SEC Schedule Breakdown
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
When looking at season win totals and odds to win a conference, team’s schedules are nearly as important to analyze as returning starters and quarterback play. Certain ‘spots’ can set up with more difficulty. For example, playing a second road game in as many weeks or a third in four weeks isn’t favorable, especially if the opponent hasn’t had to travel in recent weeks.
In most instances, coming off a bye week is advantageous. This gives coaches extra time to prepare, while players can heal up from the bumps, bruises and sprains that are a part of the weekly grind. The two weeks off can also lead coaches (or ADs) to make important decisions.
With an off date looming after a 28-14 home loss to Georgia left South Carolina with a 2-4 record last season, first-year head coach Will Muschamp decided to take the redshirt off of Jake Bentley and insert the true freshman (who actually had left high school a year early and should’ve been playing on Friday nights) quarterback into the starting lineup. This decision was the best Muschamp has made in years, as Bentley thrived and led the Gamecocks to a 4-2 record and subsequent postseason invite in the last six regular-season contests.
In SEC play, each school must play two foes from the opposite division. One is an annual rival (LSU-UF, AU-UGA, ‘Bama-UT), while the other blends in and out for two years at a time. If you’re in the West, history tells us you’d rather face Vanderbilt, Kentucky or Missouri rather than UF or UGA.
With that in mind, let’s break down the schedules of SEC teams.
Alabama: The non-conference slate includes a huge showdown with FSU at the new Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta for the season opener. Then the Crimson Tide will host Fresno State and Colorado State from out of the Mountain West Conference before welcoming Mercer to Bryant-Denny Stadium later in the season. There are four true road assignments, at Vanderbilt, at Texas A&M, at Mississippi State and at Auburn, but Nick Saban’s bunch won’t have to travel on back-to-back weekends all year long. ‘Bama gets its open date before hosting LSU, but the Tigers also have that week off to make it a wash. Only one team (Ole Miss before its trip to Tuscaloosa on Sept. 30) gets two weeks to prepare for the Tide besides LSU.
ATS Note: Alabama is 23-13 versus the number as a road favorite since 2008.
Auburn: Gus Malzahn’s squad faces the defending national champs on the road in a Week 2 trip to Death Valley. The other non-conference contests include home games vs. Georgia Southern, Mercer and ULM. The Tigers have four SEC road games, in addition to the trip to Clemson. They play at Missouri, at LSU, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M. AU goes to Baton Rouge and Fayetteville in consecutive weeks on Oct. 14 and 21. Then when Malzahn’s bunch comes off its bye week (10/28), it ventures to College Station to take on the Aggies. When AU hosts Ole Miss, the Rebels will be traveling for a second straight weekend after playing at Alabama. The spot for a home game vs. Mississippi State sets up nicely as well since the Bulldogs play at Georgia the previous week. Auburn’s SEC East games are at Missouri and vs. UGA. The positive in having the Iron Bowl as the regular-season finale is that if Alabama is undefeated in league play, the Tigers will still be alive to win the West if they have only one SEC loss in their first seven conference games.
ATS Note: Auburn has limped to an 8-17 ATS mark in its last 25 games as a road underdog dating back to ’08.
LSU: As noted above, LSU and Alabama share an open date before their annual showdown that falls on Nov. 4 of this year. The Tigers draw the worst options of any West school with their SEC East opponents. They have to go on the road twice, at Florida and at Tennessee, which gives them five conference road trips compared to three SEC home games (more on this below in UF’s slate). LSU only stays home for back-to-back weeks ONCE the entire season (for Syracuse and Troy). The other non-conference contests are in Week 1 and 2 vs. BYU (in Houston) and Chattanooga, respectively. The Cougars have thrived in season openers recently, winning at UConn (35-10), at Nebraska (33-28) and at Arizona (18-16) the last three years.
ATS Note: LSU is 11-6-1 ATS in its last 18 games as home ‘chalk.’
Arkansas: Week 3 certainly isn’t the ideal time to have your open date, but at least Arkansas has two weeks to get ready for the crucial trip to Arlington to face Texas A&M. All four non-conference games are at home vs. Florida A&M, TCU, New Mexico State and Coastal Carolina. The Hogs draw at South Carolina and vs. Missouri in the regular-season finale for their games versus the East. That’s six winnable games in non-con play and vs. the East. In addition to the awkward-and-way-too-soon bye week, there are other negatives to this schedule for Bret Bielema’s team. Since the A&M game is always at Jerry World, both schools alternate having an extra road or home game each season. This is the Hogs’ year for the extra road assignment. In fact, they don’t even play their second SEC home game until Nov. 18 vs. Mississippi St. Arkansas has one set of back-to-back road games at South Carolina (10/7) and at Alabama (10/14).
ATS Note: Arkansas owns a stellar 7-1 spread record in its last eight games as a road underdog.
Texas A&M: As noted in regards to the Arkansas game, Texas A&M plays only three SEC road games: at Florida, at Ole Miss and at LSU. However, the Aggies start the season on the road at UCLA. The Bruins will be out to avenge an overtime loss in College Station last season. Keep an eye on the Oct. 21 open date that comes after two games (vs. Alabama and at Florida) when A&M will most likely be a decided underdog. If those games result in two defeats, Kevin Sumlin better hope he wins at UCLA and vs. Arkansas. If not, A&M might make a move on its coach to get out ahead of the Chip Kelly Sweepstakes. After the open date, the Aggies host Mississippi St. The draw from the East is South Carolina at home and at UF.
ATS Note: Texas A&M has been horrible versus the number since the start of the 2013 campaign, going 17-33-2 ATS.
Ole Miss: The Rebels play at California in Week 3 and gets its three other non-conference tilts at home versus South Alabama, UT-Martin and Louisiana. The Rebels get Vanderbilt at home and play at Kentucky in their games against the East. They get their open date in Week 4 after flying to Berkeley and one week ahead of a trip to Tuscaloosa. After facing the Crimson Tide, Hugh Freeze’s team plays at Auburn the following weekend. The Egg Bowl is on Thanksgiving Day, putting the Rebels on the road on a short week against their arch rival.
ATS Note: The Rebels are 13-8 ATS in 21 games as underdogs on Freeze’s watch. They’re 7-3 ATS as road ‘dogs.
Mississippi State: The Bulldogs have two tough non-conference games, including a Week 2 trip to Ruston to face Louisiana Tech. BYU comes to Starkville after rallying past the Bulldogs in overtime in Provo on a short week last year. Dan Mullen’s bunch gets an open date before hosting the Cougars and Tanner Mangum. The draw from the East is UK at home and at UGA. After going to Athens, the Bulldogs have to play at Auburn the following week.
ATS Note: Since 2013, Mississippi State has cashed tickets at a 9-3 ATS clip in 12 games as a road underdog.
Florida: Thanks to the ineptitude of LSU Athletics Director Joe Alleva, UF has to only play three SEC road games in 2017 since Alleva forced the Gators to come to Baton Rouge last year after the threat of a massive hurricane forced the cancellation of the original date the teams were going to play in Gainesville. As it worked out, an epic goal-line stand allowed UF to clinch the SEC East on LSU’s home field, and now the Tigers have to come to The Swamp in ’17 and ’18. UF’s non-conference games include an opener against Michigan at Jerry World in Arlington, in addition to a regular-season finale at home vs. Florida State. The other game against the West will be Texas A&M’s first trip to Gainesville since joining the conference. Like LSU-Alabama, Florida and Georgia both have an open date before facing each other in Jacksonville. The Gators will probably be favored in all three of their road assignments at Kentucky, at Missouri and at South Carolina. The trips to Mizzou and USC do come in back-to-back weeks, but UF only travels once (at UK) from Week 2 to Week 8. The Gators face two teams (Texas A&M and Vandy) the week after those foes play Alabama.
ATS Note: Granted, it’s a neutral game against Michigan. Nevertheless, we’ll note that UF hasn’t played anywhere except Gainesville for an opener since 1987. I was at The Orange Bowl that day and the heat was absolutely stifling. Emmitt Smith made his freshman debut against the Hurricanes, who would’ve dealt the Gators cream-cheese treatment if their long snapper on punts hadn’t accounted for a pair of safeties in UM’s 31-4 win. Speaking of blowouts, UF will be looking to avenge the 41-7 assbeating it took from Michigan at the Citrus Bowl two seasons ago.
Georgia: With the exception of a Week 3 home game against Samford, the non-conference schedule is no joke. Appalachian State should’ve won last year’s opener at Tennessee that went to overtime. If not for a missed extra point and fourth-quarter field goal by Appalachian State, the Volunteers wouldn’t have been fortunate enough to see the extra session. Well, the Mountaineers open between the hedges in Athens this season, and they’ll bring with them 14 starters from last year’s 10-3 team that lost only to Troy (10-3), UT (9-4) and Miami (9-4). After that tricky lid-lifter, UGA will venture to South Bend to take on Notre Dame. Another road game in non-con play is at Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale. The games versus the SEC West are at home against Mississippi State and at Auburn. If there’s a letdown spot on the schedule, watch out for the Oct. 7 trip to Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs play a crucial SEC East game against Tennessee the week before.
ATS Note: UGA is 0-4 ATS with a pair of outright losses in the last four meetings with Vandy. The Bulldogs will be out for revenge in Nashville after dropping a 17-16 decision to the Commodores last season.
Tennessee: The non-conference schedule starts with the opener against Georgia Tech in Atlanta. However, the game isn’t on The Flats at Bobby Dodd Stadium. These teams will meet in the new Mercedes-Benz Dome on Monday night. The three other non-conference games are at home versus Indiana State, UMass and Southern Miss. Butch Jones’s squad gets its open date Oct. 7 after hosting Georgia and before playing South Carolina at home with the revenge angle. When UT plays at Kentucky on Oct. 28, it will be travelling for a second straight weekend after going to Alabama the prior week. The draw from the West is the worst of SEC East teams, as the Vols go to ‘Bama and host LSU on Nov. 18.
ATS Note: UT has lost 12 consecutive games to SEC West foes while limping to a 2-9-1 spread record. Jones is 0-10 SU and 2-7-1 ATS versus the West.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks have a tough non-conference schedule. They open against North Carolina State, which most books have favored by six points, in Charlotte. They close the regular season at home vs. Clemson. Also, South Carolina will face a tough test in Week 4 at home vs. Louisiana Tech. As noted above, UT has two weeks to prep for Muschamp’s team. USC will have its bye week before hosting Vandy. Both games against the SEC West are potential wins – at Texas A&M and vs. Arkansas in consecutive weeks. The only time USC travels two weeks in a row is when it goes to Missouri in Week 2
ATS Note: As a head coach, Muschamp is 5-0 against Tennessee with a 4-1 spread record. The lone non-cover came in a 31-17 win over UT as a 16.5-point home ‘chalk’ when UF starting QB Jeff Driskel broke his leg in the first quarter.
Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt’s non-conference slate consists of three home games (Alabama A&M, Kansas State and Western Kentucky) and one road assignment (at Middle Tennessee) for the season opener. The Commodores have to play Alabama, albeit at home, from the West, in addition to a Week 7 trip to Oxford to face Ole Miss. The Commodores get two weeks to prepare for a trip to South Carolina on Oct. 28, but the Gamecocks do as well. Vandy has two separate three-game stretches at home in September and November and won’t travel on consecutive weekends all year.
ATS Note: Vandy owns an 8-3 spread record as a home underdog since Derek Mason took over.
Missouri: Mizzou doesn’t have to get on an airplane until it goes to Kentucky on Oct. 7. However, the Tigers do have two sets of back-to-back road games. They play at UK and at UGA in early October and then close the regular season at Vandy and at Tennessee. The first four games are at home, including the other SEC West game against Auburn in Week 4. The non-conference home tilts are against Missouri State, Purdue and Idaho, while the Tigers play at UConn on Oct. 28. Missouri has its open date before hosting UK. The Tigers could catch the Gators in letdown mode on Nov. 4 when they come to Columbia after their crucial showdown with UGA.
ATS Note: Missouri is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
Kentucky: The Wildcats will be looking for big-time revenge in its opener at Southern Miss after the Golden Eagles rallied from a 35-10 deficit to win 44-35 in Lexington last year. The three other non-con games are at home vs. Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan and Louisville. The draw from the SEC West is at Mississippi State (after UK enjoys an open date) and Ole Miss at home. You can’t ask for much better than that. Missouri gets two weeks to prep for the Wildcats, but they get the Tigers at home after playing at home the two previous weeks as well. UK has one set of back-to-back road games in November at Vandy and at UGA.
ATS Note: UK is 1-5 ATS with only two outright wins in its last six head-to-head encounters with Vandy.