September NFL Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
It’s September and that means the NFL is back another season of excitement.
And with it we’ll take a monthly view in to some of the best and worst team performances, broken down by site, role and division in the past during the month of September.
It’s now game time!
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): San Francisco is 23-14 against the spread (ATS) this month at Candlestick Park and has Green Bay in the opener and Indianapolis in Week 3. Baltimore, the defending Super Bowl champs, is 24-15 ATS in the opening month of the season and has Cleveland and Houston at home. The Texans contest is really interesting as they are 28-11-2 ATS as non-division home favorites since 2003.
Bad: Cincinnati is after its third straight postseason appearance, but has a long history of first month failures at 11-25 ATS. There first two home games might not improve their record either, taking on the hated Steelers on Monday night and six days later facing Green Bay.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona only has one contest in the initial month of the season versus Detroit, which might be a good thing with its 12-22 ATS mark.
AWAY TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): For all of Dallas’ shortcomings, they are 26-14 ATS in September on the road and face a pair of AFC West squads in Kansas City and San Diego.
Denver is not too far behind the Cowboys in being road warriors at 24-16 ATS and it leaves the Mile High City just once, heading to New Jersey to take on the Giants.
Keep an eye on (Bad): September is not a good time to back the squads from the Keystone State on the road. Philadelphia is 14-26 ATS and Pittsburgh is slightly worse at 14-27 against the number. Both hit the road twice.
FAVORITES
Bad: Motley Crue is doing a stint in Las Vegas at the Hard Rock Hotel for a few weeks this month. Football bettors in town will also likely be following this motley crew of NFL teams who are awful in the role of favorites. If you want to back Arizona (7-15 ATS), Carolina (7-16 ATS), Cincinnati (9-19 ATS) or Pittsburgh (11-23 ATS) it might be time to see if Dr. Feelgood can make a house call.
DOGS
Good: With the Cowboys having such a good record in road outings, it would stand to reason they would do well in the role of underdog. They are 21-9 ATS. Depending on how they perform, Jerry’s Kids might be small dogs in Kansas City and San Diego this month.
Bad: Remember when Philadelphia was a good team? They were still 9-18 ATS when catching points the first month of the season. Now with a new coach in Chip Kelly and Mike Vick still playing quarterback, you might want to hide under the porch rather than take the Eagles at Washington or Denver.
DIVISION
Bad: Remember when the phrase “Commitment to Excellence” meant something about the Oakland Raiders? These days, there is more buffoonery surrounding this franchise than an episode of The Big Bang Theory. Da Raiders are 11-22 ATS this month when facing division foes and are at Denver on Sept. 23, Monday night, where oddly they are 6-1 ATS of late.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Maybe the Bengals can continue to turn around their sordid history and improve on 11-19 ATS record in the AFC North Division. They will have two chances, one on a Monday nighter against Pittsburgh in Week 2 and on the last Sunday of September at Cleveland.