We'll make a small 1* play here. 1* Georgia Tech +4
Karl Garrett
New Orleans at CHARLOTTE +7'
Tonight in the NBA, I think New Orleans is laying a few too many points at Charlotte. No questioning who is the better team between the pair, but the Hornets aren't exactly dealing at 100%, and this is the type of a spot; road game off a home loss, and on a Friday night, that tends to give the visiting chalk some trouble.
Charlotte has covered 2 of their last 3 games, and after getting swept in last year's season series, both losses by double digits, expect the Bobcats to play with a little more intensity in this one.
Just not sold this early in the season, laying the big points on the road.
Mark the G-Man down for a play on the underdog Bobcats, as they keep this one close against the Hornets.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Toronto +3' at ATLANTA
NBA underdog winner tonight on the Raptors plus the points at Atlanta.
Both teams off to nice starts, as Toronto comes to town with a 3-1 ledger, but are coming off their first loss at home to Detroit. Atlanta is fresh off a big road win at New Orleans to improve to 3-0 this season both straight up, and against the spread.
The Raptors have yet to drop a road game early on, as they are 2-0 with wins and covers at Milwaukee, and Philadelphia.
Toronto has also been able to win 4 of the last 5 series meetings against Atlanta, and we like them to continue their series dominance tonight.
Take the points with the Raptors, as they give the Hawks all they can handle in this contest.
Play on T-O.
2♦ TORONTO
Bobby Maxwell
Toronto at ATLANTA -3
Atlanta is off to its best start in 11 years and this team showed what it can do in last season's playoffs when they extended Boston to seven games. They'll keep that momentum going tonight when they knock off the Raptors by about 10 points.
The Hawks have opened this season with three straight wins and are coming off an 87-79 upset of New Orleans Wednesday as an 8 1/2-point underdog. Atlanta is limiting the opposition to 84 points a game and 39.9 percent shooting from the field. They've got the talent to play tough defense and the home crowd has been behind the team this season.
Toronto is on some ATS slides, including 11-24 overall, 7-19 after a day of rest, 4-11 on the road and 1-10 in Friday contests. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four at home and 5-2 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference.
The Hawks beat the Raptors in the last matchup between these two last season, getting a 127-120 OT win as a 1 1/2-point favorite back on April 2. Both squads have talent, but the Hawks are going to make it four straight to start the season in front of the home fans. Play Atlanta.
2♦ ATLANTA
Dunkel
Game 115-116: Syracuse at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 77.631; Rutgers 89.372
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 12; 53
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 14 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+14 1/2); Over
Game 117-118: Wisconsin at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 89.424; Indiana 81.924
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 7 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2); Under
Game 119-120: Ohio State at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 101.664; Northwestern 94.798
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 7; 47
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 11; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+11); Over
Game 121-122: Purdue at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 83.925; Michigan State 97.486
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 13 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 9; 51
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-9); Under
Game 123-124: Georgia Tech at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 91.843; North Carolina 100.958
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 9; 36
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-3 1/2); Under
Game 125-126: Illinois at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 91.587; Western Michigan 83.532
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 8; 67
Vegas Line: Illinois by 7; 61
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-7); Over
Game 127-128: Virginia at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 90.507; Wake Forest 90.701
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+3 1/2); Over
Game 129-130: NC State at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 81.339; Duke 89.865
Dunkel Line: Duke by 8 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Duke by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-3 1/2); Under
Game 131-132: Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 109.865; Texas Tech 109.906
Dunkel Line: Even; 77
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 3 1/2; 74
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+3 1/2); Over
Game 133-134: Florida at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 112.107; Vanderbilt 92.356
Dunkel Line: Florida by 20; 56
Vegas Line: Florida by 24; 50
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+24); Over
Game 135-136: Arkansas at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 92.752; South Carolina 102.631
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 10; 48
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 12; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+12); Over
Game 137-138: Georgia at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 102.127; Kentucky 93.961
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 8; 41
Vegas Line: Georgia by 10 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10 1/2); Under
Game 139-140: Bowling Green at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 74.694; Ohio 75.519
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+3); Over
Game 141-142: San Diego State at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 61.831; BYU 103.530
Dunkel Line: BYU by 41 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: BYU by 36 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-36 1/2); Under
Game 143-144: Utah State at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 67.158; Boise State 107.887
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 40 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Boise State by 35; 50
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-35); Over
Game 145-146: Oklahoma at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 112.920; Texas A&M 89.316
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 23 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 27; 72
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+27); Under
Game 147-148: Army at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Army 71.854; Rice 86.206
Dunkel Line: Rice by 14 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Rice by 11; 59
Dunkel Pick: Rice (-11); Over
Game 149-150: Iowa State at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 77.430; Colorado 89.312
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 12; 50
Vegas Line: Colorado by 9 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-9 1/2); Under
Game 151-152: Memphis at SMU
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 77.104; SMU 73.255
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 4; 70
Vegas Line: Memphis by 2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-2); Over
Game 153-154: Kansas State at Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 85.676; Missouri 114.023
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 28 1/2; 78
Vegas Line: Missouri by 27; 74
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-27); Over
Game 155-156: Clemson at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 91.174; Florida State 100.656
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Florida State by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-5 1/2); Under
Game 157-158: Marshall at East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 79.765; East Carolina 83.572
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 4; 48
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 8; 44
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+8); Over
Game 159-160: Kansas at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 95.465; Nebraska 100.140
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 5; 66
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 1; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-1); Under
Game 161-162: Penn State at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 110.000; Iowa 98.981
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 11; 39
Vegas Line: Penn State by 7 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-7 1/2); Under
Game 163-164: Notre Dame at Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 91.636; Boston College 96.946
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-3); Under
Game 165-166: Wyoming at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 66.027; Tennessee 98.142
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 32; 36
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 27; 39
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-27); Under
Game 167-168: Alabama at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 105.106; LSU 102.819
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Alabama by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+3 1/2); Under
Game 169-170: Stanford at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 91.822; Oregon 102.261
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 10 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Oregon by 14; 54
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+14); Over
Game 171-172: Arizona State at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 88.980; Washington 78.862
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 10; 44
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 14 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+14 1/2); Under
Game 173-174: Hawaii at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 80.907; New Mexico State 75.739
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 5; 57
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-3); Over
Game 175-176: Tulane at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 72.799; Houston 87.417
Dunkel Line: Houston by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 16; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+16); Under
Game 177-178: Colorado State at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 78.971; Air Force 91.834
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 13; 45
Vegas Line: Air Force by 9 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-9 1/2); Under
Game 179-180: Oregon State at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 100.630; UCLA 94.688
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 6; 47
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 8; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+8); Under
Game 181-182: Arizona at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 100.651; Washington State 64.650
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 36; 64
Vegas Line: Arizona by 41; 59
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+41); Over
Game 183-184: Southern Mississippi at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 77.508; Central Florida 77.832
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+3); Under
Game 185-186: Baylor at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 87.312; Texas 119.591
Dunkel Line: Texas by 32; 70
Vegas Line: Texas by 27 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-27 1/2); Over
Game 187-188: Cincinnati at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 90.086; West Virginia 98.467
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 8 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-7); Over
Game 189-190: Louisville at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 87.013; Pittsburgh 95.555
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 55
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6); Under
Game 191-192: Michigan at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 82.039; Minnesota 92.940
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7 1/2); Under
Game 193-194: California at USC
Dunkel Ratings: California 97.602; USC 122.738
Dunkel Line: USC by 25; 48
Vegas Line: USC by 20 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-20 1/2); Under
Game 195-196: Louisiana Tech at San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 75.653; San Jose State 86.120
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 10 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (-7); Under
Game 197-198: New Mexico at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 84.452; UNLV 82.002
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 3 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+3 1/2); Under
Game 199-200: Western Kentucky at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 68.483; Troy 83.851
Dunkel Line: Troy by 15 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Troy by 16 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+16 1/2); Under
Game 201-202: North Texas at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 52.267; Florida Atlantic 76.569
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 24 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 22 1/2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-22 1/2); Over
Game 203-204: UTEP at UL-Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 78.050; UL-Lafayette 85.511
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 7 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 9; 72
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+9); Under
Game 205-206: Arkansas State at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 76.253; Florida International 78.669
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 2 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+2 1/2); Under
Game 207-208: UL-Monroe at Middle Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 69.840; Middle Tennessee State 77.491
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 7 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 4 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-4 1/2); Under
Dave Malinsky
Arkansas @ South Carolina
PICK: 4* Arkansas +13
There will be a bit of a redundancy to this one, but after cashing 5* tickets with Arkansas in each of the first two appearances for Bobby Petrino’s team as an S.E.C. road underdog, we are able to go to the well with outstanding value once again, with the markets now offering +13 across the board. And in many ways it is the same logic now that we used earlier – a young Razorback team transitioning to a new coaching staff was in no position to take on the likes of Alabama, Texas and Florida in a three-week span, one of the toughest scheduling cycles we have ever charted. But that led to a complete over-reaction as the markets down-graded them off of those results, and that is a big part of why this line is so far off of where it should be.
Since that awful three-week cycle it has been a 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS run for Arkansas, with the two outright losses coming by a combined three points, and note that those games were all against difficult competition (three of the four teams will definitely be in bowl games, while Auburn still harbors hopes). Now we do not need for them to take this game to the wire, but merely make enough plays to hang around, and that is not asking much at all vs. a pedestrian South Carolina offense that is not a threat to open much breathing room. With a top-notch runner in Michael Smith (987 yards at 5.3 is remarkable considering the schedule he has been up against), and the maturing of Casey Dick in the Petrino system (he has some very talented young receivers to work with), the Razorback offense brings much more potential to the table then their favored opponents in this one.
South Carolina is only averaging 20.5 points in S.E.C. play, but in truth the offense has been even worse than that – there were three touchdowns scored directly by either the defense or special teams in those six games, and in half of those games they could not reach 290 total yards. The OL does not get much push, with leading RB’s Mike Davis and Eric Baker getting amic counts of 3.5 and 3.6 per rush, and even though we are now into November Steve Spurrier has not been able to get either Chris Smelley or Stephen Garcia to take over as the #1 QB. At this point he has not even named a starter for this week, saying that it will be based on who looks best in pre-game warmups (from the Old Ball Coach - “We really think to maximize our team we need to play both of them. ... because our offense has stunk.”).
The South Carolina offensive struggles play to our favor in more ways than one here – not only are the Gamecocks hard-pressed to score, particularly in terms of an inability to make big plays (their longest touchdown of the season was just 34 yards, and they only have one play of more than 50 yards), but because both QB’s have been mistake-prone, Spurrier may go as conservative with a lead here as he did vs. Tennessee last week, when there were 44 running plays vs. only 20 passes. That helps to keep the underdog in the hunt at a most generous pointspread.
Tony Karpinski
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Oklahoma State +3.5
Calling for a Texas Tech letdown off of that scintillating win over Texas is an easy thing to do – the Red Raiders brought as much passion and preparation to that game as perhaps any team all season and in the schools history. And the fact that the victory came in such exhausting fashion makes it even more difficult for them to get back to that level of play this week. From a situational standpoint however I see OSU with a big edge, especially getting over a field goal. Texas actually dealt with its success as well as any team in recent memory but their fourth straight game against top-notch competition finally caught up to them last week. I don’t expect the Red Raiders to be nearly as sharp this week after the amount of attention they will no questionably receive throughout the week. Oklahoma State was also one drive away from beating Texas in Austin and I feel they are poised to close the deal in Lubbock with their defense and great rushing game to keep Tech off the field. Take the points and look for the upset Saturday night.
Craig Trapp
Virginia vs. Wake Forest
Play:Virginia +144
VA has been playing much better as of late than has WF. Kind of surprised this game was not a pick em. Well I will take the Cavs and take the extra money. VA can run the ball and control the clock. WF tries to run but just has not been able to move the ball consistenly the last 3 weeks. Take the road dog and fatten up your wallet here. SCORE VA 24 - WF 13