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Bettorsworld

3* Texas Tech +7 over Oklahoma

They don't get any bigger than this. Monster game with National Title implications as the Red Raiders travel to Norman to take on the Sooners. To be clear, when handicapping games, in order to make a play "special" you really need the perfect storm of handicapping factors to come together. You need to have your statistical edges to go along with those motivational edges unique to College Football. Unfortunately, we don't have that here and actually have a couple of those edges going against us but we're still going to back Tech in this spot and here's why.

When I was watching Texas and Oklahoma duke it out a few weeks back, I said to myself while watching the game that there was no way I was looking at a National Champion on either side, Texas or Oklahoma. There was no defense to speak of in that game. Just a couple of offenses moving the ball up and down the field in a game that was ultimately decided by a couple of mistakes. In that game Texas did manage to hold Oklahoma to 48 yards on the ground but the two teams combined for over 600 yards through the air and while it was an exciting game it left you feeling that both teams were certainly beatable.

On the other hand, when I sat there and watched Texas Tech and Texas, I was left with a much different impression. Anyone watching that game had to say to themselves, WOW, when the first half came to a close. Wow because you saw a team that not only had a spectacular offense but because they showed some life on defense as well. They stifled the Long Horns in that first half. So much so that the Tech defense scored the first points of the game in the form of a safety! When the dust settled in the first half Tech had a 22-6 lead. On the day Tech had 31 first downs to the Longhorns 18. They were 8 for 16 on 3rd down conversions. 579 total yards to 374 for Texas. They had more on the ground and thru the air than Texas and gained almost 4 yards per carry while holding Texas to 3. They also held the ball for 37 minutes to only 23 for the Long Horns. Keep in mind this is the same Texas team that won the stat battle and the game over Oklahoma.

Texas Tech has been known for it's offense for years. They have been a threat to beat any team on any given day as a direct result of their high powered offense, not their defense. Throw a little defense into the mix and you can see why a National Title looms on the horizon. Texas Tech is 3rd in the Big 12 in total defense, 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring defense, and 20th in the Nation against the run. With an offense like theirs, you're really only asking your defense to go out there and slow the opponent down. Make a big play or two. A stop here and there because you're offense is going to score just about every time they touch the ball. This Tech defense has shown the ability to make big plays.

Unless we're looking at 42-7 Oklahoma, heading into the 4th quarter, there's no lead that's safe against Texas Tech. Oklahoma blew two 11 point leads to Texas as well as an 8 point lead at the start of the 3rd quarter. To simplify this, both teams have given up some similar numbers defensively. They have both given up their share of yards through the air while both have managed to hold 5 opponents to under 100 yards rushing. But offensively, we see Tech doing some more damage. They have rushed for more than 100 yards every time out this year. Oklahoma meanwhile was held to 25 yards rushing by TCU and 48 by Texas. Oklahoma's season high thru the air was 468 yards against Kansas. Texas Tech has topped 500 yards through the air 3 times this year and another 2 games with 474 yards or more and this was against Texas and Oklahoma State not the little sisters of the poor.

Oklahoma has revenge going for them as Texas Tech knocked off then #3 Oklahoma and spoiled their post season dreams a year ago. Now they get the chance to settle the score at home before a wild crowd and a National TV Audience. Revenge is always huge. Home field in this case, also huge. Stoops is 59-2 at home in his career at Oklahoma and has won 43 of the last 44 games at home. Of course that's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is, hey, he lost twice, and 52-3 still looks good.

So, we don't have the perfect storm. We don't have every conceivable motivational edge to go along with statistical edges. We don't have a "special" play. But we do have a solid play. We have two fantastic football teams with a couple of great QB's, either of which can win this game Saturday Night. We're backing a Texas Tech team that will never be out of this game. Barring a complete meltdown, if they aren't winning heading into the 4th quarter they should be in striking distance. Getting 7 points in a game of this magnitude, a game they can win straight up, and a game where even if they are trailing, the back door will always be open, we'll take it. As far as motivation, if playing for a potential National Title and staying undefeated, and getting to play in one of the biggest games in the history of your school isn't motivating enough, you don't belong on the field to begin with.

Also keep in mind, we talk alot about the talent levels between different schools and whether one program can compete regularly with another. Over the years, Oklahoma has owned the more decisive wins in this series. They have more than a couple of blow out wins, while the Tech wins were close games. But we're going back a number of years. There have been plenty of close ones in this series as well. But more importantly, when looking at recent history, we see that Tech has won 2 of the last 3 between these two teams straight up. While both of those games were at home, they lost 34-24 at Oklahoma in 2006 in a game in which Texas Tech led 24-17 at the half. So can this Tech team compete with the Sooners? You betcha. Especially when you consider this years Red Raiders kicked of the year with 10 returning starters on offense and 8 on defense. Not only can they compete, they know they can beat them........this is Texas Tech's year folks.

3* Texas Tech +7 over Oklahoma

Alex Smart

Boise St -6.0

Boise State enters into this WAC Conference tilt against Nevada as one of 5 sub division Bowl teams that remains undefeated on the season with a perfect 10-0 record. The Wolfpack their hosts own a 4-2 record in conference play and are 6-4 on the season, and would love nothing more than to up-end the Broncos bandwagon.

The Broncos in my opinion have gotten stronger and more cohesive on both sides of the rock with each successive outing this season, with the average margin of victory ringing in at 16.8 PPG, with no win coming by less than 13 points. They will be very ready for a football program that they have defeated 8 straight times, while covering the number 7 times. The most recent confrontation which occurred in this series was a see- saw battle, that resulted in a 69-67 OT victory for Boise State. That victory was the Broncos 3rd straight under this venue.

The bottom line here is that the Broncos offense can go toe to toe with any offense in this nation, including Nevada's vaunted attack. The ultimate difference maker in this matchup , however, comes on defensive side the ball, where Boise is among the nation elite stop units , ranking first in their conference and second in the country allowing just 10.3 PPG.

Final notes & Key Trends: Boise State is 27-8 L/35 November games with the average margin of the victory clicking in at 26.2 PPG.

Projected score: Boise State 41 Nevada 30

LT Profits

Arkansas -1.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Mississippi State Bulldogs may be the two worst teams in the SEC, but at least Arkansas can score and that should make all the difference here.

Mississippi State is one of the most offensively challenged teams in the country, as the Bulldogs are averaging 15.2 points and only 284.1 total yards of offense par game this year. Even those modest numbers are padded by a couple of outbursts vs. weak non-conference opponents (SE Louisiana, Middle Tennessee State), as the Bulldogs are average just 11.0 points in SEC play with their only conference win being by a 17-14 score vs. Vanderbilt.

Now Arkansas may be 4-6, but they are on a 4-1 run against the spread and they have scored at least 20 points in five straight games. Given the struggles of the MSU offense, 20 points may be enough to win this contest.

New coach Houston Nutt has transformed the Razorbacks into a passing offense, as they are averaging 250.2 passing yards per game. Sure, Casey Dick has been inconsistent while throwing 14 interceptions vs. 11 touchdown passes, but he does have nearly 2400 passing yards, and the way to beat this MSU defense is with big plays, as they are allowing only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.

Look for Dick and the Arkansas offense to produce enough points to get out of here with a road win.

Pick: Arkansas -1.5

Dave Malinsky

Indiana @ Purdue Nov
PICK: 4* Purdue -11.5

Just another late-season game between two losing teams going through the motions? This is anything but that on one side of the equation, and we believe that Joe Tiller not only gets a chance to carry away the Old Oaken Bucket one last time, but does it in style. So in the kind of game in which the oddsmakers often struggle to incorporate the emotional factors properly, we have a most fair line to play a Purdue blowout.

The Boilermaker run under Tiller has been a special one, with 10 bowl appearances. And he has been more than a football coach at the University, also being awarded the “Order of the Griffin”, a special Purdue honor that is not tied to athletics. That means not only a concerted effort by the players to send him out with a final win, but also more than the usual fan support for a losing team playing their last game. And with 17 seniors slated to start for the last time on this field the emotion runs particularly deep, especially for QB Curtis Painter, who is finally healthy again, and can erase some of the memories from a disappointing season by exploiting a papier-mache Indiana defense.

Can Indiana make the same claims about wanted to erase bitter memories, and for the seniors to go out in style? No, it is an entirely different situation for the Hoosiers. Depth has been an annual problem for this program as the Big 10 battles take their toll, and note that they are an awful 4-13 ATS as underdogs in the last three games of the season since 2002. But this autumn it has been even worse. Because of injuries a total of 16 different starters have missed at least one game, and the area hardest hit has been the secondary, where starting safeties Nick Polk and Austin Thomas, and starting CB Chris Phillips, have all been lost for the season. Because of this there is simply nothing left in the tank on that side of the ball, having allowed averages of 42 points and 518.3 points per game in three November outings, and against Wisconsin and Penn State the past two weeks they were out-scored 58-0 in the second half, a tell-tale sign that there is no fight left. And note that as bad as those two games were on the scoreboard, Indiana was actually +6 in turnovers over those eight quarters!

It is more than just emotion here for Purdue – this is a team that could have been much better than the results if not for so many injuries. But not only is Painter as close to full health as he has been in quite some time, Eric Hedstrom and Sean Sester will also be returning in the OL, after each missed the last two games. The pieces were back in place for a blowout anyway, but the special nature of Saturday’s setting pushes the rest of it over the top.

Tony George

NC State vs. North Carolina
Play: NC State +10.5

Nothing comes easy in the ACC, except if you are Georgia Tech these days! North Carolina has done a great job with Butch Davis as head man, and have surporised many with their play this season. The Tar heels however have some holes on both sides of the ball. IN THE ACC THERE IS PARITY. The difference between the best and the worst is really not more than a few plays in a game in any instance.

NC State is a cover machine going 7-1 ATS their last 8 games and they are riding a freshman sensation QB in Wilson who has tossed out 12 TD passes in his last 6 games while throwing no picks in the process. If you look at thr stats in the last 3 games these two have played this year, the stats are alomost dead even, and this is a rivalry game with pride on the line for the Wolfpack. Their ability to run it and having a QB with confidence with nothing to lose, as this is their bowl game this season, leads me to look for a cover here in a tight game. Losing all world WR Brandon Tate for NC took away a huge threat for them and big play capabilities. This one is a nail biter for Tar heel fans.

Take the points and NC State

Joe Gaffney

Pittsburgh U vs. Cincinnati U
Play: Pittsburgh U +6

The schedule sets up nicely for the rush-heavy Wannstedts, who had a bye last week and can rest up and devote some extra time to Cincinnati’s so-so spread attack, which has had its ups and downs this season and which may revert back to Dustin Grutza at quarterback, who started the season and had been followed by three other quarterbacks before he came full circle and got back behind center after halftime of last week’s second-half comeback win. Sensational defense, good coaching, talented offensive skill players and a nice offensive scheme have kept the Bearcats a float, but don't be surprises if the PANTHERS pull the upset. Take the pts.

Bettorsworld

3* BYU +7 over Utah

Note that 7's are now available everywhere. You want to make sure you get the 7. On to the game. We can sum up why were are playing BYU right here in the first paragraph. At which point, we'll have to fill in some more space below to complete the write up. Rivalries like this one are what college football is all about. Games like this have a history of being close regardless of what kind of year either team is having. In this instance, you have two teams both having spectacular years with even more on the line in this game than usual.

10 of the last 11 in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less. Even more intriguing is that this BYU team has only lost two games out of their last 41 by more than a touchdown. Once last year to UCLA, a 10 point loss, and this years loss to TCU earlier in the year. Put another way, taking BYU +7 over their last 41 games, you'd be 37-2-2 against the spread. BOTH of the pushes were overtime losses. That's quite a testament to BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall. So really folks, 2 losses by more than a touchdown in 41 games, why not one more time in what is one of the biggest, if not the biggest game of the previous 41. Also note that the last two games in this series came down to the final minute.

The numbers support the play as well. Against common opponents Utah is 8-0 while BYU is 7-1. Yards per point numbers on the year are fairly even. Yards per point numbers against common opponents favor Utah slightly. There's no question the talent is there on both teams to win this game straight up. Under those circumstances, it's no secret where we want to be. Which is getting a touchdown.

Utah backers are going to point to the TCU game. Utah beat TCU 13-10 while BYU was hammered 32-7. But rather than make a judgment on this one based on one game, we choose to look at an entire body of work, as well as the history of the series and the BYU program in general over the last few years. We'd also point to a Utah game such as New Mexico. A game Utah won by just a field goal. Folks, New Mexico is not a very good football team. Or we can point to the Air Force game. BYU won convincingly over Air Force last week while Utah needed a touchdown with 58 seconds remaining to win their game with the Falcons.

We point out the above games just to illustrate that this is anyone's game. Utah has the home field edge as well as double revenge working for them, which is significant but also remember that Utah had previously won 4 in a row before BYU took the last two. It's been a streaky series. We'll take our chances with BYU in this spot. 3* BYU +7

2* Minnesota + 6 over Iowa

It's not a question of whether or not Minnesota can play with Iowa. That much we can derive from each teams performances against common opponents. We can also take a look back to last year when Minnesota only won one game all year long yet managed to go into Iowa and only lose by 5 points. Many of the same players remain from both teams. The question here is whether Minnesota can get up for this game emotionally after last weeks loss to Wisconsin. No easy task. It's that game last week that keeps this from being a stronger play.

But it can also be looked at as a last chance game. Last chance for the Gophers, having an unexpected good year, to win a big game. A rivalry game. There's 3 games that mean the most to the Gophers each year. Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. They have already lost to Michigan and Wisky. What a shame it would be to lose all 3 in what has been the biggest turnaround in college football this year. 1-11 to 7-4.

Again we can look at common opponents to get an idea of a win is possible. Iowa lost to Northwestern at home by 5 early in the year. Minnesota lost to Northwestern with 12 seconds left on an interception. Iowa beat Wisconsin 38-16 but remember, last week Minnesota had Wisconsin down 2 touchdowns before letting them back in the game. Iowa lost to Illinois, Minnesota beat Illinois. They both beat Purdue by similar scores and both beat Indiana, although Iowa did so more impressively.

All this again just to illustrate that Minnesota can play on the same level as Iowa. We can dig into this a little further by looking at the yards per point numbers against common opponents. When we do this we see both teams with a very nice 19 on defense. On the offensive side, Iowa weighs in with a 12.7 while Minny has a 15 which tells us that Iowa has made better use of the yards they have gained offensively and had an easier time converting those yards into points. When using these numbers to make a line on the game we'd have Iowa better by a field goal before adding home field advantage for the Gophers. So again, at +6 there's some wiggle room here.

It's a rivalry game, it's the last game in the Metrodome, it's a chance for the Gophers to finally win a big one this year and to play a full 60 minutes and finish a game. It's a chance to cement a nice bowl destination as well. We're a little concerned with the Gophers mental state after last week, but then again, if you can't get up for a big game like this, don't play college football.

Lastly, no Minnesota write up would be complete without mentioning the Gophers turnover margin this year. At times this year, they were #1 in the nation in this all important category. Right now they sit at #4. There's a couple of teams by the name of Oklahoma and Florida ahead of them, maybe you have heard of them. Everyone else in all of college football is below them in this category. This is an incredibly important in football at any level. Look at turnover margins and see a direct correlation between that and the win loss column in most cases. When a team performs well in this category, the ball doesn't simply fall into their hands. It isn't luck. Teams aren't "getting all the breaks" as some suggest. Turnovers are created. In a big game, a game that has the potential to be very close, you can be fairly certain that the outcome will be decided by a pick or an interception. A mistake somewhere along the line. You can't predict the future but you can try. We'd rather be backing the team that has proved all year long that it can end up with the ball when it pops loose more times than not. 2* Minny +6

SportsInsights

Boise State vs Nevada

Boise State can clinch the WAC title with a win this week, and they will also remain in contention for their second BCS bowl game in three seasons. The Broncos feature the nation's second-best scoring defense (10.3 points per game) and rank 12th in total defense (285.5 yards per game.) Boise State features a balanced attack on offense, led by freshman quarterback Kellen Moore (20 touchdowns, 6 interceptions) and senior tailback Ian Johnson (NCAA record 54 career rushing touchdowns.) Last week the Broncos gained 315 yards on the ground against Idaho, despite Johnson only gaining 14 yards.

Nevada is trying to strengthen its bowl position with its third consecutive win. The Wolf Pack feature the nation's top rushing offense and the No. 2 rushing defense. They average 325 yards per game on the ground; they are the only team in the nation to average over 300. The ground attack already features two 1,000 yard rushers in tailback Vai Taua (1,284 yards) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (1,017 yards), who are the top two rushers in the conference. The Wolf Pack defense allows and average of 63.9 yards on the ground. They also feature an intimidating pass rush, with defensive ends Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped (15.5 sacks combined.)

This could be another high-scoring affair after Boise State's four overtime 69-67 victory last year. That game was the highest scoring affair in Football Subdivision Series history since official stats started being kept in 1937. Boise State opened as 6-point road favorites at Pinnacle and most other books tracked by Sports Insights. At Pinnacle the line remained Boise State -6, with only the money behind the spread changing, despite the Broncos receiving over 80% of spread bets and over 90% of parlay bets. At BetOnline, the line actually moved to Boise State -5.5 with the heavy public backing, and that triggered a Smart Money play on Nevada at BetOnline (26-15, +8.32). We like homedogs when they're getting getting a touchdown, and there are still some books like The Pig and SIA offering the Wolf Pack +7.

Nevada +7

Oregon State vs Arizona

Oregon State comes into this match up controlling its own destiny. If the Beavers can win their final two games, they are the Pac-10 Champions and will be playing in their first Rose Bowl since 1965. If they lose, there are a variety of bowl scenarios for Oregon State. The Beavers have won five straight behind a ground attack led by freshman running back Jacquizz Rodgers, who leads the Pac-10 with 1233 yards. Oregon State's defense has turned up the heat on opposing quarterbacks recently with 19 sacks during the five-game winning streak.

Arizona is bowl eligible for the first time in 10 years, but they suffered an embarrassing 55-45 loss last week to Oregon, while allowing 45 points and 411 yards to the Ducks in the first half. The Wildcats almost overcame a 31-point deficit, but they couldn't make the final jump late. The defense had been ranked in the top-25 nationally recently, but last week's loss didn't help those rankings. Arizona's offense can put up some points, as they average 39.7 points per game. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is a monster at 6'6" and 260 pounds, and he has eight touchdowns on the season.

Arizona opened as 3-point home favorites despite last week's showing against Oregon. So it's no surprise that the Beavers are drawing huge backing from the public. Oregon State is garnering 68% of spread bets and 84% of parlay bets from the public. That backing has pushed the line to Arizona -2.5. The Wildcats are 4-1 at home this season, including 5-0 against the spread in Arizona Stadium. Oregon State may be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Oregon and a Rose Bowl berth. We'll take the home Wildcats to bounce back and end the Beavers win streak.

Arizona -2.5

Arkansas vs Mississippi State

Arkansas comes in needing wins in its final two games to qualify for a bowl in Bobby Petrino's first season as head coach. Even two wins won't guarantee the Razorbacks a bowl berth. Arkansas quarterback Casey Dick suffered a head injury two weeks ago against South Carolina, and he was replaced by his brother Nathan Dick. Both quarterbacks could see action against the Bulldogs. The Razorbacks are giving up 166.2 rushing yards per game on the season.

Mississippi State couldn't beat Alabama for the third consecutive season, and the loss ended any possibility for a bowl game. Head Coach Sylvester Croom is on the hot seat. The Bulldogs are only averaging 104.5 yards rushing per game. The passing game hasn't fared much better with an 178.5 average. Their passing defense has been solid in giving up only 154.5 yards per game. The defense held No. 1 Alabama to their season averages in terms of yards last week, as 16 of the Crimson Tide's 32 points can be blamed on MSU's kicking game.

The game opened as a pick at Pinnacle, and it moved to Mississippi State -1.5 a few hours later. Since then the line has steadily moved in the other direction, and Arkansas is now a 1.5-point favorite. The Razorbacks are receiving 70% of the public's spread bets and 52% of parlay bets. We'll take another home underdog in Mississippi State.

Mississippi State +2

Ted Sevransky

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
PICK: Tennessee +3

Things went from bad to worse for Tennessee immediately following Philip Fulmer’s resignation, effective at the end of the season. The Vols had been struggling mightily prior to Fulmer’s announcement – heck, if they weren’t doing so poorly, he wouldn’t have quit. Then came the 13-7 home loss to Wyoming, as 25 point chalk, as embarrassing a performance as we’ve seen out of Tennessee since their wipeout loss to Maryland back in the 2002 Peach Bowl.

The Wyoming game came at the end of a brutal stretch for the Vols. They hadn’t had a bye since Week 2; had just suffered embarrassing beat-down losses at the hands of Alabama and South Carolina; and saw their head coach, under tremendous fire, announce his resignation, effective at the end of the season. No wonder they came out flat!

Now the Vols are rested and ready to take on their in-state foe, in the midst of a far better season than Tennessee is having. The Vols have absolutely dominated this series, winning 24 of the last 25 meetings in straight up fashion; 67-9-2 since 1928. Tennessee can avoid the worst season in the history of the program with a win here, and they are in an ideal position to do it. Fulmer, talking about the impact of the bye week: “We had a chance to do some fundamental work while also physically and mentally getting some rest after nine straight football games.”

Tennessee certainly got healthy over the bye. Key defensive cogs Dan Williams, Walter Fisher and Ellix Wilson are all expected to be at or near 100% this week. That’s bad news for the sluggish Vanderbilt offense, a unit held to 14 points or less for five straight weeks before last week’s dominant showing at Kentucky. While Jonathan Crompton is expected to start at quarterback for the Vols, redshirt frosh BJ Coleman had a phenomenal performance in the JV game last weekend, and should see some snaps here, particularly if Crompton struggles again.

Vandy just notched their sixth win last week, clinching bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982. This sets up as a major flat spot for the Commodores, even against an in-state rival that has dominated them for decades. There’s no question that Tennessee has the more talented personnel on both sides of the football. This week, I expect to see the level of effort that corresponds with that talent base. (#137) 2* Take Tennessee.

Totals 4U

Brigham Young @ Utah

Brigham Young (10-1, 6-1 Mountain West) The Cougars ground out a tough come from behind 38-24 win at Air Force last Saturday, giving up 323 yards on the ground to the Falcons while tallying 354 yards of their own through the air to earn their 3rd-consecutice double-digit win season and now have a chance to earn Co-Conference Championship Honors over their state rivals at Rice Eccles Stadium. Anyone who says that violence is against the Mormon code just hasn’t seen this defense play ball. A NCAA-best 17 times BYU this season has turned over their opponents via the fumble with 3-4 linebackers 6’3” 233 senior SLB David Nixon (67 T, 9 ½ TFL, S, 3 INT, FR), 6’1” 232 junior ILB Matt Bauman (84 T, 8 ½ TFL, 2 S, FR), 6’2” 232 junior ILB Shawn Doman (51 T, TFL, 2 FR), and 6’3” 220 junior WLB Coleby Clawson (40 T, 9 ½ TFL, 4 S, FR) plus key rotation backups Daniel Sorenson (11 T, 3 TFL, S, INT) and Matt Ah You (35 T) extremely quick to the ball and ready to lay the licks while teammates strip. 61 team tackles for loss including 20 sacks have help opposing squads to just 18.2 points per game on 337.5 yards (130.2 rush at 3.6 per carry, 207.3 pass at 6.5 per attempt) – a feat against the wide-open Mountain West Conference – with a superior 5 man rotation up front setting the tone. 6’4” 260 junior LDE Brett Denney (25 T, 7 TFL, S, 3 FR), 6’3” 300 junior NT Russell Tialavea (16 T, 2 ½ TFL, BLK), and 6’3” 274 junior RDE Jan Jorgenson (42 T, 7 ½ TFL, 5 S, FR, BLK) – who owns conference record with 21 ½ career sacks – will get the starts this week against the Utes but you will also see all kinds of sharp play from NT Ian Dulan (18 T, 4 TFL, 3 S, FR) and freshman phenom 6’6” 237 DE Matt Putnam (21 T, 3 TFL, 2 S, INT) whom the pro scouts will be drooling over once he grows into his body. Keep your depth chart at the ready; Defensive Coordinator Jamie Hill likes to use all the toys in his toy box! And speaking of toys, check out 6’0” 210 sophomore CB Brandon Bradley (25 T, FR with 34-yards TD return) who was snubbed by his hometown Seminoles, brought his dynamite size out west, and looked pretty damn good last Saturday in his first career start. SS David Tafuna (39 T, INT), NB/S Andrew Rich (20 T, INT, FR), and CB Brandon Hayward (29 T) join him in the defensive backfield plus 5’11” 187 senior FS Kellen Fowler (58 T, FR) who pound for pound must be one of the surest tacklers in college football. Say a little pre-game prayer, bust you in the chops for 60 minutes, then say a little post-game prayer…just another Saturday in Utah.

So just what hasn’t their been said about an offense that boasts a Mackey Award finalist, a Biletnikoff Award finalist, and a Davey O’Brien Award semi-finalist (finalists will be named on Monday)? Well, first of all you have got to notice the beef along this offensive line. LT Matt Reynolds, LG Ray Feinga, C Dallas Reynolds (will make his 50th straight start on Saturday), RG Travis Bright, and RT David Oswald measure in at an average of 6’6” and 326 pounds per man - which may be decisive against the small Utah front - and have allowed just 14 sacks in some 380+ drop-backs while maintaining a 4.0 yards per carry mark on the ground (129.1 yards per game rushing). Which brings us to second, the beef in the backfield. 6’0” 239 sophomore RB Harvey Unga (189 for 857 yards and 6 TD rushing) has great hands for a big man (34 for 280 and 4 TD receiving) and is actually the “little guy” in the backfield compared to 6’1” 253 RB Fui Vakapuna (42 for 193 and 2 TD) who will simply crack skulls in pass protection. Thirdly…oh, nevermind, let’s just get to these stars! 6’1” 201 junior QB Max Hall (251 of 353 for 3070 yards, 32 TD, 7 INT) is the newest member of a long list of great Cougar quarterbacks that includes Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks Coach Brandon Doman who’s 33 touchdown passes were good enough to earn him runner-up honors for the 2001 Heisman Trophy. 6’5” 250 junior TE Dennis Pitta (67 for 879 and 6 TD) is the only 2-time John Mackey Weekly Award winner in college football this season and 6’2” 206 junior WR Austin Collie leads the NCAA with 1185 receiving yards this year on the 5th-best 78 catches plus has banked the bacon 13 times through 11 games. This is some major firepower to account for plus 6’1” 202 senior WR Michael Reed (33 for 391 and 2 TD) and 6’5” 243 junior TE (16 for 142 and 5 TD) are more than capable of making teams pay that lock down on Pitta and Collie. By the numbers, Brigham Young’s offense averages 36.2 points on 443.9 yards per game while converting a whopping 58% of their 3rd down conversions. And be careful in the kicking game; Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s crew has already blocked 5 kicks in 2008.

Utah (11-0, 7-0 Mountain West) Coach Kyle Wittingham’s (35-14 in 4th season) drilled San Diego State last week 63-14 on the strength of 5 first-half TD passes by 6’1” 200 senior QB Brian Johnson (211 of 317 for 2333 yards, 20 TD, 9 INT) and a pair of second-half interceptions returned for scores by backup senior safety Deshawn Richards. Johnson has a decent arm and good wheels but we give a lot of credit to his receiving corps. 6’3” 197 senior Bradon Godfrey (47 for 466 yards and 3 TD) and 6’4” 215 senior Freddie Brown (57 for 678 and 7 TD) bring NFL size and disciplined route running while fellow starter in the Utes’ base 3-receiver set 5’10” 198 senior Brian Casteel (36 for 487 and TD) brings major quickness and is tough as nails. Backups David Reed (19 for 309 and 4 TD) and Jereme Brooks (21 for 237 and TD) have produced big plays out of the 4 and 5 man alignments that most teams just don’t have the quality athletes to match up with effectively and keep an eye our for 6’4” 250 senior TE Colt Sampson (9 for 73 and 4 TD) in the Red Zone where Utah has banked 32 touchdowns in 45 trips. From the single-back set, Coach Anderson will run some direct snap plays to the backs with powerful 5’11” 230 junior RB Matt Asiata (122 for 633 yards and 10 TD) the most likely carrier of the ball in that situation although 6’0” 220 senior RB Darrell Mack (110 for 493 and 3 TD) gets equal touches is most games with 5’10” 200 sophomore RB Eddie Wide (30 for 183) breaking some long runs once the opponents have been worn down by the horses. By the numbers the line of LT Beadles, LG Schlauderhoff, C Taylor, RG Conley, and RT Hensel (average 6’4 ½” and 306 pounds and made all 55 possible starts) fuel an offensive attack that pounds out 36.5 points on 403.9 yards (173.5 rush, 230.5 pass) per game.

Coach Whittingham is a big believer in keeping his players rested during the season, typically giving them Monday’s off, and this approach has certainly paid off on defense (16.6 points per game) where his chosen starting 11 have basically made every possible start this season – allowing for subtle strategy and alignment changes. Defensive tackles 6’4” 260 senior Greg Newman (44 T, 8 ½ TFL, 1 ½ S, INT, FR) and 6’3” 245 freshman Derrick Shelby (27 T, 3 ½ TFL, S, FR) are massively undersized for the position but make a ton of tackles with their quickness while ends 6’3” 263 junior Koa Misi (57 T, 8 ½ TFL, 3 S, FR) and 6’5” 265 sophomore Paul Krueger (50 T, 15 ½ TFL, 7 ½ S) bring as much pain to the pocket as humanly possible considering the really must maintain lane assignments and edge control more than guys book-ending a couple of wide bodies. Without a doubt, Krueger won’t be spending his Sunday’s playing with the kids or watching football in the near future. Keeping in line with the philosophy of keeping players fresh, Defensive Coordinator rotates quite a bit with his unit of linebackers but the front line of 6’2” 224 junior Stevenson Sylvester (61 T, 5 TFL), 6’2” 230 junior Mike Wright (65 T, S, FR), and 6’0” 235 sophomore Nai Fotu (35 T, 5 ½ TFL, 2 S, FR) are dynamite in run support, allowing opponents to average only 94.9 yards per game on the ground at 3.0 yards per carry. Utah’s pass defense has been equally stingy, surrendering 189.8 yards per game with opponents converting only 30% of their 3rd-down attempts with size a huge asset. Junior starters 6’3” 214 CB Sean Smith (36 T, TFL, 4 INT) and 6’2” 195 FS Robert Johnson (33 T, INT, FR) bring the beef to tangle with anyone while fellow starters 5’9” 182 senior CB Brice McCain (28 T, 2 TFL, S, INT) and 5’11” 197 junior SS Joe Dale (56 T, 6 ½ TFL, S, INT) have plenty of support from key nickel and dime backs R.J. Stanford (32 T, 2 S) and Terrell Cole (30 T, 2 ½ TFL). At the college level, often the kicking game is judged by how little it hurts a team but that is certainly not the case for the Utes. Senior P/K Louis Sakoda (41.5 yards per punt, 19 of 21 field goals with long of 53) was a 1st-Team All American at punter in 2007 and is a candidate for both the Lou Groza and Ray Guy Awards in 2008.

SELECTION: The Utes were the original BCS-Busters, finishing 12-0 in 2004 and hammering Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl but the Cougars just match up too well against them to lay a full touchdown here. Take BYU +7 and let Rivalry Weekend begin!

Mike Wynn

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma

If you like shootouts you’re in luck this Saturday night. Texas Tech and Oklahoma are the number 1 & 3 scoring teams in the country and neither team ahs been held under 35 points this season. Texas Tech 10-0 for the first time in school history controls their own destiny for a national title shot and a win here Saturday would give them their third straight win over a top10 opponent. Oklahoma at 9-1 would be right back in the BCS Championship hunt with a win over the number 2 team in the country. Obviously this game is the marquee game on the board Saturday and I don’t think this game will disappoint. So let’s jump into some of the incredible numbers for both these schools and we’ll start with visitors.

Can’t say enough about the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the season they’re having. Texas Tech 10-0 for the first time ever and you’ve got to love that style of football they play and the way they execute it. Mike Leach runs that spread offense with a quick passing attack and nobody has run it better for him then QB Graham Harrell. Harrell has been outstanding leading the nation with 4,077 yards passing, and his 36 touchdowns to 5 interceptions ratio is as good as anybody in the country. Harrell has been playing QB at Texas Tech since his freshmen season and he has a complete handle of Mike Leach’s system. It certainly doesn’t hurt to have one of the best receivers in the country to throw to either. Pre scouts are drooling over Michael Crabtree. The 6-3 215 lbs. sophomore wide out already has 212 catches at Texas Tech including 40 of those for touchdowns. Crabtree is “the man” but he’s far from in the only threat on the offensive side of the ball. Baron Batch and Shannon Woods have given the Red Raiders a good solid running attack this season, and the defense for Texas Tech is better than it’s been in recent years. Texas Tech should hold their own here offensively, but on the defensive side they’ll have to find a way to slow down the Oklahoma running attack if they want to win this one Saturday night.

Oklahoma Sooners have a great opportunity to jump back into the title chase with a win here tonight. Oklahoma with a win here would probably leap frog Texas and Texas Tech and couple that with a Florida win over Alabama in the SEC Championship they should end up number 2. Oklahoma offense has simple been outstanding this season for Bob Stoops. Sophomore QB Sam Bradford is at the controls for the Sooners and he’s been as good as you can be. Bradford has 38 touchdowns this season against 6 interceptions and he has this Oklahoma offense peaking right now. Oklahoma is averaging 51.5 points per game this season and they’ve been even hotter recently scoring 66, 62, and 58 points over their last 3 games. Sonners may not have a Crabtree but they have plenty of receiver talent and the running backs Murray & Brown both average 5.5+ yards per carry. Defensively the Sooners not as strong as some of the past units, but they still only allowed an average of 19.4 points per game at home this season. Sooners also play with revenge in this game Saturday night as it was Texas Tech that knocked them out of the Championship race with a 34-27 set back in Lubbock last year. QB Bradford was knocked out on the first play from scrimmage and RB Murray went down early as well. All eyes on Norman here Saturday night and the winner here well deserves at shot at the BCS Championship come January.

Looking at trends and angles for this game it’s tough to find a reason to go against either of these ball clubs. Texas Tech is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS on the road this season, while Oklahoma is 5-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS in Norman. Red Raiders are 0-8 straight up on the road versus top 10 opponents under head coach Mike Leach, but they did the cash in 5 of those 8. Sooners have had a tremendous home field advantage under Bob Stoops with a 59-2 straight up record, and they’re a solid 9-2 ATS in games with a total of 63 or greater under his tenure. Texas Tech though is a dynamite 77-50 ATS against conference opponents since 1992 so both these teams have been profitable for their backer. With no clear edge on the side I’m going to look at the total and play this one over tonight. The total is high at 76 but I don’t think they can make it high enough. These two teams are combined 14-3 over this season and both teams are in over situations here. Make sure you get snacks and drinks set before kick off Saturday night, because if you blink or step out of the room you might miss a couple scores in this one.

Nevada Sharpshooter

Pittsburgh Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats

In a battle for first place in the Big East, the 7-2 Pitt Panthers travel to Cincinnati to take on the 8-2 Bearcats. Pittsburgh will rely on its strong ground game, led by RB LeSean McCoy who has over 1000 yards rushing while averaging 5 yards per carry.When the Panthers need to throw it QB Bill Stull and WRs Derek Kinder and Jonathon Baldwin. Kinder works underneath while Baldwin is the deep threat.On offense the Bearcats are led by QB Tony Pike who has 12 TDs passing and the running back combination of Jacob Ramsey and John Goebel who have 568 and 436 yards rushing respectively.If there is one area where Cincinnati has a decided edge in this game it is defense.The Bearcat defense has held it’s opponents to 20 points or less 7 times, while Pitt has accomplished it only 3 times.Pitt leads the series 7 -0.While the Bearcats may have an edge on defense I believe overall the Panthers are the better team.The Panthers have also shown the ability to win on the road with victories at Notre Dame and South Florida.Take Pittsburgh +5 over Cincinnati.

Dr. Vegas

Michigan vs Ohio State

What is historically a huge Big 10 matchup this year is only a trivial affair. In what can easily be called the worst season in Michigan history, the Wolverines are merely hoping to save face with any rays of light they can find. At 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS, the Wolverines have consistently underperformed all season long.

Michigan is coming into this game following a 21-14 home loss to Northwestern after a solid win over Minnesota two weeks ago. They’ve been outscored by about 100 points this season and have one of the lowest power ratings in the Big 10.

Ohio State is 9-2 SU and they’re ranked tenth in the nation. Despite their 4-6 ATS mark, they have covered 4 of the last 6, which means Vegas over-adjusted after their first four board games. They have proven that they can play with the other big boys in the conference, losing by a touchdown to Penn State, but beating Michigan State 45-7.

It’s the season finale for these teams. Ohio State has their sights set on a Big 10 title, while Michigan is just playing out their schedule. They’re a 20.5-point dog and questions of QB Steven Threet’s health for the game could stretch that line a bit.

It might still be a bitter rivalry, but Michigan’s lack of ability to produce will make them nothing more than the red carpet on which Ohio State will tred on their way to Big 10 greatness.

Take Ohio State minus the points over Michigan

Razor Sharp Sports

Michigan St vs. Penn St

What a great time of year if you love college football! Last week, the schedule lacked the “Big Game or Games”. This week they make up for it with a couple of key conference match-ups. The Big East lead is up for grabs with Pittsburgh going to Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats! The ACC has a couple of match-up that could decide each divisional winner as Miami-FL takes on Georgia Tech on Thursday for the lead in the ACC - Coastal Division, while Maryland hosts Florida St for the lead in the ACC Atlantic Division. Wednesday night, it is a battle in the MAC -West Division as Ball St takes on Central Michigan. Both teams are undefeated in conference play. The Mountain West title will be on the line when BYU takes on Utah. The Sun Belt crown is on the line when UL-Lafayette takes on Troy. Then their is a little game in the Big-12, where #2 Texas Tech goes to #5 Oklahoma. The winner there would have the upper hand to play in the Big-12 Championship and possibly the BCS Championship game. Finally the game we are going to take a closer look at this week here as the Big-10 crown, a Rose Bowl bid and even possibly a BCS Championship game invite could all be on the line at Michigan St takes on Penn St.

The top spot in the Big-10 is on the line at Happy Valley for not only the two teams that are playing this week, but also for a third team in the Ohio St Buckeyes. The senario is as followed. If Michigan beats Ohio St this week, then the winner of the Michigan St/Penn St game would be the Big-10 champ. If Ohio St beats Michigan as they should as a 21 point favorite, then if Michigan St would beat Penn St, Ohio St would be the Big-10 representative in the Rose Bowl since the Buckeyes beat the Spartans. If Penn St would win, they would win the title because of the head-ups victory over Ohio St. So lets take a closer look at both teams.

First of all. lets take a look at the surprise Spartans team. Last season, Michigan St finished the year 3-5 in the Big-10 and just 7-6 overall. This season they sit at 6-1 in Big-10 play and 9-2 overall. The one key has to be the man who handles the ball most often on the offense. That would be the nation’s #2 rusher Javon Ringer. Ringer has run for 1548 yards and a nation leading 20 TDs. The ability of Ringer running the ball this week will no doubtably be the key component to a win or loss. Spartan QB Brian Hoyer has been less than spectacular this season. He has completed just 49% of his passes for 2029 yards 9 TDs and 6 ints. The defense has really been less than outstanding this season. They are allowing almost 340 yards per game and 19.5 points per game. Besides the really less than impressive numbers, Michigan St has really played an easy schedule this season. They have played just 1 ranked opponent and that was a 45-7 blowout loss to Ohio St. The SPartans did have last week off, so they have the extra week to prepare and get healthy for this key battle.

On the other side of the ball, we have the Penn St Nittany Lions. Penn St saw most of their BCS Championship hopes go flying through the uprights in Iowa 2 weeks ago when the Hawkeyes upset the Nittany Lions on a last second field goal. Still if things fall right, there is still a outside shot that they could get in. Penn St has plenty of weapons. On offense, QB Daryll Clark is a solid leader that has put up good numbers. For the season he is completing just under 60% of his passes for 1978 yards 13 TDs and just 4 interceptions. He has also rushed for 261 yards and 8 more scores. When Clark isn’t throwing the ball, he is handing it off the Evan Royster. Royster has run for 1123 yards at a 6.5 yards/attempt pace. He has also scored 12 TDs rushing. The offense is averaging 39.4 points per game and 442.6 yards per game. Defensively, Joe Pa’s crew is ranked 5th in the nation is points allowed at 11.9 points per game and 4th in yards allowed a 258.6 yards per game. They are also +8 in the Turnover ratio compared to Michigan State’s +3. Penn St has 2 wins over ranked opponents in Ohio St and Illinois plus a blowout victory early in the year over Oregon St 45-14, before the Pac-10 leading Beavers were ranked.

So how does this one play out. I expect the Nittany Lions to control the game, but look for Michigan St to try to keep the ball out of Clark’s hands by getting a strong ground attack with Ringer. The way both teams can run the ball, I expect a low scoring contest.Take MICHIGAN ST/PENN ST UNDER the total.