Karl Garrett
NC State +10' at NORTH CAROLINA
G-Man thinks this is too many points for the still "green" Tar Heels to be laying to their in-state rival this afternoon in Chapel Hill.
NC State has covered their last 4 games, and are on a 6-1-1 spread run their last 8 games overall. The 'Pack are also on the verge of capturing the "state championship", as Coach O'Brien's team has already posted straight up wins over East Carolina, Duke, and Wake Forest.
North Carolina is off a stinging loss at Maryland, and the G-Man would not be surprised to see that loss carry over in today's showdown.
Series numbers show NC State off the outright win and cover last season that stopped a 3-year losing streak. Tom O'Brien has gone 12-4 against the spread his last 16 lined games, and is on an overall underdog run of 23-9 since his days at Boston College.
I am taking the very generous impost in this one!
4♦ NC STATE
Chris Jordan
Brigham Young at UTAH -7
This Mountain West Conference battle is essentially another conference-clash spotlight, but it’s our Top 25 Showdown this week, as the Cougars will take on a Utes team that is hoping for a BCS bid.
Quite frankly, this might be the all-time best Utah clash in the history of the Beehive State. Many believed – ahem, hoped, I should say – these two would be undefeated headed into this contest. But TCU ended that dream when it stifled the Cougars easily last month.
This marks the second time ever both teams are ranked going into the contest, and the two teams' combined record, 21-1, has never been better.
Again, at 11-0, Utah has a BCS berth on the line and has already secured at least a piece of the MWC title. For BYU, there's a shot at a share of the Mountain West crown and an opportunity to shake up the postseason landscape on a national scale.
The key to the game is keep the defensive pressure on high intensity against BYU quarterback Max Hall. It’s what got the job done for TCU, as the Frogs forced Hall into bad passes. He threw two interceptions, he had two fumbles he was sacked six times.
I expect the defensive line to be huge in this one, and turning the momentum in its favor. The 11-0 Utes have allowed a mere 16.6 points per game and once Utah’s boys in the trenches get the crowd into the game, there will be no looking back.
Finally, looking inside the betting numbers, the Cougars wobble in on ATS skids of 1-4 on the road, 1-5 in conference games and 1-6 overall. On the other hand, we have a Utah team that is streaking against the spread, with marks of 8-2 in November, 4-1 in conference play, 6-2 at home, 10-4 against winning teams and 4-1 overall.
The home team is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings, so let’s lay the chalk with the Utes here.
4♦ UTAH
Chris Jordan
Oregon State +3 at ARIZONA
We’re going to delve into what is the most intriguing Pac 10 clash this week since the Wildcats have a chance to ruin Oregon’s State’s Rose Bowl hopes.
The 7-3 Beavers head to the desert with a 6-1 Pac-10 record and in need of a win against the 6-4 Wildcats, and another victory next week against Oregon in the regular season finale to clinch a Rose Bowl appearance. On the other hand, the Wildcats are looking to bounce back after coming out flat in last week’s 55-45 loss at Oregon. Arizona's defense will be under the gun again this week after giving up 504 total yards and six touchdowns to the Ducks.
Since the Ducks rushed for 206 yards, I’m wondering what Oregon State freshman Jacquizz Rodgers, the Pac-10 leading rusher at 123 yards per game, will run for in this game.
Looking inside some of the betting numbers of this game, the series edge easily goes to the Beavers, which has won and covered their last two and eight of their last nine against Arizona. Oregon State has also covered its last three on the road this seson and six of its of last eight away from Corvallis.
Overall the Beavers are on a 7-1 spread run. Though the Cats have now covered their last seven in Tucson – and four straight covers as the home chalk this season – the Beavers have a lot to play for in this one. I am taking the points with the Beavers.
4♦ OREGON STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Ole Miss +3' at LSU
Playing in Baton Rouge during the daylight hours is not nearly as intimidating as tangling with the Tigers at home under the lights, so we feel the Rebels have a definite chance to spring the upset of the Tigers this afternoon.
Ole Miss is coming off a 59-0 laugher over UL Monroe, while LSU needed their biggest all-time comeback effort in school history to beat back Troy 40-31 last Saturday.
Expect the Bayou Bengals to be a little gassed come the later stages of this contest, and expect Ole Miss to come through in the dog role once again for "Mr. Underdog" Houston Nutt.
Nutt coached teams are on a 9-1 spread run their last 10 as the road dog, and the Rebs have covered their last 5 on the road in the dog role.
Throw in the fact Ole Miss has covered 6 of the last 7 series meetings, and LSU is a dismal 1-14 against the spread as a SEC favorite their last 15, and they Tigers are also winless in 6 tries as a home favorite this year, and the mixture looks right for Mississippi to be right there at Tiger Stadium this Saturday afternoon.
Play on the Rebels.
3♦ OLE MISS
SPORTS ADVISORS
(2) Texas Tech (10-0, 5-3-1 ATS) at (5) Oklahoma (9-1, 7-2 ATS)
This week’s “Game of the Year” comes from Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., where offensive juggernauts Texas Tech and Oklahoma both return from bye weeks in this critical Big 12 South battle that also has national championship implications.
One week after their miraculous last-second 39-33 home win over then-No. 1 Texas, the Red Raiders had no problem avoiding a letdown as they dumped Oklahoma State 56-20, easily covering as a 3½-point home favorite for their third straight spread-cover. Heisman Trophy candidate Graham Harrell shined again, completing 40 of 50 passes for 456 yards with six TDs and no INTs, as Texas Tech rolled up 629 total yards and held the prolific Cowboys to just 368.
The Sooners prepped for this game with a 66-28 rout of Texas A&M as a 27-point road favorite back on Nov. 8. Bob Stoops’ offense had a ridiculous 653-278 yardage edge, and the defense forced all four of the game’s turnovers, returning one for a TD. QB Sam Bradford, himself a Heisman candidate, went 22-for-33 for 320 yards with four TDs versus A&M, and RBs DeMarco Murray (7 carries, 123 yards) and Chris Brown (13 carries, 117 yards) starred on the ground.
Texas Tech, which is off to a 10-0 start for the first time since 1938, leads the Big 12 South at 6-0, one game clear of Oklahoma and Texas. Both squads are 4-2 ATS in conference play.
The Red Raiders stunned then-third-ranked Oklahoma last year, winning 34-27 as a 7½-point home underdog in a game in which the Sooners’ Bradford and Murray were injured. Texas Tech had a 473-408 yardage advantage and led 34-10 early in the fourth quarter before holding off a furious OU rally. The home team has won the last four meetings and eight of the last 10, and the host has cashed in the last two after going 1-5 ATS in the previous six.
Oklahoma has scored at least 52 points in six games this season, including the last three in a row, and they lead the nation in scoring offense (51.4 ppg), rank fourth in total offense (549.8 ypg) and third in passing offense (355.5 ypg). Meanwhile, Texas Tech has scored at least 49 six times, and the Raiders’ offense also is in the Top 3 nationally in passing (433.7 ypg, 1st), scoring (48 ppg, 3rd) and total yards (566.3, 2nd). Lastly, both teams have tallied at least 35 points in every game this year.
At the QB position, Harrell is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for 4,077 yards (8.8 yards per attempt) with 36 TDs and five INTs, while Bradford is connecting at a 68 percent rate for 3,406 yards (10.3 per attempt) with 38 TDs and six INTs. On the ground, Texas Tech rushes for 132.6 ypg (5.2 per carry) compared with 194.3 rushing ypg for the Sooners (4.6 per carry).
Both teams are nearly even defensively. The Red Raiders allow 22.2 points and 351.4 yards per game (107.4 rushing ypg), while Oklahoma yields 23.6 points and 345.6 yards per outing (107.5 rushing ypg). However, over the last three games, the Sooners are surrendering 30.3 points and 415.3 yards per contest, compared with Tech’s per-game averages of 24.7 points and 352.3 yards in its last three.
The Sooners have won 59 of 61 games at Memorial Stadium since Stoops took over as coach in 1999, and they’re 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 home games. Additionally, Oklahoma is on ATS streaks of 6-2 in Big 12 play, 7-2 in November and 4-1 on grass.
Texas Tech has lost eight straight road games against Top 10 teams, but is 5-3 ATS in those contests. The Red Raiders are also 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams and 4-1 ATS in their last five in November. However, they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four on grass.
For Tech, the over streaks include 4-0 overall (all in Big 12 play), 5-1 on the road, 4-1 after a bye and 26-8 after a spread-cover. Oklahoma’s high-scoring trends include 6-0 overall (all Big 12 games this year) and 5-1 at home, but the under is 5-2-1 in the Sooners’ last eight after a bye. Finally, the under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(16) BYU (10-1, 3-7 ATS) at (8) Utah (11-0, 6-4 ATS)
The only thing that stands between eighth-ranked Utah and a BCS Bowl berth is archrival BYU, which will try to end the Utes’ dream season in this heated Mountain West Conference clash at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
Ten days after keeping their perfect record intact with a last-minute 13-10 come-from-behind home win over TCU, the Utes traveled to San Diego State and thumped the Aztecs 63-14, easily covering a 30-point spread. Utah’s offense amassed 515 yards and wasn’t forced to punt the entire game.
BYU struggled early at Air Force last week, but pulled away in the second half en route to a 38-24 victory as a four-point road chalk. The Cougars had 480 total yards (354 passing), but allowed 421 (323 rushing).
Utah can wrap up the Mountain West title with a win today, but should the Cougars prevail and should TCU win at home against Air Force, the three schools will be stuck in a three-way tie atop the conference at 7-1.
These schools have played three consecutive thrillers against one another. In 2005, the Utes traveled to BYU and won 41-34 in overtime as a 10-point underdog, but the Cougars got revenge in 2006, giving up the go-ahead score with 1:19 to play before marching down the field and scoring a touchdown on the final play of the game to prevail 33-31 as a 10-point road favorite. Finally, last season at BYU, Utah again scored a TD with less than two minutes to play to take a 10-9 lead, but the Cougars came back and got an 11-yard run with 38 seconds left to win 17-10, covering as a 4½-point home chalk.
Nine of the last 10 series meetings have been decided by seven points or fewer, including five by a field goal or less. As a result, the ‘dog has been the play in nine of the last 11 clashes in this rivalry.
These teams are nearly dead-even on the stat sheet on both sides of the ball. BYU averages 36.4 points and 448.5 total yards per game while allowing 18.7 points and 345.5 total yards per outing. Utah puts up 36.5 points and 402.1 total yards and surrenders 16.6 points and 287.5 total yards. The biggest discrepancies: The Utes (230 rushing, 172 passing ypg) are more balanced offensively than BYU (318.3 passing, 130 rushing ypg), and Utah has a stronger rush defense, yielding 97.5 ypg on the ground, compared with 148.5 ypg for the Cougars.
BYU snapped an 0-6 ATS slide overall and an 0-4 ATS road slump with last week’s cover against Air Force. and it is on additional of pointspread skids of 1-5 in Mountain West action and 3-10-1 against ranked teams. On the bright side, the Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Utah sports positive pointspread trends of 4-1 overall, 5-2-1 at home, 6-1-1 on field turf, 8-2 in November, 10-2 against ranked foes and 9-4-1 against winning teams.
The over is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head clashes at Rice-Eccles. Also, Utah is on over streaks of 9-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 5-2 in conference play. Lastly, the over is 3-1 in BYU’s last four overall (2-0 on the road).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(17) Michigan State (9-2, 6-4 ATS) at (7) Penn State (10-1, 6-3-1 ATS)
Penn State looks to lock up a Big Ten championship and an automatic BCS Bowl berth when it welcomes the Spartans to Happy Valley in the regular-season finale for both teams.
The Nittany Lions bounced back from their devastating last-second road loss at Iowa with last week’s 34-7 rout of Indiana, though they fell short of covering as a hefty 34½-point home chalk. Penn State, which had managed just 36 points in its previous two games, outgained the Hoosiers by 262 yards (442-180) and had a 257-57 edge in passing yards. Joe Paterno’s team has outgained every opponent this year but Ohio State, which had a scant 6-yard advantage.
Michigan State ran its winning streak to three in a row with a 21-7 win over Purdue as a 9½-point home favorite on Nov. 8 before taking last week off. The Spartans have alternated spread-covers in their last seven games, but they’re 3-0 SU and ATS in Big Ten road games, all as a favorite. As an underdog this season, Mark Dantonio’s squad is 0-2 SU and ATS.
Michigan State rallied past Penn State 35-31 as a 2½-point road underdog a season ago, negating a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to end a three-game losing skid to the Nittany Lions. The Spartans rolled up 425 yards in the victory while allowing 355. The host is 8-3 SU and ATS in the last 11 clashes between these schools – Penn State is 4-1 ATS in the last five in Happy Valley – and the ‘dog has cashed in three of the last four.
The Spartans are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 November contests, but otherwise they’re on ATS upticks of 8-2 on the road under Dantonio, 7-2 against winning teams and 9-4 after a SU victory. Penn State also has struggled against the number in November (1-5 last six), and the Lions are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Big Ten contests.
The over is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 series clashes, including 5-1 in the last six that Penn State has hosted. Also, the over is on stretches of 37-15-1 for Michigan State on the road, 11-4 for Michigan State in Big Ten action and 7-3 for Penn State after a victory. However, in November, the under is on runs of 8-3 for the Spartans and 7-3 for the Nittany Lions.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(9) Boise State (10-0, 5-3-1 ATS) at Nevada (6-4, 5-4 ATS)
Boise State is looking to crash the BCS party for the second time in three years, but first has two remaining hurdles to clear, including its final road game of the season today at Nevada in a Western Athletic Conference tussle.
The Broncos remained perfect with last week’s 45-10 thumping of Idaho, but they couldn’t cover the massive 36½-point number as they fell to 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight. Boise State has won its last three games by scores of 49-0, 49-14 and 45-10, and in their seven WAC wins, they’ve outscored the opposition 265-57, allowing no more than 16 points in any of those games. And in their last four, the Broncos have held total yardage edges of 186, 345, 258 and 197.
Nevada has won and covered back-to-back games, beating Fresno State 41-28 as a two-point road favorite two weeks ago before coming home and throttling San Jose State 41-17 as a 15½-point choice. The Wolf Pack have outgained their last four opponents by yardage margins of 190, 150, 234 and 247, going 3-1 SU and ATS during this stretch.
These rivals played arguably the most thrilling game of the college football season last year, with Boise State prevailing 69-67 in quadruple overtime. The teams combined for nearly 1,300 yards of total offense in the highest scoring Division I-A game since records were first kept in 1937. It was the eighth straight win for the Broncos in the series, but Nevada easily covered as a 25-point road underdog to halt an 0-7 ATS slide against Boise, all as an underdog.
The Broncos are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to Reno, winning by a combined margin of 140-35.
Long known for its offensive prowess, Boise State is doing the job on defense this year, ranking second in the nation in scoring defense (10.3 ppg), 12th in total defense (285.5 ypg) and 12th in rushing defense (103.2 ypg). However, the Wolf Pack field the nation’s second-best rush defense, giving up just 64 ypg on the ground and a scant 2.3 yards per rush. Nevada also leads the nation in rushing offense at 325 ypg and ranks second with 35 rushing TDs.
On the offensive end, Boise State averages 37.1 points and 450.4 total yards per game (287 passing ypg), which is slightly less than Nevada’s per-game output of 38.5 points and 523.5 total ypg. However, unlike the Broncos’ stingy defense, the Wolf Pack have been torched for an average of 30.6 points and 318 passing yards per contest.
Boise State is on ATS runs of 7-3-1 in WAC action, 4-1 on the road, 27-9-2 in November and 31-12-1 against winning teams. Nevada also carries several positive pointspread trends, including 21-7 at home, 7-3 in November, 5-2 in conference and 9-4 versus winning teams.
For the Broncos, the under is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 6-2 on the road, 8-3 in the WAC and 6-2 in November. Also, Nevada has stayed under the total in eight of its last 11 home games and seven of its last nine in November. However, the total has alternated in Boise’s last five games and the Wolf Pack’s last seven.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE and UNDER
(20) Pittsburgh (7-2, 4-4 ATS) at (19) Cincinnati (8-2, 5-4 ATS)
First place in the Big East is up for grabs when Pitt travels to Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats.
Cincinnati has won three straight games, including last week’s 28-20 victory at Louisville, cashing as a four-point road favorite. The Bearcats sit a half-game ahead of Pitt and West Virginia in the conference standings and with lowly Syracuse (2-8) left on the schedule, Cincinnati would virtually wrap up the Big East title with a victory today.
Pittsburgh had last week off after crushing Louisville 41-7 on Nov. 8, easily cashing in as a six-point home favorite. Star RB LeSean McCoy had run for at least 142 yards in the five games prior to the Louisville contest, when he was held to a career-low 39 rushing yards, but QB Bill Stull stepped up and went 15-for-27 for 216 yards and a TD while the defense forced five turnovers, returning two for touchdowns in a span of 50 seconds in the fourth quarter.
The Bearcats are 4-0 on their home field this season (2-1 ATS), averaging 30.5 points a game and giving up 11.8. On the opposite side, Pittsburgh has won five straight road games (4-1 ATS) going back to last season, and in their four road victories this year, the Panthers are averaging 34.5 points and 202.2 rushing ypg, while the defense yields 24.8 ppg on foreign turf.
The Panthers have won all seven career meetings with Cincinnati, including the last three since the Bearcats joined the Big East (3-0 ATS). McCoy ran for 137 yards in Pitt’s 24-17 victory over Cincinnati last season, with the Panthers cashing as 9½-point home ‘dogs. The last time Pitt went to Cincinnati in 2006, it scored a 33-15 win as a seven-point road chalk.
Pitt is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 November games, but it’s on ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on the road and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 20-9-2 overall, 11-4 at home, 13-4-2 after a spread-cover, 6-2-1 in conference play and 5-0-1 in November games.
The Panthers are on under streaks of 7-3 in conference action and 5-2 when they face a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bearcats have stayed under the total in six of their last seven home games and four of their last five on turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and UNDER
Boston College (7-3, 5-4 ATS) at Wake Forest (6-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Eagles hope to continue their march toward an ACC Atlantic Division title when they match up against Wake Forest at Groves Stadium in Winston-Salem, N.C.
Boston College will earn its second straight berth in the ACC title game with a win today over Wake Forest and a victory next week at home against Maryland. A week after shutting out Notre Dame 17-0 at home, the Eagles went to Florida State and pulled off a 27-17 upset win as seven-point underdogs. Freshman RB Montel Harris ran for 121 yards and a TD, and B.C. used a 16-play drive to eat up a good chunk of the fourth quarter.
The Demon Deacons had a two-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 21-17 loss at North Carolina State 21-17 as a 3½-point chalk, dropping to 1-4 ATS in their last four. Wake Forest leads the ACC with 29 turnovers and is ranked third in the country with a plus-14 turnover margin. Junior QB Riley Skinner has been managing the game well for Wake Forest, throwing for 1,882 yards with 11 TDs and five INTs.
The home team has won each of the last four meetings in this rivalry (3-1 ATS), with Boston College getting a 38-28 win last year as a six-point favorite. Wake Forest had cashed in all four previous meetings with the Eagles, and the Deacons have been an underdog in all five contests in this series.
The Eagles are on ATS slides of 2-6 in ACC games, 1-6 after a spread-cover and 2-6 after a straight-up win. Also, the Demon Deacons are on pointspread downturns of 1-4 overall, 1-4 in ACC action and 1-4 on grass, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 7-3 at home, 16-7 against teams with a winning record and 10-2 after a non-cover.
The over is 5-2 in B.C.’s last seven games overall, including 4-1 in its last five ACC contests, but the under is 8-3 in its last 11 on the road, 6-2 in its last eight against a winning teams and 4-1 in its last five November contests. The over is 5-1 in the Demon Deacons last six in November, but the under is 6-2 its last eight overall, 5-2 in its last seven ACC games and 6-2 in its last eight on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Florida State (7-3, 4-4 ATS) at (22) Maryland (7-3, 5-4 ATS)
Four wins over ranked opponents this season have the Terps in the Top 25 and on the verge of clinching a berth in the ACC title game as they host Florida State in a key conference showdown at Byrd Stadium in College Park, Md.
Maryland improved to 6-0 at home this season (4-1 ATS) with last week’s come-from-behind 17-15 win over North Carolina as a three-point underdog. The Terps, who are 6-0 against ranked foes going back to last year, now control their own destiny in the ACC’s Atlantic Division and can qualify for the conference title game with wins over Florida State today and Boston College next weekend. Maryland QB Chris Turner has been much more consistent at home, completing 61.3 percent of his throws for 967 yards, six TDs and just two INTs.
The Seminoles have lost two of their last three, including last week’s 27-17 setback at home to Boston College as a seven-point favorite. The Seminoles managed just 285 total yards in the defeat and sophomore QB Christian Ponder was picked off three times, giving him 11 TD passes and 11 INTs on the season.
Florida State is 16-2 all-time in this series, including 11-2 SU (9-4 ATS) in the last 13. The home team has won each of the last five (4-1 ATS), including last year’s 24-16 win for the Seminoles in Florida, as they narrowly cashed as 7½-point favorites. The last time these teams met in Maryland, the Terps scored a 27-24 upset as 3½-point ‘dogs.
The ‘Noles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after both a straight-up loss and a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Terps are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after a straight-up win, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 5-1 at home, 4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
The under is 18-8 in Florida State’s 26 November games, but otherwise the ‘Noles are on over stretches of 5-2 overall, 6-2 on the road, 11-3 after a straight-up loss and 5-2 after a non-cover. Maryland is on under streaks of 5-1 overall, 7-1 in ACC contests, 4-0 in November and 13-6 at home against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND
Michigan (3-8, 2-9 ATS) at (10) Ohio State (9-2, 4-6 ATS)
Michigan closes out the worst season in its 129-year history when it travels to Columbus looking to avoid its fifth straight loss to hated Ohio State.
The Wolverines fell 21-14 to Northwestern last week as a three-point home favorite, marking the first time in history that the program lost eight games in a single season. Michigan actually held a slight 264-257 edge in total offense against the Wildcats, including a 181-59 rushing advantage, yet still dropped to 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games.
Ohio State returns home after two convincing road wins over Northwestern (45-10 as a 12½-point chalk) and Illinois (30-20 as a nine-point favorite). Last week against the Illini, the Buckeyes actually got outgained 455-354, but they outrushed Illinois 305-214. Beanie Wells (143 yards) and QB Terrelle Pryor (110) did the bulk of the damage on the ground and each scored a touchdown, but Pryor had just 49 passing yards.
Ohio State traveled to Michigan last year and had little trouble with the Wolverines in a 14-3 victory, cashing as a four-point favorite. During its four-game winning streak in this rivalry, Ohio State is 3-1 ATS, and the Buckeyes have won three straight meetings in Columbus (2-1 ATS). Lastly, OSU is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes overall, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
Michigan is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams with a winning home mark. Otherwise, the Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in Big Ten play this year and 1-4 ATS in their last five in November. Ohio State has failed to cash in six straight home games and is in additional ATS slumps of 1-6 on artificial turf and 1-4 against losing teams. However, Jim Tressel’s squad is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 Big Ten games and 4-1 ATS in its last five in November.
The over is 4-1 in the last five Michigan-Ohio State battles overall and 4-1 in the last five in Columbus. Also, the over is on runs of 6-1 for the Wolverines on the road, 5-2 for the Wolverines in Big Ten action and 6-1 for the Buckeyes in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and OVER
Iowa (7-4, 5-4 ATS) at Minnesota (7-4, 7-3 ATS)
Two Big Ten teams headed in opposite directions close out the regular season against each other, with surging Iowa traveling to the Metrodome to play slumping Minnesota.
The Hawkeyes narrowly avoided the classic letdown last week, edging Purdue 22-17 after stunning unbeaten and No. 2 Penn State 24-23 the previous game. Iowa has won four of its last five, and even though it came up well short as a 17½-point home chalk last week, the team is still on a 4-2 ATS uptick.
Minnesota started the season 7-1 SU and ATS, with its only loss coming at Ohio State. But since then, the Golden Gophers have dropped three in a row – two upset home losses to Northwestern (24-17) and Michigan (29-6), followed by last week’s 35-32 setback at Wisconsin. Minnesota, which tied the Badgers at 24 early in the fourth quarter, did manage to cash as a 13½-point road underdog a week ago, halting a two-game ATS hiccup.
Iowa has won six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and is 7-2 ATS in the last nine. However, the Gophers’ two spread-covers have come the last two years, including in 2007 when they went to Iowa during the midst of a 1-10 season and lost 21-16 as a 14½-point underdog. The home team is 6-2 SU in the last eight meetings (3-0 in the last three), and the chalk is 5-2 ATS in the last seven.
Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 on artificial turf, but the Hawkeyes have failed to cover in four of their last five in November, and they’re 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite since 2003 (but 1-0 this year). Minnesota is on pointspread swings of 7-2 in the Big Ten, 4-1 against winning teams and 5-1 after a spread-cover.
The over is on a 6-1 roll in this rivalry, and four of the last five in the Metrodome have gone high. However, both teams are on several under streaks, including 16-6-1 for Iowa overall, 19-7-1 for Iowa on the road, 10-2-1 for Iowa after a victory, 5-1 for Minnesota overall (all vs. the Big Ten) and 4-0 for Minnesota in the dome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(21) Oregon State (7-3 SU and ATS) at Arizona (6-4 SU and ATS)
Oregon State’s quest for its first Pac-10 championship in more than 40 years continues when it travels to the desert for a meeting with conference rival Arizona.
The Beavers enter this contest on a five-game winning streak after last week’s 34-21 rout of Cal, cashing as a 3½-point home favorite to improve to 7-1 ATS in their last eight. Oregon State outscored the Bears 17-7 in the second half and had a 194-85 yard edge in rushing, as the defense allowed just 232 total yards and 11 first downs.
Oregon State, which opened the season with a 36-28 Pac-10 road loss to Stanford, has since won six straight league games (5-1 ATS) and is a half-game behind USC in the league standings. However, the Beavers, who haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since the 1964 season, control their own destiny in the conference race based on their stunning 27-21 home win over the then-No. 1 Trojans back on Sept. 5.
Arizona was in Oregon last week as well, and the Wildcats got run over in a 55-45 loss to the Ducks, failing to cover as a six-point underdog. Arizona actually outgained Oregon 527-504, but committed three of the game’s four turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD.
The Beavers have dominated this rivalry, winning two in a row and eight of the last nine both SU and ATS. Last year, Oregon State cruised to a 31-16 victory as a three-point favorite, and they’ve won three straight meetings in Tucson going back to 2000, all by a touchdown or more. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 series battles, and the favorite has cashed in six of the last seven.
Both teams feature prolific offenses, with the Beavers averaging 33.7 points and 416.7 total yards per game (244.2 passing, 172.5 rushing) and Arizona rolling up 39.7 points and 413 total yards per game (250.5 passing, 172.5 rushing). OSU has scored at least 27 points during its 7-1 SU run, while the Wildcats have tallied 42 or more in four of their last six contests.
Going back to last season, Oregon State is on ATS runs of 14-4 overall, 6-2 on the highway (3-0 last three), 10-2 after a victory and 4-1 in November, and the Beavers are also 43-18 ATS in their last 61 games after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Arizona has covered in seven straight home games (4-0 this year) and is on additional pointspread hot streaks of 10-4 overall, 8-3 in Pac-10 action, 9-2 on grass, 5-1 after a non-cover and 6-1 against winning teams.
The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 clashes between these schools. However, the over is 5-2 in OSU’s last seven road tilts and 9-4 in Arizona’s last 13 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE
Ole Miss (6-4, 6-3 ATS) at (18) LSU (7-3, 2-7 ATS)
The Rebels gun for their fourth straight victory overall and their first win over LSU in seven years when they invade Tiger Stadium for a battle between teams tied for second place in the SEC West.
Ole Miss stepped out of conference last Saturday and pummeled Louisiana-Monroe 59-0 as a 22-point home favorite, improving to 3-0 SU in its last three games and 3-1 ATS in it last four. The Rebels, who are in their first year under coach Houston Nutt, are 3-3 SU and ATS in SEC play, tied with LSU in the West division, and they’ve alternated spread-covers in all six league contests.
LSU survived a major scare last week against Troy, rallying from 31-3 fourth-quarter deficit to win 40-31, never threatening to cover as a 16-point home favorite. LSU, which scored 37 unanswered points in the final 16½ minutes of the game, got outgained 380-340, but forced three of the game’s four turnovers. The defending national champs started the season 4-0, but have alternated SU wins and losses in their last seven games, and they’re 0-4 ATS in their last four.
The Tigers have won six straight meetings in this rivalry going back to 2002, but Ole Miss is 6-1 ATS the last seven years (all as an underdog) and 8-2 ATS in the last 10. Last year, LSU prevailed 41-24, but the Rebels cashed as a 20-point road home pup. Despite that cover, the visitor is on a 7-2 ATS roll when these teams face off, and Ole Miss has covered in each of its last six trips to Death Valley.
Ole Miss enters this contest on pointspread streaks of 9-3 overall, 5-1 on the highway, 5-0 as a road underdog, 5-1 on grass, 5-0-1 in November and 7-2 against winning teams. Conversely, the Tigers not only have failed to cover in four straight games overall, but they’re also mired in ATS funks of 4-14-1 overall, 0-6 at home, 1-14 as a home chalk in conference action, 1-4 in SEC play, 0-5 in November and 1-4 against winning teams.
The under is 8-3 in the Rebels’ last 11 road games, 5-2 in their past seven SEC battles and 9-4 in their last 13 on grass. On the other hand, LSU is in the midst of over streaks of 14-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 12-3 on grass, 13-3 in SEC action, 7-1 in November and 12-1 after a victory. Lastly, three of the last four head-to-head meetings have topped the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS and OVER
Jeff Benton
I've hit four of my last five complimentary releases after Duke held on for the spread-cover against Michigan on the hardwood on Friday. For Saturday’s freebie in College Football, we’ll go to the ACC and play Boston College as a small underdog at Wake Forest.
Don’t mind backing the Eagles here, even though this is their second straight conference road game. For one thing, B.C. is playing its best football at the right time, winning its last two games in impressive fashion over Notre Dame (17-0 at home) and Florida State (27-17 on the road). Last week’s victory over the Seminoles was especially noteworthy, as it really was the first time this year that the Eagles’ defense shut down a prolific offense (in back-to-back losses to potent Clemson and North Carolina, B.C. gave up a combined 72 points).
Today, that defense goes up against an inconsistent Wake Forest offense that’s been limited to 17 points or fewer six times in the last eight games. And against the five best defenses the Demon Deacons have faced this year – Florida State, Navy, Clemson, Maryland and Miami, Fla. – Wake produced a total of 51 points and four touchdowns.
Now, the Demon Deacons have ridden a solid defense to a 4-1 home record, but looking back, only one of those victories (Ole Miss in Week 2) was a quality win, and Wake needed a 41-yard field goal at the buzzer to pull that one out, 30-28.
Boston College has an edge in virtually every matchup in this game today, including motivation, as a victory keeps the Eagles in the hunt for the ACC Championship game. Meanwhile, Wake is simply playing out the string, and it showed in last week’s 21-17 loss at lowly North Carolina State, as the Deacons failed to cover for the fourth time in its last five games as a favorite.
4♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the Washington Huskies in the Apple Cup.
I am the last person to lay points like this on the road and to make matters worse I am doing just that with a terrible winless Washington Huskies squad in a rivalry game and that definitely does sound fairly stupid. But, and a big but here, there is bad and then there is bad!
This Washington State squad very well may be the worst FBS team in the entire nation. You have the Cougars along with a few other beauties that may include the likes of Idaho and San Diego State. It is basically High School football that these teams play.
Paul Wulff has done a horrific job this season with the Cougs. Obviously Ryan Leaf is long gone but these guys cannot even compete. They are the college hoops version of Oregon State as game in and game out it is a total burial by the half. They do have a win though thanks to a game against Portland State but take that out of the mix and here are the results in those defeats:
39-13, 66-3. 45-17, 63-14, 28-3, 66-13, 69-0, 58-0, 59-28 and 31-0.
I do realize that the Jake Locker-less Huskies are fairly dismal themselves and have been blown out as well in their share of games but not nearly like Washington State and with some players wanting to play hard for Ty Willingham as well as needing a win to avoid a winless season I just cannot see the visitors do anything but grab the rare victory today.
Like I said up top there is bad and then there is bad and that is the exact scenario here. To equate this to Black Jack, we may be a 13 but they are a 16. There is no way that the Huskies walk off this field a loser and to only lay single digitis against today's opponent is a steal!
Jake Timlin
Not going bowling this year Wyoming will settle for the next best thing and that is keeping their arch rivals from playing in one. The same Colorado State team the lost 24-0 in their last trip to Laramie and who is also a money burning 0-5 ATS on the highway this season. Meanwhile, for Wyoming even though this year has been a major disappointment the Cowboys have been playing much better as of late and earning back the Bronze boot will help ease the pain of a losing season. Plus, with Wyoming gunning to send the beloved Joe Glenn out a winner I don’t expect the Cowboys to lay down their guns to without a fight. So in a mild upset I say take the Cowboys plus the points as they win outright.
All Wyoming!
BIG AL
Clemson at Virginia
Last week, UVa dropped its second straight game, 28-17 at Wake Forest, and Al Groh's men are now 5-5 on the year. Clemson also is 5-5, and the winner of this game will have achieved Bowl Eligibility status. Let's play on the Cavaliers here, as Virginia is 17-1 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes, provided Virginia lost its previous game, did not cover the spread in that loss, and is now NOT laying 3 or more points. Take Virginia.
Play on: Virginia
Jimmy The Moose
Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Over
Chicago has played over the total in 3 of their last 4 games. The over is a profitable 12-5 for the Blackhawks this season. On the road Chicago is averaging 2.86 GPG while giving up 3.14 and that has seen they play the over in 5 of their 6 road games this season. Toronto has played over the total in 9 of their last 10 games. The Leafs have played the over in 3 of their last 4 home games. Look for another high scoring game from two team's that play wide open hockey. Play the over.
Game Time Sports Advisors
Mississippi vs. LSU
Play:Mississippi +3.5
Something seem a little weird with this line? LSU stuggled with Troy last week then woke up in the 4th quarter. I don't think LSU has been the same since the Florida beating. Miss is a good team, and their 4 losses are by a combined 19 points. What's that smell? Upset! MISSISSIPPI
Sportsbettingstats
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Last week both teams had the week off. This is the last big test for the Red Raiders after beating Kansas, Missouri, and Texas, as if they win this tough away game they will be the Big 12 South Division Champion. The Sooners can still win the division, but they not only need to win this game but Texas has to lose. The Red Raiders are led by Graham Harrell (4077 yds 36 TD 5 INT) and his main targets are Michael Crabtree (78 rec 1010 yds 18 TD) and Detron Lewis (57 rec 730 yds 1 TD). The Red Raiders rushing attack is led by the duo of Baron Batch (667 yds 5 TD) and Shannon Woods (558 yds 5 TD). The Sooners are led by QB Sam Bradford (3406 38 TD 6 INT) and his main targets are Juaquin Iglesias (51 rec 853 yds 6 TD) and Manuel Johnson (34 rec 587 yds 8 TD). The Sooners rushing attack is led by DeMarco Murray (804 yds 11 TD) and Chris Brown (782 yds 12 TD).
Staff Pick: This game features 3 Heisman candidates in Harrell, Bradford, and Crabtree and if one of those guys has a huge game tonight they may win the award. These 2 teams are all offense, as the Red Raiders have the nation's top ranked passing offense while the Sooners rank 3rd. However, the key to the game may be which team can play some D. The Sooners have an advantage running the ball, as they rank 25th in the nation and the Red Raiders only rank 74th. If Murray and Johnson can pick up some yards on the ground for the Sooners and eat up some clock they will have a big advantage, keeping the dynamic offense of the Red Raiders on the sideline. Oklahoma has won 23 straight home games and Norman is never an easy place for an opponent to win, to say the least. It will be tough for the Red Raiders to stop the Oklahoma offense, since they have scored at least 35 points in every game this season. Both teams are pretty even on defense, as the Sooners rank 55th in the nation and the Red Raiders rank 60th. This game has major BCS and possible National Championship ramifications. This is the Red Raiders year and they will score a ton of points, as will the Sooners, but they will come out on top snap OU's long home winning streak and head to the Big 12 Championship game as the South Division champion.
Red Raiders 48 Sooners 43
Tom Freese
Iowa at Minnesota
Iowa is 8-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less passing yards in their last game and they are 32-13 ATS after covering ATS in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games. Minnesota is 5-11 Straight Up and 4-12 ATS their last 16 meetings with the Hawkeyes. The Golden Gophers a 3-9-1 ATS their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. PLAY ON IOWA -
Dennis Macklin
Michigan at Ohio State University
Prediction: Ohio State University
For whatever reason, the Wolverines seem to be getting some love at the window during the week. Sure it's a big number and this is among the top three rivalries in CFB but this edition of Michigan IS the worst ever at Ann Arbor and what reason would Tressel have to not kick Blue while it's down ??? Tressel 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the series and the LYs Buckeyes (who returned everyone) held a better Wolves team to 91 yards offense. No need to handicap further or make more of it than it is, Ohio State can name the score. Let's call it OSU 31-7.