STEVE MERRIL
Central Florida @ Marshall
PICK: Under 40.5
Central Florida remains one of the worst offensive teams in the nation as they are averaging just 15.7 points per game and a horrendous 3.7 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 27.2 ppg and 5.4 yppl).
Central Florida does have a strong defense that is permitting just 4.8 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.5 yppl), so the Golden Knights should be able to limit a weak Marshall offense that averages just 20.8 points per game and only 5.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 26.3 ppg and 5.6 yppl).
The Under is 5-0 in Marshall’s past five games and the Thundering Herd have scored 21 points or less in six of their past eight games. Meanwhile, the Under is 4-0-1 in Central Florida’s past five games and the Golden Knights have scored 19 points or less in six of their past seven games.
O.C. Dooley
South Carolina at Florida
Pick:South Carolina +22
One of the keys to this selection is actually the WEATHER as there is a very good chance of thunderstorms in the northern part of Florida today as a cold front passes through. The more rain that falls from sky will benefit South Carolina as they enter this contest with one of the nation's best DEFENSES. This is actually a very RARE handicapping situation where we have a South Carolina team ranked #3 nationally in total defense, GETTING more than 20 points from the oddsmakers. For those of you who have followed me through the years on the premium service, you know that I like to side on the gridiron with what is essentially as "defensive underdog" that has the ability to stay close due to a stellar stop-unit. Of course it is easy to see why 3rd-ranked Florida is such a prohibitive home favorite since they are coming off 4 different blowout victories. But all you need to know is that former Florida legend Steve Spurrier is revisiting "the swamp" this afternoon in an emotional affair which is why the CBS-TV cameras will be following his every move. My database research indicates that the "old ball coach" has successfully COVERED the spread 6 of the past 7 chances as a DOUBLE DIGIT underdog in conference play. More importantly Spurrier in conference ROAD affairs such as this has gone a phenominal "15-3" ATS as either an underdog or favorite in today's price range, as long as he is armed with a stout DEFENSE that is permitting less than 16 points per contest. I will admit that South Carolina is still rotating quarterbacks on offense, but the stop-unit returned TEN of 11 starters from a year ago and has been spectacular. As mentioned above, the more rain there is today, the less effective Florida's Tim Tebow will be through the air
Bobby Maxwell
Cal at OREGON STATE -3'
College football winner coming to you with Oregon State as the Beavers host Cal in a Pac-10 matchup from Corvallis, Ore.
Oregon State has been on a roll lately, winning four straight games and cracking the Top-25 for the first time this season. Today they host Cal and the Beavers are definitely the play in this one.
Oregon State beat UCLA 34-6 last week, cashing in as 7 1/2-point road favorites, but they had to rally for a huge second half after going into the locker room at halftime all tied at 3-3. The Beavers racked up 423 yards and held UCLA to 234, but it was th running game that did the damage for Oregon State, rushing for 2005 yards as the Beavers went to 6-1 ATS in their last seven.
The Beavers opened the 2008 season with a 36-28 road loss at Stanford, but
they've gone 5-0 since then (4-1 ATS) and they sit a half-game behind Southern Cal in the Pac 10 standings. But Oregon State actually controls its own destiny after upsetting Southern Cal 27-21 at home back on September 5.
Oregon State got a 31-28 road win last year as a 14-point underdog at Cal. And going back to 1999, the Beavers are 7-2 SU against Cal and Oegon State has covered 14 of their last 21 series clashes.
Cal has had trouble cashing tickets on the road, going 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road, 2-6 in its last eight November games and 3-7 following a straight-up win. On the opposite end, Oregon State is on ATS streaks of 13-3 overall, 38-18-1 at home, 17-8 in November, 4-0 in Pac-10 play, 10-1 on artificial turf and 42-17 after a spread-cover.
Go ahead and lay the chalk with the home team in this one. Oregon State will run the ball and control the clock. Play the Beavers.
3♦ OREGON STATE
Butler at DRAKE -5'
The of the more successful mid-major college hoops squads square off in the opener this season as Butler heads to Drake in this battle of Bulldogs.
Drake opened last season on an impressive 22-1 run, includin a 21-game winning streak and got as high as No. 14 in the rankings. They won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament championship to reach their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1971. But the show was short-lived when they lost in the opening round 101-99 in one of the most exciting games of the Big Dance.
Butler went 30-4 last year and got as high as No. 11 in the rankings. They got to the second round of the Big Dance before losing 76-71 against Tennessee as a 4 1/2-point underdog.
These two aren't unfamiliar with each other, meeting last season in a February Bracket-Buster game when Drake beat Butler 71-64 as a 5 1/2-point road 'dog. Drake is on ATS runs of 20-8-1 last season, 11-5 at home, 20-8 in non-conference play and 10-3 on Saturdays.
Drake went 14-1 at home last season and 7-4 ATS. Look for Drake to get a solid home win in the opener as they come out fired up in front of the home crowd, motivated for the victory. Play the Drake.
4♦ DRAKE
Karl Garrett
Georgia at AUBURN +10
The line on this SEC game continues to rise, and that is OK with the G-Man, as I don't at all believe this Georgia team is going to cover this number on the road.
This will be the Bulldogs 4th straight conference road game, and they sure have looked less than impressive the last 2 week's in their blowout loss to Florida, and their near-loss against an injury-ravaged Kentucky team.
UGA has failed their last 3 when laying points, and the fact they have hammered Auburn the last 2 season's, will have the Tigers that much more hungry to get a win to make themselves bowl-eligible.
It hasn't been one of Tommy Tuberville's better seasons on the Plains, but a look at past results shows the Tigers with just one SEC home loss by more than 7-points since the 2003 season.
Last time I checked, the spread in this one was hovering around double-digits.
G-Man going to grab the points with the desperate home underdog.
4♦ AUBURN
Chris Jordan
South Carolina at FLORIDA -22
The only battle of two Top 25 teams on the docket, as the 25th-ranked Gamecocks head to Gainesville for a clash with the fourth-ranked Gators in the Swamp.
And even though South Carolina comes into this one sporting a 6-1 mark as a double-digit conference pup, I can't help but think about the games Florida won over LSU, Georgia and Vanderbilt.
Two of those three – LSU and Georgia – were considered as BCS Title Game contenders at some point this season, and the Gators annihilated both. Vandy also made headlines early this season, but the Commodores never stood a chance. Florida beat all three by a combined final of 142-45. That’s an average final of 47.3 - 15 – an average margin of 32.3 points per win.
And right now, more than anything else, blowout wins are what matters most for national-title seeking Florida, which just clinched the SEC East.
I know South Carolina’s three losses were by seven points apiece, and is no doubt eager to get another crack at the Gators after last season’s stinging 51-31 setback in Columbia, but when you have a scoring offense that ranks 70th in the nation with just 24 points per game, it’s hard to imagine what that team will do against Urban Meyer’s troops.
Especially in Gainesville, as the Gators have the whole package with the 14th-best defense, the fourth-ranked scoring D, the seventh-best scoring offense and the 31st offense overall. In fact, since losing at home to Mississippi, this team is outscoring its foes by an average final of 48.6 - 11.4 – and that includes those aforementioned wins over Georgia, LSU and Vandy.
Some people would like to believe Steve Spurrier is bringing the better defense to the field, but I say Florida will have the better stop unit in the Swamp. Next on deck is a charity game with Citadel, so this is the last big test for the Gators. Lay the chalk.
3♦ FLORIDA
San Jose State at NEVADA -14'
There are a lot of intangible to look at in this Western Athletic Conference showdown, especially since the Spartans are clinging to second place in league play with a 4-2 mark, and the Wolfpack are half-game behind at 3-2.
The favorite in this series has covered seven of the last eight meetings, with the only dog cover coming last year.
Now many are saying the onus is once again Nevada – the 14-1/2-point favorite – and how its offense will match up against San Jose’s defense. There’s no denying that’s a crucial intangible, as the Spartans have a solid defense that ranks 21st in the nation and has been effective in recording 31 sacks and 15 interceptions.
The thing I like about Nevada is the strength of this team this season, which has been its rushing game. It equates to ball control and time management, which equates to less time for the Spartans to create.
And since the Spartans’ offense was dormant in last week’s 21-0 loss to Louisiana Tech, and has been null and void all season, ranking 110th overall and 101st in scoring with just 19.7 points per game, there’s no reason to believe they’ll be able to penetrate the Pack at Mackay Stadium.
Nevada has a tough rushing defense, so ball control is not on San Jose’s side, if the Spartans thought they’d do their own time management scheme to keep the ball out of the Wolfpack’s hands.
Bottom line is, as we get deeper into November, the play in the trenches carries more weight in determining outcomes of crucial conference rivalry games, as smaller bodies begin to grow weary. And let’s not forget, November is really December in Reno – weather wise, so the Wolfpack will undoubtedly be applying the pressure.
And since Nevada has won and covered five of the last six in the series and currently sports a 9-2 ATS mark as double-digit favorites, I am laying the number here.
3♦ NEVADA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Rutgers +7' at SOUTH FLORIDA
South Florida has had an extra week off to think about the 2 crushing losses they suffered prior to their bye week, as the Bulls came up lame at both Louisville, and Cincinnati their last 2 times out, and now after starting 5-0 are just 6-3 as they head down the stretch.
We can't recommend laying any points right now with South Florida, as their offense has been held to just 3 TD's in their last 2 games.
Rutgers comes into this one on an uptick, as Greg Schiano's team has won their last 3, and they have gone 4-1 against the spread their last 5 games. It looks like senior QB Mike Teel is finally feeling comfortable, and it certainly helps that the Knights' running game has been bolstered by the emergence of RB Kordell Young.
The Bulls are on a 2-7 spread run their last 9, and they have lost the last pair of series meetings against the Scarlet Knights.
Rutgers is on a roll, and will be able to stay close today against a South Florida team that is now questioning themselves.
Play on the Knights.
3♦ RUTGERS
Mikey Sports
Ohio State @ Illinois
Play: Ohio State (-)
R&R Totals
Texas A&M @ Baylor
Play: OVER
Pure Lock
INDIANA @ PENN STATE
PLAY: PENN STATE (-)
Tony Mathews
East Carolina vs. Southern Mississippi
Selection: Southern Mississippi -3
The Pirates are in fact a pedestrian team despite their 3 consecutive wins. Even though they managed to defeat the Memphis Tigers by 20 points the Tigers had some serious issues. First of all, in the first 10 minutes of the game they lost their two top QBs. Secondly, the Tigers where mentally apathetic in that game at the outset. Their most recent wins came against Central Florida which was easy competition that was won by only 3 points, and then against Marshall at home. The Pirates had a great start with 3-0 and a rank of 14th in the nation but have since done nothing to show they’re anything but average.
Southern Mississippi had a consecutive 4 game loss with 2 subsequent victories. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that after a 2-6 record Southern Mississippi would just give up, but that’s not at all what happened. Technically, the Golden Eagles are bowl eligible which could potentially give them their 15th consecutive season win. This week will be the last home game for Southern Mississippi and it is extremely important for the Golden Eagles; they want to keep the tradition going after winning 3 straight seasons in the last home game of the year.
The Golden Eagles have gone unnoticed because they are new in their first year and this provides great value for us. Southern Mississippi has the advantage of having offensive coordinator Larry Fedora on staff who was formally with Oklahoma State. Fedora has implemented a good spread attack which, despite the usual acclimation time, has appeared to have begun to take effect. The Golden Eagles will be determined to have it fine-tuned for this matchup as they face the Pirates who have the best scoring defense and total defense in the conference.
The Golden Eagle defense has allowed an average of 412 yards total per game but only allowed Central Florida a total of 208 yards; this included just 64 yards rushing. Central Florida’s QBs were able to complete only 13 passes with just 2 interceptions. The week before, Southern Miss allowed UAB Blazers only 223 yards. In scoring offense, the Pirates are ranked 77th in the nation and 79th in total offense which doesn’t do them justice; they have gotten a lot worse lately.
Take Southern Mississippi -3!
GREG SHAKER
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kansas State Wildcats
Play Kansas State +6
I am not going to spend much time on this play. The Cornhuskers have been playing much better football of late but they will face a very motivated bunch of Wildcats today as play hard for their Head Coach who they love dearly, and is on his way out. Many feel that he should not be on his way out and certainly the only people that matter are his players today. These teams are not that far apart in terms of talent and Oddsmakers have the obligation to make Nebraska a favorite in this matchup. Just as it as was an easy choice to play the Huskers verses Kansas last week, it is just as easy a decision to play the Cats today in Manhattan. College Football is all about who wants to play and KState does today. While Nebraska became Bowl eligible with their win last week, what is left for KState is the chance to redeem themselves. Last year the Wildcats were trounced by this team 76-39 at Lincoln and you can best believe that they have not forgotten that. The last 4 by this bunch has featured 3 tough road contests and a home date verses Oklahoma. They have come away from that with 4 losses but they do come out of it with healthy bodies and a healthy mindset. Motivation is the key here and our team has plenty of it. I will be playing some on the moneyline as well....
Nostradamus
Duke/Clemson Under 46
Tex A&M/Baylor Under 58.5
USC/Stanford Over 48.5
Rocketman
East Carolina @ Southern Miss
Play: 1* East Carolina +3
East Carolina is 12-4 ATS last 3 years as an underdog. East Carolina is 7-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. Pirates are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Golden Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Golden Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Golden Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. We'll play East Carolina for 1 unit today!
Drew Gordon
Middle Tennessee State at WESTERN KENTUCKY +2'
After over a month of futility, Western Kentucky finally gets a break today at home, matched up against a MTSU squad that's winless on the road and for good reason...
MTSU's road-weariness is tough to ignore, going 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS on the highway this season. They've gotten shredded left and right, and I don't see that changing much today. Blue Raiders are allowing 31 ppg on 377 total yards on the road this season, and its gotten even worse over their last 3 games.
Speaking strictly from a match up standpoint, the Blue Raiders do not match up well with a run-heavy Hilltoppers team. Over their last 3 games, MTSU is allowing a laughable 217 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry! That's music to my ears in this match up, as the Hilltoppers sport a bevy of talented RBs, plus a couple dual-threat signal callers. Note, over their last 3 games, Western Kentucky is averaging 225 rushing yards per game on a ridiculous 5.7 yards per carry!
On the flip side, Western Kentucky's defense gets lucky in this match up, as the Blue Raiders will not be able to take advantage of a weak Hilltoppers rush defense. MTSU averages only 85 rushing yards per contest, relying on the pass more than anything else. Craddock and this Raiders offense take a big step down when they travel, and I expect more of the same today.
Finally, expect Western Kentucky to go all out in this contest, as they have a nice 2-week layoff before their season finale at Florida International. In the end, this is a fundamental match up problem for the Blue Raiders, as they are unable to stop the run, and that's pretty much all the Hilltoppers are going to do this afternoon. Blue Raiders have been garbage on the road and they'll continue to be today in Bowling Green.
Take Western Kentucky plus the points over Middle Tennessee State in this college football match up.
2♦ WESTERN KENTUCKY
Tom Stryker
NOTRE DAME (-) over Navy
This one is all about heart for UND.
After last week’s embarrassing 17-0 loss at Boston College, the Eagle fans treated the Fighting Irish to a chant of “where’s your heart” as the Dame left the field. Getting demolished on national television was bad enough. However, listening to that embarrassing phrase as they left had to leave Notre Dame burning with desire. No man or team ever wants to have their heart questioned!
As you all know, Navy’s victory at Notre Dame Stadium last year was the Middies first in this series in 44 tries. That fact alone should give the Irish all the motivation they need!
Offensively, the Fighting Irish should have a monster day. In the last three meetings against the Midshipmen, Notre Dame has racked up 124 points and 1,351 total yards. That’s not the most impressive thing either. In those three battles against the Middies, the Irish NEVER had to punt. Dating back to the 2004 meeting, UND has ripped off 230 offensive plays without sending its punter on to the field!
When matched up against an unranked Navy bunch, Notre Dame has posted victories in 65 of the last 71 meetings. That’s nothing to sneeze at men. Equally impressive, non-rested road or neutral favorites that got shutout in their last game are a respectable 38-22 ATS for 63.3 percent. If our hungry piece of chalk failed to cover in their last loss, this college system improves to a solid 34-18 ATS for 65.3 percent. The Irish apply to the general situation and the tightener.
When taking on UND and entering off a straight up win, Navy has lost 10 straight by an average of 20.3 points per game. Irish head coach Charlie Weis is back calling the plays this week and you can bet your last dollar that the Blue and Gold will put points on the board here. Take Notre Dame!
Tom Freese
New Orleans Hornets at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Houston Rockets
Houston is 9-3 ATS with no rest and they are 8-3 ATS on Saturday. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 4-1 ATS at home vs. winning teams. New Orleans is in a 39-17 ATS Play Against System that says to go against road dogs in November who have a win percentage of 51% to 60%. The Hornets are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning home record. PLAY ON HOUSTON -
Boston College at Florida St
Prediction: Under
Boston College is in 51-22 UNDER System that says to Play UNDER on all teams when the Total is 42.5 to 49 points if they pass that ball for 130 to 170 yards a game. Florida St is in a 43-18 UNDER System that says to Play UNDER on all teams when the Total is 42.5 to 49 points if they average 16 or more points in the first half of their games if they are off a game where 60 or more points total were scored. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Charlie Scott
BYU vs. Air Force
Play:BYU -4
It is rare for me to play favorites. ( I think this is about the third favorite I have played all season in NCAAF) When you do play a favorite , you better be confident your team is going to win s/u, and I'm pretty confident BYU will win today ! Byu has too many faster, stronger, athletes for the slow footed, undersized Airmen. AF has played a soft schedule, with one quality opponent Utah who they lost 23-30. BYU Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall teams have done a good job defending the Air Forces option offense going back to his days as Defensive Coordinator at New Mexico. Today I'm a clean living Mormon Go BYU, PLAY BYU !
South Carolina vs. Florida
Play:South Carolina +21
By playing the SC Gamecocks we are getting 3 TD's and the team with the better defense. We also get a Hall of Fame Coach that season would be made if he beats Florida today. Ole Miss was able to beat Florida by creative play calling and passing the ball on offense. South Carolina Can throw on offense and at times the Florida defense struggles to stop the pass. Handicapping 101- Play on quality underdog, getting double digits + points, good defense, with Head Coach playing vs his old school. Expect South Carolina to keep it close GO COCKS !