Info Plays
3* on Alabama -14.5
Reasons why Alabama covers the spread Saturday:
1.) Alabama has lost 6 straight meetings in the Iron Bowl to Auburn, and with revenge in mind, the Crimson Tide will not have a letdown Saturday. Auburn is having their worst season in years, and the Tigers cannot even be mentioned in the same class as Alabama here. There is plenty of blame, but ranking last in red zone offense in the country, scoring on 58.8 percent of chances, has to be at the top. While Auburn will be settling for field goals like they have all season, Alabama will be punching in touchdowns all game long behind a running game that no team has been able to stop this season.
2.) Auburn is 1-3 in road games and 0-4 ATS away from home. The Tigers score just 10.0 PPG in road games. Auburn will not be able to put up more than 10 points Saturday against an Alabama defense that allows just 12.5 PPG on the season and 9.0 PPG at home. Don’t be surprised if you see the Crimson Tide shut out Auburn in the 2008 edition of the Iron Bowl.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play On - Home favorites (ALABAMA) - after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins, in conference games. This is a 67-24 ATS System hitting 73.6% over the last 5 seasons. Alabama should really be at least a 21-point favorite today, but the only reason they are not is because the odds makers are expecting a bit of a letdown. But it simply won’t happen because head coach Nick Saban has been in this spot before, winning a National Championship at LSU. This guy is one of the best motivators in the country, and his team will be giving max effort Saturday which will yield a blowout win against the overmatched Auburn Tigers. Bet Alabama at home.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on NC State +2
It’s been a tale of two seasons for NC State. When they started the year, it looked as if the Wolf Pack may not win a game all season. But now it appears they could beat any team in the nation with the way they have been playing. NC State has won 3 games in a row over quality teams in Duke, Wake Forest and North Carolina. Last week’s 41-10 road win at UNC couldn’t have gone any better. Rushing for 187 yards and throwing for 287 yards was only part of it. NC State’s defense forced UNC into 6 turnovers as they completely dominated every phase of the game. Now the Wolf Pack sit one win shy of becoming bowl eligible, and they will not let their recent efforts go without a reward. NC State will cap off a great end to their 2008 season with a 4-game winning streak to become bowl eligible with a win over Miami Saturday. The Hurricanes lost at Georgia Tech in a 23-41 beating last week. The Yellow Jackets rushed for a ridiculous 472 yards on this Miami defense. NC State has been pounding the rock with consistency in each of their last 5 games. During this span, NC State has rushed for 157, 155, 159, 149 and 187 yards against their last 5 opponents. NC State has found their passing game as well, throwing for 218 yards or more in 3 of their last 6 games. The Wolf Pack will have the Hurricanes on their heels all game long with this balanced offense. Miami won’t have an answer for neither their running game, nor their passing game. NC State takes care of the ball better than any team in the country. The Wolf Pack have committed just 2 turnovers in their last 6 games overall for a 0.33 turnovers/game average. That’s outstanding, and it will be a key to beating a Miami team that has committed 3 or more turnovers in 4 of their last 6 games overall. Miami is a young team that makes too many mistakes to win this big road game. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 7-0 ATS against conference opponents this season. NC State’s run of dominance against the spread vs. conference opponents continues Saturday. Cash in with NC State as the underdog.
Black Widow
1* on Houston -3
Houston is simply the more complete football team in this match-up with Rice Saturday. This game will decide the C-USA West Division with both teams entering with only 1 loss in conference play. Yes, Rice can put points on the board behind a great QB and one of the most talented wide receivers in the country, but Houston simply has too many athletes to let Rice win this game. Houston will shut down WR Jarrett Dillard and make QB Chase Clement try and utilize his other targets to beat them. Rice will get their points, but we don’t see the Owls being able to stop Houston at all. The Cougars will keep piling on the touchdowns, as Houston is scoring 51.3 points per game over their last 3 contests. They put up 70 points on Tulsa, the preseason favorite to win the C-USA. Houston has played well in big games, and this is a huge game to decide the C-USA West Crown. Rice has never really been in this spot before, playing big games late in the season. The Owls will fold under the pressure, while Houston, who is a perennial C-USA contender, will rise up to the occasion. Rice is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992. Take Houston and lay the points.
Nite Owl Sports
Maryland Terrapins @ Boston College Eagles
Pick: 3 units Under 41.5
With BC placing its ACC North title hopes on the shoulders of a RS frosh with little experience, who had 81 total yards running and passing, including two key fumbles after replacing injured QB Crane (out for this game) and -22 YR on 12 carries, we're not expecting much offense from BC. However, their defense has been intimidating all year, with 31 takeaways and just 270 total YPG given up, and is clearly the strongest of the four units on the field in this game.
Maryland's offense has struggled all year on the road, averaging just 12 ppg in its four roadies, and is now bogging down offensively even at home, with just 17 and 3 points in Terps last two HGs. In fact, over the full season (home and road combined), Terps offense has a lousy 17.8 YPT, which means it is very inefficient. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the term YPT (yards per point), Maryland's YPT of 17.8 means that Terps must gain 17.8 yards for every point they score, which is alot (average YPTs on offense in college FB are about 14.5 to 15). So things don't look good for Maryland offense, either.
Looking at each team's performance vs totals line in BC's home games and Maryland's road games TY, we find further support for the under, as Terps are 0-4 road under TY, averaging just 35.5 total points in those four, and while BC was 2-2 TY at home vs the totals line, they averaged just 37.5 total points in the four home games, still well below today's inflated totals line of 41.5.
So based on the above, it's pretty clear that the best value in this game is with the under, and with the line set at 41 or 41.5, we suggest 3 units on the under.
PRICELESS PICKS
1 Unit on Kentucky +4
4-7 Tennessee should not be laying more than a field goal to 6-5 Kentucky . This is a big game for the Wildcats to get to 7-5 and to shore up a bowl bid. Tennessee has really struggled in the home chalk and we expect this trend to continue here. Tennessee is just 2-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. The Vols have also struggled against the number off road wins in the SEC. The Vols are 7-19 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival since 1992. Kentucky is 3-1 ATS on the road this season while the Vols are 1-5 ATS at home. Take the points.
Right Angle Sports
Portland -2.5 1 UNIT
John Ryan
Game: North Carolina at Duke
Prediction: Duke
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Duke - AiS shows an 80% probability that Duke will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Duke will not gain more than 250 net passing yards. Note that UNC is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 52-22 ATS for 70% since 1992, Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points poor rushing team gaining 100-140 RY/game against a team with an average rushing defense allowing 140-190 RY/game and after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
Matt Fargo
Game: CS-Northridge at Rider
Prediction: Rider
Rider is going to be a player in the MAAC this season with four returning starters from last season?s 23-11 team. This is a really solid spot for the Broncs. Rider comes into this game with a 2-1 record and while those victories came against some less than quality competition, they were both wins on the road. This is their first home game of the season which sets up really nice as well. They went 11-2 at home last season so this is a tough place for any opposition to come into and walk out with a win.
CS-Northridge is picked by many to win the Big West Conference this season. It has a solid inside-outside combo of Josh Jenkins and Tremaine Townsend and that could be the winning formula out west. The Matadors have played three straight road games, losing all three, and this is not the place to get it back. The travel out to the east coast will have a negative effect and even though it is a revenge game, getting that payback away from home is never easy. Rider won by a point last season in Northridge and wins again here. 3* Rider Broncs
Brian Hansen
Game: Notre Dame at USC
Prediction: USC
This game looks like a mismatch on paper and I fully expect that this Saturday. Notre Dame has lost three of their past four games including last week's embarrassment losing at home to lowly Syracuse as 19 point favorites. This week the Fighting Irish head across the country to face a team that they haven't matched up well with over the past six seasons as they are 0-6 straight up and just 1-5 ATS in that period. Notre Dame was beaten soundly 38-0 by the Trojans last season and that game was on their home field. The Fighting Irish haven't fared well as large underdogs as they are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 games when listed as an underdog of eight or more ponts. USC comes into this game winners of seven straight and the Trojans have dominated their foes over that stretch winning by an average of 40.9 to 6.6. The USC defense has been dominant as they have shut out three of those seven opponents. The Trojans come into this game fifth in the BCS standings and need a big performance the last two weeks if they want any shot of advancing to the championship game. USC comes into this game off a week of rest and the Trojans are 5-1 ATS their last six games with two or more weeks off. USC has been dominant against non-conference opponents over the last three seasons going an impressive 9-1 ATS.
MTi Sports
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Over
The Rockets are 8-0 OU (+15.2 ppg) with at least one day of rest off a home loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak and 8-0 OU (+18.4 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. In addition,the Rockets are 4-0 OU (+16.5 ppg) when seeking revenge for a road loss in which Tracy McGrady was NOT the Rockets' high scorer. Take the Spurs and Rockets OVER this low number.
Andre Gomes
CLEVELAND / MILWAUKEE
We are coming from a very frustrating day, where we went 1-1-1, after all it's not every day that we lost a pick by half a point and we have a push on a total, where we took the over, had the push secured with one minute to go and nobody scored until the end of the game. Well, we have to move forward and think that these kind of things don't happen every day.
Well, in this game the streaking Cavs will come to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. Note that during the day, the public has been bitting the over in a 80% basis. And why not? After all, the Cavs are coming from four games where they scored 110, 119, 117 and 112 points and their offense looks unstoppable right now. Note also that in most of these games, Lebron didn't play in the fourth quarter. On the other side, the Bucks are coming from three overs in a row, where they allowed their opponents to score 108, 102 and 107 points. So, how can the Bucks stop the offense of the Cavs? They can't and that's the logical approach of this game.
However, I don't think like that. Look at the opponents of the Cavs, especially their last 3: Knicks, Thunder and Warriors are far away from being good defensive teams. Coincidently or not, these three teams are part of the group of the six worst teams of the league in terms of FG% allowed. The Knicks are dead last with 48.8% FG, the Thunder are 27th with 47.1% FG and the Warriors are 24th with 46% FG allowed. So, it wasn't surprising at all that the Cavs scored so many points against them. Actually the surprise would be if they couldn't score against them. The question in here is to know if the Bucks will offer some resistance or not. Looking at their last games, it looks like they wouldn't, but after yesterday's game where they lost by 97-107 at Detroit, the comments of Scott Skiles say it all:
"There is playing time (available) on this team," Skiles said. "It's up for grabs. We're trying to make clear to the guys that whoever wants to get with our program, defend, there's playing time to be had. If anybody wants to do that. We're searching."
After all, he is right, as Detroit made 8 of its first 11 shots, scored 62 points in the first half, surpassed its season scoring average by 10 points and shot 52.6% FG in the fourth quarter.
"We've got to find a way," Skiles said. "The issue is, though, even the guys I bring into the game (off the bench aren't much It's not like there's a big contrast now." . . . better).
Even Charlie Bell referred that:
"We've got to do better (defensively)," Bucks guard Charlie Bell said. "We're giving up way too much dribble penetration, causing guys to come in and collapse, and they're finding open guys. We have to do a better job of containing the ball and we haven't been doing that.
I know that sometimes talking doesn't work at all, but not with Scott skiles, who is 13-3 Under in home games off 2 or more consecutive road losses in all games he has coached. So, I expect a good defensive response from the Bucks in this game. On the other side, I think Milwaukee will struggle on the offense. Andrew Bogut is still out and the team will struggle a lot without him, especially in the paint. These three teams that the Cavs faced recently (Knicks, Thunder, Warriors) scored an average of 31.1 points in the paint against them and the Bucks will struggle to score down the spot without Bogut. Michael Redd may comeback to the lineup today, but he will be without any kind of rhythm and he won't be a factor on this game.
An important stat is that the Cavs are 21-9 Under after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons and this game will be far from being easy for them tonight. These two teams have faced each other this season, with the Cavs winning the game by 99-93, in a game where even though they shot 35-72 (48.6%) FG and Lebron scored 41 points, the game still had just 192 points. As a bonus, I refer that the first referee for this game is one of the most consistent under referees in the league: Ron Garretson, who is 9-3 Under this season and went 49-25 Under last season. Come to this, I expect this game to stay in the low 190's and so, I'm taking the under in here.
Regular Play on Under 196