Tony Mathew
Baylor vs. Texas Tech
Selection: Texas Tech -22
Oklahoma pounded Texas Tech last week with an upset win totaling 65-21. This week, we’ll see the Red Raiders easily rebound against the Baylor Bears. Against Baylor, Texas Tech is 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS and they are seamless coming off a SU loss are 10-0 against the spread.
The Red Raider situation falls into a proven system that has been tested in College football for over 25 years. The system is like this: when home favorites are priced at a minimum of -20, they are 53-26 against the spread for 67% under one condition; the team must have lost SU by at least 20 points in their last game, and the competition cannot be coming off an upset of at least 23 points. The system gets even more profitable if the home favorite loses the line by a minimum of 11 points in their last matchup, jumping to 49-19 against the spread at 71%. This week’s Red Raider scenario falls into the latter ,making this a great value.
The Bears do not do well on the road. When Baylor goes up against a team that is coming off both a SU loss as well as an ATS loss, the Bears are terrible at 2-16 straight up and 3-15 against the spread on the road. This includes a grave 0-14 straight up and 1-13 against the spread as an underdog of at least +9 which is what we have here.
Coming off a SU loss at home, Texas Tech proves to be one of the best teams in college football with a record of 31-4 SU and 22-7 ATS. Things are even better when the Red Raiders face an opponent that is coming off a 14-1 straight up win and 11-3 against the spread as Baylor is now. Coach Mike Leach and Texas Tech will be intent on erasing last week’s shattering defeat by replacing those memories with an big win against Baylor.
Take Texas Tech -22!
Cajun-Sports
2 STAR SELECTION
TEXAS TECH -21 1/2 over Baylor
Fresh off a humiliating defeat, the 7th-ranked Red Raiders get right back on the horse Saturday afternoon as they host the Bears in Big 12 Conference play.
This will be it for Baylor, which owns a 4-7 record overall. The Bears carried a four- game skid into a November 15th clash with Texas A&M, but got the 41-21 victory.
Texas Tech controlled its own fate for a trip to the Big 12 title game and a possible national championship appearance, but they were completely dismantled at Oklahoma last week in a 65-21 final. Now, the Red Raiders are tied with the Sooners and Texas Longhorns atop the Big 12 South standings. If Tech and Oklahoma win on Saturday, the BCS rankings would determine the division's representative in the league championship tilt. The best chance for the Red Raiders to advance to the conference championship game is to beat the Bears and root for Oklahoma State to upset the Sooners Saturday night.
While wins have been hard to come by for Baylor this season, the future does look bright in Waco, largely because of the presence of freshman quarterback Robert Griffin. The rookie has been sensational, helping the Bears average 28 ppg and just over 380 total ypg this season. Opponents are scoring nearly 29 ppg and gaining almost 400 total ypg against Baylor. The Bears defense will now have its hands full with an angry bunch of Red Raiders
Heading into the Oklahoma game, Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell and his favorite target, Michael Crabtree, were considered leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy, but may have seen those hopes go down the drain with last week’s debacle at Oklahoma. Through 11 games, the Red Raiders are averaging over 45 ppg on the strength of more than 550 total ypg. Harrell has connected on an amazing 71% of his passes for over 4,400 yards and 39 TDs against just 6 INTs.
The Texas Tech defense was humiliated last week by the Sooners. On the season, opponents are averaging 26 ppg against the Red Raiders, which is yielding 376 total ypg. The Red Raiders have been solid against the run all season, and while they have yielded plenty of yardage through the air, they do have more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed.
Off such a great effort against Texas A&M, Baylor will have a hard time matching it.
"Our guys really put forth a great effort on both sides of the ball. I really felt (it was) our most complete game of the year." — Baylor coach Art Briles on last week's Senior Day win over Texas A&M.
Here is where we can play AGAINST a team off its peak performance of the season. Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the Super Bowl”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall.
In looking at some numbers, we find the Bears are 0-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a conference underdog of more than 12 points off a SU win, and 0-15 SU (-32.3 ppg) & 0-15 ATS (-14.7 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 8 points vs. opponents off a SU loss of 7+ points.
Meanwhile, with Texas Tech we will:
Play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance.
A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out.
The Red Raiders are actually in a strong spot here for a big performance, as they are:
6-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) from Game 5 on off their first SU loss of the season;
16-0-1 ATS (16.8 ppg) in their final home game and not playing Oklahoma;
11-0 ATS (17.1 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. Baylor and not off a conference SU & ATS win.
Our SportsDataBase research also shows that home/neutral site teams in the final game of the regular season and off their first SU loss of the season are 3-0 SU (+30.3 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+21.8 ppg) since at least 1980.
An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows that home favorites with 0 or 1 losses on the season have been strong coming off a poor showing and facing opponents off a win. The Red Raiders qualify for this POWER SYSTEM that states:
In its Final Game, play ON a Saturday home favorite with less than 2 season SU losses off an ATS loss in its last game and not a conference home ATS loss of more than 7 points before that vs. an opponent off a SU win.
Since the mid-1980s, these teams have closed out the regular season by going 17-0 SU (+22.7 ppg) & 17-0 ATS (+13.3 ppg).
Penn State was the most recent qualifier when they hosted Michigan State last weekend. The Nittany Lions, favored by 16 points against a quality Spartans team, jumped on Michigan State early and cruised to a 49-18 victory and 15-point spread cover.
Now, it’s the Red Raiders turn to rebound. We expect a huge showing from their offense, as they look to get the bad taste of last week’s game out their mouths and set themselves up for a possible Big 12 Championship Game should the Sooners stumble against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Bears will be hard-pressed to mount much of a comeback when they fall behind big and can’t run a balanced offense, which should lead to a blowout loss for the visitors.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS TECH 56 BAYLOR 17
Dennis Macklin
Miami (Ohio) at Xavier
Prediction: Xavier
The Musketeers are loaded again this year. After their Great Eight March Madness run of last year, Xavier is 5-0 and off a Holiday Tournament win that included victories over Missouri, Virginia Tech, and Memphis. That's a pretty good run in test games all decide by five or less. The Red Hawks are 2-2 with wins over a couple of muffins and cannon fodder losses to Pitt and UCLA. This is hotly contested regional rivalry in the Cincinnati area but the visitors just don't have the horses here. Xavier are wizards on defense and it will show here. Xavier by 15
Jimmy The Moose
Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders
Prediction: Ottawa Senators
The Senators have been a team in disary since last December but they have too much talent up front to continue to lose to team's like the Islanders. Ottawa comes into this one having won their last 2 games. New York is a young team that is in the middle of a rebuilding phase. The Islanders played on Friday and expect a tired team tonight. The Islanders have beaten the Senators twice this year but look for Ottawa to get some revenge tonight with a big win. The Senators are 16-4-3 in their last 23 meetings to Long Island. Play on the Ottawa Senators -.
Marc Lawrence
Auburn at Alabama
Prediction: Auburn
A big battle in Alabama finds the Crimson Tide playing host to Auburn in the the annual battle for the Iron Bowl. The Tigers enter the contest at 5-6 on the season, needing a win today to become bowl eligible. Above all other things in this Iron Bowl showdown it’s most important to remember one thing – win or lose, the Tide will be squaring off against Florida for the SEC crown next week. A loss, however, would take them out of the running for the BCS title game. It’s not often you find a team laying two touchdowns against an opponent they’ve LOST SIX STRAIGHT GAMES against. Toss in Tommy Tuberville's outstanding 14-3 SU and ATS record with Auburn against undefeated SEC opponents and you can see where we're going here. Aubbie’s 4-0 ATS mark as a double-digit conference dog clinches it. Take the points in this upset special!
Larry Ness
Florida St. vs Florida
No one expected Tebow to match his terrific numbers from last year (3,286 yards passing with 32 TDs / 895 yards rushing with 23 TDs) but after a slow start (and Florida's 31-30 loss at home to Ole Miss), Tebow has been just terrific, as have the Gators. Tebow has led Florida to seven straight wins, as the Gators have outscored their opposition by the combined scores of 369-82. The streak includes a 51-21 win over LSU (last year's national champs) and 49-10 over Georgia (the nation's preseason No. 1 team) but also last Saturday's 70-19 win over The Citadel. Tebow had an early afternoon (was in for just five plays in the second quarter before turning things over to Brantley) but completed 9 of 11 passes for 201 yards and three TDs. Florida scored TDs on its first seven possessions, racked up 512 yards in the first half alone and became the first SEC team to score at least 42 points in six consecutive games. Florida is guaranteed a spot in the SEC title game, where the Gators will meet current No. 1, Alabama. If Alabama can beat Auburn and Florida beats FSU, the winner of the SEC championship game on December 6 gets a spot in the BCS title game. Tebow's slow start is too much to overcome this year in the Heisman race but Florida's overall play has many thinking the Gators are now CFB's best team. Tebow's thrown 16 TDs (just two INTs) and added nine more TDs on the ground over the last seven games. Florida's running game last year was all Tebow and WR Harvin (764 / 9.2 YPC / 6 TDs). However, freshman Rainey (557 / 7.5 YPC) and Demps (440 / 9.6 YPC) have been very good plus Harvin (525 / 9.5 YPC / 8 TDs) continues his outstanding play (also 35 catches for seven more TDs). The Gators average 229.8 YPG on the ground (6.1 YPC) and 214.8 YPG through the air, for 46.5 PPG. FSU can't match the Gators on offense but the running game (190.2 YPG / 5.1 YPC) is 'light years' ahead of where its been the last few seasons (FSU has averaged just under 110 YPG for the last three years on the ground!) and QB Ponder, while no Tebow, has given the Seminoles much better QB play than its had in awhile. The Seminoles, as always, can play some defense. FSU allows 18.5 PPG (Florida, 12.0) and 272.6 YPG (Florida, 278.7). The Seminoles have lost just three games this year, 12-3 to Wake when they had seven TOs, 31-28 to Ga Tech (fumbled going into the end zone in the game's final seconds) and 27-17 to Boston College. The Seminoles can't control their ACC fate but they would love nothing more than to knock Florida out of the national title 'picture.' The Gators have played the Seminoles in their regular season finale every year since 1980, going 14-13-1. However, Florida has won four straight (3-1 ATS), including last year's 45-12 win in "The Swamp." Tebow wasn't 100 percent in that game, yet had 262 yards passing with three TDs, plus 89 yards rushing with two more TDs. That being said, the home team is 15-5 ATS the last 20 meetings between these two rivals and FSU finds itself in the role of a home dog for just the THIRD time in the last seven years. In 2006 at plus-eight vs these Gators, the Seminoles lost 21-14 but covered and in 2005 against the 'Canes, FSU (plus-three) won, 10-7. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Oklahoma -7.5
Texas' loss to Texas Tech gave the Sooners new life, following their loss to Texas , and they have taken full advantage. This team is too focused and too good offensively for even Oklahoma State 's rivalry juices to get an upset brewing. The Cowboys were absolutely torched through the air by Texas Tech and you will see the same thing happen here. The Sooners have not had too many pure passers like Bradford and he will pick apart a suspect secondary today. Oklahoma is 13-4 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 40.8 to 19.5. Lay the points.
Johnny Guild
Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma Sooners have won the last five meetings versus Oklahoma State Cowboys, going 4-1 ATS, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma State.Look for the Sooners to make it six straight wins against the Cowboys. I don’t expect a blowout. Oklahoma State will score, but not enough against the Sooners and Sam Bradford attack. Remember, The Cowboys’ defense allowed a total of 629 yards against Texas Tech in a 56-20 defeat in week 11. Meanwhile, the Sooners clobber Texas Tech last week 65-21 at home. Oklahoma should have no difficulty seizing a victory in Stillwater.
Oklahoma Sooners -7.5
Virginia Tech Hokies -8
Tech Red Raiders -22
CBB
Wisconsin Badgers -16
Butler Bulldogs -9
Utah State Aggies -16
Tom Freese
Massachusetts at Wis-Green Bay
Prediction: Wis-Green Bay
Wisconsin Green Bay is 14-5-3 ATS their last 22 games vs. losing teams and they are 4-1 ATS off a straight up win. The Phoenix are 5-2-1 ATS their last 8 home games and they are 8-3-1 ATS at home vs. a team with a losing record. Massachusetts is 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 Saturday game and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 non-conference games. PLAY ON WISCONSIN GREEN BAY -
Drew Gordon
South Carolina (pk) at CLEMSON
Doesn't take a brain surgeon to tell you the Ol' Ball Coach is going to have his troops out for blood this afternoon at Clemson after getting throttled at Florida 56-6 two weeks ago. It was the worst loss of his storied college career, and if ever there was a time to ride the Gamecocks, it would be today.
As if there wasn't enough bad blood between these two schools, you can rest-assured the Gamecocks have not forgotten last year's last second 23-21 home loss to the Tigers, which subsequently ended their postseason hopes. In other words, they're MAJOR motivational and preparedness edges for South Carolina in this one.
From a match up standpoint, while both teams looked terrible on the offensive end in their last games, you can understand why South Carolina struggled in the Swamp. However, the same cannot be said for Clemson, as Virginia's defense (even at home), is nowhere near as good as the Gators. Also for those of you who watched the game, you know the Tigers offense benefited from some costly Virginia turnovers, and if the Cavs would've taken care of the ball, the game might have ended in the single-digits!
Bottom line, between revenge and the added motivation of getting their asses handed to them by the Gators, look for the Gamecocks to respond with one of their most focused efforts of the season this afternoon. While its true the Tigers need this win to become bowl eligible, its still not enough to overcome a highly motivated South Carolina team hell bent on redemption.
Take South Carolina over Clemson in this college football match up.
3♦ SOUTH CAROLINA
Oklahoma at OKLAHOMA STATE +7'
Tempting isn't it? You know after watching the Sooners annihilate Texas Tech last week, laying this many at Okie State seems like the "deal of the century," right? Well boys, you should know better. If I've told you once, I've told you a thousand times: "there's no such thing as a free lunch," and this game is a perfect example and here's why:
Sure, the Sooners have looked great over the last 3 weeks, but if any opponent is going to give them trouble, it'll be the Cowboys. Why? A couple reasons, but let's start with the fact this is an intense rivalry game between two very good teams. Although the Sooners have won 2 straight in Stillwater, those games were razor close (by a combined 9 points), and clearly show how much better the Cowboys play at home.
Also, you have to consider the fact, the Cowboys were idle last week, and should be thoroughly prepared and well-rested for this critical match up. Both teams would benefit greatly from a win here, and make no mistake, playing spoiler in such an intense rivalry is a big motivational factor.
Can't say much negative about the Sooner from a personnel standpoint, but what I can tell you is the Cowboys aren't that far behind. Remember guys, the only teams to beat Okie State this season were Texas and Texas Tech with BOTH of those games played in hostile territory... So sleep on this Cowboys team at your own risk, especially when they're in Stillwater.
Finally, the revenge factor runs high in this one, especially after the Cowboys Big 3 - QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, and WR Dez Bryant - all got shut down last year. With the extra-week to prepare, and the home crowd behind them, I'm looking for the Cowboys to give the Sooners a little scare in this one. Granted, I still see the Sooners winning, but this one will be closer than Vegas wants you to believe.
Take Oklahoma State plus the points over Oklahoma in this college football match up.
2♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Chris Jordan
Houston -3 at RICE
This is a no-brainer in this Texas Tussle, as Houston will cover the field goal line with a near-double digit win over Rice.
Not getting too involved with this one, it’s not worth that much in this rivalry I don’t mind giving you for free. But it’s real simple see: if Houston wins it will play East Carolina in the Conference USA title game next weekend. And though Rice still has an outside chance of playing in the league championship game, the Owls need a win and a Tulsa loss to Marshall to get there. I like my chances with the nation’s second-ranked offense.
Forget about last week’s letdown win over UTEP, if you’re hindered in believing the Miners scared this team … it was Houston’s way of exhaling after a 70-30 shellacking of Tulsa. Houston has the second-best pass offense as well, and though Rice is 8-3 on the year, it has the 111th-ranked defense, the 107th-ranked scoring defense, the 102nd-ranked pass defense and the 105th-ranked rushing D. So what part of Rice’s stop unit is going to slow the Cougars? Anyone on the other side clearly hasn’t done his homework, lay the chalk with Houston.
2♦ HOUSTON
SportsInsights
Nevada vs Louisiana Tech
Nevada fell just short in a rally against undefeated and BCS-bound Boise State last week, as they lost by a touchdown. The Wolf Pack rank5th nationally in total offense with 522.2 yards per game, and they are the top rushing team in the nation with 308.5 yards per game. Nevada allows 31.5 points per game. The rushing defense is second in the nation, giving up 64.5 yards per game, but the passing defense ranks dead last nationally by allowing 326.8 yards per game. .
Louisiana Tech comes in at 7-4 with a chance to finish second in the WAC and a shot at their first bowl game since 2001. The Bulldogs have won four straight and are looking to remain undefeated at home. Tech's passing offense ranks 112th in the nation, and the strength of their team is the tailback duo of Daniel Porter and Patrick Johnson. Both backs are nursing injuries, but will be ready to play this weekend. The Bulldogs' defense is allowing an average of 100.1 yards per game on the ground.
Nevada opened as 3.5-point favorites at Pinnacle, despite Louisiana Tech have the better overall record. Nevada has faced some tough opponents this season, with games against Texas Tech, Missouri and Boise State. This national exposure is probably a one reason the public is so strongly behind the Wolf Pack; another may be the high-scoring offense. The line has fluctuated between Nevada -3.5 and -5.5 at most books tracked by Sports Insights. The Wolf Pack are receiving a whopping 91% of spread bets and 90% of parlay bets. The line fluctuation and the strong Nevada backing has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on the Bulldogs, including one at BetOnline (28-18, +7.12).
Louisiana Tech +5
Maryland vs Boston College
Maryland is coming off a home loss to Florida State that finished off any chance the Terrapins had at a berth in the ACC Championship Game. Maryland still has a reason to play hard because a win will still mean a tie for the top record in the ACC Atlantic Division (which they would lose in a tiebreaker.) The Terrapins have been a tough team to predict this season, as they have beaten four ranked teams, while losing to four unranked teams. Maryland's ground attack is the strength of its offense, with a pair of strong tailbacks in Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett. The Terrapins have had some issues defending mobile quarterbacks this season, and they are allowing 147 rushing yards per game.
Boston College can clinch the ACC Atlantic Division and a berth in the ACC Championship Game with a win this week. The Eagles lost starting quarterback Chris Crane to a broken collarbone last week, but backup Dominique Davis led BC on a 70-yard game-winning drive against Wake Forest last week. The win pushed their winning streak to three games. BC ranks 95th in total offense, but they are 55th in scoring offense. The Eagles ranks fifth in the nation in total defense, and they lead the nation in interceptions.
Boston College opened as 6.5-point favorites at Pinnacle and most books tracked by Sports Insights. The line has moved between BC -6 and -7 throughout the marketplace, and the movement triggered a Steam Move on Maryland at ABC (70-57, +6.5 units). Early in the week, the Eagles were drawing heavy public backing, but late Wednesday that started shifting. Maryland is now drawing 54% of the public's spread bets, but the Eagles are receiving 72% of parlay bets. The numbers earlier in the week triggered a Smart Money play on the Terrapins at The Pig (113-99, +.2.7 units).
Maryland +7
WUNDERDOG
New Jersey at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -140
The Devils have won five in a row, but against whom? Four of those five opponents were losing teams. Now they get Pittsburgh and they are in for a rude awakening. Without Fleury, the Penguins have struggled a bit, but they should be able to handle New Jersey here as they adjust to his absence more and more each game. Pittsburgh still has Sidney Crosby who is again near the top of the league in points. On the road, the Devils are averaging just 2.4 goals per game. They are also averaging the same against division foes. Pittsburgh gets 3.2 per game at home and 3.3 against division opponents. In division games since last season, New Jersey is just 17-27. I like the Penguins here.
Southcoast Sports
Nevada Wolf Pack -5
It comes as no surprise that Nevada has more rushing yards per game than passing yards. After all Nevada has the #1 ranked rushing attack in the nation at 308 rushing yards per game. What is surprising in this game is that Louisiana Tech rushes for 196 yards a game, while passing for 148 yards a game.
Nevada lost a close game to Boise St. last week, and should rebound nicely against Tech here today. Nevada should have no problems scoring against this Bulldog team that has given up 31 or more points in 3 of its last 4 games. We have history on our side, as Nevada has won the last 3 games by a combined 42-12 margin, and may very well see the 30-40 point mark today.
Louisiana Tech has won 4 straight games, and 5 of its last 6. They have been playing mistake free ball, taking advantage of turnover opportunities when they arise. Tech has also been very solid at home this season, going 5-0 at Joe Aillet Stadium. However, this will be the stoutest test thus far for the Bulldogs.
If Tech gets behind, which could easily happen, and they have to abandon the running game, they will be hard pressed to play catch up. Nevada can move the ball both on the ground and through the air, and will make things difficult for the Bulldog defense. Let's side with the far more superior offense team in the Wolf Pack.
Take the Nevada Wolf Pack -5 for 3-Units
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Virginia +8
3 Units - Syracuse +21.5
3 Units - Calgary Flames -140
3 Units - Colorado St +2
2 Units - Portland -2