Bob Balfe
Iowa +7.5 over Penn State
Iowa is playing good football and they have a great running back in Shonn Greene who should be able to move the ball well controlling the clock for the Hawkeyes. Penn State came out of the gates early this season scoring a ton of points this season, but their first true test came against Ohio State in which they could not move the ball at all and only won thanks to a late turnover by the Buckeyes. This game should be a defensive struggle. This is too many points for Penn State to be laying on the road in a spot like this. Take Iowa.
Bullseye Sports
Penn State at Iowa
Play: Iowa +7.5
Penn State had last week off to savor their huge win at Ohio State. If they're not careful, Iowa could spring the upset. On paper, this game plays out very similar to the Penn State-Ohio State game. This Iowa defense looks every bit as good as Ohio State's, which makes getting more than a TD huge.
Iowa is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Penn State, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog and 4-0 when Penn State is off a SU win in their most recent game. Iowa is also 5-1 ATS since 1999 as a home dog of 7 or more points. Here's another solid situation supporting this play: Game 8 or greater undefeated teams (PENN STATE) playing on the road after a bye are 1-11 ATS over the last 10 years, including 0-10 ATS as road favorites.
Take Iowa +7.5
Rocketman
Virginia @ Wake Forest
Play:1* Virginia +4
Virginia is 5-1 SU and ATS last 3 years off a loss against a conference opponent. Wake Forest is 1-5 ATS this year when playing on Saturday. Virginia is 12-1 SU overall vs Wake Forest since 1992. Virginia is 6-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at Wake Forest since 1992. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Cavaliers are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU loss. Demon Deacons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Demon Deacons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Virginia today!
Lenny Del Genio
Alabama at LSU
Alabama has covered every game this season as either a single-digit favorite or as an underdog. LSU was absolutely annihilated both times they were an underdog this season - 51-21 by Florida and 52-38 by Georgia. Alabama has covered seven of their last eight visits to Baton Rouge, yet has lost five straight times to the Bayou Bengals, including a tough 41-34 loss that's still on their minds. Talent gap is far bigger than the pointspread here.
Play on: Alabama
VEGAS EXPERTS
California at USC
The Trojans have the best defense in the country, having pitched three shutouts over their last four games all while outscoring the opposition 170-10 over that span. Take away a the first half vs. Oregon State and USC has allowed just 36 points over 30 quarters this season. In every win this year, they have held the opponent to 10 points or less. Cal is just 6-13 ATS its last 19 trips away from Berkeley, including losses this year to Maryland and Arizona State.
Play on: USC
Michael Alexander
NC State vs. Duke
Play: NC State +3.5
The NC State Wolfpack take a short tripe to intra-state Duke looking to break their four game losing streak. After a successful coaching stint at Boston College head man Obrien is struggling bringing in a team that is a woeful 2-6 SU overall. However, they have treated their backers well going 5-2 ATS. Although Obrien has BC flying high on offense he hasn't had that same response NC State as they offense is averaging only 19.4 points per game while their defense gives up a whopping 30.1.
The Duke Blue Devils come into this one off a though OT loss to Wake Forest last week dropping them to 4-4 SU overall. That win total is more then they amassed in four years under their previous coaching regime. They have shown good improvement on the offensive side of the ball as they are averaging 30 points per game when at home. Their defense has chipped in allowing only 21 per game.
SUPPORTING ANGLES: NC STATE is 9-3 ATS as an underdog versus an opponent off a SU loss. NC STATE coach O’Brien is 5-0 SU and ATS record as an underdog of less than 7 points playing with rest. OT losers (DUKE) who are listed as a favorite in their next home game is 18-36-2 ATS including 8-22 off a SU and ATS loss. DUKE is 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS their last 12 times listed as a favorite.
It's not one of your marquee matchups this week but NC State has won the last 12 out of 12 meetings versus the Blue Devils. I'm taking the Pack in this one.
JIM FEIST
CALIFORNIA / USC
Take: USC
There are 3 teams atop the Pac 10 with one loss. 2 of them meet here. The Cal Golden Bears haven't been a big-game team under Coach Jeff Tedford and are just 1-5 SU/ATS their last 6 as a dog. Tedford is rotating QBs Nate Longshore and sophomore QB Kevin Riley, trying to find a hot hand. Riley incurred a concussion in Saturday’s win over Oregon and Longshore finished the game. Tedford called Riley the starter "as of now" and said Riley and Longshore would continue to share first-team repetitions in practice. Longshore has been poor against strong defenses and faces the best in the nation here. Cal is also 0-2 SU/ATS its last 2 road games, losing 35-23 at Maryland and lost 42-27 at Arizona. Cal is 0-3 SU/ATS the last three years against USC, scoring 17, 9 and 10 points. USC (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) is on a roll, outscoring opponents by a 40-7 average. The Trojans rank first in scoring defense, giving up 7 points a game, and second in pass defense (125 yards a game). The offense: 40 points, 204 yards rushing, 256 yds passing per game. They will be motivated for another strong game. Play USC!
Tom Freese
Notre Dame at Boston College
Boston College is in a 84-44 ATS System that says Play On home teams that failed to cover ATS in three of their last four games vs. an opponent who covered ATS in four of their last five games. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS at home off a home game. Notre Dame is in a 38-14 ATS Play Against System that says to go against any team off a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points if they have six or more starters returning than does their opponent. The Irish are 5-16 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. PLAY ON BOSTON COLLEGE -
Jimmy The Moose
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh has started to play a lot better and have won their last 2 games. The Penguins are 15-5 in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record. In their last 26 games vs. Atlantic Division opponents the Penguins are 18-8. The Islanders are 7-20 in their last 27 home games as well as their last 27 games overall. In their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning record the Penguins are 15-31. Pittsburgh has won 5 of the last 7 meetings between the clubs and will take another one tonight. Play on the Pittsburgh Penguins -.
Game Time Sports Advisors
Louisiana Tech vs. San Jose State
Play: San Jose State -7
Your FREE MONEY will be on San Jose State tonight. La Tech off huge upset of Fresno last week. San Jose is on a tidy 6-0 ATS run at home as a fave, and 9-1 ATS at home. Lay the TD as the Spartans roll 30-13
Cajun Sports
Purdue vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -9.5
The Spartans put their Top 25 ranking on the line early on Saturday when the host the Boilermakers in East Lansing.
Michigan State is coming off a gritty performance in which they overcame Wisconsin, 25-24, with a field goal on the final play of the game. The Spartans are now 8-2 for just the second time in four decades, and 5-1 within the Big 10 conference. In fact, they trail only undefeated Penn State for first place in the Big Ten standings and they will lock horns with the Nittany Lions in their regular-season finale.
As for Purdue, it hasn't enjoyed a lot of success this season, especially in conference play where it has gone just 1-4. That lone victory however, came last weekend, a thrilling 48-42 triumph over Michigan. The victory put the breaks on a lengthy five-game slide and kept the team's slip chances alive for an 11th bowl bid in 12 seasons under head coach Joe Tiller. The Boilermakers must win out in order to become bowl eligible, but they own an 18-game winless streak against Top 25 teams.
Unlike years past, the Boilermakers have struggled on offense in 2008, averaging a modest 23 ppg. Slowing down opposing clubs on a consistent basis has been an issue for the Boilermakers this season, as they are giving up nearly 28 ppg and 385 total ypg. The defense is being abused for over 175 ypg on the ground and has forced a mere 11 turnovers.
The Spartans are a team that likes to grind it out on the ground and should be able to take advantage of Purdue’s porous rush defense. Michigan State is producing a solid 148 ypg via the run and is paced Javon Ringer, who leads the NCAA in rushing touchdowns and ranks second in rushing. Defensively, the Spartans has fared well to keep the opposition out of the end zone, allowing less than 21 ppg.
The Spartans are coming off a lackluster effort that nearly cost them a shot at the Big Ten title. It was expected, as they were coming off an emotional victory over in-state rival Michigan. We don't expect the same this weekend though, as Ringer and company should come out energized in front of their home crowd and claim the victory with a stout effort on the ground.
It’s no surprise to us that the Boilers have struggled this season, as we like to play AGAINST a team with a head coach who has announced his retirement. Such a coach is already retired for all intents and purposes, and is thinking about his off-season pursuits.
We also like to play AGAINST a team off its peak performance of the season. Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the Super Bowl”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall.
Purdue is clearly off their best showing of the season, and as Michigan State struggled after knocking off the Wolverines, we expect the Boilermakers to do the same here. In fact, teams off a SU win of less than 29 points against Michigan are now 0-9 ATS since 2006, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average. We also note that Purdue is 0-4 SU (-18.8 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-12.2 ppg) as an underdog of less than 15 points seeking revenge for a favorite SU loss.
This is not only a “must-win” for Michigan State to keep their conference title hopes alive, but it’s their final home game, where they are an amazing 12-0-1 ATS (+16 ppg) in their home finale off scoring 19+ points in their previous outing. With the seniors leading the way, we look for the Spartans to win this game by at least 2 TDs.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 38 PURDUE 24
SCOTT FERRALL
TENNESSEE -26 to Wyoming--The Vols finally kick someones ass for Fulmer
COLORADO -10 to Iowa St--The Cyclones are winless on the road and the Buffs are 4-1 in Boulder
EAST CAROLINA -8.5 to Marshall
WAKE -3.5 to Virginia
NEW MEXICO -3.5 to UNLV--The Lobos gave Utah fits, so they'll take out the Rebels here
Jorge Gonzalez
Ohio State vs. NorthWestern
Play: Ohio State -11
Ohio State is coming off a bye week after a tough loss to Penn State. Both teams come in with a record of 7-2 and still have solid shot of making it to the Rose Bowl Northwestern is coming off an upset win over Minnesota despite not having the services of their first string quarterback C.J. Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton. Bacher maybe available for the game but Sutton is lost for the year. Quarterback Mike Kafka filled for both lost starters by rushing for 217 yards and by passing 143 yards in the upset. The Buckeyes are still in the hunt for the Rose Bowl if Penn State runs the board and plays for the national championship. The Buckeyes have dominated Northwestern winning nine of the last ten meetings straight up. Ohio State has coveted the last three spreads by winning by an average margin 45.3 points. Despite the success of the program, The Buckeyes have covered 13 of their last 17 games on the road The Buckeyes worked on their offense extensively during their off week and will run away with this game early.
Karl Garrett
Ohio State -12 at NORTHWESTERN
Early college action on Saturday, and the G-Man has to believe the Buckeyes, who were only able to net a pair of field goals in their stinging 13-6 home loss to Penn State their last time on field will be able to get on top of this double-digit road impost today in Evanston.
A banged-up Northwestern team went into Minnesota last Saturday, and sprung a dramatic upset, as they picked off the Gophers in the last minute of regulation, and ran it back for the game winner.
Can't see that happening again today, as the Buckeyes have made the Wildcats their red-headed step-child, and have beaten them soundly the last 3 times they have met, 58-7 last year, 54-10 in '06, and 48-7 in '05!
Ohio State's defense has allowed a grand total of 23 points over their last 3 games, and the Buckeyes have been able to win, and cover their last pair of road games. In fact, the road team has covered the last 6 OSU games this season.
Today that number will move to 7 in a row, take the Bucks!
5♦ OHIO STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Georgia -12 at KENTUCKY
Not only is Rich Brooks' team a little on the young side, but the Wildcats are also very banged up, and they are facing a Georgia team that just suffered their worst defeat under head coach Mark Richt, a 49-10 blowout against Florida.
Bad combination(s) for sure for these Wildcats who have also failed 6 of their last 7 games against the spread at home.
Georgia is on a 5-1 spread run on the road, and they have won and covered 5 of the last 6 in this series.
Knowshon Moreno was held to a measly 65 yards in that loss to Florida, so expect him to come out a more than a little fired up as he takes the field in Lexington today.
Kentucky is averaging just 14 points per game in their SEC games this year, and that kind of production just won't cut it against a seething Bulldogs team, even on their home field.
Play on the 'Dawgs.
5♦ GEORGIA