Alex Smart
Arkansas Little Rock -4.0 / 2 units
Arkansas LR (9-2) is off having a 7 game winning streak broken last time out against Creighton , and will be primed to get back in the win column here today against a Northern Illinois team that won only 7 games last season, and has lost 9 of their L/11 games so far this season. Northern Illinois is a couple of seasons away from being a decent team, and today against a staunch defense that allows teams to average under 60 points per game their in trouble. Play on Arkansas LR
Oklahoma +12.5 / 2 units
Oklahoma(9-3) is every bit as good as I thought they would be this season, and West Virginia(10-1) in what supposed to be a rebuilding year, might be a little better than advertised. But no matter which way you slice it , the opening line of this tilt , gives us value in my opinion, backing the underdog. Play on Oklahoma
SPORTS MONITOR
MATCHUP: Charlotte Bobcats (10-17) at Orlando Magic (20-11)
WHEN/WHERE: Saturday, December 29th 7pm EST
THE LINE:
Orlando is -9.5 and the total is 199 points
TRENDS: Orlando is 22-9 against the spread this season. Charlotte is10-17 against the spread. Charlotte has covered one of theirlast nine road games.
GAME SUMMARY: Orlando has already defeated the Bobcats twice this season,winning by an average of 14.5 points.
PREDICTION: Orlando 105 Charlotte 93
Cash & Profit Experts
CFB
U Conn +2
Central Fl -3
NBA
Toronto +3
Boston -4
(3-1 Friday)
DOC HOOPS
4 Unit Play. #732 Take LSU -5 over Washington (3:00 pm ESPN Fullcourt) It’s the Huskies turn to make the long cross country flight as this home and home series finishes up in Baton Rouge. The Tigers have yet to lose a home game this season and the Huskies lost by 25 points in their only true road games of the season @ Oklahoma State.
4 Unit Play. #738 Take Wyoming -10 ½ over Milwaukee (3:30 pm The Mountain) The Panthers have been treading water all season long and continue to kick off their best players and have lost six of their last seven games. At the start of the season these teams were evenly matched on paper but with all the turmoil that UWM has went through, they just cannot compete on the road. First year Coach Heath Schroyer needs a big blowout win in front of his home fans to turn some of the faithful in support of him and he gets it today.
4 Unit Play. #740 Take Gonzaga -1 ½ over Tennessee (4:00 pm ESPN 2) The Vols have stroked it well this season from long range and thus have had an impressive 11-1 start to the season. But the Zags are still a solid team and quite frankly need this game more. This game is in Seattle and it will be a big crowd on hand in support of Gonzaga and that will propel them to a victory on Saturday. All three of Gonzaga’s losses have come against quality teams, but now it their turn to knock off of them off.
4 Unit Play. #745 Take Fresno State +21 over Stanford (5:00 pm FSN Bay Area) Way too many points to be laying considering both teams have winning records and this is just a bus ride away for the Bulldogs. These two squads met last year and the scoring was 69-67 in favor of the Cardinal. We expect a bigger gap this year but it will certainly fall under the number. Stanford likes to play at a deliberate pace and thus the scoring stays in the high sixties.
4 Unit Play. #753 Take Temple +8 ½ over Florida (6:30 pm ESPN U) Florida laid an egg last week on the road against Ohio State and thus is really not a home crowd edge for them playing in Sunrise. Florida does not have much experience and have lost their only two true tests of the season against Florida State and Ohio State. Both of those squads are just fringe teams this year and Temple will take this one right down to the wire.
4 Unit Play. #776 Take Creighton -7 over Illinois State (8:00 pm FSN Midwest) The Blue Jays have won four straight contests with the last three coming way over tonight’s posted number and the Qwest Center will be a major player tonight. Creighton has yet to lose a game there this season, currently 8-0 and Dane Watts will be too much for the Redbirds on Saturday.
6 Unit Play. #778 Take Wichita State -2 over Drake (8:00 pm) MVC Game of the Year. The Missouri Valley Conference gets underway for both teams this evening and the Shockers need this victory after a sluggish start to open the season during non-conference play. The Shockers have pulled it together recently with two impressive blowout wins against LSU and UAB and expect a similar result when taking on Drake. Many of the Bulldogs nine victories have come against the Iowa teams and the Hawkeyes and Cyclones are way down this season meaning those victories are not that impressive. This is just a classic MVC Game with a low number and home court will make all the difference.
RAS Totals:
Bradley under 133
Arkansas over 144
Marist under 135.5
St. Johns over 128
FERRINGO HOOPS
1-Unit Play. Take #721 Florida International (+19.5) over Purdue (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 29)
Purdue is just a bit spotty. Sure, they could win this one by 20. But the odds are severely against it. They have lost to Wofford and Iowa State and barely beat Lipscomb. I’m just not sure I want to lay that many points with a Boilers club that is on such a roller coaster.
6.5-Unit Play. Take #820 UNC-Wilmington (-4.5) over UNC-Greensboro (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
Here we have a great number on a intrastate rivalry game. UNC-Wilmington has some revenge for a loss last year at UNC-G and they are simply a much, much better team from a much, much better conference. Greensboro lost all five starters from last year’s team, is 0-4 ATS against teams from the CAA, and are 17-36 ATS after an ATS win. Wilmington is undefeated at home and are 23-8 ATS as a small home favorite. I think they lay a big number on the Spartans today and cash this one for us.
4.5-Unit Play. Texas Christian (-6) over Rice (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
TCU beat Rice by 27 points in November. That’s right: 27 points. Rice is an absolute horror of a basketball team: shooting 37 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3-point land. They’re awful. TCU is at least a competent basketball team, and they should cover this game with room to spare. We saw a similar situation this week with New Mexico at Hawaii as a 5-point favorite after hammering the Warriors by 29 earlier in the season. Even with all of the peripheral factors in that one the better team – the Lobos – still managed an easy cover. I think we have a similar situation here. Rice is 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 nonconference games and 1-7 ATS overall.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #778 Wichita State (-2) over Drake (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think people underestimate how much home court means in The Valley. Home teams won nealry 75 percent of all conference games through last year and I think this number is short by about four points. I've dogged WSU for most of the year but their recent play at home has been encouraging. The home team has won five of six in this series and we are backing the best player on the court (P.J. Couisnard).
3-Unit Play. Take #823 Austin Peay (-2) over Middle Tennessee State (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think that the Governors are a much, much better team here and I think they are more than capable of snagging a road win in this mini-rivalry. To this point, AP has won the games it should have won and lost the ones it should have lost. This is one they should win, and they will.
3-Unit Play. Take #733 Louisiana-Monroe (+20.5) over Arkansas (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
UL-M has a load of experience and are matched up against a team that lost – at home – to Appalachian State last week. They couldn’t cover against Wofford – one of the weakest teams in the nation – as a 23-point favorite this year. I don’t see them blowing out one of the Sun Belt favorites this season by 25 or 30. Arkansas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 and the SEC continues to be the most overvalued conference in the country. UL-M covered against Michigan State, hung around with Ole Miss for 30 minutes, and beat Iowa on the road. I think they can test a shaky Razorbacks team.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #781 Miami, OH (-3) over Cincinnati (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Going to the well here. The Redhawks have played the toughest schedule in the country to this point and are still 6-3 ATS. After an absolutely dreadful performance against Kansas I think they bounce back with a strong effort in this intrastate rivalry game. Cincinnati is 2-8-1 ATS at home and Miami is 7-1 ATS versus the Big East, 11-3 ATS in their L14, and 8-2 ATS on the road.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #741 Depaul (-2.5) over Detroit (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Short number here in a game featuring a large talent disparity. The Demons lost to Vanderbilt, but were good enough to be in that game. I think Detroit's style plays right into Depaul's strength and that we are getting a bargain on this number.
2-Unit Play. Take #731 Washington (+5) over LSU (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Man, here we have dumb and dumber. These are two of the shakiest, most reliably awful, pathetic teams from major conferences. So why even bother with this game? Because it’s a situation where neither team should be favored. LSU barely held off Oregon State last week and the Huskies are a much better squad than the Beavers. My favorite of all of the ugly ATS numbers here is that LSU is 1-8-1 at home, 0-5 against the Pac-10, 3-18-1 on Saturdays, and 3-13 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #745 Fresno State (+21) over Stanford (5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think Stanford is still a bit overrated after reacquiring the Twin Towers. Fresno State has been a decent performer this year and I just am not sure that the Cardinal will score enough to hang a 25- or 30-point beating on the Bulldogs, a squad that is used to matching up against top-notch competition.
1.5-Unit Play. Take # UC-Santa Barbara (-7) over Eastern Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Here we have one of the best teams on the West Coast matched up against one of the worst. The Gauchos lost to a much better EW team by one point last year. I’m thinking revenge, and I’m thinking that UCSB makes up for that poor performance at UNC last week by laying a beating down.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #739 Tennessee (+1.5) over Gonzaga (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
The number on this game is diving, and for good reason. Tennessee is an exceptional club that proved last week they can go into a hostile environment and steal a win. Gonzaga gets lax at times and while they are a very, very talented team they are not elite. I'm looking for a big, big game out of Chris Lofton today.
1-Unit Play. Take #775 Illinois State (+7) over Creighton (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I like the Redbirds this year. They are my MVC sleeper. I think they sneak in under this number after giving the Bluejays a scare.
1-Unit Play. Take #796 Rhode Island (-9) over Georgia Southern (6 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
The Rams have been wrecking people. Time to go to the well.
1-Unit Play. Take Northern Iowa (+5.5) over Bradley (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
It looks like Daniel Ruffin either won't play or certainly may not be 100 percent because of his strained abs. Bradley isn't the same team without their leading scorer and assist man.
The Real Animal
Pick title: 1* Central Florida -3
Mississippi State in a bowl game? Trust me, I’m as surprised as you are. Sure the Bulldogs were 7-5 thanks to wins over Tulane, Gardner Webb, UAB, and Ole Miss. This is their first bowl appearance since 2000, but I still have to wonder what kind of prize is it to travel from Starkville to Memphis. I’m passing this one on the premium service because it looks strange to me to see a Conference USA team favored over an SEC team. But UCF has a combination I really like: An experienced senior quarterback and the most prolific running back in the country. The Central Florida program has really prospered in recent years but they haven’t achieved the crowning jewel of a bowl victory yet. In 2005, they barely lost to Nevada in overtime 49-48. I know it was two months ago, but UCF allowing 52 at East Carolina and 64 at South Florida still has me somewhat hesitant about laying points with the Knights in SEC territory. Mississippi State upset Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama. Still, one has to figure Kevin Smith has a chip on his shoulder. How does a guy who ran for 2,448 yards and score 29 touchdowns not be a finalist for any of the post-season awards? Mississippi State is 1-5 SU and ATS against other bowl teams that own a winning percentage of .666 or higher. Plus they only statistically beat four opponents in 12 games this year. UCF has won seven straight games and appear to be peaking after a 3-3 start. I’m not thrilled with this one whatsoever
REAL ANIMAL
4* Wake Forest -2
4* Wake Forest 'UNDER' 47
Redzone
0-2 Yesterday
CBB Gonzaga
CBB NC Wilmingon
CFB Texas A&M
INDIAN COWBOY
Miss st. Under 54.5
Miss st. +3
Wizzards -8. POD
Rob Veno
Wake Under
Miss St
Penn St
Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet
736 Bradley -4.5 vs 735 Northern Iowa
Analysis: Off Back to Back losses expect a huge effort today in this Missouri Valley Conference Opener from Bradley. Vegas has over adjusted this line off of recent scores. Bradley Wins this by 10-13 Points. TAKE BRADLEY as MARCO'S 7* BASKETBALL HIGH ROLLER RELEASE and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Sat, 12/29/07 - 8:00 PMMarco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet
778 Wichita St -2.5 vs 777 Drake
Analysis: Here's another Game where we are getting great line value as Drake has won 8 in a row so Vegas has made this a Pick the Winner Contest. Wichita St at home in their Conference Opener is the way to go especially at this soft number. I have Wichita St. winning by 7-9 Points. TAKE WICHITA ST as and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY
FATSPREAD
daily free pick
NBA Clev +4
5* NCAAF Miss St +3
5* NcAAF Wake -2
5* NCAAF Penn St -6
2* NCAAF Wake under 46.5
4* NCAAF Penn St under 52
3* NFL Pats -13
5* NFL Pats 1st half over 24
4* NCAAB Ark LR -3
2* NCAAB Pitt -3
5* NCAAB Arizona +9
He has 3 Dog ML of the day
NBA Cavs +160
NCAAB Oklahoma +250
Boxing Cunningham +270
Atslocks.com
15 unit UCONN +2.5 VS Wake Forest
15 unit UIC +10 VS Akron
8 unit UCF -3 VS Mississippi
5 unit Penn St/Texas A&M UNDER 52
5 unit Penn St -5.5 VS Texas A&M
Yankee Capper
NFL
3 Units - New England/NYG Over 46 ½
NCAA Football
3 Units - Wake Forest -2 ½
2 Units - Mississippi St +3
1 Units - Penn State -5 ½
NBA
4 Units - Atlanta Hawks +9
2 Units - Detroit Pistons -4 ½
2 Units - New Orleans Hornets -4
2 Units - Boston Celtics -4 ½
NHL
5 Units - Philadelphia Flyers
5 Units - Colorado Avalanche
5 Units - Dallas Stars
3 Units - Edmonton Oilers +1 ½
NCAA Basketball
2 Units - Gonzaga -1 ½
2 Units - Oklahoma +7 ½
1 Units - La Salle +18
Brent Crow
15* Superplay Creighton - 6.5
Sides Troy +7.5 Gonzaga -1.5
three2won
Sat, 12/29/07 - 4:00 PMThree2Won | CBB Sides Single-Dime Bet
739 Tennessee 1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 740 Gonzaga
Analysis:
Tennessee +1.5
This line is a mask.
They see Washington, and think home court for Gonzo. This is not home court.
They think travel and distance.......The Vols are rested.
They think Heytveldt and think production, but he had 5 points in his first game back, and he's now facing one of the most difficult full-court teams in the country. He will not be conditioned to handle this.
Matt Bouldin is coming off injury as well?
I like a system that doesn't even consider Mr. Prince.
Let's grab the points!
I understand if people believe that Gonzaga has a good team, because I believe they do, but two of their best players are coming off injuries, and the slowness and fatigue showed against Oklahoma.
It was nothing unusual to see Oklahoma beating up on Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are 1-4 over their last 5 games VS ranked opponents. So they are not as great as people thing in the big games.
And consider this:
Tennessee beat West Virginia (at WVU), which is playing Oklahoma today.WVU is a 7 point favorite. HMMM?
This shows a little bit of deviation between lines. Oklahoma controlled Gonzaga and won, and now they are BIG underdogs to a team that Tennessee beat on the road?
Tennessee is a strong road team. The PRESS travels well.
Again: There is no disrespect to Gonzaga here, but they are facing a team that makes a living off the press. Their turnover rate is unbelievable, and nobody has been able to stop them in transition.
So now we have a gimpy Matt Bouldin, and an out of shape druggie (Heytveldt) running back and forth (Surgery in November on the foot).
Im sorry if I cant see the reason for the dog spot here, but here is a tout that makes the squarest write-up of the day list. I guess this is why we are dogs:
1 Unit on Gonzaga -1 I like the Zags in their neck of the woods at Key Arena. The Vols are just 13-31 ATS in all neutral court games since 1997, 2-10 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997, and 1-8 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Zags are 22-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick since 1997 and 13-2 ATS on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
I cannot stand services that spit out data that is 10 years old. This is the most misleading crap available, and its a lazy and unsophisticated way to promote information.
And Key Arena is not in Gonzagas neck of the woods!
Key Arena is in Seattle.
Gonzaga is in on the freaking Idaho border!
Its almost like saying Gainsville Florida is in Tennessees neck of the woods!
I digress: Tennessee is a good bet as the underdog
Sat, 12/29/07 - 1:00 PMThree2Won | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
414 Wake Forest -2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 413 Connecticut
Analysis:
Wake Forest -2
I apologize for the lack of a write-up here....you deserve to get all the facts presented to you, but I am covered up on a busy capping day, and it takes a bunch of time to reasearch, and then write the analysis.
This is simply a situtation where Wake is a more rounded out, dynamic, and battle hardened team, playing close to home. I'm in Charlotte right now, and there are a load of Wake fans here. I don't hang anything on home field advantage in these bowl games, but they will have a quiet crowd during key downs.
I love getting anything under 3 points.
Our defense is better, our offense is actually better, and far more complex than anything UCONN has seen outside of last years 11 point loss to Wake, and their spanking from WVU.
I like our chances in this game.
Sat, 12/29/07 - 1:05 PMThree2Won | NBA Total Single-Dime Bet
702 DAL / 701 ATL Over 189.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Dallas OVER 189
If youre new to my plays, then you would have missed the fact that I found the reason why Atlantas point production has increased.
They stopped launching 23 3-pointers and started limiting the low percentage shots. Missed shots lead to no points and wasted time. They lead to unders. Atlanta had a tendency to seek the perimeter and I believe it hurt them.
They are going inside now.
Part of this was because they are injured on the perimeter, so we get to see Joe Johnson driving and harassing people underneath the ARC. This has led to more fouls, more high percentage shots, and increased assist production.
All of this translates to points.
Its also why you see all of these 100+ games from the Hawks (Who average 94.4)
Their lowest output in the last 4 games was 97 points.
They scored OVER 107 in 3 of those games.
There is a philosophical shift occurring, so I think they can help us get over the number today.
Dallas is a bit wobbly, but they may come out hard, since Atlanta beat them already this year. The final score was 101-94, and Dallas was short handed in that game.
I believe we will see a strong effort out of Dallas, and I suppose thats where we will live or die in this wager. Dallas must produce. The odds-makers are seeing Atlantas PERCIEVED defense (94.4), but that has begun to shift as well.
I think Dallas can get us to 100 points today.
Now heres the clicker, and the reason why I like the OVER:
I think we can get 50 personal fouls today, maybe 60 if were lucky.
The referees in this game are not overwhelming OVER guys, but they are all sitting around 199 points per game on average.
Theres a reason for that with two of these Refs:
Jack Nies is notorious for calling back-to-back-to-back Technical fouls. He is a ticky-tack guy, so I think his number is actually justified. He likes to see guys on the line.
James Capers is best known for his phantom fouls.
Id like to this pick with more analysis, but time is pressing.