NCAAF SEC Notes
By Brian Edwards
The SEC Championship Game is all set with Alabama and Florida poised to collide in perhaps the most anticipated matchup in the annals of league history. When I spoke with Kenny White, the Chief Operating Officer at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, earlier this week, he told me that if there are no major injuries between now and Dec. 6, “we’re thinking Florida minus seven.”
At Sportsbook.com in its “Game of the Year” section, ‘Bama is currently listed as a 14-point home ‘chalk’ for next week’s Iron Bowl against Auburn. Likewise, the Gators are 14-point road favorites at FSU.
Let’s take a look at this week’s SEC contests.
**Tennessee at Vanderbilt**
--Vanderbilt (6-4 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) clinched its first trip to a bowl game since 1982 with last week’s 31-24 win at Kentucky as a 3 ½-point favorite. D.J. Moore had a monster night for the Commodores, who hooked up money-line backers with a plus-140 payout (risk $100 to win $140). Moore caught two touchdown passes from Chris Nickson and also intercepted two passes playing on both sides of the ball.
--Nickson was sensational at UK, completing 15-of-27 passes for 155 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also rushed for 118 yards, while Jared Hawkins also produced 84 yards and one touchdown on the ground. Nickson now has an 8/2 touchdown-interception ratio for the season. He also has a 16-15 record in 31 career starts at Vandy.
--Tennessee (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) is coming off one of the most embarrassing losses in school history, a 13-7 home loss to Wyoming as a 27-point home favorite. Jonathan Crompton and Nick Stephens were horrible at the quarterback position, combining to complete just 14-of-36 throws for 118 yards, one TD and two interceptions, including a pick-six.
--With Crompton and Stephens playing like scrubs all season long, lame-duck coach Phillip Fulmer will turn to redshirt freshman B.J. Coleman as this week’s starter. Coleman has never taken a meaningful snap in a UT uniform – until Saturday, that is.
--Dating back to 1975, Vandy has only been favored over Tennessee twice. In 1982, the ‘Dores beat UT 28-21 as three-point home favorites. However, in 1984, the Vols won 29-13 as 2 ½-point road underdogs.
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Vandy as a 3 ½-point favorite this week. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most spots had the Commodores favored by three with a total of 37 1/2. Bettors can back UT to win outright for a plus-135 return (risk $100 to win $135).
--The Vols have won 24 of the last 25 games in this series, but Vandy is 3-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings. UT captured a 25-24 win last season as a 12-point home favorite, but the Vols needed the ‘Dores to miss a last-second field goal to preserve the outright win and go on to eventually win the SEC East.
--The ‘under’ has cashed in nine straight games for Tennessee. In fact, the Vols have only seen one ‘over’ this season and that’s only because their loss to UCLA went to overtime.
--The ‘under’ is 9-3-1 in Vandy’s last 13 home games.
--Raycom Sports will provide television coverage at 12:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Arkansas at Mississippi State**
--LVSC opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 42 ½. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most spots had the Razorbacks marked as one-point favorites.
--Arkansas (4-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) had an open date this past weekend after dropping a 34-21 decision at South Carolina as a 12 ½-point underdog. Despite the non-cover by just one-half point, Bobby Petrino’s team has covered the number in four of its last five games.
--Mississippi State (3-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) has lost three of its last four games and four in a row ATS. The Bulldogs are off a 32-7 loss at Alabama as 21-point underdogs. They also lost one of their best defensive players, senior DT Jessie Bowman, to a quad injury that will keep him out for the rest of the season. All-SEC safety Derek Pegues suffered a concussion against the Crimson Tide, but he is expected to play this week.
--Sylvester Croom’s team is 2-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home, while Arkansas is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road.
--Arkansas can still go to a bowl game if it wins this week and against LSU next Friday in Little Rock.
--The ‘under’ has cashed in four of MSU’s last five games.
--The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the Hogs’ four road outings, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 for the Bulldogs at home.
**Ole Miss at LSU**
--LVSC opened LSU (7-3 SU, 2-7 ATS) as a seven-point favorite, but the Tigers were just four-point ‘chalk’ at most spots Wednesday. The Rebels are plus-145 on the money line. LVSC sent the total out at 54.
--Ole Miss (6-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) is headed to a bowl game for the first time since 2003 in Houston Nutt’s first year in Oxford. The Rebels got bowl eligible by virtue of last week’s 59-0 clubbing of ULM. They easily took the money as 24-point home favorites.
--Jevan Snead threw for three touchdowns without an interception last week. Cordera Eason ran for 106 yards and one TD against the Warhawks.
--As this space suggested last week in Bonus Nuggets, LSU got all it wanted from Troy last week. In fact, the Tigers avoided a colossal disaster only by rallying for the biggest comeback in school history. They trailed the Trojans 31-3 midway through the third quarter before scoring 37 unanswered points to capture a 40-31 triumph. Nevertheless, Troy backers still cashed tickets catching 16 points.
--LSU’s Charles Scott rushed for 90 yards and a TD against the Trojans, while Brandon LaFell had a career night with 12 receptions for 126 yards and one TD.
--As a home favorite during Les Miles’ four-year tenure, LSU has been atrocious for our purposes. The Tigers are 8-16 ATS in such spots. They are 0-6 ATS at home this season.
--Ole Miss owns a 3-0 spread record as a road underdog this year.
--The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for LSU, 6-2 in its last eight games. Meanwhile, the ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Rebels, 2-2 in their road games.
--Kick-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
vegasinsider.com.