SEC Conference College Football Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
Alabama Crimson Tide (2015: 14-1 SU, 8-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +150
Season win total: 10
Why to bet the Crimson Tide: After a two-year hiatus, Alabama won the FBS National Championship in 2016 which was its fourth title since 2009 and the Crimson Tide are loaded once again. The defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL but as is the case most years, Alabama does not rebuild its defense, it simply reloads. The Tide posted a winning ATS record last year for the first time since 2011-12 and being billed as the top team in the nation could lead to more winning tickets.
Why not to bet the Crimson Tide: When expectations are high, the linesmakers adjust accordingly and Alabama will be overvalued throughout the season. For a second straight season, the Tide has to replace their starting quarterback and for the first time in a decade, they will not have either of their top two running backs returning. The schedule is never easy in the SEC and for Alabama it is even more difficult with road games at LSU, Tennessee and Mississippi.
Season win total pick: Over 10
LSU Tigers (2015: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +350
Season win total: 10
Why to bet the Tigers: LSU had a rollercoaster season last year as it opened 7-0 but a loss at Alabama sent the Tigers into a tailspin and they finished just 9-3. There is only one way to go but up and motivation should be at its highest level this season. LSU returns 18 starters including 10 on defense and after covering half of their 12 games last season, the Tigers will be better overall. An 8-0 start before the Alabama game is a very good possibility.
Why not to bet the Tigers: The quarterback position is a big question mark for LSU as Brandon Harris has the starting job locked down but after completing just 54 percent of his passes last year, he needs to improve quite a bit. Opposing defenses will key on Leonard Fournette so Harris could see things open up. This is another case where expectations are so high (preseason top ten) that there may be no value on the Tigers, especially early in the season.
Season win total pick: Under 10
Tennessee Volunteers (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +450
Season win total: 9.5
Why to bet the Volunteers: This is the best Tennessee team in the Butch Davis era and while it is only his fourth season, the Volunteers have not been relevant since 2007 which was the last time they won the SEC East. They are the favorites to win it this year as they return 18 starters and are one of only two teams in the SEC with a true leader at quarterback, in the case of Tennessee, that is Joshua Dobbs. Tennessee has been average for so long, it may get overlooked in spots which can create value.
Why not to bet the Volunteers: Dobbs is the leader of the team but he has yet to develop into the true passing quarterback the Volunteers had hoped for. If he cannot improve, the one-dimensional offense could struggle. While the defense returns nine starters, Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator so there could be early transition issues. Playing in the relatively easy SEC East will have the Volunteers heavily favored in many of their games.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Auburn Tigers (2015: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Tigers: Last year was a disaster as Auburn went just 7-6 after coming with hopes to win the SEC. A near loss against Jacksonville St. in its second game set the tone and the Tigers dropped their first five games against the spread, finishing with just four covers in 13 games. That tends to reverse itself the following season so we should see Auburn cover more often than not. The offense was dreadful but will improve and the defense will be stronger as well.
Why not to bet the Tigers: Was last year just an aberration or was it a sign of where the program is heading? Auburn has produced fewer wins in each of the last two seasons and while that should change this year, playing in the brutal SEC West does not help matters. Three of the first four games are against Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU so a 1-3 start is more than possible and could send the Tigers reeling. The best bet could be to wait and see what happens in September before playing on this team.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Georgia Bulldogs (2015: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +850
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Bulldogs: It is not too often that a 10-win team shows their head coach the door but that was the case at Georgia as Mark Richt was let go and in comes former Alabama assistant Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs have won 10 games in four of the last five years so winning was not an issue but getting over the hump was. The winning will continue and Georgia should challenge Tennessee in the SEC East and once again be good enough to cash some tickets in the right spots.
Why not to bet the Bulldogs: The decision to let Richt go will be questioned early in the season with three of the first four games coming on the road and then the showdown with Tennessee at home. Starting quarterback Greyson Lambert is back but his job is far from 100 percent secure while the defense has a very inexperienced front seven. Change can be good but that may not be the case here as early growing pains with a whole new coaching staff could take place.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Mississippi Rebels (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Rebels: Mississippi has gotten better in each season under head coach Hugh Freeze and while it lost three first round picks to the NFL, the Rebels are loaded once again to make a run at Alabama in the SEC West. They possess the best quarterback in the conference in Chad Kelly, have enormous depth at wide receiver and the defense should again be stout. Mississippi has had a winning ATS record each of the last four years so why not continue that trend.
Why not to bet the Rebels: Mississippi is no longer going to be sneaking up on anyone and that includes the linesmakers which have been behind the curveball the last few years. With lofty expectations once again, more adjustments will be made so this is a team to tread lightly. The schedule is not easy with a neutral game against Florida St. to open the season and then the Rebels host Alabama two weeks later. Beating Alabama for a third straight year will be a daunting task.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Arkansas Razorbacks (2015: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1300
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Razorbacks: Arkansas has gotten better in each of the first three seasons under head coach Bret Bielema and there is more optimism in Fayetteville heading into this campaign. The offense needs to replace quarterback Brandon Allen but they already have a replacement in his younger brother Austin. Defensively, nine starters are back so this will be another bowl bound team. While it will not win the SEC West, the schedule sets up well with the toughest games taking place at home.
Why not to bet the Razorbacks: A new quarterback never helps but add to that a new running back and a revamped offensive line and that spells trouble for an offense that was very solid last year. While the majority of tough games are at home, that does not mean they are all winnable. The Razorbacks won three close games last season while also losing three close games so if this trend continues, betting Arkansas as a chalk will be a stressful experience.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Florida Gators (2015: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1300
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Gators: Head coach Jim McElwain brought new life into the Gators in his first season, leading them to a 10-win season and the SEC East title. While things may not be as smooth this season, there is still plenty for Florida to look forward to and should be able to challenge again in the SEC East. The defense will again be one of the best in the conference and the young offensive line is a year older. The Gators may still fly under the radar, giving bettors good opportunities for some wins.
Why not to bet the Gators: Like a lot of teams in the SEC, the Gators have to break in a new quarterback and they struggled last season after Will Grier was suspended. While the offensive line is a year older, they are still pretty raw and allowed the most sacks in the country. Florida ended the season on a three-game losing streak and that is not ideal heading into a new season. Of their five games away from home, they will be the underdog in four which all could result in losses.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Texas A&M Aggies (2015: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1500
Season win total: 6
Why to bet the Aggies: Because of all the offseason turmoil and the quarterback carousel over the last couple years, the pressure is on head coach Kevin Sumlin but the pieces are in place for what could turn out to be a surprisingly good season for the Aggies. They have a solid defense and one of the best receiving corps in the conference and if transfer quarterback Trevor Knight can come through, Texas A&M could pull off some upsets. A 1-7 ATS run to end last season should give the Aggies early value.
Why not to bet the Aggies: After going 11-2 in the first season under Sumlin, the Aggies have won 9, 8 and 8 games the last three years and looking at what they have, surpassing those win totals could be a challenge. The offense was not very good last year and if Knight is not the answer considering he was passed over at Oklahoma, there could be serious issues on that side of the ball. Texas A&M has covered only five games in each of the last three seasons which is not ideal for our betting purposes.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Missouri Tigers (2015: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season win total: 5.5
Why to bet the Tigers: Missouri was horrific on offense last season, averaging just 13.6 ppg which was 127th in the country so there is nowhere to go but up on that side of the ball. The defense allowed just 16.2 ppg, good for 5th in the nation and most of the pieces are back so it will be a stingy unit again. Barry Odom takes over as the head coach so a new face could bring good things. By covering only three games last season, the public will not be flocking to the Tigers which should present excellent value early on.
Why not to bet the Tigers: The offense was so bad that even a decent improvement may not be enough. The issue was the offensive line as it struggled all season despite being a veteran unit and now only one starter returns. That is a real problem for both the running and passing games.
Missouri won 12 and 11 games the previous two years so it was an epic fall to just five wins last season and there is nothing in place to show a big bounce back effort in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Kentucky Wildcats (2015: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Wildcats: Offensively, the Wildcats could make huge strides as they bring back nine starters, the most in the SEC, while leaning on new co-offensive coordinators Eddie Gran and Darin Hinshaw who came over from Cincinnati. Kentucky has gotten off to 5-1 and 4-1 starts the last two seasons so if it can sustain that in the second half behind the offense, the first bowl game under head coach Mark Stoops could be in order. Six of seven home games are very winnable.
Why not to bet the Wildcats: While the offense looks to get much better, there is very little optimism on the other side of the ball. The front seven returns only two starters and of the entire unit, only 6.5 sacks from players last season are back. The secondary is strong but teams should be able to have their way before reaching that level. Stoops was brought in to take the team to the next level and he has not been able to do so thus far and it will not be happening again this season.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Mississippi St. Bulldogs (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Bulldogs: Head coach Dan Mullin has done wonders at Mississippi St. as he has had only one losing season and the 19 wins over the last two years are the most wins in a two-year stretch in the history of the program. The Bulldogs were decent on defense last season and while they lost a lot of talent, there is enough in the hopper to be solid again. Mississippi St. has had three straight winning seasons against the number and those were with higher expectations.
Why not to bet the Bulldogs: The loss of quarteback Dak Prescott is the biggest of all SEC teams and there were some key departures. He was one of the best players in the history of the program so he cannot be replaced. Obviously the quarterback position will be the biggest to fill and while the defense brings back some big time talent, the Bulldogs will have their third different defensive coordinator in three years. Mississippi St. has just six home games and four extremely tough road games.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
South Carolina Gamecocks (2015: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Gamecocks: Things were getting pretty stale under the Ole Ball Coach so the hiring of head coach Will Muschamp should breathe some new life into a program that has underachieved the last two seasons. After winning 11 games for three straight years, South Carolina won only 10 games combined the last two. Expectations are very low this time around so we can expect South Carolina to be an underdog in at least nine of its 11 FBS games.
Why not to bet the Gamecocks: This is a huge rebuilding project for Muschamp who inherits little offense and does not have much depth on defense. He is a solid defensive coach but he very well could have a freshman starting at quarterback which could make for a very long season. Three of their first four games are on the road and all of those are SEC games. While they do avoid both Alabama and LSU, life in the SEC is never fun for a young team.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Vanderbilt Commodores (2015: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Commodores: Similar to Missouri, the Commodores offense was dreadful, averaging just 15.2 ppg which was 125th in the country so it can only improve. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur progressed nicely as a freshman and the offensive line that was ravaged with injuries will be much more solid. The defense kept them competitive, allowing 21 ppg which was 22nd in the nation and they will be a tight group again. Vanderbilt has the easiest schedule in the SEC heading into the season.
Why not to bet the Commodores: Vanderbilt has not recorded a double-digit win season since, well, never. While no one is expecting that to begin with, taking a big step up from four wins will still be difficult. The Commodores were competitive last season as three losses were by single digits but at the same time, only one of their four wins came by more than seven points and that came against Austin Peay of the FCS. This is a wait and see team for the first few weeks.
Season win total pick: Over 5