Robert Ferringo
Take Duke (-5) over Georgetown
I'm a Big East guy, all the way. And I have been one of the loudest Duke bashers you could hear over the last four years. But I think it's pretty clear here who the best team is and I don't think this one will be close. The Blue Devils are nearly unbeatable at Cameron Indoor and they already have double-digit wins this year over Purdue, Xavier and Davidson. They have depth, some legit athletes, and you know they'll be getting every call from the refs at home. This is a young Georgetown team that has already come up small away from home against Tennessee and Notre Dame. As much as I hate to say it, the home team gets it done and seals this game up late to take the cash.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(12) Notre Dame (12-4, 4-6 ATS) at (8) Syracuse (16-2, 7-7 ATS)
Two Big East heavyweights coming off road losses get together when Syracuse takes on Notre Dame at the Carrier Dome.
The Orange fell to Georgetown 88-74 as a 6½-point road pup Wednesday, halting a seven-game SU win streak (4-2 ATS in lined games), which included victories in their first four Big East games. The double-digit setback was a bit of a reversal of fortune, as Syracuse posted five double-digit victories during its seven-game surge. Still, including the loss at Georgetown, the Orange have outshot opponents 50.8 percent to 42.1 percent in their last five contests and are averaging nearly 10 points more per game (80.0-70.4).
The Fighting Irish lost to Louisville 87-73 in overtime Monday, scoring just two points in the extra frame in failing to cover as a 6½-point road underdog, the team’s third ATS setback in the last four games (2-2 SU). Over its past five contests, Notre Dame has barely outscored its opponents (78.2-77.2), hitting 45.1 percent from the floor while allowing 46.2 percent shooting.
Notre Dame is on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge in this rivalry, including a 94-87 home win last February as a 6½-point chalk, and the Irish are on a 5-0 ATS run at the Carrier Dome. The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 clashes, and the underdog has cashed nine times during this stretch.
The Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts following a SU loss, but they are on pointspread upticks of 4-0 on Saturday, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a non-cover. The Irish sport ATS trends of 4-0 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a pointspread loss, but they are also on ATS slides of 0-4 on Saturday, 2-5 on the road and 2-5 against winning teams.
The over for Syracuse is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 10-4 at home, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 in the Big East and 5-2 on Saturday, and the over for Notre Dame is on stretches of 19-9 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 on the road and 21-7 in Big East play. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in each of the last four contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(13) Georgetown (12-3, 6-5 ATS) at (3) Duke (15-1, 9-6 ATS)
Streaking Duke steps out of ACC play in pursuit of its eighth straight win when it plays host to Georgetown at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Blue Devils notched back-to-back ACC road wins in their last two games, including Wednesday’s 70-56 victory at Georgia Tech, and they barely squeaked out the spread-cover as a 12-point chalk, which ended a two-game ATS hiccup. Duke has gone 4-2 ATS in lined games during its current seven-game winning run, and over the last five games, the Devils have averaged 75.2 points while holding opponents to just 55.2 points and a stifling 36.3 percent shooting.
The Hoyas rolled over Syracuse 88-74 as a 6½-point home favorite Wednesday for their second consecutive win after a two-game SU skid, and the cover halted a three-game ATS slide. For the season, Georgetown has outscored opponents by more than 14 ppg (75.0-60.7). However, that gap closes considerably in road games (70.5-68.0), and in their last five outings overall, the Hoyas have averaged just a bucket better than their opponents (73.0-71.0).
In four meetings since the 2002-03 season, Duke is 3-1 against Georgetown, but the Hoyas are 3-1 ATS. In the most recent clash two years ago, the Blue Devils won 61-52, but fell short as a 10-point favorite.
The Blue Devils are on a 5-2 ATS run at home, but they are in ATS ruts of 1-6 on Saturday and 2-7 against the Big East. The Hoyas, meanwhile, have cashed in five of their last six games against ACC foes and are on a 4-1 in their last five following a SU win, but they are on pointspread declines of 1-4 after a spread-cover and 6-14 on Saturday.
The under for Duke is on tears of 19-7 overall, 15-3 at Cameron Indoor, 7-0 against the Big East, 5-0 after a SU win, 4-1 on Saturday and 36-17 in non-conference play. The under for Georgetown is on runs of 14-4 on the road and 20-7 on the highway against teams with a home win percentage above .600, but the over for the Hoyas is on rolls of 4-1 on Saturday and 7-3 against the ACC, and the over has cashed in three of the last four games between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
(6) Oklahoma (16-1, 7-5 ATS) at Texas A&M (15-2, 5-4 ATS)
Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma makes the trek to College Station to take on Texas A&M, which has ripped off victories in 11 of its last 12 games.
The Sooners dumped No. 11 Texas 78-63 as a 2½-point home favorite Monday, ending a six-game losing skid to their rivals while winning their fourth in a row overall following an upset loss at Arkansas. Oklahoma (2-0 SU and ATS in the Big 12) has been solid offensively, averaging 84.0 ppg on 47.8 percent shooting in their last five games, but defense has been the key, as the Sooners have allowed just 33.2 percent shooting during their current four-game run.
The Aggies topped No. 21 Baylor 84-73 Wednesday as a 1½-point home underdog as they bounced back from their SU and ATS loss at Oklahoma State in the Big 12 opener. Although A&M has been on a tear lately, much of its success has come against sub-par opposition, with four of the Aggies’ last 11 wins coming in non-lined games on their home floor. In its last five outings, A&M has averaged 66.8 ppg on 42.2 percent shooting, while allowing 61.4 ppg on 40.9 percent shooting.
These teams split last year’s meetings, with the host winning and covering in each case. However, Oklahoma is on a 4-1 ATS run in College Station, and the road team has cashed in six of the last eight clashes.
The Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big 12 games, but they are otherwise on negative pointspread streaks of 2-5 after a spread-cover, 16-35-2 on the highway and 17-40-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Aggies are on ATS rolls of 10-4 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 inside the Big 12, 8-3 against winning teams and a lengthy 39-19 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The under for Oklahoma is on tears of 8-2-1 on the road, 6-0 on Saturday and 8-1 in conference play, and the under for Texas A&M is on stretches of 5-2 at home, 6-2 in the Big 12, 10-3 after a SU win and 6-2 after an ATS triumph.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(2) Wake Forest (15-0, 7-4 ATS) at (10) Clemson (16-0, 5-5-1 ATS)
Something will have to give in a battle of ACC unbeatens when Wake Forest heads to Littlejohn Coliseum to take on Clemson.
The Demon Deacons followed up Sunday’s 92-89 home victory over then-No. 3 North Carolina with Wednesday’s 83-63 road rout of Boston College as a three-point chalk, and they’ve now cashed in their last four lined contests. Over the last six games, Wake has scored no less than 83 points and has broken 90 points three times, averaging 88.8 ppg in that stretch while allowing 72.2. In the last five games, the Deacons have hit 50.5 percent from the floor and allowed just 36.5 percent shooting.
The Tigers topped North Carolina State 63-51 last Saturday but settled for the push as a 12-point home favorite, falling to 0-2-1 ATS in their last three starts, all as a double-digit chalk. Clemson hasn’t been quite the offensive juggernaut that Wake has been, but over the last five games – all lined contests -- the Tigers have outscored their opponents by more than 12 ppg (79.4-67.0) and outshot them 46.2 percent to 41.5 percent.
Wake Forest is on a 6-0 ATS spree (4-2 SU) in this ACC rivalry, losing 80-75 in overtime on the road last year but getting the cash as an 11½-point underdog. In fact, these squads have gone to OT in three of the last four clashes. The Demon Deacons are also on a 5-0 ATS surge playing in Death Valley, and the road team has covered in seven of the last nine meetings.
The Deacons are on ATS surges of 4-0 against winning teams, 6-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 9-3 after a spread-cover and 7-3 on the road versus teams with a winning home record. The Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five ACC games, but they are on ATS skids of 1-4-1 at home and 2-6 at Littlejohn against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Clemson is on runs of 7-0 on Saturday and 4-0 at home, but the over is on streaks of 4-0 against winning teams and 12-4 at home against teams with a winning road record. Furthermore, the over for Wake Forest is on streaks of 4-1 on Saturday and 7-3 in the ACC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four straight contests at Clemson and is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and OVER
(16) Arizona State (14-3, 8-5 ATS) at (9) UCLA (14-2, 8-7 ATS)
Red-hot UCLA goes after its 11th straight victory when it takes on Arizona State in a battle of ranked Pac-10 teams at Pauley Pavilion.
The Bruins routed Arizona 83-60 Thursday night as an 11½-point home chalk for their third cover in four conference games. Over the past five games, UCLA has allowed more than 60 points just once, in an 83-74 victory at Oregon State as a 10½-point favorite. In that span, UCLA has scored 75.4 ppg and allowed just 59.0, and the Bruins have been even better at home this season, averaging 81.7 ppg and giving up just 57.2.
The Sun Devils fell to Southern Cal 61-49 as a one-point road favorite Thursday, ending a two-game SU and ATS run, though ASU is still 10-2 SU in its last 12 games (6-3 ATS in lined contests). Arizona State (2-2 SU and ATS in Pac-10 action) has been solid defensively all season, allowing 58.5 ppg.
UCLA has won the last eight meetings in this rivalry, going 4-4 ATS in that stretch. The Bruins cashed in the last year’s two contests following a 4-0 ATS run by ASU.
The Bruins are on ATS upticks of 6-0 against winning teams, 5-0 versus teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-3 after a SU win, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 1-5 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 2-7 after a SU win of more than 20 points. The Sun Devils, meanwhile, are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 7-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 on Saturday, 6-2-1 on the road and 6-2-1 inside the Pac-10.
The over for UCLA is on rolls of 9-3 on Saturday, 6-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and the over is 5-1 in ASU’s last six Saturday games. However, the under for the Sun Devils is on surges of 25-12 in Pac-10 play and 17-7 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Oklahoma State (12-3, 4-4-1 ATS) at (21) Baylor (13-3, 4-4 ATS)
Oklahoma State guns for its eighth straight victory – and its first against a ranked opponent this season – when it heads south to Waco for a Big 12 clash with 21st-ranked Baylor.
The Cowboys kicked off the Big 12 season with last Saturday’s 72-61 rout as a seven-point home favorite. Oklahoma State has played just three lined games (2-0-1 ATS) during its seven-game winning streak, but six of the seven victories were by double digits. Also, the Cowboys are averaging 89.3 ppg during the winning run. On the downside for Oklahoma State, its only two games against ranked teams were back-to-back blowout losses to Gonzaga (83-71) and Michigan State (94-79) in a preseason tournament.
Baylor started the Big 12 season with a 73-61 home win over Texas Tech, coming up short as a 13-point favorite. Then on Wednesday the Bears went to Texas A&M and fell 84-73 as a 1½-point road chalk. Baylor has followed up a six-game winning streak by losing two of its last three (0-3 ATS).
The home team has won five straight in this rivalry, going 3-0 ATS in the last three. Last year, Baylor won 79-71 as a 7½-point favorite in Waco, then the Cowboys got revenge with a 93-83 victory as a one-point chalk in Stillwater, Okla., halting an 0-4 ATS slide in this series. Finally, the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Oklahoma State has scored more than 70 points in 14 of their 15 games, reaching triple digits three times, and they rank fifth in the nation in scoring (85 ppg) and second in three-point shooting (42.2 percent). Like the Cowboys, the Bears have scored more than 70 points in all but one game, and they’re eighth nationally in scoring (82.2 ppg) and 13th in field-goal shooting (49.2 percent).
Oklahoma State is on ATS streaks of 8-1-1 in Big 12 play, 4-0-1 on Saturday and 5-2-1 after a spread-cover, but the Cowboys are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday but 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games.
The over is 5-0 in the last five in this series, and for the Bears, the over is on streaks of 20-6 overall, 9-4 at home, 35-16 in league play and 19-7 on Saturday. However, Oklahoma State has stayed low in four straight lined games overall, four of five in Big 12 play and five of seven on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Illinois (15-2, 9-5 ATS) at (7) Michigan State (14-2, 7-6 ATS)
Michigan State looks to remain perfect in Big Ten play and extend a 10-game overall winning streak when it hosts surging Illinois at the Breslin Events Center.
The Spartans built a big lead at Penn State on Wednesday, but had to hold on down the stretch, prevailing 78-73 but coming up just short as a 5½-point road chalk. Since suffering an ugly 98-75 loss to then-No. 1 North Carolina in Detroit, Michigan State has won 10 in a row (5-2-1 ATS), scoring at least 67 points in every game while topping 75 seven times. During the winning streak, Tom Izzo’s team has posted five consecutive blowout home wins, with an average victory margin of 22 ppg.
The Illini erased a one-point halftime deficit against Michigan on Wednesday in a big way, outscoring the Wolverines 36-20 over the final 20 minutes to post a 66-51 win and cover as a seven-point home favorite. Illinois has won nine of its last 10, the only blemish being a 10-point setback at Michigan, and the Illini are 3-1 SU and ATS in four games this year against Top 25 opponents.
Michigan State is 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in Big Ten action, while Illinois is 3-1 SU and ATS in league play.
The Spartans swept the season series last year, winning 51-41 as a nine-point home favorite and 59-51 as a two-point road chalk. Michigan State has won four of the last five SU and ATS after Illinois had gone 5-0 SU and ATS in the previous five. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings, and the favorite has gotten the money in each of the last four.
Illinois is on ATS streaks of 9-4 overall, 8-3 after a SU win, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 against winning teams and 6-0 on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Spartans are on pointspread runs of 4-2 overall, 4-2 in Big Ten play, 5-0 on Saturday and 5-2 against winning teams.
The last five meetings in this series have stayed under the total. Also, the under is on runs of 7-3 for the Spartans overall, 5-1 for the Spartans at home, 7-0 for the Illini on Saturday and 5-0 for the Illini against winning teams. However, Illinois has topped the total in four of its last five on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
South Carolina (12-3, 4-6 ATS) at (24) Tennessee (10-5, 7-6 ATS)
Tennessee will attempt to halt a rare two-game home losing skid when it welcomes South Carolina to Thompson-Boling Arena for an SEC clash.
The Vols hosted Kentucky on Tuesday and couldn’t stop the Wildcats’ Jodie Meeks, who tallied a school-record 54 points in a 90-72 victory as a six-point road underdog. Tennessee has followed up a 37-game home winning streak with consecutive losses in Knoxville, the other being an 89-79 overtime setback to Gonzaga as a 3½-point chalk on Jan. 7. In between, Bruce Pearl’s team went to Georgia last Saturday and knocked off the Bulldogs 86-77, barely cashing as an 8½-point road favorite.
South Carolina saw its three-game winning streak stopped in Wednesday’s ugly 85-68 loss at LSU as a four-point underdog, matching Tennessee’s 1-1 SU and ATS record in SEC play. The Gamecocks have given up 84 points or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS during this stretch. In its only two games against Top 25 opponents, South Carolina lost 98-87 at Clemson as a 2½-point home underdog and beat Baylor 85-84 as a 9½-point road underdog.
Tennessee went 3-0 (2-1 ATS) against the Gamecocks last year. During the regular season, the Vols rolled to a 24-point road win as a 6½-point favorite and a 33-point home victory as a 15-point chalk, but in the SEC tournament, South Carolina took Tennessee to the limit before falling 89-87 as a 12½-point underdog. The Vols are 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings, but the Gamecocks are 4-2 ATS in the last six, all as an underdog. In fact, the pup has cashed in seven of the last 10 series meetings.
Tennessee ranks sixth in the nation in scoring at 83.5 ppg despite shooting only 45.5 percent. The Vols have scored at least 72 points in every game this season, going for 80 or more eight times. On the defensive end, however, Tennessee is surrendering 76.1 ppg on 44.7 percent shooting, allowing 77 or more in six of its last eight outings. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are putting up 80 ppg on 47.4 percent shooting, and they had scored at least 72 points in their first 13 games before being held to 68 in their first two SEC contests. South Carolina gives up 66.6 ppg on 41.1 percent shooting.
The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover, but only 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record. South Carolina is on ATS hot streaks of 36-17 on the road, 29-8 on the road versus teams with a winning home record, 4-1 after a SU defeat and 4-0 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-0 for Tennessee overall, 4-1 for Tennessee at home, 4-0 for Tennessee in SEC play, 5-0 for Tennessee on Saturday, 8-3 for South Carolina overall and 5-0 for South Carolina on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and OVER
(1) Pittsburgh (16-0, 7-4 ATS) at (20) Louisville (12-3, 8-7 ATS)
The day’s third and final matchup between ranked Big East teams comes from Freedom Hall, where Louisville will attempt to end top-ranked Pitt’s perfect season.
The Cardinals needed overtime to knock off No. 13 Notre Dame on Monday, outscoring the Irish 16-2 in the extra session on their way to an 87-73 victory as a 6½-point home favorite. Since a surprising 56-55 home loss to UNLV, Louisville has won four in a row (3-1 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS to start the Big East season.
Pitt shook off a sluggish first half against South Florida on Wednesday and kept its unbeaten season intact with a 75-62 victory, coming up short as a 20½-point home favorite. It was the third consecutive double-digit win for the Panthers and 14th in 16 games this season.
These teams met twice last season, and both were nail-biters. First, Louisville prevailed 75-73 as a one-point road underdog, then Pitt got revenge with a 76-66 overtime victory as a 5½-point underdog in the Big East tournament. Since Louisville joined the Big East, the squads have split their six meetings, with the Panthers going 4-2 ATS and the underdog going 4-2 ATS.
Pitt has the statistical edge on both ends of the court, scoring 77.5 ppg (47.5 percent) and giving up 58.7 ppg (38 percent), while Louisville puts up 75.4 (43.1 percent) and allows 60.7 ppg (38.6 percent). In Big East play, the Panthers are outscoring opponents by 14 ppg (78-64), and the Cardinals are outscoring conference foes by eight ppg (73-65).
Pitt is 5-0 in road/neutral site games this season (4-1 ATS), and Jamie Dixon’s troops beat the only ranked opponent they’ve faced this season, a 70-54 road win at Georgetown as a 3½-point underdog. The Cardinals are 9-1 at Freedom Hall (6-4 ATS), and their last two games – a one-point win at No. 18 Villanova and Monday’s victory over Notre Dame – were their first against Top 25 competition.
The Panthers are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-2 in Big East play, 4-1 on Saturday, 5-2 versus winning teams and 5-0 after a non-cover. Louisville is 25-12-1 ATS in its last 38 games overall, 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 Big East battles and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on Saturday, but the Cardinals have failed to cover in five of their last seven at home.
The over is 16-7 in Pitt’s last 23 games overall and 13-3 in its last 16 Big East games, but Louisville is on under streaks of 17-7-1 at home and 21-9-1 after a SU win. Finally, the under hit in the first four meetings in this rivalry, but the over was the play in both of last year’s matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITT
Ohio State (12-3, 6-5 ATS) at (25) Michigan (13-4, 8-4 ATS)
Fresh off a blowout home win over Indiana, Ohio State now makes the trek to Ann Arbor for a battle archrival with Michigan.
The Buckeyes pounded the undermanned Hoosiers on Tuesday, rolling to a 77-53 victory as a 16-point home favorite to end a two-game Big Ten losing skid. Since starting the season 9-0, Ohio State has split its last six contests (2-3 ATS in lined games). During this six-game stretch, Thad Matta’s club is 2-2 SU and ATS in conference play, but 0-2 (1-1 ATS) on the road.
Ohio State won its first two games against Top 25 foes (five-point wins over Miami, Fla., and Notre Dame), but it is 0-2 (1-1 ATS) against ranked Big Ten foes (Michigan State and Minnesota).
Michigan got steamrolled in the second half at Illinois on Wednesday, watching a 31-30 halftime lead turn into a 66-51 loss, failing to cover as a seven-point underdog. The Wolverines are 3-2 (2-3 ATS) in conference action, alternating spread-covers in the five contests, but they’re 2-0 SU and ATS in Big Ten home games. For the season, Michigan is 10-1 SU and 6-1 ATS at Crisler Arena.
The Wolverines ended a seven-game losing skid to their rivals with last year’s 80-70 upset home victory over Ohio State as a five-point underdog. In fact, Michigan cashed in both meetings last year after going 0-5-1 ATS versus the Buckeyes in the previous six matchups.
Ohio State has failed to cash in four of its last five games against winning teams, but otherwise the Buckeyes are on pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 9-4 after an outright victory. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after either a SU loss or a non-cover, but it has failed to cash in seven of its last 10 league games.
The under is on runs of 9-4 for Ohio State on the road, 39-17-1 for Ohio State on Saturday, 12-4 for Michigan in Big Ten play, 7-1 for Michigan after an ATS setback and 6-2 for Michigan after a SU loss. However, the over is 6-2 in the Wolverines’ last eight overall and 5-1 in their last six at Crisler Arena. Finally, the total has alternated in the last 10 series meetings, with the most recent clash going over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) California (15-2, 11-3 ATS) at Stanford (11-3, 10-3 ATS)
Cal puts its nine-game winning streak on the line when it makes the short jaunt to Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto, Calif., for the first meeting of the season against hated rival Stanford.
The Golden Bears have been idle since last Saturday’s thrilling 88-85 triple-overtime win at Washington as a six-point road underdog, which came two days after a 57-50 win at Washington State as a three-point pup. Not only has Cal won nine in a row – scoring at least 72 points in seven of the contests – it has gone 8-0 ATS in lined action. In starting the Pac-10 season 4-0 SU and ATS, the Bears are averaging 73.8 ppg and allowing 65.3 ppg.
Stanford went 10-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in non-conference play, but the Cardinal have lost three of their first four Pac-10 contests, including back-to-back one-point losses at Washington (84-83) and Washington State (55-54) last weekend. On the bright side, since a horrific 90-60 home loss to Arizona State as a one-point favorite in its conference debut, Stanford has cashed in its last three games.
The Cardinal have won eight of the last 10 series meetings, including the last three in a row, and they’re 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes. Last year in Palo Alto, Stanford beat the Bears 79-69, coming up short as a 10½-point home chalk, as Cal improved to 3-2 ATS in its last five trips to Maples Pavilion, including 2-0 ATS in the last two. In fact, the visitor has cashed in each of the last five series meetings.
In addition to their current 8-0 ATS run, the Bears are on positive pointspread streaks of 12-5 on the road and 5-1 on Saturday. Stanford is on ATS upticks of 6-1 overall, 10-3 at home, 6-1 in Pac-10 play and 8-1 versus winning teams.
This has been an “under” series in recent years, with 10 of the last 14 meetings overall and six of the last eight at Stanford staying low, but the last three in a row have gone over the posted price. Also, most recently, the over is on streaks of 18-8 for Stanford overall, 12-3 for Stanford in Pac-10 play, 7-3 for Stanford on Saturday, 22-10 for Cal overall, 20-8 for Cal on the highway, 20-6 for Cal in conference action and 10-2 for Cal on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami, Fla. (13-3, 6-5 ATS) at (5) North Carolina (15-2, 7-8 ATS)
With its first ACC victory finally out of the way, North Carolina returns home for a conference battle against streaking Miami, which has won six in a row.
The Tar Heels won their first 14 games, all in non-league action, then started the ACC season with consecutive upset losses to Boston College (85-78 as a 23-point home favorite) and Wake Forest (92-89 as a 6½-point home chalk). But they went to Virginia on Thursday and took their frustrations out on the Cavaliers, rolling to an 83-61 win as a 16-point road chalk. It was the 15th time in 17 games that North Carolina had scored at least 83 points.
Miami started ACC play earlier than most squads, getting demolished 91-72 against Clemson as a three-point home favorite on Dec. 21. However, since then, the Hurricanes have ripped off six consecutive wins (2-2 ATS), including a pair of conference victories over Boston College (77-71 as a 2½-point road underdog) and Maryland (62-60 as a 7½-point home chalk). The ‘Canes were held to a season-low point total in Wednesday’s victory over the Terrapins, ending a string of nine straight games scoring at least 70 points.
North Carolina has won three in row (SU and ATS) and five of the last six (4-2 ATS) in this series. In last year’s lone meeting, the Tar Heels went to South Beach and posted a 98-82 victory as an eight-point road favorite. The visitor has cashed in four of the last five head-to-head matchups.
The Tar Heels are second in the nation in scoring (93.6 ppg) and 11th in field-goal offense (49.2 percent), and while they give up 70.4 ppg, they hold the opposition to only 39.5 percent shooting overall and 31.3 percent from three-point range, Miami is putting up 75.7 ppg on just 43.2 percent shooting, but the ‘Canes surrender only 61.8 ppg (37.2 percent). Also, Miami holds opponents to 28.1 percent shooting from long range, which ranks eighth nationally.
Miami is on pointspread runs of 4-1 on the road, 7-1-3 on Saturday, 11-1-2 after an ATS setback and 17-8-2 when facing a team with a winning percentage higher than .600. Meanwhile, despite cashing at Virginia on Thursday, the Tar Heels are mired in ATS slumps of 1-4 at home, 1-5 in ACC play, 1-6 after an outright win and 0-4 on Saturday.
For the Hurricanes, the over is on runs of 8-2 on Saturday, 4-0 against winning teams and 14-4 after a non-cover. For UNC, the over is on runs of 4-1 at home and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the last four meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
BRENT CROW
VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE
Recommendation: Mississippi State
Mississippi State has played very well since a home loss to San Diego on December 30th. Since that game, the Bulldogs have demolished Houston and Western Kentucky at home and got a nice road win at Arkansas last Saturday to open SEC play. They seem to be coming together with JC point guard Dee Bost finding his rhythm on the court and Jarvis Vernado controlling the paint on both ends of the court. Bost has played his best three games of the year during the winning streak as he gets comfortable in Rick Stansbury’s system. This week the Bulldogs should extend their winning streak to five games with home contests against Alabama and Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is 11-4 on the year, but has benefitted from a soft non-conference schedule. Sophomore center AJ Ogilvy sat out Vandy’s 10-point road loss to Kentucky but even with him back in the lineup, I expect this team to struggle to score on a consistent basis in SEC play. The three-point shot has typically been a big aspect of the Commodores’ offense but the success rate against better competition has thrown up red flags. In their five losses, Vandy shot 17-of-80, 21% from deep. With Mississippi State’s ability to defend, points are going to be hard to come by for the road team. Lay the points.
FAIRWAY JAY
WYOMING AT UNLV
Recommendation: Over
Wyoming senior guard Brandon Ewing leads the Mountain West Conference in scoring, assists and minutes played as part of Wyoming’s 81 ppg offense. The Cowboys have four starters averaging over 14 ppg , they go to the free throw line at any extremely high rate and overall, play at a very fast pace. But while their offense is clicking, the defense has been anything but stifling at 76 ppg allowed. In four of the Cowboys’ recent road games against quality competition they allowed 91, 90, 113 and 86 points. UNLV doesn’t play at an rapid pace but they will welcome the opportunity to run up and down against a team that plays little to no defense. The Rebels lead the league in made 3-point shots and figure to get plenty of open looks against weaker Wyoming. UNLV coach Lon Kruger was concerned with his team’s lack of defense in a recent loss at TCU after allowing over 56% shooting and 80 points. Also of concern is the Rebels’ league-worst rebounding margin. Both these teams took over 24 shot attempts beyond the arch during last year’s meeting in Las Vegas in a 78-71 Rebels win. UNLV will be a double-digit favorite and plenty of scoring is expected again.
MARTY OTTO
JAMES MADISON AT GEORGE MASON
Recommendation: James Madison
Depending on some mid-week results, this line could come out anywhere from +7 to +9 giving us plenty of wiggle room with a good underdog. The market has been slow to pick up on James Madison’s better play of late. They suffered through early injuries and departures early in the season but have gotten some stellar play from freshmen Julius Wells and Devon Moore, who are averaging double-digits. Andrey Semenov has also provided solid minutes in his freshman campaign, proving to be a versatile do-it-all type of player. The return of Juwann James -- the stabilizing force for the Dukes -- has turned this team into a balanced and capable unit. They have won seven of nine since James came back from injury, covering all but one of those games. The defense has been especially strong, holding five straight opponents to 41% shooting or less. Fundamentally, JMU matches up very well with Mason.They have the inside strength and the length at guard to frustrate the Patriots. This one should be a relatively low scoring bruiser, one where either team could win in the end, but neither pulls away. Take the points with JMU.
ED CASH
MARQUETTE AT PROVIDENCE
Recommendation: Providence
Marquette is off to a great start this year in the Big East, as they are currently tied atop the standings with a 4-0 mark. The Golden Eagles are also 15-2 on the year and are ranked firmly in the top 20 in the nation. This week could serve as a letdown as they travel to Providence to take on the Friars. Marquette will not have played since their convincing win over West Virginia last weekend and the time off could work against them and their seven-game winning streak. Providence also has the week off after its tough loss last weekend at Georgetown. The Friars are 3-1 in conference play, defeating St. John’s, Cincinnati and DePaul before falling to the Hoyas. Providence has won nine straight on its home court after opening the season with a home loss to Northeastern. The Friars have gotten excellent play from their bench, with seven players averaging between 8.6 and 13.9 ppg. They should match up well with the three solid guards from Marquette, as four of their top five scorers are perimeter-type players. There is a lot of parity in the upper-half of the Big East. Marquette has the tools to contend for the title but Providence is no slouch and looks to be improving on a daily basis under first-year head coach Keno Davis. Back the Friars this weekend.
ERIN RYNNING
MILWAUKEE AT LA CLIPPERS
Recommendation: Milwaukee
The Bucks will hit the Staple Center for a Saturday night date with the Clippers. The Bucks look to have the superior state of mind for this contest after coming together over the last month. Head coach Scott Skiles is once again working his magic in the NBA. The Bucks were one of the worst teams in the league in terms of rebounding and defense the last few years but with virtually the same personnel, Skiles has now turned both weaknesses into above average capacities. Andrew Bogut has really been a key cog in their improvement, while deserving votes for the league’s most improved player. Meanwhile, the Clippers are still the Clippers.They are stuck with Mike Dunleavy as a coach and there has already been plenty of unrest with this team as newly signed Baron Davis is already wearing out his welcome. It’s almost amazing how inefficient this offense is and in facing a solid defense in Milwaukee, things don’t expect to get any better. Take the Bucks to deliver the goods with two teams going in opposite directions as the All-Star break approaches.
ROB VENO
NEW ORLEANS AT DETROIT
Recommendation: New Orleans
The Pistons will be playing their fourth game in five nights and after playing at defensively inept Indiana and Oklahoma City, they may be caught off guard by new Orleans’ defensive intensity. That intensity combined with the Pistons’ sheer lack of offensive firepower (88 ppg last nine games) figures to have the host struggling for points. The Hornets present matchup difficulties as Allen Iverson meets his quickness in counterpart Chris Paul whose defensive prowess can fluster anyone in the league. I also like the insertion of offensive-minded shooting guard Rasul Butler into the starting lineup (27 points vs. Clippers last Saturday) as he’ll force budding Detroit guard Rodney Stuckey to work on defense. The multi-faceted frontline of New Orleans with Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic and David West should be too much for a far less talented Pistons group. Detroit’s bench strength will be offset by Hornets’ head coach Byron Scott’s rotation, which has been significantly fortified by the addition of Antonio Daniels. The Hornets enter this one off a game at Cleveland but expect a 48-minute effort and their talent to carry them to a spread-covering victory.
DONNIE BLACK
WASHINGTON STATE AT OREGON
Recommendation: Oregon
From the looks of it, both Oregon and Washington State are in for long seasons in the PAC-10. The Ducks’ four-year run of virtually the same starting lineup finally came to a halt this offseason and Washington State’s top two offensive weapons, Derrick Lowe and Kyle Weaver, graduated. Rebuilding is in full effect for the two schools. The Cougars have found it nearly impossible to score of late, averaging 52.4 ppg over their last five games. They rank as one of the nation’s worst at getting to the free throw line (13 attempts per game) and have shown little ability to consistently knock down the outside shot (31% 3-pt). Had it not been for a 19-of-26, 73% effort from the free throw line in a one-point home win over Stanford last Saturday, the Cougars would be winless in league play. Oregon had yielded similar results after being manhandled at home by USC and UCLA and then failing to reach 60 points in back-to-back losses to the Arizona schools. From a fundamental standpoint, Wazzu may have the defensive numbers but it has yet to offset a truly anemic offense. Stanford recently gave up 90 points at home to Arizona State and 84 on the road to Washington, yet the Cougars could manage only 55 against the Cardinal. Oregon may not be known for its defensive prowess but in this matchup, on their home court, they’ll provide enough offense to come away with the win.
HELMUT SPORTS
UAB AT MEMPHIS
Recommendation: Memphis
Since Calipari put highly touted freshman Tyreke Evans at the point, the Tigers have gone 5-0, winning by an average of 22.0 ppg. The Memphis defense has also turned it up a notch heading into the early portion of conference play, holding its last five opponents to 34.2% shooting from the field. The Tigers currently hold a 44-game C-USA conference-winning streak. Coming into the season, the Blazers were expected to make a push for the NCAA tournament but by the looks of it, they will need to win the conference tournament for a bid. They were dealt a huge blow December 15th when four players were suddenly no longer a part of the team with Armon Bassett and Terrence Roderick deciding to leave the program and Ed Berrios and Jeremy Mayfield were ruled academically ineligible. UAB is left with just eight players on their roster, only six of whom are on scholarship.The Blazers have recently had an opportunity to play some tougher teams with their reduced roster and have not fared well, losing by 20 to Louisville, 19 to Houston and 4 to Butler. This looks like the classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions and I feel confident in laying the points with the Tigers
Lockoftheday
Today's Lock: Pitt Panthers +2.5
The #1 team in the nation is an underdog!? Say what?! This matchup requires further research. We dove into the research on this Pitt/Louisville game. We came up loving Pitt today. Louisville's team is chalk full of awesome athletes who can jump and run with the best of them. Having athletes who can jump out of the gym does not equate to victories. Louisville turns the ball over too often. Louisville takes too many ill-advised shots. Making mistakes against a quality team like Pitt will be costly. PITT PLUS THE POINTS IS A LOCK!!
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Oklahoma State at Baylor
Prediction: Oklahoma State
The Bears have lacked intensity at times this season on the defensive end. While they had little trouble with some of the "softies" on their schedule, they couldn't handle the offensive talent of Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Wake Forest. The Bears have now given up 78 or more points in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State will make Baylor work on the defensive end, and the Cowboys are battle-tested. OSU has already faced Gonzaga, Michigan State, and Washington away from home, and most recently beat Texas A&M by 11-points. They're scoring 85 ppg, with five players averaging in double-figures, led by guard James Anderson's 17.8 ppg. OSU's lineup is a bit misleading. At first glance, you'll see they are "guard-heavy." But those top guards go 6'5, 6'6, and 6'6, which makes them a very tough matchup. In fact, Anderson, Obi Muonelo, and Terrel Harris, (all three listed as guards), combine for 20.4 rebounds per game! They can take the defender inside off the dribble, or hit from area code three. OSU's top five scorers average between 2.8 and 6.9 three-point attempts per contest. All but one is hitting at least 42.6% of those long distance shots! I have this one going right to the wire, making those generous points worth taking. OSU beat Baylor 93-83 in their final meeting last year. I expect another high-scoring affair with the underdog taking home the cash. I'm taking the points with Oklahoma State on Saturday afternoon.
Cajun Sports
UAB Blazers vs. Memphis Tigers -13
PLAY: 2* Memphis Tigers -13
The UAB Blazers hit the CUSA road for a Saturday matchup against the Memphis Tigers at the FedEx Forum in Memphis. UAB enters tonights game with a record of 10-6 SU overall and 3-4 SU on the road. Memphis is once again the elite team in their conference with a record of 13-3 SU and a 9-1 mark at home.
This venue has certainly caused the Blazers some grief especially in their last two visits here as they were defeated by 38 and 25 points respectively. Tonights matchup has all the makings of a repeat performance with the Tigers relentless defense and the fact that the Blazers are short on talent and depth.
Memphis up-tempo style on offense will also be a problem for the Blazers as they are 12-29 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots per game since 1997. The Blazers are 1-9 ATS versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game on the season over the last 3 years. They also struggle against good offensive teams going 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams scoring 77+ points per game over the last 3 seasons.
We also see that the Memphis Tigers are active in a CBB system that tells us to Play ON CBB favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after a combined score of 110 points or less, with just two starters returning from last season. This system has a record of 48-14 ATS the last five seasons, 26-5 ATS the last three seasons and a perfect 5-0 ATS this year!
Our Team Performance Ratings Index projects a 19.6 point advantage for the Memphis Tigers in tonights contest. Combine the fundamental, technical and situational support and we have a play on the host in this matchup, so lay the chalk as Memphis continues the Blazers nightmare at the FedEx Forum.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Memphis Tigers 88 UAB Blazers 65
Nelly
Michigan - over Ohio State
This is a favorable situation for Michigan to bounce back from a tough loss. The Wolverines were dealt a revenge loss on Wednesday as Illinois soundly won but Michigan has bounced back from losses exceptionally well. Michigan has lost just once at home all season long and the home team has won eight of the last ten meetings in this series. Ohio State enters this game off a big win over Indiana and the Buckeyes were soundly defeated in both Big Ten road games. Ohio State barely squeaked by Iowa at home in conference play and also was crushed by West Virginia at home so the 10-0 start to the season appears to have been misleading despite a few nice wins. Ohio State's lone road win this season came against a Miami team that has underperformed and the Buckeyes have slipped defensively away from home. Michigan has been the more consistent scoring team and the Wolverines are allowing just 60 points per game at home. The Buckeyes appear to be headed in the wrong direction with a 3-3 mark in the last six games while Michigan is capable of a big win in this match-up that will have a significant home court edge.
Jim Feist
ORLANDO MAGIC at DENVER NUGGETS
Take: DENVER NUGGETS
Denver's not getting much respect with this betting number. That's odd for a team that is 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS the last 8 games. It's never easy playing on the road, and Denver is a very tough place to play with its thin air in the high altitude. Orlando is from a warm weather climate and playing its fourth straight road game. It's also the second of a tough back-to-back spot, playing at the Lakers Friday, while Denver is rested. Play the Nuggets.
James Patrick
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga
The Zags are a definite Final Four caliber team that has overcome a recent slump and is playing some great basketball of late. The Dons are1-5 ATS on the road this season and have dropped 5 straight contests. The West Coast Athletic Conference has had their way with the Dons with a 9-4 ATS record and Gonzaga is a solid 21-9 in Saturday action. Our Saturday selection is Gonzaga Bulldogs in College Basketball action.
Brad Diamond
Play on: Northern Iowa over Drake
Once again the lines makers have under estimated the NIU group. After playing stellar back-to-back defensive games, they go on the road in a must win conference setting.With battles recently against hated Illinois State and Wichita State, feel emotion counts the visitors' side this afternoon.
Tom Freese
Georgetown at Duke
Georgetown is 18-32 ATS after a combined score of a 155 or more points in their last game and they are 6-14 ATS their last 20 Saturday games. The Hoyas are 1-4 ATS off an ATS win. Duke is 60-32 ATS their last Saturday games and they are 5-0-1 ATS as home favorites of 7.0 to 12.5 points. The Blue Devils are 5-2 ATS their last 7 home games. PLAY ON DUKE -
Dave Cokin
Play: Texas A&M +3
Oklahoma is better than Texas A&M, but this is a good spot to go for the upset with the Aggies. The Sooners are off by far their biggest game of the season as they were beyond pumped up for the Texas game. A&M is not as strong as they've been in recent years, but they're still very capable, especially at home and the scheduling dynamics definitely favor them today. I'll got for A&M to pull the surprise.
Alex Smart
Georgetown @ Duke Under 137
Georgetown of the Big East Conference goes into ACC territory to play the Duke Blue Devils in Durham NC in afternoon game on national tv this Saturday . This is a pretty important game for a non conference matchup, as it could decide seedings come tournament time. Needless to say both teams will be primed and motivated to forward a top notch effort.The Hoyas are now 12-3 overall and 3-2 in Big East play after an impressive 88-74 win over Syracuse at the Verizon Center last time out. Duke enters the game with a 15-1 overall record and a 3-0 mark in the ACC play.
Both these teams have very capable offenses, and extremely tough defenses. Gtown allows just 60,7 PPG, and have gone under in 14 of their L/18 road games, while Duke gives up just 60.2 PPG, and have gone under in 15 of their L/18 home games. The Blue Devils defense has been particularly stingy of late allowing, just one opponent to eclipse the 60 point plateau in their L/5 games. In big games like this defense, is almost always the name of the game. With that said , I am expecting a very physical affair , that remains on the low side of the number.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 7-0 in Blue Devils last 7 vs. Big East. Under is 20-7 in Hoyas last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Play Under
Pure Lock
MIAMI OHIO @ KENT STATE
PLAY: KENT STATE (-) PTS
Mikey Sports
Marquette @ Providence
Play: Providence (+) pts
R&R Totals
Kansas @ Colorado
Play: UNDER THE TOTAL