Mike Wynn Sports
SEC Championship
The SEC Championship is a very intriguing match up in a lot of ways. The Alabama Florida match up is a repeat of the original SEC Championship game played way back in 1992 with Alabama getting the better of it in a 28-21 win. This year’s title game marks the first time that the two teams coming into the contest are ranked as the number 1 & 2 teams in the AP top 25 national poll. Alabama 12-0 has held down the number 1 spot since the beginning of November, but Florida at number 2 is possibly the hottest team in the country and a favorite of a lot of the national sports pundits. The most intriguing part of this game for me though is the contrast of styles. Alabama is big and physical and they like to maul their opponents, while Florida is all about speed and the big play. So we’ll take a quick look at both these teams starting with the Florida Gators.
Florida Gators are playing in their third SEC Championship in 4 years and they’ve been on a major offensive roll since losing to Mississippi 31-30 in the Swamp back on September 27. Tim Tebow has been superb since that loss completing 68% of his passes, tossing 19 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, plus he’s run for 382 yards and scored 10 touchdowns himself. Yes the high ankle sprain to super quick Percy Harvin will slow him down or even have him on the bench Saturday, but Florida still has major speed and depth at the skill positions. No doubt the offense takes a hit with the Harvin injury and in a game like this against a team like Alabama you know Urban Meyer would like to have all his weapons available. With the Florida offense so prolific the Gator defense tends to get overlooked, but they shouldn’t. Florida defense is only allowing 12.2 points per game this season, and their athleticism and quickness up front will give Alabama some problems. Gators have been outstanding at getting off blocks and making plays on the defensive side of the ball. Key match up for Florida will be their defensive front against the big physical run blocking offensive line of Alabama. If the Gators can control the trenches and keep their offense on the field it’ll take its toll on the Alabama “D”, and they can’t the reverse will be true.
Alabama obviously has no where near the fire power on offense that Florida has but Nick Saban has a winning formula in place. Alabama plays great defense, they don’t turn the ball over, and they pound their opponents with a big physical rushing attack. Senior QB John Parker Wilson is the field general for the Tide but he isn’t really asked to win games. Instead it’s Parker Wilson’s job to manage the offense and not make major mistakes. Alabama Running Backs Coffee & Ingram average 6.2 & 5.4 yards per carry this season, and they get it done behind a big offensive line that has no man under 6-2 and 300 pounds. With the ball control offense Alabama relies on their defense and they’re a very good group. Alabama defense has allowed 11.5 points per game this season and their 74 yards per game on the ground and 248 total yards per game rank among the best in the nation. Very important for Alabama to be able to move the ball on the ground in this one and keep that Florida offense on the sidelines. Defensively the Tide needs to play tough and physical and not allow the big play, but that’s easier said than done.
Taking a look at some of the trends and angles in this one it’s hard to find a reason to buck either of these squads. Alabama 9-3 ATS in all games this season while Florida is 9-2. Urban Meyer 29-18 ATS in all games he’s coached at Florida including a perfect 6-0 ATS against winning teams this season. Alabama is paying Nick Saban $4M a year for a reason as the guy can flat out game plan, and he’ll have his team well prepared here Saturday. I have to lean toward the underdog in this one Saturday and take Alabama. I can’t remember a time when the number 1 team in the country was getting double digits and I think Alabama will keep it close. If you were going to draw up a team to beat a team like the Florida Gators, Alabama is the team you would draw up. Alabama keeps this one interesting and close but ultimately I think Tim Tebow will find a way to win it for Florida.
Nevada Sharpshooter
East Carolina at Tulsa
The 10-2 Golden Hurricane of Tulsa will host the 8-4 East Carolina Pirates in the Conference USA Championship game. Tulsa’s high powered offense features QB David Johnson who has thrown an amazing 42 TD passes compared to just 13 interceptions. His main targets are possession reciever Damaris Johnson with 44 receptions and 9 TDs and deep threat Brennan Marion, 39 catches and 8 TDs. On the ground the Hurricane rely on RB Tarrion Adams who has almost 1200 yards rushing while averaging 6 yards per carry. Adams has also crossed the goal line 9 times. Defensively though Tulsa has struggled giving up over 30 points 5 times this season.
The Pirates, who are looking for their first conference title, will be led by QB Patrick Pinkney. Pinkney doesn’t put up the big numbers of his Tulsa counterpart but is efficient, completing 64% of his passes. The ground game is centered around the RB duo of Norman Whitley and Brandon Simmons who combined have accounted for 9 touchdowns and 950 yards rushing. The Pirate defense has been solid all year, holding opponents to less than 20 points or less 7 times.
While Tulsa certainly has the advantage on offense, they have only blown out bad teams. In the 8 games they have won by over 2 touchdowns only Rice has a winning record, and Rice plays no defense. I like East Carolina in this game +13.5, they may have the lesser record but have played a stronger schedule and also battled injuries in the middle of the year.
Razor Sharp Sports
Missouri vs. Oklahoma
No matter what happened, the Big-12 knew that their was going to be 2 teams that weren’t going to be happy. I give them credit for coming up with a pretty good tiebreaker situation. When you have a conference championship game, you can only have 2 teams play and it is bound to happen that their may be a three way tie. Unlike the BCS overall, you can’t have a playoff. I am not saying I agree with the decision that Oklahoma should be the team, but it is the system that is in place and we have to deal with it. So here is another question, if Oklahoma is less than impressive in the Big-12 Championship, could Texas jump back over the Sooners in the National Championship Game. OK, enough about talking what ifs. Lets take a look at what we do have. It is a rematch of last year’s title game between Missouri and Oklahoma! Oklahoma won that contest 38-17.
The Missouri Tigers come into the Big-12 Championship game on a down note. Last week, Missouri went to Kansas City for their annual meeting against Kansas and were upset by the Jayhawks 40-37. The Tigers are now 9-3 and ranked 20th in the BCS. Still the Sooners can’t overlook their opponent because the Tigers have plenty of weapons. QB Chase Daniel has completed over 75% of his passes this year for 3880 yards, 34 TDs and just 13 ints. Daniel’s favorite target is the speedy sophomore WR Jeremy Maclin. For the season Maclin has 88 catches for 1175 yards and 11 TDs. He also has ran for 248 yards and 2 more scores. Senior TE Chase Coffman has also caught 79 passes for 872 yards and 9 TDs. Defensively the Tigers have given up less points than Oklahoma. They give up just over 24 points per game, while scoring 45.
When you talk about the Sooners, you have to start with their play caller also. Sophomore QB Sam Bradford has put up Heisman numbers this year. For the season he is completing over 68% of his passes for 4080 yards, 46 TDs and only 6 ints. Around Bradford, there are plenty of weapons. Sophomore RB DeMarco Murray leads the team in rushing with 1002 yards and 14 TDs. He also has caught 31 passes for 395 yards and 4 more scores. Right behind Murray is Junior Chris Brown, who has run for 988 yards and 17 TDs. Bradford has plenty of targets to throw to also. 6 different players have 24 catches or more, more than 395 yards and at least 2 TDs. Bradford’s top two targets are Senior WR Juaquin Iglesias with 60 catches for 967 yards and 8 TDs and Junior TE Jermaine Gresham with 50 catches for 806 yards and 12 TDs. Manuel Johnson is also a very dangerous weapon. Johnson missed a couple games due to injury, but still caught 37 passes for 677 yards and 9 TDs. He has caught only 5 passes over the Sooners last 6 games. The Sooner defense took a big blow last week when Sophomore LB Austin Box hurt his knee. He will more than likely miss this week’s contest.
I know that the total is very high here, but the way both of these teams can score and how the Big-12 has been lighting up the scoreboard all season long, I say take the OVER here also.
Nelly
Arizona State + over Arizona
The Sun Devils have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation as many expected this team to contend for the Pac-10 title. The Wildcats have been accustomed to disappointing seasons but this year Arizona broke through to reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 1998. Arizona is averaging 37 points scored per game but those numbers are a bit inflated based on a few blowout wins. The Wildcats have now lost three of the last four games and only one win this season came against a winning team. Arizona State has plenty to play for as a three-game win streak quietly has the Sun Devils back in the mix for a possible bowl game. The Sun Devil defense has allowed just 28 points in the last three games and ASU has won each of the last three meetings in this series by narrow margins. There is more at stake for Arizona State and given the close recent history of this series the underdog looks promising as these teams have had very similar results.
DUNKEL INDEX
Game 109-110: Navy vs. Army
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 85.474; Army 75.905
Dunkel Line: Navy by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 11; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (+11); Over
Game 111-112: Pittsburgh at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 95.412; Connecticut 92.176
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Over
Game 113-114: South Florida at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 85.325; West Virginia 98.580
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 13; 52
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-7); Over
Game 115-116: Washington at California
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 70.012; California 106.521
Dunkel Line: California by 36 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: California by 35 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-35 1/2); Over
Game 117-118: USC at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: USC 118.648; UCLA 89.926
Dunkel Line: USC by 28 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: USC by 33; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+33); Over
Game 119-120: Arizona State at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 92.864; Arizona 101.448
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+10 1/2); Under
Game 121-122: Cincinnati at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 92.403; Hawaii 87.733
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+7); Under
Game 123-124: Arkansas State at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 75.200; Troy 88.759
Dunkel Line: Troy by 13 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Troy by 11; 54
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-11); Over
Game 125-126: Western Kentucky at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 65.483; Florida International 78.935
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 13 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Florida International by 8; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-8); Under
Game 127-128: East Carolina at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 84.452; Tulsa 93.708
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 9; 73
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 12 1/2; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+12 1/2); Over
Game 129-130: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 97.699; Virginia Tech 92.671
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Pick; 39
Dunkel Pick: Boston College; Over
Game 131-132: Alabama vs. Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 107.067; Florida 120.543
Dunkel Line: Florida by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Florida by 9 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-9 1/2); Under
Game 133-134: Missouri vs. Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 102.897; Oklahoma 122.076
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 19; 85
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 17; 79
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-17); Over
SPORTS ADVISORS
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(2) Florida (11-1, 10-1 ATS) vs. (1) Alabama (12-0, 9-3 ATS) (at Atlanta)
The much-anticipated SEC Championship game also serves as a national-championship elimination match, as second-ranked Florida meets top-ranked and unbeaten Alabama at the Georgia Dome.
Since suffering a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, the Gators have ripped off eight straight wins (7-0 ATS in lined games), scoring at least 38 points in all eight contests, including 42 or more seven times. Last week, they routed Florida State 45-15, easily covering as a 15½-point road favorite. Florida had 502 total yards (317 rushing) and gave up 242 (102 rushing), but electrifying RB/WR Percy Harvin went out in the first half with an ankle injury. Harvin (595 receiving yards, 538 rushing yards, 16 total TDs) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game.
In just the second season of the Nick Saban era, Alabama cruised to its first SEC West championship since 1999 and capped its first perfect regular season since 1994 with last Saturday’s 36-0 rout of archrival Auburn as a 14½-point home favorite. In snapping a six-game losing skid to Auburn, the Crimson Tide had significant advantages in total offense (412-170), rushing yards (234-57), first downs (21-8) and time of possession (35:37-24:23), and they won the turnover battle 3-0.
Not including a non-lined 70-19 rout of Division II The Citadel, Florida has outscored its seven other opponents 344-78 during its current winning streak. The Gators have also outgained eight of their last nine foes by at least 118 yards, and all 11 of their victories this year have come by at least 23 points.
Alabama won nine of its 12 games by double digits, allowing 21 points or fewer 11 times and holding seven foes to 10 points or less. The Tide also produced at least 20 points in all but one game, scoring 24 or more 10 times, including in each of their last six contests.
These schools last met in 2006, with Florida winning 28-13 but coming up just short as a 16½-point favorite, making Alabama 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, all as an underdog. That includes the Tide’s 34-7 rout of the Gators as a seven-point underdog in the 1999 SEC Championship game.
Alabama ranks third in the nation in scoring defense (11.5 ppg), third in total defense (248.5 ypg), tied for second in rushing defense (73.6 ypg) and first in rushing TDs allowed (3). Offensively, the Crimson Tide put up 32.1 points and 370.8 yards per game (201.5 rushing ypg). Senior QB John Parker Wilson has completed 58.6 percent of his passes for 1,909 yards with nine TDs and five INTs.
Florida averages 46.3 ppg, which rates third in the nation, and 449.4 total yards per game, including 237.1 rushing ypg (10th in the nation). The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has passed for 2,299 yards with 25 TDs and two INTs, and he’s also rushed for 507 yards and 12 scores. Defensively, Urban Meyer’s squad gives up just 12.3 ppg (4th) and 275.7 total ypg (7th), and they’ve allowed just 10 TD passes while notching 23 interceptions, the second highest total in the nation.
In addition to their 10-1 ATS run this year, the Gators are on pointspread streaks of 19-7 overall, 6-0 in SEC play and 14-3 against winning teams. Also, Florida is 5-0 SU and ATS away from home. Meanwhile, Alabama is on pointspread streaks of 5-0 overall (4-0 against the SEC) and 4-1 against winning teams, and the Tide are also 5-0 SU and ATS away from Tuscaloosa, including two outright upsets as an underdog.
Florida is riding over streaks of 19-7 overall (6-0 last six), 5-0 at a neutral site and 16-5 against winning teams. Conversely, the under is 6-1 in Alabama’s last seven overall (5-1 in SEC play).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(19) Missouri (9-3, 5-6 ATS) vs. (4) Oklahoma (11-1, 9-2 ATS) (at Kansas City, Mo.)
Oklahoma meets Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game for the second straight year, with the Sooners likely punching a ticket to the BCS Championship game if they can secure another win over the Tigers, this time at Arrowhead Stadium.
Oklahoma has gotten back into the national championship picture with six straight wins (5-1 ATS) since a 45-35 upset loss to Texas on Oct. 11. During their winning streak, the Sooners have averaged 59.5 ppg, including scoring 61 or more in each of their last four contests. Last week at No. 11 Oklahoma State, Oklahoma rolled to a 61-41 victory as a nine-point favorite, breaking open a 21-13 halftime lead by scoring 40 second-half points. The Sooners had a 557-452 advantage in total offense, with QB Sam Bradford going 30-for-44 for 370 yards, four TDs and no picks.
The Sooners earned the right to play in this game despite finishing in a three-way tie with Texas and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South standings. Those three teams went 1-1 against each other, and the division champ was decided by the BCS standings, with Oklahoma narrowly edging Texas.
Missouri clinched the Big 12 North title two weeks ago, then went out and suffered a tough 40-37 last-second loss to Kansas as a 16-point favorite at Arrowhead Stadium. The Tigers fell behind 19-7 late in the second quarter, but rallied back and took a 37-33 lead with 1:50 to go, but allowed the Jayhawks to march down the field and complete a 26-yard game-winning TD pass on fourth down with just 27 seconds to play. Missouri, which had 478 total yards, had a four-game winning streak halted in the loss and fell to 2-5 ATS in its last seven.
The Sooners beat the Tigers twice last year, winning 41-31 at home but failing to cover as a 13½-point favorite, then rolling 38-17 as a three-point chalk in the Big 12 Championship game at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Oklahoma has won the last six meetings in this rivalry since 1999, going just 3-3 ATS. The underdog has cashed in six of the last eight meetings, including four of the last five.
Oklahoma, which has scored at least 35 points in every game this season, leads the nation in scoring offense (53.3 ppg) and ranks third in both total offense (556.7 ypg) and passing offense (354.3 ypg). The Sooners also rush for 202.4 ypg (4.7 per carry). Bradford has been phenomenal all year, completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 4,080 yards (third in the nation) with an NCAA-best 46 TDs and just six INTs.
The Tigers have scored more than 30 points in 11 of their 12 games, and they put up 45 points and 509.4 total yards per game, including 165.2 ypg on the ground (5.5 yards per carry). Senior QB Chase Daniel completes an NCAA-best 75.4 percent of his throws for 3,880 yards with 34 TDs and 13 INTs, but 12 of those picks have come in the last seven games.
Both teams are virtually even defensively, with Missouri allowing 24.7 points and 397.3 yards per game (119.7 rushing ypg) and Oklahoma surrendering 24.8 points and 359.5 yards per outing (109.8 rushing ypg). However, the Sooners have allowed 24 or more in six of their last seven contests, while the Tigers have held seven of 12 foes to 24 points or fewer.
Mizzou is in pointspread slumps of 2-5 overall (all in Big 12 play), 2-5 in December and 2-5 on grass, but the Tigers are on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 at neutral sties, 7-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a SU loss. Oklahoma is on ATS runs of 5-1 on grass, 4-0 in December, 4-0 against winning teams and 19-7 after a spread-cover.
For Oklahoma, the over is on runs of 11-1 overall, 8-0 in Big 12 play and 4-0 on grass, and the Tigers have topped the total in their last two games. However, the Sooners have stayed under in eight straight games in December, and the under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(18) Boston College (9-3, 7-4 ATS) vs. Virginia Tech (8-4, 4-7 ATS) (at Tampa, Fla.)
Virginia Tech and Boston College clash for the second time in six weeks and for the second straight year in the ACC Championship Game, this time at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
The Eagles trailed Virginia Tech 10-0 early in the first quarter back on Oct. 18 at Boston College, but scored 21 unanswered points en route to a 28-23 victory as a three-point home favorite. Boston College finished with a 300-240 edge in total offense and a 22-14 advantage in first downs, but the Eagles committed five turnovers, including two interceptions that were returned for Va-Tech’s only two touchdowns.
Going back to their days in the Big East, Virginia Tech has won six of the last 10 meetings, but Boston College is 8-2 ATS during this stretch, and the Eagles were underdogs in the first nine of those games before being a home favorite in October. Going back to 2006, B.C. is 3-1 SU and ATS against the Hokies, but the loss came in last year’s ACC Championship Game in Jacksonville (30-16 as a five-point underdog). Finally, the SU winner has covered in each of the last six battles in this rivalry.
Following the win over the Hokies in October, Boston College lost consecutive games at North Carolina and at home to Clemson before closing the regular season on a 4-0 SU and ATS streak. The Eagles wrapped up the ACC’s Atlantic Division title with Saturday’s 28-21 over Maryland, barely cashing as a 6½-point home favorite. B.C. rushed for 175 yards and held the Terps to minus-4 net yards on the ground.
Virginia Tech split its final six games, but won the last two over Duke (14-3 on Nov. 22) and Virginia (17-14 last week) to clinch its second straight Coastal Division title and earn a chance to defend its ACC championship. However, the Hokies failed to cover in both wins, including as a seven-point favorite against Virginia, dropping to 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. Last Saturday, Va-Tech outscored the Cavaliers 10-0 in the second half and finished with a 392-249 total yardage edge.
Both teams finished tied for first in their respective divisions at 5-3, but the Eagles (4-4 ATS in the ACC) won the tiebreaker over Florida State and Virginia Tech (3-5 ATS in the ACC) held the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech.
The Eagles rate the edge on offense, averaging 26.7 points and 319.8 total yards per game (151.7 rushing ypg), while Virginia Tech nets 21.6 points and 301.7 yards per contest (169.8 rushing ypg). Defensively, both squads rank in the Top 16 nationally in points and yards allowed, with Boston College giving up 17.6 points and 276.6 yards per game (87.3 rushing ypg) and the Hokies yielding 17.9 points and 274.6 total yards per outing (112.2 rushing ypg).
Boston College first-string QB Chris Crane suffered a season-ending injury on Nov. 15 against Florida State, leaving the offense in the hands of redshirt freshman Domonique Davis, who has thrown for 288 yards with three TDs and no INTs on the season. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has switched between versatile sophomore Tyrod Taylor and senior drop-back passer Sean Glennon at quarterback, with the duo combining for 1,555 passing yards and just five TDs against 10 INTs.
In addition to cashing in its last four games, Boston College is 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams, but 1-6 ATS in its last seven after a spread-cover. As for the Hokies, they’re on ATS slides of 2-5 overall and 3-7 when playing on grass, but they’re 26-11 ATS in their last 37 conference games and 17-4 SU and ATS in their last 21 ACC contests on the highway (but 1-3 this year).
These teams had stayed under the total in four straight meetings before this year’s contest easily topped the 40-point total. Also, the over is 7-2 in Boston College’s last nine overall (6-1 in league play), but otherwise the under is on streaks of 12-5 for the Eagles on grass, 4-0 for Virginia Tech overall (all in conference) and 7-2 for Va-Tech after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
East Carolina (8-4, 4-8 ATS) at Tulsa (10-2, 7-4 ATS)
Tulsa returns to the Conference USA title game for the third time in the last four years, this time battling East Carolina on its home field at Chapman Stadium.
The Golden Hurricane wrapped up the West Division title with last week’s 38-35 victory at Marshall, coming up way short as a 16-point favorite despite outgaining the Thundering Herd 516-437. Tulsa finished tied with Rice in the West Division at 7-1 (4-3 ATS), but won the tiebreaker based on a 63-28 rout of the Owls back on Oct. 4.
East Carolina closed the conference season on a 5-1 run, including last Friday’s 53-21 rout of UTEP, covering as a 6½-point home favorite to halt an 0-4 ATS slump. The Pirates finished 6-2 in Conference USA action (2-6 ATS), winning the East Division by two games over Memphis and Southern Miss.
This marks East Carolina’s first appearance in the Conference USA championship game. Meanwhile, Tulsa beat Central Florida 44-27 for the 2005 conference title, but last year when the same teams met, the Golden Hurricane got rolled by a near identical score, falling 44-25 as a 7½-point underdog.
These schools have faced off twice in Conference USA action, with Tulsa winning both games easily, 45-13 as a 9½-point home favorite in 2005 and 31-10 as a three-point road chalk in 2006. Going back to 1985, the Hurricane are 4-2 SU and ATS against East Carolina, with the favorite cashing in each of the last three meetings.
Tulsa fields one of the nation’s most prolific offenses, averaging 49.3 points, 578.9 total yards, 259.1 rushing yards and 319.8 passing yards per game, figures that rank second, first, seventh and sixth in the nation. At home, the Hurricane put up 60.5 points and 607.2 total yards per game. Senior QB David Johnson has been outstanding, completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,671 yards with 42 TDs and 13 INTs.
East Carolina hadn’t scored more than 30 points all year before last week’s 53-point effort at UTEP, and the Pirates have been limited to 20 or less five times in their last seven games. For the season, Skip Holtz’s team is putting up 23.5 points and 332 total yards per game, with QB Patrick Pickney (64.4 percent, 2,257 yards, 11 TDs, 7 INTs) having an up-and-down senior season.
The Golden Hurricane have struggled defensively, giving up 29.2 points and 401.8 yards per game (270.2 passing ypg), with five of the last seven opponents scoring at least 30 points against Tulsa. Meanwhile, East Carolina’s D surrenders just 20.5 points and 330 yards per outing, holding its last six foes to an average of 15.2 ppg.
East Carolina was one of the hottest spread-covering teams coming into this season, but the Pirates are now stuck in ATS slumps of 2-8 overall, 0-6 on the highway, 1-4 in C-USA play and 2-5 on artificial turf, but they’re still 19-7 ATS as an underdog since Holtz arrived in 2005. Meanwhile, Tulsa is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against winning teams, but the Hurricane have cashed in seven straight home games.
The under is 5-1 in East Carolina’s last six games overall (all in conference play), but otherwise the over is on runs of 4-1 for the Pirates in December, 4-1 for the Pirates against winning teams and 7-1-2 for Tulsa on artificial turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA
(5) USC (10-1, 6-4-1 ATS) at UCLA (4-7, 6-5 ATS)
USC heads up the road to Pasadena for its annual showdown with UCLA, needing a victory over the lowly Bruins to win the Pac-10 Championship and earn a Rose Bowl berth for the fifth time in six years and keep their slim BCS Championship Game hopes alive.
The Trojans crushed Notre Dame 38-3 last week for their eighth consecutive victory, seven of them by two touchdowns or more. USC barely covered as a 32-point home favorite, but is still just 4-3-1 ATS during its winning steak. QB Mark Sanchez went 22-for-31 for 267 yards, two TDs and two INTs as USC produced 449 yards of total offense, but it was the top-ranked Trojans defense that stole the show again, limiting the Irish to 91 total yards and just three first downs, the first of which came on the final play of the third quarter.
UCLA jumped out to a 3-0 lead at Arizona last week, but its offense completely fell apart from there, committing four turnovers, all of which were returned for touchdowns in a 34-9 loss as a 10-point road underdog. The Bruins actually had big edges of 303-121 in total offense (88-20 in rushing) and 17-10 in first downs, but couldn’t overcome the offensive miscues. UCLA has followed up a 4-0 ATS run by going 1-3 ATS in its last four.
USC had little trouble with the Bruins last year, winning 24-7, but failing to cover as a 19½-point home favorite despite a 437-168 advantage in total offense. The Trojans have won eight of the last nine meetings in this battle for Southern California bragging rights, but UCLA is 3-1 ATS the last four years, including a 13-9 upset as a 10½-point home underdog in the most recent battle at the Rose Bowl in 2006. Finally, the host has cashed in four of the last five series meetings.
The Trojans continue to lead the nation in scoring defense (7.8 ppg allowed), total defense (210.5 ypg), passing defense (124 ypg) and passing TDs allowed (3), and Pete Carroll’s D also is fifth nationally in rushing yards allowed (86.5 per game). Today, that stop unit goes up against a Bruins’ offense that is one of the worst in the nation, averaging just 18.6 points and 295 total yards per game (86.3 rushing ypg). Also, UCLA’s 20 interceptions thrown are tied for the fourth most in the country, while USC has picked off 16 passes.
USC enjoys a significant edge at quarterback, with Sanchez completing 65.4 percent of his passes for 2,525 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs, while UCLA’s Kevin Craft connects on just 56.8 percent of his throws for 2,251 yards with more than twice as many INTs (19) as TDs (7).
The Trojans have not covered the spread in consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2, going 0-4 ATS in their last four after a spread-cover, and they’re also in ATS ruts of 2-5 in December 5-11 as a double-digit favorite and 5-11 in Pac-10 roadies. Meanwhile, UCLA actually enjoys a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 20-7 at home, 15-6 in Pac-10 play, 18-8 on grass, 14-5 after an ATS setback, 19-7 after a SU defeat, 14-4 against winning teams and 4-1 in December.
For USC, the under is on stretches of 21-8-1 overall, 21-6-1 in Pac-10 play, 21-6-1 on grass and 7-1-1 against losing teams. UCLA also is on “under” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 8-2 at the Rose Bowl, 9-1-1 in conference play, 20-8 on grass, 4-0 after a SU loss and 7-3 in December. Lastly, the under is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-0 at UCLA).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and UNDER
Navy (7-4, 5-5 ATS) vs. Army (3-8, 6-4 ATS) (at Philadelphia)
Navy shoots for its seventh straight victory over Army and sixth Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy in a row when the Midshipmen take on the Black Knights in this annual rivalry game in Philadelphia.
Navy, which has already qualified for a bowl, is gunning for its eighth win this season, and the Middies have gotten stronger as the season has gone on, winning six of their last eight (5-3 ATS). Most recently, they went on the road and blanked Northern Illinois 16-0 on Nov. 25, cashing as three-point ‘dogs.
Coach Ken Niumatalolo is uncertain who will start at QB for the Middies, either Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada or sophomore Ricky Dobbs. Dobbs got his first career start in the win over Northern Illinois and rushed for 122 yards and a TD. Navy leads the country with 292 yards rushing yards per game, but the Army defense hasn’t allowed more than 184 yards rushing to any team this season.
Army’s losing streak reached three with a 30-3 loss at Rutgers on Nov. 22 as 18-point underdogs. Despite that non-cover, the Black Knights have gotten the cash in six of their last eight games, and their rushing attack is ninth in the country at 254.2 yards per game.
Fullback Collin Mooney has run for 1,285 yards this season and needs 54 more yards to break the Army record for rushing yards in a season. The problem for the Black Knights has been holding onto the football, as they’ve fumbled 34 times this season, losing 23 of them, five more than any other team in the country.
The Middies are on a 5-1 ATS roll during their six-game winning streak against Army, and they’ve outscored the Black Nights 240-71 in this run. Last year, Navy rolled to 38-3 victory as 14-point favorites, outrushing Army 287-217 and forcing three fumbles, two of which the Middies recovered.
Navy is on several positive ATS streaks, including 9-3 at neutral sites, 7-1 in December, 12-5 after a week off and 45-21-1 against teams with a losing record. Army is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a straight-up loss, but otherwise the Knights are on ATS slides of 1-5 in December and 4-17 after a bye week.
The Middies are on “over” runs of 9-3 in neutral-site games, 6-2 in December and 7-1 coming off a spread-cover. On the flip side, Army has stayed under the total in six straight after a bye week and five of its last seven after a straight-up loss. Finally, the last two Army-Navy clashes were “unders.”
ATS ADVANTAGE: NAVY
(23) Pittsburgh (8-3, 5-5 ATS) at Connecticut (7-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Panthers wrap up their Big East season in East Hartford, Conn., against the Huskies in what is essentially a meaningless contest for two teams headed to bowl games.
Pitt eliminated West Virginia from Big East title contention – and helped Cincinnati win the league crown – with last week’s 19-15 win over the Mountaineers as a three-point home ‘dog. The Panthers are looking for their first nine-win season in 26 years, and they’ll need another big game from star RB LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 183 yards and two scores against West Virginia. McCoy has rushed for 140 yards or more six times this season and he’s got 35 TDs in two seasons in Pittsburgh. But it’s the Panthers defense that has played better of late, allowing 15 points or less in two of the last three games (2-1 ATS).
UConn has lost two of its last three, including a 17-13 setback at South Florida on Nov. 23, coming up just short as a three-point ‘dog. QB Tyler Lorenzen returned to the lineup after being sidelined him for four games with a broken foot, and he threw for 119 yards and a TD but suffered his first loss in seven starts this season. RB Donald Brown has been doing the damage for the Huskies lately, rushing for 727 yards and five TDs in their last six games.
Lorenzen threw for 174 yards and the defense forced six turnovers in UConn’s 34-14 win last year, with the Huskies easily cashing as 7½-point favorites. UConn has taken three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (SU and ATS), including a thrilling 46-45 double-overtime home victory in 2005 as a seven-point underdog.
Pitt is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a bye week, but the Panthers are on positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-2 on the road, 7-2 as an underdog and 5-1 against teams with a winning record. UConn is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 against teams with a winning record, but the Huskies are riding ATS runs of 7-2 at home, 9-4 in conference play, 11-5 on grass, 4-0 after a week off and 14-3 following an ATS setback.
The Panthers have topped the total in four of their last five on the road and 10 of their last 14 on grass. The Huskies have gone over the number in each of their last four home games, and the over has been the play in the last two meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
South Florida (7-4, 3-7 ATS) at West Virginia (7-4, 4-6 ATS)
A week after getting knocked out of contention for the Big East crown, West Virginia tries to regroup for the regular-season finale against South Florida in Morgantown, W.V.
The Bulls snapped a three-game losing streak on Nov. 23 with a 17-13 win over UConn as a three-point home favorite, despite being held to 247 total yards. QB Matt Grothe plays his final regular-season game for South Florida, and this year he’s thrown for 2,486 yards, 15 TDs and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 458 yards and three additional scores.
West Virginia lost all hope for a Big East title when it fell 19-15 at Pitt a week ago as a three-point favorite. The Mountaineers drove the ball inside the Pitt 30-yard-line inside the final 30 seconds but failed to get the ball in the end zone. All-everything QB Patrick White threw for 143 yards and rushed for 93 against the Panthers.
White this season has 1,369 passing yards, 879 rushing yards, 17 passing TDs, seven rushing TDs and six interceptions. He’s the school’s No. 2 all-time rusher with 4,385 yards, and he’s the NCAA’s all-time leader among QBs in rushing yardage.
South Florida has pulled off back-to-back upsets against the Mountaineers the last two seasons, winning 24-19 in Morgantown in 2006 as a 21-point ‘dog, then scoring a 21-13 home win last year as a seven-point pup. The Bulls gave up 437 yards a season ago, but took advantage of six turnovers, including one interception by White, who was knocked out of the contest in the second quarter.
The Bulls have had trouble getting the cash lately, going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five on the highway, 1-4 ATS in their last five December contests and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover, but they are in mired in pointspread slumps of 3-7 on turf and 2-5 in Big East contests.
For South Florida, the over is 9-3 in its last 12 after a straight-up win and 5-2 in its last seven after a spread-cover. West Virginia has topped the total in 15 of its last 22 home games, four of its last five overall and five of its last seven in December. Conversely, in this budding rivalry, the under has been the play in each of the last three seasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Arizona State (5-6, 4-5 ATS) at Arizona (6-5 SU and ATS)
Even after suffering their longest losing streak since 1929, the Sun Devils can become bowl eligible with a win against in-state rival Arizona today in Tucson.
Arizona State was riding high in mid-September, ranked in the Top 25 and waiting on preseason No. 1 Georgia to arrive in Tempe. But an upset loss to UNLV the week before the Georgia contest sent the Sun Devils into what would become a six-game tailspin (2-4 ATS). But since a 27-25 loss at Oregon State on Nov. 1, ASU has won three in a row, outscoring the opposition 104-28. That includes last week’s 34-9 rout of UCLA as a 9½-point home favorite, with the Sun Devils’ defense equaling an NCAA record with four turnovers returned for touchdowns.
Senior QB Rudy Carpenter will try to become the first Arizona State quarterback in the 82-year history of this rivalry to go a perfect 4-0 against Arizona. In the previous three wins, Carpenter has gone 55-for-99 for 707 yards, five TDs and one interception.
Arizona has already qualified for a postseason game, despite losing three of its last four both SU and ATS. The Wildcats haven’t been on the gridiron since Nov. 22 when they blew a 17-16 lead in the final minute against Oregon State and lost 19-17 as 3½-point favorites. Mike Stoops’ squad relies on its rushing attack, with Nic Grigsby closing in on a 1,000-yard season and Keola Antolin rushing for 10 TDs.
Arizona State has won three straight (1-2 ATS) and eight of 10 (6-4 ATS) in this heated rivalry, including last year’s 20-17 home victory, coming up short as a seven-point favorite. The visitor is on a 10-3 ATS roll in this series, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 (4-0 the last four years) and the Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tucson.
The Sun Devils are on ATS slides of 4-10 overall, 3-8 on grass, 2-7 against teams with a winning record, 0-4 in December contests and 0-4 after a spread-cover. Arizona is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 matchups against a team with a losing record, but the Wildcats are on positive spread streaks of 7-1 at home, 5-1 after a bye week, 9-3 on grass and 5-2 after a non-cover.
For ASU, the under is on stretches of 8-1 on the road, 7-3 in December, 5-1 on grass, 5-2 after a bye week and 11-5 after a straight-up win. Arizona has stayed under the total in 25 of its last 40 home games and 17 of its last 24 on grass. Lastly, the under is 6-1 in the last seven clashes between these two rivals (3-1 in Tucson).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
N.C. State (4-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. (22) Davidson (5-1, 3-1 ATS) (at Charlotte, N.C.)
Player of the Year candidate Stephen Curry, coming off the first scoreless game of his career, leads 22nd-ranked Davidson against North Carolina State in this intersectional rivalry.
Curry went 0-for-3 from the field and didn’t even get to the foul line in his team’s 78-48 rout of Loyola-Maryland back on Nov. 25, cashing as a 25-point favorite. Curry, who is still leading the nation with 29.2 points per game, was the victim of a constant double-team, but his teammates picked up the slack as the Wildcats rolled to their third consecutive victory, all by double digits.
N.C. State has taken advantage of weak schedule in jumping out to a 4-0 start, the last three coming by margins of 13, 26 and 27 points. The Wolf Pack got off to a solid start last year before the ACC campaign began, winning 11 of their first 14 games, but they closed the season on a nine-game losing skid. Also, despite cashing as an 18-point favorite in Sunday’s 79-52 home rout of UNC-Greensboro, N.C. State is just 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games overall.
The Wolfpack have dominated Davidson over the years, going 69-13 all-time and winning 36 of the last 37 matchups. Last year, North Carolina State overcame a 29-point effort from Curry to eke out a 66-65 victory, but the Wildcats covered as a two-point road underdog. Also, following that defeat, Davidson ripped off a 25-game winning streak that carried the team all the way to the Final Four.
In addition to its ongoing 6-22-1 ATS slump, N.C. State is mired in pointspread ruts of 3-9 in non-conference play, 1-4 on Saturdays, 1-4 against Southern Conference foes, 0-6 after a spread-cover and 1-7 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Wildcats are on pointspread streaks of 47-20-1 overall, 10-1 in non-conference play, 5-0 at neutral sites, 40-17-2 on Saturdays, 45-17-1 after a SU win and 11-4 after a victory of more than 20 points.
The Wolfpack are on “over” streaks of 18-7 overall, 6-2 in non-conference play, 10-1 after a SU win, 5-0 after a non-cover, 20-7 on Saturdays and 5-2 against Southern Conference foes. However, Davidson is in the midst of under tears of 7-1 on Saturdays, 10-1 against the ACC and 23-11 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DAVIDSON
(5) Gonzaga (5-0, 4-0 ATS) vs. Indiana (4-3, 1-3 ATS) (at Indianapolis)
Gonzaga takes its perfect record to Indianapolis for a matchup against struggling Indiana in the Hall of Fame Showcase in the first-ever basketball game at new Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Bulldogs are coming off an 83-74 spanking of then-No. 12 Tennessee in Sunday’s championship game of the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. Gonzaga, which posted double-digit wins over Oklahoma State and Maryland in the first two rounds of the Classic, covered as a two-point favorite against the Vols to keep its perfect spread record intact, all as a favorite. The Bulldogs are averaging 81.8 points per game against Division I opponents (49 percent shooting) and allowing just 62.5 ppg (35.4 percent shooting).
Indiana, which will be playing this game 50 miles from its campus in Bloomington, returns to its home state after Wednesday’s 83-58 loss at 15th-ranked Wake Forest in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, coming up short as a 22-point road underdog. The Hoosiers’ three losses to Wake Forest, St. Joe’s and Notre Dame have come by margins of 25, 36 and 38 points, respectively, and they averaged just 54 ppg in those three contests.
These schools squared off in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments in 2006 and 2007, with Gonzaga winning the first clash 90-80 as a 3½-point favorite and the Hoosiers taking the rematch 70-57 as a 1½-point chalk.
Gonzaga is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games on Saturdays, 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a spread-cover. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss of more than 20 points, but otherwise the Hoosiers are on ATS skids of 1-6 overall, 0-5 at neutral sites, 1-5 in non-conference games and 3-10 after a defeat.
The over is 20-6 in Gonzaga’s last 26 games on Saturdays and 4-1 in its last five against the Big Ten. However, the under is on stretches of 4-0 for the Bulldogs overall (all in non-conference play), 5-2 for Indiana overall and 7-2 for Indiana at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA
(4) Duke (8-0, 5-3 ATS) at Michigan (5-2, 4-1 ATS)
Duke and Michigan square off for the second time in less than three weeks, this time at Crisler Arena on the Wolverines’ campus in Ann Arbor.
The Blue Devils routed Michigan 71-56 as a 13½-point favorite on Nov. 21 in the finals of the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic at Madison Square Garden. Duke has won seven straight meetings in this rivalry dating to 1998, going 6-1 ATS, and that includes two wins and covers in Ann Arbor in 1999 and 2001. The Blue Devils have won the last five against Michigan by an average of 25.8 ppg.
This is Duke’s second straight road game against a Big Ten foe, having crushed ninth-ranked Purdue 76-60 as a two-point underdog on Tuesday in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The Blue Devils shot just 42.1 percent from the field, but held Purdue to 37.3 percent shooting and finished with a 44-26 rebounding edge en route to their seventh double-digit victory in eight wins this year. Mike Krzyzewski’s squad is averaging 82.8 points per game (47 percent shooting) and allowing 60.8 ppg (38.1 percent).
The Wolverines followed up last month’s loss to Duke in New York with consecutive home wins over Division II foes Norfolk State (83-49) and Savannah State (66-64 in overtime). However, Michigan then traveled to Maryland on Wednesday and lost 75-70 in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge contest, but barely got the cash as a five-point underdog.
Duke is 5-0 SU and ATS against Big Ten teams since the start of last year, with all five victories coming by 13 points or more. Additionally, the Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall (all in non-conference play), but 0-4 ATS in their last four games on Saturday. Meanwhile, Michigan is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home, but otherwise the Wolverines are in pointspread slumps of 3-10 in non-league games, 1-5 against the ACC and 9-20 on Saturdays.
For Duke, the under is on runs of 11-3 overall, 35-17 in non-conference games, 8-3 after a SU win, 7-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 on Saturdays, but the over is 6-2 in its last eight on the road. For Michigan, the under is on streaks of 9-2 overall, 5-2 on Saturdays and 6-0 after a SU defeat, but the over is 6-1 in the Wolverines’ last seven against the ACC. Finally, the over is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these schools (2-0 at Michigan), though last month’s contest stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
Ohio State (4-0, 2-1 ATS) vs. (7) Notre Dame (6-1, 3-2 ATS) (at Indianapolis)
Ohio State goes for its 10th straight win when it makes the short trek to Indianapolis to battle Notre Dame in the Hall of Fame Showcase at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Buckeyes rallied from a 14-point halftime deficit at Miami, Fla. on Tuesday and beat the 21st-ranked Hurricanes 73-68 as an eight-point underdog. Ohio State is 7-1 ATS in lined contests during its nine-game winning streak, which dates back to the start of last year’s postseason NIT, which the school won. Thad Matta’s club is averaging only 65.8 ppg against Division I foes (43.6 percent), but holding the opposition to just 47.2 ppg (34 percent).
Notre Dame fell 102-87 to top-ranked North Carolina as a 10½-point underdog in the Maui Invitational championship game on Nov. 26, but the Irish returned home this week and pounded Furman 96-61 as a 26-point chalk and South Dakota 102-76 in a non-lined affair. Notre Dame has scored at least 81 points in six of its seven contests, while holding four opponents to 61 or less.
The most recent meeting on the basketball court between these schools came in 1999, with the Irish prevailing 59-57 as a 14½-point underdog.
In addition to its 7-1 ATS run overall, the Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Notre Dame is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight contests against the Big Ten, but is 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory and 2-5 ATS in its last seven on Saturdays.
The Irish are on “over” streaks of 16-6 overall, 20-8 on Saturdays and 13-4 after a victory. Also, the over is 4-1 in Ohio State’s last five overall and 8-3 in its last 11 at neutral sites, but the under is 35-16-1 in the Buckeyes’ last 52 games on Saturday and 5-0 in their last five versus the Big East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
Wisconsin (6-1, 3-3 ATS) at (25) Marquette (6-1, 2-2 ATS)
Wisconsin and Marquette continue their annual in-state rivalry, with the Badgers making the quick trip to the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.
Wisconsin is coming off Monday’s 74-72 victory at Virginia Tech as a three-point road underdog in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, the team’s second straight win since suffering its first defeat of the season (76-57 to UConn). Both the Badgers and Hokies shot 50 percent from the field, with Wisconsin’s Trevon Hughes hitting a short shot in the lane with less than a second left to pull out the victory.
The Golden Eagles rebounded from their first loss of the season – last Saturday’s 89-75 defeat to Dayton in Chicago as a nine-point chalk – with Tuesday’s 81-67 rout of Central Michigan, but they came up short as a 22-point home favorite. Marquette has scored at least 73 points in every game this year, averaging 86.3 ppg on 45.1 percent shooting, but today the Eagles face a Wisconsin defense allowing just 60.3 ppg (43.6 percent shooting).
Marquette went to Madison, Wis., a year ago and upset the Badgers 81-76 as a 4½-point road underdog, avenging a 70-66 home loss to Wisconsin in 2006. Prior to those two results, the home team had won five straight meetings in this rivalry (4-1 ATS). The Golden Eagles are now 4-2 ATS in the last six series clashes, and the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine.
Wisconsin’s ATS runs include 12-5 overall, 11-4 after a victory and 5-1 on the road, but the Badgers have failed to cash in nine of their last 13 games on Saturday. Marquette is also 12-5 ATS in its last 17 lined games, including 8-3 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests.
The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, 7-3 in Marquette’s last 10 on the road, 6-1 in Marquette’s last seven against the Big Ten and 10-2 in Wisconsin’s last 12 on Saturday. Conversely, the over is on runs of 20-7 for Marquette on Saturdays, 5-2 for Wisconsin on the road and 4-1 for Wisconsin against the Big East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Bob Harvey
Navy -10.5
Navy looks for its sixth straight win over Army and its sixth straight Commander-In-Chief's Trophy as the two teams collide in the 109th Academy Game in Philadelpia.
Navy comes in at 7-4 and has already secured a bowl berth. The Midshipmen will face an ACC opponent in the EagleBank Bowl in Washington D.C. on December 20th. Navy should have one of its big weapons back today as senior QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has been given the green light to return. However both he and sophomore Ricky Dobbs split time in practice this week, and they are likely to share the snaps against Army. The Midshipmen are the top rushing team in the NCAA with 292 yards per game on the ground, and are fifth in the nation in turnover margin. The Army defense hasn't allowed a team to rush for more than 184 yards this season, but theyll be severely tested against this veteran Navy squad.
Army centers the game having lost three strraight to drop to 3-8. Another loss to Navy would give the Black Knights their third straight 3-9 season. Army has some pretty impresssive rushing stats as well. Since switching to the triple-option offense during the off-season, the Knights are ninth in the nation on the ground, averaing 254 yard per game. However the problem sometimes with a new system is turnovers and Army is feeling the effect. They’ve lost 23 of 34 fumbles this season and they rank a lowly 114th in the country in turnover margin. More bad news for Army. Starting quarterback Chip Bowden sprained his ankle in practice earlier in the week and is questionable for the game.
Navy opened at -10.5 on the neutral site and the number has gone up in some books to 11, 11.5 and even 12. The weather should be good for this traditional matchup. Clear skies, light wind and 30 degree tempratures are expected at kickoff.
Here are a few trends worth noting in today’s game:
Army is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games in December.
Navy is 9-3 ATS last 12 on a neutral field and 12-5 ATS following a bye week.
With both teams running the ball 80-90 percent of the time and a total at or near 40, an UNDER play might be considered as well.
No matter the records or the stats. This is a game that evokes national prides and patritotism. The sobering fact is that for many of these players, once the game is over, they’ll be headed off to war. That should keep things in perspective for all of us.
James Patrick
Miami Florida vs. Kentucky
Our Saturday selection is in NCAA College Basketball SEC action as we recommend the Miami Florida Hurricanes as they travel to Rupp Arena in Lexington to do battle with the Wildcats of UK. Flush with returning talent the Hurricanes bring back nearly 83% of their scoring and 69% of their rebounding from last season's 23 win squad that reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament. There is no substitute foe Miami's depth & experience. Coming into the Big Blue Nation after suffering a loss to Ohio State on their home court only fuels the Hurricane as we project Storm Warnings for Lexington on Saturday as a Hurricane's coming to town.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Western Kentucky
While it's the end of the road for both of these rag-tags they've both shown rays of promise this 2008 season. Florida International has managed to win 4 times as many games this season (4) than they did the previous two years combined. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky has laid the foundation for it's entry into the Sun Belt Conference next season with competitive losses in each of it's last four games (all by less than a dozen points apiece). The key to tonight game is FIU's draining overtime loss to cross-town rival FAU, a 57-51 bitter defeat in which they surrendered 28 points in the 4th quarter to send the contest to an extra stanza. The Panthers have been favored by more than 6 points twice since coming 'on board' - and they lost both games straight-up. Grab the points with the well rested Hilltoppers here tonight.
JIM FEIST
ARKANSAS STATE / TROY
Take: UNDER
This is a night game in Alabama, and the weather conditions are not great. A cold front is hitting the south and this game will be around 30 degrees and some wind. That's fine with Arkansas State (6-5), which has a strong ground game, rushing for 202 yards per contest. The running game has a pair of aces in junior RB Reggie Arnold and freshman RB Derek Lawson and Arkansas State upset Texas A&M, 18-14. They don't want to get into a high scoring shootout with the Troy State Trojan (7-4 SU/ATS) defense, so Arkansas State will look to kill the clock by running and control the football. The Trojans can win the Sun Belt conference with a Dec. 6 victory here, so the defense will be fired up. Remember this team lost just 28-10 loss at Ohio State, Troy had the edge in yards 315-309! Troy won 27-0 last season and this total is too high. Play Troy/Arkansas State Under the total.
Dave Cokin
Rhode Island @ 738 Providence
Play: URI +4'
URI-PC is one of the better college hoop rivalries around. There's never been any love lost between these two, and the Rams have always been somewhat jealous of the Friars being the team that gets the spotlight throughout most of Little Rhody. Both teams are sure to be fired up, but I feel Jim Baron has his Rams a little ahead of Keno Davis and the Friars right now. This should be a terrific game, but I'm siding with underdog URI to grab the money.
Tom Freese
DePaul at Northwestern
DePaul is 36-19 ATS after a game where they had 9 or less assists and they are 18-8 ATS on Saturday. The Blue Demons are 16-5 ATS in road games after two straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls. Northwestern is 5-14 ATS their last 19 home games and they are in a 48-19 ATS Play Against System that says to Go Against teams who are off two straight double digit home wins if they allowed 60 or less points in both games. PLAY ON DEPAUL +
Greg Daraban
UNLV at Nevada
Silver City battle in Reno tonight as these two rivals duke it out in their annual Hate Game. Rebs come in after winning over at Fresno. Reno just beat Colorado St.UNLV is led by senior G Wink Adams who can light it up.In a close one UNLV wins.Take UNLV