Jeff Benton
I'm on a 7-2 run with free plays in College Football. We'll look to keep that roll going on Saturday, as we’ll grab the big points with Mississippi State against top-ranked Alabama.
No doubt there’s a huge class difference between these teams – Alabama is 10-0 and headed to the SEC championship game and Mississippi State is 3-6 and headed toward another losing season. And I would be stunned if the Crimson Tide lost this game. That said, they better come ready to play today, because the Bulldogs are better than their record. They lost to then-No. 9 Auburn by a single point (3-2 as a 10-point underdog); they went to fifth-ranked LSU and competed all night before falling 34-24 as a 24-point underdog; and they knocked off then-13th-ranked and unbeaten Vanderbilt 17-14. That’s three games against ranked foes, and three spread-covers.
Mississippi State also has an outside shot at a bowl bid if it can win out – of course that would require a win tonight, but that carrot certainly adds to the Bulldogs’ motivation.
Meanwhile, take a look at how Alabama has performed as a double-digit home chalk this year: It covered against lowly Sun Belt Conference opponents Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, but fell well short against Tulane (20-6 win as a 29-point home favorite) as well as SEC foes Kentucky (17-14 win as a 15½-point chalk) and Ole Miss (24-20 win as a 12½-point choice). Not only that, but consider that Alabama has played down to the level of its competition in recent years (3-10 ATS last 13 against losing teams) while Mississippi State has played above its head (7-3 ATS last 10 against winning teams). Also, the Tide have been a horrible bet in Tuscaloosa the last four years (7-20-2 ATS last 29 home games).
Throw in the fact that Mississippi State is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Alabama, winning the last two outright and cashing in each of its last four trips to Tuscaloosa, and I’ll take these big points in a heartbeat.
4♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the gargantuan number with the Hoosiers of Indiana in Happy Valley.
Penn State watched their national championship hopes go by the boards last week in Iowa and truly cannot be expected to rally back well enough to cover a number such as this in a conference game in this spot.
Sure Indiana is fairly awful and possibly the worst team in a down Big Ten Conference but the Hoosiers at least have a Quarterback in Kellen Lewis that is semi athletic and can make a few plays. Lewis has been banged up recently but it does appear that he will be good enough to go here and even if not this price is still too much.
Penn State is still a very very good team that will have athletes all over the field but in a noon kickoff after the terrible loss last week in Iowa just cannot be expected to win this thing by the number, no how no way. Look back over the past few games and you see a Penn State team that has shown some chinks in the armor. They were losing by double digits early on against Michigan before the huge rally and cover. Then the next week JoPa's team was far from great in that late win in Ohio State and last week fell in Iowa against a good but not great Hawkeyes' squad.
There is just no real motivation for the Penn State players and especially when you also factor in how a quality Michigan State team is on deck in a game that could prove to be for the prestigious Rose Bowl.
Let's recap all of the negatives against PSU:
A loss last week killing the National Championship!
A look-ahead spot with Michigan State up next for the Rose Bowl!
A Penn State team playing little old "Indiana"!
A noon kickoff is never great for the big chalk!
The Nittany Lions will win this game and probably with relative ease but the number is too much as this thing ends something like 41-13!
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Wisconsin -13 vs Minnesota
Houston +4.5 vs Tulsa
Louisiana Tech -13 vs Utah State
USC -24 vs Stanford
Single Plays
Iowa -17.5 vs Purdue
UConn -10 vs Syracuse
Mississippi St +22 vs Alabama
Notre Dame -4 vs Navy
Ohio State -9 vs Illinois
Western Michigan -16 vs Toledo
Texas -13.5 vs Kansas
Baylor -8 vs Texas A&M
Florida State -6 vs Boston College
Florida State/Boston College Under 44.5
Reply With Quote
Bob Balfe
Auburn +10 over Georgia
Auburn finally got a win after 4 straight losses. Now it was a win over Tennessee Martin, but they are off the losing streak. Auburn plays great defense and at home they will give Georgia all they have trying to get bowl eligible. The betting public is all over Georgia and I would not be shocked to see an upset. Look for a tight defensive battle. Take Auburn.
Cajun Sports
Mississippi St vs. Alabama
Play: Mississippi St +22
The nation's #1 team puts its perfect record on the line Saturday as the Crimson Tide host the Bulldogs in SEC play. It hasn’t been a great season for Mississippi State, as the team comes in with a 3-6 record, including a tough 14-13 home loss to Kentucky 2 weeks ago. They have been idle since November 1st and figure to be well-rested for this weekend's road clash, where they will try to make their season with a huge upset victory.
Alabama was pushed to overtime by LSU on the road last weekend, but pulled out the 27-21 victory. Saban, who is 10-0 for the first time ever as a head coach, has turned 'Bama into a national power a bit faster than most fans and analysts expected. The SEC title game is already set, as the Tide will play Florida in the championship game, but the team is now trying to take care of business the next w2 weeks to carry an undefeated record into that showdown with the Gators.
Mississippi State relies on their defense, as they have been one of the weakest offensive teams in the nation this season, with the squad averaging only 16 ppg.
Opponents are posting 21 ppg and less than 300 total ypg against the solid Bulldogs “D”.
Overall this season, Alabama is averaging nearly 32 ppg, although they could manage only 21 points through 4 quarters last week, as they sputtered against the Tigers defense. Opponents are managing a mere 13 ppg against the Crimson Tide, who are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, although teams have had success running on Alabama in recent games, something Mississippi State will certainly look to be doing here, along with their defense keeping them close.
The Bulldogs are embracing this opportunity to play a #1 team for the sixth time in program history, and only its first since 1998. State has won against #1 one other time -- Alabama, in 1980.
"It's a great opportunity for us as a football team," Bulldogs coach Croom said. "It's rare that you get a chance to play the #1 team in the country during the course of the season. That opportunity has been afforded us and we're going to prepare as best as we possibly can and go over there and play as well as we possibly can in the hopes of winning a game, on the road, in Tuscaloosa, against the #1 team in the country."
They actually should have a fair amount of confidence coming in here, as State has beaten the Crimson Tide two straight years, not allowing an offensive TD in either game.
In looking at some numbers, we note that Mississippi State is:
2-0 ATS this season as an underdog of more than 9 points;
3-0 ATS this season vs. undefeated opponents;
6-0-1 ATS (+14.4 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 9 points and not off a non-lined SU win over the past 3 seasons;
3-0 ATS the past 2 seasons as an underdog vs. opponents playing with revenge;
5-0 ATS with rest, including winning the last 4 SU, the last 3 of which were as underdogs, including a victory over Alabama.
Despite being unbeaten, Alabama has some concerns, with QB John Parker Wilson being less than stellar after his outstanding 13-of-16 game against Georgia. In five games since then, he's thrown only two touchdowns and four interceptions, and the passing game has fallen to 100th in the NCAA. Additionally, LSU ran for 201 yards against the Tide defense, and since the open week opposing teams have rushed for over 120 yards per game. Depth has always been the worry for Alabama, and this is the time of the season when players start to get worn down. Coming off a very hard-fought OT game at LSU won’t help matters either.
It should come as no surprise, that with little rest off an overtime game, teams facing rested opponents have not fared well. In fact, we have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 29 points or underdog of 11+ points) with less than 8 days rest off an OT game vs. an opponent with 10+ days rest and not off an overtime shutout SU loss.
Just since 2004, these teams are 0-14 ATS! The Crimson Tide qualified as a “Play AGAINST” team last season and failed to cover the spread, and now they qualify once again.
In looking at some more technical information, we Alabama is:
0-6 ATS as a home favorite of less than 27 points vs. a sub-.500% opponent;
0-8 ATS & 1-12 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points before playing Auburn.
We keep an eye on the pointspread from opening to closing, and a couple of things have caught our notice here.
First, we like to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happened a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.
Secondly, we look to play AGAINST a team that was faded by a strong early line move and then favored by later line moves. Early line moves are those that occur in the first few hours after the virgin lines are posted. They are to be respected. The people who move the line early are not fooling around; they are serious players who love to take shots at virgin numbers. The oddsmakers are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage of picking and choosing specific games and when they focus on specific games when they first come out, their opinion should be noted with respect. If a line moves strongly during the early period and then heads in the other direction in the normal movement period, we usually have a case for the sharp bettors on one side and the public on the other - a definite scenario for respecting the early move.
Here, we get the best of both situations. Alabama opened as a 20½-point favorite – a ½-point under the key number of 21. The early sharp bettor not only did not bite on Crimson Tide, they went the other way, jumping on the Bulldogs, which dropped the line a full point to 19½ points Sunday night; however, during the week, the public has bet the Tide heavily enough that the oddsmakers responded by bumping the line up and over that 21 key number to 22 points and more.
We’ll back the defensive dogs and fade the public live move, as we look for the Bulldogs to give the tired Crimson Tide quite the scare.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ALABAMA 21 MISSISSIPPI STATE 20
John Fina
Selection: Notre Dame -4.5
Reason: Put us down on Notre Dame -4.5 for our Free College Football Selection on Saturday. Last season when these two teams met in South Bend, Navy beat Notre Dame. The Midshipmen defeated the Fighting Irish 46-44 in triple overtime. This matchup will be a huge revenge game for the Fighting Irish, a chance to salvage their pride and redeem themselves from last season’s loss. Notre Dame has lost 3 of their last 4 games which provides good value for us this week. The Midshipmen have lost head coach Paul Johnson, their star quarterback, and returned just five offensive starters, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting their performance at all. Navy has still managed to win 5 of the last 6 games including 2 consecutive wins. For the 6th season in a row, Navy is once again bowl eligible. This performance is exactly opposite from the general opinion that Navy was going through a rebuilding phase. However, this success did not come easy. Navy’s success has a lot to do with luck since 4 of their 6 wins came by a touchdown or less. The Midshipmen were outgained by their opponents in 5 out of 9 games. As for this season, Navy’s numbers are unexceptional, and so they are only in the +1.9 yards per game margin. While one could argue that in rushing offense Navy is ranked 2nd in the nation, they are ranked at only 51st in total offense and at 73rd for total defense. Navy is much better in turnovers with a rank of 18th in the country but the Midshipmen are not big on interceptions. The Fighting Irish offense has improved significantly this season moving up to a rank of 50th from the absolute worst in the country last season. This week, Charlie Weis has taken over the play calling for the struggling Irish, because Offensive coordinator isn’t worth his salt but won’t be available anyway. In the last two weeks, Notre Dame has faced two excellent defenses, so they will be prepared here while also getting a break. Lay the points! Take Notre Dame -4.5!
LT Profits
North Carolina State +4.0
Both of these teams have very deceptive records, as the North Carolina State olfpack have been very competitive despite being just 3-6 straight up, while the Wake Forest Demon Deacons have actually underachieved while going 6-3.
Case in point is that NC State is currently on a 4-0 run against the spread, and they are 6-1 ATS in their seven lined games since an opening week loss at South Carolina.
The Wolfpack are coming off of a nice 27-17 outright road upset of Duke, and they are averaging a nice 24.4 points and 313.0 total yards per game at home. Comparatively, Wake Forest is averaging just 15.8 points and 280.8 total yards on the road.
Now granted, NC State has a one dimensional passing offense, but that may actually not be a negative in this case. That is because the Demon Deacons are allowing only 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, so the best way to attack this defense is by throwing the ball and making big plays.
If the Wolfpack are successful, Wake Forest has been a major disappointment offensively and we feel they would be unable to match NC State if this turns into somewhat of a shootout. In fact, the Deacons have yet to score more then 12 points in their three conference road games.
Because of this lack of offense, Wake Forest is just 4-5 ATs despite their winning record, and we are looking for them to lose outright here, although getting more than a field goal with NC State is nice insurance.
Pick: NC State +4
Boston College +6.5
The visiting team has won the last three head-to-head meetings between the Boston College Eagles and the Florida State Seminoles outright, and even if BC does not continue that pattern this week, we do expect the Eagles the cover this spread at the very least.
What makes Boston College dangerous as decided underdogs here is that the play good defense and they run the ball well. The Eagles are allowing just 16.9 points and 276.7 total yards per game, and they are coming off of a dominant defensive performance last week, a 17-0 shutout of Notre Dame.
Offensively, they punished the Irish defense for 167 yards on the ground, raising their season average to 152.4 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. Remember also that the Eagles have some major revenge on their minds, as it was Florida State that handed then their first loss last season after an 8-0 start.
Now granted Florida State is 7-2 and averaging 35.9 points per game. However, only once this season have they faced a defense that is comparable to Boston College, and not so coincidentally, that resulted in their worst offensive performance of the year in a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest here at home.
While we do expect the Noles to score more than three points this time around, we still expect Boston College to keep the Florida State offense in check enough to get the cover here.
Pick: Boston College +6.5
Sportsbettingstats
Boston College at Florida State
Boston College (6-3) at No.20 Florida State -7 (7-2) - Last week the Golden Eagles beat Notre Dame 17-0 while the Seminoles beat Clemson 41-27. Coming into this game FSU head coach Bobby Bowden suspended 5 WR's because of a an on-campus brawl. However, the Seminoles rely on their rushing game, but if they can't run the ball they may be in trouble with the lack of WR's. The Seminoles are led by Christian Ponder (1421 yds 11 TD 8 INT0 and his main target will be Greg Carr (24 rec 380 yds 2 TD) and that will be about it with the depleted receiving corps of the Seminoles. FSU's rushing attack is led by Antone Smith (632 yds 13 TD). The Golden Eagles are led by QB Chris Crane (1506 yds 9 TD 12 TD) and his main targets are Brandon Robinson (29 rec 470 yds 3 TD) and Rich Gunnell (30 rec 270 yds 1 TD). The Golden Eagles rushing attack is led by Montel Harris (531 yds 4 TD).
Staff Pick: The Seminoles have the nation's 19th ranked rushing offense, in terms of yards per game, and they will be facing a BC defense that ranks 9th in the nation. The Golden Eagles D leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed per game (101.8). For the Golden Eagles to win this game they will have to stop the rushing offense of the Seminoles. FSU has to hold onto the ball and not turn the ball over, as in their last four games, the Eagles have returned an interception, a fumble and 2 punts for touchdowns. BC is among the nation's leaders with 18 interceptions. BC does not have a great offense and they will count on their defense to score some points and give them good field position. The Seminoles rank 5th in the nation on defense, so it will be hard for the Eagles to score many points. The Seminoles are tied with Wake Forrest for the ACC Atlantic lead and look to play in the ACC title game for the first time since 2005. The Seminoles come into this HUGE ACC game on a roll, as they have won 5 of their last 6 games and are undefeated at home this season. There is a good chance of rain in this game, which would give the Seminoles the advantage since they have the better rushing offense. Look for a defensive game, but for the Seminoles to score just enough to win and keep their ACC title hopes alive.
Seminoles 22 Golden Eagles 18
BIG AL
Ohio State at Illinois
Illinois has dominated this series on the Las Vegas scoreboard, going 19-7 ATS since 1980, including 15-1 when priced from -2 to +17 points. And the Illini's only loss in that pointspread range was by a half-point. The Illini have covered eight of of their last 12 as home dogs, and have also covered seven of nine as underdogs of more than seven points in their final home game. Take Ron Zook's men to keep it close here.
Play on: Illinois
VEGAS EXPERTS
BYU at Air Force
Take a look at Air Force's schedule. They haven't beaten anybody of substance. When they faced off with BYU's rival Utah, they were outgained by over 200 yards and had 15 less first downs. The last two times BYU was the road team in this rivalry game, they won outright by 17 and 19 points respectively. Because of their pointspread woes, we are getting tremendous value on this matchup as BYU is long overdue for a cover.
Play on: BYU
Bob Harvey
Texas -13.0
After losing to Texas Tech on November 1st, the Texas Longhorns could have packed it in. The loss knocked Texas out of the No. 1 spot in the AP poll, the BCS standings and the Big 12 South. However A three-touchdown win last week over Baylor shows that the Longhorns have regained a bit of their swagger and don’t feel like their out of the race…yet.Sure Texas could finish the season at 11-1, yet still be sitting on the outside of a conference championship and perhaps BCS berth as well. Mack Brown’s club plays its final road game of the year in Lawrence when they face a Kansas team that has lost three of its last four games and has allowed a whopping 51 PPG in those loses. That’s not good news when you’re facing Colt McCoy and the Texas scoring machine. These two teams haven’t met since 2005 when Texas trounced Kansas 66-14. That could happen again today with a team that needs to rack up some double-digit wins to grab the attention of those who vote in the national polls. Last week, Texas out gained Baylor 494-272 and scored 31 of the game's final 38 points. However no matter what they do the rest of the season, they don’t control their own destiny and would need help to make it to the Big 12 title game. Undefeated Texas Tech, which is idle this week before facing No. 5 Oklahoma and Baylor in its last two regular-season games, has the edge in both races (Big 12 and BCS). The Jayhawks still have a shot at representing the Big 12 North in the conference championship game, trailing division-leader Missouri by one game. But even I try to make a case for Kansas winning at home against a conference rival, those horrible defensive numbers keep coming up. Beside’s allowing 51 ppg over their last four games they’re also allowing 520.0 total yards per game in that stretch. You can’t go wrong with Texas today and I’m even leaning towards making a 2 or 3 unit play on the OVER.Colt McCoy and Texas are going to light up Kansas. You heard it hear first!
JIM FEIST
OKLAHOMA STATE / COLORADO
TAKE: UNDER
Oddsmakers are looking at offensive and defensive numbers with these teams, but not paying attention to the playing surface or the weather. Oklahoma State plays its home games on artificial turf, conducive for fast offensive teams, but this game is on grass. It's also cold and windy in Denver in November, roughly 32 degrees in this evening game. Don't look for as much scoring as oddsmakers think, play Oklahoma State/Colorado under the total.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Boston College
The saying 'paybacks are a bitch' fits this game like a Libertarian candidate feeding his ego - they are both in it for self-serving reasons. Let's set the scene for this contest, a matchup of two Top 10 ranked defenses. Last year the Eagles were sitting pretty, 8-0 and ranked No. 2 in the polls when along came the blood thirsty, money-sucking Seminoles. Out of nowhere FSU pulled the rug on Boston College, stunning the Eagles 27-17 as 7-point road dogs to ruin the hopes and dreams of a perfect season. Today the Seminoles find themselves tied atop the ACC Atlantic Division with BC a game-and-a-half behind. Now, with Bobby's Boys off last week's satisfying come from behind revenge win over Clemson and standing just 1-6 ATS as a host against conference foes seeking revenge, suddenly the shoe is in the other foot. You know what they say...what goes around comes around.
Great Lakes Sports
Notre Dame vs Navy
Play:Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish is a strong 4-2 ATS when playing on grass this year, and they are a very nice 8-3 ATS after a bye week. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish is also 5-2 ATS on the road their last seven games while the Navy Midshipman is a terrible 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs a team with a winning road record. We look for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to grab the ATS win & cover today.
Jimmy The Moose
Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Over
The Maple Leafs have played over the total in 8 straight games. On the road the over is a profitable 6-3. The over is 7-2 in their last 9 games following a win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games played vs. a team with a winning record. Vancouver has been in a lot of low scoring games thanks to Luongo's play between the pipes but when they play the Leafs, the goals come. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the clubs. The over is 10-1 in Toronto's last 11 trips to Vancouver. Play the over.