Karl Garrett
Fresno State vs. COLORADO STATE +3 - at Albuquerque
G-Man likes the chances of Colorado State in this New Mexico Bowl today against a Fresno State team that has been an absolute money-burner when installed as the favorite.
Pat Hill's team is a horrid 4-20 against the spread their last 24 when laying chalk, and they went just 1-7 in the favored role this year!
Colorado State made it to Albuquerque by winning and covering their last pair of games in solid fashion, and the Rams did give major scares to TCU, and BYU this season before bowing, but covering as the underdog in both games.
The Mountain West has gone 9-4 straight up in the last 13 bowl games they have been involved in, and first year coach Steve Fairchild knows a thing or two about getting a team ready for the postseason, as he went to 5 bowl games as Sonny Lubick's assistant.
As for Pat Hill, he is bowling with the 'Dogs for the 9th time in 10 seasons, and the underdog has been the play in his previous 8 bowl appearences.
G-Man on the points in this one.
3♦ COLORADO STATE
Wild Bill
Navy +3 (5 units)
BYU +3 (5 units)
South Fla -12 1/2 (5 units)
Charlie Scott
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State +3
Colorado st is the motivated team in this matchup and wants to play in this bad bowl in the middle of nowhere. Fresno st has been to better bowls in previous years and had preseason goals much higher than the New Mexico Bowl. I also believe Colorado st has the edge in that their used to playing games at high altitude, and are used to playing on this field in Albuquerque. Play the Dog Colorado st !
Jorge Gonzalez
BYU / ARIZONA UNDER 59.5
The BYU Cougars and the Arizona Wildcats will be squaring off in the in the Las Vegas Bowl game tonight. This is the third time that theses two teams have met in the last three years. The interesting note on this game is that there will be plenty of fans from both teams in attendance. Arizona is not from and neither is BYU. The Cougars have a large Mormon population that come to support them in Las Vegas and will get quite a few travelers to come down from Utah to see their team play in the fourth straight Las Vegas Bowl. The Arizona basketball team will be playing UNLV earlier in the day and will have fans that are making the trip to catch both games. This game will be close to sold out with two fired up crowds. Both teams run the spread offense that came from the Texas Tech. BYU offensive coordinator Robert Anae and Arizona offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes both served under Mike Leach. The defenses are very experienced at matching-up with the respected offenses. The last two games played between Arizona and BYU have averaged just 28 points. I don't expect a defensive dogfight but I don't expect both teams to move the ball at will.With the weather conditions calling for cold game-time temperatures, this game should result in more running plays that expected. Both teams are capable of running the ball and will try to keep the opponent's offense on the sidelines. Take the under.
COWBOYS -4
The Dallas Cowboys will be playing their last regular season home game in Texas Stadium when they take on the Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 20-8 victory over the New York Giants. The Ravens come on losing a 13-9 game against the Steelers. The Cowboys defense has stepped it up over the last three games with 20 sacks and forced nine turnovers. The Cowboys are leading the NFL with 53 sacks and will be looking to put a lot of pressure on rookie quarterback Jon Flacco. Flacco and the Ravens have struggled against the better teams in the league. They were blown out by the Colts. They also have lost close games to the Steelers and the Titans. The Cowboys have not missed the services of their star running back Marion Barber as much as everyone has expected. Rookie Tashard Choice has stepped nicely over the last two games. Choice had 166 total yards against the Steelers and 143 yards. The Ravens have not covered the last four games that the have played on Saturday. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS as a favorite and have covered their last four games at home. Texas Stadium will be buzzing tomorrow night on national television and you can expect the Cowboys to come with their "A" game in this spot.
Erik Scheponik
Navy vs. Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest -3
This is now the 3rd team that Jim Grobe's defense, ranked 19th in the country and high on speed and football IQ, has had a chance to see the Navy option, and I'm betting proper adjustments will be made. Six turnovers beat them the first time against Navy as 16 point favorites, but now with an adjustment made to a neutral field, we get 9-10 points of line value here. Ace kicker Swank is back in the lineup for the Deacons and they hold a big advantage in the special teams in this one, and that always proves bit this time of year. New Head Coaches are only 23-36-1 $ in their first year with a new team, and we'll play Grobe and his experienced Demon Deacons over Niumatlolo and a Navy team that has faced the lesser schedule. Wake Forest by 6
Jeff Benton
This one comes down to three factors: 1) the Rams have faced a much more challenging schedule and have better “losses” on their resume; 2) Fresno State just can’t cover pointspreads anymore; and 3) a lengthy bit of history tells us to bet the underdog in Fresno bowl games.
I’ll start by addressing the first point. Fresno State opened the year with games against Rutgers, Wisconsin and UCLA, but by the end of the season, those three schools proved to be anywhere from mediocre (Rutgers and Wisconsin) to dreadful (UCLA). Meanwhile, Colorado State played non-conference games against Colorado, Houston (bowl team) and Cal (bowl team) before jumping into a tough Mountain West Conference schedule that included a three-games-in-four-weeks gauntlet against ranked foes TCU, Utah and BYU. Although Colorado State got its doors blown off at Utah, it held its own against TCU (13-7 home loss as a 15½-point underdog) and BYU (45-42 home loss as a 15½-point ‘dog).
As for the Bulldogs, they went 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS in a very weak Western Athletic Conference. Aside from Boise State and perhaps Nevada – both of which beat Fresno by double digits – the WAC was crap. Then there are the Bulldogs’ spread-covering woes. They went 2-10 ATS this year, including 1-8 ATS as a favorite, and they’re 11-25 ATS over the past three full seasons and 4-20 ATS as a favorite since the end of the 2005 campaign.
As for that “bet the underdog in Fresno bowl games” thing? The pup has cashed in each of the Bulldogs’ last eight bowl games, with Fresno going 0-3 ATS in its last three as a postseason chalk! Plus, there’s the fact that Colorado State, under a first-year coach, is ecstatic to be in any bowl game while the Bulldogs, who started the season with much bigger goals, are no doubt disappointed to be playing in Albuquerque. Take the points in what should be a high-scoring game.
4♦ COLORADO STATE
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take Navy.
It is not the easiest thing to take a service academy and not get more points than this against a solid and top 25 type of a squad in Wake Forest but that is still exactly what I am going to do.
Riley Skinner and the Demon Deacons are pretty good and boast one of the top kickers in the nation in Sam Swank who can definitely come into play today. With that said Navy is rolling right now and should be as confident as any team in the nation. Yes the Midshipmen are still the less athletic and little brother in this matchup but Wake is still not a big bad ass kind of a team that can just fly up and down the field and score points at will.
Navy's defense has been lights out in its past games shutting out both Northern Illinois and Army. Certainly those two teams are far from being Florida and Oklahoma but gooseggs are gooseggs and neither game was at home making it that much better.
If you look at the whole body of work this Navy team has been very very good all season long and to be honest with you are still a little underated. They beat both Rutgers and Air Force (on the road) and also this same Wake team back on September 27th. Sure that sets up a matter of revenge for Jim Grobe's squad but it also gives us a matter of confidence as well.
It will not be easy to beat the Deacs a second time but the Navy offense led by Kaipo and Shun White are on-fire and the defense is outstanding right now. In the end we are looking at a hard fought quality game and I can see Navy prevailing.
Jake Timlin
Your Saturday selection is Wake Forest (Eagle Bank Bowl).
Early release and early kickoff to the bowl season I like for the Demon Deacons get revenge against Navy. Yes, it is not often that a pair of teams play in the regular season then meet up in the postseason, but thanks to the events from the first game I don’t see Navy earning the sweep. Not when the Midshipmen barley won by 7 points in the first game and one that featured six Wake Forest turnovers. Meanwhile, going in favor of the Demon Deacons will be their 44-24 win in Annapolis last season as Jim Grobe coached teams have owned service academy teams going 13-4 SU and 11-5 ATS life time. Flat out while bowl game rematches are less then desirable I do like this one as I see Wake Forest with the extra weeks to prepare and a low number taking care of business. So kicking off the bowl season take Wake Forest minus the points!
Tony Weston
We’re coming at it in the New Mexico Bowl as we’re taking Colorado State over Fresno State.
The Rams come into this game installed as about a 3 point underdog and will keep this one close enough to cover.
Consider that for the season Colorado State is 6-6 SU and 6-5 ATS. And while that may not blow away anyone, it’s a lot better than Fresno State, which comes into this game 7-5 SU and only 2-10 ATS.
In fact, since opening the season with a 24-7 outright victory over Rutgers as a 3 1/2 point underdog, the Bulldogs have covered only once, in a 24-10 victory as a 3-point favorite over San Jose State on Nov. 21.
Now the Bulldogs have to battle a Rams’ team that’s 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS its last 10 games and is 3-1 ATS its last four games, including covers in each of its last two games.
Consider, too, that over the last few years when these teams have played, the Rams have done a good job of getting over on the Bulldogs. In fact, in their last two matchups the Rams are 2-0 SU and ATS against Fresno State.
Colorado State will add another victory over the Bulldogs and cover today. Take the points and take the Rams in the New Mexico Bowl.
3♦ COLORADO STATE
Craig Davis
Running the football is going to the be the key to this game, and the Rams have really started to do that well lately.
Fresno State, on the other hand, has had some games in which it couldn't have stopped a high school team's rushing attack.
Bulldogs just don't have enough offense to stay in this one.
Take the Rams and the few points.
3♦ COLORADO STATE
Triple Threat Sports
Our play on this game is to take Arizona, as the Wildcat fans outnumber the Cougar fans almost 3-1 (remember AU hoops is also in town today to play UNLV) so far, and all indications are that Zona's players are much more excited to be here than those of BYU, some of whom have been to this bowl for a fourth straight time now. Lay the small number with the faster offense and stronger defense.
Speculating Sports
BYU Cougars @ Arizona Wildcats
2 units: Over 62
This game looks to be entertaining, as it features two high powered offenses with questionable defenses. BYU’s offense is led by quarterback Max Hall, who has thrown for over 3600 yards and 34 touchdowns. The Cougars have scored 38 points or more in 7 games this season. They are facing an Arizona defense that has been lit up in several games this season. Oregon moved the ball at will against them, scoring 55 points. Even horrible offenses like Washington State and New Mexico had offensive success against them. The Wildcats played their worst defense away from home, as their home/road defensive numbers are vastly different. They are giving up almost 17 more points to opposing offenses outside of Tucson. Meanwhile, BYU’s defense has been even worse to far less competition. Below average offenses were able to torch the Cougars, as Colorado State, UNLV, and TCU scored 109 combined points against them. BYU’s defense also played much worse away from home, giving up 31 points per game. They also allowed opponents to rush for an average of 180 yards per game on the road. Arizona has very talented running backs in Nick Grigsby and Keola Antolin. They will run all over the Cougars, who don’t have the speed or size to stop these backs. This game will be a back and forth shootout with the defenses having problems throughout.
Wunderdog
Temple at Kansas
Pick: Temple +9.5
The Temple Owls have to be brimming with confidence after taking down a top Tennessee team with relative ease 88-72. Dionte Christmas certainly improved upon his potential All-America status by lighting up the Volunteers for 35 points. The Owls have the inside presence as well as Sergio Olmos dropped in 19 against the Vols. The Jayhawks ranking is a product of a good program getting much too much respect, and a loss to a then 2-6 UMass team in Kansas City certainly has to have their doubters on board for this one - as I am. This team is talented, but young and hasn't learned how to win yet. Sherron Collins is a big-time player, but the supporting cast isn't the same just yet as we have seen in previous additions of the Jayhawks. The Owls are feeling it, have a leader that can keep them close, or even pull the shocker, so I'm going with the points here as the Owls get the call.
Tom Freese
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Denver is 6-0 OVER their last six games vs. winning teams and they are are 9-4 OVER their last 13 games overall. The Nuggets are 4-1 OVER vs. a team that allowed 100 or more points in their last game and they are 6-0 OVER their last six meetings with the Suns. Phoenix is 9-1 OVER their last 10 games and they are 8-1 OVER after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Suns are 5-0 OVER of a straight up loss and they are 4-1 OVER when playing with one day of rest.
Play on: Over
VEGAS EXPERTS
BYU at Arizona
This is a case of "wrong team favored" here. BYU's two losses to TCU and Utah (both ranked in the top 11) look a lot better than Arizona's five overall losses, two of which came to non bowl-teams New Mexico and Stanford. BYU was once unbeaten and in the top ten itself. They had a four-game stretch where they outscored opponents 158-17. They have been in this game each of the last three years, and won it the last two.
Play on: BYU