Jeff Benton
For Saturday in college football, we’ll turn to the marquee game of the day and back Texas Tech over Oklahoma.
Sure, this could be a big letdown situation for the Red Raiders, who are coming off the biggest win in program history, that thrilling, last-second 39-33 triumph over top-ranked Texas. Sure, Texas Tech’s players have to guard against “big head syndrome” after such a victory. And yes, Oklahoma State is extremely talented. But all that said, I can’t get over how short this line is!
Forget about the final score last week – Texas Tech completely dominated the Longhorns, jumping out to leads of 19-0 and 29-13 and finishing with a 579-374 advantage in total yards, including a stunning 105-80 edge in rushing. Also, the Red Raiders finished with 31 first downs to Texas’ 18 and held the ball for 37 of 60 minutes. Now compare that to what Oklahoma State did the previous week in its 28-24 loss at Texas: The Cowboys managed 416 total yards (163 less than Tech did against Texas) and gave up 504 (130 more than Tech allowed). Oklahoma State had 22 first downs to the Longhorns’ 32, and even though the Cowboys outgained Texas 217-133 on the ground, the ‘Horns still won the time of possession battle 33:38-26:22.
So you have to figure that the ONLY reason for this short line is the letdown factor, plus the look-ahead possibility to Oklahoma, whom the Red Raiders play in two weeks. Well, the last team in the Big 12 that was in such a letdown/lookahead situation was Texas. Coming off physically and emotionally draining victory over archrival Oklahoma and with the Oklahoma State game on deck, the Longhorns welcomed then-No. 11 Missouri to Austin … and rolled 56-31 win (I remember, because I backed Missouri that day because I though Texas was in a trap spot.)
Bottom line: Texas Tech will be ready to play today, and the crowd in Lubbock will be ready, too. And with an explosive offense that now features a running game to complement Heisman candidate Graham Harrell, and with a defense that’s improving every week, look for the Red Raiders (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS last six games hosting Ok-State) to stay unbeaten and win this by at least a touchdown.
5♦ TEXAS TECH
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the points with Northwestern at home.
Obviously James Laurinaitis and the Ohio State defense is extremely stout and should be too good today for the weaker Wildcats but to catch double digits at home with Northwestern is enough to give them a go here.
Terrelle Pryor and the Ohio State offense truly cannot be trusted at all this season. These guys have not been piling up the points and at times have been very offensively challenged. This is a plodding offense right now led by the young Pryor and Beanie Wells who has looked fairly poor of late as well.
Tyrell Sutton is done for the season which is not great as that guy can run with the best of them. Last week Quarterback CJ Bacher was out injured as well but backup Mike Kafka went ballistic in the overly impressive outright win at a red hot Minnesota Golden Gopher squad. Kafka went nuts running all over the field in the unreal late win thanks to the Interception return with 12 seconds to go. Both signal callers are expected to play today making it that much harder for Jim Tressel to game plan.
There is no doubting that I am backing the well inferior and less athletic squad in this spot but the Northwestern players are on top of the world and as confident as can be after the last victory and the overall great season thus far. Plus I can't really see the Ohio State players be all that excited up against what is still "Northwestern" and now Ray Small being suspended is fine with me.
I have seen OSU look too bad too often offensively to be laying a price like this on the highway today. I can't say that I can truly trust a Northwestern program against big bad Ohio State only getting around 11 but I can see the Buckeyes flame out again offensively and in the end just pull this thing out in pedestrian fashion something like 17-10.
Jake Timlin
Your Saturday selection is the BYU Cougars.
Awfully big number today in Provo, but given just how bad San Diego State is I look for a bigger then expect blowout win from the Cougars. You see working in the Cougars favor today will be the fact that BYU will be facing a San Diego State team that just might be the worst team in the nation. Yep even worst then the two Washington schools as the Aztecs at 1-8 SU on the year is coming off an embarrassing road lose to Wyoming where the Cowboys with one of the worst offenses in the nation scored 35 points thank to 500 plus yards. Well enter the Cougars explosive offense that averages 450 yards per game and one that might just go off for 600 plus and 50 points against San Diego State team that has already given up 70 points in a game this year. Also, helping things out will be the fact that BYU does not let up against the Aztecs having won and covered 8 of the last 10 meetings, including the past two meetings. So in a lopsided game take the Cougars minus the points as they make easy work of SDSU.
TONY WESTON
Now, this almost isn't fair because no one wants to be the first team to play a team that just got knocked from the top spot in the polls. But, Baylor has the unenviable task of being that team. Unfortunately for the Bears they are going to get killed today.
So far this season Texas is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, having lost each of its last two ATS. But the Longhorns have been dominant at home this year, going a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. In those five home games the Longhorns have beaten their opponents by an average score of 48-17. And only twice have teams scored more than 10 points on Texas in Austin.
The Bears come into this game 3-6 SU this season, but a surprising 5-3 ATS. Baylor has played decent on the road, going 2-1 ATS, but going 0-3 SU.
However, two of those wins ATS have come against Nebraska and Connecticut, not necessarily the epitome of college football greatness. The one loss came against Top 10 Oklahoma State, who beat the crap out of Baylor 34-6 on Oct. 18.
Consider, too that Texas is a perfect 10-0 SU in their last 10 meetings and is 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings. Over that nine-game stretch the Longhorns have outscored Baylor by an average of 50.6-8.7.
The Longhorns will run up the score once again and destroy the Bears. Take Texas at home today.
3♦ TEXAS
Ross Benjamin
Arkansas @ South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -13.0
Any home favorite of 14.5 or less that has a winning percentage of .600 or better, they are coming off a home favorite ATS win, and are facing an opponent off of a home underdog SU win is 10-0 SU and ATS since 1993. The favorite has won these 10 games by an average of 27.4 points per game. Play on South Carolina minus the points.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
5 Units
Ohio State (-11) over Northwestern
12:00 PM -- Ryan Field
Ohio State by 17-20
TV: ESPN2 Comments: It may well turn out to be a snowing day in Evanston but I don’t think it will have much impact on Ohio State, a 7-2 team coming off a bye week and a 13-6 loss to Penn State. Count on the Buckeyes being in a comeback mode and dominating a Northwestern (7-2) team that has injuries to several key people on offense. Of note is the fact OSU has won the last three games 56-7, 54-10 and 48-7.
Mostly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the West at 15-25 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40.
4 Units
Arkansas/So Carolina Points
1:00 PM -- Williams-Brice Stadium
South Carolina by 3-4
TV: Pay Per View Comments: Arkansas (4-5) is one of the most improved teams in college football and stands a very impressive 2-2 in its last 4 games, with the two wins coming over Auburn and previously unbeaten Tulsa and the losses coming by 2 points to Mississippi and by 1 point to Kentucky. The charts say the Razorbacks are ready to fire their best shot and that should keep them in this one all the way. South Carolina (6-3) has a decent defense but is an unimpressive football team.
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the West at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
3 Units
Oklahoma State/Texas Tech Points
8:00 PM -- Jones AT&T Stadium
Oklahoma State by 3-4
TV: ABC Comments: Texas Tech (9-0) is in a very tough spot in this Big 12 showdown. The Red Raiders come into this off a very draining last-second 39-33 win over previous number one ranked and undefeated Texas, and there is no way they can be ready to play at the 100% level. Oklahoma State (8-1) is every bit as good as Texas and is even quicker and with a betting running game. The only loss OSU has had this season was a 28-24 decision in Austin to Texas and my figures say they pull he ambush in Lubbock and get the outright win.
Clear. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature
2008 CHAIRMAN'S CLUB FOOTBALL
Saturday, November 08, 2008
15 Units
Oregon State/UCLA Points
6:07 PM -- Rose Bowl
Oregon State by 17-21
TV: FSN Comments: For openers Oregon State is a dramatically superior football team and has so much more quickness and speed that this game could end up being a blowout. Oregon State (5-3) is young and somewhat inexperienced but one would never know it by watching the Beavers play. They have an explosive offense and a lockdown defense and it must be noted that two of its three losses this season came at Penn State (9-0) 45-14 and at Utah (10-0), 31-28. The figures say there is no way UCLA can keep it close.
Sunny. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
He pretty much sucks but here ya go
Wild Bill
College Game of YEAR: Nebraska +1 1/2 (10 units)
Texas Tech -3 (5 units)
Bowling Green -2 1/2 (5 units)
Boise -32 (5 units)
Rice -9 1/2 (5 units)
Florida St -6 1/2 (5 units)
Penn St -7 (5 units)
LSU +3 1/2 (5 units)
Washington +14 1/2 (5 units)
UCLA +7 1/2 (5 units)
L'ville +6 1/2 (5 units)
Texas -26 (5 units)
USC -18 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas St -3 1/2 (5 units)
Middle Tenn -4 (5 units)
PICKENS PICK
NCAA FOOTBALL Big Ten Basher
150 unit- At 12:05pm our pick is on the Ohio State Buckeyes to annihilate Northwestern. We called it out a few weeks ago that Terrell Pryor just wasn’t ready to take down a very solid Penn State team in his freshman year…and in fact he coughed up the ball that lead to the winning drive after playing a solid game. Simply put Ohio State is going to rock this team and take out every can of you know what that is possible on Northwestern. Bottom line Ohio State is a much better squad and in all honesty they were playing fantastic football (when compared to earlier in the season) coming into the PSU game. Northwestern is not PSU on defense and look for Ohio State’s bottled up offense to be the difference maker. With Northwestern off a big win last week against Minnesota and OSU’s bitter loss and their week off to prepare for this game- I’d be willing to lay 17. Enjoy taking the easy money to the bank.
Play on Ohio State -11
50 unit- At 2:05pm our selection is on Boise State over Utah State. With hopes of another BCS bowl bid hung before the eyes of the Broncos they won’t let any opportunity pass to run up a big margin here. Boise State failed to cover in their last home game against Hawaii and they’ll bounce back with a blowout win.
Play on Boise State -35
200 unit- At 1:00pm our selection is on the Tennessee Vols over Wyoming. Well it just wasn’t meant to be for coach Fulmer. In a conference as competitive as the SEC it is truly win or go home and what have you done for me lately. Well Picken’s expects Tennessee to come out and lay a whooping on Wyoming that is illegal in 20 plus states. The Vols will play hard for their coach this game and after 2 straight beatings Tennessee has seen at the hands of South Carolina and Alabama, this Wyoming team will appear to be a slightly glorified high school squad. I’d lay 35 in this game in a second.
Play on Tennessee -27
Saturday Night Smasher
400 unit- At 8:00pm our selection is on the Houston Cougars over Tulane. Folks, Houston should have a field day passing all over this team. Case Keenum is the real deal and I think we’ll wind up seeing this kid play on Sundays. As a sophomore this year he has QB ratings through the roof combined with over 3,000 yards passing and 25 tds. To only 8 picks. It’s hard to play any better. He may throw for 400 yards this game against a Tulane team that is just injury depleted and dreadful- 4 straight losses including a blowout loss to ARMY? The same Army team that got crushed by Akron and Temple? Yes the same. This game is over before the first snap is taken. The last time Tulane took Houston down was in 2002 and they won’t do it this year. Enjoy the easy easy cash.
Play on Houston -16
PickensPicks plays
15 unit- Nebraska -1.5
15 unit- Rutgers -14
10 unit- Oklahoma State +3.5
10 unit- Kansas St +27
10 unit- USC -22.5
25 unit- NC State +3.5
Johnny Guild
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1, 4-1), has lost 11 straight in Lubbock and is, 2-11-3 all-time with the last win coming in 1944. The Cowboys are playing on the road against a team ranked in the top 3 for the third time in five weeks, going 1-1 against the AP top five this season. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-0, 5-0), beat then-No.19 Kansas 63-21 on October 25 and top-ranked Texas 39-33 last week.Without doubt, this will be a great game and almost certainly a high scoring shootout with a close finish. The last three clashes have been decided by seven points or less. Look for Heisman hopeful Graham Harrell and crew to seize a close victory in Lubbock. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Oklahoma State at home.
Selections
Michigan State Spartans -9.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers -1.5
Florida Gators -24
Texas Tech Red Raiders -3.5
Oklahoma State (8-1) Texas Tech (9-0)Over -69
Ben Lewis
Pittsburgh -6 vs. Louisville
The Panthers were red hot until starting QB Bill Stull was hurt a few weeks ago vs. Rutgers, which went on to smash Pitt. Stull (concussion) sat out last week’s win at Notre Dame but should start Saturday. And boy are the Panthers due here. Pitt is 0-3 at home under coach Dave Wannstedt when nationally ranked and has yet to beat Louisville since the Cardinals joined the Big East three years ago.
Overall, the Cards have topped the Panthers in seven straight meetings. But RB LeSean McCoy has rushed for at least 142 yards in each of Pittsburgh’s last five games, and Louisville tends to cough up the ball, committing 16 turnovers this year, including two last week in a loss to Syracuse (Syracuse?). In addition, the Panthers need a win to stay close to West Virginia in the Big East race.
Team Who2beton
The West Virginia Mountaineers may be nationally ranked, but the Cincinnati Bearcats have an identical 6-2 record, and they have dome that despite using four different quarterbacks due to a slew of injuries.
The Bearcats may now have their man though, as Tony Pike was magnificent in a 24-10 upset of then number 24 South Florida last week. Pike completed 20 out of 28 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns. He gives Cincinnati some big-play ability, which is crucial vs. the staunch West Virginia defense. Do not sell the Cincinnati defensive unit short either however, as they throttled South Florida all night long and have allowed exactly 10 points in three of their last four games.
The Bearcats are allowing just 122.6 rushing yards per game overall on only 3.3 yards per carry, and if they can contain the West Virginia powerful running game and force Par White to win this game with his arm, they will have an excellent chance at another upset of a ranked team. Sure the Mountaineers have won five straight games, but they had a couple of struggles along the way in non-covering wins over Rutgers and Syracuse, and we feel this Cincinnati unit towers over those teams when the Cats get any quarterback play. If Pike can match his performance from last week, the Bearcats can at the very least take this game down to the wire, if not pull off their second straight shocker.
Pick: Cincinnati +7
Big Al McMordie
Arkansas State vs. Florida Intl
Play:Arkansas State -2.5
At 7 pm, our complimentary selection is on Arkansas State, who take on the Golden Panthers in Florida on Saturday. In its last game, Arkansas State was shutout 35-0 by #1-ranked Alabama. Now, Steve Roberts' Red Wolves are installed as a road favorite, and road faves actually do quite well off shutout losses, registering 40 ATS wins and 24 losses since 1980. Clearly, after an embarassing loss, these teams enjoy playing an opponent which they can manhandle, and they take advantage. Play on Arkansas State.
Matt Foust
Texas A&M +27.5
The Oklahoma Sooners will head south today for a Big 12 tilt with the Texas A&M Aggies. Despite the vast difference in both talent and record, we are going with the Aggies to cover the 27.5.
Oklahoma will have little trouble finding the end zone this afternoon against the Texas A&M defense. The Sooners are averaging 49.8 points per game while the Aggies are allowing 32.6 points per contest. Bob Stoops club has dropped 45, 58, and 62 on their opposition in the last three weeks (all Big 12 schools), but they only beat one of those squads by more than 27, which was a Cornhusker team that turned the ball over four times.
Texas A&M, while sporting an ugly 4-5 record under new Head Coach Mike Sherman, has played better football of late. They are coming off back to back conference wins (Iowa St. and Colorado) and should enter this game with a certain amount of confidence, especially on their home field. Also, A&M has only been beat by more than 27 points just one time this season, which was a 28 point loss to Oklahoma State back on October 4th. The Aggies five losses, which include the aforementioned Cowboys and Texas Tech, have been by an average of 16.4 points.
Oklahoma will win this game, but Texas A&M’s ability to throw the ball will hurt the Sooners and allow them to put their fair share of points on the scoreboard. Just a couple of weeks ago the Jayhawks dropped 31 on OU in Norman and they amassed over 350 yards through the air in doing so. The Aggies should be able to exploit the Sooners secondary as well, which gives up over 236.6 passing yards per game.
Things to consider: The home team is 12-2 against the spread in this series, dating back to 1993.
Take the Aggies +27.5
John Fina
Selection: New Mexico St. +3
Reason: Put us down on New Mexico St. +3 for our Free College Football Selection on Saturday. Hawaii was at one time a very good team at home but they never did too well laying points on the road. We have a situation here were the market is calling for points from a team that has gotten much, much worse over time. The Warriors are 5-9 against the spread in their last 14 games on the road. This includes a huge loss to Utah St. last week. On the road, the Warriors are a horrible 1-4 and have an average loss of 23 points per game this season. Even though the Aggies look bad at the face (losing 3 in a row and 4 of its last 6) digging a little deeper reveals that they are not doing as bad as they seem. New Mexico was able to outgain 5 out of 6 of their opponents with Boise State being the only exception; the Broncos have been outgained only once the entire season. While the Aggies offense has had some difficulties, they have done well against the Bronco’s who in total defense are ranked 12th and the Spartans who are ranked 19th. This is incredible considering that the Warriors are ranked 83rd in total defense. New Mexico is ranked 11th in the nation in passing offense where they average 297.6 yards per game through the air. New Mexico is the toughest team that Hawaii has faced so far and even though the Warriors have allowed a decent 203 yards per game it is in for some rough opposition. Hawaii is ranked 90th in the country and allows their opponents an average of 29.9 points per game. Utah St., a team that is ranked 92nd in scoring offense, managed 30 points against the Warriors. That game was the second best for Utah this season. This is the perfect opportunity for the Aggie offense. While the New Mexico offense looks good to go, the defense is atrocious. The Aggies are ineffective at stopping the run and have a rank of 114th in rushing defense. This looks bleak, but the silver lining is that the Warriors are horrible at running the football. Hawaii is ranked 104th in rushing offense and in the last nine games has managed 100 yards only five times. Hawaii is successful in the air and nowhere else. The Aggies have a great defense that is capable of controlling that. In passing defense, New Mexico State is ranked 3rd and in passing efficiency defense is ranked 30th. New Mexico will also be strongly driven by the revenge factor after losing last season 50-13. Take New Mexico St. Aggies +3!
Bobby Maxwell
Alabama at LSU +3'
The crowd is going to be in a frenzy in Louisiana today when the top-ranked Crimson Tide roll in to take on LSU and attempt to clinch the SEC West Division title. But the Tigers aren't going to lay down, they are a quality team that just had a horrible outing a few weeks ago.
LSU lost to Georgia 52-38 a few weeks ago, but rebounded to beat Tulane 35-10 last week. The Tigers have won five straight meetings in this rivalry (3-1-1 ATS) with three of those wins coming when Alabama coach Nick Saban was with LSU. Last year was Saban's first in Alabama and he came up short against LSU, falling 41-34 as a 6 1/2-point underdog.
Alabama has gotten the job done with defense this season and just enough offense. The Tide are just 1-5 ATS in their last six November games.
The Tigers have been sort of a roller coaster this season. They have got to get a dominating defensive effort today. They've got the athletes on defense to shut down anybody and with the crowd behind them today, you'll see a strong performance from them.
Go ahead and play LSU at home in this one.
4♦ LSU
Minnesota at PORTLAND -8
Portland has absolutely dominated this series lately, winning four straight and eight of the last 10 against the T'Wolves. The Blazers have covered the number in six straight against Minnesota and nine of the last 10 dating back to 2005.
Portland swept four games from Minnesota last season and have won and covered five straight against the T'Wolves at home. The Blazers got a 101-99 win over Houston on Thursday thanks to a big three-pointer from second-year star Brandon Roy.
This is a good young nucleus for the Blazers as Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Przybilla can all play in this league.
Minnesota comes into this one off a 121-109 loss in Sacramento on Friday, falling well short as a three-point 'dog. The T'wolves have lost four straight and both road games this season. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five and aren't going to like what happens to them tonight in Portland.
Minnesota is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 road games and 2-7 ATS against the Western Conference. Meanwhile, Portland is 6-0 ATS in their last six at home. Play the Blazers in a route tonight.
3♦ PORTLAND