Jeff Benton
My overall free pick run is 42-20 heading into Saturday's complimentary release on Cal over Stanford in Pac-10 action.
Both of these squads have been spread-covering machines this season – Cal at 11-3 ATS, Stanford at 10-3 ATS. But how do you not take points with the smoking-hot Bears right now? They’ve won nine straight games (8-0 ATS in lined action), including starting the Pac-10 season with four consecutive wins and covers. In fact, these archrivals have faced the same four conference opponents to this point, and here are the results:
Cal beat Arizona (69-55) and Arizona State (81-71) at home, while knocking off Washington State (57-50) and Washington (88-85 in triple-overtime) last weekend on the road. Meanwhile, the Cardinal lost to Arizona State (90-60) and beat Arizona (76-60) at home, while dropping a pair of one-point decisions at Washington State and Washington. This isn’t to say that the Cardinal aren’t good – they look to be pretty solid. But in my opinion, Cal is better.
Furthermore, when you compare the teams’ non-conference schedules – Cal played road or neutral-site games against UNLV, Florida State, Missouri and Utah, while Stanford’s best non-conference foe was below-average Texas Tech at home – and it’s easy to see which team is more battle tested.
Now, I know the Stanford crowd will be even more revved up than usual for this showdown, seeing as former coach Mike Montgomery – who left Stanford after a long, successful run to coach the NBA’s Warriors, then flamed out and took the Cal job – is making his return to Palo Alto. But Montgomery has proved very quickly at Cal that he’s a quality college coach and he’ll have his players focused on the task at hand tonight. Throw in the fact that the Bears have won four straight games outright as an underdog during their nine-game winning streak and covered each of the last two years when going to Stanford, and I’ll take the points.
5♦ CAL
Scott Delaney
Today's Selection
Great ACC battle, but the bottom line is the Seminoles have played some much better competition in my eyes, including Duke and Pittsburgh in their last five outings, and they’re going to be ready to take care of business against the visiting Terps. Maryland has lost two of its last three, including a home setback to Morgan State on Jan. 7 and its last outing, in Miami, on Wednesday night. The Terps are mired in losing spread streaks of 1-4 versus the ACC and 0-5 after an ATS win, while the ‘Noles have covered seven straight conference games and are on a 13-4 ATS run overall.
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take Northeastern on the road.
Don't look now but this Northeastern team is pretty darn good. The Huskies have now won five straight games and eight of nine and when I say win I mean win big. Bill Coen's squad has been pounding opponents by double digits game after game after game. They also downed a solid Big East team in Providence earlier in the season and won in Indiana by a billion about a month ago allowing only 42 points. Yes I know the Hoosiers are very very down right now but that is still an impressive feat by anybody in Bloomington.
Just a week and a half ago Northeastern dismantled Hofstra this same 73-50. Sure the Pride have a measure of revenge here and will be fired up at home but Tom Pecora's squad is just flat out not as good as they have been in recent years.
Hofstra has been phenomenal at home over the past few seasons but the times are a lot leaner right now and for them to be able to compete, even at home, against Matt Janning and the red hot Huskies is just asking too much.
The Pride have dropped two of three on their home court and those were games against weaker teams in Iona and Drexel. Now they face a rising beast in Northeastern (relatively speaking) and more than likely will get smacked!
Jake Timlin
Your Saturday selection is the Clemson Tigers.
A pair of unbeaten teams and a pick’em price I must go with Clemson at home against Wake Forest. After all given that Clemson is all but unbeatable at home as they have won their last 17 games in Death Valley, including their last two home games against Wake Forest there is just no passing up on the Tigers today. Not when Wake Forest is due for a major let down as they play their second straight road game and their third road game in their last four contests. Meanwhile, talk about favorable scheduling for Clemson as they have yet to leave campus this year as they will be fully rested having last played last Saturday. Flat out, while Wake Forest is one of the elite teams this season so too is Clemson and thanks to being at home minus a very favorable number I look for the Tigers to remain undefeated as they squeak out a win a large enough win to cover. All Clemson at home today!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
We’re sticking with the NBA tonight as we’re going up to Denver where we’re taking the Orlando Magic on the road at the Nuggets.
The Magic come into this game as about a 1-point favorite, depending on where you go, and they’ll blow past that with a strong victory over the Denver Nuggets.
With last night’s 109-103 outright win at the Los Angeles Lakers as a 4 1/2 point underdog, the Magic are now on a six-game SU winning streak and have covered in each of their last five games.
Just like last season, the Magic have been strong on the road this season, going 15-5-1 ATS away from home, where they’re outscoring their opponents, on average, 103.6-97.5.
Orlando is also 11-2 ATS its last 13 games on the road and is on an 11-0 ATS win streak on the road at Western Conference teams.
The Magic will look to continue that winning trend against the West at a Denver Nuggets team that’s 7-9 ATS its last 16 games overall and is only 1-2 ATS its last three games, all of which have come at home.
Orlando will continue its hot streak and get over on yet another Western Conference opponent. Take the streaking Magic on the road in this one tonight.
3♦ MAGIC
Karl Garrett
New Orleans -1' at DETROIT
Let's stick in the pros tonight as I back New Orleans against Detroit.
The wheels have fallen off the Pistons, who lost their 4th straight last night at Oklahoma City. Detroit was down just four after 3 quarters, but they let the Thunder score the first 13-points of the 4th to pull away.
New Orleans was also on the short-side last night at Cleveland, but the Cavaliers are now 20-0 at home, so no shame in that setback. The Hornets are still a positive 11-8 straight up on the road this year, while the Pistons return home to the Auburn Palace saddled with a money-burning 6-12 spread mark.
Detroit has won and covered the last three series meetings, but currently the Pistons go through too many scoring droughts for me to think they are going to win this game against one of the best in the west.
1♦ NEW ORLEANS
Bobby Maxwell
New Orleans -1' at DETROIT
Both teams are coming into this matchup off losses Friday night, but we're going to play the younger, better Hornets in this one. They fell in Cleveland Friday while the Pistons went to Oklahoma City and lost to the Thunder.
Detroit has lost four in a row and they haven't lost five in a row in five years. They got beat Friday in Oklahoma City 89-79, and it was actually worse than the score shows. The Pistons aren't rebounding and they were dominated on the glass Friday 52-35 by the Thunder and Detroit is only averaging 93.6 points per game - second worst in the Eastern Conference.
The Hornets haven't been shooting lights out either, dropping seven of their last eight, all by an average of 14.3 points. They are hitting just 36.9 percent from the floor and just 23.4 percent from beyond the 3-point line. They hit jsut 37.3 percent from the floor Friday in a 92-78 loss tot he Cavaliers.
New Orleans has the young legs to recover for the second game of a back-to-back while the Pistons are a little older and need a little more rest. Play the Hornets in this one as Detroit is struggling on all facets.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Wake Forest +2 at CLEMSON
Somewhat stunned with the line in this one as one of the best teams in the country in Wake Forest is actually getting some points in this matchup. We'll certainly grab the points wtih the Demon Deacons in this one.
Wake Forest beat North Carolina 92-89 on Sunday and then didn't let the emotion of that let them down as they went to Boston College and crushed the Eagles 83-63. Look at what they've done recently, going to Provo, Utah and beating BYU 94-87 to end the Cougars 53-game home winning streak, knocking off the Tar Heels as a 6 1/2-point home 'dog and then crushed the Eagles as a 3-point favorite.
The Deacons have now scored more than 80 points in six straight games, 10 of their last 11 and 12 of their 15 on the season. And these youngsters can play defense, too, ranking fourth nationally in field-goal defense at 36.3 percent and third in defending the 3-point line at 28.8 percent.
Wake Forest has won seven of the last nine meetings in this rivalry and one of the losses came in OT last year when the Deacons failed to cover as an 11 1/2-point underdog. The road team has covered in seven of the last nine. Look for Wake to keep its perfect season in tact with this one. Play the Demon Deacons.
4♦ WAKE FOREST
Sports Gambling Hotline
Oklahoma at TEXAS A&M +3'
College buckets today, and we take the points with the host Aggies who are 44-4 straight up on their home floor the last 3-plus seasons, including 13-1 thus far this season.
This is a big revenge spot for the Aggies who were walloped 64-37 last March at Oklahoma in a rather lop-sided affair.
Texas A&M does catch Oklahoma in a bit of a sticky spot, as the Sooners stopped a 5-game slide versus conference rival Texas on Monday this week in convincing fashion.
The matchups are not bad at all for A&M in this one, as the Aggies do have a few big bodies to throw on Blake Griffin, and they do have an experienced back court that should control the tempo today at the Reed Center.
Okie has dropped their last pair of visits to College Station, so we are not sure why they are actually favored in this spot this afternoon.
We think the wrong team is favored here, take the points with A&M, as they make amends for last March's no-show in Norman.
Play on the Aggies.
4♦ TEXAS A&M
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on LA Clippers +3
The Clippers are long overdue for a win and they are in an excellent position to make it happen Saturday. Milwaukee will have tired legs having played last night in a track meet in Sacramento . The Clippers will also be especially disgusted coming into this one having lost their previous game by 17 points so that should get LA playing with some added intensity. Also, Milwaukee crushed the Clippers 119-85 on December 20th in Milwaukee . Plays on underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 25-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Northern Iowa +6
This is an in-state rivalry game that will go right down to the wire so I'm taking the points. Drake is not nearly the team it was a season ago but it is still getting that kind of respect with this line. Last season, Drake was an 8.5-point favorite in this matchup and it had to hang on to win by four points over the Panthers who easily covered the spread. Northern Iowa comes into this big rivalry game on fire, having won 5 in a row SU and ATS, including big wins at Creighton and Evansville . The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings so I'll take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oregon +1
It's been a tough season thus far for the Ducks, but I'll take them at home catching a point against a Washington State team that has had all sorts of trouble scoring points. While the Cougars are 10-6 on the season, they are only 4-10 ATS in line games. Oregon is off to an 0-5 start in Pac-10 play and it will really be gunning for a win here against a team it has defeated in 20 of the last 24 meetings and 10 of the last 11 home meetings. Washington State has lost 5 in a row ATS and is 0-10 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games this season, losing by an average score of 54.9 to 58.5 in these spots. Take the Ducks!
Nick Parsons
New York Knicks vs Philadelphia
We seemed to put a jinx on New York when we wrote them up right here last week. In that write-up we mentioned that the Knicks were playing some of their best basketball of the season at the time of the writing. Of course they proceeded to endure a three game losing streak but note that the defeats at Oklahoma City and Dallas were both very tight losses. Then, after a rare, ugly loss at Houston, the Knicks bounced back with a strong effort at New Orleans and they knocked off the Hornets. The fact is that despite some recent losses, they’ve made some adjustments to starters, playing time, and rotation. It appears that New York head coach D’Antoni is finally getting all the right pieces in place and has figured out the best way to match guys up. At the time of this writing, the Knicks are coming off of the huge win AT New Orleans and a win over the Hornets in the Big Easy doesn’t happen by accident. The Knicks have a solid frontcourt that is playing aggressively and has found out how well they can perform as a team when they play defense and rebound! That is the key to New York because certainly the offense is there for the Knicks! New York has always had a high powered attack that has now been enhanced with D’Antoni running the show. However, the real key of enhancement for this Knicks team is finally playing a little team defense and crashing the boards hard. Look for another big effort on Saturday as they are catching the Sixers at the perfect time to get a big home win. New York will be off of a home and home set with Washington and that certainly shouldn’t be overly taxing for the Knicks. Philadelphia will be coming off of a game versus San Antonio the night before and facing the Spurs is unlikely to leave the 76’ers with much “fuel left in the tank” for this Atlantic Division battle. Play ON New York in the NBA on Saturday and good luck from Nick "The BookieKiller" Parsons!
Matt Fargo
Wake Forest at Clemson
Play: Clemson
Heading into the season, no one expected the Demon Deacons and Tigers to be where they are at this point of the season. There were only three undefeated teams remaining in Division I and two of them are right here. Wake Forest and Clemson were picked to finish in the top half of the ACC but neither was expected to open the season undefeated in the first half of the season. Obviously the ACC is a totally different beast but this is still a great matchup this early in the conference slate. Clemson will have had a week to prepare for this game and it will be fully focused at the task at hand. Wake Forest easily got by Boston College in Chestnut Hill on Wednesday to remain undefeated for this matchup. Interestingly, that game features the two teams that defeated North Carolina. There is no motivation needed for either side but respect is totally different. The Demon Deacons have jumped all the way to 2nd in the AP Poll while Clemson is sitting 10th. The Tigers are out for respect here. The Demon Deacons have edges across the board in a lot of categories here but this is due to playing a much weaker schedule even with a game against the Tar Heels in the mix. Wake Forest has played the 236th ranked schedule in the country while Clemson has gone against a slate ranked a much more respectable 158th. The difference isn’t huge but it is enough to skew the numbers somewhat. This will only be Wake Forest’s fourth true road game of the season. Both teams have been very efficient on offense and the slight edge goes to the Tigers. Clemson has an efficiency rating of 114.8 which is 3rd in the ACC and 21st in the country. Clemson also has an edge in the ever important assist/turnover ratio. The Tigers ratio of 1.11 is good for 66th in the nation and they are one of only 128 teams that have a ratio above the breakeven points. Wake Forest is not one of those teams as its ratio is 0.93 which is right around the middle of the pack in the nation. Wake Forest normally has an edge down low but Clemson has the matchup to counter as forwards Trevor Booker and K.C. Rivers are averaging a combined 30.1 ppg and 15.6 rpg. Clemson is obviously undefeated at home and LittleJohn Coliseum is turning into a nightmare for opponents. The Tigers are riding a 16-game home winning streak and over their last 30 home games, they are 28-2 with losses to Charlotte and North Carolina by just two points in overtime. The Tigers keep it rolling here. Wake Forest has turned into a very public team and it is already showing here with well over 80 percent of the bets coming its way as of Friday night. The Demon Deacons are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage better than .800. Clemson meanwhile is a stellar 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games against good teams that shoot better than 45 percent from the floor. We will only see one undefeated team left standing after this game and that will be the home squad on Saturday. 3* Clemson Tigers
Totals 4 U
South Carolina @ Tennessee
South Carolina (12-3, 1-1 SEC) The Gamecocks’ 3-game win streak came to an end Wednesday night with a 68-85 loss at Louisiana State, opening extremely sluggishly with 36% first half shooting that led to a 22-40 deficit at the break. 8 of 22 from the charity stripe doesn’t help much either and this has been a problem all season long (65.2% as a team) with split-time starting sophomore forwards 6’8” 215 Austin Steed (5.1p, 3.9r) and 6’7” 230 Mike Holmes (11.5p, 8.1r) the biggest offenders, combining to convert just 58 of 109 attempts. Holmes especially is a fine ball player with his quickness (18 steals, 21 blocks) earning 12 starts but sat the tip in favor of Steed last trip out. First year Coach Darin Hood brings the up-tempo offense that he thrived with the last 5 seasons at Western Kentucky (111-48) and has an electrifying player to run the show in 5’9” 175 junior G Devan Downey (19.6p, 2.7r, 4.2a). Downey not only pushes an offense that averages 80.1 points per game on 47.4% shooting but is one of the best small defenders in the country with 44 steals this season and holds the SEC single-season mark with 104 set last season. As a crew South Carolina forces 20 turnovers (versus 14.4) including 10.3 steals per game. The loss of senior guard Branden Conrad to a fractured foot on December 18th has been filled well by the return of 6’2” 193 junior G Brandis Raley-Ross (7.1p, 3.7r, 2.0a) from a sprained knee that cost him the early season while explosive 6’0” 203 senior G Zam Fredrick (16.2p, 3.1r, 2.0a) rounds out the 3-guard lineup. With the tempo that Coach Hood likes to run, size isn’t essential but with this roster he really doesn’t have the choice. At 6’8” Steed is the tallest player on the team to get regular minutes while the game of starter 6’7” 200 junior F Dominique Archie (11.1p, 7.0r) is really more about quickness with 29 steals and the strength of backup 6’7” 210 junior F Evaldas “Evka” Baniulis (7.9p, 3.1r) is his 3-point shooting at 27 of 48 for the season. Other than lack of size, the Gamecock schedule has us concerned for their fortunes in conference. The only real quality win racked so far is an 85-84 edge South Carolina posted over the then-ranked 19th Baylor Bears on January 2nd.
Tennessee (10-5, 1-1 SEC) Losing 3 of their last 4, including a punishing 72-90 home loss to Kentucky in which Jodie Meeks dropped 10 3-pointers on the way to a Wildcat record 54 points, some of the shine has come off the preseason predictions of the Volunteers winning the SEC. The loss of Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith from the 2007-2008 crew that finished 31-5 presents big shoes to fill but it’s scheduling that presents the biggest challenge for Coach Bruce Pearl’s (87-29 in 4th season at Knoxville). Non-conference losses to good teams like Kansas and Gonzaga (twice) have been balanced by quality wins over Sienna, Georgetown, and Marquette. Pearl has tinkered plenty with his lineup in the early going with 9 different players logging starts but right now the core looks to be6’2” 185 junior G Bobby Maze (10.0p, 3.1r, 3.8a), 6’9” 242 junior C Wayne Chism (12.8p, 9.1r), and 6’7” 215 junior F Tyler Smith (17.8p, 6.1r, 3.8a) who has battled like a champ through injuries this season. Tennessee loves to play high tempo (83.5 points per game at 45.0% from the field) so the other 2 slots are filled by guards – most recently by 6’7” 205 junior JP Prince (9.8p, 3.8r, 2.1a) and 6’7” 185 freshman Scotty Hopson (8.3p, 2.3r) but guard/forwards 6’6” 196 freshman Cameron Tatum (10.1p, 2.7r) and 6’8” 208 freshman Renaldo Woolridge (5.1p, 2.4r) also have 10 starts between them. With no less than 4 players that regularly play guard measuring in at least 6’6” plus a big kid like 6’10” 267 sophomore C Brian Williams (5.7p, 6.3r) coming off the bench to support the front court it’s pretty clear that the Volunteers will play with size and match up advantages against nearly any opponent and have dominated the boards with a superb 42.3-34.8 edge per game. What they don’t have is much of a threat from deep. As a team Tennessee strokes the 3-ball at just 30.4% with Hopson the best of the bunch at 18 of 44 through 15 games. So will the Vols win the SEC as predicted? Only if they play defense better. Coach Pearl’s heavy rotation is intended to maintain the brisk tempo he likes while still being able to get stops but with 76.1 points per game allowed at 44.7% shooting from the field and 36.9% from behind the arc these kids have struggled defensively at times and have dominated (10-0 when allowing under 80 points) when they have been on.
SELECTION: The Volunteers were 50-2 the last 4 seasons at Thomas-Boling Arena before dropping their last 2 home games, have major size advantages at every position, and have played much tougher competition this season than have the Gamecocks. A pretty good line could have been had here if the Tigers hadn’t exposed South Carolina Wednesday but we’ll still take Tennessee come Saturday.
LT Profits
Maryland +3.5
The Florida State Seminoles are on a nice little run right now, but we will sell high with them here at what we feel is an inflated line and grab the points with the Maryland Terrapins.
Florida State is 7-2 in their last nine games, and the two losses have been by only seven points to top-ranked Pittsburgh and by eight points to a Duke team that is ranked number one in the Pomeroy Ratings.
The Seminoles are also coming off of a nice outright road win at North Carolina State as four-point underdogs on Tuesday. Now the Noles are a nice team, but we do feel that they have been playing over their heads a bit lately and that a return to their proper level is inevitable.
In fact, a peak at the Pomeroy Ratings reveals that Maryland is actually ranked nine spots higher (50) than Florida State is right now (59) and Pomeroy sets a fair line on this game at Florida State -2. The Terps are 8-2 in their last 10 games in their own right, and they easily covered the number in their last loss, a narrow 62-60 road defeat vs. the Miami Hurricanes on Wednesday.
We will gladly take the higher ranked Pomeroy team from Maryland with the extra line value in this situation.
Pick: Maryland +3.5