SEC Betting Preview
By Power Sports
Covers.com
We start our look at the 2015 College Football season, conference by conference, with the SEC. Contrary to popular belief, this is not a conference on the decline, though last season marked the first time since 2006 that one of its members failed to play for the National Championship, ironically the first year we had an actual playoff. (SEC teams covered the spread in the Championship Game each of the final eight years of the BCS).
While there is no guarantee that the SEC will avoid its first three-year National Championship drought since 2000-2003 come 2016, the league remains the deepest in the country, particularly the West division where all seven teams again are likely to end up in a bowl at season's end. Only Kentucky and Vanderbilt failed to make the postseason last year, meaning there were 12 bowlers (#1 in country) and the SEC's 51-12 record vs. non-conference foes a year ago was also the best nationally.
Here's what to look for this season.
Championship Game Pick - Alabama vs. Georgia
This would be the second time in four years we would have this pairing. If it happens, it would also be a regular season rematch as the teams play October 3rd in Athens. Bama has won 17 of 18 vs. the SEC East, including 12 straight. Even being the road team, the Crimson Tide could be favored for the regular season matchup and if they are, it would mark the 73rd consecutive game they've been the chalk. The biggest concern right now in Tuscaloosa is having only 10 returning starters, including just three on the offensive side of the ball. I have my doubts about QB Jake Coker, but the key will be that the defense is going to be much better than it was last year when it allowed 18.4 PPG (most in last seven seasons). Interestingly, both teams must play at Auburn late in November. I highly doubt either will make it through the regular season unscathed (meaning unbeaten). Georgia was actually favored in all of its games LY and it's unlikely they'll lose three times outright in B2B years. They clearly are the strongest team on paper in the weaker East Division. Despite losing RB Todd Gurley to the NFL, UGA just may have the strongest running game in the entire nation!
Team on the Rise - LSU
The Bayou Bengals lost five games in 2014, three of them coming by a TD or less, but are primed to bounce back in Les Miles' 11th season at the helm. Really, the lone question mark is at QB, but this will be Brandon Harris' second season as the starter. They have their most returning starters in a decade and could very well be 8-0 when they hit the road to play Bama on the first Saturday of November (both will be off byes). That game will be one of four revenge spots for Miles' team, the other three coming against Mississippi State, Auburn and Arkansas. (I wouldn't be surprised if they go 3-0 SU in those). I have the Tigers finishing second behind Alabama in the tough West.
Team on the Decline - Mississippi State
Last year was a dream campaign in Starkville as MSU won 10 games (most ever under HC Dan Mullen) and reached #1 in the polls just three weeks after being unranked! However, they won't be taken lightly this year and with only seven returning starters (fewest in the SEC), it very well could be a last place finish in the West. They, in fact, could need a win in the Egg Bowl (vs. Miss), where they have revenge, just to make a bowl. Mullen built up enough goodwill last year that it won't matter, and he does have a Heisman candidate in QB Dak Prescott, but expect the Bulldogs to finish with a losing conference record.
Team to Bet on - South Carolina
For once, the Ol' Ball Coach is under the radar. Not much is being expected from Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks coming into the year, but I wouldn't be surprised at a second place finish in the East. Potentially, they could be an underdog in half of their regular season games, which equates to some nice potential value. They will have revenge against Missouri, Texas A&M and Tennessee, all road games, so consider the points there. Also, I don't see USC losing to Kentucky two straight years. Remember that they were 7-0 SU back to back years in Columbia before going 4-3 SU there last season. I expect improvement on 2014's 5-8 ATS finish.
Team to Fade - Arkansas
Yes, the Hogs have made strides under HC Bret Bielema and are likely to build on last year's winning record. But let's not forget this team has won a total of two, yes two, SEC games under Bielema in 16 tries. They have not won a conference game away from home in 10 tries and this year must travel to play both Alabama and LSU. Those betting the Razorbacks went 10-3 ATS last season, but they were also a dog in all but one league game and the one they were favored (at Missouri) saw them lose outright. Therefore, look to go against them if favored in 2015, particularly at Tennessee on Oct 3 as they have Alabama on deck.
Other Things to Know
Tennessee, who has lost 26 of its last 27 games vs. ranked opponents, is expected to continue a resurgence after ending its three-year bowl drought. This is due to having a league-high 18 returning starters. But I do not believe they are a legit contender to win the conference.
Kentucky and Vanderbilt are again the worst two teams in the SEC, easily.
Isn't it about time for Missouri to regress? The Tigers have shockingly gone 14-4 SU (13-5 ATS) in two years of SEC play, winning the East both times. Even with a schedule that sets up fairly favorably in 2015, I do not see a three-peat.
SEC East Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The SEC East is wide open in 2015. Yes, Georgia appears to have the best overall talent, but the quarterback position is a major question mark. With Hutson Mason graduating after filling a one-year gap preceded by four seasons of Aaron Murray under center, the job falls to third-year sophomore Brice Ramsey.
Not only is there the uncertainty at QB, but there's also the Mark Richt Thing. You see, regardless of whether or not UGA has the best talent or not, it always finds a way to lose at least one game it shouldn't on Richt's watch. For instance, the Bulldogs got pounded 38-20 by a Florida team that threw the ball only six times for 27 yards in the annual Jacksonville showdown last year.
Trailing South Carolina by three with a first-and-goal situation late in the fourth quarter, UGA got away from the ground game, was forced to kick a short field goal, which missed, and it lost in Columbia. Then in the regular-season finale, red-zone fumbles caused the Dawgs to drop an overtime game at home to arch-rival Georgia Tech.
After exploding for nearly 1,600 rushing yards and scoring 16 touchdowns as a true freshman, Nick Chubb is back as a serious Heisman Trophy contender. The offense will revolve around him and his talented back-ups like Sony Michel and Keith Marshall, who is finally healthy after a pair of injury-plagued campaigns.
After more than a decade at offensive coordinator, alum Mike Bobo replaced Jim McElwain as the new Colorado State head coach. Brian Schottenheimer, who was a career back-up to Danny Wuerffel at Florida in the 1990s, is the new OC after spending more than a decade in the NFL, most recently as the OC for the St. Louis Rams.
The defense has a pair of All-American candidates in Jordan Jenkins and Leonard Floyd. Jenkins and Floyd combined for 11 sacks and 41 QB hurries in 2014.
UGA's season win total is nine ('over' -140) and its odds to win the SEC are 5/1. Richt's squad is the +170 'chalk' to win the East and has 28/1 odds to win the College Football Playoff.
Georgia draws Alabama out of the West, but it gets the Crimson Tide in Athens. I have UGA finishing 9-3, losing at Tennessee and at Auburn. I think the Bulldogs will beat Alabama but take a third loss either vs. Florida or at Georgia Tech. I'm on the sidelines for UGA in terms of preseason bets.
Tennessee won four of its last five games, signed another strong recruiting class and takes momentum into the 2015 campaign. However, has the offseason love been a little much? After all, we're talking about a storied program that's basically fallen off the map since the misguided dismissal of Phil Fulmer, one of college football's all-time great coaches. Consider this: UT hasn't won more than seven games since 2007.
Jones is 12-13 with the Vols, but he's energized the fan base by killing it on the recruiting trail. He waited entirely too long to turn to Josh Dobbs last year, though. Dobbs went 4-1 in five starts, but all four wins came over unranked opponents and the Vols mustered only 262 yards of total offense in a 24-17 win at Vanderbilt.
Dobbs had a 9/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and rushed for eight TDs. He was UT's second-leading rusher behind rising sophomore Jalen Hurd, who ran for 899 yards and five TDs as a true freshman. Hurd will get help in the backfield from juco transfer Alvin Kamara, who was an original Alabama signee that was impressive during spring ball.
Dobbs has a talented array of wide receivers, including veterans Pig Howard and Marquez North. Von Pearson is expected to be reinstated to the team after charges were recently dropped for an off-the-field incident.
Tennessee has lost 10 in a row to Florida and has to open SEC play in Gainesville. After facing the Gators, the Vols have tough back-to-back home games against Arkansas and Georgia. Following an open date, they play at Alabama. There's also a road game at Missouri, in addition to a non-conference showdown vs. Oklahoma at Neyland Stadium in Week 2.
UT's win total is eight ('over' -125). The Vols have 10/1 odds to win the SEC and 65/1 odds to win the CFB Playoff. They are +260 to win the East for the first time since 2007. I have UT finishing 8-4.
In its first three seasons in the SEC, Missouri has made it to Atlanta twice. The Tigers are looking to win the East for a third straight time. They have +490 odds to do so (risk $100 to win $490).
Gary Pinkel's team brings back six starters on offense and five on defense from a team that finished 11-3 straight up and 9-5 against the spread. A sixth returning starter on defense, junior DT Harold Brantley, was lost for the season due to injuries sustained in an unfortunate car crash.
Junior QB Maty Mauk owns a 14-4 record in 18 career starts. He can hurt opponents with his arm and his legs. Despite struggling through a four-game slump in October last year, Mauk still has a 36/15 TD-INT ratio for his career. However, his top four pass catchers from last season have departed.
On the bright side, RB Russell Hansbrough returns after rushing for 1,084 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.3 yards per carry in 2014. The defense is led by a pair of elite linebackers in Kentrell Brothers (second-team All-SEC last year) and Michael Scherer (114 tackles in '14).
Missouri will host Mississippi State from the West on a Thursday night, in addition to its regular-season finale at Arkansas. In non-conference play, the Tigers will take on BYU in Kansas City. We should note that the matchup against the Cougars looks easier today after the recent news about Jamaal Williams, the star BYU running back who will miss the 2015 season for 'personal reasons.'
I think Missouri will go 9-3, losing at Georgia and at Arkansas. Where will the third loss come? It may not, but the guess is that the Tigers will drop one of three home games vs. Florida, South Carolina or Tennessee. A Week 4 road game at Kentucky might also be tricky.
I haven't played it yet, but I'm not against a wager for Missouri to go 'over' eight wins because it provides plus money (+115 at most spots). The Tigers have 18/1 odds to win the SEC.
Florida is the division's great unknown. The Gators have a new head coach, a pair of new coordinators, lots of talent on defense and questions galore on the offensive side of the ball. Will Grier, the likely starter at QB, is a redshirt freshman who hasn't taken a collegiate snap yet.
Grier will have to hold off Treon Harris in an open competition throughout August. The Gators have an elite WR in DeMarcus Robinson, a veteran RB in Kelvin Taylor and a solid TE in Jake McGee. The hope is that Brandon Powell is going to have a breakout year playing out of the slot position.
The biggest concern for UF is an inexperienced offensive line. Phil Steele has this unit ranked last in the SEC along with Vandy's o-line.
Defense won't be a problem. Vernon Hargreaves III is considered the country's top cover corner. With outstanding talents like Brian Poole, Marcus Maye, Keanu Neal and Jalen Tabor, UF's secondary might be the nation's best along with the units at LSU and Va. Tech.
UF's win total is seven flat (-115 either way) and its odds to win the SEC are 30/1. The Gators have three huge swing games at home against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida State. They have never been home underdogs to the Vols or Rebels, but the Games of the Year have UT and Ole Miss favored for their trips to The Swamp.
I could see UF's season going a number of different ways. If the o-line can avoid injuries and do an adequate job, Grier's life will be easier. If the redshirt freshman QB develops quickly, the offense should be vastly improved and that'll make for a much better team. Remember, UF could've easily won against LSU, South Carolina and FSU last year. It was basically three plays away (a pick-six at FSU, a blocked punt vs. South Carolina and a dropped TD vs. LSU) from being a 10-win team.
Therefore, if things break right, a 9-3 season isn't out of the question. Then again, if the o-line struggles immensely, Grier is going to get beat up. If that's the case, UF could be 3-2 going into a three-game stretch at Missouri, at LSU and vs. Georgia.
After the injuries in 2013 and the three aforementioned heartbreakers from last year, I'm thinking the Gators are due a few breaks. Therefore, I'll call for an 8-4 season in Gainesville.
South Carolina fell to 7-6 in 2014 after producing three straight 11-win seasons that resulted in Top-10 finishes. The Gamecocks lost three games (vs. Missouri, at UK and vs. Tennessee) in which they had double-digit leads in the fourth quarter, and also lost 42-35 at Auburn in a game where they turned the ball over in the red zone three times.
Steve Spurrier's squad returns just four starters on offense and eight on defense. After an abysmal year on the defensive side of the ball, Spurrier has reunited with Jon Hoke, who has been in the NFL for 14 straight years. Before going to the NFL, Hoke served as Spurrier's DC in his last three seasons at Florida from 1999-2001.
This unit can't possibly be worse than last year, but how much will the offense fall off after losing RB Mike Davis, QB Dylan Thompson and All-SEC guard A.J. Cann? The QB job falls to Connor Mitch, who has only taken snaps during garbage time. Mitch will have the SEC's best WR in Pharoh Cooper, who had 69 receptions for 1,136 yards and nine TDs last season. Cooper also had a pair of rushing TDs and two TD passes.
South Carolina draws LSU (at home) and Texas A&M (in College Station) from out of the West. Three of the non-conference games will be tough as well, including the opener vs. North Carolina in Charlotte and the regular-season finale vs. Clemson. The Gamecocks also host UCF.
Spurrier's squad has a win total of 6.5 ('over' -125). Without knowing how Mitch will perform, I don't have any degree of confidence in picking this team's record. My guess is 7-5.
Mark Stoops is hoping Year 3 will bring about a turn of the corner and a return to the postseason. Kentucky was on the cusp of a bowl bid last season when it started 5-1 against the easier portion of its schedule. However, as the slate became tougher, the Wildcats dropped five consecutive SEC games by double-digit margins.
They had a chance to get bowl eligible with a fourth-quarter lead in their regular-season finale at Louisville. But UK couldn't hold on and fell by a 44-40 count to finish 5-7 SU and 6-5-1 ATS.
UK brings back 14 starters, including seven on each side of the ball. Junior QB Patrick Towles, who had a 14/9 TD-INT ratio and rushed for six scores in 2014, will have to hold off redshirt freshman Drew Barker for the starting job.
Stanley 'Boom' Williams will carry the bulk of the rushing load after averaging 6.6 YPC last year. UK's leading receiver Ryan Timmons is also back in the fold. However, the defense lost its two best players in first-round draft choice Alvin 'Bud' Dupree and Za'Darius Smith.
UK's win total is 5.5 ('over' -130) and I think that's a good number. I have the 'Cats finishing 5-7, but they could win at home vs. Florida.
With James Franklin running the show at Penn State now, Vanderbilt appears to be Vanderbilt again. Seriously, how on earth did Franklin win 24 games at Vandy during a stunning three-year tenure?
Derek Mason showed plenty of inexperience in his first season as a head coach. The Commodores finished 3-9 SU and 6-6 ATS, keeping only four of eight SEC games remotely competitive. They lost by double-digit margins in seven of eight league contests.
Vandy returns 18 starters, but it is still has question marks galore. Who will win the QB job? Can the o-line create holes for talented RB Ralph Webb, who ran for 912 yards as a true freshman? How improved will the defense be?
Vandy's win total is 3.5 ('under' -130). I believe the difference between winning three or four games this year will be determined by the Nov. 14 result of a home game vs. Kentucky.
2015 NCAAF Conference Preview - SEC
By Will Rogers
Covers.com
Alabama Crimson Tide (2014: 12-2 SU, 5-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +300
Season win total: 9.5
Why to bet the Crimson Tide: Nick Saban's squad always has one of the top recruiting classes, and they come into the 2015 season with another talented group of freshman. The strength of this team is in it's defense, returning eight starters from 2014. The defensive line is as good as it's ever been, and Reggie Ragland turned down the NFL to play another year after recording 95 tackles last season.
Why not to bet the Crimson Tide: There was no money to be made backing Alabama last season, as they failed to cover in nine of their 14 games. They will likely continue to be overrated by the bookmakers this season, and replacing their starting quarterback, top wide receiver and leading rusher is going to be a daunting task. Whoever the new quarterback is will be thrown right into the fire with a neutral site game against Wisconsin in Week 1.
Season win total pick: Under 9.5
Georgia Bulldogs (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +450
Season win total: 9
Why to bet the Bulldogs: Nick Chubb emerged as one of the most talented running backs in the SEC, running for 1547 yards as a freshman in 2014. He's considered a true contender for the Heisman this year, behind a skilled offensive line that returns four starters.
Why not to bet the Bulldogs: There are plenty of question marks in the passing game, with a new quarterback and a lack of experience at wide receiver. It could take some time for things to come together under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
Season win total pick: Over 9
Auburn Tigers (2014: 8-5 SU, 4-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +475
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Tigers: The arrival of new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has the Tigers extremely optimistic about their defense in 2015. He's getting eight starters back from last season's depth chart, including the top three tacklers: safety Jonathan Ford and linebackers Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost.
Why not to bet the Tigers: The Tigers only have four starters returning on offense, and backup Jeremy Johnson will take over for Nick Marshall at quarterback. They won't have a lot of time to figure things out, as they travel to Baton Rouge to take on LSU in mid September in their first game in conference play.
Season win total: Under 8.5
LSU Tigers (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +775
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Tigers: Leonard Fournette appears to be primed for a big season, and the former five star recruit comes in bigger and stronger than he's ever been according to Les Miles. The Tigers return eight starters on both sides of the ball, and they should have one of the best secondaries in the nation again in 2015.
Why not to bet the Tigers: Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris were both brutal at quarterback last season, and neither has shown significant signs of improvement heading into 2015. The duo managed to throw for more than 150 yards just once during conference play last season, and that was a loss to Mississippi State.
Season win total pick: Over 8
Mississippi Rebels (2014: 9-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +850
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Rebels: Mississippi returns nine starters on offense, and eight starters on a defensive unit that finished the 2014 season ranked 1st in the nation allowing an average of just 16 points per game. All five starters return on the offensive line, and that will make life easier for a team breaking in a new quarterback.
Why not to bet the Rebels: They beat Alabama last year, but that was in Oxford. They will have to travel to Tuscaloosa to play the Crimson Tide this year, and Alabama hasn't lost at home since 2012. They also have tough road games at Auburn and Florida.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Arkansas Razorbacks (2014: 7-6 SU, 10-3 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +950
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Razorbacks: Brandon Allen is back at quarterback for his third season as a starter, the Razorbacks first three-year starter in over a decade. He threw for 2125 yards with 20 TDs and just five picks in 2014. He'll have plenty of help in the backfield with a pair of 1000 yard rushers in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins.
Why not to bet the Razorbacks: They haven't won in conference play on the road since October of 2012, and they have a tough schedule this season with road games against Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Tennessee Volunteers (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1100
Season win total: 7
Why to bet the Vols: Tennessee returns an SEC best 10 starters on offense in 2015, and eight starters on defense. Expectations are sky high in Knoxville after a blowout win over Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl. Josh Dobbs threw for 1206 yards and nine TDs in six starts last year, and he's expected to take over as the Vols quarterback of the future.
Why not to bet the Vols: It's important to keep things in perspective, and beating up on a below average BIG10 team in a bowl game is hardly enough reason to expect a young team to compete with the elite teams in the SEC.
Season win total pick: Over 7