Saturday's Early Bowl Tips

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
December 28, 2017
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

**Louisville vs. Mississippi State**

Taxslayer Bowl History

-- The Louisville Cardinals (8-4 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference meet the Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the Southeastern Conference in a Power 5 matchup at EverBank Field in the Taxslayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla. Or, as old school football fans like to call it - The Gator Bowl.

-- The Cardinals had defending Heisman QB Lamar Jackson back under center to start the season, and things were looking up after a neutral-site win over Purdue and a road win at North Carolina to kick off the conference schedule. However, things went off the rails in a 47-21 thrashing from Clemson on Sept. 16 in the home opener. After rebounding with victories against creampuffs Kent State and FCS Murray State, it was North Carolina State humbling the Cards 39-25 in Raleigh on a Thursday night to effective change the dreams of Louisville. They didn't wake up, even with nine days to prepare for a home game against Boston College, losing 45-42. They rebounded with a nice win at Florida State on Oct. 21, and they finished with three straight wins and covers to close out the season, ending on a high note, including a 44-17 spanking of rival Kentucky in Lexington.

-- Offense is not a problem for Louisville. They ranked third in the nation in total yards per game (560.5), while checking in 13th in passing yards per game (310.6) and 14th in rushing yards per contest (249.9). They were also 11th in the country in scoring offense (39.0), while converting 88.2 percent of their field-goal tries to rank seventh overall in that category. The problems for the Cards are on the defensive side of the ball. They allowed a rather average 386.8 yards per game to rank 61st in the country. That's not terrible, but they allowed 232.8 yards per game through the air to rank 78th, while allowing 153.9 yards per game on the ground to check in 52nd. They allowed 27.1 points per game, which was only good for 70th in the land.

-- Jackson fell short in his pursuit to join Ohio State's Archie Griffin as the only back-to-back Heisman winner, but he did get invited to the ceremonies and ended up third overall. The quarterback had another stellard season, completing 60.4 percent of his pass attempts for 3,489 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions, while leading the team with 1,443 rushing yards and 17 scores while gobbling up 6.9 yards per attempt. While his numbers were slightly down from his Heisman campaign, his completion percentage and yards per rush were actually much better. However, the fact that his team suffered four losses, and a couple of them ugly losses, hurt his chances to win the award.

-- When Jackson isn't running the ball, RB Malik Williams or former QB Reggie Bonnafon is toting the rock. Williams averaged 8.4 yards per carry with 518 rushing yards, while Bonnafon logged 446 yards and seven touchdowns, second only to Jackson. He also caught a touchdown out of the backfield. WR Jaylen Smith led the team with 53 receptions and 873 yards, and he found the end zone six times. Freshman WR Dez Fitzpatrick led the team in his initial campaign with nine touchdowns while averaging 15.5 yards per reception.

Advertisement
-- Unlike Louisville, it was Mississippi State starting out fairly well and then limping to the finish line. And, the Bulldogs are in a coaching transition, as Dan Mullen bolted for the head coaching job at Florida. The Bulldogs did record an impressive 37-7 win over Louisiana State back on Sept. 16, starting out 3-0 SU/ATS. They found out how good Auburn and Georgia were in the following two weeks, however, getting outscored 80-13 in two losses. They bounced back with four wins in a row to head into the Alabama game on a high note, and they gave the Crimson Tide a scare. However, Alabama came away with a 31-24 win in Starkville, although Mississippi State covered. The Bulldogs wrapped up their season with a 31-28 setback at home Thanksgiving night against rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.

-- The Bulldogs do a lot of things well on offense, but passing isn't one of them. They ranked 45th in total yards per game (419.8), 15th in rushing yards per game (249.6) and 38th in scoring offense (32.1 PPG), and their kicking game is sound. However, they ranked just 110th in the country by posting 170.2 yards per game through the air. On defense, Mississippi State can hang with anyone, ranking 10th in total defense with just 302.0 yards per game allowed, 12th in the country in passing defense (175.0) and 23rd in rushing defense (127.0). They were also 25th in scoring defense (20.4).

-- QB Nick Fitzgerald led the charge through the air, completing 55.6 percent of his passes for 1,782 yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while also rushing for 984 yards and 14 touchdowns. He's like a poor man's Lamar Jackson, and he is sure to want to elevate his game in this showcase against the former Heisman winner. RB Aeris Williams can also rush the football well, going for 1,019 yards and five scores. No player had more than 275 receiving yards, but nine players had 128 or more receivng yards for the season. Again, passing isn't the team's strong suit, but there are several players capable of stepping up. WR Deddrick Thomas posted five touchdowns combined, and can be a threat.

-- The Cardinals have four of their past five overall, but they're just 2-7 ATS in the past nine against teams with a winning record and 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight games against teams from outside of the ACC.

-- The Bulldogs have covered five of their past seven against teams with a winning record, but they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven following a straight-up loss and 1-4 ATS in their past five tries against an ACC foes.

-- The under has cashed in four straight bowl games for Louisville, while going 5-0-1 in their past six neutral-site battles. The under is also 4-1 in their past five when stepping outside of the conference.

-- The under is 5-2 in Mississippi State's past seven games overall, but the 'over' is 4-1 in their past five tries against ACC teams while going 6-2 in their past eight following a non-cover in the previous outing.

-- Louisville was humbled by LSU in the Citrus Bowl last season, falling 29-9, but they are a respectable 3-2 SU in five bowl games overall against the SEC, including wins over Alabama in the 1990 Fiesta Bowl, Florida in the 2012 Sugar Bowl (a BCS game) and Texas A&M in the 2015 Music City Bowl.

-- Mississippi State has been very successful in bowl games dating all the way back to 1999. They won the St. Petersburg Bowl last season against Miami (Ohio), and they're 8-2 SU over the past 10 bowl games appearances. They lost in Jacksonville in their last appearance in the 2013 Gator Bowl to Northwestern, 34-20, but won the game on Jan. 1, 2011 against Michigan by a 52-14 score.

-- This is the first-ever meeting on the football field between these two schools.

-- Kickoff is slated for 12:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Iowa State vs. Memphis**

Liberty Bowl History

-- In the Liberty Bowl, it's a home game for the Memphis Tigers (10-2 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread) of the American Athletic Conference. They'll face the Iowa State Cyclones (7-5 straight up, 10-1-1 against the spread) of the Big 12 Conference.

-- There weren't a lot of people who pegged the Cyclones for a bowl game before the season began. They opened with a sound 42-24 win over FCS Northern Iowa, but Vegas didn't even think much of them by favoring them by just 10 points in that one. They lost a heartbreaker to Iowa in overtime, blowing a late 10-point lead to fall 44-41. They 'Clones were able to bounce back at Akron for a 41-14 win, but they fell at home to Texas on a Thursday night, 17-7, and appeared destined for mediocrity and/or a losing season. So not much was expected from Iowa State when they hit the road for Norman, Okla. on Oct. 7, and they were facing a huge mountain as 31-point underdogs. But Iowa State shocked the college football world with a 38-31 road win, and they went on to rattle off four wins in a row against Kansas, at Texas Tech and at home against Texas Christian, another college football heavyweight. They were cooled off a bit in a loss at West Virginia on Nov. 4, and at home against Oklahoma State in a controversial finish the next week. They also suffered a heartbreaker at Kansas State, 20-19, on Nov. 25. If things break a certain way late, perhaps with a more experienced team, this is a nine- or 10-win club.

-- The strength of Iowa State is the pass game. They ranked 33rd in the nation with 269.5 yards per game, but they were dismal in the run game with just 120.8 yards per game on the ground, good for 112th in the country. They were marginal in points scored, averaging 29.9 per outing. The field-goal game is good when it has to be, hitting 81.0 percent of their attempts to rank 35th in the country. On defense, Iowa State was 45th in total defense, allowing just 368.4 yards per outing. They were soft against the pass at times, allowing 234.2 yards per game, but 30th against the run (134.2) while yielding just 21.0 points per contest, good for 28th in the land.

-- QB Jacob Park needed to take a personal leave from the team earlier in the season, and he wasn't playing poorly. But QB Kyle Kempt stepped in and took things to a while new level, completing 66.8 percent of his pass attempts for 1,473 yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. QB Zeb Noland also proved capable if needed, and with the writing on the wall in Ames, Park was released from his scholarship and allowed to transfer.

-- RB David Montgomery is a threat on the ground, amassing 1,095 yards with 11 touchdowns on his 234 attempts. Sheldon Croney Jr., a sophomore plucked from Southern California, showed glimpses of brilliance with 5.2 yards per carry, and is next in line. WR Allen Lazard posted 799 yards with nine combined touchdowns this season, and he had 13.1 yards per catch. He is the big-play guy for the Cyclones, and he has the size (6'5 and 222 pounds) to take it to the next level. WR Hakeem Butler posted 16.3 yards per catch with six touchdowns, and senior WR Marchie Murdock was a nice tertiary option in the pass game with 475 yards and five scores.

-- Hopefully the Iowa State secondary packed their track shoes, because they're going to be forced to run. Memphis ranked fourth in the country in total yards per game (548.2), ranking eighth in the nation in passing offense (339.1) and second in points scored (47.7). Their run game is often overlooked as a result, but they posted 209.1 yards per game on the ground to check in 29th. On defense, well, the Tigers didn't have much. They allowed 476.2 yards per game to rank 121st in the country, they allowed 279.4 yards per game through the air to rank 122nd, and they were just a tick better against the run, allowing 196.8 yards per game on the ground, good for 99th.

-- QB Riley Ferguson is the field general, and an underrated one as far as national attention is concerned. He completed 63.0 percent of his pass attempts for 3,971 yards, 36 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He also ran for six touchdowns, but don't confuse him for a dual-threat option. RB Darrell Henderson was the lead back of a two-headed monster, posting 1,161 yards with nine touchdowns and 8.9 yards per attempt. When they need a little more muscle it's Patrick Taylor Jr., who bulled into the end zone 13 times with 5.8 yards per try. WR Anthony Miller has the potential to be a great one at the next level, similar to former Tigers WR Isaac Bruce. He posted 92 receptions for 1,407 yards and 17 touchdowns while averaging 15.3 yards per reception. WR Tony Pollard is overlooked, but he had a solid 14.7 yards per game with four scores, and senior WR Phil Mayhue was good for 30 grabs for 436 yards and a pair of scores.

-- Iowa State was an impressive 10-1-1 ATS in 12 games this season, including 5-0-1 ATS in six games on the road. They're 4-0 ATS across their past four non-conference games, 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 overall and 10-1-1 ATS in their past 12 against teams with a winning overall record.

-- Memphis was no slouch against the number this season, either. They're 3-0-1 ATS in their past four at home and 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight overall. However, they are just 4-10-1 ATS in the past 15 against teams with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in the past five bowl games and a dismal 0-3-1 ATS in the past four home games against a team with a winning road record.

-- It's a tale of two teams as far as the totals are concerned. The 'under' is 6-1 in Iowa State's past seven. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six for Memphis. The 'under' is 4-0 in Iowa State's past four road games. The 'over' is 19-7 in the past 26 at home for Memphis. The 'under' is 4-0-1 in the past five bowls for Iowa State. The 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven bowl games for Memphis. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five against a winning team for ISU. The 'over' is 10-2 in the past 12 vs. a winning team for Memphis. Anyway, you get the picture.

-- Iowa State is back in a bowl for the first time since Dec. 31, 2012, when they fell 31-17 to Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl. They're 0-2 SU all-time in the Liberty Bowl, also falling 31-30 to Georgia Tech in the 1972 installment of the game when Johnny Majors was their head coach. Iowa State is just 3-9 SU all-time in bowls. This is their first trip with Matt Campbell at the helm.

-- Memphis has been to a bowl in four straight seasons, but they have dropped two in a row. They fell to Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl last season by a 51-31 count, and have dropped their past two bowl games by an average of 20.5 points. This will be the first-ever meeting against a Big 12 opponent in a bowl, and it's their first-ever appearance in the Liberty Bowl in their home stadium.

-- This is the first-ever meeting on the football field between these two institutions.

-- Kickoff is slated for 12:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.