John Fisher
Navy vs. Wake Forest
Play: Navy +3
This is an interesting contest because these teams met in the beginning of the year. Navy defeated the Demon Deacons at their home turf 24-17. Frankly, Navy was not healthy in key positions and their defense was making adjustments on the fly. Wake Forest looks for revenge but I actually see Navy defense which has shutout their last two opponents to prevail. Navy leads the nation in rushing with almost 300yds a game as opposed to a porous Wake Forest running game at just over 100 yds a game. Kaipo and Kettani will control the ground game for Navy. Note the early start time. Military football players are used to getting up early to start a game while Wake will be off to a slow start. Look for an early Navy lead with Wake Forest making a terrific comeback only to lose it on a TO late in the forth quarter. Navy 28 Wake 27 2 STAR Note: Wake was favored by 16 a few weeks ago. Was Vegas that far off?
BYU vs. Arizona U
Play: BYU +3
BYU looked to be a BCS and possible BCS title contender. Unfortunately, someone forgot to tell the defense. After getting completly dominated against Utah and BYU and barely surviving againt UNLV BYU is playing early in this bowl game. Arizona with QB Tuitama are good but not in the BYU's offensive class. QB Max Hall is a prototype PRO QB with tremendous accuracy and timing. Arizona will score points against vanilla BYU defense but BYU's oofense will completely keep Arizona off balance. Look for the Wildcats to deflate mid-third quarter as the the COUGARS win pulling away.
LT Profits
Baltimore Ravens +4
The Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys are both coming off of huge games, with the Cowboys overwhelming the New York Giants and the Ravens falling short vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
However, we look for flip-flop performances from both teams here. After all, Dallas will have an extremely difficult time matching their defensive intensity from last week this time around, and the Baltimore defense did play more than well enough to beat the Steelers.
We think that unit will key a Baltimore upset here. After all, nobody runs on the Ravens, so Tony Romo will basically have this game entirely on his shoulders. His performance last week vs. the Giants notwithstanding, Romo had not exactly flourished in these late-season pressure situations in the past, and it is very questionable how his bad back will hold up vs. the constant pressure the Baltimore defense will bring.
On the other side of the ball, yes the Dallas defense looked great last week, but they still have many injuries in their secondary. They were able to hide this fact last week by spending as much time in the Giants backfield as the New York running backs did, but the Ravens do have a good offensive line, and as mentioned earlier, we do not expect the Cowboys to be as emotionally charged defensively as last week.
The end result of all this should be a tight, rather low scoring affair where turnovers may decide the outcome. Well, the combination of a great Baltimore defense and quite a few Romo December meltdowns in the past makes the Ravens the underdog call here.
Pick: Ravens +4
Bryan Leonard
2* Colorado State (+) over Fresno State
This matchup all comes down to motivation, the Rams have it and the Bulldogs don't. Fresno State started the season with BCS hopes as they were highly touted to be a BCS buster similar to conference mate Boise State. After an impressive road victory to open the season at Rutgers the bandwagon backers doubled. But after a highly anticipated 13-10 home loss to Wisconsin the team went into the tank. Fresno failed to cover nine straight games and 10 of 11 to end the regular season. A team that had plenty of success in the past failed to live up to their goals. Now they will be playing in their ninth bowl in the last 10 years knowing a December 20th date in Albuquerque wasn't on the preseason agenda. "We haven't had the concentration level we usually have during the week of practice," Fresno State coach Hill said. "But we'll see. We want to make sure school is taken care of first. And hopefully, by the time we get to New Mexico, we'll have two days to tighten it up for this game." That doesn't sound like a confident coach bringing an inspired team into action. The Bulldogs only had five practices and the coaches have missed time to recruit. This isn't a team that is putting this game up high on their priority list.
Colorado State on the other hand is tickled pink about playing in a bowl, their first since 2000. The team has sold virtually their entire allotment of tickets and the game is high on the priority list for new coach Fairchild, for now and in the future. Colorado State will be bolstered by returning players in the secondary, and the defense which was a problem for most of the season looks to be improving.
Fresno State has picked off just seven passes in the last two years, a simply amazing stat. That means the line just isn't getting much of a push and the defensive backs don't anticipate well. That's not good news against this solid Rams scoring unit. The Bulldogs are a horrible favorite posting a 4-20 spread mark and they simply don't deserve to lay any points here. Colorado State has the motivation and the fan and university support. Look for the energy level to be high as the Mountain West Conference continues their bowl success (9-4 straight up the past three bowl seasons).
PLAY COLORADO STATE
James Patrick Sports
Wake Forest vs. Navy
Navy takes the short drive over to RFK Stadium for a rematch with the Deacon Deamons of Wake Forest whom they defeated earlier this season (24-17). Our selection for College Football Bowl action on Saturday in this season’s inaugural game is Wake Forest Deacon Deamons as we can’t see Head Coach Jim Grobe’s team duplicating a six turnover performance, (nearly 1/3 of their output this season), as they did earlier against the Middies.
Dark Horse Sports
Baltimore at Dallas
The NFL picked a good match-up for their lone Week 16 Saturday contest. Both Baltimore and Dallas are in the thick of their respective wildcard pictures. But Saturday’s showdown will leave one of these two teams crippled and counting on an awful lot of help to propel them into the postseason. Consider this a playoff game of its own, as both teams will be scratching and clawing in order to gain control of their wildcard hopes.
These two teams are, without a doubt, bring two of the best defenses to the table. Baltimore’s aggressive style of defense is the only reason they’re even in the playoff picture. Defensively, they rank 2nd in the entire league in yards allowed per game, and 3rd in points per game. They are good. Dallas isn’t far behind, and if it wasn’t for a tough defensive stretch at the beginning of the year, this team would be ranked right next to Baltimore, at least. Ever since Wade Phillips took control of the defensive scheming and play calling, Dallas has played with a purpose.
This will be a game to watch in person. Hard hitting, passionate NFL action doesn’t get any better than this. Look for an absolute slugfest on Saturday.
Take Baltimore / Dallas under 39½.
Totals 4U
New Mexico Bowl, Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Fresno State (7-5, 5th place WAC) The Bulldogs were trailed just 13-10 at halftime to Boise State last trip out in a bid to win their final three games, but we’re stomped by the Broncos in the 2nd half to finish the regular season with a 61-10 loss. Frankly, this is the season that slipped away for Coach Pat Hill’s (92-60 in 12th season) group. Through the first month, Fresno has banked road wins over Rutgers, Toledo, and UCLA plus just missed in a 10-13 loss vs. Wisconsin who was ranked #10 in the nation at that point. From there the already mounting injuries were just too much, resulting in Coach Hill never able to start the same offensive lineup for consecutive games all year and a disappointing season for a school that had returned 51 letter winners and 16 of 24 starters. Throughout it all, 6’5” 225 senior QB Tom Brandstater (208 of 348 for 2478 yards, 17 TD, INT) has been a decent if not spectacular representative of “Quarterback U” with a 6’3” 210 junior WR Seyi Ajirotutu (44 for 714 and 5 TD) a dynamite target with NFL size. Fellow receivers Marlon Moore (20 for 233 and TD) and Chastin West (18 for 214 and TD) are decent enough but when opponents load up on Ajirotutu, it is the big senior TE 6’5” 260 Bear Pascoe (37 for 361 and 4 TD) that gets the action. Both his blocking and hands have been key to State’s success in the Red Zone where they have racked 33 TD and 11 FG in 55 trips. The Bulldog offensive line isn’t huge at 6’3 ½” and 289 pounds per man but they have come together very well along the way and have surrendered just 10 sacks over their last 9 games after giving up 6 through their first 3. With only decent talent, balance has been a hallmark of Coach Hill’s offensive approach this season with a 176.8 yards rushing per game at 4.8 yards per carry to pair with 206.5 yards passing to generate 29.2 points per contest. Junior backs 6’0” 215 Anthony Harding (129 for 702 yards and 4 TD) and 5’11” 215 Lonyae Miller (107 for 69 and 5 TD) have been evenly splitting the load after the loss of sophomore Ryan Mathews (109 for 593 and 6 TD) 5 games ago.
Injuries hit this defense especially hard and the numbers have ballooned along the way to 197.3 yards rushing, 196.2 yards passing, and 30.3 points surrendered per game for the year. The loss of the push up the middle provided by DT Joe Monga (22 T, 6 TFL, 4 ½ S in 6 games) has been dearly missed and not only plays a big part in the 5.3 yards allowed per carry on the ground but also in just 17 sacks being tallied and a measly 12 forced turnovers (4 picks, 8 fumbles). Sophomore defensive tackles 6’4” 300 Mark Roberts (21 T, 2 ½ TFL) and 6’3” 300 Cornell Banks (29 T, 3 TFL) certainly have the size for the position but have yet to consistently produce penetration into the backfield via the short rout or given free reign to ends 6’2” 220 Chris Carter (79 T, 6 TFL, 3 ½ S) and 6’2” 255 Ikenna Ike (51 T, 5 ½ TFL, 3 ½ S). Keep your eye out for speedy 6’1” 215 freshman OLB Kyle Cox (41 T, 7 ½ TFL, 2 ½ S) who is quickly growing into the role of edge blitz man. 5’9” 175 freshman LCB Desia Dunn (37 T, TFL, INT) is the only active Bulldog starter with an interception this season with FS Marvin Haynes (2 INT) done for the year. Ok, so this isn’t the best group Pat Hill has ever fielded but his special teams units always rank with the best in the nation and this year is no exception. Freshman K Kevin Goessling (15 of 22 field goals) has a 58-yarder to his credit this year, sophomore P Robert Malone averages 42.7 yards per punt, plus these return and defensive special teams are capable of turning games. In the 12 seasons under Hill, Fresno State has returned 19 punts for touchdowns (conference-best 14.5 yards per with 3 TD in 2008), returned 7 kicks for touchdowns (conference-best 23.8 yards per and 1 TD in 2008), and have blocked 79 punts/kicks (6 this season) with 11 of those taken to the house.
Colorado State (6-6, 5th place MWC) The Rams may have been outscored 358-287 this season but they showed enough heart to win their last pair to take a major step in the program’s turnaround (3-9 in 2007), winning their first bowl bid since 2005. It has been an exciting first year for former St. Louis Ram offensive coordinator and first-year Head Coach Steve Fairchild. Near misses to powerhouse clubs Brigham Young (42-45 on November 1st) and Texas Christian (7-13 on October 11th) signaled to the Mountain West that the boys from Fort Collins are no longer pushovers and even losing 6 safeties along the way (5 of top 6 to start the season are done) this team will scrap. Ok, so this isn’t a great defensive squad with 185.2 yards rushing at 5.2 yards per carry, 222.8 yards passing, and 29.8 points per game allowed but they do have some decent players – led by a very sharp group of linebackers. Outside backers 6’2” 210 sophomore Ricky Brewer (93 T, 3 ½ TFL) and 5’11” 214 freshman Mychal Sisson (99 T, 7 TFL) are blazing young playmakers while 6’3” 236 senior Jeff Hornicek (84 T, 4 ½ TFL, 1 ½ S, 2 INT) is arguably the best middle linebacker in the conference. He’s certainly the smartest. Little pressure (10 total team sacks) has been brought up front by ends Tommie Hill (29 T, 5 TFL, 3 S, INT), Wade Landers (14 T, 4 TFL, S), and Jake Pottorff (16 T, 1 ½ TFL) making the job of the decimated Ram defensive backfield even tougher but they have hung in pretty well. 5’11” 184 freshman Elijah-Blu Smith (34 T, 3 TFL, S) has been moved from cornerback and pressed into duty when 5 Colorado State free safeties have fallen before him although junior Klint Kubiak (28 T, INT) may be ready to return come Saturday. This entire unit is a little undersize but the lack of beef hasn’t kept current starters 5’10” 199 senior SS Jake Galusha (77 T, 3 ½ TFL, INT), 5’10” 175 junior LCB Nick Oppenneer (68 T, INT), and 5’9” 165 freshman RCB Gerard Thomas (53 T, 3 TFL, INT) from piling up big tackle numbers. Injuries have hurt kick coverage especially hard – not encouraging against the Bulldogs. 13.0 yards allowed per punt return with 2 scores and 25.7 yards allowed per kick return with 2 scores could be a major issue.
Colorado State’s offense doesn’t have a ton of playmaking depth but their starters have been nothing short of superb. A veteran offensive line of 4 juniors and a senior (6’5 ½” and 299 per man) is long-armed and built for pass protection with 6’3” 223 senior QB Billy Farris (216 of 350 for 2677 yards, 17 TD, 11 INT) efficient this season behind the wall with a sharp 7.7 yards per pass attempt. The trio of junior receivers 6’1” 200 Rashaun Greer (62 for 1045 yards and 2 TD) and 5’10” 195 Dion Morton (48 for 830 and 10 TD receiving, 11 for 94 and 2 TD rushing) plus 6’6” 250 senior TE Kory Sperry (37 for 470 and 5 TD) account for nearly the entirety of the Ram’s production through the air, making double-teaming by opponents a certain weakness. To counter this short-coming, Coach Fairchild runs the ball early and often, regardless of effectiveness (129.8 yards per game at 3.7 yards per carry), with his huge backs to keep the defenders guessing. 6’2” 234 senior RB Kyle Bell (59 for 209 yards and TD) is a solid contributor but it’s 6’0” 225 senior RB Gatrell Johnson (251 for 1191 yards and 10 TD rushing, 27 for 205 receiving) that carries the load and does so securely. Johnson had a stretch of 554 consecutive touches without a fumble snapped this season and although he doesn’t break many big ones he does bring up the safeties for others to exploit. Senior K Jason Smith (10 of 11 field goals with long of 52) and junior P Anthony Hartz (44.2 yards per) have produced impressive raw numbers but Colorado State better be working on their protection. 4 times this season the Rams have had punts/kicks blocked and their toughest challenge comes on Saturday.
SELECTION: Special teams play simply can’t be ignored when looking at this match up and no matter how much more this game probably means to the Rams, it’s unlikely the kicking/return game won’t be a major – even deciding – factor at University Stadium (Natural blue grass. The Bulldogs play on grass while the Rams play on Field Turf) in Albuquerque. We’ll lay the field goal with Pat Hill’s team that makes its 9th bowl appearance in 10 years. Take Fresno State –3.
Dr. Vegas
Las Vegas Bowl, BYU vs Arizona
One factor not usually considered in Las Vegas is the weather, but a cold front has settled in over the valley. Some parts of town received 3 inches of snow on Monday and by gametime Saturday it will only be in the 30’s.
BYU is ranked #17 in the country, sporting a 10-2 SU record, but they are only 3-8 ATS. They have scored 424 points and given up 254 this year. They have lost 7 of the last 8 ATS, a telling sign of their over-value to Vegas, and one reason a ranked team is the underdog against an unranked team. According to the exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Rankings, the Cougars have a +14.6 rating with an opponent of +3.3.
Arizona is 7-5 SU and also 7-5 ATS. They have scored 445 points and given up 256 – nearly identical number to BYU. They covered their last game but lost the prior 3 ATS. They have a power ranking of +7.0, with an opponent ranking of -1.9.
Arizona is favored by 3, and Vegas has this game wrong. The Cougars have been the more solid team, but unable to succeed against overvalued pointspreads. If you take a closer look at their 1-7 ATS streak, you’ll find lines such as -29, -23.5, -23.5, and -36.5. Unattainable numbers. Their power rankings reflect the fact that they have had a tougher schedule, yet have performed better all season long. In this case, we need to forget about the ATS record, because Vegas overvalued them and their ATS record suffered. Sure, they lost their last game to Utah, but you can hardly compare the Wildcats to the 12-0 Utes.
BYU wins this game outright – take the Cougars plus the points.
SPORTSINSIGHTS
BYU vs Arizona
BYU is appearing in its fourth-consecutive Las Vegas Bowl, and they are seeking their third-straight 11-win season. The Cougars ended their regular season with a disappointing 48-24 loss to rival Utah, which gave Utah the Mountain West Conference Championship and a BCS appearance. BYU quarterback Max Hall is looking to bounce back from a five-interception performance in the rivalry game. The Cougars are hoping the recent time off will help heal some of their walking wounded, including their bruising 1,000-yard tailback Harvey Unga. Unga has been dealing with a variety of injuries this season, including shoulder, neck and ankle problems. BYU will also need a stronger performance from its defense, which has allowed 32 or more points in four of its last six games.
Arizona is making its first bowl appearance in 10 years behind the spread offense it debuted two years ago against BYU. The Cougars defeated the Wildcats 20-7 to open the 2007 season, but Arizona has grown under offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes. Dykes brought the spread offense over from Texas Tech, and increased the Wildcats' scoring average from 16 points per game in 2007 to 37 per game this season. The offense features a 1,000-yard rusher in Nic Grigsby, and a stud tight end in Rob Gronkowski (10 TDs). Arizona's defense is allowing only 169.8 passing yards per game this season.
Arizona opened as a 3-point favorite at Pinnacle and most books tracked by Sports Insights. The public is solidly behind the 10-win Cougars with that point spread. BYU is receiving 70% of the public spread bets and 66% of the parlay bets. Some books have seen the line drop to Arizona -2.5, but it has since returned to a 3-point spread across the marketplace. That earlier movement triggered a number of Smart Money plays on Arizona, including one at Bet Jamaica (49-37, +7.35). We'll follow the Smart Money and take the Wildcats.
Bettorsworld
2* Ravens +4 over Cowboys
The Ravens visit the Cowboys Saturday Night in what amounts to a regular season playoff game as both of these both of these teams are fighting to stay alive in the race. We see games every year in the NFL where teams are on the fringe and must win to get in, but we rarely see teams this good facing each other in this type of scenario. What makes this game special is that either one of these two teams is plenty capable of beating any other team in the NFL. Either one of these teams will be a major threat in the playoffs if they get in. As good as they are, one or the other may be hitting the golf course early this year.
All eyes will be on this game for more than just the playoff picture. Many will be looking on to see if the Cowboys, with all their drama, self destruct and finally implode. I wouldn't count on that happening though. As a matter of fact both of these teams are playing their best ball of the season at just the right time. In the case of the Cowboys, they struggled when Romo went down with an injury earlier in the year but since his return have won 4 of their last 5 games as they make their playoff push.
While the Cowboys offense may appear to be back on track, it's important to note that two of those wins came against the 49ers and Seahawks scoring 34 and 35 points against those two teams. Otherwise, they managed 14 against the Skins, 13 against the Steelers and had just 14 against the Giants last week until they broke a big play late in the game to make it 20-8. This is significant because they'll be facing a Ravens defense that is easily on par with any of those we just mentioned. Point being, points figure to be at a premium Saturday Night and with the Ravens getting +4 here, we'll have to bite.
This is a chance for the Ravens defense to prove they are for real. Many are going to point to the Colts and Giants hanging 30 points on these guys, both games on the road, and suggest that perhaps they are a paper tiger. We shall soon find out. But taking into account the Ravens season as a whole and taking a look at what the Cowboys have done against "good" teams recently all the evidence here points towards a close, low scoring affair Saturday Night. Some stats jump out at us here when we take a look at these two teams and what they have done lately.
Specifically, if we take a look at turnovers for these two teams, one thing stays constant whether we look at season to date or more recently, say, the last 6 games. The Ravens remain at the top in positive territory while the Cowboys remain negative. Over the last 6 games the Ravens are +10 which is #1 in the NFL while the Cowboys are -1. It gets worse if we take into account the entire season. For the Cowboys that is, where they sit at -6 and near the bottom of the league while the Ravens sit at +8 for 4th best in the NFL. Again, this shows a consistency in the turnover category from start to finish.
The Ravens are #1 in the NFL over the last 6 games in points per 100 yards on BOTH offense and defense. They have eye opening yards per point numbers of 11.6 on offense and 21.5 on defense during this 6 game stretch while the Cowboys weigh in with a very average 15 on both sides of the ball.
Romo is hurt. He couldn't walk earlier in the week. The Giants got to him a few times last week and made him pay. Don't think for a minute that this Ravens defense won't do the same. Romo has been notoriously bad in December. He has never been able to win the big game. He's banged up and the Cowboys leading rusher Marion Barber is questionable with a nagging toe injury which helped him gain all of 2 yards last week. Add in all the drama surrounding Terrell Owens and it would appear to be an uphill battle for the Cowboys.
The bright spot for the Cowboys is their defense the last few weeks. Add it all up and there's no other way to see this game than as a defensive battle similar to both teams recent games against the Steelers. In that type of a game, getting +4 is huge.
Look for the Ravens to get to Romo early and often. Look for the turnover ratio both over the last 6 games and entire season to hold true this week as the Ravens force Romo to make costly mistakes ala the Pittsburgh game while the Cowboys season goes down in flames. The feeling here is very simply that the Ravens are the better, healthier team and in much better position to win this one than the Cowboys. +4 points in this one is huge.
2* RAVENS +4
Great Lakes Sports
LSU at Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M
The Texas A&M Aggies are a very solid 3-1 ATS vs the LSU Tigers since 1997, and they are a very nice 4-1 ATS vs SEC opponents the last three years. The LSU Tigers have struggled going 24-33 ATS overall the last three years, and they are a terrible 1-3 ATS vs the Big 12 opponents the last three years. We look for the Texas A&M Aggies to roll over the LSU Tigers for the home ATS Win & Cover tonight.
Game Time Sports Advisors
Memphis vs. South Florida
Play: South Florida -11
We are backing the Bulls here as our FREE MONEY PLAY. This is basically a home game for South Florida. Bulls defense will over-power this C-USA foe. QB Matt Grothe had an up and down season, but this Bulls team is a solid group that has been plagued by inconsistant play. No letdown here for the Bulls as they look to end the year with a nice bowl win. FREE MONEY on the BULLS
Mike Anthony
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Play:Over 59
It’s not hard to make a case for the Over in an early bowl game featuring a pair of teams that are much stronger on the offensive side of the football.In their last six away from home, the Bulldogs allowed at least four touchdowns on five separate occasions. Colorado State went 5-1 to the Over in their last six games in large part because the offense started to click. The Bulldogs senior quarterback, Tom Brandstater, kept the pro-style offense balanced with nearly 2,500 passing yards. Against a Colorado State defense that allowed 34+ four times in its last six games, expect good offensive flow from the Bulldogs as well. Both teams should score into the mid-30's.
The Gold Medal Club
Baltimore @ 104 Dallas
PLAY DALLAS -4.5 (up to 6.5)
The odds makers have put a premium on the Cowboys for this game, and for good reason.Dallas has not only substantially out gained there last 5 opponents, but its the play of the front four on that defensive line that have been dominating the opposition. While the Ravens have protected Joe Flacco well this season, they have yet to face a team with such a dominant pass rush, and run stopping ability, and yes that includes the vaunted Steelers.Baltimore will not be able to run the ball in this game, while the Cowboys will throw the ball well against this secondary, forcing the Ravens to play catch up through the air, and then this gets ugly, with a rookie QB who will be under siege, this game could and will get ugly early.
JIM FEIST
MEMPHIS /SOUTH FLORIDA
PLAY: OVER
This game is indoors from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL. I don't expect to see much defense. Both teams have veteran QBs and up and down defenses. Memphis (6-6) has an offensive minded coach in Tommy West. Junior QB Arkelton Hall is back the last few games after and injured thumb earlier in the season, plus junior RB Curtis Steele (1,175 yards, 5.7 ypc) and freshman RB Brandon Ross lead a balanced attack that averages 28 points and over 200 yards rushing and passing. The defense (26 ppg allowed) gave up over 30 points 4 times. Memphis is on a 16-5 run over the total. In its last three bowls, Memphis allowed 44, 31 and 52 points. South Florida (7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) has a good offense behind junior QB Matt Grothe (15 TDs, 12 INTs), averaging 26 points, 159 yards rushing and 237 passing. They scored 37 on Kansas (37-34) and 41 on NC State. Look for plenty of points. Play South Florida/Memphis Over the total.
Dave Cokin
Georgia Tech @ Pepperdine
Play: Georgia Tech -14
I went against Pepperdine for my College Mismatch of the Week, and the Waves obliged by getting crushed at Northridge. They're back home for this game, but I expect a similar result. The Waves are basically in a start form scratch mode this season and the talent just isn't there presently. Georgia Tech is no great shakes, but they're far more athletically gifted and should be able to dominate here. I'll spot the number with the Yellow Jackets.