Marc Lawrence
Play On: Iowa.
Iowa travels to Des Moines to meet the Bulldogs at the Drake Knapp Center with DOUBLE REVENGE the focus of their visit today. After drilling Drake 16 times in a row, Iowa has taken it on the chin each of the last two years in this annual get-together. The young Hawkeyes are 9-2 SU and 7-1 ATS this season and are commanding newfound respect with each game. The Bulldogs lost a ton of it when they lost in the finals of the Drake Invitational last weekend to S.F. Austin. Iowa improves to 4-0 ATS on this floor in games when the host is off a loss.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on South Florida -11
Memphis finished the year strong to get to 6-6 and to become bowl eligible, however, the long layoff wipes out any momentum the Tigers were creating. USF expected big things this season, like a Big East title and a BCS Bowl, but is did not meet expectations. This will be like a home game for the Bulls in St. Petersburg and I like them to win big. South Florida has much more talent than the Tigers on both sides of the football, but it has a big edge on defense. Memphis is just 2-15 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992. Memphis is just happy to be here. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Arizona -3
It's old news for BYU to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Cougars were thinking they had a team capable of sneaking into the BCS picture this season. Zona gets in a bowl game for the first time in a decade and it will show its excitement by kicking the Cougars Saturday. BYU has some strong factors going against them in this one. It is only 1-7 ATS after the first month of the season this season and a terrible 4-20 ATS after a 2 game road trip since 1992. Coach Stoops is 8-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game as the coach of Arizona . Lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Fresno State -2
Colorado State is giving up a ton of talent to the Bulldogs here. The Rams had to win their last two games just to become bowl eligible. I know the Bulldogs had their sights set much higher this season but they do not want to end their season on a low note with as badly as they were beaten in the regular season finale with Boise State. Plays on a team off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 77-36 ATS the last 10 seasons. Lay the points.
Bob Harvey
BYU +3.5
This game is pretty simple to breakdown. If BYU quarterback Max Hall has a typical day: 300 yards and three touchdowns then the Cougars win. If Hall is sharp and avoids mistakes BYU prevails.Arizona has been good against the pass. They’ve had 15 picks compared to just 11 touchdown passes allowed. The Sun Devils have allowed two TD passes in a game just twice this season. By contrast, Hall has thrown at least two TD passes in a game 10 times this season. Hall threw seven TD passes in a 59-0 demolition of UCLA and had three against Washington. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama threw five total against those teams.This will be Arizona’s first bowl appearance in ten years while BYU will be making it’s fourth straight Las Vegas Bowl appearance. Even if the Vegas Bowl routine is getting stale for the Cougars, they’ve got motivatin. At stake is the team’s third straight 11-win season.If Hall is on and the Cougars can stop or even slow down the Sun Devils running game, BYU gets the nod.
Jimmy The Moose
Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Over
The Toronto D hasn't been very good this season allowing an average of 3.39 GPG. On the road the D has been even worse allowing 3.50 goals per game. The Leafs have played the over in 9 of their last 12 road games. On home ice the Penguins are averaging 3.43 GPG and will feast on the Leafs tonight. Pittsburgh has played the over in 3 straight games and in 4 of their last 5. In the last 8 meetings between the clubs the over is 6-1-1. Play the over.
O.C. Dooley
Fresno State -2.5 vs Colorado State
Due to the fact that Fresno State burnt bettors to the tune of a disastrous 2-10 overall ATS mark, the line on this game has dropped from an opening figure of 4 points, and I am taking advantage of the value created with a team that began the campaign a legtimate contender for one of the BCS Bowls. The main reason why Fresno struggled so badly was due to a massive injury outbreak on an offense that returned 9 different starters. The Bulldogs NEVER had the same 11 starters on the field for any 2 games due to that injury outbreak. Fresno started 3 players at tight end, 4 at running back and 5 at a pair of wide receiver slots. There is no doubt that Fresno desperately needed the time off between the regular season finale and this particular postseason Bowl contest. Despite all the injuries, Fresno does have SENIOR quarterback Tom Brandstater who is #6 on the all-time school list with 6,651 career passing yards. I will admit that the Fresno secondary recently lost starting cornerback Damion Owens in practice with a broken finger, and the rumors have been rampant regarding Pat Hill possibly looking into coaching vacancies with programs at the Big 12 and Pac 10 level. But Hill insists he has turned down all offers and today must show his committement to the Bulldogs program that he has built literally from the ashes. Colorado State used to appear often when ESPN had the contract to show Mountain West Conference football during the week. But the Rams have virtually disappeared from the national scene the past four years where there overall record (17-30) suffered with legendary coach Sonny Lubick who in the offseason handed the keys to Steve Fairchild. While the new head coach did a great job making Colorado State "bowl eligible" for the first time in recent memory, he is still a ROOKIE postseason coach, which gives Fresno State a huge advantage in the preparation department. The bottom line is that Fresno has the most wins by any non-BCS school in the past decade versus BCS competition. That means Fresno plays a very tough non-conference schedule which sets them up perfectly for Bowl situations such as this
SPORTS ADVISORS
Baltimore (9-5, 10-4 ATS) at Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS)
Two teams aiming to stay entrenched in the playoff race square off in a non-conference clash as the Cowboys host the Ravens in what will likely be the last game at Texas Stadium.
Dallas rode its defense to a 20-8 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Giants as a three-point home chalk Sunday night, winning and cashing for the fourth time in five weeks. QB Tony Romo (20 of 30, 244 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was sharp, the offense didn’t commit a turnover and the defense sacked New York QB Eli Manning eight times, forcing two turnovers and allowing just 218 total yards. The Cowboys control their own destiny for a wild-card berth and can earn their third straight postseason berth by sweeping their final two games.
Baltimore suffered a controversial 13-9 loss to Pittsburgh as a three-point home favorite Sunday, giving up a 92-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes, with the Steelers scoring the game’s only touchdown with 43 seconds left on a play that was reversed by replay. The Ravens had their three-game SU and ATS winning streak halted in the defeat, which gave Pittsburgh the NFC North title and dropped Baltimore into the wild-card race.
Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco (11 of 28, 115 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) had a dismal day versus Pittsburgh’s top-ranked defense, accounting for both of his team’s turnovers. Baltimore netted just 202 total yards, while allowing 311 – nearly a third of which came on the Steelers’ game-winning TD drive.
The SU winner is now on a 23-2 ATS roll in the Ravens’ last 25 games, including 13-1 ATS this season. The winner is also 9-0 ATS in Dallas’ last nine games and 12-2 ATS in its 14 contests this year.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Baltimore going 2-0 SU and ATS, winning by a combined score of 57-10. Most recently, the Ravens rolled 30-10 laying 7½ points at home in 2004.
This contest features two of the NFL’s top stop units. Baltimore is second in the league in total defense (257.5 ypg) and third in scoring defense (15.2 ppg), and Dallas is seventh in total defense (287.0 ypg) and 12th in scoring defense (20.6 ppg). Over their last four games, the Ravens have given up a total of three touchdowns and 33 points, while the Cowboys have surrendered just 37 points and two touchdowns in their last three contests, with one of the TDs the result of an interception returned for a score.
Despite Sunday’s victory over the Giants, the Cowboys remain on a 1-7 ATS slide in December, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 at home and 5-0 as a favorite, and they are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a non-conference chalk. The Ravens are on ATS skids of 0-4 on Saturdays and 5-12 after a SU loss, but they carry positive pointspread trends of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 after an ATS setback.
The under for Dallas is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 4-1 against winning teams. On the flip side, the over for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the highway and 8-2-1 as a road underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
EAGLEBANK BOWL
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS) (at Washington, D.C.)
Wake Forest gets a chance to avenge its first loss of the season when it takes on the Midshipmen in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl at RFK Stadium.
These squads met back on Sept. 27 in Winston-Salem, N.C., with Navy pulling off a 24-17 upset win as a 17-point road ‘dog, the Middies first victory over a ranked team in 33 years. Wake Forest had six turnovers in the game, with QB Riley Skinner throwing four interceptions, including a fourth-quarter pick that sealed the Deacons’ fate. Navy outrushed Wake Forest, 292-43.
The victory over Wake Forest ignited the Middies, who went on to win five of their final seven (4-3 ATS). That included back-to-back shutouts to close the season – a 16-0 win at Northern Illinois as a three-point underdog and a 34-0 whitewash of archrival Army as a 10½-point chalk. Navy led the nation in rushing at 298.3 yards per contest and Shun White was third in the country averaging 8.7 yards per carry en route to 1,021 rushing yards and eight TDs in 12 games. Bruising FB Eric Kettani ran for 932 yards and four TDs, including a career-high 175 yards against Wake Forest back in September.
Beginning with loss to Navy, the Demon Deacons lost five of their last nine games (3-6 ATS) and finished tied for third in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Wake Forest, which closed the regular season with a 23-10 non-conference win over Vanderbilt as a four-point home favorite on Nov. 29, ranked 103rd in total offense, averaging just 315.8 yards per game, and they have scored just 20 TDs in 41 trips inside the red zone. Meanwhile, after throwing four INTs against Navy, Skinner threw six TDs and just three picks in his final eight games.
This is Navy’s sixth-consecutive bowl appearance, a school record, going 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five, including four consecutive spread-covers. The Demon Deacons are in their fourth straight bowl game (2-1 SU and ATS in the previous three).
This will be the third meeting between these squads in the last 14 months, including Wake Forest’s 44-24 victory as a three-point road favorite back on Oct. 20, 2007. The Demon Deacons have won four of the last five meetings going back to 1998, going 3-2 ATS.
The Middies are on ATS runs of 22-8 away from home, 4-0 in bowl games, 4-0 in December, 4-1 in neutral-site games, 5-2 in non-conference contests and 7-3 against ACC foes. Wake Forest is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games against winning teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four December contests, but the Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four after a spread-cover.
Navy has stayed under the total in four of its last five overall, but otherwise it’s all “over” streaks for the Middies, including 8-1-1 against ACC teams, 4-0 in bowl games, 9-4 in neutral-site games and 7-2 when coming off a spread-cover. The Demon Deacons are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 7-2 overall, 17-6-1 in non-conference games, 4-0 in December, 4-0 in bowl games and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, these teams totaled just 41 points in their September meeting, staying well under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS) vs. Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) (at Albuquerque, N.M)
Fresno State guns for its fifth bowl victory in the last seven seasons when it battles the Rams at University Stadium in Albuquerque.
The Bulldogs qualified for this contest despite losing three of their final five games (1-4 ATS), including getting destroyed 61-10 at Boise State in the season finale Nov. 28, falling way short as a 21½-point road ‘dog as they got outgained by 200 yards. Senior QB Tom Brandstater threw for 2,478 yards and 17 TDs this season, but also tossed 11 INTs. The Bulldogs averaged 176.8 rushing ypg, but RB Anthony Harden had just 11 yards on nine carries in Boise. Also, Fresno’s defense was a weak link all season, giving up 30.3 points and 393.6 total yards per game (197.4 rushing ypg).
First-year Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild guided the Rams to their first bowl berth since 2005. They won their final two games to become bowl eligible, beating New Mexico 20-6 as three-point home favorites on Nov. 15, then going to Wyoming and routing the archrival Cowboys 31-20 as a 1½-point road chalk the following week. Like Fresno, CSU has struggled in a big way on defense, allowing 29.8 points and 410.2 total yards per game (189.4 rushing ypg).
These teams squared off in 2006 with Colorado State prevailing 35-23 as a 14-point road-dog in Fresno. They have split four meetings since 2001, but the Rams are 3-1 ATS during this stretch.
While Colorado State hasn’t been to a bowl since beating Navy 51-30 in the 2005 Poinsettia Bowl, Fresno State is playing its ninth bowl game in the last 10 years, and the ‘Dogs are 10-7 SU and 6-6 ATS all-time in the postseason, including 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS under coach Pat Hill. The underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in Fresno’s last eight bowl contests, with the Bulldogs being the favorite in three of those contests.
Fresno State is 11-25 ATS over the last three full seasons, including 1-9 ATS in the last 10 this year. Additionally, the Bulldogs mired in ATS slumps of 7-19 as a favorite, 4-9 in non-conference games, 1-5 against Mountain West Conference squads and 16-35-1 following a non-cover. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four December contests and 12-18 ATS as an underdog since 2004, including 0-4 SU and ATS as a road pup this season. On the bright side, Colorado State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 on grass and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a straight-up win.
For Fresno, the over is on streaks of 5-2 in bowl games, 6-2 in non-conference contests and 5-2-1 with the Bulldogs as a favorite. The over is 5-1 in Colorado State’s last six overall, but otherwise the Rams are on under runs of 8-3 as an underdog, 11-4 after a straight-up win and 10-4-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO STATE
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Memphis (6-6, 5-6 ATS) vs. South Florida (7-5, 4-7 ATS) (at St. Petersburg, Fla.)
South Florida makes the short trek from its Tampa Bay campus to Tropicana Field and will have a virtual home game when it battles Memphis in the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl.
South Florida opened the season with five straight wins and climbed to No. 10 in the rankings before losing five of its last seven (3-4 ATS). The Bulls struggled offensively, failing to score more than 20 points in any of their last five, with senior QB Matt Grothe being the biggest culprit as the threw just three TD passes and 11 INTs during this stretch. South Florida averaged 14.8 points in its five losses and 34.9 points in its seven wins.
Memphis won three of its last four SU and ATS to get into the postseason, including a 45-6 rout over Tulane as a 14½-point favorite. Junior RB Curtis Steele rushed for 1,175 yards and seven TDs to become the school’s first 1,000-yard rusher in three years. None of the Tigers’ six victories came against an opponent that finished with a winning record, and Memphis averaged 34.2 points in its six wins and just 22.3 points in its six defeats.
South Florida is in its fourth straight bowl game, going 1-2 SU and ATS in the previous three, including last season’s embarrassing 56-21 loss to Oregon in the Sun Bowl as a 5½-point favorite. Memphis has won three of its five bowl games all-time, including a 44-27 loss to Florida Atlantic in last year’s New Orleans Bowl as a 3½-point ‘dog.
These two were regular competitors earlier this decade, splitting four games both SU and ATS between 2001 and 2004.
Memphis is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a double-digit ‘dog, but 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 8-19-1 ATS in its last 28 after a SU win. South Florida is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, but the Bulls have cashed in four of their last five against Conference USA foes.
For Memphis, the over is on streaks 7-3-1 in non-conference games and 5-2 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Bulls have gone over the posted number in six of their last seven non-conference games, but the under is 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-1 in their last five December games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
LAS VEGAS BOWL
(17) BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS) vs. Arizona (7-5 SU and ATS) (at Las Vegas)
The Cougars return to the Las Vegas Bowl for the fourth consecutive year, this time facing the Wildcats, who are making their first postseason appearance in a decade.
BYU was ranked as high as No. 8 in the country before a 32-17 loss to unranked TCU on Oct. 16, failing as a 1½-point road ‘dog. Despite that setback, the Cougars were still on track to win at least a share of the Mountain West Conference crown, but that goal got squashed in a season-ending 48-24 loss to then-No. 8 Utah on Nov. 22, failing to cash as 6½-point road underdogs to end the season in a 1-7 ATS funk. QB Max Hall threw a career-high five INTs and no TDs in the loss to the rival Utes.
Arizona outscored archrival Arizona State 24-0 in the second half on Dec. 6, rolling to a 31-10 victory as an 11-point home favorite to wrap up its first winning season since 1998, which was the last time the Wildcats earned a bowl berth. Arizona outgained the Sun Devils by 227 yards in halting a two-game SU and a three-game ATS slide.
The Cougars have won their last two bowl games inside Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. In 2006, they clobbered Oregon 38-8 as a three-point favorite, then last year BYU blocked a field goal to secure a 17-16 win over UCLA, falling short as six-point favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona beat Nebraska 23-20 in the 1998 Holiday Bowl in its most recent postseason contest.
These squads have met each of the last two regular seasons, with the host winning both and BYU going 2-0 ATS. Last year, the Cougars rolled 20-7 as a 3½-point favorite, with both QBs playing well, as Hall threw for 288 yards and two TDs and Tuitama passed for 216 yards and one score.
Both teams feature high-powered offenses. Arizona ranks 16th in the nation in scoring offense (37.1 ppg) and averages 401.3 total ypg, as QB Willie Tuitama finished second in the Pac-10 in passing yards (2,763), TDs (21) and QB rating (143.0). The Cougars put up 35.3 ppg and 446 total ypg, and Hall (69.6 percent completion rate, 3,627 yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs) led a passing attack that rates seventh in the nation (308.9 ypg).
The Cougars have gotten the cash in six of their last eight after a straight-up loss, and they’re 5-1 SU in their last six games against Pac-10 foes (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS this year). Otherwise, BYU is on negative ATS streaks of 1-7 overall, 1-5 on the road this year, 1-5 in non-conference games, 0-4 in non-conference road games and 1-5 after a non-cover. Arizona has gone 0-4 ATS in its last four against Mountain West squads, 11-29 ATS in its last 40 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS on the highway this season, but the Wildcats are on positive pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall and 6-2 against teams with a winning record.
The under is 4-1 in BYU’s last five bowl games and 5-2 in its last seven against Pac-10 squads. The Wildcats are on “under” runs that include 4-0 in December games, 11-5 after a spread-cover and 20-8 on grass. Also, both games between these schools the last two seasons have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(6) Duke (9-1, 5-4 ATS) vs. (7) Xavier (9-0, 4-4 ATS) (at East Rutherford, N.J.)
The Izod Center in East Rutherford hosts a clash of Top 10 programs, as Xavier puts its unbeaten season on the line against Duke.
The Musketeers remained perfect with last Saturday’s 76-66 rout of rival Cincinnati, cashing as a 2½-point road favorite. Xavier is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in road/neutral-site games this season, and the Musketeers are allowing opponents to make just 35.7 percent of their shots, which is the 12th best field-goal defense in the nation.
Duke bounced back from its first loss – a shocking 81-73 defeat at Michigan as a 10-point road favorite two weeks ago – with Wednesday’s 99-56 rout of North Carolina-Asheville in a non-lined home game. The Blue Devils are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road, and eight of their nine their wins have come by double digits. Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad ranks 11th in the nation in scoring at 83.4 points per game.
These teams last met in the Elite Eight of the 2004 NCAA Tournament, with Duke eking out a 66-63 victory, but the Musketeers cashed as a 6½-point underdog.
The Blue Devils have failed to cash in five straight games on Saturday and nine of their last 13 at neutral venues. Meanwhile, Xavier is on ATS runs of 28-9 at neutral sites and 4-1 against winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in eight of their last 11 on Saturday.
For Duke, the under is on runs of 11-4 overall (all in non-conference play), 8-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 versus Atlantic 10 foes and 6-1 coming off a victory of more than 20 points. Conversely, the Musketeers are on over stretches of 3-0 overall, 12-5 in non-conference action, 4-1 on Saturday and 5-2 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER
(19) Michigan State (7-2, 3-4 ATS) vs. (5) Texas (9-1, 4-3 ATS) (at Houston)
Texas takes its six-game winning streak east to Houston for a non-conference clash with Michigan State at the Toyota Center.
Since knocking off then-No. 15 Villanova 67-58 as a two-point favorite at Madison Square Garden in New York, the Longhorns have slept-walked to victories over Division II foes Southwest Texas State (81-73) and Texas Southern (88-72) in non-lined home games. Texas has scored at least 67 points in all 10 of its games and is outscoring visitors by an average of 17 points per game (76-59).
Michigan State has ripped off three consecutive blowout home victories since an embarrassing loss to top-ranked North Carolina, crushing Bradley 75-59 as a 15-point home favorite, Alcorn State 118-60 in a non-lined game and The Citadel 79-65 as a 28-point home chalk, the latter contest played on Wednesday. The Spartans are 3-1 away from home, but 1-2 ATS.
These teams met each of the last two years, with Michigan State going 2-0 SU and ATS, winning 78-72 as a 4½-point road underdog in 2006 and 78-72 as a four-point home chalk in 2007. The SU winner is 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head battles going back to 1999.
The Spartans are on ATS upticks of 4-0 versus the Big 12 and 4-1 after a non-cover, but they’re 0-5 ATS in their last five after a SU victory and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on Saturday. Meanwhile, Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven on Saturday, but 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Big Ten.
The over is 7-1 in Michigan’ State’s last eight games against Big 12 foes and 7-3 in Texas’ last 10 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(9) Louisville (6-1, 4-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota (9-0, 4-2 ATS) (at Glendale, Ariz.)
Minnesota puts its unbeaten record on the line at University of Phoenix Stadium when it faces its first Top 25 opponent this year in ninth-ranked Louisville.
The Golden Gophers have rolled to five straight double-digit wins, going 3-0 ATS in lined contests during this stretch. They’ve been idle since Dec. 10, when they pounded South Dakota State 74-60 in a non-lined home game. Tubby Smith’s squad has played just once away from Minneapolis this year, and they eked out a 72-71 victory at Colorado State, pushing as a one-point road favorite.
The Cardinals faced Ole Miss in a neutral-site game in Cincinnati on Thursday, struggling to a 77-68 win but coming up short as a 16-point favorite. Since suffering a stunning 14-point loss to Western Kentucky on Nov. 13, Rick Pitino’s troops have won five in a row (2-1 ATS) by an average margin of 25 ppg.
Louisville’s defense has been tremendous to this point, ranking 22nd in the nation in points allowed (57.6 ppg), 11th in field-goal defense (35.8 percent) and second in three-point defense (24.5 percent). Meanwhile, Minnesota is giving up 62.1 ppg on 39.2 percent shooting (32.7 percent from three-point range). However, the Gophers make 49 percent of their shots (73.6 ppg), while Louisville connects at a 44.5 percent rate (79.6 ppg)
The Golden Gophers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games, while Louisville is 0-4 ATS in its last four against the Big Ten, but 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 overall and 6-2 ATS in its last eight on Saturday.
For Minnesota, the under is on streaks of 16-5 overall in lined games, 37-14 on Saturdays, 5-2 in non-conference play, 4-0 at neutral sites and 8-2 after a SU win. Also, Louisville is on under stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1-1 at neutral venues, 35-17-1 in non-conference games and 5-0 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE and UNDER
(22) Davidson (8-1, 4-3 ATS) vs. (13) Purdue (8-2, 4-4 ATS) (at Indianapolis)
Player-of-the-Year candidate Stephen Curry takes his sharp-shooting act to Conseco Fieldhouse as he leads Davidson in a Top 25 non-conference clash against Purdue.
Davidson has been involved in three consecutive nail-biters, but won them all, including last Saturday’s 100-95 victory over Chattanooga, falling way short as a 23-point home favorite. Curry went 11-for-22 from the field (5-for-11 from 3-point range) and finished with 41 points, the third time this season he’s netted more than 40. Curry leads the nation in scoring at 32 points per game, despite the fact he was held scoreless once this season.
Purdue also has been off since last Saturday, when it pounded Indiana State 76-62, coming up short as a 25-point home favorite. Since consecutive losses to ranked foes Oklahoma (87-82 in overtime in New York) and Duke (76-60 at home), the Boilermakers have won three in a row by margins of 48, 29 and 24 points, going 1-1 ATS in lined games. Purdue has followed up an 18-4-1 ATS run by going 1-4 ATS in its last five lined outings.
With Curry leading the way, Davidson ranks seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.1 ppg, while making 44.8 percent of its shots. However, the Boilermakers are allowing just 57 ppg on 34.7 percent shooting, figures that rank 17th and fifth in the nation, respectively.
Davidson, which has alternated spread-covers in its last six games, is on a bunch of positive ATS runs, including: 48-22-1 overall, 44-18 away from home, 11-2 in non-conference play, 4-0 against the Big Ten, 46-19-1 after a SU win and 40-19-2 on Saturdays. On the flip side, in addition to its 1-4 ATS rut overall, Purdue is in pointspread funks of 0-4 at home and 1-4 against winning teams, but the Boilers have cashed in seven of their last nine on Saturdays.
The over is 5-1 in Davidson’s last six road games, but the under is 4-1 in its last five oveall and 7-2 in its last nine on Saturdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DAVIDSON
(2) Connecticut (9-0, 3-2 ATS) vs. (8) Gonzaga (7-1, 5-2 ATS) (at Seattle)
Less than a week after its perfect season came to an end, Gonzaga will attempt to hand second-ranked UConn its first setback as the Bulldogs make the short trip from Spokane to Seattle for what is technically a neutral-site contest at Key Arena.
Gonzaga, playing its sixth straight game on a road or neutral court, went to Arizona as a six-point road chalk Sunday but fell 69-64. It marked the first time all year that the Bulldogs failed to score at least 70 points, and was just the third time they had given up more than 59. However, Mark Few’s team bounced back from the Arizona loss with Thursday’s 84-42 home rout of Texas Southern in a non-lined contest.
As usual, UConn has fattened up on cupcakes early in the season, including four straight wins over the likes of Bryant (88-58), Delaware State (79-49), Buffalo (68-64) and Stony Brook (91-57). Only the Buffalo victory was on the betting board, and the Huskies failed to cash as a 15-point road favorite in that one.
Gonzaga played UConn on a neutral court in Boston last December and came away with an 85-82 victory, covering as a 5½-point underdog. The Bulldogs are 3-0 ATS in three meetings against the Huskies since 1999, all as an underdog.
For the season, Gonzaga is averaging 78 points per game on 48.1 percent shooting and allowing 57.7 ppg on 35.2 percent shooting, the latter number good for ninth-best in the country. Meanwhile, UConn is 15th in the nation in scoring (83 ppg) and seventh in field-goal percentage (51.1), and Jim Calhoun’s troops give up just 60 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting.
UConn is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on Saturday, but otherwise the Huskies are in pointspread dips of 5-13 in lined non-conference games, 4-17 at neutral sites, 1-4 against the West Coast Conference and 0-6 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.
Gonzaga is on ATS tears of 5-2 overall (all in non-conference), 21-7 on Saturdays, 4-0 against the Big East and 6-2 after a win of more than 20 points.
The Huskies are on “over” stretches of 8-2 overall in lined contests, 13-3 at neutral sites and 5-1 after a SU win. The over is also 20-6 in Gonzaga’s last 26 games on Saturday, but otherwise the Zags are on “under” spurts of 6-1 overall and 4-0 at neutral venues.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA and OVER
(11) Syracuse (10-1, 3-5 ATS) at (23) Memphis (6-2, 4-4 ATS)
Syracuse looks for its third victory of the season against a ranked opponent when it heads to the FedEx Forum in Memphis for a battle with the Tigers.
The Orange opened the season with nine straight wins, including back-to-back victories over 18th-ranked Florida (89-83) and 22nd-ranked Kansas (89-81). However, their unbeaten season ended in brutal buzzer-beating fashion Monday, as Cleveland State hit a 60-foot shot as time expired to steal a 72-69 win at the Carrier Dome as a 10½-point road underdog. Jim Boeheim’s squad rebounded from that setback with Wednesday’s 82-60 rout of Canisius, but failed to cover as a 23-point home favorite, dropping to 1-4 ATS in its last five lined games.
Memphis also bounced back from a tough loss on Wednesday, downing Arkansas-Little Rock 59-51 at home but coming nowhere close to covering the 22-point spread. Last Saturday, the Tigers went to Georgetown and took the 19th-ranked Hoyas to overtime before falling 79-70 as a six-point road underdog.
These teams last met at Madison Square Garden in November 2004, with the Orange rolling to a 77-62 victory as a 2½-point favorite. Two years earlier, Memphis beat Syracuse 70-63 as a 4½-point home ‘dog.
Syracuse has scored at least 69 points in every game this year, producing 79 or more eight times, and the Orange rank 20th in scoring offense (82 ppg) and 17th in field-goal offense (49.7 ppg). Meanwhile, the Tigers have scored 80 points or more five times, but have also been held to 58 and 59 points in two of their contests. John Calipari’s squad is netting 78 ppg on just 42.1 percent shooting, including a woeful 27.3 percent from 3-point land.
Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday, but 0-8 ATS in its last eight following a victory of more than 20 points. Meanwhile, Memphis 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday, but 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 for Syracuse on Saturday, 5-2 for Syracuse following a victory, 5-1 for Memphis on Saturday and 8-0 for Memphis when facing Big East opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Navy vs. Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons lost to Navy (24-17) back in September, but are 6-2 ATS over the last three seasons when revenging a loss against an opponent. Wake Forest is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Deacons favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-2 1/2).
Game 201-202: Navy vs. Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 85.474; Wake Forest 90.588
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 5; 46
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-2 1/2); Over
Game 203-204: Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 77.584; Colorado State 81.194
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 3 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 3; 60
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+3); Over
Game 205-206: Memphis vs. South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 78.411; South Florida 87.075
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: South Florida by 12 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+12 1/2); Under
Game 207-208: BYU vs. Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 93.842; Arizona 101.648
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8; 59
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3); Under
NFL
Game 103-104: Baltimore at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.805; Dallas 144.263
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Over
Gina
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
The Ravens potent defense will be a tough challenge for the Cowboys, but Romo and his boys at Texas Stadium in a crucial battle will be a bigger task for the Ravens. Go with Dallas at home in a close hard fought fight. Dallas has won its last 5 games at home.
Dallas Cowboys -4
Mr. A
Wake Forest vs. Navy
Wake Forest Demon Deacons have won four of the last five meetings and hold a 6-3 edge in the all-time series against Navy Midshipmen. However, The road team in this series is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and Navy is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Navy Midshipmen +3
Colorado State vs. Fresno State
Fresno State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games versus Colorado State
Colorado State Rams +3
Memphis vs. South Florida
South Florida Bulls are 1-3 ATS in the past four games against the Memphis Tigers.
Memphis Tigers +12½
BYU vs Arizona
BYU Cougars are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, but have won three of the last four meetings versus Arizona and the past three Las Vegas Bowls.
Brigham Young Cougars +3
Johnny Guild
B-Y-U Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona Wildcats should easily move the chains against the BYU Cougars plummeting defense, but so will the Cougars with their passing attack, led by quarterback Max Hall. Expect a high scoring close clash with both defenses currently vulnerable. BYU has won three of the last four meetings, but has covered the spread in just one of their last eight games overall.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3
Memphis Tigers +11
Arizona Wildcats -3
BYU vs. Arizona Over -61
Sports Gambling Hotline
Baltimore at DALLAS
We know that the Thursday, and Monday night games have been overwhelming OVER plays this season in the NFL, but here we come to our first Saturday night offering, and this game is going to be a smash-mouth UNDER offering from Big "D".
Baltimore comes into this game having allowed; 7, 3, 10, and 13-points their last 4 games, and for the season the Ravens have allowed 13-points or less in 10 of their 14 games!
The Dallas defense has started to pick it up as well, as they kept the Giants out of the end zone last Sunday night in their huge 20-8 win and cover. The Cowboys have allowed 10-points or less in 3 of their last 5 games.
This game just smells of 27-total combined points, and we will be backing the UNDER in a big way from Dallas in this Saturday night special.
Play the Ravens-Cowboys to go LOW!
4♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Denver at PHOENIX -4'
This series has been all about the home team lately, with the host winning six straight games and cashing every time. So we'll take our chances that the Suns can make it seven in a row with a big home win tonight.
The winner in th is series has scored a minimum of 125 points in each of the last six and the winner has gotten at least 113 in each of the last 10 meetings. So this is an offensive show.
Coming off Friday's horrible loss at home to the Cavs, the Nuggets have now dropped two in a row, both SU and ATS. They just never seemed to get into the game Friday night and now come back on no rest and have to take on a Phoenix team that seems to be clicking on all cylinders on the offensive end.
The Suns have scored at least 106 points in each of their six games and come in off a 124-119 loss in Portland on Thursday. They could not contain Blazers' guard Brandon Roy who went off for 52 points and single-handedly won the game.
Phoenix is shooting 52 percent from the field in their last five games and better than 46 percent from the three-point line. The Suns are averaging 115.6 in their last five and the addition of guard Jason Richardson has seemed to ignite this offense. The guy can play and light it up.
The Suns will get this one tonight, taking full advantage of a tired Nuggets team that comes in on the second night of a back-to-back. They didn't look good on Friday and won't look good tonight. Suns win this one by 12.
4♦ PHOENIX
Fresno State -2' vs. Colorado State, at Albuquerque, N.M.
The Bulldogs have the bowl game experience in this one and they'll use it to get a big win and easy cover against the Rams today in Albuquerque.
Fresno State has a potent offense as senior QB Tom Brandstater is finishing up a stellar career. He has thrown for 2,478 yards, 17 TDs and 11 INTs this season, a down year after a brilliant junior season.
The Bulldogs are in their ninth bowl game in the last 10 years and they are 10-7 SU all-time in the postseason. With coach Pat Hill at the helm, the Bulldogs are 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS in bowl games. Colorado State hasn't been to the postseason since 2005 and they had to win their final two games to become bowl eligible, beating New Mexico 20-6 and then going to Wyoming and winning 31-20.
Both teams are not very good on defense and because of that we like the potent Fresno attack to dominate this one. Brandstater isn't going to lose his final game in a Bulldogs' uniform. He's a solid QB that will lead his team to a win today. Play Fresno.
3♦ FRESNO STATE