SEC Tip Sheet - Week 12
By Brian Edwards
Bettors have four SEC games to wager on this weekend, in addition to a pair of non-conference games involving Ole Miss and LSU. We’ll have a Florida-South Carolina preview posted later in the week, but let’s take a look at the other contests now.
**Georgia at Auburn**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Georgia (8-2 straight up, 3-6 against the spread) as a nine-point favorite. As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had UGA at 8½ with a total of 47.
--Mark Richt’s team survived a scare in Lexington last week, capturing a 42-38 win as a 13 ½-point favorite. With UK in the red zone in the final minute, Demarcus Dobbs intercepted a screen pass from Randall Cobb to seal the deal for the Dawgs.
--Matthew Stafford had a big day against the Wildcats, bouncing back from a three-interception disaster in a blowout loss to Florida the previous week. Against UK, Stafford threw for 374 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Mohamed Massaquoi had a career-day, hauling in eight receptions for 191 yards and one TD. Knowshon Moreno rushed for 123 yards and three touchdowns.
--Auburn (5-5 SU, 1-8 ATS) snapped a four-game losing streak with last week’s 37-20 win over UT-Martin, but the Tigers have still lost eight in a row ATS. In the non-lined matchup, Auburn was locked up in a 20-20 tie midway through the third quarter. However, the Tigers scored the last 17 points to pull away. Kodi Burns ran for 158 yards and two touchdowns for the winners.
--We know Burns can make things happen with his legs, but he has an atrocious 1/8 touchdown-interception ratio.
--UGA is playing outside of Athens for the fourth consecutive week. The Dawgs have been to Baton Rouge, Jacksonville, Lexington and now Auburn.
--Georgia has won four of the last six head-to-head meetings against the Tigers, including two of the last three at Auburn. When these teams met in Athens last year, UGA broke out the black uniforms and rolled to a 45-20 win as a 1½-point home favorite.
--The ‘over’ has hit in three straight Auburn-Georgia games.
--Dating back to last season, the ‘under’ is 6-2 in Auburn’s last eight home games. The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Tigers this season, 3-2 in their home outings.
--The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for UGA, but it has cashed in each of the Dawgs’ last three games. During that three-game stretch, Georgia has given up 38 points (to LSU), 49 (to UF) and 38 (to UK).
--Raycom Sports will have the telecast at 12:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Mississippi State at Alabama**
--LVSC opened Alabama (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) as a 20-point favorite, but the number was in the 21-22 range early Thursday afternoon. The total was 41 at most spots.
--Nick Saban’s team is in a letdown spot here after surviving a physical, emotional battle in Baton Rouge last week. The Crimson Tide captured a 27-21 win at LSU as a 3½-point favorite. Rashad Johnson had three interceptions, returning one for a touchdown to tie the game late in the second quarter. His third pick came on LSU’s opening drive in overtime, allowing John Parker Wilson’s one-yard quarterback sneak on ‘Bama’s ensuing drive to send the LSU faithful home bitter and heartbroken.
--Gamblers were tortured throughout Alabama’s slugfest with the Bayou Bengals. At the end of regulation, the Tide appeared to be on the cusp of victory as Leigh Tiffin lined up for a short field-goal attempt. However, LSU’s Ricky Jean-Francois blocked the kick to force the extra session. If ‘Bama had made the field goal to win by a 24-21 count, LSU backers would’ve cashed thanks to ‘the hook’ in the 3½-point spread. But in OT, Wilson connected with Julio Jones for a 24-yard gain to the LSU one, and to the elation of ‘Bama backers, Saban wasn’t going to let a kicker determine the game at that point.
--Mississippi State (3-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) has taken the cash in both of its previous games in which it was listed as a double-digit underdog. The Bulldogs lost 3-2 to Auburn as 10-point home ‘dogs, and they lost 34-24 at LSU as 24-point road ‘dogs.
--MSU had an open date to recover from a 14-13 home loss to Kentucky as a 1½-point home ‘chalk’ two weeks ago.
--Mississippi St. head coach Sylvester Croom was born and raised in Tuscaloosa and was one of Bear Bryant’s favorite all-time players, garnering All-American honors as an offensive lineman for the Tide during the early 1970s. Croom is so beloved at his alma mater that an award bearing his name is given out every spring to the hardest-working player. But with Croom coaching at an SEC West rival, Mike Shula decided to change the name of that award a few years back. When that decision was met with outrage, Shula reversed course, but Croom didn’t forget. Therefore, it was poetic justice when MSU went into Bryant-Denny Stadium in 2006 and won a 24-16 decision, prompting Shula’s pink slip a few weeks later.
--MSU is winless in four road games in 2008, going 1-3 ATS in the process.
--The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Alabama’s last five games. The lone ‘over’ came last week and only because the game went to overtime. The 48 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 46 ½-point tally.
--MSU has beaten Alabama the last two seasons and has a 10-3 spread record in the last 13 head-to-head encounters.
--The ‘under’ is 7-2 in the last nine ‘Bama-MSU meetings.
--ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.
**Vanderbilt at Kentucky**
--Most books are listing Kentucky (6-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) as a four-point favorite with the total in the 39-40 range. The Commodores are plus-150 on the money line (risk $100 to win $150).
--Vanderbilt (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) has lost four in a row since starting the season with five consecutive wins. Bobby Johnson’s team is off a 42-14 home loss to Florida as a 24-point underdog. To their credit, however, the ‘Dores nearly notched an improbable backdoor cover after trailing 35-0 at intermission. They were in the red zone threatening to hook up their backers before getting stopped on downs in the final minute.
--I was puzzled when Johnson benched senior QB Chris Nickson in favor of Mackenzie Adams after a 17-14 loss at Mississippi St. Both QBs are solid, but Nickson has a scrambling dynamic that’s special, as evidenced by his six rushing touchdowns this year. Nickson threw a pair of TD passes after Adams left last week’s game with a hip injury. As of Thursday, Johnson had not announced a starter, but the guess here is that Nickson will get the nod.
--Nickson has a 5/2 TD-INT ratio this year, while Adams has a 5/6 ratio.
--Rich Brooks’s team is coming off a gut-wrenching 42-38 loss to Georgia. The Wildcats hooked up their backers, though, cashing as 13 ½-point home underdogs. Kentucky quarterback Randall Cobb ran for 82 yards and three TDs in his second career start.
--UK is 4-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home in 2008. Meanwhile, Vandy is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road.
--Vandy hasn’t tasted a bowl bid since 1982. Since then, the Commodores have had 17 chances to get bowl eligible and have lost each time.
--Vandy leads the SEC and ranks 12th nationally with 26 sacks.
--The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the ‘Cats, 3-2 in their home games. Vandy has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 in its last six outings.
--UK has won four in a row both SU and ATS against Vandy, including last season’s 27-20 triumph as a four-point road favorite.
--Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--As of Thursday afternoon, Florida was a 22-point home favorite against South Carolina. Some books, including BoDog.com, had the Gators at 23. Spurrier coached at Florida for 12 years and lost only five home games by a combined 25 points. He lost by one in his lone return trip to The Swamp since taking over at South Carolina. Therefore, he’s lost by only 26 combined points ever in Gainesville, yet he’s catching nearly that number in one game? Interesting, to say the least.
--Back in August, Alabama had 50/1 odds to win the national championship. That number is now down to 5/2. Florida and USC are currently the co-favorites to win it all at 2/1 odds. I’m holding a 7/1 ticket for the Gators from my August trip to Las Vegas.
--LSU could be in a dangerous game Saturday when it hosts Troy as an 18 ½-point favorite. The Tigers have to be drained after last week’s effort and don’t have much to get them motivated in this spot. Did we mention Jarrett Lee’s struggles? Seriously, it’s upset alert in Baton Rouge this weekend.
--Ole Miss will play host to ULM as a 21-point home favorite. Since 2006, the Rebels have only been double-digit ‘chalk’ once, beating La. Tech 24-0 as 13-point home favorites.
--The Orlando Sentinel's Mike Bianchi had an interesting take on Gator fans for the UF-SC matchup Saturday.
vegasinsider.com.