Lee Kostroski
Central Florida @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis -5
The Tigers have been on a nice roll after starting the season 0-3. Since then, this team has ripped off 5 wins in 7 games and their offense has been clicking. Expect their offense to look even better on Saturday as they get their starting QB Arkelon Hall back in the line up after a two game absence. Hall was really starting to roll when he was injured in the first offensive series @ East Carolina. The two games leading up to that one, Hall threw for 298 yards against UAB and 350 vs. Louisville.
One of the Tigers two losses since September 13th was at home to Louisville by a TD. In that game, Memphis out gained the Cards by a whopping 182 yards. Louisville scored on a kick return for a TD and on a fumble recovery. The Tigers turned it over three times otherwise they most likely win that game. Their other loss was @ ECU 30-10. However, as we mentioned, starting QB Arkelon Hall was injured on the first series of the game and did not return. What we didn’t mention was that his back up, Will Hudgens, hurt his knee just SIX plays later and did not return. Thus, Memphis was down to their third string QB just a few plays into the game. After that, they really had no chance @ ECU.
Memphis has an absolute HUGE edge on offense in this game. They put up 440 yards per game which is good for 20th nationally. UCF has been completely inept on offense averaging 235 YPG on offense which ranks them LAST in the nation. Last week’s 30-point outburst by UCF @ Marshall was a bit deceiving as they only gained 242 yards but recovered a fumble in the end zone and really benefited from four Herd turnovers. They have absolutely zero passing game as starter Rob Calabrese completes just 39% of his attempts. In last week’s win, Calabrese was just 4 of 17 for 29 yards! Before last week, the Golden Knights topped 19 points just once in their last seven games.
UCF is now on the road for the second straight game with nothing to play for. At 3-7, they cannot reach a bowl game. You can bet they are much more excited about next week’s home finale vs. UAB. Memphis, on the other hand, is in the hunt for a bowl game. A win here gets them bowl eligible and they host Tulane next Saturday which could get them to 7-5. They are getting healthy after a bye week and are ready to roll on Saturday. We’ll take the home team vs. the offensive challenged and fatigued visitor.
Tom Stryker
Tom's College Football System Play of the Week!
Season Finale Spread Beater
Over the past few weeks, I've turned you on to a couple of last home game and last road game sets that have been profitable. This week, I'm going to continue on with my late-season assault and rip apart a last game scenario that has been money-in-the-bank over the years.
This college football system deals with teams playing their last regular season game. When I first started doing research on "last game sets", I focused on teams coming off a string of straight up losses. My thought was that these schools would want to close on a high note with a victory in their last game. Honestly, I never found anything substantial with regards to straight up losses. But, I did uncover a very powerful situation that focused on teams entering off consecutive ATS blemishes. Take a look:
Play ON any college football team playing in its last regular season game provided they enter off two or more pointspread losses and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more straight up wins.
28 Year Record = 112-78-2 ATS for 58.9 percent!
Investing your hard earned money on a team that just lost to the pointspread two (or more) times in a row is tough. It's even more difficult to open up your wallet on a team like this when they are matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum off two (or more) straight up wins. The knee-jerk reaction would be to fade the team that hasn't covered. However, that's exactly what you don't want to do! On Saturday, there is one school locked into this "play on" situation: Penn State.
There are a couple of tighteners to this Season Final Spread Beater system that really make it pop. First, if our "play on" team lost to the pointspread by six points or more last, this awesome situation skyrockets to a sizzling 84-47 ATS for 64.1 percent. Thanks to a pair of non-covers including a blowout loss to the pointspread the last time out we are fortunate to get tremendous line value here. The Nittany Lions apply to this tightener.
Finally, with out 84-47 ATS in hand, this technical situation improves to an awesome 62-29 ATS provided our "play on" team is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .400 and less than .900. By eliminating the really good teams and those that are well below average, we improve this Spread Beater system to a marvelous 62-29 ATS for 68.1 percent. Penn State fits this special parameter.
Good luck with the Nittany Lions on Saturday and be sure to check back next week for some late-season NFL systems that really work! Good luck, TS.
Penn State
John Ryan
Syracuse vs. Notre Dame
Play: Syracuse +19.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Syracuse – Wow, could you imagine if somehow Syracuse would upset the Irish? Well, it has happened before with several double digit dogs who won SU again this year. I think the one that comes closest to this game was a monumental upset when O’le Miss defeated Florida at the swap as 24 point dogs. The projections for this game are a near mirror image of that one. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-18 ATS for 69% since 1997. Play against a home team that is a good team winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. ND is in a series of poor roles for this home game noting they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus mistake free teams 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992. Take Syracuse.
Tom Stryker
NOTRE DAME (-) over Loyola Marymount
What's not to like about the Irish in this spot?
Instead of looking ahead to EA Sports Maui Ivitational, Notre Dame head Coach Mike Brey has his troops focused on the task at hand - defeating Loyola, Marymount. This game will be the Dame's final tune up before the Invitational and Brey wants to make sure his troops are road tested and ready. A big victory here will give the Irish the confidence they need to succeed against the big boys that are on deck.
Technically speaking, this is an awesome spot for UND. According to my college basketball database, game two hardwood favorites priced at -16' or more are an outstanding 45-24 ATS for 65.2 percent provided they won by 30 points or more at home in their season opener last. This sweet system backs the Irish!
Loyola hasn't been worth a lick posting a dismal 18-52 SU and 16-43-2 ATS record in its last 70 games including 5-19-1 ATS in this set running against a non-conference foe. The Irish are on a mission right now and they've got too many weapons here. Take Notre Dame.
Nelly
Rice – over Marhsall
The Owls are scoring over 40 points per game but the defense is also allowing 470 yards per game. Rice has benefited from turnovers this season to produce a 7-3 record and currently sit tied on top of the C-USA West. Last season Rice lost to a then winless Marshall team so this could be a solid revenge spot for the Owls. After falling flat in a favorable homecoming spot last week it is tough to trust a Marshall offense on the road, featuring a scoring average of just 20 points per game. Rice has had solid success in the favorite role the past two years and can keep pace in the division standings with another win. Marshall should move the ball but it is tough to envision Rice being slowed down.
King Creole Sports
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma Sooners
Play on: OKLAHOMA SOONERS
An UNDEFEATED Team getting a ton of points on the road? And we're going AGAINST 'em? You better believe it.
Undefeated teams who still come in as underdogs do not do very well this late in the season.1-5 ATS since 1999 for all GAME NINE or greater UNDEFEATED conference road underdogs (Texas Tech).
If you believe that REVENGE plays a greater role this late in the season, there's only one way top go. Oklahoma still remembers last year's road loss to these Red Raiders 34-27.16-5 ATS since 2003 for all Conference home favorites of home teams with REST off a SUATS win (Oklahoma). Bring in an opponent also off a SU win (like Texas Tech), and the results improve to 16-5 ATS. If the opp is off 2 or more SU wins in a row (like Texas Tech), the results are 13-3 ATS... and 7-1 ATS if our rested home team is a FAVORITE (like Oklahoma).
O.C. Dooley
Miami-Ohio +3 at Toledo
Pick: Miami-Ohio +3
Since these two struggling teams with 2-8 overall records are identical, I will gladly TAKE whatever amount of points possible. I want all of you to be aware that Toledo head coach Tom Amstutz has resigned effective at the conclusion of the season. Odds are that Toledo will be more inspired to send their nine-year head coach out with a bang next week in the home-and-season finale. As just mentioned, both of these teams are similar in that both offenses have struggled, while the defenses have spent too much time on the field and have been a sive. Miami is averaging only 18 points per game, while Toledo is putting up 22 per pop. Both of the respective defenses on average have allowed a massive 30 points per contest. I for one am a bit shocked that Miami's defense has been so poor because one year ago they actually led the Mid-American Conference in literally every major statistical categoty. That Miami defense returned NINE starters which in my mind makes them "undervalued". The "veteran" Redhawks also open the door to a 73-PERCENT SYSTEM (51-19 since 1992). This system plays ON road underdogs like Miami off a double-digit conference loss, with 17+ returning starters! The last time Miami faced Toledo on the same field was way back in 2004, so I expect a CLOSE game this evening
Scott Ferrall
KANSAS STATE -10 to Iowa St--the Cyclones are 0-5 on the road
NEW MEXICO STATE +6 from Louisiana Tech--LT is 5-0 at home but 1-4 on the road. NMSU can throw it (8th in nation per game)--they both score 24 per week, so grab the number and cross your fingers
VIRGINIA TECH -17 to Duke--Hokies don't lose home games (4-0)
UAB +6.5 from East Carolina--upset here with the points
LOUISIANA MONROE +7.5 from Florida International--ULM is better in every department than FIU, including scoring per game
MINNESOTA +6 from Iowa--The Hawkeyes aren't a good road team (1-3)
LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE +10.5 from Troy--I know Troy is unbeaten at home, but ULL is 8th in the country in total yards and 3rd in rushing if you can believe it--that spells--take the points
UNLV -10 to San Diego St--this spread will be close, but the Rebels are better all around. SDSU is 1-4 at home
IDAHO +23.5 from Hawaii--just too many points to give the Vandals. Idaho runs the ball well.
Jim Feist
TENNESSEE / VANDERBILT
Take: VANDERBILT
Reason: Win one for Phil? Oh, that was two weeks ago, when Tennessee (3-7 SU, 1-8-1 ATS) took the field for soon-to-be departed coach Phil Fulmer, and laid an egg in an embarrassing 13-7 loss to Wyoming. The offense has been awful under first-year coordinator Dave Clawson, averaging 16 points, 104 yards rushing, 162 passing per game. Wyoming entered Neyland Stadium as a 26-point underdog, yet UT never led and compiled only 219 yards. While Tennessee is down, Vandy is sky-high. Vanderbilt (6-4 SU/7-3 ATS) beat Kentucky 31-24 Saturday night to gain bowl eligibility for the first time in 26 years. “There's a lot of pride and joy in that locker room, but we're not satisfied," Coach Bobby Johnson said. This is the first time in decades they've had a real shot to beat rival Tennessee. Play Vanderbilt!
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Michigan
The Wolverines look to put an end to the most disappointing season in school history when they take on the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe at Columbus today. Despite Michigan's abysmal season they have shown a spirited effort in their last two games, holding both Northwestern and Minnesota to season low yardage marks. The Wolves are 16-4 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points and have never lost five games in a row to Ohio State in this storied series. In the two games they played after losing each of the previous four years to the Buckeyes Michigan blanked OSU, 18-0 and 10-0, to snap the losing skids. In addition, Ohio State has not scored an offensive touchdown in Columbus since they hosted Minnesota the final week in September. The last time Michigan was anywhere near his large of a dog in this series they upended the Buckeyes, 13-6 at 17-point puppies in 1996 here in Columbus. Don't be at all surprised if this game comes down to who ever scores last wins it. Grab the generous points with the Wolverines.
Info Plays
3* on Michigan +21
Reasons why Michigan covers the spread Saturday:
1.) Everyone is counting them out, and this is their season. It has been a tough year for head coach Rich Rodriquez in his first year, but the Wolverines have one final chance to make their season with a win over their biggest rivals in Ohio State. Michigan will be ready to play Saturday, and Ohio State will be shocked by the effort they get from the Wolverines. Just as Minnesota was stunned when Michigan went into their house and came out with a 29-6 win a couple weeks back.
2.) Michigan will have a few tricks up their sleeves. Rodriquez has saved some plays for the Buckeyes that they won’t be expecting. Michigan knows they cannot beat the Buckeyes by playing conventional, so we guarantee they have something in store. But when they do have to play conventional, Michigan has the running game and the run defense that matches up well with Ohio State. Michigan has rushed for 177, 232, and 181 yards in their last 3 games overall for nearly a 200 RYPG average. The Michigan defense held Minnesota to just 83 rushing yards on 28 attempts and then held Northwestern to just 59 rushing yards on 37 attempts in their last two games. So the Wolverines have proven the can stop the run, and Ohio State relies heavily on their running game. The Buckeyes passed for just 49 yards against Illinois last game. Ohio State cannot get away with exclusively trying to run the ball against Michigan, and they will find that out early.
3.) System Play. Play On - Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. This is a 50-20 ATS System hitting 71.4% over the last 5 seasons. Ohio State has been blowing teams out, while Michigan has been struggling. But this is a rivalry game where anything can happen, and the numbers show that Michigan can compete with Ohio State courtesy of a solid running game and a stout run defense. Michigan will pull out all the tricks Saturday that they have been saving up for this one game. Bet Michigan on the road.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Maryland +1.5
The series have been dominated by the home team with the home side winning each of the last 5 meetings. Maryland has been a very strong home team this season with a 6-0 SU and a 4-1-1 ATS mark. Maryland also has some nice momentum on its side following a big upset win over UNC. Maryland is 15-5 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992 while FSU is 4-18 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games since 1992. Look for the Terps to stay unbeaten at home.
Jack Jones
1* on Boise State -5.5
I could sit here and rattle off a ton of different trends why Boise State is the play, but they all boil down to the Broncos being a covering machine. The truth of the matter is that Boise is one of just five teams in the nation that are undefeated and that accomplishment has them up to No. 9 in the BCS rankings. They beat No. 17 Oregon by five points early in the season, but since haven't won a single game by less than 13 points. Last weekend was no exception as they took apart Idaho 45-10 adn they should roll over Nevada this week as well. I just can't help myself though, so here are some trends I find interesting on this game. The Broncos are 28-10 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games and 24-7 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on BYU +7.5
The stakes could not be higher in this MWC battle with 10-1 BYU looking to keep Utah from an unbeaten season, outright MWC title, and a BCS Bowl bid. This series has been all about close encounters and I expect no different this time around. In 10 of the last 11 meetings, the game has been decided by seven points or less. Taking the points has been the play to make as well with the underdog covering the spread in 12 of the last 15 meetings. We can't ignore one system that has surfaced this week. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH) off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, undefeated on the season are 27-4 ATS since 1992. BYU is also 17-6 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992. All the pressure in on Utah in this spot and the Utes will buckle. Take the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Ole Miss +4
All Ole Miss does is rise to the occasion up against elite teams. The Rebs handed Florida a loss in the swamp earlier this season, the played Bama to a tight 4-point game on the road. Now the Rebels will take care of business at LSU this Saturday. Ole Miss has covered the spread against LSU in each of the past two seasons and is 6-2 ATS against the Tigers over the last 8 meetings in Baton Rouge. LSU is 0-6 ATS in home games this season and 6-24 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992. Take the points.