James Patrick Sports
South Carolina vs. Florida
Play South Carolina
Gamecocks Head Coach Steve Spurrier returns to the “Swamp” seeking revenge for last seasons (51-31) loss to his Alma Mater. Amazingly we grab the nations #3 ranked defensive unit as a 20 point underdog to go along with Spurrier’s 6-1 ATS record as a double-digit SEC underdog.
Dave Cokin
South Carolina @ Florida
Play: South Carolina +22'
The Florida Gators may indeed be the best team in the land right now, and there's no question they should at least win this football game. But make no mistake, the visiting Gamecocks are legit on defense and I don't see the Gators moving the ball at will here. The key is the So Car offense. I believe they get the number covered here if they can simply get to the end zone twice and I think Spurrier can find a way to accomplish that feat. I'll go with South Carolina plus the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Louisiana Tech -13
The lowly Aggies will be a long way from home this Saturday and that likely means more doom and gloom as they are 0-5 on the road this season while Louisiana Tech is 4-0 at home. Tech has beat the Aggies by double digits in each of the past two seasons and comes into this year's matchup with lots of momentum, having won back-to-back games over Fresno State and San Diego State. Utah State is 4-17 ATS after a loss by 28 or more points since 1992 and only 1-15 ATS off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more since 1992. Take Tech.
John Martin
1 Unit on Nevada -14.5
Nevada’s running game is one that not too many folks know about. But I would put their rushing attack up against any other team in the country. Nevada is scoring 38.2 points/game, which is largely attributed to their running game where the Wolf Pack are averaging 324 rushing yards/game on the season. You would think this team would be one-dimensional with those rushing numbers, but that’s simply not the case. Nevada is also throwing for 200 passing yards/game this season for an average of 524.1 totals yards of offense/game. Nevada catches a struggling San Jose State team at home Saturday. The Spartans have played poorly in each of their last 3 games, losing badly to Boise State, narrowly escaping a terrible Idaho team 30-24 the following week, and then getting crushed at home by Louisiana Tech 21-0 last week. San Jose State cannot throw the ball, which makes the Spartans an easy team to stop. San Jose State has thrown for 118 yards or less in 3 of their last 4 games overall. The Spartans were held to just 30 yards rushing last week on 28 carries. SJSU is down for the count, while Nevada is flourishing right now. Nevada posted 472 rushing yards on Fresno State last week, and SJSU is not about to slow this offense down Saturday. Once Nevada jumps on the Spartans early, they will be able to increase their lead with the best rushing attack in the country coupled with the fact that San Jose State cannot throw the ball, thus they cannot play from behind. Cash in with Nevada as the favorite.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oregon State -3
Cal is just 1-3 on the road this season and faces a stiff challenge this week against an OSU team that has won 4 straight. OSU has been phenomenal at home this season, averaging 41.2 ppg on offense and only allowing 16.5 ppg on defense. The Beavers have a legit shot to win the Pac-10 and I don't see them ruining that opportunity at home this week. If anything, they would likely fall next week on the road to Arizona. Oregon State is 20-6 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992, 14-3 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992, and 17-5 ATS after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. Cal has also been poor in games odds makers have figured to be close, at 12-26 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. Take the Beavers at home.
Matt Foust
Georgia @ Auburn Under 47.5
The 8-2 Georgia Bulldogs will take on fellow SEC member Auburn this Saturday in a surprisingly unimportant affair. Granted, the game still holds big significance to Georgia, but the Auburn half of the equation brings it down a few notches. It is also the Tigers who have us anticipating the score being down a few notches as well, hence our recommended play on the Under.
If Auburn has proven anything this year, it is that they have difficulty finding the end zone. Despite the Bulldogs suspect defense in recent weeks, Auburn will be hard pressed to score more than two touchdowns, if they can even muster that. The Tigers biggest offensive strength (running game) is Georgia’s biggest defensive strength. And, the Tigers simply do not have the talent this season to overcome a superior opponent. The Auburn offense is averaging just 19.5 points per game this year and they have failed to score more than 17 points in four of their last six games.
Georgia’s offense too, will probably finding the sledding a little tough this Saturday. While the Tigers defense is not what it was supposed to be, it is still a decent unit, holding the opposition to just 16.3 points per game. In fact, Auburn’s average game score in SEC play this year is 29.17 (six games) and not a single game has gone over 47.5.
Look for Auburn to keep it on the ground in order to try to stay in the game. This, along with Georgia’s likely emphasis on the ground game as well, will speed this contest up, allowing for fewer scoring opportunities.
Pick: Take the Under 47.5
Nebraska -6.0 (-110)
This Saturday the Nebraska Cornhuskers will take on Big 12 North division rival, the Kansas State Wildcats. The Huskers are favored -6 on the road and we are going to take them to cover that number.
Nebraska, while not having a shot at the Big 12 North title, is probably playing better than any other North team with the exception of the Missouri Tigers. The Huskers have won three of their last four games and have demonstrated that they are clearly the class of the Big 12’s second tier teams of which K-State is a member. They have wins over Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas to prove it. Nebraska’s average margin of victory against these squads is 16.67 points per game.
Kansas State is without question a team in turmoil. Even prior to the announcement that Head Coach Ron Prince would be gone at the end the season, the Wildcats were circling the drain. They have now lost four games in a row and they have yet to win a conference game at home this year. The Cats are also 0-3 against their North brethren and their average loss in Big 12 play has been by 20.4 points per game.
Both of these clubs are prone to the turnover and, quite frankly, that is K-State’s best chance to win. However, it will be difficult for them to overcome their own errors. Nebraska should have a field day, as just about every Wildcat opponent has, rushing the ball on Saturday. The Huskers average 156.7 yards per game on the ground while the Cats yield 210.8 rushing yards per game. Nebraska also has a big advantage on third down. They convert at nearly a 50% clip, about the same percentage that K-State allows.
Take Nebraska -6
Michael Alexander
East Carolina vs. So Mississippi
Play:East Carolina +2.5
East Carolina, riding a three game SU winning streak, travel to take on So. Mississippi looking to rack up their 11th ATS win over the Golden Eagles. The Pirates offense, although not one of the most prolific scoring machines, have posted a decent 23.2 points per game. Although their defense has been rather porous giving up higher than 20 points per game, they have stepped it up in their last three games allowing their opponents to post just 12 points per game and just 233 yards of total offense.
The So. Mississippi Golden Eagles after losing five in a row come into this one on their own streak winning their last two in a row. Unlike East Carolina, the Eagles haven't have problems scoring posting an average of 31.9 points per game. They have needed every bit of those points as they defense has given up a very high 27.3 points per game. The last two times that these teams have met the defense has given up an average of 24 points.
SUPPORTING ANGLES: E CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. E CAROLINA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Southern Miss’ top two running backs are banged-up. Each missed last Saturday’s game, leaving QB Austin Davis as the team’s leading rusher. That will spell trouble versus a Carolina defense that is athletic and deep enough to shut him down. I'm taking the points and the Golden Eagles in this one.
Lee Kostroski
Notre Dame @ Navy
PICK: Notre Dame -3.5
Notre Dame lost to Navy at home last year 46-44 in triple overtime, making it the first time in 44 years that Navy beat Notre Dame. Don’t think for one second that the Irish have forgotten about that. At 5-4, Notre Dame may not have the swagger that Irish teams have had in the past, but three of their four losses were on the road to good teams (Michigan State, North Carolina, Boston College) and an overtime loss at home to a good Pittsburgh team. We expect Charlie Weis to have his team ready for revenge against a talented Navy team.
Before last weeks 0-17 loss at the hand of Boston College, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen was starting to look like a premiere College quarterback, he threw four interceptions against Boston College, squandering any chance of a win. We expect him to have a big day to redeem himself against Navy’s 105th ranked pass defense. In their most recent game, Navy gave up 340 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against Temple!
In similar match-ups by both of these teams, they have both had a recent game against Pittsburgh; Navy lost their match-up at home with Pitt by 21 and was out-gained by 250 yards, whereas Notre Dame out-gained Pitt and lost in the fourth overtime 36-33. Notre Dame comes into this game under a lot of scrutiny after their shutout loss to BC and knowing that they lost to Navy for the first time in 44 years last year; now Charlie Weis has taken over play-calling duty for the offense and we expect an offensive explosion from the Irish. The road team in this series is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and we expect that trend to continue Saturday. The game is technically on a "neutral site" in Baltimore but it is basically a home game for Navy. Go with the Irish.
Jack Clayton
Oklahoma State at Colorado
Pick: Colorado
Oklahoma State has a dynamite offense built for the artificial turf at home. But this is a road game on natural grass, that slows down speed-oriented offenses. Colorado plays its best ball at home, as well. Play Colorado.
Scott Ferrall
MARYLAND +3 from North Carolina--The Terps are unbeaten at home and getting points. They are both 3-2 in conference
TROY +19.5 from LSU--They both average 31 per week and the Tigers are coming off an OT loss to BAMA--how do they get up for this game after that game at home last week ? They don't--and Troy isn't bad-they have the same 6-3 mark as LSU
NC ST +4 from Wake Forest--only because the Wolfpack are at home and they both average 20pts per game
Wild Bill
Minnesota +13 1/2 (5 units)
Wake Forest -4 (5 units)
La Tech -12 1/2 (5 units)
Washington +7 1/2 (5 units)
BYU -4 (5 units)
Marshall -7 (5 units)
Tulsa -5 1/2 (5 units)
Stanford +22 1/2 (5 units)
So Florida -7 1/2 (5 units)
Washington St +36 1/2 (5 units)
Troy +19 1/2 (5 units)
Texas A&M +8 (5 units)
Navy-ND Over 50 1/2 (5 units)
NW-Michigan Under 46 (5 units)
USC-Stanford Over 48 (5 units)
Boise-Idaho Over 59 1/2 (5 units)
Rutgers-SO FLA Over 49 (5 units)
Colin Cowherd
Stanford 17-30 to cover against USC
Texas 45-20 over Kansas
Notre Dame 22-17 over Navy
Ohio State 33-17 over Illini (Easy $$ Blowout)
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SPORTS ADVISORS
(24) South Carolina (7-3, 6-3 ATS) at (3) Florida (8-1 SU and ATS)
South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier returns to his old “chomping” grounds in the Swamp, hoping to lead his Gamecocks to an SEC upset win over red-hot Florida, which has battled its way back into national championship contention.
A week after pummeling hated Georgia 49-10, the Gators avoided the dreaded letdown last week at Vanderbilt, jumping out to a 42-0 lead and cruising to a 42-14 victory as a 23½-point road favorite. QB Tim Tebow (171 passing yards, 88 rushing yards, 3 total TDs) accounted for 259 of Florida’s 422 total yards and half of its six touchdowns as the Gators won their fifth in a row (5-0 ATS) and clinched the SEC East and an a berth in the league championship game against No. 1 Alabama.
Not only has Florida ripped off five straight wins since its shocking 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss, but all five have come by 28 points or more. In fact, Urban Meyer’s squad has outscored the opposition 355-76 in its eight wins, all of them coming by at least 23 points.
South Carolina enters this contest on a roll, having won six of its last seven, including the last two in a row over Tennessee (27-6 as a six-point home favorite on Nov. 1) and Arkansas (34-21 as a 12½-point home chalk last week). The Gamecocks barely outgained the Razorbacks 351-309, but they had a 132-54 edge in rushing, and the defense had three interceptions.
The Gators went to South Carolina last year and spanked the Gators 51-31 as a seven-point road favorite, finishing with a 153-yard edge in total offense (537-384) as Tebow accounted for all seven of Florida’s touchdowns (2 passing, 5 rushing). Florida is 16-1 SU all-time in the series, but the Gamecocks have cashed in two of three since Spurrier became their coach, including a 17-16 loss as a 13-point underdog in his only previous return trip to Gainesville.
South Carolina’s current 4-1 ATS run has all come in SEC action, and the ‘Cocks are also on pointspread streaks of 11-4 on the road, 9-2-1 as a road underdog, 5-1 as a double-digit underdog, 5-2-1 on grass, 6-2 in November, 11-5-1 against teams with a winning record and 10-4 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, in addition to its 5-0 ATS run overall (all against SEC foes), Florida is on spread rolls of 9-2 at home, 6-0 in November and Florida 12-5-1 as a home chalk.
Florida has topped the total in four straight games and is on further over runs of 5-1 at home, 5-1 in November, 20-8 on grass and 13-3 after an ATS win. Also, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series. However, the under is 25-11-1 in South Carolina’s last 37 road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(10) Ohio State (8-2, 3-6 ATS) at Illinois (5-5, 4-5 ATS)
Rapidly maturing redshirt freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor faces his second straight Big Ten road test when he leads Ohio State into Memorial Stadium for a meeting with Illinois.
Pryor shook off a poor performance in the Buckeyes’ 13-6 home loss to Penn State with a sterling effort against Northwestern last week, passing for 197 yards and three touchdowns en rout to a 45-10 rout as an 11-point road favorite. Pryor, who attempted just 14 passes and competed nine, also had 33 rushing yards, while RB Beanie Wells chipped in 140 rushing yards and two TDs as Ohio State finished with a 441-294 edge in total offense.
Illinois’ road woes continued in last week’s surprising 23-17 loss at Western Michigan as a seven-point road favorite. QB Juice Williams threw two more interceptions, running his season total to 14, and the Illini never led after the midway point of the second quarter. Illinois has alternated wins and losses in its last eight games and alternated spread-covers in its last six, though Ron Zook’s team is 4-1 at home in 2008 (2-2 ATS).
Illinois handed Ohio State its first and only regular-season loss last year, going to Columbus and winning 28-21 as a 15½-point road underdog. The Illini dominated the contest, piling up 400 total yards (260 rushing) and allowing 336 (180 rushing), and Williams tossed four TD passes. The visitor is on an 8-2 SU roll in this rivalry, but Illinois is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings (3-1 ATS in the last four as an underdog).
Ohio State has yet to cash in any of its five home games this year, but Jim Tressel’s squad is 3-1 ATS on the road, improving to 14-4 ATS in its last 18 on the highway. Additionally, the Buckeyes are on pointspread streaks of 13-3 as a road favorite (3-0 this year), 25-10 against Big Ten foes and 8-3 in November, but they’ve failed to cash in six straight games on field turf. Meanwhile, the Illini are on positive ATS rolls of 7-2 in conference, 9-1 as an underdog in Big Ten games, 4-1 in November and 4-0 following a non-cover.
The over is 6-1-1 in Illinois’ last nine Big Ten tilts and 5-1 in OSU’s last six in November. However, the under is on a 3-1 roll in this rivalry, and each of the last three clashes at Illinois have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(17) North Carolina (7-2, 5-3 ATS) at Maryland (6-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Tar Heels, off to their best start in more than a decade, travel to Maryland for an ACC battle with the Terrapins.
North Carolina has won five of its last six (4-2 ATS) and dominated Georgia Tech on Saturday, winning 28-7 as 5½-point home favorites. The Tar Heels are averaging 30.8 points and 327.9 yards per game, but got outgained 423-314 against the Yellow Jackets. UNC averages 132.3 yards rushing and now faces a Maryland defense giving up 152.3 rushing ypg.
Maryland is 5-0 (3-1 ATS) at home this season, outscoring the opposition 153-82. But last week the Terps went to Virginia Tech and fell 23-13 as a three-point ‘dog, getting outgained 400-228 and finishing with minus-12 yards rushing. Maryland has already upset three Top-25 teams this season, outscoring those ranked foes by an average of 12.3 points.
Both teams are 3-2 in ACC play, with North Carolina residing in second place in the Coastal Division, one-half game behind Miami, Fla., while Maryland is a game back of both Wake Forest and Florida State in the Atlantic Division.
North Carolina got a 16-13 home win over the Terps last year, cashing as a two-point favorite and snapping a four-game SU losing skid and a seven-game ATS slide in this rivalry. The last time these two squared off in Maryland was in 2003 when the Terrapins delivered a 59-21 thumping as a 17-point favorite. The straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
The Heels are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after a spread-cover, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record. Maryland is on ATS slides of 5-11 in ACC play and 2-6 in November, but the Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four after a straight-up loss.
For North Carolina, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 November games, while the over is 4-1 in their last five roadies and 4-1 in their last five against teams with a winning record. Maryland has topped the total in four of its last five at home, but otherwise the under is on several streaks for the Terps, including 4-1 overall, 6-1 in ACC games, 5-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 following a non-cover. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four clashes in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND
(4) Texas (9-1, 7-3 ATS) at Kansas (6-4, 5-4 ATS)
Texas will try to beat Kansas for the seventh straight time when it travels to Lawrence for a Big 12 meeting with the slumping Jayhawks.
The Longhorns rebounded from their first loss of the season two weeks ago by downing Baylor 45-21 in Austin, failing to cash as a 27-point home favorite, the team’s third straight non-cover after a 7-0 ATS start. QB Colt McCoy threw five touchdown passes to continue his stellar campaign, as the junior is completing 78 percent of his throws for 2,879 yards, 28 TDs and seven INTs.
Kansas has dropped three of its last four (2-2 ATS), including a 45-35 loss in Nebraska on Saturday, coming up well short as a 1½-point ‘dog. The Jayhawks gave up 495 yards, including 328 through the air. Kansas QB Todd Reesing was just 15-of-30 passing, but had 304 yards, three TDs and one INT. Reesing has thrown for 2,940 yards this season with 23 TDs, but his 10 INTs are tied for the Big 12 lead.
Texas is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) against Kansas dating back to 1996, with all but one victory coming by 14 points or more. These two haven’t met since 2005 when the Longhorns crushed the Jayhawks 66-14 in Austin as a 32-point home favorite. However, the last time they went to Kansas, the ‘Horns barely escaped with a 27-23 win, scoring the game-winning TD with 11 seconds left to fall well short as 23-point favorites.
Texas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven November games, but otherwise the Longhorns are on ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 25-12-1 after a non-cover and 9-3 against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, despite its recent struggles, the Jayhawks remain on a host of ATS streaks, including 20-6 overall, 11-3 at home, 14-5 in Big 12 games, 10-4 in November contests and 5-0 coming off a non-cover.
Texas is in the midst of a bevy of over streaks, including 6-1 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 8-1 in conference action, 5-0 in November and 4-0 following a non-cover. Kansas also is on several over streaks, including 4-0 overall, 10-2 in November, 4-0 in conference play and 5-2 at home against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cal (6-3, 7-2 ATS) at (23) Oregon State (6-3 SU and ATS)
Oregon State’s quest for its first Pac-10 championship in more than 40 years continues went it returns to Reser Stadium for a home game against Cal.
The Beavers shook out of a first-half funk against UCLA last week, outscoring the Bruins 31-3 over the final 30 minutes on their way to a 34-6 victory – their fourth in a row – covering as a 7½-point road chalk. Oregon State, which cracked the Top 25 for the first time this year with the win, finished with 423 total yards to UCLA’s 234, including a 205-45 advantage in rushing yards, easily improving to 6-1 ATS in its last seven.
Oregon State, which opened the season with a 36-28 Pac-10 road loss to Stanford, has since won five straight league games (4-1 ATS) and is a half-game behind USC in the league standings. However, the Beavers control their own destiny in the conference race based on their stunning 27-21 home win over the then-No. 1 Trojans back on Sept. 5.
Cal went to USC last week and became the latest team to get stonewalled by the top-rated Trojans defense, managing just 165 total yards (27 rushing) in a 17-3 road defeat. On the bright side, the Bears easily cashed as a 22-point road underdog, their third straight ATS win and their eighth spread-cover in the last 10 games dating to last year’s bowl victory over Air Force. It’s been a stark turnaround in the pointspread department for Cal, which failed to cash in its final seven regular-season games in 2007.
This has been a road-dominated series the last five years, with the visitor going 5-0 SU and ATS. Last year, the Beavers’ traveled south and stunned then-No. 2 Cal 31-28 as a 14-point underdog, costing the Bears their first No. 1 ranking in 56 years. Going back to 1999, Oregon State is 7-2 SU against Cal, and the Beavers have covered in 14 of the last 21 series clashes.
Despite its current 8-2 ATS tear and last week’s cover at USC, Cal is still just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games, 2-6 ATS in its last eight in November and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 following a SU defeat. Meanwhile, Oregon State carries ATS trends of 13-3 overall, 38-18-1 in Corvalis (9-3 last 12), 17-8 in November, 4-0 in Pac-10 play, 10-1 on artificial turf and 42-17 after an ATS triumph.
For the Bears, the under is on runs of 9-4-1 on the road, 6-1 in November, 7-2 against winning teams and 7-3 after a defeat. The under is also 5-2 in Oregon State’s last seven home games. Lastly, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these schools at Reser Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and UNDER
Arizona (6-3 SU and ATS) at Oregon (7-3, 4-6 ATS)
Arizona goes for its third straight win over Oregon when it pays a visit to Autzen Stadium in this Pac-10 battle.
The Wildcats hit the highway last week and claimed a 59-28 victory over lowly Washington State, but came up well short as a 41-point road chalk despite eye-popping advantages of 531-208 in total offense, 28-12 in first downs, 4-2 in turnovers and 37½-22½ minutes in time of possession.
Oregon got a 6-yard touchdown run with six seconds left to erase a 28-27 deficit and beat Stanford 35-28. However, the Ducks failed to cash as a 14-point favorite, dropping to 2-6 ATS in their last six games (2-4 ATS in Pac-10 play). Oregon outgained Stanford 451-325 (307-187 on the ground), but it lost four fumbles.
Neither team is playing consistent football right now, with both going 4-3 in their last seven, while Arizona has alternated wins and losses both in its last five overall and in all four of its road trips.
The Wildcats snapped a seven-game losing streak to Oregon in 2006 with a stunning 37-10 win at Autzen Stadium as a 14-point road pup. Then last year, the Ducks went to Tucson with an 8-1 record and No. 3 national ranking, but lost starting QB Dennis Dixon to an injury early in the contest and Arizona prevailed 34-24 as a 10½-point home ‘dog. The ‘Cats have cashed in the last three meetings – all as a double-digit pup – after Oregon had gone 4-0 ATS in the previous four.
Arizona is on positive pointspread runs of 10-3 overall, 8-2 in Pac-10 play, 7-0 as an underdog, 6-0 against winning teams, 6-2 in November and 6-0 versus winning teams. On the flip side, in addition to its current 2-6 ATS nosedive, Oregon is in pointspread funks of 1-4 in Pac-10 play, 0-3 at home, 2-4 as a favorite, 1-4 on artificial turf, 0-5 against winning teams and 0-4 in November.
For Oregon, the over is on runs of 5-2-2 overall and 4-1-1 at home, and the Wildcats have topped the total in six of their last seven on turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
(13) Georgia (8-2, 3-6 ATS) at Auburn (5-5, 1-8 ATS)
Auburn, which has lost four straight games to Division I-A teams, tries to get back on track when it hosts SEC rival Georgia at Jordan Hare Stadium.
The Tigers took their frustrations out on Division I-AA Tennessee-Martin last week, rolling 37-20 in a non-lined contest. Auburn’s offense, which has struggled all season, put up a season high in points last week after producing an average of 14.8 points in four previous losses. Tommy Tuberville’s squad has dropped three straight SEC contests and hasn’t covered a pointspread since a season-opening 34-0 rout of Louisiana-Monroe, a span of eight games.
Georgia bounced back from an ugly 49-10 loss to archrival Florida with a narrow 42-38 victory at Kentucky last week, falling well short as a 13-point road favorite. The Bulldogs, who are 1-5 ATS in their last six games (0-4 ATS as a favorite), had a 520-331-yard edge in total offense against the Wildcats, but needed an 11-yard TD pass from Matthew Stafford to AJ Green with 1:54 to play to secure the victory.
The Bulldogs have trashed Auburn each of the last two years, winning 45-20 as a 1½-point home chalk last year and 37-15 as an 11½-point road underdog in 2006. Georgia is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings, the visitor is 11-4-1 in the last 15 battles (11-5 ATS), and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 clashes.
Despite their current 1-5 ATS slump, the Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six true road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win. On the other hand, as part of their ongoing 0-8 ATS slide, the Tigers are 0-4 ATS at home, 0-6 ATS in SEC play, 0-5 ATS on grass and 0-4 ATS against winning teams.
While Georgia is putting up 32.6 points and 437 total yards per game, Auburn’s offense is netting a paltry 19.5 points and 315.4 yards per contest. The Tigers do rate a slight edge on defense, yielding 16.3 points and 305 yards per game compared with Georgia’s 25 points and 309 yards per game.
For Auburn, the under is on runs of 8-3 overall, 6-2 at home, 11-4 against SEC foes and 5-2 on grass. Georgia has topped the total in three straight overall, two straight on the road and five of its last six November outings. Also, the over is on a 3-0 run in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(6) USC (8-1, 5-3 ATS) at Stanford (5-5, 6-4 ATS)
USC heads up the California coast looking to avenge one of the biggest upset losses in college football history when it meets Stanford in a Pac-10 clash.
The Trojans’ offense rolled up 411 total yards but struggled to put points on the board last week against Cal, but the defense came to the rescue again in a 17-3 home victory, the team’s sixth in a row. USC, which never threatened to cover as a hefty 22-point home favorite, allowed just 165 yards of total offense (27 rushing yards) against the Bears.
USC’s defense has surrendered a total of 23 points in six games since a 27-21 loss at Oregon State, and Pete Carroll’s stop unit continues to lead the nation in scoring defense (6.7 ppg allowed), total defense (206.4 total ypg allowed) and passing defense (128.7 ypg allowed), while ranking third in rushing defense (77.8 ypg allowed).
The Cardinal have alternated SU wins and losses in their last six games, falling at Oregon last week 35-28 but cashing as a 14-point road underdog. Stanford, which has scored at least 20 points in seven straight games, led 28-27 before giving up the game-winning touchdown on a 6-yard run with six seconds left to play. Jim Harbaugh’s squad got outgained 451-325 in the defeat, but forced four turnovers (all fumbles).
Last year, Stanford went to Los Angeles as a 41-point road underdog and stunned the second-ranked Trojans 24-23, scoring the game-winning TD on a 10-yard pass on fourth-and-goal to end a five-game winning streak against USC. The Cardinal trailed by 11 points with less than six minutes to go and won despite getting outgained 459-235. Stanford is now 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, all as an underdog, but the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this rivalry.
USC has alternated spread-covers in each of its last seven games and is 1-2 ATS in Pac-10 roadies this year and 5-10 ATS in its last 15 conference games. However, the Trojans are 25-0 SU in November under Carroll and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 November contests. Meanwhile, the Cardinal are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in Pac-10 play and 5-0 at home (4-0 this year).
For USC, the under is on streaks of 20-7-1 overall (6-2-1 this year), 21-5-1 in Pac-10 action (5-1-1 this year), 20-6-1 on grass and 6-2-1 in November. Stanford also carries several “under” trends into today’s contest, including 48-23-1 overall, 39-16-1 in league play, 5-2 at home, 5-2-1 in November and 18-8 on grass. However, the over is 7-3 in Stanford’s 10 contests this season, 9-3 in the last 12 Stanford-USC tussles overall and 4-1 in the last five clashes in Palo Alto.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(11) Oklahoma State (8-2, 8-1 ATS) at Colorado (5-5, 2-7 ATS)
Colorado looks to win consecutive games for the first time since starting the season 3-0 when it hosts a disappointed Oklahoma State squad in a Big 12 battle at Folsom Field.
Oklahoma State started the season 7-0, but its dreams of a Big 12 championship and BCS bowl bid have gone out the window with two losses in the last three weeks. First, the Cowboys fell 28-24 at Texas on Oct. 25, then after a 59-17 bounce-back home win over Iowa State, they went to No. 2 Texas Tech last Saturday and got squashed 56-20 as a 3½-point underdog – the first time this season Mike Gundy’s team failed to bring home the cash.
In Lubbock, Oklahoma State was held to a season low in points and finished on the short end of a 629-368 discrepancy in total offense, yielding 456 passing yards and six TDs to Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell.
Colorado earned just its second Big 12 victory a week ago, holding off Iowa State 28-24 but failing to cover as a 9½-point home chalk, the team’s seventh straight non-cover. The 28 points the Buffaloes scored last week were the most since putting up 31 against Eastern Washington in Week 2, a span of eight games. Meanwhile, the CU defense has given up an average of 35.3 points in its last three contests.
The Buffaloes are on an 11-2 SU roll in this rivalry, but the Cowboys are 8-5 ATS during this stretch, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight. In the most recent meeting in 2005, Colorado scored a 34-0 shutout win as a 3½-point home chalk.
Despite dropping two of its last three games, Oklahoma State is still riding positive pointspread runs of 9-1 overall, 5-1 in Big 12 play this season, 6-2 on the highway, 10-0 as a double-digit favorite and 7-1 after a SU defeat. As for the Buffs, in addition to their ongoing 0-7 ATS rut, they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games, 7-20 ATS in their last 27 conference contests, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 as an underdog and 1-5 ATS in their last six in November.
The under is 7-1 in OSU’s last eight road games (the one “over” coming last week) and 4-1 in Colorado’s last five overall, However, when playing in November, the over is on runs of 18-7 for Oklahoma State and 7-1 for Colorado.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
Boston College (6-3, 4-4 ATS) at (20) Florida State (7-2, 4-3 ATS)
Florida State tries to keep its ACC Atlantic Division title hopes alive when it welcomes league rival Boston College to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.
The Seminoles improved to 5-1 in their last six games with last week’s 41-27 waxing of Clemson, easily cashing as a four-point home favorite. Florida State, which is tied with Wake Forest atop the Atlantic Division standings at 4-2 (3-3 ATS), fell behind 10-0 halfway through the first quarter but ended up with 419 total yards (266 rushing) while holding the Tigers to 316 yards (79 rushing).
Boston College took a break from ACC play last Saturday and blanked Notre Dame 17-0 – its third shutout of the season – cashing as a 3½-point home chalk to halt a two-game SU and ATS slide. The Eagles actually got outgained 292-246, but they outrushed the Irish 167-66 and they picked off Jimmy Clausen four times. B.C. is out of the Atlantic Division race, sitting in fourth place at 2-3 (1-4 ATS) in ACC play.
These teams have met each of the last three years since the Eagles joined the ACC, and the visitor has won all three contests SU and ATS. Last year, the Seminoles went to Boston and handed the second-ranked Eagles their first loss of the season, 27-17 as a 6½-point road underdog. That avenged FSU’s 24-19 home loss to Boston College as a seven-point favorite in 2006.
Boston College is mired in pointspread funks of 1-6 in ACC play, 2-5 in November, 1-4 on grass and 0-6 following a spread-cover, but the Eagles have covered in nine of their last 11 as a road underdog since 2003. Meanwhile, Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six lined games at Doak Walker.
The Seminoles, who average 36 points per game, have scored at least 26 points during their current 5-1 SU run, and they average 392.4 total yards per game (201 rushing ypg). However, tonight they run up against a Boston College defense that yields just 17 points and 276.7 total yards per game. FSU’s defense is also stout, allowing 19.3 points and 264.8 yards per outing.
The over is 5-1 in B.C.’s last six games overall (4-0 in ACC play), but the under is 7-3 in its last 10 on the road and 11-4 in its last 15 on grass. For Florida State, the over is on streaks of 5-1 overall (4-1 in conference) and 8-2 against winning teams. Also, all three series meetings between these schools have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and OVER
(25) Tulsa (8-1, 6-2 ATS) at Houston (5-4, 3-5 ATS)
The Golden Hurricane will try to rebound from their first loss of the season when they travel to Houston for a key Conference USA West Division matchup.
Tulsa rattled off eight straight wins to start the season (6-1-1 ATS) and had hopes of a BCS bowl bid, but those hopes went out the window on Nov. 1 with a 30-23 loss at Arkansas as a seven-point favorite. Now the Golden Hurricane turn their attention to the West Division of C-USA, as they lead Rice by a half game and sit one game ahead of Houston.
Tulsa’s offense leads Division I-A with 52 points and 593 yards per game, but in Arkansas the offense managed just three points second-half points and none in the fourth quarter, its first scoreless quarter this season. QB David Johnson threw for 322 yards, one TD and an INT and has just two TD passes in his last two games after tossing 31 in his first seven games.
Houston gained a season-high 693 yards in last Saturday’s 42-14 win over Tulane, cashing as 17½-point favorites. The Cougars have won four of their last five games (3-2 ATS) after dropping three straight (0-3 ATS) in September. Houston is fourth in the nation in total offense with 547.3 yards per game and the team has scored at least 41 points in four of its last five games. QB Case Keenum leads the Cougars’ attack, throwing for 3,385 yards, 29 TDs and nine INTs.
The Golden Hurricane stomped Houston last season 56-7 in Oklahoma in a pick-em contest, snapping a two-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Cougars. The straight-up winner is 8-0 ATS in this series dating to 1985.
Tulsa is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road, 4-10 coming off a non-cover and 0-6 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but the Golden Hurricane are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five C-USA games. Houston hasn’t been a good bet lately, currently stuck in ATS slides of 3-10 overall, 2-6 at home, 17-35 after a spread-cover, 1-7 after a straight-up win and 1-5 against teams with a winning record.
For Tulsa, the under is on runs of 9-3 against teams with a winning record, 5-0 after a straight-up loss and 7-0 on grass. Meanwhile, for the Cougars, the under runs include 10-4 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-2 in conference games and 5-0 in November. Lastly, the under has been the play in the last three series clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
San Diego at UNLV
UNLV begins its quest for a third straight NCAA Tournament appearance when it opens the season at the Thomas & Mack center against San Diego, which is looking to make a second consecutive trip to the Big Dance.
The Rebels (27-8, 18-12-1 ATS last year) won a second straight Mountain West Conference championship last year and closed the season on an 8-2 run (6-3-1 ATS). They upset Kent State 71-58 as a 1½-point underdog in the first round of the NCAA Tournament before losing to eventual national champion Kansas 75-56 as a 13½-point underdog in the second round.
San Diego (22-14, 22-10 ATS) took advantage of the fact the West Coast Conference tournament was played in its home gym in March, knocking off Pepperdine, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga on consecutive days to claim the conference crown and a berth in the NCAA Tournament. Once there, the Toreros stunned UConn 70-69 as a 12½-point underdog in the opening round before bowing out in a 72-63 loss to Western Kentucky as a five-point pup. The Toreros finished the season on a 14-3 SU run and a 14-4 ATS roll.
UNLV went to San Diego last November and dominated the Toreros 66-55, cashing as a two-point road underdog.
Including the Mountain West tournament, which was played at the Thomas & Mack in Las Vegas, UNLV went 21-2 at home (11-6 ATS in lined games). The Rebels come into this season riding a 15-game home winning streak (7-4 ATS). Meanwhile, San Diego went 9-8 on the highway in 2007-08, but 13-4 ATS.
The Toreros enter the season on ATS streaks of 20-7 overall, 47-20 on the road, 36-17 in non-conference play, 5-2 against Mountain West foes and 4-1 when playing on Saturday. UNLV is riding pointspread runs of 18-6-2 at home, 24-9-1 in non-conference action and 37-18-3 on Saturdays.
The under is on runs of 8-3-2 for UNLV overall and 4-1 for San Diego against the Mountain West. Also, last year’s meeting between these teams stayed well under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Butler at Drake
Two mid-majors coming off NCAA Tournament appearances hook up in a non-conference game for the second straight season as Drake hosts Butler in a battle of Bulldogs.
Drake (28-5, 20-8-1 ATS) started last season on a 22-1 run (15-4 ATS) – including a 21-game winning streak – and climbed to as high as 14th in the national rankings en route to winning the Missouri Valley Conference’s regular-season and tournament championships. However, Drake’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1971 didn’t last long, as the fifth-seeded Bulldogs lost to Western Kentucky 101-99 on a last-second shot in overtime, failing to cover as a four-point favorite.
Butler (30-4, 16-15 ATS) won the Horizon League championship last year, reached No. 11 in the rankings and made it to the second round of the Big Dance. But like Drake, Butler’s season ended in overtime, as it fell 76-71 to second-seeded Tennessee as a 4½-point underdog. Butler has started off the last two seasons with SU winning streaks of eight in a row and 10 in a row, and the Bulldogs began 5-0 ATS two years ago and 4-0 ATS last season.
Drake handed Butler one of its three regular-season losses last season – and its only home defeat – prevailing 71-64 as a 5½-point road underdog in a Bracket Buster Saturday game in late February. Drake went 14-1 SU and 7-4 ATS at home last season, while Butler was 15-3 (8-7 ATS) as a visitor.
In addition to its 20-8-1 ATS roll last season, Drake is on pointspread streaks of 11-5 at home, 20-8 in non-conference play and 10-3 on Saturdays. Meanwhile, Butler is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 non-league contests and 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Missouri Valley Conference.
For Butler, the over is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference action and 6-2 against the Missouri Valley Conference. Also, Drake enters the year on over streaks of 12-2 overall, 7-1 at home and 5-1 on Saturday. Finally, last year’s meeting between these teams soared over the 127½-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Johnny Guild
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators
Florida Gators look to win their 12 straight game against the South Carolina Gamecocks in Gainesville.Without doubt, the Gamecocks have a sound defense, rank 10th in scoring defense at 15.6 point per game and third in total defense at 256.5 yards per game. Their defense may be tough, but offensively can’t match Tebow and his crew. Florida has won their last five games by an average of 37 points.Florida battered them last season and Tim Tebow threw for five touchdowns for 304 yards, rushing for 120 yards in a 51-31 victory in South Carolina. Take the Gators to win this battle convincingly in the Swamp.
Florida Gators -21
Texas Longhorns -13
Minnesota Golden Gophers +14
Alabama Crimson Tide -20.5