LT Profits
Florida International +5.0
This is a double revenge spot for the Florida International Golden Panthers, who lost this rivalry matchup each of the last two years including an embarrassing 55-23 defeat at home last season.
Very little separates these teams this season however, as FIU is averaging 21.9 points per game giving up 28.0 points per contest, while FAU is scoring 22.3 and allowing 27.5. With numbers this close, this game should come down to intangibles, so the huge revenge motive becomes even more significant here.
Also note that this game is on a neutral field, and FIU has been the more competitive of these teams away from home this season. The Golden Panthers are averaging a respectable 21.7 points per game on the road, and while they are losing their road games by an average of -10.0 points, that is only because they lost at Iowa 42-0 and at Kansas 40-10. They have more than held their own with teams that are on the same level.
Conversely, FAU has struggled on the road, averaging just 13.3 points while losing by an average of -14.7 points per game. They also look awful in a 28-14 loss at Arkansas State last week, as the game was not as close as the score would indicate. In fact, the Owls were outgained by a total of 223 total yards.
All things considered, this game should be a lot closer to a Pick, so we see good value with Florida International at this price.
Pick: Florida International +5
Matt Fargo
Miami FL @ NC State
PICK: NC State
NC State has once again emerged as a possible bowl contender. With three straight wins, the Wolfpack are 5-6 and are one victory away from becoming bowl eligible. They are coming off a huge road win at rival North Carolina and pieces from last season will pay a big role in this game. NC State went to Miami last season and defeated the Hurricanes in overtime. That was the third of four straight wins for the Wolfpack who started the season 1-5 and were in a similar position they are now.
They were 5-5 and with two games left, all they needed was one win to make it to a bowl game after missing out in 2006. NC State was hammered at Wake Forest but still had a shot with a home game against Maryland. The Wolfpack were obliterated at home by the Terrapins 37-0 and were without a postseason spot for a second straight year. With this being the same scenario as last season, look for NC State to look back at that lesson learned and come out strong on Saturday.
Watching Miami on Thursday showed that it recent five-game winning streak may have been a fluke. I thought the Hurricanes would have come in with more energy riding a big streak but they were smacked in the face early and often and were crushed by the Yellow Jackets. Looking back at the run shows only one big win at Duke with the other four victories coming by a touchdown or less. The hurricanes are young and it certainly showed and coming back off that defeat will be even tougher.
At the start of the season, redshirt freshman quarterback Russell Wilson was fourth on the depth chart and it looked as though playing time would be sparse. However, he has come along quickly as is turning into one of the better quarterbacks in the conference. He has passed for 14 touchdowns while only tossing one interception. He has thrown five touchdown passes in each of his last five games and is coming off his best performance of the season where he threw for a season high 279 yards.
The Wolfpack have not been a strong rushing team but they have come on of late, culminating with a season high 187 yards against the Tar Heels. After averaging 80 ypg through their first six games, they have put up an average of 161.4 ypg over their last five games. Miami went into the Georgia Tech game with the 19th ranked rushing defense. It came out ranked 57th after allowing an unheard of 486 yards rushing. Don’t expect those kinds of numbers from NC State but the balance will keep Miami on its heels. 3* NC State Wolfpack
Tony George
Florida -16.5 vs. Florida State
What can you say about Florida? They are just spanking everyone and are covering MONSTER Spreads, 6-0 ATS run their last 6 against some good teams. Florida State is totally outmanned here in this game. Florida's Urban Meyer will have no mercy as he tries to get his QB back in the race for the Heisman and his team to leapfrog someone in the BCS as well. FSU lost to Georgia Tech at home and recently were beaten by Boston College by 10 points. Think about that a minute, losers to a so /so BC team by double digits, now playing a red hot team averaging 56 ppg their last 3 games. Florida destroyed the SEC's number 1 ranked defense of South Carolina by pounding them 56-6, so I put little stock in an ACC team who averages 18 ppg allowed, because they are playing in the ACC, which is not a good conference.
To further explain laying a large number like this in an in-state rivalry type game, if Florida State was to play Georgia this this weekend in Tallahassee, Georgia would be favored by at least 4 or 5 in that game scenario. Florida POUNDED Georgia on a neutral site by 39 points laying 7 (I was all over them), without even breaking a sweat. I have NO problems laying slight over 2 TD's here. The SEC is so far above the ACC in terms of parity, talent, speed and coaching it is unfathomable. As a matter of fact I would put up the Mountain West conference against the ACC and they would have a better record. Florida State is not even leading the ACC conference which is even more scary for FSU backers this weekend.
Florida may still get into the national title game as they have to win the SEC championship to do it, and ANY SEC Champion or Big 12 champion deserve to play in a title game against one another. I have NO doubts that the Gators bite will be quite large this weekend as they are on a mission to win a national title with perhaps one of the best teams Urban Meyer has ever coached. No matter what Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Bowden dream up in terms of an offensive counterpunch, they cannot match the power and speed and talent that the Florida Gators have in this one, even at home on Senior Day in Tallahassee.
Selection. Florida 49 Florida State 17
Totals 4U
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
The Sooners demolished the previously undefeated Red Raiders in Norman last week, piling up 625 offensive yards while keeping WR Michael Crabtree (18 TD catches in 2008) out of the end zone. Sophomore QB Sam Bradford (238 of 349 for 3710 yards, 42 T, 6 INT) has built legitimate Heisman Trophy caliber season behind an experienced line of four seniors and a junior, averaging 6’5” and 310 pounds, with a simply ridiculous assortment of weapons at his disposal. Running backs sophomore DeMarco Murray (164 for 929 yards and 13 TD), junior Chris Brown (149 for 890 and 15 TD), and sophomore Mossis Madu (95 for 349 and 3 TD) make up one of the nation’s best groups and lead a unit that grinds out 203.8 yards per game at 4.7 yards per carry with 35 touchdowns. Wide Receivers senior Quentin Chaney (22 for 393 yards and 2 TD), senior Manuel Johnson (35 for 653 and 9 TD), senior Juaquin Iglesias (52 for 881 and 7 TD), and freshman Ryan Broyles (31 for 528 and 6 TD) provide just too many quality targets for most teams to match up with down the field and with a player that possess the size/ball skills combination of 6’6” 261 junior TE Jermaine Gresham (41 for 648 and 10 TD) in the middle, defenses can only pick which poison. For the season, this crew has averaged 52.6 points (#1 NCAA) on 556.6 yards (#3 NCAA) per game and they are only getting better with 58, 62, 66, and 65 points their last four games versus Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech.
Head Coach Bob Stoops’s (107-23 in 11th season at Norman) defense has been sharp all season, with the exception of Oklahoma’s 35-45 loss to Texas on October 11th, but are without a couple of key players. 6’4” 249 freshman LDE Frank Alexander (11 T, 2 ½ TFL, 2 S, 2 FR) will go in place of Auston English (27 T, 9 TFL, 4 ½ S, FR in 9 games) while 6’2” 221 freshman MLB Austin Box (33 T, 6 TFL, INT) will get another start in place of Ryan Reynolds (44 T, 5 TFL in 6 games). The good news for Sooner fans is their school has plenty of quality players around the freshmen starters but as a unit this group is very young. Starting defensive linemen LDT Adrain Taylor (17 T, 5 ½ TFL, 4 ½ S), RDT Gerald McCoy (22 T, 9 ½ TFL, 6 1 ½ S), and RDE Jeremy Beal (44 T, 112 ½ TFL, 7 ½ S) are all sophomores yet have been dominating the line of scrimmage with 38 team sacks through 11 games while holding opposing rushers to just 3.1 yards per carry. Another youngster making a huge impact is 6’2” 232 freshman WLB Travis Lewis who has racked an amazing 117 tackles with 10 ½ for loss including 3 ½ sacks while snatching 4 interceptions in his first season. Remember this name! Good size in the defensive backfield is key in the Big 12 these days and the Sooners have it, led by 6’1” 201 senior FS Lendy Holmes (65 T, 1 ½ TFL) who has 7 of the school’s 27 forced turnovers with 4 picks and 3 fumble recoveries. By the numbers, Oklahoma allows 23.4 points on 351.1 yards per game but keep your eye on the return game. Opponents have returned 3 kicks for scores this campaign.
Oklahoma State (9-2, 5-2 Big 12) The Cowboys have had two weeks to prepare for the latest edition of the Bedlam Series at Boone Pickens Stadium, topping Colorado 30-17 in Boulder last trip out. Head Coach Mike Gundy (27-21 in 4th season at Stillwater) ended his college playing career as this conference’s (Big 8 at the time) All-Time Passing Leader so you know he loves being on the march but his team’s defensive squad is very respectable. Defensive tackles Tonga Tea (17 T, 3 ½ TFL, S), Jeray Chatham (10 T, 2 TFL, S, 2 FR), and Swanson Miller (13 T, 2 TFL) haven’t piled up the big numbers of some but have done a great job of holing the point against the run (118.0 yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry, 12 TD), setting up a dynamite corps of junior linebackers to make the big plays. SLB Andre Sexton (86 T, 4 TFL, 1 ½ S, INT, FR), MLB Orie Lemon (76 T, 3 ½ TFL, 2 FR), and WLB Patrick Lavine (61 T, 2 TFL, 2 INT, FR) are each stellar tacklers and have combined to make all 33 possible starts in 2008. Against the level of competition, as we’ve noted before, defensive backfield play is critical and with just 13 team sacks this group has been tested but has also delivered. Cornerbacks 6’0” Perrish Cox (28 T, TFL, INT) and 5’11” Jacob Lacey (48 T, 2 TFL, 2 INT) have faced some of the best talent in the country plus NB Terrence Anderson (25 T, 1 ½ TFL, INT) has seen plenty of playing time against the multiple sets in the Big 12 while senior safeties Ricky Price (54 T) and Quinton Moore (64 T, 4 ½ TFL, 2 S, INT, 2 FR) are big poppers in run support. By the numbers, the Cowboys allow 23.8 points on 377.3 yards per game.
Junior Zac Robinson (160 of 238 for 2481 yards, 21 TD, 7 INT) also has a couple of blue chip targets to throw to but also helps himself with some nifty running ability that has brought him to the end zone 6 times this season. Behind an experienced offensive line like this, the opportunities have been many. The unit of LT Okung, LG Lewis, C Washington, RG Denning, and RT Bond aren’t huge (average 6’5” and 293 pounds) but they have combined to make all 55 possible starts this season and have 144 total career starts under their belt. Starting 5’8” 190 sophomore RB Kendall Hunter (210 for 1434 yards and 14 TD) is a blazing big play ready to happen on every touch plus backups Keith Toston (91 for 632 and 9 TD) and Beau Johnson (58 for 357 and 3 TD) don’t do anything to hurt the average for a ground attack that piles up 261.3 yards per game at 5.7 yards per carry with 34 touchdowns. When bored of punching opponents in the face on the ground, Oklahoma State is more than capable of beating teams through the air with Makey Award Finalist 6’6” 255 senior TE Brandon Pettigrew (35 for 383 yards) and Biletnikoff Award Finalist 6’2” 215 sophomore WR Dez Bryant (68 for 1222 and 16 TD) who also averages 17.9 yards per punt return with a pair of trips to the house this year. Throw in a kick return for score by CB Perrish Cox (29.2 yards per) and 3 blocked kicks by the Cowboy defense and the special teams edge goes to the home team.
SELECTION: There will plenty of hype around this match up with the implications it holds for next week’s Conference Championship game as well as the Heisman Trophy and National Championship pictures. As much as we like what Mike Gundy has done in Stillwater, the Cowboys can only claim edges in very limited areas or certain one-on-one breakdowns. For 60 minutes, the Sooners just can’t be stopped. Take Oklahoma –7!
Platinum Plays
Florida @ Florida State
No team has been more impressive the last few weeks than Urban Meyer’s Florida Gators. Since dropping a home game to Mississippi (30-31) on September 27th, the Gators have reeled off seven straight decisive wins over the likes of Georgia, LSU, South Carolina and are poised to take on Alabama in the SEC Championship game on December 6th. If the Gators can defeat Florida State and Alabama, it would be hard pressed to keep them from playing in the BCS Championship game while the Big XII sorts out their little mess. The Gators are currently ranked 4th in the BCS and by winning out, they should secure a spot in the top two.
Meanwhile, there would be nothing more than Bobby Bowden and his Seminoles would love to do than to upset Florida’s chances in playing for the National Championship. The Seminole football program is on the upswing after being on the demise for the last couple years. However, they still have a ways to go before they are the feared college football power of a few years ago but, they seemed to have stemmed the tide and righted the ship as for getting back in the hunt for a national championship. Whenever Bobby Bowden decides to hang up his straw hat, Jimbo Fisher (offensive coordinator) will take over and the program shouldn’t miss a beat.
On paper, the Gators shouldn’t have too many problems getting a win over Florida State heading into the SEC Championship and head Coach Urban Meyer must keep his team from looking ahead to the game against Alabama. Inter-state rivalry games tend to bring out the best in the team perceived to be the weaker of the two and this rivalry is even more intense as Florida has replaced Florida State as the “Top Dog” in Florida college football. The Gators have a ton of weapons on offense starting with Heisman trophy winning quarter back, Tim Tebow, multi-talented WR Percy Harvin, a plethora of lightning quick running backs who can come in and rip off big yards in each attempt. However, it may be the defense which makes this Gator team stand out from others as they are ranked 3rd in the nation giving up an average of 12 pts/game. Other than the 31 points they gave up to Mississippi, the Gator defense has put the clamps on the rest of their opponents. Not to be outdone, the Gator offense is also ranked 3rd in the nation scoring at a rate of 46.5 pts/game. The Gators can dominate on either side of the ball which makes playing them doubly tough.
The Seminoles may have blown their chance to play for the ACC Championship when they lost at home (17-27) to Boston College, who will play for the title if they defeat Maryland at home this Saturday. Maybe it’s good for this Seminole team the return to success doesn’t come too quickly or too early and serve them better in the long run. Sophomore Christian Ponder had provided a stability at the quarterback position this team hasn’t seen in a few years and if he can improve with this gained experience, the Seminoles will be set for the next couple of years. RB Antone Smith leads the team with 14 touchdowns and a 4.7 rushing average. Florida State leads the ACC in scoring at 34.3 points/game and rank only in the middle of the pack of the ACC in defense giving up 18.5 pts/game. However, they are no where near as talented as the rival Gators and will have to come up with their best game of the season to keep this game close.
Fisher and Bowden will have to pull any and every trick in the book if the Seminoles have any chance to stay with the Gators and Urban Meyer is not afraid to run up the score against anyone. Last year, the Gators put a 45-17 thumping on the Seminoles and despite the Seminoles being improved, another final score like last years isn’t out of the questions. The posted total for this game is 57½ points and you can bet your bottom dollar this game is going over that number.
Wunderdog
Game: South Carolina at Clemson
Pick: UNDER 41
The Gamecocks are probably an offensive skill player and a QB away from being a great team. They rank 11th in the country on defense, despite getting blown out by Florida, who is doing that to everyone lately. They are allowing just 19 ppg, which is reduced to 15.6 ppg without the Florida game. Offensively they have had trouble moving the ball all season, and have produced 17 points or less in four of their games. The Clemson Tigers are almost a mirror image, they have a big defense, but have had trouble scoring themselves - again, QB issues. The Tigers are allowing just 15.1 ppg in their last 10, while the odffense has averaged just under 20 ppg in their last seven ACC games. This one should be a battle of field position, and few TD's.
Cajun Sports
Alabama Crimson Tide -14½ wins Iron Bowl vs. Auburn Tigers
This week we take a look at the Alabama/Auburn game which actually has significance 365 days a year to all Alabamians. Yes, the Iron Bowl is the most heated rivalry game in the country and we have learned this from firsthand experience. Alabamians literally allow this game’s outcome to determine how they feel for 365 days a year.
This season the game has national title implications for the first time in awhile and the Tide could actually keep the Tigers from becoming bowl eligible. It would take Alabama breaking a losing streak of six games for that to happen as Auburn has owned this series of late. The Crimson Tide has not won the Iron Bowl since 2001.
Nick Saban was primarily hired for this one game. The 'Bama faithful had taken all they could stand from the plains and they were willing to pay Saban whatever he wanted because they were convinced he was the person that could turn the Tide program around sooner rather than later. Well it appears they were right because in Saban’s second season the oddsmakers have posted Alabama as a 14½-point favorite, this on a team that has lost six in a row to their opponent.
Neither coach has to get their team motivated for this rivalry but the Tigers are certainly not the Tigers of the past six seasons. This is a much improved Tide team that Auburn will face this season compared to Alabama teams the last few years. Auburn’s offense ranks 99th in the nation while Alabama’s defense ranks third. In years past one would say that doesn’t matter because this is a rivalry game but the team with the 99th ranked offense has won the last six seasons and may not approach this contest with the same vigor as in years past.
This week our College Football System of the Week is active in the Iron Bowl and it tells us that from Game 8 on, play on an undefeated Saturday home team with 9+ days rest and not 14+ days rest before that vs. an opponent not off a conference underdog SU loss of 5+ points, going 15-0 ATS since 1992 and averages covering the spread by 10.6 points per game!
The Crimson Tide faithful get what they paid for as Coach “S” leads his team to the win and cover over the boys from the plains on Saturday and the Tiger faithful have to face the dreaded “L” for 365. Good luck with the Tide on Saturday and please have a safe and happy holiday!
Pick: Alabama -14½
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Missouri -16 vs Kansas
Alabama -14.5 vs Auburn
South Carolina +1 vs Clemson
Single Plays
NC State +1.5 vs Miami, FL
Cincinnati -22 vs Syracuse
USC -32 vs Notre Dame
Georgia Tech +7.5 vs Georgia
UAB +8.5 vs UCF
So. Mississippi -15 vs SMU
Baylor +21.5 vs Texas Tech
Arkansas St -20.5 vs UNT
Oklahoma -7 vs Oklahoma State
Wild Bill
Florida St +17 (5 units)
Texas Tech -20 (5 units)
Oklahoma St +7 (5 units)
Ga Tech +8 (5 units)
Auburn +14 (5 units)
Central Florida -9 1/2 (5 units)
Notre Dame +30 (5 units)
Washington St +29 (5 units)
Bettorsworld
2* Vanderbilt +4 over Wake Forest
On the year we are 3-1 when backing Vanderbilt. There were two other instances we considered backing them. One was last week against the Vols, which as it turns out, was a good thing we stayed away. The other was the Kentucky game, which we would have won. They are a team we have taken an interest in because of their style of play and because of their reputation over the years, not great, which still provides us with some line value when backing them. Ironically this week, they face one of our other favorite teams to back over the last few years, Wake Forest. Both of these teams are nothing fancy.
If ever there was a good spot to back Vandy, it's when they are facing a team with an equally inept offense. Both of these squads rank towards the bottom of all college football teams as far as total offense. In Vandy's case, they have scored 14 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. In that stretch they are also 2-5 straight up. Not too good. Wake Forest had it's own 5 game stretch where it wasn't putting points on the board and last week against BC it was the defense that kept them in it and almost pulled it out. So both teams have struggled offensively while each has also shown the ability to score some points. Anyone who watched Vandy beat Kentucky, at Kentucky, certainly didn't get the impression you were watching an offensively challenged team. There were also a couple of 3 and 4 point losses in that 2-5 stretch. Point being, even in the losing efforts, they kept it close.
Last week you'd have to assume, was a letdown week for Vandy. Having finally gotten the monkey off their backs and clinched a bowl birth for the first time in 25 years, they simply didn't show up to play. There was no sense of urgency. The team was flat. It's one thing to not show up for a game. It's yet another to lose a heartbreaker like Wake Forest did last week to BC. You also have to take into account that whatever happens from here on in for Wake, the season will have been a huge disappointment. This is a team that was best in the ACC early in the year and a team that's had some great years the last few years. On the flip side, no matter what happens from here on in, this year will have been a giant step forward for Vanderbilt. A good year no matter what the outcome this week and in their bowl game.
This game boils down to a "Bowl enhancement game". The winner will finish the year at 7-5 and will get a slightly better bowl game than the loser, plus a chance to finish the year 8-5 overall. (Wake may actually not go bowling with a loss here) We simply feel Vandy is the more likely of the two to accomplish that. This is their chance to finish. To come so far as a program this year, and not take advantage of this opportunity would be a shame. At the very least, expect one of their strongest efforts of the year Saturday Night.
Wake Forest is banged up big time at this point. Their offensive line is patched together which has resulted in this teams running game really struggling. With the way both teams have played offensively, and the way both defenses have stepped up to the plate, combined with all that's on the line for these two teams this week, we'd expect a nail biter of a game that's decided late in the 4th quarter. Getting +4 in this situation is too much to pass up. Both teams make the most of their opportunities. Wake Forest is #4 in the Nation in turnover margin but Vandy not far behind at #24. Not too shabby when we're talking about 119 football teams. As a result both teams often end up with decent field position which also explains their decent yards per point numbers.
Nelly
Kentucky + over Tennessee
The Volunteers had just 243 yards of offense last week but managed to win. It may be hard to replicate that fortune in Coach Fulmer’s send-off game. Last season Tennessee knocked off Kentucky to win the SEC East in a 52-50 game that endured four overtime sessions. Injuries have hit Kentucky hard this season but unlike the Vols the Wildcats will be in the postseason. The Wildcats have lost outright in 23 consecutive meetings so there will be plenty of motivation here and the Wildcats have had an extra week to prepare for this game. Tennessee has not had much success covering at home in recent years and after last week’s win it will be tough to get another positive effort. Look for Kentucky to breakthrough with a victory as last week’s win was misleading for Tennessee.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Auburn
A big battle in Alabama finds the Crimson Tide playing host to Auburn in the the annual battle for the Iron Bowl. The Tigers enter the contest at 5-6 on the season, needing a win today to become bowl eligible. Above all other things in this Iron Bowl showdown it’s most important to remember one thing – win or lose, the Tide will be squaring off against Florida for the SEC crown next week. A loss, however, would take them out of the running for the BCS title game. It’s not often you find a team laying two touchdowns against an opponent they’ve LOST SIX STRAIGHT GAMES against. Toss in Tommy Tuberville's outstanding 14-3 SU and ATS record with Auburn against undefeated SEC opponents and you can see where we're going here. Aubbie’s 4-0 ATS mark as a double-digit conference dog clinches it. Take the points in this upset special!
John Fisher
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Play:Virginia Tech -8
V. Tech owns most of the stats here and are playing for a win to earn a chance at ACC title. The Cavs have been owned by the Hokies over the last few years and seem to have reverted back to their horrible play from the beginning of the year. V. Tech will win and cover this game with Special Teams, Defense, and Motivation!! It also does not hurt that they are undefeated at home. Look for them to cover unless TO bug hits them again...see Duke last week. KEY STAT: Scoring Defense Home: V. Tech 10pts a game Away: Virgina 30pts a game V. Tech wins 24-10
DAVE MALINSKY
Georgia Tech @ Georgia
PICK: Georgia -7.5
We started the college football regular season by having a lot of success taking the S.E.C. against a vastly inferior A.C.C. when the right pairings were available, and what better way to spend a Saturday than by not only re-visiting that particular concept, but also using an annual series that has provided us meat to put between the bread many times?
Here is the gist of this one – Georgia has won seven straight against Georgia Tech, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process, and beating the pointspread by a combined 65.5 points over those games. How do the oddsmakers miss such a series by an average of 9.5 points per contest over such a span? Because basically we get the same layout each time – the previous two months Georgia Tech is taking on much inferior competition than Georgia, and it sets up perceptions that just do not match the true realities of the gap between these programs. It is the same again here, and with the marketplace helping to drop this one into our laps we can step in again.
The Yellow Jackets have adapted better to Paul Johnson’s offensive schemes than we thought that they would in his first season, but some of that has to be taken with a grain of salt – they were playing in a weak conference, and most opposing defenses were seeing these designs for the first time. Now they not only have to face a Georgia defense loaded with athleticism up front, but it is also a defense that has two full weeks to prepare for those tactics, including a chance to sit back and watch Tech on national television last Thursday night. That helps not just tactically, but the fact that the Yellow Jackets were blowing out Miami also fully alerts Mark Richt’s squad to the challenge that is at hand.
Not only does Georgia bring the defensive tools here, but that outstanding corps of skill players can make plays vs. a defense that has not seen anything near this class of offense all season. The emotions will run particularly high on the Bulldog sidelines, because we are being told that this will be QB Matthew Stafford’s last game between the hedges. Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and the rest of the cast can exploit a Tech defense that will be without key LB Sedric Griffin (their third leading tackler), and S Dominique Reese, and while the Jackets do hope to have Jahi Word-Daniels back in the secondary, he has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury, and his timing will be an issue.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(3) Oklahoma (10-1, 8-2 ATS) at (11) Oklahoma State (9-2, 8-2 ATS)
Oklahoma continues its quest for the Big 12 South title and a BCS championship game berth when it travels to Stillwater, Okla., for a meeting with Oklahoma State in the 103rd edition of the Bedlam Rivalry.
The Sooners made a big statement last week in destroying No. 2 Texas Tech 65-21 as a seven-point home favorite for their fifth consecutive victory and fourth straight spread-cover. Oklahoma took a 42-7 halftime lead into halftime and cruised from there, outgaining the Red Raiders 625-406 overall, including 299-45 on the ground, while the struggling Sooners defense stepped up and forced three turnovers and registered four sacks.
Oklahoma is 6-1 in conference play and enters tonight one-half game behind Texas (7-1) and tied with Texas Tech in the Big 12 North race. If the Sooners beat Oklahoma State and Texas Tech takes down Baylor today, there will be a three-way tie atop the division, and next week’s BCS standings will be used to determine the division winner and representative in next week’s Big 12 championship game.
The Cowboys are 2-2 SU and ATS since starting the season 7-0, with those two loses coming on the road at No. 1 Texas (28-24) and No. 3 Texas Tech (56-20). Oklahoma State rebounded from the Texas Tech debacle in its most recent game Nov. 15, besting Colorado 30-17, but coming up short as a 17-point road chalk. It was the Cowboys’ second straight non-cover after starting out 8-0 ATS.
The Sooners are riding a five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) in the Bedlam Rivalry, including last year’s 49-17 rout as a 13½-point home favorite. In its most recent trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma prevailed 27-21 as a five-point road chalk in 2006. Despite that result, the home team is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll in this series, with OU going 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Boone Pickens Stadium.
Oklahoma has scored at least 35 points in every game this season and at least 45 points in all five of its wins during its current winning streak, tallying 62, 66 and 65 the last three weeks alone. The Sooners lead the nation in scoring offense (52.6 points per game), rank third in total offense (556.6 yards per game) and third in passing offense (352.8 ypg). Bob Stoops’ squad also averages 203.8 rushing yards per game on the season, including 273.3 ypg (6.2 per carry) in the last three. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, a Heisman Trophy candidate, has thrown for 3,710 yards (68.2 percent completion rate) and 42 TDs against just six INTs.
Oklahoma State is putting up 41.6 points and 492.6 total yards per game, including 261 rushing yards per contest (5.7 yards per carry). Dual-threat QB Zac Robinson has completed 67.2 percent of his throws for 2,484 yards with 21 TDs and seven INTs, and he’s added 418 yards and six scores on the ground.
The Cowboys are perfect at home (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS), scoring at least 55 points in five of the victories and averaging 570.5 yards per game while surrendering 20.8 points and 343.8 yards per contest (126.8 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 4-0 SU and ATS in true road games, putting up 57 points and 591.5 yards per game, and giving up 23.5 points and 358.2 yards (92.8 rushing ypg).
In addition to its ongoing 4-0 ATS run (all of which has come in Big 12 play), Oklahoma is on ATS streaks of 5-0 on the road since last year, 5-2 against winning teams, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 7-1 following a 20-plus-point victory. The Cowboys are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight November outings, but otherwise they’re on ATS tears of 6-0 at home since last season, 5-1 versus winning teams, 5-2 in Big 12 play, 8-3 after a non-cover and 7-0 on field turf.
For the Sooners, the over is on streaks of 10-1 overall, 7-0 in conference and 5-0 versus winning teams. For Oklahoma State, the over is on stretches of 28-8 at home, 18-8 in November, 14-3 after a non-cover and 7-3 against winning teams. However, these teams have stayed under the total in the last two Bedlam matchups after going over in the previous four.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Maryland (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at (20) Boston College (8-3, 6-4 ATS)
The Eagles can play their way into the ACC championship game with a victory today as they host Maryland at Alumni Stadium in Boston.
With a victory, Boston College wins the Atlantic Division and earns a trip to the ACC title game, but the Eagles will have to do it with redshirt freshman QB Dominique Davis who is slated to start for injured Chris Crane, who had started every game this season but fractured his collar bone in the second quarter of B.C.’s 24-21 win over Wake Forest a week ago.
Davis stumbled against Wake last week, going 13-of-23 for 103 yards and he had two fumbles returned for TDs by the Demon Deacons. He did lead a nine-play, 70-yard drive in the final five minutes to make up for his two fumbles and keep the Eagles’ ACC title hopes alive.
Maryland comes in off a humiliating 37-3 home loss to Florida State, falling as a two-point ‘dog. The Terps have averaged just 11 points a game in their last three, losing two of those contests, and they produced just 252 yards of offense in the loss to the Seminoles.
Maryland QB Chris Turner threw for a career-high 337 yards and three TDs last year in the Terps 42-35 upset win over Boston College as seven-point home pups. In the last meeting at Boston College in 2006, the Eagles got a 38-16 win, easily covering as 7½-point favorites.
The Terps are on ATS skids of 1-4 on the road and 3-7 in November, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five after a straight-up loss. Boston College is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight ACC contests and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a straight-up win.
It’s been all unders lately for Maryland, including 6-1 overall, 5-0 in November, 8-0 on the road, 8-1 in ACC games, and 4-1 after a non-cover. For the Eagles, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-3 when they play on turf and 4-1 in ACC contests. In this series, the over has been the play each of the last three years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE
Virginia (5-6, 4-6 ATS) at Virginia Tech (7-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Cavaliers head to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the rival Hokies hoping to make themselves bowl eligible with a win and keep Virginia Tech out of the ACC championship game.
Virginia has lost three straight, including last week’s 13-3 home setback to Clemson as a 2½-point ‘dog. The Cavs are still looking for their sixth win to make themselves eligible for the postseason after getting win No. 5 back on Oct. 25. Virginia’s offense has been held below 20 points eight times this season, including scoring 10 or less in four outings. The Cavs are last in the ACC in scoring (16.3 points per game) and ninth in total offense (304.4 yards per game).
Virginia Tech got a 14-3 win over Duke a week ago, but failed to cover as a 14½-point home favorite. With a victory today, the Hokies can get to the conference title game despite having one of the worst offenses in college football, ranking 109th in total offense at 293 ypg. The defense, however, is eighth in the country, allowing 276.8 ypg and surrendering just two plays of 30 or more yards in its last three games.
Frank Beamer’s squad has dominated this rivalry, winning eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS), including a 33-31 road win last season, falling short as a 3½-point favorite. The Cavs haven’t won in Blacksburg since 1998, losing by at least 12 points in each of the last four trips to Lane Stadium (1-3 ATS).
Virginia is in ATS ruts of 7-16 on the road, 0-4 in November and 2-5 after a straight-up loss. The Hokies are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, but otherwise they are on positive ATS streaks of 26-10 in ACC games and 13-3 in November contests.
For the Cavs, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 22-8-3 in ACC games, 11-4 in November, 21-8-3 after a non-cover and 7-2 after a straight-up loss. The under has dominated Hokies games as well, going 12-2 at home, 6-2 in conference games, 9-3 in November and 6-1 against teams with a losing record. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Blacksburg.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kansas (6-5, 5-5 ATS) at (12) Missouri (9-2, 5-5 ATS)
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
Kansas and Missouri meet for the 117th time when the nation’s second-oldest rivalry kicks off at Arrowhead Stadium with not much riding on the outcome other than bragging rights.
Missouri clinched the Big 12 North Division two weeks ago with a 52-20 win over Iowa State (covering as a 26-point favorite) and Kansas’ 35-7 loss to Texas (as 14-point home ‘dogs). The Tigers will be back in Arrowhead next weekend in the Big 12 title game hoping to spoil the BCS hopes of Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech.
The Tigers have an explosive offense that ranks fourth in the nation in scoring at 45.7 ppg and fifth in total yards (512.3 ypg). They have won four straight (2-2 ATS) after dropping two in a row (SU and ATS) to then-No. 17 Oklahoma State and No. 1 Texas. QB Chase Daniel is the headliner for the Tigers, completing 76.9 percent of his throws for 3,592 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTs in his senior season.
The Jayhawks have lost four of their last five (2-3 ATS) and they were held to their lowest point total in three years in the 35-7 loss to Texas on Nov. 15. Kansas’ offense averages 32 points a game this season and QB Todd Reesing has been the catalyst, throwing for 3,198 yards, 24 TDs and 10 INTs. Reesing threw two picks against the Tigers last season but also had 349 yards and two TD passes.
Missouri leads the rivalry 54-53-9, and the Tigers have won the last two, including a 36-28 victory as a one-point ‘dog in 2007. The straight-up winner is 10-0 ATS in this rivalry dating back to 1998, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Although it has failed to cover in three of its last four games, Kansas brings in several positive ATS streaks, including 20-7 overall, 14-6 in Big 12 games, 4-1 after a week off and 9-4 against teams with a winning record. Missouri is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a bye week and 0-4 in its last four after a spread-cover, but the Tigers are on positive ATS streaks of 17-8 overall, 11-5 against teams with a winning record and 7-1 in neutral-site games.
For Kansas, the over is on runs of 10-3 in November, 15-6 on grass, 4-1 in conference games and 5-2 after a bye week. The Tigers have stayed under the number in three of their last four overall, six of eight against teams with a winning record and five straight after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(18) Georgia Tech (8-3, 7-2-1 ATS) at (13) Georgia (9-2, 3-7 ATS)
The Bulldogs will try to make it eight straight wins over in-state rival Georgia Tech when these two meet for the 103rd time, this year at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga.
Georgia was the preseason No. 1 team but lopsided losses to Alabama and Florida have knocked the Bulldogs out of the SEC title chase. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech waits for the outcome of the Virginia-Virginia Tech showdown to see if the Yellow Jackets will play in the ACC title game on Dec. 6 as Coastal Division champs. If Virginia Tech losses, Georgia Tech will compete for the league crown.
Georgia Tech pounded Miami, Fla., 41-23 back on Nov. 20, cashing as a three-point home favorite. The ‘Jackets’ triple-option offense produced 472 rushing yards against the Hurricanes, and they enter this game ranked fourth in the country in rushing offense (270.8 ypg). Jonathan Dwyer leads the team with 1,207 yards rushing (7 yards per carry) and 10 TDs.
Georgia has had trouble stopping teams, giving up 38 or more points in three straight games before beating Auburn 17-13 as a nine-point road favorite on Nov. 15. Despite that solid defensive effort, the Bulldogs have surrendered 23.8 points and 167.4 rushing yards per game in their last five contests.
The Bulldogs lead this rivalry 59-38-5, and they’ve taken 33 of the last 44 meetings. They are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven clashes with Georgia Tech, including last year’s 31-17 win as a four-point road chalk. The last time these two met in Athens, Georgia scored 15 second-half points to edge the Yellow Jackets 15-12 and push as a three-point favorite. The straight-up winner is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five.
Georgia Tech is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a bye week, but they are on ATS runs of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 on the road and 5-2-1 on grass. Georgia is on ATS slides of 1-6 overall, 0-4 at home and 1-4 against teams with a winning record, but the Bulldogs enjoy positive pointspread trends of 7-3-1 after a week off, 7-1-1 against ACC teams and 4-0 in non-conference games.
For the ‘Jackets, the under is on runs of 29-14-1 on grass, 5-1 after a bye week, 4-0 on the road and 6-0 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have gone over the total in 10 of 14 home games against teams with a winning road record and five of their last seven November contests. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals in Athens.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER
Auburn (5-6, 2-8 ATS) at (1) Alabama (11-0, 8-3 ATS)
Alabama will try to end a six-year losing streak to archrival Auburn and hold on to its No. 1 ranking when the schools meet in the 73rd Iron Bowl, this year in Tuscaloosa.
The Crimson Tide, who have already locked up the SEC West title and a berth in next week’s league title game against Florida, have been idle since Nov. 15, when they kept their perfect season alive with a 32-7 home rout of Mississippi State. Alabama easily cashed as a 20½-point home favorite for its fourth consecutive spread-cover. In the win, the Tide finished with a decided edge in total offense (364-167), the third time in the past four games that they outgained an opponent by more than 190 yards.
Auburn enters this showdown having lost five straight games to Division I-A opponents, including a 17-13 home loss to Georgia in its most recent contest on Nov. 18. On the bright side, the Tigers covered as a nine-point ‘dog, halting an 0-8 ATS drought. Tommy Tuberville’s team needs an upset win here to get bowl-eligible and avoid its first losing season since Tuberville arrived at Auburn in 1999.
The Tigers topped Alabama 17-10 a year ago, barely covering as a six-point home favorite. Although the Tigers have won the last six meetings (4-2 ATS), including four straight wins in Tuscaloosa, none of the contests has been decided by more than 10 points. Also, the visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 Iron Bowls.
Both teams field strong defenses, with ‘Bama surrendering 12.5 points and 255.6 yards per game (75.1 rushing ypg), while Auburn yields 16.4 points and 309.2 yards per effort (130.3 rushing ypg). However, the Crimson Tide (31.7 points, 367 yards per game) have big advantage over the Tigers (18.9 points, 314.3 yards per game) on offense. In fact, Auburn has scored 14 points or less in half of its games this year, while Alabama has scored at least 24 points nine times, including the last five games in a row.
As part of its ongoing 1-8 ATS nosedive, Auburn is in pointspread slumps of 1-6 in SEC play, 0-4 this season on the road, 1-4 versus winning teams and 1-5 when playing on grass. However, the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road underdog versus ranked opponents. Alabama is 5-2 in its last seven SEC games, but 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus losing squads, 8-20-2 ATS in its last 30 in Tuscaloosa (3-3 this season), 0-4 ATS in its last four following a bye week and 5-17 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite.
For Auburn, the under is on stretches of 9-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 in SEC action, 4-1 in November, 15-7 after a SU defeat and 7-1 after an ATS setback. Alabama’s “under” tears include 5-1 overall (4-1 in the SEC), 4-0 at home, 5-1 on grass and 5-1 in November. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine Iron Bowls overall, with the last four in Tuscaloosa all staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and UNDER
(2) Florida (10-1, 9-1 ATS) at (23) Florida State (8-3, 5-4 ATS)
Florida continues its march to the SEC championship game and a possible spot in the BCS title game when it battles in-state rival Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.
The Gators stepped out of conference last week and obliterated The Citadel 70-19 in a non-lined game. Florida has won seven in a row since a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, going 6-0 ATS in lined games. Also, Florida is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year.
Florida State bounced back from a 10-point upset loss at home to Boston College with last Saturday’s dominating 37-3 win at Maryland as a two-point road favorite. The Seminoles outgained an opponent for the seventh time in the last eight games, finishing with a 332-252 edge in total offense versus the Terps. Bobby Bowden’s troops, who haven’t lost consecutive games all season, have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games, going 3-1-1 ATS during this run.
Florida hammered the ‘Noles 45-12 last year as a 14-point favorite, the team’s fourth straight win in this rivalry, all of which have come by at least seven points. As far as this series goes, the host is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 (3-0 last three), the favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 and the SU winner has covered in nine of the past 10 clashes. Lastly, Florida has come up short against the number in five of its last six trips to Tallahassee.
The Gators have scored at least 42 points in six straight games and they’re averaging 46.5 points and 444.6 total yards (229.8 rushing) per game. Defensively, Urban Meyer’s squad gives up only 12.8 points and 278.7 total yards per game. Meanwhile, Florida State is putting up 34.3 points and 377.2 total yards per contest (186.8 rushing) and surrendering 18.5 points and 272 yards per game.
The Gators have covered the spread in seven consecutive road games and are on additional ATS runs of 18-6 overall, 7-0 in November, 5-0 as a road favorite, 13-3 against winning teams, 10-3 in non-conference play and 16-5 on grass. Florida State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight non-league games, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games on grass and 2-0 ATS as a home ‘dog the last seven years. However, the Seminoles are 0-6 ATS the last six times they’re coming off a win of 20 points or more.
The last four Florida-Florida State battles have stayed under the total, and the last six meetings in Tallahassee have stayed low. Additionally, the under is on runs of 19-8 for Florida State in November, 5-1 for Florida State against the SEC and 6-0 for Florida against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER