(17) Oregon (8-3, 5-6 ATS) at (19) Oregon State (8-3 SU and ATS)
The only thing standing the way of Oregon State and its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1964 is hated rival Oregon, which has dropped the last two Civil War meetings in painful fashion.
The Beavers eked out a 38-31 double-overtime win at Oregon as a one-point road underdog last December, one year after beating the Ducks 30-28 at home but failing to cover as a 3½-point home favorite. The Beavers’ win last year ended a 10-0 stretch by the home team in this rivalry, yet the host is still on an 8-3 ATS roll in the Civil War, which is being played for the 112th time today.
Oregon State kept its Pac-10 title hopes alive with last Saturday’s miraculous 19-17 victory at Arizona as a 3½-point road underdog. The Beavers converted a long pass play with 30 seconds left on the clock to put Justin Kahut – who had previously missed a chip-shot extra point that would’ve ensured overtime – in position for a game-winning field goal. OSU outgained Arizona 390-297.
The Ducks, who have had two weeks to prep for this one, also are coming off a win against Arizona, having outscored the Wildcats 55-45 as a six-point home favorite two weeks ago. Oregon rolled up 504 yards in the win, but gave up 527. Mike Bellotti’s team has won two in a row and four of its last five, averaging 41.3 points in the victories. In fact, the Ducks have scored at least 31 points in all eight wins, but they’re averaging only 19.3 ppg in their three defeats.
Oregon State, which opened the season with a 36-28 Pac-10 road loss to Stanford, has since won seven straight league games (6-1 ATS) and is a half-game behind USC in the league standings. However, the Beavers, who haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since the 1964 season, control their own destiny in the conference race based on their stunning 27-21 home win over the then-No. 1 Trojans back on Sept. 5.
Oregon is averaging 39.8 points and 458.5 total yards per game (268.1 rushing ypg), compared with the Beavers’ per-game averages of 32.4 points and 414.3 total yards per outing (172 rushing ypg). However, Oregon State (21.4 ppg, 289.4 total ypg allowed) rates a significant defensive edge over the Ducks (27.1 points, 375.7 total ypg allowed).
The Ducks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on artificial turf, but otherwise are in ATS ruts of 0-2 as an underdog, 1-4 in November, 1-5 against winning teams, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 1-4 in their last four trips to Corvallis (0-5 SU). Conversely, Oregon State sports positive ATS runs of 15-4 overall, 39-19-1 at home, 13-4 on turf, 12-2 in Pac-10 play, 11-1 after a SU win, 5-0 in November, 7-2 in home finales (9-1 SU), 15-4 following a bye and 4-0 against teams with a winning record.
The over has hit in each of the six Civil War matchups and is 4-1 the last five times the teams have clashed at Oregon State. Additionally, the Ducks are riding over streaks of 6-2-2 overall, 5-1-1 on turf and 5-2-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and OVER
South Carolina (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at Clemson (6-5, 3-6 ATS)
One year after watching Clemson nail a game-winning field goal as time expired to keep them from going to a bowl game, the Gamecocks get a chance to turn the tables on the Tigers as these teams clash in the annual battle for South Carolina bragging rights.
Clemson drilled a 35-yard field goal at the buzzer last year to get past South Carolina 23-21 and end the Gamecocks’ season on the spot. South Carolina did cover as a three-point home underdog, its second straight ATS win in this rivalry after Clemson had covered each of the previous five meetings. The Tigers are 5-1 SU in the last six battles between these schools.
The last three meetings in this rivalry have gone to the road team, and all three were decided by a total of nine points.
Clemson is finishing an otherwise disappointing season strong, taking three of their last four games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 13-3 win at Virginia as a 2½-point road favorite to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Tigers, who hammered Duke 31-7 two weeks ago, have held nine of its last 10 foes to three touchdowns or fewer. Also, their 3-1 ATS run comes after they failed to cover in their first five lined contests this season.
South Carolina has been licking its wounds the last two weeks after getting destroyed 56-6 at Florida as a 21-point road underdog on Nov. 15. The Gamecocks, who had held their first 10 opponents to 24 points or fewer, trailed 28-3 at halftime and got outgained by an eye-popping 519-173 margin, including 346-53 in rushing.
The Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, while Clemson has been a disaster at the window recently, including 3-9 ATS overall, 1-6 ATS at home, 0-5 ATS against the SEC, 1-7 ATS against winning teams and 2-7 ATS on grass.
The over is 4-0-1 in South Carolina’s last five road games and 6-2 in its last eight in November. However, the Gamecocks are still on under steaks of 5-0 in non-conference play and 5-1 against the ACC. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for Clemson, including 10-2 overall, 7-0 at home, 8-1 on grass, 4-0 in the SEC and 13-5 in non-conference play. Finally, three of the last four in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Notre Dame (6-5 SU and ATS) at (5) USC (9-1, 5-4-1 ATS)
Embattled Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis may walk the Irish sidelines for the final time today at the L.A. Coliseum as he guides the Irish against fifth-ranked USC, which is still holding out hope for a berth in the BCS championship game.
Notre Dame is coming off an embarrassing 24-23 home loss to two-win Syracuse, failing as a 19½-point favorite. Syracuse scored the winning touchdown with 42 seconds left, but the Irish had one last chance to tie it, only to see a 53-yard field-goal attempt fall short. Notre Dame has outgained each of its last eight opponents, but is only 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in its last six games.
USC, which took last week off, ran its winning streak to seven in a row with a 45-23 triumph at Stanford on Nov. 15, though the Trojans gave up an 18-yard touchdown pass on fourth down as time expired, costing them a spread-cover as a 24-point road favorite. USC busted open a game that was tied 17-17 at halftime, scoring 28 unanswered points before giving up the meaningless touchdown on the final play.
USC piled up a 462-165 total yardage edge in blanking the Irish 38-0 as a 16½-point road chalk last season, its largest margin of victory in 79 meetings with Notre Dame and its sixth consecutive win (5-1 ATS) in this series. The Trojans have scored between 34 and 45 points in all six victories, five of which have come by margins of 31, 31, 20 and 38 points. Additionally, in this storied rivalry, the favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run and Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.
The Trojans continue to field one of the stingiest defenses in the country, allowing just 8.3 points, 222.5 total yards, 132.3 passing yards and 90.2 rushing yards per game, figures that rank first, second, first and fifth in the nation. Offensively, USC puts up 38.4 points and 450.7 total yards per game, including 209.5 rushing ypg.
Notre Dame has put up at least 23 points in seven of its last eight games and is averaging 24.5 ppg and 367.9 total ypg. However, defensively, the Irish are surrendering nearly 20 points and 316.5 total yards per outing (139.7 rushing ypg).
The Irish are on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 4-1 both off a SU and an ATS loss. USC is on pointspread runs of 30-14 at home, 12-5 against winning teams, 21-6 in non-conference play, 20-6 in November and 7-2 following a bye week.
The under is on streaks of 10-1 for Notre Dame on the road, 4-1 for Notre Dame against the Pac-10 and 4-1-1 for Notre Dame in November. Meanwhile, USC carries “under” runs of 20-8-1 overall, 15-3-1 at the L.A. Coliseum, 20-6-1 on grass and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. However, the over is 3-1 in the last four Irish-Trojans tussles in L.A.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
Jeff Benton
For Saturday’s free play in College Football, we’ll go back our bread-and-butter and support Florida minus the big chalk against Florida State.
After successfully backing Florida five straight times, I made the mistake of going against the Gators in their last lined game against South Carolina, taking the 21 points with the Gamecocks … and I paid dearly, as Florida rolled to a 56-6 victory, scoring 28 points in each half against a team that hadn’t given up 24 points in any GAME all season.
Throwing out last week’s ridiculous 70-19 win over the Citadel, Florida has averaged – averaged – 49.8 points in six straight wins against SEC opponents. Not only that, but the Gators’ defense has given up a grand total of 63 points during those six wins. That’s right: Florida has outscored its last six Division I-A opponents – all SEC teams – by a combined 299-63! Not only that, but the Gators had a yardage edge of at least 118 yards in five of those six wins.
Today, Florida faces a decent eight-win Florida State squad that has scored 26 points or more in nine of its 11 games. However, the two exceptions came against two strong defenses in Wake Forest (3 points) and Boston College (17) … and with all due respect to the Demon Deacons and Eagles, neither of those teams play defense like Florida does! And when you consider that Florida went through the SEC gauntlet while the ‘Noles played in the weak ACC, well, Florida’s 10-1 record looks even more impressive when stacked up against FSU’s 8-3 mark.
Florida is 9-1 ATS this year, covering in all nine Division I-A victories, and the Gators have cashed in seven straight road games (5-0 as a road favorite). They’ve also defeated Florida State four straight times, going 3-1 ATS (the only non-cover was by a half-point). Bottom line: I know we’re paying a Gators tax here because of their incredible run, but since no team has come within 30 of Florida over the past two months, I see no reason not to pay it. Lay the points.
5♦ FLORIDA GATORS
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the Beavers in Corvallis.
Oregon State is probably going to be shorthanded with the injuries to Jacquizz Rodgers who is doubtful and Lyle Moevao who is questionable but at home this price is still cheap enough for me.
Oregon is definitely a quality team and a squad that will come with in guns ablazing in this the Civil War but with the Rose Bowl on the line and being at home I just don't think Mike Riley's squad is going to blow it here at the last minute.
The Beavers have had an amazing season and it was not that way early on after losing in Stanford and then getting blown out at Penn State by a billion in embarassing fashion. But then the unreal shocking win against USC and things just did a complete 180 as the team became as confident as any. The next game was a gutty easy cover and very late loss in Utah against the undefeated Utes and ever since the Beavs have been rolling whether at home or on the road. Today OSU completely controls their own destiny as they will be in the Rose Bowl and have a rematch with Penn State with a win today and to lay a bare bones 3 points against a good, but not great, Oregon group is cheap enough for sure.
The crowd is going to be insane tonight at home and even if Moevao can't go Sean Canfield is experienced and will be fine. Throw in a stud in Sammie Stroughter along with the blossoming James Rodgers and in the end the Beavers should win this rivalry game and get to that the Holy Grail in Pasadena.
This is going to be a great game where emotions will run high and in the end I see the Beavs winning by a touchdown!
Jake Timlin
Saturday's selection is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
In a rivalry game dominated by the Bulldogs over the years I look for a change of events as Georgia Tech makes a game of it today. After all given that the Yellow Jackets will be way more focused to snap their slide against the Bulldogs mixed in with the Yellow Jackets ability to keep things close with their perfect option. Meanwhile, for the Yellow Jackets coach Johnson he knows a few things about covering as a pup on the road as over the years his teams have gone 13-3 ATS when catching road points. Well thanks to taking this game a bit more serious take Georgia Tech plus the points as they just might win outright.
All Georgia Tech!
Tony Weston
The Trojans still have an outside shot at playing for a national championship or the Rose Bowl, but will need to beat up on Notre Dame pretty bad to make any kind of case for playing in a BCS game.
The Trojans will do so tonight as they destroy the pathetic Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame comes into this game 6-5 SU and ATS this season, but it is only 1-3 SU and ATS its last four games, including last week’s upset loss at the hands of Syracuse. In that game the Irish were installed as 19 1/2 point favorites and lost outright 24-23 at home.
Now the Irish hit the road to play at the Los Angeles Coliseum, where they have not won since 2000, before USC’s dynastic run.
Over their last six meetings the Trojans have gone a perfect 6-0 SU against Notre Dame and have gone 5-1 ATS. In that stretch USC has beaten the Irish by an average of 25.6 points per game, including last year’s 38-0 blanking of the Irish in South Bend, Indiana.
USC will beat up the Irish one more time and get an easy win. Take the Trojans at home tonight.
3♦ USC
Bobby Maxwell
Vanderbilt at WAKE FOREST -4
Big Saturday of college football on the board today and we're giving you a FREE winner with the Demon Deacons as Wake Forest hosts Vanderbilt.
Big things were expected from Wake Forest when this season started but it just hasn't come together for the Demon Deacons like they'd hoped. But for Vanderbilt, they looked outstanding early but have just collapsed in the last six weeks.
We'll play the Demon Deacons in this one as their defense should control this one from start to finish. Vanderbilt has dropped five of six games and haven't scored more than 14 points in any of those five losses. Last week the Commodores fell to Tennessee 20-10 as a three-point home favorite against a team that was in complete disarray.
Wake's defense is only allowing 19 points a game and barely more than 300 yards per contest. The defense had two fumble returns for scores last week and at home they have cashed in seven of their last 10 games.
The Demon Deacons are on ATS runs of 16-7 against teams with a winning record and 10-3-2 at home against teams with a winning road record. They take care of business at home and will do so against a Vandy team that looks like its packed up for the season. Play Wake Forest.
3♦ WAKE FOREST
Auburn +14' at ALABAMA
While we don't think Auburn will be able to rise up and pull off the ultimate upset in this rivalry game, but this is way too many points to give the Tigers in this heated series. Grab the points, play Auburn and enjoy the cash when this thing is done.
Auburn has been a disaster this season, but there's one thing you can count on is them hanging tough with Alabama. The Tigers have won the last six in this series and gotten the cash in four of the last six. Last time they went to Alabama's house, the Tigers got a 22-15 win as a two-point favorite. The visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 Iron Bowls and Auburn will control the clock and make it another winner today.
The Tigers were right with Georgia in its most recent game on Nov. 18, cashing as a nine-point underdog. Now they've had almost two weeks to get ready for this one and you know coach Tommy Tuberville will pull something off here.
Alabama has the SEC title game on tap next weekend and might be taking this one a little lightly. They're looking at Florida next week and need to keep focus on Auburn. The Tigers can always play defense and they've only allowed 16.4 points per game this season.
Get as many points as you can get and play Auburn. They might not win outright but this is always a close game and will be decided by about a touchdown. Play the Tigers.
2♦ AUBURN
Sports Gambling Hotline
Georgia Tech +8 at GEORGIA
Plenty of supporting numbers on the Yellow Jackets in this annual battle, but we also truly believe Tech is capable of winning this game outright between the hedges.
Georgia owns a 7 game winning streak in this series, but that is where the positives for the Bulldogs stop.
The road team in this series is on a 4-0-1 spread run the last 5 years, and on an 8-1-1 overall run the last 10 series meetings!
Georgia Tech comes into this one having gotten the cash in 3 of their last 4 away games, and the Techsters have covered in 2 of 3 this season when getting points.
Georgia is on a slide of 0-3 their last 3 on-line, and 1-6 their last 7 games against the spread.
Paul Johnson was specifically brought in to Georgia Tech to beat UGA, and we believe this Tech option-attack is going to give the Bulldogs fits in this one.
Take the Yellow Jackets plus the very generous impost in this one.
Play on Tech.
5♦ GEORGIA TECH
Karl Garrett
Florida -16 at FLORIDA STATE
Today, another heavy chalk will cover, as Florida rolls Florida State for a 5th straight time.
The Gators have won the last 4 series showdowns by a 30-12 average, and last year's 45-12 defeat was the worst for State since 1983 when UF ripped them 53-14.
Florida has goals of playing in the BCS Championship Game, so I highly doubt Urban Meyer will let his foot off the gas when the Gators get up in this one.
True, Florida State has been playing much better, but the Sems are still just 9-15 against the spread their last 24 at home.
Florida has outscored their last 7 foes by a 369-82 margin, and the Gators are on a 6-game cover run, and have covered 9 of their last 10 lined games.
It won't take long for the rout to be on.
Lay the lumber with Florida in this one.
2♦ FLORIDA
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Boston College -6.5
B.C. has caught fire and I like the Eagles at home against a Maryland team which has struggled on the road all season long. Maryland is just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season and is coming off a deflating home blowout loss to FSU while the Eagles have won 3 in a row. The story of this game will be Boston College 's defense, which is only allowing 12.7 ppg at home this season and is among the best in the country at forcing turnovers. Maryland is 4-17 ATS in road games against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992. We'll lay the number.
John Fina
Selection: Georgia -8.5
Reason: Put us down on Georgia -8.5 for our Free College Football Selection on Saturday. Today Georgia Tech will be on the road as they take on Georgia. We will side with Georgia minus the points! Last week, George Tech defeated Miami Florida by at an excellent 41-23. The Hurricanes were literally unable to stop them, getting trampled by the Yellow Jackets at 472 yards on the ground. Georgia Tech is elated with that huge victory and plans on another upset against the Bulldogs by way of their potent running game. However the Yellow Jackets are in for a big surprise. The Bulldogs haven’t played at home in more than a month and will be ecstatic to be back at Stanford Stadium. Their last home game in Athens was on October 18th when they defeated Vanderbilt. After that, they traveled to LSU, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. The Bulldogs come into this week after a bye, and will have had the extra rest needed to be able to focus all of their energy on the Yellow Jackets. The Georgia Dawgs have won over Georgia Tech in seven consecutive games and have defeated them 14 times in their last 17 face-offs; going 12-4-1 against the spread. Outside of the conference, the Georgia Dawgs have played great as well. They haven’t had a single non-SEC home loss in exactly 8 years and that defeat came by the Yellow Jackets who shocked everyone taking away a 27-15 win. For Georgia, that home loss was the exception rather than the rule as they have since had 22 consecutive wins at home against non-conference teams. These victories came by an average of 22.4 ppg. The outlook isn’t so good for the Yellow Jackets, since when this team is competing against an opponent that is coming off at least 2 SU wins, they have a bad 8-25-1 SU record and 11-23 ATS. Bulldogs’ coach Mark Richt views this game as the biggest of the season and has made the extra preparations as such. According to Richt "This game is about the rivalry, it’s one of the oldest rivalries in the country. It's for the championship of the State of Georgia which is motivation enough.” Lay the points with the much superior team! Take Georgia -8.5!
K & B Sports
Cincinnati, in first place of the Big East Conference (results thru 11/22), is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games. Syracuse got a win SU and ATS in its last game, but is 1-2 SU and ATS in its last three games. Cincinnati played a dominating game on offense in its last regular season game against Syracuse and got the win 52-35.Play CINCINNATI
Jim Feist
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL / FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Take: FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Reason: Florida International (4-6) enters just its sixth season of football and is 3-3 in the Sun Belt. They blew their shot at avoiding a losing season in Saturday's 31-27 home loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Florida International is 4-26 SU, 13-17 ATS its last 30 as a dog. Florida Atlantic (5-6 SU/6-5 ATS) had a tough start under Head Coach Howard Schnellenberger, but they are playing great, winning 4 in a row (two on the road) before losing 28-14 at Arkansas State Saturday. Junior QB Rusty Smith (17 TDs, 13 picks) leads an offense that has scored 24, 29, 46, 40 and 14 the last five games. A year ago FA won 55-23 as an 11-point favorite, and should avoid a losing season here. Play Florida Atlantic.
Dave Cokin
Kentucky @ Tennessee
Play: Kentucky +3'
Lane Kiffin has been named as Tennessee's new coach. That's exciting news for the '09 Vols but I have to think it's a distraction for the team that's wrapping up a miserable season on Saturday. Tennessee managed to salvage a little pride last week by beating Vandy, I'm not sure about their intensity level here. Add in Kentucky seeking revenge for a crazy 52-50, 4OT loss to the Vols last season and I'm sold on going for the underdog Wildcats in this contest. Kentucky is the choice.
Tom Freese
Tulsa at Marshall
Tulsa is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games and they are 7-0 ATS in games on turf. The Golden Hurricane is 13-6 ATS off an ATS win and they are 5-1 ATS after rushing for more than 200 yards in their last game. Marshall is 3-8 ATS their last 11 games and they are 1-8 ATS their last 9 games overall. The Thundering Herd are 1-6 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 0-4 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. PLAY ON TULSA -
Great Lakes Sports
Auburn vs Alabama
Play on:Alabama
The Alabama Crimson Tide has a very solid 8-3 ATS record this year, and they are 6-3 ATS as a favorite this year. The Crimson Tide is also a very nice 3-0 ATS this November this year, and they are 7-2 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins this year. We look for the Alabama Crimson Tide to roll over the Auburn Tiger for the ATS win & cover tonight.