Kendall Holiday
Sport: College Football
Game: UCLA Bruins @ BYU Cougars - Saturday December 22, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 4 units (Free Play) ATS: BYU Cougars -6 (-110)
BYU comes into this one having won perhaps the most underrated conference in the land in the Mountain West this season. The time off definitely benefitted BYU QB Max Hall, who had a lame shoulder the last couple of weeks in the regualr season. BYU feels on par with anyone they play, and they feel like they lost one they should have won, to UCLA earlier this season. They were leading in that game only to fall apart late. UCLA, on the other hand, is a team in turmoil, after the firing of well liked HC Karl Dorrell. DeWayne Walker is coaching them in this bowl game, and he'll have the kids attention, but we seriously question how well the Bruins will handle adversity in this game, which they'll certainly face. BYU is a very good football team, and will have the upper hand in this game. They get the big win that will propel towards a top 20 preseason ranking in 2008. Throw in the fact that this game is played in Las Vegas and one of these teams parties quite a bit and the other does not? Four units on BYU.
Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers - Saturday December 22, 2007 8:15 pm
Pick: 2 units (Normal) ATS: Dallas Cowboys -10.5 (-108)
As wil be clear from our write up below, we like the Dallas Cowboys in this game, but this is not one of our favorite NFL games this weekend, which features six other stronger NFL picks by Nite Owl, including three huge five unit plays (two Sunday and one Monday night). Nite Owl has established its perch at the top of Top Ten's NFL leaderboard (see above) with a hot December, winning 65% of our last 20 NFL picks, by selecting only those games where one side has a very high probability of "covering," like Buffalo demolishing Miami in our AFC Game of the Year two weeks ago, and Tampa Bay doing likewise to Atlanta as our featured free newsletter pick last Sunday. Our three five unit NFL picks this weekend can be purchased on an individual basis, for $35 each, or (a better deal) together and along with our other NFL picks as part of any of our reasonably priced NFL packages, NFL/college FB bowl combo packs, or all sports combo packs. We hope to have you on board with us this weekend and at least for the rest of the college and pro football seasons, but whatever you decide to do, enjoy the games, good luck, and bet smart. And now, the write up for our pick on Dallas over Carolina.When one looks at what each of these two teams has accomplished this year, and the numbers posted by each of them in getting to where they are today (Dallas tied for first in NFC at 12-2 and Carolina in line for a lottery pick at a disappointing 6-8), its obvious who is the better team and who should win this game as well as cover the point spread. But as Cowboys have taught us again this year, just when it seems they are cruising towards the Super Bowl in a flood of TR (Tony Romo) to TO (we all know who he is) bombs, the Boys sleep walk through 3 quarters of a game and then wake up just in time to put together a last minute desperation drive which gets them the win but sends their backers home with thinner wallets. That tired act has worked twice for them this year, against Buffalo and Detroit, and they thought they could pull it off again last week, at home against Philly, but they fell flat on their faces while Tony Romo had the worst game of his NFL career, going 13-36 with 3 INTs and no TDs and getting sacked 3 times, looking so bad that he couldnt have even completed a pass at one of the Dallas Cowgirl cheerleaders if he tried. The official team explanation for his lousy performance was that he had injured the thumb on his passing hand, and that (along with Carolinas shocking upset of Seattle last Sunday) is what has kept the line on this game pretty steady at 10.5 all week, despite the apparent mismatch. The word is that the thumb and hand have been rested for most of the week and are in good enough condition for Romo to start, which is good news for Cowboy fans given that their back-up is Brad Johnson, who is almost as much of an NFL antique as Carolina back-up QB Vinny Testaverde (wouldnt that be something if those two ended up playing against each other, and the Geritol commercials during play stoppages were the most exciting part of the game?). But back to the task at hand, trying to decide if the real Cowboys will be the team that shows up in Charlotte Saturday night, and we say they will, because this time, unlike in their non-covering last minute road wins as heavy favorites this year, there is a sense of urgency for them. That is because after last Sundays surprise loss to Philly, they now have Green Bay breathing down their necks for the best record in the NFC and HFA (home field advantage) throughout the NFC playoffs, which most (us included) believe will determine which NFC team goes to the Super Bowl. With the Boys having to play their regular season finale next week in Washington against a Redskins team that gave them all they could handle earlier in the season in Dallas and always gets up during Dallas week, even more so if they are playing for a playoff spot, which they just might be, the Boys know they must win this game against Carolina.. If one looks at Cowboys other road games this year, its pretty clear that in games they think are important, like their two road division games at NY and Philly, both won convincingly by Dallas, and their 34-10 beat down of the Bears in Chicago in week 3 as 3 point road dogs, when the sports world still looked at da Bears as defending Super Bowl champs (not chumps), Cowboys are a very good team when they play to their potential, which they do when they have a sense of urgency like they do this week. Since Dallas is clearly the better team here and the outcome of this game will be determined more by emotion than by talent, we have devoted most of this write-up to Cowboys likely emotional state for this game and explaining why they are not likely to show up unfocused and unmotivated like earlier in the season at Detroit, at Buffalo and last week vs Philly. But no game write-up would be complete without at least some discussion of the opponent as well as some of the teams comparative numbers. Carolina pulled off a real shocker last week, not only because Seattle had been playing so well, but because Carolina had been playing so poorly, especially at home, where they previously had beaten only the lowly 49ers, had been pounded by the other two playoff teams they had faced at home (losing by 18 to Indy and by 13 to Tampa), and had even lost convincingly to playoff bubble teams Houston and New Orleans. But one of the two main factors working in Carolinas favor last Sunday (the other being Seattles malaise and surprising ineptitude on offense), DE Julius Peppers, will not play against Dallas, having badly sprained a knee in that game, but not until after he had made life miserable for the Seattle backfield and had forced 3 fumbles (one of which was recovered by Carolina). Speaking of making life miserable for opposing backfields, Dallas has 38 QB sacks this year, twice as many as Carolinas gentlemanly 19 sacks, and we expect Carolina QB Mike Moore to have a game more similar to his previous performances in limited action (a 51 QB rating with 0 TDs and 3 INTs before last Sundays improved numbers of 19-27 for 208 yards and no INTs, but still no TDs). Before summing up, just a quick recap of Cowboys 35-14 win over Panthers last year in Charlotte with #1 Panther QB Jake Delhomme playing, and how they did it. In a nutshell, they outgained Panthers 2/1 (400 yards to 200), had only 1 TO to 3 for Carolina, and turned a close game into a rout by outscoring a worn down Panther team 25-0 in the fourth quarter (in other words, a focused, businesslike effort by Dallas, which is what we expect from them Saturday night). We like Dallas for two units at the prevailing price of 10.5, and would take them for 3 units at - 10 but only one unit at - 11 (and would pass if line moves past 11, which we doubt it will). We dont like the total on this game, as we expect Dallas to dominate on both sides of the ball (scoring well and holding down the Panther offense), but if you have access to individual team totals, we recommend, as a way to get added value from this game, taking over for the number of points to be scored by Cowboys, and under for the number of points to be scored by Carolina. While no individual team totals have yet been posted for this game and wont be until Saturday morning at the earliest, we estimate the totals line for Dallas to be about 26 or 26.5, and for Carolina to be about 14.5 or 15. We would recommend Dallas over for 2-3 units at anything under 27, and Carolina under, also for 2-3 units at a line of 14 or higher, with the units depending on how favorable a line you get for each wager
Drew Gordon
Saturday Plays:
1. 300,000* Cowboys
2. 50,000* UCLA
3. 50,000* Valparaiso
1. Cowboys- Now that Jessica-gate is over, the Cowboys can get back to the business of dominating the NFC, and that includes a short-handed and extremely flawed Carolina team in this Saturday nighter.
Thanks to the Cowboys loss against the Eagles, and a solid win by the Panthers over Seattle last week at home, we're getting a bargain price on what has all the makings of a blowout. Make no mistake, Dallas will win this game BIG and here's why:
First, Romo and company will be looking to make up for a terrible showing against the Eagles. Owens can blame Romo's girlfriend, but the truth of the matter was it as a bad game for the entire Dallas offense, and I expect they'll be extremely focused in tonight's bounce back effort. The fact star DE Julius Peppers is listed as doubtful only makes Romo's job that much easier.
Second, one unit that didn't struggle last week was the Dallas defense, which is allowing just 19 ppg on 301 total yards (90 rushing) on the road this season. They've been excellent against the run all season, so don't expect much from Foster or Williams. And if they decide to "air it out" with Matt Moore, he'll get well acquainted with a Dallas defense that loves to pressure the QB with Ellis and Ware among others!
Finally, let's talk motivation, as a win here gives the Cowboys home-field advantage in the NFC. While Dallas does own the tie-breaker with Green Bay, the fact the Packers have the Bears and Lions left means Dallas cannot afford to screw around with Carolina tonight. We'll chalk up last week as an abberation... Look for the Cowboys to get back on track with a lopsided win and cover against Carolina in this one!
Take the Cowboys BIG over the Panthers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. UCLA- While BYU statistically dominated their match up earlier this season, the Bruins won handily 27-17... This time around, I expect the winner to come by a field goal, as underestimating UCLA in this spot would be big mistake.
More than anything, what keeps UCLA in this game is their defense, which has been excellent over their last 3 games, allowing 16 ppg on 312 total yards (only 170 yards passing/game). While critics will argue that BYU's defensive numbers are just as good over the same span, clearly they didn't look at the level of competition. Bruins covered 3 straight against Arizona State, Oregon, and Southern Cal thanks to their defense... So don't tell me the Cougars covers against Wyoming, Utah, and San Diego State are the same thing!
Also consider the time off has allowed QB Ben Olson to get his head on straight. He's been dealing with injuries all season, and understandbly has looked like a shell of his former self. With loads of rest and practice time, look for the talented signal caller to finally deliver against a beatable Cougars defense.
Finally, make no mistake, the Bruins are playing for defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker's job as head coach. After dismissing Karl Dorrell, the players want nothing more than the continuity Walker brings to the job. He's extremely popular inside the program, but will have to get a win here to impress the suits who will decide his fate... I say the Bruins respond accordingly!
Take UCLA plus the points over Brigham Young in tonight's Las Vegas Bowl.
3. Valparaiso- As much history as there is behind the Badgers at the Kohl Center, try and remember that this is not the Tucker and Taylor led Wisky team you're used to seeing. In fact, this year's version of Wisconsin looks incredibly vunerable in this spot as heavy favorite against a solid Valpo team.
Speaking of the Crusaders, they can attribute a lot of their success to the return of their top-6 players, as this veteran team knows how to win on the road (wins at Detroit, at Wright State). I'm not saying they win outright, far from it, but making them double-digit dogs in this spot is outrageous considering their recent play, averaging 77 ppg on an impressive 51% shooting (44% from 3-point) over their last 5 games!
Wisky meanwhile, has looked less than impressive over the same span, going 2-3 ATS, with a blowout loss at Duke, and an outright loss at home to Marquette. Their offense just hasn't been executing, averaging 67 ppg over their last 5, and while the Crusaders defense isn't as good as the Badgers, they're still good enough to give Wisconsin trouble the way they're playing right now.
Finally, underestimate Valpo at your own risk tonight, as they're a solid 4-1 ATS away this season. Laying this many points with a good, but not great Wisconsin team is just plain ridiculous. The Badgers will win this game, but you better believe the Crusaders will make them work for it, keeping this one easily within the number!
Take Valparaiso plus the points over Wisconsin in this college hoops match up.
Today's Games...
1. 50,000* New Mexico
2. 50,000* Ohio State
1. New Mexico- As good as the Wolfpack has looked behind their stud freshman QB Kaepernick, the Lobos defense has looked better. Say what you will about the dual-threat Nevada signal caller, but he's still a freshman, and freshman don't do well against complicated, blitz heavy defenses like the Lobos. New Mexico's defense is allowing 19 ppg on just 314 total yards (174 passing yards/contest) over their last 3 games.
All I've heard all week is how Rocky Long is 0-4 SUATS in Bowl games, and while that's true, let's not get carried away. Basing your decision on one stat is short-sighted, especially when you consider all the other factors in New Mexico's favor, including the fact their offense will be facing a very beatable Wolfpack defense, allowing 32 ppg on 400+ total yards! Sure, we'll give the edge to Kaepernick, but Lobos QB Porterie is no slouch, tossing for 2636 yards and 13 TD to 8 INT ratio. Not to mention a huge offensive line punching holes for first-team Mountain West RB Ferguson.
Finally, despite their troubles covering at home, there's no question the Lobos will benefit from playing in the friendly confines of home. Offensively, they average over 11 more points per game than their season average there (35 to 24) and are much more effective running the ball, which is the key to keeping Nevada's pistol offense off the field. In the end, coach Long gets his first Bowl win and the Lobos grab the cash!
Take New Mexico over Nevada in this afternoon's New Mexico Bowl.
2. Ohio State- How much things change from one year to the next, as we're no longer talking about players like Horford and Oden, but instead about freshman like Calathes and Koufos. Make no mistake, coach Matta and his Buckeye's have an axe to grind with this Gators team, and this afternoon presents the perfect oppurtunity at home for some much needed payback.
Both teams are young and experiencing growing pains, but I saw some signs of growth from Ohio State in their 80-63 thrashing of Cleveland State. First of all, they went on the road and dominated a solid Vikings team, limiting them to 36% shooting. Second, we saw what veterans are left on this Buckeye's roster really contribute, in Butler and Hunter. And third, the young bucks on this team, Lighty and Koufos, are playing rock-solid basketball for being underclassmen.
The same cannot be said of Florida simply because coach Donovan has loaded their schedule with cupcakes (surely to protect their young players), including 8 non-lined contests thus far! Even against real competition they showed us little positive, as a 65-51 home loss to Florida State clearly demonstrated. In other words, once you get over the name on the front of their jersey's, this Florida team is a flawed bunch.
Bottom line, with revenge on the brain, look for this talented Ohio State squad to build off their win at Cleveland State with another strong win and cover this afternoon at home. Florida is a pretender this season with all the cupcakes they've played, and today they get fully exposed by a motivated Buckeye's squad.
Take Ohio State comfortably over Florida in this college hoops match up.
BURNS
BUCKS 3-Game Executive Report
Game: Charlotte Bobcats vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm laying the points with MILWAUKEE. The situation favors the revenge-minded home team here. While the Bucks have had the past couple of nights off, the Bobcats are off a home win vs. the Knicks last night. That's worth mentioning for a couple of reasons. For starters, the Bucks are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Additionally, the Bobcats are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing the second of back to back games. Both teams are much better on their home floor. While the Bobcats are now 9-6 at home, they're an awful 1-8 on the road. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an awful 2-12 on the road but a terrific 8-3 at home. Look for homecourt to prove the difference once again as the rested Bucks avenge an early November loss at Charlotte.
HEAT 3 Game Executive Report
Game: Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. I won with Utah yesterday. However, that doesn't mean that everything is suddenly right for the Jazz. They're still banged-up and they're still 3-8 SU/ATS their last 11 games. They're also typically a terrible team when playing the second of back to back games. In fact, the Jazz are just 3-10 the last 13 times that they played in that situation. Of course, the Heat have also been struggling. However, they've been showing signs of coming around and star Dwayne Wade has looked better and better with every game. After Thursday's game, he finally said: "I'm probably all the way back." The Heat, who had yesterday off, have owned the Jazz here in recent years, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four meetings here. Look for them to continue that homecourt domination this evening, avenging a loss at Utah three weeks ago.
NETS 3 Game Executive Report
Game: Golden State Warriors vs. New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. While they've beaten a couple of weak teams (Minnesota and Memphis) on the road lately, the Warriors are still just 2-3 SU/ATS their last five away from home. They've struggled away from home for years and that's particularly been the case here in New Jersey. In fact, they're 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS their last nine trips here. The Nets come off a momentum-building OT win at Miami. As Vince Carter said: "We are a better team than our record is showing." I fully believe this to be true. Look for the Nets to carry positive momentum forward from their overtime victory and continue their homecourt domination in this series.
UNDER Hornets/TWolves Total Annihilator
Game: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the T-Wolves and Hornets to finish UNDER the total. Both teams saw their most recent game finish above the total. The Hornets and Sonics snuck above the number a few nights ago while the T-Wolves were involved in a high-scoring game vs. the Pacers last night. That hasn't been "normal" though. Indeed, the T-Wolves have still seen the UNDER go 5-2-1 their past eight games while the Hornets have still seen the UNDER go 5-1 their last six and 14-6 their last 20. Its also worth mentioning that the Hornets have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 this season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. Additionally, the T-Wolves have seen the UNDER go 5-1 this season when playing the second of back to back games. The fact that the T-Wolves upset the Hornets earlier is also noteworthy as the Hornets have seen the UNDER go 6-2 the last eight times they faced a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. Look for another strong defensive effort tonight and for the UNDER to improve to 7-0 for the season when the T-Wolves have played on a Saturday.
Lovell
10* Nevada +3 (buy the hook )
5* over 42.5 dall - carol.
Net Prophet
CFB:
Nevada +3 over New Mexico
NFL:
PASS
NBA:
Washington/Indiana UNDER 207'
Golden State/New Jersey OVER 210'
New Jersey +2 over Golden State
Charlotte/Milwaukee OVER 191
NHL:
Buffalo +110 over Philadelphia
CBB:
PASS
Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day
the last 2 months (Oct 15-10).(.Nov 17-10)
won last night
11~9.december
5~5 totals
6~4 sides
UCLA held eight of its opponents to 24 points or less this season. BYU held eight of its last nine opponents to 24 or less. UCLA is 13-4 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons: it got the cover in its season-ending loss to USC. BYU is 29-14 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 and 10-2 UNDER in games played on a neutral field since 1992.
Play on: Under
Brian Mac
BRIAN MAC
OVER XAVIER
ROB CROWNE
S MISS
NEVADA CLUB
OHIO STATE
JACK FROST
AVALANCHE PLAYS
NEW MEXICO--COWBOYS--CBB--NIAGRA
HOOPER
SOUTH CAROLINA
SILVER FOX
CAL SANTA--FB--S MISS
FORMULA ONE
SOUTH CAROLINA--OVER XAVIER
ICE CRUSHER
BRUINS