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(@jimmythegreek)
Posts: 966
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3:30 p.m. ET: Alabama (6-0, ranked 3rd) at Tennessee (5-0, ranked 6th)

This SEC clash of undefeated and highly ranked teams is the most heavily bet game on Saturday's slate. Alabama is coming off a 24-20 win over Texas A&M but failed to cover as 24.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Tennessee just destroyed LSU 40-13, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is rushing to window to grab Tennessee plus the points. However, despite 74% of bets backing the Vols, we've actually seen this line move further to Alabama -7 to -8.5. Some shops are even up to Alabama -9. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Crimson Tide with pros laying the points with the contrarian favorite and fading trendy dog Tennessee. Alabama is only receiving 26% of bets but 37% of money, a sharp +11% bet discrepancy. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. Lean Alabama

7:30 p.m. ET: Mississippi State (5-1, ranked 16th) at Kentucky (4-2, ranked 22nd)

These SEC opponents are trending in opposite directions. Mississippi State has won three-straight games and just crushed Arkansas 40-17, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kentucky has lost two-straight games and just fell to South Carolina 24-14, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Mississippi State listed as a 6-point road favorite. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with the Bulldogs. However, we've seen Mississippi State fall from -6 to -4. Some shops are even down to 3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kentucky, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog Wildcats. Kentucky is only getting 40% of bets but 60% of money, a sharp +20% bet discrepancy. Kentucky also has value as a contrarian conference dog with a line move in their favor. Lean Kentucky

Other sharp Plays

Under in Kent St 62
Kent St +7.5

Good luck everyone !

 
Posted : October 15, 2022 1:41 pm
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