Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Wake Forest -3.5
Miami put an end to Virginia 's 4-game winning streak last week and that opens the door for Wake Forest to take the Cavs down again at home this week. Virginia edged out Wake by one point last season and the Demon Deacons will be out for revenge. Virginia has not played well on the road this season, scoring only 12.3 ppg while giving up 31. Virginia is just 5-16 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992 and 10-23 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better since 1992. Lay the points with Wake Forest at home.
LT Profits
Florida International +2.5
The Florida International Golden Panthers had a five-game winning streak against the spread snapped last week at Louisiana-Lafayette, but we look for them to pull the mild upset returning home here vs. Arkansas State. The Indians are just 1-3 straight up on the road this season, with the lone road win being a shocker at Texas A&M on opening weekend. However, that was their only road win in their last 11 road games extending back to the tail end of 2006, and Arkansas State has been outscored by an average of -12.3 points in those 11 road contests. Now FIU is averaging a mediocre 21.3 points per game this season, but keep in mind that they were held to 10 points or less in three brutal non-conference matchups with Kansas, Iowa and South Florida. They did put up 35 points in a road upset at Toledo, and the offense has been fine since the start of Sun Belt Conference play, averaging 29.0 points per contest. Finally, this is a triple revenge spot for FIU, who just missed in a 27-24 loss at Arkansas State last year. This time, they get over the hump at home.
Pick: Florida International +2.5
SportsInsights
Wisconsin vs Indiana
Wisconsin looked like they were coming alive last weekend against Michigan State. The Badgers ground game dominated the Spartans, racking up 281 yards. The defense even held MSU to a total of 25 yards on the ground, including a season-low 54 yards from Javon Ringer (152 average prior to game.) It didn't end that way though, as Michigan State kicked a game-winning field goal with seven seconds remaining. The Badgers do feature a pair of quality tailbacks in P.J. Hill and John Clay, who each rushed for over 100 yards last week. Quarterback Dustin Sherer will make his fourth consecutive start, the last two of which he hasn't thrown an interception.
Indiana allowed Central Michigan backup quarterback Brian Brunner to have a career day last week, as he threw for 485 yards and four touchdowns. The bright spots were that the Hoosier defense only allowed 37 yards on the ground and the offense looked pretty good while piling up 485 total yards. Those weren't enough as they still lost 37-34. Indiana features a bend-don't-break pass defense that is designed to allow the short pass, but to keep opponents out of the end zone.
The Badgers opened as 10-point favorites at Pinnacle, but the line dropped down to Wisconsin -9.5 in the middle of the week. This move happened despite the Badgers receiving 71% of spread bets and a whopping 86% of parlay bets. That's an indication of Smart Money backing the Hoosiers. The line has since climbed back to 10. We like Indiana getting those points at home, so we'll follow the Smart Money.
Indiana +10
Cincinnati vs West Virginia
Cincinnati has been forced to use three quarterbacks this season, and Junior Tony Pike is in his second stint after breaking his non-throwing arm earlier in the season. Pike's broken arm is now being held together by a plate and six screws, and he is playing with a soft cast on the arm. He had a great effort in last week's 24-10 win over South Florida, in which he went 20-for-28 for 281 yards and two touchdowns. The Bearcats utilize a spread offense much like West Virginia, but they are more successful in the passing attack. The defense is allowing an average of 334.1 yards per game.
West Virginia struggled early in the year as they were ranked in the top-10 to start the season. Two losses in their first three games knocked the Mountaineers out of the rankings. Since then they have reeled off five consecutive wins and rejoined the top 25 at No. 25. Part of the turn around comes from quarterback Pat White becoming healthy and gaining confidence. White has led the Mountaineers to 34 and 35 points in the last two games. WVU's defense is allowing 308.8 yards per game, but they are holding opposing offenses to only 14.75 points per game.
West Virginia opened as 8-point favorites at Pinnacle. The Mountaineers are receiving 71% of spread bets and 86% of parlay bets from the public, but the line has moved to West Virginia -7 despite this backing. That combination created a pair of Smart Money plays and a pair of Steam Moves on the Bearcats. We'll like the chances of Cincinnati, and we'll take them with the points.
Cincinnati +7
Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma State has fallen a little under the radar after losing a close game at then-No. 1 Texas. With teams like Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma grabbing the headlines in the Big 12, The Cowboys have quietly racked up an 8-1 record with a strong balance on both sides of the ball. They routed Iowa State 59-17 last week, and racked up 682 yards of total offense in the process. Sophomore wide receiver Dez Bryant is second in FBS with 1,054 yards receiving, and is tied for the nation's lead with 15 receiving touchdowns. The Cowboys are fifth in the nation in rushing, averaging 273.6 yards per game.
Texas Tech is coming off what is perhaps the school's biggest win ever. The home upset of then-No. 1 Texas vaulted the Red Raiders up to No. 2 in the BCS, and has them poised for a Big 12 title and a ticket to the national championship game. Tech has always had a great offense, and this year is no different with Heisman hopefuls at quarterback and wide receiver. The combination of QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree is a lethal one for opposing defenses. Harrell has thrown only five interceptions on the season against 30 touchdowns, 15 of which were to Crabtree. Texas Tech leads the nation with an average of 430 passing yards per game. What makes this season's Red Raiders a contender is its improved defense, which leads the Big 12 with only 349.6 yards per game.
Both teams feature high-powered offenses ranked nationally in the top-10 and stout defenses that are among Big 12 leaders. They have each played ranked opponents previously on their schedule. This should be a good prime-time match up in the Big 12. At Pinnacle the line opened at Texas Tech -3.5, but quickly dropped down the -3 before climbing back up to -3.5 on Thursday. The Red Raiders are being backed by 70% of the public's spread bets and 64% of parlay bets. This heavy percentage and the early line movement triggered a number of Smart Money plays on the Cowboys. We'll follow the Smart Money and take the points for Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State +3.5
Larry Ness
Ohio St. -10.5 vs Northwestern
There will be no BCS title game in 7-2 Ohio State's future this year, as Penn State's 13-6 win at Columbus on October 25 put an end to OSU's two-year BCS title-game run. Maybe that's a good thing, as the Buckeyes lost last year to LSU (38-24) and Florida (41-14). Surprisingly, Northwestern takes an identical 7-2 record into Saturday's home game with the Buckeyes. Northwestern opened the '08 season by going 5-0 and last week's upset at Minnesota was the Wildcats' seventh win this year. It came despite the fact that RB Tyrell Sutton did not play (out for the season) nor did the team's starting QB, CJ Bacher. Junior Mike Kafka played surprisingly well vs the Gophers, completing 12-of-16 passes. Bacher may play here but he hasn't had a good season, tossing 10 TDs and 11 INTs. Whoever plays at QB, they'll get little help at RB as Conteh is the team's top rusher now that Sutton is out, with just 235 YR on the season and a 3.2 YPC average (update: Conteh is expected to miss, leaving NW without a running game!). Northwestern will face an Ohio State pass 'D' which ranks 8th nationally in passing efficiency (56.1 percent completions / 8 TDs / 12 INTs) and a rush 'D' which has allowed 104.1 YPG, 3.6 YPC and only four TDs. It will be interesting to see if we see some more of Todd Boeckman at QB for Ohio State, down the stretch. The senior lost his job to super-frosh Terrelle Pryor earlier this year but Pryor's numbers have been mediocre since his four-TD pass game vs Troy on September 20. Before throwing for 226 yards vs Penn State, Pryor had averaged just 104.6 YPG in his four games since the Troy game and in the five games since that win (including the PSU game), Pryor has just two TDs passes. RB Wells was averaging 123.8 YPG (6.1 YPC) in his five games prior to Penn State, but was held to 55 yards on 22 carries by the Nittany Lions. While Penn State is 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year, let's note that the Buckeyes were favored in those games by 19, 20, 21 and 24 points. In this game, they opened as 11-point favorites, which is a much more reasonable spread. Ohio State is 32-2 SU vs Northwestern since 1964, including 14-1 in Evanston. The Buckeyes led 45-0 at the half in last year's 58-7 win in Columbus, with Northwestern's lone score coming on a kickoff return TD. The talent-gap is still huge and with a week to 'recover' from the Penn Sate loss, I expect the Buckeyes to roll. Lay the points.
Tom Stryker
Syracuse vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers -13.5
After a slow start, Rutgers has picked up steam lately. The Scarlet Knights enter this contest off a week of rest and impressive wins over Connecticut and Pittsburgh. This one has all the ingredients needed for another Rutgers victory as well.
Syracuse hasn’t been very competitive in this series. The Orangemen are 0-3 SU and ATS in the last three meetings and have lost by the combined score of 107-30! To make matters worse, the ‘Cuse stands 5-22 SU and 9-17 ATS in their last 27 games including a weak 2-21 SU and 7-16 ATS priced as a dog in this role. With those two parameters combined and the Orange running without rest, this team trend crashes to a miserable 1-18 SU and 4-15 ATS!
Foreign soil hasn’t been kind to SU either. As a guest, the Orangemen stand 12-38 SU and 19-31 ATS in their last 50 games including a disturbing 2-21 SU and 7-16 ATS in this role running against a conference foe.
In addition to the team trends listed, one of my best late-season systems favors Rutgers in this Big East battle. This technical situation backs high-priced home favorites late in the regular season and it boasts a remarkable 60-23 ATS record for 72.2 percent. Because of the strength of value of this system, I won’t be able to provide you with all the parameters that make it pop. But, I will let you know that it backs four teams on Saturday: Boise State, Florida Atlantic, South Carolina and Rutgers.
After exploding for 54 points against Pittsburgh in their last game, the Scarlet Knights should have no trouble at all lighting up a Syracuse defense that has surrendered an average of 33.1 points and 427.2 total yards per game! Take Rutgers!
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Nebraska pk
Nebraska remembers what Kansas did to them last year in Lawrence well. The Jayhawks put 76 points on the board on their way to a blowout win. It's time for payback when the Huskers host KU at Lincoln this time around. Getting blown out at Oklahoma last week will fuel Nebraska 's fire even more. All you have to do is look to one game to see how much Nebraska has improved and that Texas Tech. The Red Raiders got a major scare from the Huskers only winning 37-31 at home while Texas Tech crushed Kansas 63-21 on the road. We'll play on any team (NEBRASKA) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team as this system is 38-13 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take Big Red!
John Martin
1 Unit on Ohio +3
The Ohio Bobcats are a home dog Saturday and showing solid value in this role. Ohio has had 10 days to prepare for this home meeting with Bowling Green after playing last Tuesday. In their last game, Ohio out-gained Buffalo in total yards but came out on the short end of the stick by committing 5 turnovers. You can bet the focal point of practice heading into this game has been turnovers. Ohio will take care of the ball Saturday and come out on top against a Bowling Green team that is just 4-5 on the season. BGSU has no business being the favorite in this match-up. Ohio won 38-27 at Bowling Green last season despite being a 7-point dog. Ohio has come out on the short end of many close games, and their 2-7 record could easily be reversed to 7-2 if they’d quit turning the ball over. Ohio gets back to what they do best Saturday, and that’s running the rock. This will keep the ball in their possession and create big plays in the passing game. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. The Bobcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Bowling Green is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Cash in with Ohio as the underdog.
Tony George
Louisville +6.5 vs Pittsburgh
The Panthers have given up 36 ppg the last 3 weeks, plain and simple. Pitt QB Stull banged up and day to day with head and neck injuries. HUGE emotional OT win at Notre Dame for Pitt last week. Like to go against teams that had an emotional game the week before, especially OT games. The Cards lost to Syracuse and will want to atone for a bad bad loss this weekend. The Cards match up well against Pitt and with the Panthers offense limited to the ground game and Louisville having the ability to move the ball through the air and score points, I see a tight on here at Pitt. The Panthers have managed 5 TD passes all year, which gets you nowhere when playing from behind or in a tight game needing to move the chains. The Cards have the better defensive numbers and score more points getting a TD? I will take the points in a surprising cover for the Cards here.
Play on Louisville
Ted Sevransky
Colorado St. @ Air Force
PICK: Over 51
It’s not hard to make a case for any Colorado State game to go Over the total these days, and this game is no exception. Steve Fairchild has experienced considerable success in his first year on the job as the Rams head coach, after disastrous 4-8 and 3-9 seasons in the final two years of the Sonny Lubick era. Colorado State has already beaten last year’s win total, in large part due to the rapidly improving offense. The Rams have scored 38+ three times in their last five games. The two games where they didn’t reach that number were against the elite level defenses of Utah and TCU, both on display this past Thursday Night. There’s no shame being shut down by those two D’s. Air Force’s defense isn’t in the least bit comparable to either TCU or Utah’s.
And all evidence points towards this offense getting better and better as the season progresses. In their last two ballgames, Colorado State has scored 80 points against BYU and San Diego State, hanging more than 900 yards of offense in the process. Quarterback Billy Farris is avoiding turnovers like the plague while completing 63% of his passes for more than 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Rashaun Greer, Dion Morton and Kory Sperry have combined for 100 catches between them, gaining nearly 1700 yards in the process. Running back Gartrell Johnson has become a force between the tackles, ranked third in the Mountain West in rushing yards. A weaker Colorado State running game rushed for 224 yards, 5.2 ypc against Air Force last year, and with the passing game improved in ’08 as well, we can expect the Rams to exceed their offensive numbers in the ’08 rematch.
The Falcons take a step down in defensive class here, after facing tough stop units against New Mexico and Army in their last two ballgames. Colorado State ranks 107th in the nation against the run; 98th against the pass. We’re talking about Air Force here, so the pass defense isn’t much of a concern, but the run defense will certainly be put to the test against the Falcons emerging talent at quarterback, frosh Tim Jefferson, and his stable of running backs.
In three road games this year, the Rams have allowed 42, 34 and 42 points. Their kick and punt coverage has been spotty as well, repeatedly giving their opponents short fields. And that run defense has been downright awful. Two weeks ago, a San Diego State offense that had only reached 80 ‘true’ rushing yards once all year notched 226 yards on the ground against Colorado State; more than 6.6 yards per carry. Last week, the pass happy BYU offense ran all over this D. Three weeks ago, Utah gained more than 8.8 yards per carry on the ground against the Rams. There’s little reason to think that Air Force won’t have similar success. On a clear, mild afternoon in Colorado Springs, look for both of these offenses to march up and down the field, sending this game flying Over the total. 2* Take the Over.
Colin Cowherd
(29-17-2 YTD)
California +22
Alabama -3.5
Penn St. -7.5
Oklahoma St. +3.5
Allen Eastman
CFB RECORD 28-17 +$4970.00
$1200.00 -106 Wake Forest (-3.5) over Virginia
The Demon Deacons are getting healthy and I think that they are ready to put a beating down on a Virginia team that has been playing way, way above its head over the last month. Besides a curious win over Georgia Tech, the Cavaliers have not played well on the road this year, losing at Duke and at Connecticut by a combined 76-13 score. I think that Virginia’s overtime loss to Miami at home last week has kind of burst their bubble. UVA has been outgained in two of its last three games and are facing a team looking for revenge from last year’s one-point loss. Wake Forest is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games against a team with a winning record while the Cavaliers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games. Wake Forest has covered three of the last four meetings and I think that they will easily manage a double-digit win in this key ACC clash.
$600.00 -106 Alabama (-3) over LSU
The Crimson Tide have the muscle up front to counter the strength of the Tigers. But the key to this play is that Alabama has a severe edge at the quarterback position. That's been a drag on LSU all season and I think it will come into play here as well. LSU's weakness is in the secondary and I think that John Parker Wilson will have little trouble moving the ball against the Tigers secondary. LSU has gotten hammered by both of the top-tier SEC teams (Florida, Georgia) that they've played. I think they should be getting at least a touchdown here.
$400.00-107 Georgia (-11.5) over Kentucky
The Bulldogs were humiliated in Jacksonville last weekend but I have confidence in Mark Richt’s ability to get his team refocused. With the exception of a game at South Carolina, all of UGA’s wins this year have been by double-digits. Kentucky has been outgained in four of its last five games and I think their 6-3 overall record is a little bloated. I think that the Wildcats’ shaky quarterback position will come back to haunt them in this game and the Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
$200.00 -108 Nebraska (-1.5) over Kansas
I think that this line is an indicator that we are on the right side. Kansas is the better team and is ranked, but the oddsmakers have instilled the Huskers as a small favorite. Why is that? I think it's because the Huskers are primed for a signature win. This line steamed from its opening of +3. The Huskers lost by 37 in Lawrence last year and I think they will get revenge.
King Creole
Vanderbilt +24 vs Florida
BEST and WORST profitable ATS situations based on 2008 results ONLY:
6-1 ATS for conference teams off a SU favorite loss vs an opponent off BB SUATS wins
(Play ON: VANDERBILT vs Florida)
12-4 ATS for conference teams off a SU favorite loss vs an opponent off a DD SU loss
(Play ON: HOUSTON vs Tulane and HAWAII vs New Mexico St)
4-10 ATS for conference teams off a SU dog win vs an opponent off BB SU losses
(Play AGAINST: MEMPHIS vs Smu and LA MONROE vs Mid Tenn St).
0-4 ATS for conference teams off a SU dog win vs opponents off BB SU wins
(Play AGAINST: NORTH TEXAS vs Florida Atl and SYRACUSE vs Rutgers)
1-6 ATS for .500 > teams after scoring 3 < points
(Play AGAINST: EAST CAROLINA vs Marshall and ARKANSAS ST vs Florida Intl).
0-5 ATS for conference teams after scoring 50+ points vs an opponent off BB SUATS wins
(Play AGAINST: OKLAHOMA vs Texas A&M)
Nelly
UL-Lafayette – over UTEP
The Miners came close to a big win last week but the defense has been a huge liability. UTEP has allowed 126 points in the last two games and UL-Lafayette has emerged as the leader in the Sun Belt. The Ragin’ Cajuns are rushing for over 300 yards per game and it has led to a perfect 4-0 S/U and ATS record in the conference. Getting the opportunity to host a non-conference game will not be taken lightly and Lafayette beat Kent earlier this season at home and played close at Illinois. UL-Lafayette does not have a strong defense but UTEP has a horrendous defense, allowing 484 yards per game, good enough for third worst in the nation. UTEP is allowing close to 40 points per game and in three road games the Miners have allowed 156 points. The run defense is allowing 210 yards per game and Lafayette should have no problem moving the ball.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(8) Oklahoma State (8-1, 8-0 ATS) at (2) Texas Tech (9-0, 4-3 ATS)
A week after toppling top-ranked Texas with a stunning last-second victory, things don’t get any easier for unbeaten Texas Tech as it welcomes the eighth-ranked Cowboys to Lubbock in today’s marquee game.
The Red Raiders jumped out to a 22-3 lead against Texas, then gave up 30 of the next 40 points, including surrendering the go-ahead touchdown with 1:29 to play. But QB Graham Harrell led the Tech offense on a 62-yard drive culminating with a 28-yard TD pass to Michael Crabtree with one second remaining to pull out a 39-33 victory as a 3½-point home underdog. The Red Raiders – off to a 9-0 start for the first time since 1938 – outgained the Longhorns 579-374, and Harrell was spectacular in completing 36 of 53 passes for 474 yards, two TDs and no INTs.
Oklahoma State bounced back from its first defeat of the season – a 28-24 setback at Texas as an 11½-point road underdog – with last week’s 59-17 rout of Iowa State, easily cashing as a 29½-point home favorite to improve to 9-0 ATS going back to last year’s bowl victory over Indiana. Against Iowa State, the Cowboys piled up a mindboggling 682 total yards (263 rushing) while allowing 362 (122 rushing), and QB Zac Robinson finished 18-for-27 for 395 yards with five TDs and one INT, and he also had 66 rushing yards on just six carries.
Texas Tech leads the Big 12 North standings at 5-0, with Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State one game back at 4-1. Overall, those top four teams in the Big 12 North are a combined 33-3.
The home team has dominated this rivalry over the last decade, winning nine of 10 meetings, including the last six in a row. Last year in Stillwater, Okla., the Cowboys won a 49-45 shootout as a six-point home underdog with the teams combining for an astounding 1,328 total yards. Oklahoma State has covered the spread in the last three meetings (all as an underdog) after the Red Raiders had gone 5-0 ATS in the previous five.
Additionally, in this rivalry, the host is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five and Tech is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six at home against the Cowboys, who haven’t won in Lubbock since 1944.
As part of their ongoing 9-0 ATS hot streak, the Cowboys have cashed in all five Big 12 games and they’re 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma State has also cashed in six of its last seven on the road (3-0 ATS on the highway this year). Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams and 4-2 ATS in its last six on artificial turf, but 2-4 ATS in its last six following a spread-cover.
Texas Tech ranks third nationally in scoring offense (47 points per game), second in total offense (559.3 total ypg), first in passing offense (424.6 ypg) and third in passing TDs (34). Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (45.3 ppg, 5th), total offense (512 ypg, 7th) and rushing offense (273.6 ypg, 5th). Both offenses are guided by standout QBs in Texas Tech’s Harrell (70.7 completion rate, 3,621 yards, 30 TDs, five INTs) and OSU’s Robinson (69 percent, 2,085 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs; 341 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs).
Defensively, both teams have been solid if not spectacular. The Red Raiders are giving up 22.4 points and 349.6 yards per game (98.7 rushing ypg), while Oklahoma State yields 21 points and 357.8 yards per contest (117.2 rushing ypg).
The over is 17-7 in Oklahoma State’s last 24 lined games in November, but the under is 7-0 in its last seven on the road and 5-2 in its last seven conference contests. For Texas Tech, the over is 3-1-1 in its last five overall (all against Big 12 foes), but the under is 5-1-1 in its last seven at home. Lastly, the under is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, with last year’s contest being the one that soared over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(1) Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) at (15) LSU (6-2, 2-5 ATS)
Alabama coach Nick Saban makes his much-anticipated return to LSU when he leads the top-ranked Crimson Tide into Tiger Stadium for an SEC West showdown.
The Tide stepped out of conference last Saturday and throttled Arkansas State 35-0 as a 23½-point home chalk, ascending to the top spot in the rankings when Texas lost later that evening at Texas Tech. Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 64-9, outgaining Arkansas State and Tennessee by a combined 392 total yards.
LSU erased the bitter taste left by a 52-38 home shellacking by Georgia with last week’s 35-10 non-conference win over Tulane, but the Tigers failed to cash as a 30-point home favorite. Les Miles’ squad has alternated wins and losses its last five outings, going 1-4 ATS overall and 0-3 ATS home.
The Tigers have won five straight meetings in this rivalry (3-1-1 ATS), with three of those wins (2-0-1 ATS) occurring when Saban was the head man at LSU. Last year – his first at Alabama – Saban and the Tide gave the Tigers a game, eventually falling 41-34 as a 6½-point home underdog. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes, ‘Bama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Baton Rouge and the visitor is on a 12-2-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Alabama, which was a pointspread disaster a season ago, is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall and has cashed in all four of its road games this year. However, the Crimson Tide are just 1-5 ATS in their last six in November. Meanwhile, LSU presents nothing but negative ATS trends, including 1-4 overall, 1-8 at home (0-4 this year), 3-9-1 in SEC play and 3-7-1 following a non-cover.
For Alabama, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in November and 5-2 in SEC play. Conversely, the Tigers carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 12-4 overall, 7-3 at home, 10-3 on grass, 5-1 in November, 10-2 in SEC contests and 9-2 against winning teams. Finally, the last two meetings between these schools have topped the total after the previous four stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA
(12) Ohio State (7-2, 2-6 ATS) at Northwestern (7-2, 4-4 ATS)
After a week off, the Buckeyes return to action against the surprise of the Big Ten when they invade Ryan Field in Evanston, Ill. for a matchup with Northwestern.
Ohio State had its five-game winning streak (2-3 ATS) snapped two weeks ago in a 13-6 home loss to Penn State, giving up 10 fourth-quarter points and failing to cash as a 1½-point ‘dog. The Buckeyes have won two straight on the road (2-0 ATS) in conference action, including a 45-7 rout of Michigan State back on Oct. 18 as 3½-point favorites. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor has completed 65.2 percent of his throws for 879 yards, six TDs and three INTs, but committed a costly turnover in the final period against Penn State that led to a Nittany Lions’ touchdown.
Northwestern got a gift-wrapped win Saturday returning an interception 48 yards for a touchdown with 12 seconds left to beat Minnesota 24-17, cashing as a 7½-point road underdog. In the victory – the school’s first over a ranked opponent since 2005 – the Wildcats got 217 yards rushing from backup QB Mike Kafka who will be on the sideline today if starter C.J. Bacher is deemed healthy enough to go.
Ohio State has won the last three meetings (3-0 ATS) against Northwestern and nine of the last 10 (5-4-1 ATS). Last season, the Buckeyes cruised to a 58-7 win, easily cashing as 23½-point favorites. Since Northwestern’s 33-27 overtime win over Ohio State in 2004, the Buckeyes have outscored the Wildcats 160-24 in the three straight wins.
The Buckeyes are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall and 2-5 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record, but otherwise they are on ATS tears of 13-4 on the road, 24-10 in Big Ten games and 7-3 in November contests. Northwestern is on ATS slides of 19-40-1 after a straight-up win and 0-6 after a spread-cover.
For Ohio State, the under is 6-2 in its last eight overall, but the over is 4-1 in its last five November games and 5-1 its last six outings on grass. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have stayed under the total in nine of their last 13 overall and eight of their last 10 in November. Lastly, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(22) Georgia Tech (7-2, 6-1 ATS) at (19) North Carolina (6-2, 4-3 ATS)
It’s a key showdown in the ACC’s Coastal Division as the division-leading Yellow Jackets travel to Chapel Hill, N.C., to take on North Carolina.
The Tar Heels had last weekend off after beating then-No. 23 Boston College 45-24 on Oct. 25 as a three-point home favorite. QB Cameron Sexton threw for 238 yards and three TDs against Boston College and WR Hakeem Nicks had 139 yards receiving and scored a career-high four TDs. North Carolina is now bowl-eligible and off to its best start since 1997, but the Heels still trail the Yellow Jackets in the race for the division title.
Georgia Tech beat Florida State 31-28 a week ago, recovering a fumble in the end zone with 45 seconds left to secure the victory while pushing as a three-point chalk. The Yellow Jackets’ rushing attack leads the conference at 242.3 yards per game, and RB Jonathan Dwyer, who averages 99.9 yards rushing per game, rattled off 145 yards and two TDs on 13 carries and against the Seminoles.
The ‘Jackets have won three straight against the Tar Heels, but they’ve failed to cash in the last four, and they’re 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings (5-5 ATS). Last year, Tech scored a 27-25 win but fell well short as 10½-point home favorites. The last time these two met in Chapel Hill, Georgia Tech prevailed 7-0 win as a 13½-point favorite.
Georgia Tech is on ATS runs of 5-1-1 overall, 5-0 on the road and 4-1-1 in ACC games. North Carolina is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 against teams with a winning record, but just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a spread-cover.
For the Yellow Jackets, the under is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 in ACC contests and 5-0 after a straight-up win. However, for the ‘Heels, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 10-4 after a SU victory and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Finally, the under has been the play four of the last five series meetings between these schools in Chapel Hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Virginia (5-4, 4-4 ATS) at Wake Forest (5-3, 3-5 ATS)
The Cavaliers will try to make it four in a row over Wake Forest when they travel to Groves Stadium in Winston-Salem, N.C., in an ACC matchup.
Both teams are within striking distance of their respective division leaders, but the Cavs let one get away last week against Miami, falling 24-17 in overtime as one-point home favorites. Virginia had won and covered four in a row prior to the loss to the ‘Canes, as the Cavs blew a late 17-10 lead then fumbled on their lone possession in overtime to cost them the game. The defense gave up 448 total yards to the Hurricanes, including 197 on the ground.
Wake Forest snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 overtime home win over Duke last weekend, failing as an eight-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have failed to cash in three straight games and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. The offense scored 33 points after only getting 34 total points in four previous ACC contests. QB Riley Skinner threw for 232 yards and a TD in the win, and for the season he has 1,576 passing yards, eight TDs and four INTs.
Virginia has won three straight (1-2 ATS) and nine of 10 (4-5-1 ATS) against Wake Forest, including a 17-16 win a season ago, narrowly missing as a 1½-point favorite. The Cavaliers haven’t been to Winston-Salem since 2002 when they scored a 38-34 win as 1½-point favorites, one of four straight wins (3-0-1 ATS) for the Cavs at Wake Forest.
Virginia is just 7-15 ATS in its last 22 road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five November games, but the Cavaliers are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-10 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 overall and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest has failed to cash in four of its last five but is on ATS runs of 15-7 against teams with a winning record, 9-2 after a non-cover and 7-3 after a SU win.
For the Cavs, the under is on runs of 5-1 overall, 7-3-1 on the road, 21-7-3 in ACC contests and 10-3 in November. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are on under streaks of 18-8-1 at home, 4-1 in ACC play and 5-1 overall, but the over is 4-0 in their last four November contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Clemson (4-4, 1-5 ATS) at (24) Florida State (6-2, 3-3 ATS)
Clemson, which hasn’t won consecutive games over Division I-A opponents all season, looks to end that streak when it visits Tallahassee for an ACC clash with the Seminoles.
The Tigers snapped a three-game SU and an eight-game ATS losing skid with last week’s 27-21 victory at Boston College, cashing as a three-point road underdog for its first win and cover since coach Tommy Bowden resigned on Oct. 13. Clemson rushed for just 87 yards in the victory, but RB C.J. Spiller was a one-man wrecking crew with 55 rushing yards, 105 receiving yards and 64 yards on a kickoff return.
Florida State had its four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) snapped in last week’s 31-28 loss at Georgia Tech, pushing as a three-point ‘dog. RB Jermaine Thomas rushed for 130 yards against the Yellow Jackets, and the freshman is expected see more time in the backfield today for Bobby Bowden’s squad, which averages 193 rushing yards per game.
The Tigers owned the annual Bowden Bowl matching son Tommy against father Bobby, winning four of the last five SU and ATS, including going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three dating back to 2003. Last year, Clemson prevailed 24-18 as a 3½-point home underdog, and the last time the Tigers were in Tallahassee they got a 27-20 win as a four-point pup. The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10.
Clemson is on a bevy of negative ATS trends, including 1-8 overall, 1-5 in ACC games, 0-4 after a straight-up win and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games but just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 November contests.
For the Tigers, the under is on streaks of 8-1 overall, 5-1 in conference games, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 6-1 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the under is 17-7 in Florida State’s last 24 November outings, but otherwise the ‘Noles are on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall and 10-3 after a straight-up loss. Also, the over is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in this rivalry and 4-0 in the last four clashes at Florida State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(6) Oklahoma (8-1, 6-2 ATS) at Texas A&M (4-5 SU and ATS)
Oklahoma and its high-octane offense invade College Station for a Big 12 North clash with the suddenly surging Aggies.
The Sooners throttled Nebraska 62-28 as a 21-point home favorite last week, and since a 45-35 loss to Texas, Bob Stoops’ squad has put up 45, 58 and 62 points, with 128 of those 165 points being scored in the first half. Against the Huskers, Oklahoma led 35-0 after the first quarter, finished with a 508-418 edge in total offense and forced four turnovers, while QB Sam Bradford (19-for-27, 311 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) had another outstanding day.
Texas A&M began the Big 12 season with three straight double-digit losses but has bounced back the last two weeks with victories over Iowa State (49-35 on the road) and Colorado (24-17 at home). The Aggies have also followed up an 0-4 ATS slump with three straight spread-covers despite getting outgained in all three contests.
Oklahoma has won four straight meetings in this rivalry, but is just 1-3 ATS, with the lone spread-cover coming in last year’s 42-14 rout as a 21-point home chalk. Going back to 1998, the Sooners have made five trips to College Station, going 3-2 SU, but 0-5 ATS, with the three victories coming by a total of 12 points, the latter being a 17-16 victory in 2006. In fact, the host is 9-1 ATS in this rivalry going back to ’98, and OU has failed to cover in seven straight trips to Kyle Field.
The Sooners are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-2 in Big 12 action, and 5-2 in November, and they’re 3-0 ATS as favorite of 20 points or more this season. Meanwhile, A&M is on pointspread tears 6-2-1 as a home underdog in Big 12 play, 6-1 against ranked teams at home, 7-1-1 ATS November and 5-2 in league contests, but the Aggies are in ATS skids of 2-5 at home and 1-7 after a SU victory.
For Oklahoma, the over is on runs of 5-0 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 when playing on grass, but the under is 9-4 in its last 13 road contests. For Texas A&M, the over streaks include 4-1 overall, 6-1 in conference and 13-6-2 in November. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 overall and 3-1-1 in College Station.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and OVER
Kansas (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at Nebraska (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
Two teams looking to keep their Big 12 North title hopes alive clash at Memorial Stadium, as the Huskers host Kansas, which hasn’t won in Lincoln in 40 years.
Nebraska went to Oklahoma last week and got squashed 62-28 as a 21-point road underdog, snapping a two-game SU winning streak. Although the Cornhuskers finished with 418 total yards, they were never in the game as they trailed 35-0 after one quarter and committed four turnovers. Bo Pellini’s squad, which is 2-4 ATS in its last six games, has put up at least 28 points in eight of its nine games.
The Jayhawks rebounded from a humiliating 63-21 home loss to Texas Tech with last week’s 52-21 thrashing of archrival Kansas State, easily cashing as an eight-point home chalk. Kansas, which jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead, piled up 469 total yards (280 rushing) and the defense held K-State to 355 yards while forcing five turnovers.
Kansas obliterated the Huskers exactly a year ago, rolling to a 76-39 victory as a 19-point favorite. The Jayhawks, who have taken two of the last three meetings after losing 36 in a row to Nebraska, have cashed in each of the last four series clashes, all of which were won by the home team. Finally, six of the last eight series battles were double-digit blowouts.
Kansas sports ATS streaks of 20-6 overall, 14-4 in conference, 7-1 on the road, 4-1 in November and 5-1 against winning teams, but the Jayhawks are 4-20 ATS in their last 24 November road games. On the flip side, Nebraska is stuck in pointspread funks of 6-14 overall, 4-9 at Memorial Stadium, 4-10 in Big 12 play and 4-9 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for Kansas overall, 4-1 for Kansas on the road, 4-1 for Kansas in Big 12 play, 9-2 for Kansas in November, 16-7 for Nebraska at home and 30-7 for Nebraska in November contests. Lastly, each of the last three meetings between these schools have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and OVER
(3) Penn State (9-0, 6-1-1 ATS) at Iowa (5-4, 4-3-1 ATS)
Penn State resumes its national championship chase when it heads to Iowa, where it hasn’t won since 1999, for a Big Ten battle against the Hawkeyes.
The Nittany Lions took last week off after rallying for a 13-6 victory at Ohio State as a two-point road chalk. Penn State won despite being held to a season-low in points, as the defense carried the day, giving up just 287 total yards (61 rushing) and forcing a critical fourth-quarter turnover that led to the game-winning touchdown. Joe Paterno’s squad has won 10 straight games (7-1-1 ATS) dating to last year’s bowl victory over Alabama.
Iowa’s two-game SU winning streak and three-game ATS run ended in heartbreaking fashion last week, as it allowed Illinois to kick a game-winning, 46-yard field goal with 24 seconds remaining to fall 27-24, coming up short as a 2½-point road underdog. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 at home this year (2-2 ATS in lined games).
Penn State ended a five-game losing streak to Iowa last year, rolling to a 27-7 home victory as a 10-point chalk. Still, the Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings (5-1 ATS as an underdog), and the pup is also 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
The Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS on the highway and 4-1 ATS on grass during their current 10-game SU winning streak. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home contests, 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 as a pup and 4-1 ATS in their last five on grass, but they’ve now failed to cash in six of their last seven November contests.
Despite producing just one touchdown and 281 total yards against Ohio State, the Nittany Lions are still putting up 41.8 ppg and 459.8 total ypg (226.3 rushing ypg) while the defense is yielding just 11.1 points and 266 total ypg, figures that rank fourth and sixth in the nation, respectively. As for the Hawkeyes, they’re averaging 29 points and 379.6 total yards per outing (189.4 rushing ypg), and the stout defense is limiting foes to 13.2 points and 301.6 total yards per outing.
The under is on streaks of 6-2 for Penn State in November, 15-5-1 for Iowa overall, 7-3-1 for Iowa in Big Ten action and 13-5 for Iowa on grass. Finally, the past two series meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER
Cincinnati (6-2, 3-4 ATS) at (20) West Virginia (6-2, 3-4 ATS)
Two of the top three teams in the Big East get together in Morgantown, where West Virginia looks to extend a five-game winning steak with a victory over visiting Cincinnati.
The Mountaineers went into the locker room at UConn last Saturday trailing 13-7 at halftime, then came out and scored the game’s final 28 points, finishing with 35-13 victory as a 3½-point road favorite. QB Pat White accounted for 230 of West Virginia’s 337 total yards (121 passing, 109 rushing) and had three total TDs (two rushing, one passing), while the Mountaineer defense gave up only 285 yards while notching five turnovers.
Cincinnati knocked South Florida out of the Top 25 with last Thursday’s impressive 24-10 victory as a 2½-point home underdog, the third time in the last four games that the Bearcats held an opponent to exactly 10 points. Going back to the middle of 2005, Cincinnati is on a 23-7 SU run and an 18-9-2 ATS streak
The Mountaineers lead the Big East (3-0, 1-2 ATS), while Cincinnati (2-1, 1-2 ATS) is tied with Pitt for second place.
West Virginia has owned this rivalry, winning eight of nine meetings going back to 1987, including the last three in a row. In 2007, the Mountaineers went to Cincinnati and jumped out to a 28-10 lead before holding on for a 28-23 victory but coming up just short as a 5½-point road chalk. The ‘dog and the road team are both 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Bearcats are on ATS runs of 8-3-1 as an underdog since 2006, 4-1-1 in November and 11-4-1 against winning teams, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory. Meanwhile, West Virginia has followed up a 1-4 ATS slump with consecutive spread-covers for the first time since last year. However, the Mounties are still 2-5 ATS in their last seven Big East affairs.
The over is 8-3-1 in Cincy’s last 12 road games, 6-2 in its last eight in November and 15-4 in West Virginia’s last 19 in November. Otherwise, the under is on streaks of 4-1 for the Bearcats overall, 4-0 for the Bearcats on artificial turf, 5-2 for West Virginia overall, 4-1 for West Virginia at home and 3-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(21) Cal (6-2 SU and ATS) at (7) USC (7-1, 5-2 ATS)
USC figures to face its stiffest challenge since suffering its only loss of the season at Oregon State when it welcomes 21st-ranked Cal to the L.A. Coliseum for a battle between Pac-10 rivals.
The Trojans had their way with winless Washington last week, jumping out to a 42-0 halftime lead en route to a 56-0 victory as a 45-point home chalk. It was the third shutout in the last four games for USC, which has allowed 10 points or fewer in all seven of its victories. The Trojans lead the nation in scoring defense (7.1 ppg), total defense (211.6 ypg) and passing defense (127.5 passing ypg) and they rank fifth in rushing defense (84.1 ypg).
USC has won five in a row (3-2 ATS) since its stunning 27-21 loss at Oregon State as a 24-point road chalk, but has alternated spread-covers in its last seven outings. Also, Pete Carroll’s squad is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home, outscoring its visitors by an aggregate margin of 163-13, giving up just one touchdown.
Cal fought off a steady downpour and took care of Oregon 26-16 as a 2½-point home favorite last week for its second straight win and cover. The Bears finished with a 348-290 edge in total offense and overcame five turnovers (four fumbles) to secure the win. Cal has outgained nine of its last 10 opponents going back to last season.
The Trojans traveled north last year and beat Cal 24-17 as a four-point road chalk. USC has won four in a row in this series and covered the spread in the last three. However, prior to that, the Bears were on a 6-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the Coliseum (all as an underdog). In fact, the visitor is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head tussles.
Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five outings (all in Pac-10 play), but they’re still mired in pointspread slumps of 2-9 on the highway, 1-5 as an underdog dating to 2005, 1-6 in November and 3-14 on grass. Conversely, USC sports positive ATS trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 21-5 in November and 8-3 on grass.
The under is 4-0 the last four years in this rivalry. Additionally, the under is on runs of 19-7-1 for USC overall, 14-3-1 for USC at home, 21-6-1 for USC in Pac-10 games and 5-1 for Cal in November. However, the Bears have topped the total in four of their last five on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER