Ted Sevransky
Utah State @ Brigham Young
PICK: Brigham Young
Utah State is a perfect 5-0 this year, but they’ve only left Logan once all season and have been beating up on patsies. BYU will, by far, be the toughest competition that they’ve seen. That means the hole created by the graduation of WAC Player of the Year Jaycee Carroll has not yet been fully recognized by the betting marketplace. Nor has the loss of Carroll been reflected in the early season stats. Utah State has nailed an amazing 48% of their three point tries, masking many of their deficiencies and much of their inexperience.
Don’t expect the Aggies to be connecting from downtown at a 48% clip tonight against the BYU defense. The Cougars are a perfect 7-0 this year, with an experienced, veteran team poised to make a run at the ultra-competitive Mountain West title. The Cougars return their Conference Player of the Year, versatile swingman Lee Cummard, coming off a 30 point game on 12 of 13 shooting. The Cougars are big and physical in the low post, winning the rebounding battle by more than nine boards per game. And their aforementioned perimeter defense has been stellar, holding foes to 31% shooting from three point range. BYU won last year’s meeting 75-62. Expect a similar result tonight. Take BYU.
Charlie Scott
Missouri vs. Oklahoma
Play: Over 78.5
Big 12 Championship Game This total is old school Handicapping 101. In big games, look to go Under high totals, especially if like tonight the game is being played in cold weather with gusty winds. There have also been concerns about the field conditions in KC, that the grass comes up to easily, meaning players will have a tough time getting proper footing. Throw in that QB Bradford has a shoulder injury, along with a high total set at 79, means that this games pace will have to be extremely fast in order to go Over. I just don't see these teams averaging almost 3TD's a quarter tonight. OK has won the last 2 Big 12 Championship games, last year they beat Missouri 21-7, and in 2006 Ok beat Nebraska 38-17. Expect the same type of scoring Tonight !
South Florida vs. West Virginia
Play: South Florida +7
This is one of those games, that just doesn't make sense. South Florida has not been an Underdog all season, and the last time they were dogs, was in 2007 when they beat West Virginia 21-13. The game matches up pretty well for S Fla as their defense is weak vs the pass not exactly a WV strength. WV just doesn't play well vs physical teams like S Fla, I feel they are overrated and should not be laying 7 points here. I know it's going to be cold out there, but anytime you can get a Coaching mismatch like this Jim Leavitt(S FLA) vs Bill Stewart(WV) and your getting 7 points, GIVE ME THE DOG !
WUNDERDOG
Utah at Phoenix
Pick: Utah +8
When will people catch on? The Suns just aren't very good this year. Yes, they were one of the most feared offenses in the league for years. But their coach has changed, the personnel have changed, and this is an entirely different team. This team has lost four straight, two as good-sized favorites. They lost at home to Miami by 15, at home to the Nets by eight. On the season they are just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS at home! They simply should not be laying this many points, especially considering that the Jazz have their number. Utah has won seven of the last nine times these teams have met. The last time they played in Phoenix, Utah won 126-118. Deron Williams is getting back to full-strength and that's a bad sign for the rest of the league. The Jazz are 32-19 ATS since last season vs. winning teams and I like them to get this ATS win here
Columbus at Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -110
The Columbus Blue Jackets have really struggled on the road this season where they are just 3-8 in their last 11, after a season- opening road win. Making the long trip to the West Coast surely isn't going to help matters as they are 0-6 in their last six games against the Pacific. They have also been just 15-41 in their last 56 against a team with a losing record. Despite being below .500 overall, the Kings are a plus team at home. The Kings have been strong after playing in OT on the previous day having gone 5-2 in their last seven. They are also 5-2 against the Blue Jackets at home. This is a good spot for the Kings against a Blue Jackets' team that struggles to find the win column on the road.