THE SPORTS REPOTER
ALAMO BOWL
SUPER BEST BET
PENN STATE over TEXAS A&M by 27
"Our intention is to bring the same great Aggie spirit to San Antonio that we had in our
last game against Texas," says Texas A&M’s definitely interim coach Gary Darnell, the
likely ex-defensive coordinator after this game. Intention does not equal or guarantee
intensity. Incoming A&M head coach Mike Sherman has yet to make an appearance,
because he is still coordinating the Houston Texans’ offense. Former head coach Dennis
Franchione is not ticketed for another head coaching job at the moment, so every A&M
assistant has the same key distraction as they prepare the Aggies for this game: “Where
am I working next year?” It is the same dilemma faced by the Notre Dame staff four
years ago prior to an Insight.com Bowl. Tyrone Willingham had been booted and incoming
head coach Charlie Weis first had to fulfill his NFL commitment as a New England
assistant. The Irish trailed 21-7 at halftime for interim head coach Kent (Who?) Baer, and
eventually lost 38-21 in a game that really wasn’t as close as the score might have indicated.
Getting all the way back up after the high of whupping a young Texas team at Kyle
Field on November 23 will be difficult for A&M to replicate under the current circumstances.
It will be also be a surprise if Penn State’s defense allows itself to get beat by
a “smash-mouth” offense where the focus is on the running backs, tight ends and the
quarterback’s wheels. Penn State’s corners do not figure to need extra help against a
wide receiver group that accounted for only 4 TDs and whose most “dangerous” wideout
Kerry Franks caught only 8 passes in his last 5 games. It will also be a surprise if
Penn State’s receivers don’t do as well or better than the super-stiffs on the Miami-FL
offense who yanked the pants off A&M’s defense earlier in the year. PENN STATE, 41-14.
LIBERTY BOWL
BEST BET
MISSISSIPPI STATE over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 9
The nation’s leading rusher Kevin Smith gained 2,448 yards on the ground this season
and his team averaged 426 yards of offense per game – in a C-USA where eight bad
defenses yielded between 438 and 542 yards per game! Central Florida is coming off the
high of a C-USA Championship, and, although the opposing Bulldogs’ 7-5 SU record
doesn’t indicate it, George O’Leary’s Knights are probably moving up in class as far as
the caliber of opposing defense. On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s offense
gained only 305 yards per game, last in the 12-team SEC. But eight SEC defenses yielded
360 or fewer yards per game despite playing against serious offensive personnel ticketed
for collegiate trophies and big-paying NFL careers. Operating within class matchups
similar to today’s, Mississippi State running back Anthony Dixon has found plenty of
room for Sylvester Croom, recording a pair of triple-digit rushing yardage games and a
total of five second-half touchdowns vs. the two C-USA defenses that Mississippi State
played and beat handily this season. Meanwhile, Smith is no bigger, faster or more punishingthan any running back that Mississippi State faced in the SEC, or in their outingat West Virginia for that matter. UCF quarterback Kyle Israel had a 9-for-26 passing afternoonvs. Texas and might be ready for another. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 29-20.
WINNING POINTS ( 5-6)
ALAMO BOWL
PENN STATE over TEXAS A&M by 9
Although he will not be directly involved in coaching the team for this game(defensive coordinator Gary Darnell is in the interim role), you can mike sure thatnew Texas A&M hire Mike Sherman will be watching this one closely. What he willsee is that the Aggies need a major influx of speed if they are going to have a chanceto move up to a higher level. It was most apparent in road wipeouts at Oklahoma,Missouri, Texas Tech and even Miami F., games that they lost by a combined 87points, and it is also going to be a factor here. With ample time to prepare we canexpect the usual fundamental soundness from a Penn State defense against anoption attack, which takes the running of QB Stephen McGee and the plowing ofRB Jorvorski Lane out of play. That forces the Aggies to have to throw in order tobe successful, and while McGee had one of the better games of his career againstTexas in the finale, that is hardly an indication of what is to come. And in thosefour road games that we referenced above, note that the A&M defense allowed1,336 passing yards at an ugly 77.3 percent completions, not getting a single interception.The Nittany Lions have thespeed at WR to exploit those issues, and nowthat the pressure is off we would not be surprised if the disappointing career of QBAnthony Morrelli ends on a positive note. The only Aggie bowl appearances of thelast five seasons were blowout losses by 31 and 35 points, which also creates a crisisof confidence as well. PENN STATE 31-22
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
WAKE FOREST over CONNECTICUT by 5
We keep checking the wires, waiting for the inevitable announcement that Jim
Grobe would be leaving Wake Forest to take over a more prominent program. It
has not happened yet, and indeed may not happen at all, which means a great ‘win’
for the Wake Forest program. Grobe has done such a solid job with the Deacons
that it is not just about tactics any more – the talent on hand was good enough to
win five games in double figures this season, and they closed with a lot of momentum
in whipping N. C. State and Vanderbilt. That carries over here, particularlywith a lot of local support. Connecticut may be on the verge of a similar climb inthe years to come, but not just yet. In November step-up road games againstbowlboundCincinnati and West Virginia the Huskies were humbled by a collective 93-24, and that does bring anywhere near the level of momentum that Grobe and hissquad carry through the practice weeks leading up to kickoff. The Huskies lackplaymakers on offense, not averaging 200 yards per game either running or passing,and with ample prep time can be shut down by an under-rated Wake Forestdefense. Meanwhile the +13 turnover differential that got them here also does notget in play vs. afundamentally sound opponent. WAKE FOREST 27-22
LIBERTY BOWL
MISSISSIPPI STATE over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 2All Kevin Smith did for CentralFlorida this season was rush for 2,448 yards and29 TD’s, statistically one of the best seasons ever for a college running back. Yet itwas not good enough to even get him in the top four in the Heisman voting, whichshows the level of respect for Conference USA. And you know what? We actuallyagree. We like Smith, and he has a chance to be playing on Sunday’s for many yearsahead, but the bottom line is that the defensive play in his conference this seasonwas the worst of any league that we have ever charted. There was only one roadgame all season against a class defense outside of the conference, a short bus ride totake on South Florida in a regional showdown, and not only were the GoldenKnights pummeled 64-12, Smith was held to 55 yards on 18 rushes. That is whatsets the tone for this one. Now Smith and the offense are up against a physicaldefensive front that has been up against his class of performer before, with theBulldogs holding Darren McFadden to 88 yards on 28 carries in a comparablematchup, and we are going to find that they are a one-trick pony. The passinggame? Not even average with Kyle Israel at the helm vs. this class of opponent. Thedefense? Yards and points were easy for opponents to come by. And with theBulldogs playing with a great deal of passion in their first bowl underSylvesterCroom, while also bringing a lot of fans to Memphis, this is not an upset at all.MISSISSIPPI STATE 29-27.
EROCKMONEY ( 7-4 SO FAR)
Meineke - Wake Forest (-3) v. Conneticut
The Huskies had a solid year, but Wake simply has more talent on the field of play in this one. Charlotte creates a home field advantage for Wake and I expect the Demon Deacons to play inspired ball for coach Grobe after he passed on the Arkansas position. Two great defenses will take the field but I give the edge to Wake.
Pick: Wake by 13
Status: Recommended Play (rank - 5th)
Liberty - UCF v. Miss St.
I would strongly recommend avioding this game. UCF seems to be the real talented team in Conf. USA but Miss St. had an excellent year in the powerfule SEC.
Pick: UCF by 1
Status: No Play
Alamo - Penn St. v. Texas A&M
Penn St. is deadly when they have extended time to prepare for an opponent, but Texas A&M has a huge home field advantage in this one.
Pick: Penn St. by 4
Status: No Play
DR BOB ( 6-5)
3 Star Selection
***Connecticut 27 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at Meineke Bowl - Charlotte) 10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 Connecticut was destroyed by West Virginia 21-66 in their regular season finale, but that shouldn’t take away from the great season that the Huskies had. U Conn was 9-3 for the season and their only losses by more than 1 point were to a very good Cincinnati team and to West Virginia. The other loss was by just 1 point to Virginia and the Huskies have wins against Louisville and South Florida to their credit. Wake Forest, meanwhile, didn’t beat a team all season that is rated higher than Connecticut in my ratings. The best team that the Demon Deacons beat was Florida State, which is about the same as the Huskies, and Wake’s only other victories against better than average teams came at home in overtime against Maryland (when Maryland was a below average team with Steffy at quarterback) and at Vanderbilt.
The strength of this Huskies team is a defense that gave up 19 points or less in 9 of their 11 games with only good offensive teams Cincinnati (27 points) and West Virginia scoring 20 points or more against them. Connecticut’s defensive weakness is stopping good running teams, but Wake Forest is not a good running team (4.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and Deacons are not likely to take advantage. Wake Forest isn’t a good passing team either, as Riley Skinner averaged 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’ll have a tough time throwing against a very good Connecticut pass defense that yielded just 5.0 yppp (to teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense) while picking off 22 passes. Wake Forest faced 4 better than average defensive teams this season (Boston College, Virginia, Clemson, and Vanderbilt) and the Demon Deacons averaged only 4.2 yppl in those 4 games while not topping 4.4 yppl in any of them. I don’t see Wake Forest having much success against Connecticut’s solid defense either.
Wake Forest also has a good defense, as the Demon Deacons allowed just 4.7 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. Connecticut is nothing special offensively, as the Huskies are average running the ball and slightly worse than average throwing it (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but quarterback Tyler Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions all season, which is why the Huskies are better than average in compensated scoring (27.8 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 25.5 points to an average team). My math model projects 4.7 yppl for both teams in this game, but Wake Forest hasn’t gained more than 4.4 yppl against a better than average defense this season so I think the Huskies will do a better job of moving the football even though my math model projects the yardage as even. Connecticut has an edge in projected turnovers but Wake Forest has a special teams edge. Overall, my math model favors Wake Forest by ½ a point, so the line value favors U Conn and I think the Huskies will win straight up.
Connecticut applies to a 37-8-1 ATS Bowl situation while Wake Forest applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation. Try not to overreact to Connecticut’s last game (that 21-66 loss to West Virginia), as teams that lost their previous game by more than 38 points are actually 11-2 ATS in bowl games and teams that gave up 65 points or more in their final regular season game are 4-1 ATS in bowls. The fact that Connecticut gave up 66 points in one game and still allowed an average of just 18.6 points for the season tells you how good the Huskies’ defense was for most of the season.
I’ll take Connecticut in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.12 odds or less) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-1.13 odds or higher) to +1 point.
Penn State (-5½) vs Texas A&M: I lean slightly with Penn State.
VEGAS HOTSHEET ( 7-8 SO FAR)
Saturday, December 29th
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL - 1:00pm ET ESPN
413 Connecticut 29
414 Wake Forest 17
UCONN +3
LIBERTY BOWL - 4:30pm ET ESPN
415 C Florida 34
416 Mississippi St 17
UCF -3
ALAMO BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
417 Penn St 34
418 Texas A&M 13
PENN ST -5½
ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS ( 6-6 SO FAR )
Meinke Car Care Bowl 5 Star Connecticut over WAKE FOREST
Liberty Bowl 5 Star Central Florida over Mississippi State
Alamo Bowl 2 Star TEXAS A&M over Penn State
Mighty ! Quinn
12-29 last 41
Wake -3
Cen Fla -3
Penn St - 5 1/2
WIL BILL ( 2-3)
Penn State -5 1/2 (1 unit) A&M with new HC, Penn State seniors looking to send Joe out a winner
AAA
NCAAF: Central Florida Golden Knights at Mississippi State Bulldogs - Mississippi State +3 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Note: A lot of what I have to say about this game is already in the Total Play writeup so I will be very brief. This line is outrageous and based on the overall records of these two schools. The schedule of Mississippi State has been as least twice as difficult playing in the SEC as they have. Actually, the only two schools that the Knights have played that I would consider, quality teams was Texas and South Florida. They did perform well verses the Longhorns and lost a close game. They got pounded by the Bulls. Both of those schools are in the latter half of the top 25. That is it. That is who they have played. Miss State played LSU, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, That is 8 Teams that are going Bowling and a who's who of the top 25. You just cannot compare these teams based on record alone and I can promise you, that if the Knights had played the schedule of the Bulldogs this year, they would be getting ready for the Holidays in a totally different way. This game with this very good Miss State D is not going to be a Holiday. They have THE BEST secondary in the SEC. They have a huge defensive line and they have better quality athletes. They are also playing their best ball of the season right now and are truly excited to be in this bowl. I am pretty close to this situation and I could on and on at why the Bulldogs will win this one outright. But I will just stop and say that I will be betting this one moneyline as well. This game has been elevated to 3 Unit status.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
Record since october 6th NCAA FOOTBALL 21-7 75% (4-0 bowls)
OVERALL RECORD (in all sports) 146-98 (60%) since oct 6th
Early Release Bowl play 12/29
CONNETICUT+3
Strike Point Football
2-Unit Play. #414 Take Wake Forest -2.5 over Connecticut
The Deacons took care of Uconn in an early season tilt to begin 2006, and here they will come out on top as well. I'll take the team speed on Wake's defense, as well as their special teams to be the superior unit, and overall they are stronger in my mind. The Huskies found a way in a lot of regular season games, but without that momentum from their run and nearly a month off, the ACC-rep will come out on top.
2-Unit Play. #416 Take Mississippi State +3 over Central Florida
While all the hype coming is on UCF's Kevin Smith, the Bulldogs have a pretty tough defense. And as good as Smith has been in C-USA play, going up against SEC speed and athleticism is going to be somewhat different. He may crack 100, but I don't think Sly Croom and Mississippi State defense will allow the rest of the Knights' offense to be that successful. Anthony Dixon is a very good tailback in his own right, and he and the Bulldogs as a whole will put together a stronger peformance and capture Croom's first bowl game victory
POINTWISE PHONE PLAYS
3* Wake Forest
Teddy Covers
Over Connecticut
Penn St
Patriots -13.5
WINNING POINTS HOOPS (3-0 YESTERDAY )
BEST BET
Dallas over Atlanta by 21
The Hawks caught the slow-starting Mavericks at home in November and defeated
them, 101-94. Now it’s payback time for Dallas, which was without suspended Josh
Howard for that matchup. The Mavericks were starting to click as the month comes
to a close. Dirk Nowitzki’s numbers are down, but lately he’s shown signs of stepping
up. Atlanta already is on its fourth point guard because of injuries. The Hawks don’t
have the 3-point shooters to match Dallas’ perimeter game. DALLAS 110-89
BEST BET
Houston over Toronto by 17
It is Texas Two-Step time for the Raptors following last night’s game at San Antonio.
The Rockets were missing point guard Rafer Alston when the Raptors bet them, 93-
80, at home three weeks ago. The Rockets’ offense suffered because of it. The revengemindedRockets should shoot better than 40 percent from the field and make morethan 70 percent from the foul line, which were their numbers from the first meeting.Jose Calderon has been logging a lot of extra minutes for Toronto with starting pointguard T.J. Ford (check status) being out. He could hit a wall in this second of consecutivegames. HOUSTON 109-92
COLLEGE HOOPS;
BEST BET
Wyoming* over Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 24
WMU has problems putting the ball in the hoop and the head coach has booted two
key leading scorers. They were able to cover up for the first game without Torre
Johnson recently when they were awarded 42 free throws on their home floor as an
early Christmas present in a non-conference game vs. Central Michigan. At 7,100 feet,the extra minutes played by normal bench players will cause them to need about 62free throws to keep pace and that ain’t gonna happen. WYOMING, 79-55.
Your Winning Picks College Football
**BEST BET***
Wake Forest (-3) VS. UConn: Wake Forest has always been a better team getting points than in giving them to an opponent. Thus the Huskies are in a much better position here as they apply to a scenario where a team is 11-2 ATS when giving up 38 points or more in their previous contest. This line is way off the mark as the odds makers are giving way too much credence to UConn’s 21-66 loss to West Virginia. The fact of the matter is that the Huskies are a very good team with a great defense that will capitalize against a Wake Forest team that’s historically is poor under Coach Jim Grobe when giving points. Go with UCONN to win outright. THE PICK: UCONN (+3)
Penn State (-5.5) VS. Texas A & M: The Nittany Lions are the much better team and the Aggies are going though a change in the coaching ranks which is always a major distraction around Bowl season. Look for Joe Pa to get a great effort from his squad as they certainly have had less to deal with in focusing on this game. THE PICK: Penn State (-5.5)