Saturday Service Plays

Matt Fargo

Navy @ Army
PICK: Army +11

Make it 12 years now since Army went to a bowl game. The Black Knights come into this annual rivalry game with a 3-8 record but there have been some reasons for optimism as even though the results show another losing season, it could have been much better. Three losses against Temple, New Hampshire and Akron by a combined 85-20 to start the season could have sent Army reeling but it did not give up as it fought hard the rest of the way and put up some very respectable efforts.

Army went 3-2 in its next five games with the two losses against Texas A&M and Buffalo coming by only seven points total. The Black Knights then dropped their last three games but two of those were close and on the season, four of their losses were by single digits. The reason for the turnaround was that the defense started playing great and currently the defense is ranked 44th overall including a very solid 32nd against the run. This is pretty good considering Army finished 117th against the run last season.

Navy is heading to a bowl game for the 6th straight season but unlike past seasons, it just has not seemed as dominant. The Midshipmen are 1st in the country in rushing offense which comes as no surprise but their average is 57 ypg from last season and that is a huge dropoff. Through five weeks this year, they were averaging 335 ypg and now the average is at 292 ypg as teams were able to slow down the ground attack. Navy has been outgained in four of its last six games.

Navy has dominated this rivalry with wins in the six meetings and it has been able to cover five of those. With the records sitting at opposite ends again this season, it is no surprise that the public is all over the Midshipmen yet again. Navy has won the six meetings by an average score of 28.2 ppg but this is easily the best Army team coming into the season finale over those six games. The Black Knights are getting outscored by just 6.6 ppg and outgained by only 31.6 ypg. 3*Army Black Knights

Ben Burns

Game: Washington Huskies at California
Prediction: California

Good news. The Huskies played a competitive game last week. Bad news. That game came against instate rival, Washington State, the only other team on the West Coast as bad as them. The Huskies couldn't even win either, losing by a score of 16-13. Including that result, Washington is now 0-9 SU/ATS its last nine games and an awful 1-10 ATS (0-11 SU) on the season. There's no reason to think that the Huskies will be able to hang with Bears either. You may recall what happened when Cal took on Washington State. The Bears won 66-3! That was on the road, too. This should be another one-sided affair. Lay the big number.

LT Profits

USC @ UCLA Under 47.5

The USC Trojans have allowed 10 points or less in six of their eight Pac-10 games this season, and we do not expect the pathetic UCLA Bruins offense to reach double-digits here.

It should also be noted, however, that the USC offense is averaging 37.1 points in conference, and they may not quite be on top of their game here knowing that they now have virtually no chance of playing in the BCS Championship Game. It would not be at all surprising if this game resembles the meeting between these clubs last season, when the Trojans won just 24-7.

Now make no mistake, the Bruins are terrible this season. That said, their defense has actually played very well the last two games. Yes, holding Washington to seven points does not mean much, but they followed up that effort by incredibly limiting Arizona State to only 127 total yards of offense last week.

It is fairly amazing that they lost that game 34-9, but consider that they did not allow a single offensive touchdown, as the four Sun Devils touchdowns came on three interception returns and a fumble return! Also, UCLA will no doubt be the more motivated team this weak, so we feel an inspired defense can keep this final score quasi-respectable if they could match their efforts of the last two contests.

Thus, the end result should be a much lower scoring game than many people expect.

Pick: USC, UCLA Under 47.5

Indian Cowboy

Take East Carolina +13 over Tulsa

Remember East Carolina? Remember, these two teams have not met each other this year. I am giving this play out for several reasons including the fact that East Carolina has a defense which is ranked Top 30 in the nation in points allowed and furthermore they play a Tulsa team that does not have a stout defense. This defense is ranked similar to UTEP's defense in which East Carolina put up 50 plus points up last week. Tulsa's defense is ranked 111th in passing yards allowed and 96th overall. I will take the better defense over the better offense here and look for East Carolina to get fired up early and make this into a competitive, drawn out game.

John Ryan

Game: East Carolina at Tulsa
Prediction: Tulsa

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Tulsa I currently have the winner of the Army Navy Game a 7* Titan play available now as well as my 10* SEC Game of the Year. There will be more plays coming as I finish the extensive amount of research I need to do so that you have the information to win with me this weekend. AiS shows a 73% probability that Tulsa will win this game by 12 or more points. AiS shows an 88% probability Tulsa will outgain ECU by 2 or more yards per play. Note that ECU is just 2-24 ATS (-24.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 29-6 ATS for 83% since 1997. Play against road dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after having won 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. What is really impressive with this system is the fact that 58% of these games have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Rare do you find a system of this length of time that covers the spread by 7 points in 40% of the plays. East Carolina in a poor role noting they are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road lined games this season. Take Tulsa to win the Conference USA Championship.

Bettorsworld

2* Alabama +10

If ever there was a game we wanted to play, long before there was ever a line posted, it would be this one, and the play, before digging into the match up, would be Alabama. Heck, we'd probably like Bama +3 here never mind 10. As we have stated on several occasions, when you back an underdog in college football, you should be expecting that team to win the game straight up. You should never be backing dogs with the hopes that they can "hang within a number". That's a losing approach. When you're backing a team that's a 10 point dog that you feel can win a game outright, that's pretty strong folks.

If you had told me in August, that there would be an SEC title game where one team would be 12-0 and the other would be 11-1, and that I could take the 12-0 team at +10, my only question at the time would be, where can I backup the Brinks truck? I guess my only other question would be, Can I bring TWO brinks trucks?

Being undefeated in college football is one heck of an accomplishment in any conference. Being undefeated in the SEC is exceptional. Though we would be the first to acknowledge that the SEC was down a notch this year when compared to years past. Having said all that, it's important to note that you don't HAVE to wager on every big game. There's no law that says you can't just sit back and enjoy a big game for what it is, without any stake on the outcome.

Truth is, as crazy at the 10 point line may seem to some folks, a strong case can be made for either side in this game. So let's take a look at each side here.

Making a case for Alabama :

Not hard to do. The damn team is undefeated. If they had won every game by 1 point, on last second field goals, you could make a case for them. They simply know how to win. In the end, all that matters is the W. But this team has done more than just squeak by. They have dominated. Who could forget when they went into Athens and destroyed a highly touted Georgia team? Obliterated them really. Alabama gets it done where all football teams should, on the lines. Good offensive and defensive lines have a way of making the skill position players look like all stars. Good offensive lines make stars out of running backs and Quarterbacks. Good defensive lines make stars out of safety's and linebackers. Good lines make coaches look like geniuses. Everything on a good football team starts up front. Look at the Giants in the NFL.

Florida has some problems on their defensive line. Not the best week for problems. Due to injuries the Gators will be working with a 4-5 player rotation up front instead of the preferred 10. If there are consequences to pay for that, they'll show up late in the game after the Alabama offensive line wears them down. Fact is, if Alabama's offensive line can in fact dominate Saturday, then they'll control this game from start to finish and will have one heck of a shot to win it in the end. They'll pound the ball which will open up the passing game a bit.

Defensively Alabama has held everyone except LSU and Ole Miss to under 100 yards rushing while Florida has allowed 7 teams to rush for more than 100 yards. So there's little doubt that we'll see Alabama try to establish the run and more than likely succeed. It's simply x's and o's but that's the case for Alabama. Win the battle at the line of scrimmage and everything else will fall into place.

Making a case for Florida :

The one thing that can throw a monkey wrench into Alabama's plans is a fast start by the Gators. If the Gators hang a couple of quick TD's on the board then the Bama game plan goes out the window. So much for pounding the ball and controlling the game. Making Alabama play from behind is exactly what Florida wants here. If any team in the nation is capable of a fast start, it's the Gators of course. They have one blemish on their record. A home loss to Ole Miss. We can't explain that. No one else has been able to come close all year. They have scored 42 or more points in 7 straight games. They have won by 28 or more in each of the past 7 games. Other than their loss to Ole Miss, their closest game all year was a 23 point win over Miami. Alabama on the other hand, was lucky to squeak by Kentucky and Ole Miss, both at home, and was damn lucky to get by LSU with an overtime win back in early November. Again, Florida isn't just winning. They are rolling teams.

What perhaps was the key to making us back off from making a large play on Alabama was when we broke the game down using common opponents. What better way to gauge the talent of two teams than to see what they were able to do against the exact same level of competition. In this case we have 6 common opponents which is considerable. Of course there are flaws to this approach. The most glaring being that not all games were played in the same locations. Bama may have played one team on the road while Florida played them at home. But it's a good gauge nonetheless. Has been for the close to 30 years I have been doing this, so I can only assume it will continue to be.

When we look at yards per point using only common opponents we get the following results. Alabama is 11.6 on offense and 16.8 on defense for an overall +5.2. Florida is a 9.4 on offense and a 24 on defense for a +14.7. When we subtract Alabama's 5.2 from Florida's 14.7 we get a difference of 9.5........what was the line on this game again? Oh, yeah, 9.5. Hmmmm. Yards per point under the right circumstances is a great tool for determining what a fair line on a game should be. In this case, the ypp line suggests Vegas has it right. Which suggests we stay away from the game.

Just to illustrate what those numbers mean, Florida's 9.4 on offense means they score 1 point for every 9.4 yards gained. 9.4 is phenomenal. It's virtually impossible to have a number better than that. Alabama's number on offense is pretty damn good as well. Just not as good as Florida's. Those numbers suggest both teams were able to move the ball and make use of those yards against the exact same defenses. Likewise on the defensive side of the ball. Florida's number of 24 is spectacular. You really can't do much better than that. Alabama's number of 16.8 is good. Not great. Just good. So against the exact same competition, Florida was able to have a little more success offensively and quite a bit more success defensively in keeping their opponents out of the end zone and making them work for every point. The average points for and against in these games tells the same story. Bama outscored these teams 31-18 while Florida outscored them 44-13.

The SEC is down this year. In years past we have seen Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, Auburn and even Kentucky all in the top 20 at the same time. This year we got mediocrity in the SEC. Even Georgia, a 9-3 team, proved not to be that great when you look at their losses. We bring this up because when you look at the resume of both of these teams, they seem much less impressive when you look at the teams they have beaten. There really isn't a win on either teams schedule that you can look at and say wow. It just wasn't the same brutal SEC we have been used to seeing. It's not either of these teams faults. They did what they had to do with the schedules they had. But it does cause us to use caution especially where Alabama is concerned. When you take a look for example, at how Alabama was lucky to get past LSU, and then take a look and see how Florida rolled over LSU....albeit at home, it's enough to make us take a step back.

Lastly, we have been keeping some basic, simply power ratings for college football for many years. These raw numbers are used just to get a general idea of the difference between two teams. We don't rely on them as much as we used to and mostly use them to take shots at opening lines we perceive as off. These power ratings favor Florida by 13.

So we have made a case for both sides and have thrown around some numbers in the process. Now for the million dollar question. What do we think will actually happen on Saturday afternoon on in to Saturday evening? Well, we think Alabama will find a way to win this game. We think they have the edge where it counts the most and that's on BOTH lines. We think the key advantage will be Alabama's offensive line over Florida's D-Line and expect that to really become evident midway thru the 3rd quarter where we expect the "tide" to turn. Pun intended. Alabama has shown the ability to not only win close defensive battles but have also proven they can put points on the board. One need only look at the Georgia game in Athens that was over by halftime to illustrate that point.

The added motivation of being ranked #1 yet being a 10 point dog only helps the Alabama cause. It's an automatic motivator. Every player on the field is aware of the pointspread. Like it or not, it puts added pressure on teams. There was a quote from a Florida receiver this week in the papers. He suggested he was surprised they were such a large favorite over a 12-0 team. Expect Saban to use the spread as a motivator all week long.

This game is on par to an AFC or NFC Championship game. This is, in affect, what everyone wants. A college playoff game. The winner goes on to College Footballs version of the Super Bowl. The fact that we can make an easy case for both sides, along with the fact that the yards per point numbers against common opponents suggest the line is accurate, and our own power ratings suggest Florida should win by 13, all suggest that this game from our perspective, is best watched from the sidelines without a stake in the outcome. Are we going to take our own advice and stay away here? Of course not! We're going to make a small play on Alabama here based strictly on our belief that they have the better lines and will find a way to spring the upset. 2* Alabama +10

SportsInsights

Navy vs Army

This match up transcends the normal college football rivalry. It is special to more people in this country than any other college match up is. Throw in the thousands of military personnel watching around the world and it adds up to one of the most watched games of the season. President Bush will also be on hand at Lincoln Financial Field for his final Army-Navy showdown as Commander-In-Chief. This is the 109th academy game, and Navy is seeking its sixth straight win over Army and its sixth straight Commander-In-Chief's Trophy.

Navy comes in at 7-4 and is headed to the EagleBank Bowl in Washington D.C. on December 20th to play an undecided ACC opponent. Also undecided is the Midshipmen's quarterback position. Senior Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada looks ready to return from a hamstring injury, but sophomore Ricky Dobbs has sparked the Navy offense since stepping in. The two quarterbacks have split time in practice this week, and they are likely to see a time-share on Saturday. The Midshipmen are the top rushing team in the NCAA with 292 yards per game on the ground, and they can gain their fourth straight NCAA rushing title with a solid effort against the Black Knights. Navy is fifth in the country in turnover margin.

Army comes into the rivalry game with a three-game losing streak, and looking squarely in the eyes of its third consecutive 3-9 season. The Black Knights switched to the triple-option offense this past off-season, and it has proven effective as they come into the game as the ninth-ranked rushing attack (254.1 yards per game.) The problem has been holding onto the ball while gaining those yards. Army has lost 23 of 34 fumbles this season, and they rank 114th in the NCAA in turnover margin. Fullback Collin Mooney needs only 54 yards to break the Black Knights' single-season rushing mark. Starting quarterback Chip Bowden sprained his ankle in practice earlier in the week and is questionable for the game. The Army defense hasn't allowed a team to rush for more than 184 yards this season, but this match up will make for their toughest test.

At Pinnacle, Navy opened as 10.5-point favorites on the neutral field, and they are receiving heavy backing from the public. That's not surprising due their recent domination of the series and their better record. The Midshipmen are garnering 79% of the public spread bets and a staggering 91% of the parlay bets. Despite this support the line currently sits at Navy -10.5 at Pinnacle. Movement at many of the books tracked by Sports Insights triggered multiple Smart Money plays on the Black Knights, including at BetOnline (32-20, +8.72 units) and 5Dimes (76-64, +7.26). We'll take Army and the points.

Army +11

South Florida vs West Virginia

South Florida is coming off an open date as they look to gain some momentum heading into bowl season, where they will likely be play in the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl. The Bulls are also looking for a third consecutive win against West Virginia. USF beat UConn in its previous game despite a lackluster offensive day in which they were limited to only 247 total yards. Junior quarterback Matt Grothe led the team in rushing with 51 yards, but only threw for 124 yards. Tailback Jamar Taylor gained 25 on his 38 yards on the game-winning touchdown run. The Bulls' defense held UConn's Donald Brown, the nation's leading rusher, to 96 yards on 28 carries. USF ranks eighth in the nation in rushing defense.

Senior quarterback Pat White holds 16 of West Virginia's offensive records and will play his final home game in Morgantown. He is also the NCAA's all-time rushing leader for quarterbacks. This season, he was asked to do more throwing the ball, which led to some struggles for the Mountaineers' offense. That has also been a key to USF's strategy against West Virginia the last couple of seasons. The Bulls like to put their corners in man-coverage against the Mountaineers. WVU's defense has been a pleasant surprise this season after losing eight players from last year and suffering key injuries this season (five different starting middle linebackers.) The Mountaineers have only allowed two teams to score more than 21 points this season, and one required overtime to reach the mark.

West Virginia opened as 7-point favorites at Pinnacle, and only the money behind the spread has changed there. There was some fluctuation between WVU -7 and -7.5 at other books tracked by Sports Insights. West Virginia is receiving 73% of public spread bets and 83% of parlay bets. That movement combined with strong public backing for the Mountaineers triggered multiple Smart Money plays on South Florida, including at BetOnline (32-20, +8.72) and 5Dimes (79-64, +7.26). We see a close game, so we'll follow the Smart Money and take the Bulls and the points.

South Florida +7.5

Pittsburgh vs Connecticut

Pittsburgh earned an exciting win over West Virginia with a final-minute touchdown from tailback LeSean McCoy. McCoy had a career-best 183 yards on 33 carries. Much of the talk around Pittsburgh this week has been about the possibility of McCoy declaring for the NFL Draft as a draft-eligible sophomore (McCoy spent one year in prep school before attending Pitt.) McCoy and the efficiency of quarterback Bill Stull leads to a solid ball-control offense, which ranks 17th nationally in time of possession. The Panthers will have to stop the nation's leading rusher in UConn's Donald Brown. If they can do that, their strong pass rush will give the Huskies some trouble.

Connecticut has a chance to finish the season tied for second in the Big East if things go their way. That would help the Huskies standing with bowl selection committees. There's no doubt that the central focus of UConn's offense is the nation's leading rusher Donald Brown. The passing game has been underwhelming all season while dealing with injuries and switches. The return of original starter Tyler Lorenzen against Syracuse hasn't done much to spark the air attack. On defense, the Huskies must limit the damage from Panthers' tailback LeSean McCoy. UConn's defense is allowing an average of 119.6 rush yards per game.

Connecticut opened as 2.5-point home favorites at Pinnacle, and only the money behind the spread has changed. The line has seen movement between UConn -2 and -3 at other books tracked by Sports Insights. The 23rd ranked Panthers are receiving 66% of the public spread bets and 77% of parlay bets. The line fluctuation and heavy Pitt backing triggered multiple Smart Money plays on the Huskies, including one at 5Dimes (79-64, +7.26). A Steam Move was also triggered for UConn at Bet Jamaica (122-95, +15.7) when the line moved to UConn -3. We like those numbers, so we'll take the Huskies at home.

Connecticut -2.5

Tom Stryker

East Carolina vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -11.5

If this game was being played in any other stadium, I would be a little nervous about lying close to two touchdowns with Tulsa. However, in the friendly confines of H.A. Chapman Stadium, the Golden Hurricane has been a force. Tulsa has won 10 straight in its own backyard including its last seven by an average of 40.7 points per game!

Offensively, Tulsa has been outstanding. The Golden Hurricane is averaging 49.3 points and 578.9 total yards per game. The man that makes this unit click is quarterback David Johnson. Ranked No. 1 nationally in passing efficiency (192.4), Johnson has pitched the pigskin around for 3,671 yards or an average of 305.9 passing yards per game. East Carolina’s defensive front four is solid. However, given time to throw, Johnson should pick apart a Pirates secondary that has surrendered an average of 196.8 yards per game.

If you want to beat the Golden Hurricane, you better be able to put points on the board. ECU has struggled to do that this season. Currently ranked 80th in scoring offense (23.5 ppg) and 78th in total offense (340.8 ypg), the Pirates may not be able to find the endzone enough times to match Tulsa point-for-point. If East Carolina turns the football over in this contest and gives the Golden Hurricane’s offense more touches, the Pirates will be in serious trouble.

Respect is certainly given to an ECU team that has recorded a solid 7-1 ATS record in its last eight priced as a double-digit underdog. However, the Golden Hurricane has been unstoppable at home and they’ve cashed 12 of their last 16 in their own backyard coming off a momentum building straight up win. Take Tulsa!

Tony George

Missouri vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -16.5

It boils down to Oklahoma who was given the nod by the BCS point system to represent the South division of the Big 12 after walking through both Okie State and pounding Texas Tech into the ground. OU is playing as good of football as any team in the USA right now, and I agree with the call for them to represent the South.

Mizzou on the other hand was dealt back to back fatal blows early on this season with a home loss to Okie State following by a good Ol fashion woodshed beating from Texas and they have not been the same since. Take into account other than Arkansas and Kansas LAST YEAR Mizzou has no quality wins over a ranked opponent with this highly touted team, and they are off a devastating loss week to Kansas, who threw it all over them at will at Arrowhead stadium. I do respect the MU program, but without a defense, you cannot win big games, just watch last weeks game film.

Missouri biggest issue here in terms of competing is 2 fold. QB Daniel has proven to be less than effective with the pressure on him, and OU can get to the passer. The major issue for Mizzou is no pass rush, and when you give OU quarterback Sam Bradford all day to throw and then pound RB Murray at a weak front four, it makes it a total mis-match up front, and with the skill players and excellent coaching OU has, I sniff a blowout. Many think that Mizzou with nothing to lose here will play wide open and compete in their backyard, I beg to differ. Oklahoma beat them twice last year both in convincing fashion. I see a better OU team this year than last year with a national title on the line while Mizzou simply cannot trade punches on offense to match what OU will put up.

Oklahoma 52 Mizzou 28

Chris Jordan

East Carolina +13' at TULSA

There have been plenty of highs and lows with this East Carolina team this season, but even 12 weeks after the fact, there’s something to be said about a team that notches back-to-back upsets of Top 25 teams to open the season.

ECU comes into the game averaging 23.5 points per game and 340.8 total yards per game, while Tulsa averages 49.3 ppg behind an impressive 578.9 total ypg. And even though mediocrity would best describe the Pirates’ offense, when comparing it to the high-octane Hurricane, it’s the defensive effort of these teams that has me intrigued in taking double digits in a conference championship game.

But on defense, the Pirates are holding foes to 20.5 points and 329.4 yards per game, and even more impressively is the 34 percent conversion rate they yield on 3rd down. This is a stop unit that has found a knack for creating the big play, forcing 25 turnovers and recording 27 sacks. On the flipside, Tulsa has become a vulnerable team on defense, likely because of how much time is spent on the field thanks to that potent offense. And since the Tulsa D is allowing 29.2 points and 400.6 yards per game, it will even things out in this contest.

Looking inside the numbers, the Pirates have covered five straight against teams sporting winning records, while the Hurricane are 3-7 ATS in the same role and 5-11 when coming in off an ATS loss. Using that 5-1 SU run to burst into the conference title game, I’ll take the points with East Carolina.

3♦ EAST CAROLINA

Jack Clayton

Washington at Cal
Pick:Washington

Jeff Tedford's teams are known for packing it in down the stretch. What interest do they have in this game as 35-point favorites? Washington is playing its final game for likeable coach Ty Willingham, plus they haven't won a game all season. I can see a surpreme effort from the Huskies, a yawner for Cal. Play Washington.

Frank Jordan

Buffalo U vs. Ball State
Play: Ball State -14.5

Buffalo is 7-5 on the year and 5-3 in their MAC games as they play in the MAC Championship game in hopes to knock off the undefeated Ball State squad. Ball State has played a dozen games and have won all 12 games as they are 8-0 in the MAC. Look for Ball State to make it lucky 13 as they cruise past Buffalo. Play Ball State

Mike Anthony

Cincinnati U vs. Hawaii
Play: Cincinnati -7

You can take it to the bank that the Bearcats wont have a vacation on their minds here. Cincy is 9-2 and are determined with their hard nose defense and a very well coached team. Look for Cincinnati to make the trip and take care of business late Saturday Night. The Bearcats will be too physical and have an edge in almost every position and take control of this game early and often. This isn't the Hawaii team of old and I expect them to get smoked in this one!

Totals 4U

Boston College vs. Virginia Tech

Boston College (9-3, 5-3 ACC) The Golden Eagles held Maryland to –6 yards rushing and added some creative scoring with a fake field goal/touchdown pass by QB/WR/P/KH Billie Flutie (nephew) plus a 36-yards interception return touchdown by WLB Robert Francois to earn a chance to revenge their 16-30 loss to Tech in the 2007 Conference Championship Game. There’s not much to say about Coach Jeff Jagodzinski’s (20-6 in 2nd season at Chestnut Hill) offense other than it will bore you to death. 151.2 yards rushing per game at 4.0 yards per carry and 168.2 yards passing per game at 5.5 yards per attempt but they commit very few penalties (53 for the entire team all season) and generally work with superior field position thanks to the stoppers. For a pair of smallish true freshmen 5’8” 182 RB Josh Haden (103 for 439 yards and TD) and 5’10” 192 Montel Harris (155 for 798 and 5 TD) have been effective and 6’4” 198 freshman QB Dominique Davis (31 of 59 for 288 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) kept the ball out of the Terrapins’ hands in his first start of the season for injured Chris Crane (broken collarbone). Boston College’s offensive line is big (6’5” 307 per man), durable (completed all 60 possible starts), and as good as ever (23 offensive linemen selected in the last 27 NFL Drafts) but if you need to take a trip to the little boy’s room on Saturday, make the run while the Eagles hold the ball.

The Eagles’ defense is a whole ‘nother animal. Senior defensive tackles 6’3” 324 Ron Brace (21 T, 9 TFL, 3 S) and 6’1” 323 BJ Raji (33 T, 11 TFL, 7 S) are not only immovable against the run, holding their last 5 opponents to an average of 57.0 yards rushing per contest, but can shed blockers with the best in the nation and destroy a pocket by the shortest route. Unlike most college teams, BC brings pro-sized beef to the linebacking corps but they give up nothing in the exchange when it come to athleticism. 6’4” 238 junior SLB Mark Herzlich (98 T, 10 TFL) has picked off 6 balls, taken 2 to the house, and added 3 sacks. 6’0” 252 junior MLB Mike McLaughlin (76 T, 10 TFL) has grabbed one interception plus has racked 4 sacks. 6’2” 253 senior WLB Robert Francois (66 T, 7 TFL) has added a couple of quarterback sacks to the team’s tally of 32 plus provided the game winning score against Maryland to bag the Atlantic Division Title. With this enviable size up the middle, teams must get creative to beat this squad, with this creativity more often than not landing the rock in the wrong hands. Boston College has piled up a national-best 25 interceptions and they know what to do with the ball when they get it. No less than 6 of this crew’s 33 forced turnovers (2nd best NCAA) have been returned for scores and when you throw in a pair of punt returns for scores by 5’11” 196 junior WR Rich Gunnell (42 for 437 yards and 3 TD receiving, 11.2 yards per punt return) it’s clear how Jagodzinski’s boys average 26.7 points scored per game with such a conservative approach when they have the ball.

Virginia Tech (8-4, 5-3 ACC) The Hokies’s offensive unit also lacks the experienced stars at the skill positions and their lack of confidence in the Red Zone (22 TD and 15 FG in 50 trips this season) would have cost them were it not for a 73-yard run by 6’1” 206 sophomore QB Tyrod Taylor (75 of 132 for 812 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT) that overcame a halftime deficit to Virginia and was critical in their banking the tough 17-14 win at Lane Stadium. Taylor’s wheels (121 rushes for 661 yards and 4 TD) were good enough to pile up 137 yards in that game on 16 carries and good enough to earn him the start this week over 6’4” 224 senior QB Sean Glennon (65 for 108 for 743 yards, 3 TD, 5 INT) although both will get snaps. Neither of these guys have been safe behind the line of Wang, Marshman, Schuman, Render, and DeChristopher who’s size at 6’4” and 310 pounds per jersey simply doesn’t relate once the ball is snapped. 37 sacks allowed for a team that throws the ball as little as Coach Frank Beamer’s (175-89-2 in 22nd year at Blacksburg) is ridiculous even if that number is padded by some failed quarterback rushes and for a school that uses the rush as it’s primary weapon (169.4 yards per game with 18 TD), 3.8 yards per carry isn’t going to dictate much to many defenses. Freshman 6’2” 204 WR Jarrett Boykin (27 for 407 and 2 TD), 6’0” 203 WR Danny Coate (32 for 352), and 6’0” 210 RB Darren Evans (228 for 998 and 9 TD) are quality players that we expect much from in 2009.

Like their opponents this week, Virginia Tech’s stars are found on the defensive side of the ball where the Hokies yield 112.2 yards per game on the ground at 3.3 yards per carry and 162.3 yards per game through the air at 7.3 yards per attempt. This front 7 has racked a perfect 84 of 84 possible starts with 6’2” 254 sophomore LDE Jason Worlids (56 T) one of the nation’s most explosive edge-rushers with 16 ½ tackles for loss including 7 quarterback sacks. 6’1” 237 senior OLB Brett Warren (79 T, 4 ½ TFL, INT, FR) has taken both of his turnovers to the house and keep your eye out for backup 5’11” 207 LB Cody Grimm (58 T, 10 TFL, 5 S, INT) who has proven extremely difficult to find in pass rush. Coincidentally, Warren and Grimm are the sons of former Washington Redskin “Hogs” TE Don Warren and G Russ Grimm (his son is 5’11” and 207 pounds?!). 29 team sacks and 80 tackles for loss is some pretty decent heat and the Hokie defensive backfield is plenty good enough to make offenses pay for rushed decisions. Certainly 6’0” 194 senior QB Victor “Macho” Harris (42 T, 2 ½ TFL, FR) deserves his share of the pub with a great career that includes 6 interceptions (2 returned for TD) this season plus time spent on offense (5 for 48 rushing, 8 for 63 receiving) and special teams (10.4 yards per punt return) but we really like the kid at free safety. 6’4” 224 junior Kam Chancellor (48 T, 2 FR, INT) is as much this unit’s defense coordinator as is Bud Foster who cashes the paychecks for the job. Without a doubt, Chancellor’s the kid that can win this game.

SELECTION: The Eagles overcame 5 turnovers to best the Hokies 28-23 at Alumni Stadium back on October 18th. Some of the Beamer special teams magic has faded with zero return touchdowns for Tech this season versus 3 allowed but we expect the old master to pull out all the tricks is a game in which he should know he’s slightly out-manned. It’s not an easy call but we’ll take Boston College –1 at the Orange Bowl.