SEC Conference Preview

SEC East Outlook
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

1 - Florida: I have UF going 9-3 overall, 6-2 in SEC play. I have the same prediction for Georgia, with the Gators and Bulldogs taking one of their defeats in non-conference action at FSU and vs. North Carolina (at the Georgia Dome), respectively. I also have Tennessee going 9-3, but it will take all of its losses in succession and against SEC foes (at UGA, at Texas A&M and vs. Alabama). By virtue of a win over UGA in Jacksonville, that will give Florida a second straight SEC East title.

The Gators went 10-4 in Jim McElwain’s first season, but they lost three straight by double-digit margins to close the year. In short, the offense was an unmitigated disaster after Will Grier was suspended when UF was 6-0 going into a road game at LSU. UF has six starters back on each side of the ball. I was at The Swamp for the Orange & Blue Game in the spring, and it was evident that McElwain is going to have improved QB play in 2016. Luke Del Rio, the son of the Raiders’ coach who sat out last season after transferring from Oregon State, hit 10-of-11 throws for two TDs without an interception. Purdue grad transfer Austin Appleby will be an experienced back-up, providing the Gators with two signal callers that are major upgrades over Treon Harris, who elected to get a fresh start and transfer elsewhere on July 25. Grier, who couldn’t have played until Week 7 anyway, also transferred to West Virginia.

As usual, the defense is loaded with a pair of preseason All-Americans in junior CB Jalen Tabor and senior LB Jarrad Davis. Senior safety Marcus Maye was a second-team All-SEC selection last year when he produced 82 tackles, five forced fumbles and two interceptions. This prediction for UF is based on the presumed return of sophomore WR and special-teams ace Antonio Callaway, who has been on indefinite suspension since the spring. He is back in school and able to use the team’s facilities, but he’s yet to be fully reinstated. Callaway, who had 35 receptions for 678 yards and four TDs as a true freshman, could be looking at a suspension of a few games, but the Gators open at home vs. UMass, UK and North Texas. Callaway also had a TD pass and two punt returns for TDs in 2015.

Though it’s the furthest thing from a given (to say the least!), I think Tennessee finally gets a victory over UF at Neyland Stadium (AKA: Swamp North) in Week 4. However, I see the Gators responding with a four-game winning streak before losing at Arkansas. If Florida is getting quality QB play and FSU doesn’t get solid production from that position this year, the Gators can undoubtedly win at Doak Campbell Stadium in the regular-season finale. But for now, I’ll go with FSU in that spot.

2 - Georgia: The Kirby Smart Era has arrived. Will he act like a veteran head coach and slowly bring along true freshman QB Jacob Eason, or will he brazenly hand over the keys from the outset to the talented signal caller out of Washington (state)? I’ve opted – at least for now – to go with UNC over UGA in Week 1 due to the uncertainty of whom the Bulldogs will start at QB and the health of RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Chubb was averaging 8.1 YPC before suffering a serious knee injury at UT in early October. If he’s back to 100 percent, he’ll be one of the nation’s best backs again. If the Vols beat Florida, UGA will catch them in Athens in a vintage letdown spot after snapping an 11-game losing streak to their arch rival. I think UGA falls at Ole Miss in Week 4 and as previously mentioned, vs. Florida in Jacksonville.

3 - Tennessee: There’s no doubt the Vols are the Summer 2016 winners. UT had not won more than seven games since 2007 until going 9-4 last season. Butch Jones’s team brings back nine starters on offense and eight on defense. This fact leaves me somewhat confident that we won’t have to listen to all of Jones’s different statistical breakdowns of how inexperienced his first three teams were. These nonsensical rants often included percentages of how many players had never stepped foot on an airplane prior to certain road games. They were pathetic built-in excuses to forgive his team if it came up short (in games that weren’t even played yet!).

Anyway, you can look back at the ’15 version of UT in two different ways. On one hand, you can note that the Vols blew double-digit leads in three of four defeats. In the other loss, they led at Alabama, the eventual national champion, in the final two minutes. Using that train of thought, you could argue that Tennessee was very close to being a contender for a playoff berth. On the other hand, you could point at Jones’s horrible in-game coaching decisions and questionable play-calling at crunch time of the tight games as the reasons for those losses.

You could also note that UT’s November schedule is always weak (featuring games against Kentucky, Vandy and a cupcake non-conference foe), so was its strong finish an accurate indicator of great things on the horizon? UT won at Kentucky by a 52-21 score, but it slipped past the worst South Carolina team in a decade by just a 27-24 count in a home game in which the Gamecocks were in field-goal range in the final minute before coughing up a fumble. Then the Vols beat a North Texas team that went 1-11 by a 24-0 score at home. Next, they won 19-8 at Missouri, 53-28 vs. Vandy and 45-6 over Northwestern at the Outback Bowl. Five of those six teams had losing records, while Northwestern was a team that lost 38-0 at Michigan and 40-10 at home vs. Iowa.

The roster is loaded with talent, no doubt about it. Cam Sutton is a lockdown cornerback and one of the SEC’s best punt returners, Jalen Reeves-Maybin is one of the SEC’s best LBs, Derek Barnett is one of country’s top pass rushers, Evan Berry is probably the nation’s best kick returner and the offense features an outstanding combination of RBs in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. There’s also senior QB Josh Dobbs, who can beat you with his arm and legs. Dobbs had a 15/5 TD-INT ratio in 2015, in addition to 671 rushing yards and 11 TDs, not to mention a long TD catch at Florida.

I have so many questions about the head coach, though. Will he continue to use the “standard two-point chart” that was clearly written by a moron? Will he elect to kick a field goal on fourth and goal from the one-inch line on the opening drive of the game like he did vs. Oklahoma last season? Will he have a clue when to use a timeout on a last-minute drive when trying to get into field-goal range (think The Swamp last year)? Also, the four-game stretch of the schedule from late September through mid-October is brutal.

4 - Missouri: The remarkable tenure of Gary Pinkel is over. He won the SEC East twice in Missouri’s first three seasons in the league. However, the 2015 Tigers lost their starting QB to a suspension in late September, forcing them to go with a true freshman under center. The results were disastrous, as the Tigers averaged only 13.6 PPG for the season. It wasted a year when the defense was one of the best in the country, allowing only 16.2 PPG despite getting zero help from the other side of the ball. Missouri limped to a 5-7 finish, scoring nine points or fewer in six different games. The former DC Barry Odom takes over for Pinkel in his first head-coaching job. He has eight starters back on ‘D,’ in addition to the return of DT Harold Brantley, who missed all of ’15 with an injury but had 54 tackles and five sacks in ’14. The offense returns five starters and has question marks galore. I see the Tigers going 5-7 again this year.

5 - Kentucky: I have Kentucky going 5-7 for a third straight season. The Wildcats return nine starters on offense and five on defense. Drew Barker finally takes over as the starting QB as a third-year sophomore. He was the prize of Mark Stoops’s second recruiting class as a four-star prep signal caller. Barker replaces Patrick Towles, who transferred to Boston College after struggling in ’15. All of the top WRs are back and the ‘Cats have a solid 1-2 punch at RB with Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams (7.1 YPC) and Jojo Kemp (5.7 YPC), who combined to rush for 1,410 yards and 12 TDs last season. Phil Steele ranks UK’s o-line as the sixth-best in the SEC, so the offense should produce plenty of points if Barkley emerges as a quality SEC QB. The defense is another matter, however. This unit gave up 27.4 PPG last season and lost seven of its top eight tacklers. I have UK losing at home to Vandy and at Missouri, but those are certainly games it can win. If the ‘Cats win those, they’ll go bowling and Stoops will return. If not, I’m not sure Stoops will be given a fifth season.

6 - Vanderbilt: If Penn State and Vandy struggle this season, James Franklin and Derek Mason might both get fired. In that scenario, might we see Franklin back in Music City? Maybe, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Vandy went 4-8 last season despite getting great play from the defense. Mason fired his DC after Year 1 and took over those duties himself. That’s the best decision he’s made since leaving his Stanford DC post to replace Franklin, who guided the Commodores to three straight bowl games and a pair of nine-win seasons. But they’ve limped to a 7-17 mark on Mason’s watch. The defense lost its leading tackler (LB Nigel Bowden) in ’14 after just two games last year. Nevertheless, this unit allowed only 21.0 PPG. Vandy lost at home to Western Kentucky and at Florida by four combined points.

The Commodores return eight starters on offense and seven on defense. They get Bowden back along with WR C.J. Duncan, who missed all of ’15 after starting nine games in ’14. Duncan had 28 receptions for 441 yards and four TDs in ’14. Junior RB Ralph Webb has rushed for 2,064 yards the last two seasons and could become the school’s all-time leading rusher if he can produce 1,100 yards this year. The starting QB is going to be Kyle Shurmer, who started five games in ’15 as a true freshman. He completed only 44-of-103 passes (42.7%), but he had more TD passes (five) than interceptions (three). Vandy plays at Auburn and vs. Ole Miss in its games against the SEC West, and it has a pair of tough non-conference contests at Ga. Tech and at Western Ky. I have Vandy going 5-7 but if it can steal a win at Georgia Tech or at Missouri, it will return to the postseason and any dreams of Franklin’s return will probably be out the window.

7 - South Carolina: USC went 3-9 last season and returns only four starters on offense and five on defense. The Gamecocks lost their leading tackler from the last three seasons, LB Skai Moore, to season-ending neck surgery in June. I like the hire of Will Muschamp, an outstanding recruiter and one of the best defensive minds in the game (pro and college). I’m confident that by Year 3 Muschamp will have USC consistently winning 7-9 games per season, but it’s going to take time. The Gamecocks lost five one-possession games in ’15, so maybe the 3-9 record looks uglier than it really was.

True freshman QB Brandon McIlwain was a four-star recruit who had an excellent spring. He might start right away if he can beat out veteran Perry Orth, who was injured during spring drills. There are questions galore at nearly every position on the roster, but I could see this team being a tough out come late October. Muschamp assembled an excellent staff that will have this team playing hard. With that said, I think 6-6 and getting to a bowl game is this team’s ceiling. I’ll call it 4-8, but that’s with losses at Vandy, at Mississippi St. and at Kentucky, all of which are games the Gamecocks could potentially win.

SEC West Outlook
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

1 - Alabama: I think Nick Saban’s team goes 11-1 overall, 7-1 in SEC play. I have the loss coming at LSU. I usually don’t make bold predictions for teams with question marks at the QB position, but Saban and OC Lane Kiffin have proven in back-to-back years that that factor doesn’t apply to the Tide. Somehow Kiffin turned Blake Sims into an outstanding SEC QB (sure, Amari Cooper helped the cause) that led his team to the first College Football Playoff. Then in 2015, Jacob Coker was thriving by the start of November and played great in the win over Clemson in the CFP finals.

There are certainly a slew of challenging spots on Alabama’s schedule, including all four road games (at Ole Miss, at Arkansas, at Tennessee and at LSU). There’s also the opener vs. USC, but that game is at Jerry World (AKA: Bryant-Denny West) where ‘Bama has handed out beatdowns to the likes of Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan St. Whoever gets the nod at QB, he’ll have talent galore to throw to. Calvin Ridley might be the country’s best WR and he’s only a true sophomore. There’s also O.J. Howard, one of the best TEs in the nation, while WRs ArDarius Stewart and Ruben Foster are going to be NFL players, too. The defense loses Kirby Smart, but Jeremy Pruitt is the perfect replacement after helping FSU win the national title in 2013. Pruitt was at Alabama from 2007-2012. This unit will be led by Jonathan Allen (12.5 sacks), Tim Williams (10 sacks) and Eddie Jackson (6 INT’s). I have Alabama beating Florida at the SEC Championship Game.

2 - LSU: I have LSU going 10-2 overall, 6-2 in SEC play. The Tigers bring back eight starters on offense and nine on defense. Yet again, however, the QB position is one of concern (at least in my mind). Junior Brandon Harris is the clear-cut starter who completed 53.8 percent of his passes for 2,165 yards with a 13/6 TD-INT ratio last year. He had four rushing TDs. Harris has a great offensive line, a future Pro-Bowl RB in Leonard Fournette and two WRs (Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural) who are potential first-round picks. Les Miles made a great DC hire in snatching Dave Aranda away from Wisconsin. Aranda fielded great defenses for the Badgers (13.7 PPG LY) and he’ll be coaching much better talent in Baton Rouge. I have the Tigers losing at Florida and at Arkansas.

3 - Ole Miss: I think Ole Miss goes 9-3 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Rebels have the best QB in the league in Chad ‘Swag’ Kelly, who connected on 65.1 percent of his throws for 4,042 yards with a 31/13 TD-INT ratio. Kelly also rushed for 663 yards (before the negative yardage for sacks brought that number down to 500) and 10 TDs. Hugh Freeze’s program has spent the offseason immersed in turmoil, losing three players to the first round of the NFL Draft. On a night that should’ve been a celebration and tribute to the success of Freeze’s tenure turned into an indictment and conviction – at least in the court of public opinion – of the Rebels for (allegedly) taking short cuts on the recruiting trail like many of their rivals had suspected since his arrival. Nevertheless, probation (at least in the form of a bowl ban) has yet to arrive and a talented roster remains in Oxford.

I have Ole Miss losing vs. FSU (in Orlando), vs. Alabama and at LSU. Now the Rebels can certainly beat the Seminoles, but they could also lose games that I have them winning (at Arkansas and at Texas A&M). I only mention that (in what probably appears to be backtracking) because I’m not going to play Ole Miss ‘over’ for its win total because 9-3 could easily be 8-4 instead.

4 - Texas A&M: I have the Aggies going 9-3 overall and 5-3 in SEC action. I covered just about everything with Sumlin’s fifth team earlier.

5 - Arkansas: I think the Hogs finish 8-4 overall, 5-3 in league play. I’m not overly confident in this prediction simply because I haven’t seen enough of Austin Allen, the starting QB who is replacing his older brother. Speaking of Brandon Allen, a sixth-round pick by the Jaguars, what a two-year run he had for Bret Bielema’s teams by posting a 50/13 TD-INT ratio.

The Razorbacks return five starters on offense and nine on defense from last year’s team which finished 8-5. They lost three one-possession games in ’15, losing 16-12 at home to Toledo, in addition to a second straight overtime loss to Texas A&M in Arlington. They also dropped a 51-50 decision at home to Mississippi State on a night when Allen and Dak Prescott produced eye-opening performances. Arkansas loses workhorse RB Alex Collins, but there are several talented RBs ready to pick up the slack. The Hogs might have the most underrated set of WRs in the nation. Drew Morgan is off a breakout campaign, Dominique Reed came on strong late last year and Keon Hatcher is back from a season-ending injury.

When the Hogs host Ole Miss on Oct. 15, they’ll be playing their seventh game in seven weeks, while the Rebels will be off a bye with two weeks to prepare for a huge revenge game. Then the next week at home vs. Auburn, the Tigers will be off an open date. I have the Razorbacks losing at TCU, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Alabama and vs. Ole Miss. I have them finishing strong for a third straight season with five consecutive wins down the stretch, including home scalps of Florida and LSU.

6 - Mississippi State: The Dak Prescott Era is over and that’s a bad thing for Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs. It’s also why we saw Mullen trying to get the Miami job last December. I see MSU’s six-year streak of postseason appearances ending when it limps to a 5-7 record. The Bulldogs have won 19 games the last two seasons, but they return only five starters on offense and six on defense. If you’re going to venture West in non-conference play, it isn’t ideal to go play at altitude in Utah. Furthermore, if Mullen had his druthers, the Bulldogs wouldn’t travel to Provo to play BYU on a short week of preparation (Friday night) off a tough SEC game vs. Auburn. MSU will have its hands full with Taysom Hill, Jamaal Williams and Co. on Oct. 14.

7 - Auburn: We detailed what we believe will be a long season on The Plains.

Spartan's SEC East Preview
By Spartan

TENNESSEE: Well is this the year the Volunteers achieve and meet expectations. Sky seems to be the limit with many fans but I do see them winning the east. Tennessee needs to beat the teams expected and then step it up and win a huge game against a heavyweight. I remember last season I was on Oklahoma against them and worried sick, looked bleak. But the Sooner's got up off the deck and rallied for a big road win. That is the kind of thing this years Vol's need to avoid. What I see first and foremost is a defense that could be special. That defensive line is salty. Everybody talks year in and year out about Bama and their defense, with good reason I might add. But this year Tennessee has the chops to dig in and stuff anyone. Derek Barnett has all the potential to play on sundays. We all know it all starts up front in the trenches and the Vol's have it covered. On the offensive side of the ball they are in steady hands hopefully with Dobb's back for another year under center. He has a veteran line to work behind, something we a Mizzou are envious of. It comes down to Dobbs making the throws. From what I see and heat they should be pretty balanced on offense, easier to do with a line like they have this season. Dobbs has the weapons at his disposal, receivers are deep and the running game is in good hands with Jalen Hurd. The bottom line is I do believe this is the year Tennessee clears a hurdle and win the east. Barring some critical injuries everything seems to be in place. If they don't there will be considerable unrest in Knoxville. And with valid reasons. This team is built for success, all that remains is to get it done. I see a key battle for this Vol's club coming in early october when they travel to Athens to battle Georgia. That could be where the rubber meets the road. They get both the Gators and Tide at home which is a break. The time has arrived for Tennessee to prove they are not all hat and no cattle. I DO think they win the east guys. Do I think they knock off the west rep in the title game. No. I don't. But, a very, very good football team with tremendous upside. They look like a beautiful car all shined up and ready to roll, let's just hope they don't throw a rod.

GEORGIA: I admit, I like and respect Mark Richt. Not so sure letting him go was the right call but time will tell. Expectations are always high in Athens and now Kirby Smart gets his opportunity behind the wheel. We all know the running back situation with the injuries. I hear Chubb will be ready to roll in the opener. Hope so. Lambert is a capable guy and experienced but he needs the ground game badly. Most do. The Bulldogs have some new faces stepping in on the offensive line which is always a concern, oh brother can we relate here at Mizzou, but from all accounts studs abound and no real concerns. Time will tell. Biggest question going into the opener seems to be actually on the defensive side of the ball. Sounds kind of weird when talking about Georgia football. Lot of holes to be filled. Lot of question marks. Strength of that unit seems to be in the secondary once again and S Sanders seems to be the leader of that group. I'm told by one of my contacts he reminds him of former Mizzou stand out William Moore who has been a top flight NFL safety for a number of years. That's high praise. Here is the deal with the Bulldogs in my view. Anytime, regardless of how talented you have a new staff coming in there will be a time of adjustment. The talent IS there, nobody with half a football brain seems to be disputing that. Kirby Smart is a helluva football coach and he is a brilliant defensive mind. How he can transition to the top seat at the table remains to be seen. Some make that progression more smoothly than others. Being a DC is not the same thing as head coach. Frankly not even close. He has a high paying gig with the Tide and likely a job for life, I respect his taking on the challenge at Georgia of trying to shove this program over the hump. He didn't have to do this. The SEC east is just not nearly as strong as the west so he could make some noise his first year. I see them coming up just behind Tennessee but having a solid season. But he will have to be ready to advance on that, Richt can testify to that fact.

FLORIDA: I will be the first to admit the Gators surpassed my expectations last season. Good thing as the league is more fun when the Gators are relevant. Gators fans expect a lot. A friend of mine who used to coach at Mizzou was the DC there for a year and said it was quite the scene. He said the fans were amazing and the swamp was a fantastic home field advantage. I don't frankly though expect Florida to repeat this year. Somebody had to win the east last year and props to the Gators for getting it done but a juggernaut they were not, or will be this season. One thing I did like watching, a lot, last year was the defense. Much like Mizzou they were expected to carry just too much of the load. Get's frustrating for units to carry that load saturday after saturday. McElwain is a helluva motivator and head coach but he must get some offense going. I have some concerns under center and frankly as to who is going to be the featured back. If they have one. Be a big help if they got the Vol's in the swamp but the stubborn fact is they don't. I see a solid season upcoming but expectations in Florida far exceed solid. Bowl appearance but that just does not cut it in Gainesville. Sorry Gators but I see a third place finish in the east. Any sparks coming from the offense and with the D that could change. But I am not betting on it.

MISSOURI: Well if it could go wrong last season for the Tigers it did. They stormed into the SEC and captured a couple of division crowns but last season was a cluster, you know what. No other way to put it. It all came to a head when that idiot, professional protest expert duped the entire football team and they went to Pinkel with their demands. Pinkel handled the thing poorly and we all know the rest. I could elaborate much, much more on this whole deal but choose not to. Let's just leave it at that. Public perception and reality do not always coincide. Barry Odom steps in to take over the program and I can tell you this is not just a promotion for Odom. He loves the program. He played in it and built up a stellar defense as DC. Everybody last year could see how good this Tigers team was on the defensive end. Problem was the offense stunk at an epic level and the defense as as abused as a rented mule. It was sad to see. The offensive line, which figured to be a strength was a mess, a total mess. Many are concerned they are replacing so many parts. I rejoice in it. The QB situations was a mess last year as well. Maty started the year under center but had all kinds of off the field issues to Pinkle turned to young Drew Locke. It was painful to watch. The kid, who has the raw talent to play in the NFL, was thrust into playing behind a deplorable line and spent much of his freshman year scrambling for his life. The whole season was, well, a night mare. Now we have Odom trying to restore pride and order. I see from spring and the practices I have observed to date and much improved offense and another stout defense. In another league this Tigers team would be formidable. Tough to retool and rebuild in this league. Big test right out of the gate with West Virginia on the road. I can tell you the Tigers will be mentally sky high and prepared for that battle. If that is enough remains to be seen. Odds makers have tagged them as a double digit dog and that does not set well with them. Key will be down in the trenches. Given time Locke can do damage. All comes down to the offensive line.

KENTUCKY: The Wildcats were hoping for a bowl bid last year and it looked like it might happen. They suffered some tough losses to Vanderbilt, Auburn and Florida. They frankly had opportunities to win each of those games. So here we go again as the Cat's strain to reach the tape and make that bowl appearance. Once again, that is the tough thing about playing in the SEC. Place this team in most other conferences and they roll into a bowl The death march that is SEC football makes that a tough road to plow. Frankly as I look at the Cat's schedule for this fall I see another year of close but no cigar. I hope I am wrong. Kentucky fans deserve the shot to make that bowl trip. It's all about the hoops in Lexington and that makes it sweet for opposing teams to keep the football team down.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Turbulent season last year for the Game Cocks. Spurrier had his fill and said adios. They got the season off a rolling with a winner over rival North Carolina and things seemed to be on course. Oh how quickly things can and often do change. The defense really seemed to struggle, which kind of surprised me, Jon Hoke is a helluva DC, and the offense did much the same. Now here comes new head coach Will Muschamp and he will no doubt infuse some energy and intensity to this club, much needed apparently. I suspect fans will get used to seeing the fiery Muschamp bordering on going on full tilt more than once. Might be the most entertaining part of the whole deal. As far as schedules go they are not in bad shape at all. Can they take advantage? Well, that is another story altogether. I look at the schedule and I see five wins max. Will Muschamp lead them back to the level Spurrier had gotten them to, I personally am skeptical. Time will tell.

VANDERBILT: I do apologize if I have limited things to say about Vandy football this year. I don't rub salt in wounds as a rule. No, I do not have much in the way of expectations this fall. Much like Mizzou, the defense was a very, very formidable unit last year. Actually fun to watch that unit. Most the nation just did not realize how good that defense really was. Also, much like the Tigers, the offense stunk. Sometimes you just have to speak plainly. When they played Missouri last year it was weird, just weird. Both offenses were made to look totally inept. Kyle Shurmur has tools, he is a capable QB. I hear a lot about improvements but residing and being a born and bred Missouri guy, we go by the slogan we are the show me state. I've got to see it awhile first. By all accounts Webb is a special back that just needs a little help. Might be one of the better backs in the league but I'm not sure Barry Sanders could be am impact player behind that line Once again, I know I sound redundant, but if the offense can just step up it's game to help the defense this team could be salty. We shall see

Spartan's SEC West Preview
By Spartan

ALABAMA: Starting at the top. Many feel LSU might be ready to step up and take the big dog down. Could be. But they will have to show me. One of the biggest keys will be replacing those defensive lineman they lost. Well, the beauty of Bama is they truly reload. That is a phrase that gets worn out some but it is the gospel truth under Saban at Alabama. Allen is coming back and Dalvin Thompson gives all appearances of being NFL caliber. Gee, what a shock. I do not see all that much of a drop off a linebacker either. If you are not familiar with the name Shaun Dion Hamilton then get ready. All the physical tools and the football sense to go along. Smart, athletic will all the instincts to go along. The entire package. It's no state secret everyone is wanting to see how things play out under center. If the team has a legitimate question mark I suppose it's there and admittedly that is the last position you want question marks. But if any program can sustain it's success with these marks it's the Tide. It's going to be a brutal, yes, brutal task for Saban and his staff to retool and navigate this team to another league title. But they have the pedigree to do it. Not only the league, but the whole deal. Yes, I feel they can win the whole enchilada once again. Toughest competition will come from LSU in their own division. Stubborn fact is they return five starters from that wrecking crew last year and have plenty of young studs ready to accept larger roles. The schedule gets off to a big test right off the bat facing the Trojans from USC. No, the Trojans don't match up particularly well against the Tide but make no mistake about it, if Bama does not bring it's A game and Southern Cal does then they could get tripped up early on. We all know it's better to lose early than late but with the death march that is the SEC it could be a fatal blow. I don't see that happening though frankly. Jeremy Pruitt has some really big shoes to fill with Smart leaving for Athens and the Bulldogs. Lot of pressure there but as mentioned, he has the horses to run with. I look at the schedule and just shake my head. Daunting is not the word. I do feel badly for Kent on september 24th, that could be like clubbing baby seals. Subs or not. Ugly written all over it. I know I am being very flattering of this team but I am a realist. They are just a bad ass good football program. It is what it is. And with the way they keep recruiting expect more of the same until Cowherds prediction may finally come true some day and Saban gets bored and departs. When I think of Alabama one word keeps coming to mind. RESPECT.

LSU: Well Les Miles escaped the hangman's noose and is back where he belongs. On the sidelines at LSU. I have been a fan of Miles since his days at Oklahoma State. The man can flat out recruit and is also a better sideline coach than most will give him credit for. Many will take exception to that, I get it. Facts are indeed stubborn things and the fact is Miles has compiled a stellar record at LSU going 112-32. And he was on the hot seat. Kind of hard to get the brain around that but it shows the monster expectations these guys coach and live under. Mark Richt will testify to that. Miles has loads of talent coming back for him and on both sides of the ball. How many coaches would love to have Leonard Fournette in their back fields. Yes, I am including those guys who coach on sundays. There are many who are banging the drum making the case they are ready to unseat the Tide, maybe so. Very interesting opening week game for Miles club as they venture north to meet Wisconsin. Much like the Tide they could get tripped up if they don't come ready to rumble. You can bet your ass the Badgers will be ready and waiting. The Big 10 is sick and tired of all the SEC chatter and the Badgers would love nothing more than to shove the ball down the Tigers throats. But, as we all know, big difference between want to, and can do. The odds makers have the Badgers as heavy dogs to this team and with decent reason. There are no preseason games so that makes the question marks grow magnified. Pretty intriguing match up and I am looking forward to it. Oh, and the thing is taking place in Lambeau field in Green Bay. That only makes the Badgers just that much more full of piss and vinegar. I can see Miles club going 11-1 or maybe 10-2. They are that good. Yes, I have them pegged a notch below the Tide. Only because they are THAT good.

OLE MISS: The Rebels finished last season with a solid 10-3 mark overall and 6-2 in conference action. QB Chad Kelly can sometimes remind you of Jim but also can let his fiery temper interfere with his decision making. The kid is passionate and that is an understatement. Harness that and he will be something truly special. The tools are all in place. I'm telling you guys also, that beat down of Oklahoma State last season in the Sugar Bowl 48-20 was no accident. The Rebels are a legit power program. I know I keep saying that but it's simply a fact of life is the SEC west. One thing that is so often overlooked with the success of the truly heavyweight programs is having stability in the coaching ranks. No issue there in Oxford as seven of the nine coaches with Hugh Freeze were part of the head coach's original staff. My good friend, the late coach Larry Smith told me once the importance of this. Not easy thing to do. One hole to fill that young Kelly will have to contend with is the huge loss of his star wide out Laquon Treadwell. He has some skilled guys coming back though and his big senior tight end Evan Engram should get more touches this season. By all accounts he is another guy who could be playing on sundays. Just like Bama and LSU the Rebels are biting off a big chew in the opening weekend. They will be butting heads with the Seminoles of Florida State in a marquee match up. As I type this in the Rebels are a 6.5 to 7 point dog. Words cannot say what a huge win this would be for Freeze and his club. They get a cup cake the next game but next up stands Alabama and then Georgia. The rubber meets the road early for this club. They could vault into national prominence or see their season go off the rails early. That is a murderous stretch staring them down. This is a team that has won 19 games the past two seasons and that is rare air for this program. Actually the best since way back 1959 when yours truly was only a year old and kicking a ball around in the cradle. Yes, a long time back. Frankly I can see the Rebels taking a small step back this season. And that's too bad because this is a quality, deep and loaded club. But the schedule is sick early on. Besides what I mentioned already they also have road trips to Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M on the agenda. Good grief. Plus a late season trap game at Vandy who can play defense well enough to trip up about anyone. I like this team, I respect Freeze and his staff. Just a mountain to climb here. Mt Everest style.

ARKANSAS: Now we get to the Razorbacks. When Missouri departed the Big 12 the school was in a fix. Many, and I mean many if not all the fan base was not crazy about losing the rivalry with Kansas. Well, they have worked overtime trying to build up and cultivate a rivalry with our southern border neighbors Arkansas. Problem is there is just no hate there. You cannot manufacture a college rivalry. Those things are deep, deep rooted. As a youngster in central missouri you are taught to utter three words as a kid learning to speak. Mama, daddy and KU sucks. Okay, three words and a phrase. Anyway, the second half of the season last year the Hogs were a machine. A force to be reckoned with. That offensive line was a thing of beauty to behold. Big nasty, athletic guys with a mean streak who loved to pancake people. This kind of shapes up as a rebuilding year for the Hogs on offense. Three new hogs on the O line and a new QB, plus a group of guys to carry the package. On the defensive side they do bring back nine starters provide they get through camp healthy. This program has a disturbing habit of breaking slow from the gate and yes, that could be fatal against a pesky Louisiana Tech squad. Provided they escape that possible mess they have their key early battle looming next at TCU. That game could be looked at as a coin flip right now guys. But truthfully speaking, as schedules in this league go the Hogs have a favorable one. They get key games at home against Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida and LSU, They close out the regular season with road trips to Mississippi State and Missouri. I look for an improved defense this year but some regression on the offensive end. Man, it's so early and so hard to project a team like Arkansas. I can honestly see things going either north or south with this bunch. They will go bowling but as Missouri is learning it is just so damn hard to rebuild a program in the SEC and that is doubled down in the west. Very good football team. I suppose it just all comes down to expectations in Fayetteville. Once again, they really, really need to keep from stepping on their johnson's against Tech in the opener.

TEXAS A&M: Okay, now we venture on to Texas and College Station to take a look at the Aggie's. Kevin Sumlin is starting to feel a little heat. Goes with the territory coach. Just ask Charlie Strong over in Austin. Expectations are a bitch. A mean and twisted bitch. Once again I go back to my friend, the late coach Smith who told of of his experiences with much the same his his time at USC. Alumni can be a asset but also a heavy cross to bear. Sumlin needs a good season and a measuring stick comes up early with a talented UCLA club coming to get it on. That one game can set the tone for the Aggies. I personally think they get by the Bruins but it has all the potential there for a good game. His quality hiring of former Bruins OC Noel Mazzone could prove priceless in this match up. I'll be frank. I had some real issues with the Aggies defense last season and voiced them a lot on the forum. They could look so bad. I am hearing good things about the defense going into this season and hopefully its not all chatter. John Chavis is highly regarded with good reason. The athletes are in place. I expect a solid unit on the field this season. That is KEY! Trevor Knight is a stud quarterback and was a prized pick up for Sumlin. This program has leaned heavily on the offense under Sumlin and if the defense can carry their weight I can see this team climbing over the Hogs in my projection. Candidly I just don't see a world of difference as I type this up between the two. Knight does have a deep corps of guys to go to and there is no question Keith Ford is a top tier type running back. Provided they send the Bruins packing with a loss they have a big game in week three looming against Auburn down at their place. Both teams in similar positions. If they escape that one they have the Hogs coming to College Station next. So the temp will be set early for the Aggies. College Station is one of the toughest venues to travel and win at, home of the 12th man. Amazing fan base. One thing that flies under the radar but can be key is of course always the kicking game. Sumlin is having to break in a pair of kickers to step in and replace his all conference guys who departed, Kaser and Bertolet. Most fans overlook how critical the kicking game truly can be. Okay guys, just think back to your bets. How many times over the years have your bets come down to the leg of the kid you never gave much thought to? Uh huh, more times than we care to recall. This is a possible big question mark for the Aggies going into this season.

AUBURN: Does not seem that long ago does it that Gus Malzahn has the Tigers in the title game. Times can change quickly in college football. Gus is up against it guys. His Tigers were a pretty young club last season and had some obvious growing pains. Hopefully they will grow from that. Hard to fathom that this team only won a pair of games in league play last season. That is twilight zone type stuff for the folks down at Auburn. Jeremy Johnson crashed hard last year. What was weird about the whole damn thing is Gus is regarded as one of the sharpest offensive minds in the country. But the stubborn fact is his team averaged a very mediocre 22 points a game in conference action. Make no mistake about it, he has spent countless hours this off season trying to adjust that. As he should. I still have some concerns for the Tigers under center and that does not bode well considering they open up against mighty, yes, I said mighty, Clemson in the opener. A lot of great games to kick off and yes, I consider this one of them. Auburn will be taking the field with a monster chip on their shoulder. This is a very, very proud program and fan base. They will be wanting a piece of Clemson. And of course, they will get it. Sweeny's club and trade blows with anyone, anywhere. Bottom line is I trust Gus, hell, I trust his system, but if you don't have the guy under center to drive the car it is going to spit and sputter. Have to wait and see as well on defense. Third DC in as many years. In the end just too many question marks for me to reach much with this club. I see an overall .500 mark maybe and a bowl appearance. But not enough to satisfy most of the Tiger faithful. Gus could really be feeling some heat after this year. They close out the season at Bama and if the Tide clean their clocks things could get ugly down there.

MISSISSIPPI STATE: I like Dan Mullen, a lot. He is a very sound football mind and coach. Unfortunately someone has to bring up the rear in this killer league and his Bulldogs get my vote. Best last place club in the country. Mullen has managed to navigate his Bulldogs to six straight bowl games. But losing Dak Prescott is just a monster challenge. The kid was a play maker AND leader on the field AND locker room. He was the whole package. That is what I totally respected about Chase Daniel when he was at Mizzou. He got more out of his talent than any QB I'd seen come though. If Chase Daniel had the physical tools of former Tigers QB Blaine Gabbert he would be well on his way to a hall of fame career. He was that smart and tough. The team rallied behind his leadership. On the flip side if Gabbert had Chase's mental make up the same could be the same for him. But, I apologize, this is about the Bulldogs. I think as this league goes the schedule is favorable for Mullen and his club. The last three games that include road games at Bama and Ole Miss combined with a game against Arkansas could spell the difference between going bowling and staying at home. Just too many question marks replacing Prescott for me. Another club dealing with their third straight year with a new DC, makes it tough. Remember what I said about coaching stability. It does count guys. All part of the package that goes into long term success.

SEC Conference College Football Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com

Alabama Crimson Tide (2015: 14-1 SU, 8-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +150

Season win total: 10

Why to bet the Crimson Tide: After a two-year hiatus, Alabama won the FBS National Championship in 2016 which was its fourth title since 2009 and the Crimson Tide are loaded once again. The defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL but as is the case most years, Alabama does not rebuild its defense, it simply reloads. The Tide posted a winning ATS record last year for the first time since 2011-12 and being billed as the top team in the nation could lead to more winning tickets.

Why not to bet the Crimson Tide: When expectations are high, the linesmakers adjust accordingly and Alabama will be overvalued throughout the season. For a second straight season, the Tide has to replace their starting quarterback and for the first time in a decade, they will not have either of their top two running backs returning. The schedule is never easy in the SEC and for Alabama it is even more difficult with road games at LSU, Tennessee and Mississippi.

Season win total pick: Over 10

LSU Tigers (2015: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +350

Season win total: 10

Why to bet the Tigers: LSU had a rollercoaster season last year as it opened 7-0 but a loss at Alabama sent the Tigers into a tailspin and they finished just 9-3. There is only one way to go but up and motivation should be at its highest level this season. LSU returns 18 starters including 10 on defense and after covering half of their 12 games last season, the Tigers will be better overall. An 8-0 start before the Alabama game is a very good possibility.

Why not to bet the Tigers: The quarterback position is a big question mark for LSU as Brandon Harris has the starting job locked down but after completing just 54 percent of his passes last year, he needs to improve quite a bit. Opposing defenses will key on Leonard Fournette so Harris could see things open up. This is another case where expectations are so high (preseason top ten) that there may be no value on the Tigers, especially early in the season.

Season win total pick: Under 10

Tennessee Volunteers (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +450

Season win total: 9.5

Why to bet the Volunteers: This is the best Tennessee team in the Butch Davis era and while it is only his fourth season, the Volunteers have not been relevant since 2007 which was the last time they won the SEC East. They are the favorites to win it this year as they return 18 starters and are one of only two teams in the SEC with a true leader at quarterback, in the case of Tennessee, that is Joshua Dobbs. Tennessee has been average for so long, it may get overlooked in spots which can create value.

Why not to bet the Volunteers: Dobbs is the leader of the team but he has yet to develop into the true passing quarterback the Volunteers had hoped for. If he cannot improve, the one-dimensional offense could struggle. While the defense returns nine starters, Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator so there could be early transition issues. Playing in the relatively easy SEC East will have the Volunteers heavily favored in many of their games.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5

Auburn Tigers (2015: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +800

Season win total: 6.5

Why to bet the Tigers: Last year was a disaster as Auburn went just 7-6 after coming with hopes to win the SEC. A near loss against Jacksonville St. in its second game set the tone and the Tigers dropped their first five games against the spread, finishing with just four covers in 13 games. That tends to reverse itself the following season so we should see Auburn cover more often than not. The offense was dreadful but will improve and the defense will be stronger as well.

Why not to bet the Tigers: Was last year just an aberration or was it a sign of where the program is heading? Auburn has produced fewer wins in each of the last two seasons and while that should change this year, playing in the brutal SEC West does not help matters. Three of the first four games are against Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU so a 1-3 start is more than possible and could send the Tigers reeling. The best bet could be to wait and see what happens in September before playing on this team.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5

Georgia Bulldogs (2015: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +850

Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Bulldogs: It is not too often that a 10-win team shows their head coach the door but that was the case at Georgia as Mark Richt was let go and in comes former Alabama assistant Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs have won 10 games in four of the last five years so winning was not an issue but getting over the hump was. The winning will continue and Georgia should challenge Tennessee in the SEC East and once again be good enough to cash some tickets in the right spots.

Why not to bet the Bulldogs: The decision to let Richt go will be questioned early in the season with three of the first four games coming on the road and then the showdown with Tennessee at home. Starting quarterback Greyson Lambert is back but his job is far from 100 percent secure while the defense has a very inexperienced front seven. Change can be good but that may not be the case here as early growing pains with a whole new coaching staff could take place.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Mississippi Rebels (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1000

Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Rebels: Mississippi has gotten better in each season under head coach Hugh Freeze and while it lost three first round picks to the NFL, the Rebels are loaded once again to make a run at Alabama in the SEC West. They possess the best quarterback in the conference in Chad Kelly, have enormous depth at wide receiver and the defense should again be stout. Mississippi has had a winning ATS record each of the last four years so why not continue that trend.

Why not to bet the Rebels: Mississippi is no longer going to be sneaking up on anyone and that includes the linesmakers which have been behind the curveball the last few years. With lofty expectations once again, more adjustments will be made so this is a team to tread lightly. The schedule is not easy with a neutral game against Florida St. to open the season and then the Rebels host Alabama two weeks later. Beating Alabama for a third straight year will be a daunting task.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Arkansas Razorbacks (2015: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1300

Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Razorbacks: Arkansas has gotten better in each of the first three seasons under head coach Bret Bielema and there is more optimism in Fayetteville heading into this campaign. The offense needs to replace quarterback Brandon Allen but they already have a replacement in his younger brother Austin. Defensively, nine starters are back so this will be another bowl bound team. While it will not win the SEC West, the schedule sets up well with the toughest games taking place at home.

Why not to bet the Razorbacks: A new quarterback never helps but add to that a new running back and a revamped offensive line and that spells trouble for an offense that was very solid last year. While the majority of tough games are at home, that does not mean they are all winnable. The Razorbacks won three close games last season while also losing three close games so if this trend continues, betting Arkansas as a chalk will be a stressful experience.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Florida Gators (2015: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1300

Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Gators: Head coach Jim McElwain brought new life into the Gators in his first season, leading them to a 10-win season and the SEC East title. While things may not be as smooth this season, there is still plenty for Florida to look forward to and should be able to challenge again in the SEC East. The defense will again be one of the best in the conference and the young offensive line is a year older. The Gators may still fly under the radar, giving bettors good opportunities for some wins.

Why not to bet the Gators: Like a lot of teams in the SEC, the Gators have to break in a new quarterback and they struggled last season after Will Grier was suspended. While the offensive line is a year older, they are still pretty raw and allowed the most sacks in the country. Florida ended the season on a three-game losing streak and that is not ideal heading into a new season. Of their five games away from home, they will be the underdog in four which all could result in losses.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Texas A&M Aggies (2015: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1500

Season win total: 6

Why to bet the Aggies: Because of all the offseason turmoil and the quarterback carousel over the last couple years, the pressure is on head coach Kevin Sumlin but the pieces are in place for what could turn out to be a surprisingly good season for the Aggies. They have a solid defense and one of the best receiving corps in the conference and if transfer quarterback Trevor Knight can come through, Texas A&M could pull off some upsets. A 1-7 ATS run to end last season should give the Aggies early value.

Why not to bet the Aggies: After going 11-2 in the first season under Sumlin, the Aggies have won 9, 8 and 8 games the last three years and looking at what they have, surpassing those win totals could be a challenge. The offense was not very good last year and if Knight is not the answer considering he was passed over at Oklahoma, there could be serious issues on that side of the ball. Texas A&M has covered only five games in each of the last three seasons which is not ideal for our betting purposes.

Season win total pick: Over 6

Missouri Tigers (2015: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2000

Season win total: 5.5

Why to bet the Tigers: Missouri was horrific on offense last season, averaging just 13.6 ppg which was 127th in the country so there is nowhere to go but up on that side of the ball. The defense allowed just 16.2 ppg, good for 5th in the nation and most of the pieces are back so it will be a stingy unit again. Barry Odom takes over as the head coach so a new face could bring good things. By covering only three games last season, the public will not be flocking to the Tigers which should present excellent value early on.

Why not to bet the Tigers: The offense was so bad that even a decent improvement may not be enough. The issue was the offensive line as it struggled all season despite being a veteran unit and now only one starter returns. That is a real problem for both the running and passing games.
Missouri won 12 and 11 games the previous two years so it was an epic fall to just five wins last season and there is nothing in place to show a big bounce back effort in 2016.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Kentucky Wildcats (2015: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3500

Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Wildcats: Offensively, the Wildcats could make huge strides as they bring back nine starters, the most in the SEC, while leaning on new co-offensive coordinators Eddie Gran and Darin Hinshaw who came over from Cincinnati. Kentucky has gotten off to 5-1 and 4-1 starts the last two seasons so if it can sustain that in the second half behind the offense, the first bowl game under head coach Mark Stoops could be in order. Six of seven home games are very winnable.

Why not to bet the Wildcats: While the offense looks to get much better, there is very little optimism on the other side of the ball. The front seven returns only two starters and of the entire unit, only 6.5 sacks from players last season are back. The secondary is strong but teams should be able to have their way before reaching that level. Stoops was brought in to take the team to the next level and he has not been able to do so thus far and it will not be happening again this season.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Mississippi St. Bulldogs (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3500

Season win total: 6.5

Why to bet the Bulldogs: Head coach Dan Mullin has done wonders at Mississippi St. as he has had only one losing season and the 19 wins over the last two years are the most wins in a two-year stretch in the history of the program. The Bulldogs were decent on defense last season and while they lost a lot of talent, there is enough in the hopper to be solid again. Mississippi St. has had three straight winning seasons against the number and those were with higher expectations.

Why not to bet the Bulldogs: The loss of quarteback Dak Prescott is the biggest of all SEC teams and there were some key departures. He was one of the best players in the history of the program so he cannot be replaced. Obviously the quarterback position will be the biggest to fill and while the defense brings back some big time talent, the Bulldogs will have their third different defensive coordinator in three years. Mississippi St. has just six home games and four extremely tough road games.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5

South Carolina Gamecocks (2015: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +7500

Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Gamecocks: Things were getting pretty stale under the Ole Ball Coach so the hiring of head coach Will Muschamp should breathe some new life into a program that has underachieved the last two seasons. After winning 11 games for three straight years, South Carolina won only 10 games combined the last two. Expectations are very low this time around so we can expect South Carolina to be an underdog in at least nine of its 11 FBS games.

Why not to bet the Gamecocks: This is a huge rebuilding project for Muschamp who inherits little offense and does not have much depth on defense. He is a solid defensive coach but he very well could have a freshman starting at quarterback which could make for a very long season. Three of their first four games are on the road and all of those are SEC games. While they do avoid both Alabama and LSU, life in the SEC is never fun for a young team.

Season win total pick: Under 5

Vanderbilt Commodores (2015: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +7500

Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Commodores: Similar to Missouri, the Commodores offense was dreadful, averaging just 15.2 ppg which was 125th in the country so it can only improve. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur progressed nicely as a freshman and the offensive line that was ravaged with injuries will be much more solid. The defense kept them competitive, allowing 21 ppg which was 22nd in the nation and they will be a tight group again. Vanderbilt has the easiest schedule in the SEC heading into the season.

Why not to bet the Commodores: Vanderbilt has not recorded a double-digit win season since, well, never. While no one is expecting that to begin with, taking a big step up from four wins will still be difficult. The Commodores were competitive last season as three losses were by single digits but at the same time, only one of their four wins came by more than seven points and that came against Austin Peay of the FCS. This is a wait and see team for the first few weeks.

Season win total pick: Over 5