Brandon Lang
THURSDAY
15 DIME
West Virginia - (If your man has 17 1/2 when you go to put this in you buy the half and only lay -17. Don't ever, I repeat, don't you EVER get beat by the hook. Only lay 17.
5 DIME
Reds - Specify Pitchers - Wells vs Harang - (I handicapped this game with an overnight line of -130. This morning it came out at -180/-190. I would never play a favorite of that price and haven't all year. If I did I would lay -1 1/2 runs.)
Rockies - Specify Pitchers - Francis vs Durbin
Angels -1 1/2 runs - Specify Pitchers - Lackey vs Leicester
Free Pick - Padres and Air Force - (For analysis see Daily video)
Note:
Ok, lets get after it again tonight.
Once again we are building towards a great weekend. That is what this business is about. Building.
Winning days build winning weeks build winning months build winning years.
I have won 2 days in a row and 5 of the last 6.
I have won 3 straight weeks.
I have won 6 of the last 8 weeks.
I have won 5 of 8 months this year.
People, just go all in, sit back and relax and watch me do what I have always done since I started doing this for a living, win longterm.
It really is that simple. When you approach this business with a longterm gameplan, you understand what it takes to win longterm.
When you understand how to navigate a 7 day week, work your way thru it, never hitting the panic button no matter how bad it looks, trusting your money management, you can win over a long extended period of time.
No secret here. I don't chase when I am down, if it is a bad week, I pay my man, tell him don't spend it all in one place because I will be back to get it in 7 days.
Simple as that. No matter what happens, I never compromise my discipline for anything on this planet because I know what I do is successfull.
Folks, trust me when I tell you this is going to be a great year. Seriously, I can feel these things. Been at this way too long not to know.
Get on board longterm. Join my team longterm. Become part of the B.Lang family. You will be glad you did.
In the meantime, let's make it a 3rd straight winning day and 6 of the last 7. Rolling baby, rolling. Let's keep the roll going tonight.
WEST VIRGINIA
Ok, I know they played a very sluggish first half at Marshall. Very sluggish.
However, this is primetime on Thursday night against a Maryland team that has no offense.
I mean, when you start having to punt 10 times against the Florida Internationals of the world, you are in trouble before the game starts.
Bottom line is Maryland has no offense and they are going to have to keep up in this game to cover this number.
Personally, I don't trust them in this spot and in my opinion, West Virginia is without question the right side of this game.
I mean, so they were sluggish against Marshall, but they still put up 48 points and over 500 yards total offense.
You add that with the 62 points and 542 yards at home to Western Michigan and this is a go with team or you don't go with them at all.
My point is, they are so explosive, you can't go against them regardless of the number when they are playing a team like Maryland who struggled as they did against Florida Atlantic.
You finally throw in the fact that West Virginia under Rodriquez is 9-2-1 ATS last 12 on the road and it is here you find value and the reason why they have that 9-2-1 ATS mark.
I am laying this number and calling for a 3 touchdown winner and just like last year, we may have to sweat a backdoor but nothing you can do about that.
Right side is West Virginia and I am on them here.
REDS - (As I mentioned at the top, this was a play at -130 which is the value I was talking about in the following analysis. I would never lay -180/-190. Havent all year. I would lay -1 1/2 runs before I laid a big number like I saw today.)
If Kip Wells beat Harang tonight, so be it. I personally don't see that happening.
Harang bounced back from his horrific start against the Mets, a game I used him and a game he gave u 6 runs in 6 innings of a blowout loss.
He came back his next start and went 7 solid innings of 2 run ball in a no decision against the Brewers.
He comes in here at 14-4 on the year with a respectable 3.64 ERA including a 7-3 mark at home.
Wells is not only 3-9 on the highway this year but 5-16 overall and 0-4 his last 5 versus the Reds.
Great price and great spot for Harang and I will gladly lay it and call for the Reds to roll.
Make Harang 15-4 after tonight.
ROCKIES
You beat the guy who was 6-0 at home like the Rockies did last night and truthfully, I like their chances to beat Durbin tonight.
Over his last 2 starts, Durbin has given up 9 runs in 4 innings going 0-2. Not exactly confidence building numbers now is it.
Francis has had a nice year at 15-7 including a strong 8-3 road mark with a 3.77 ERA. Pretty solid there folks.
Over his last 3 starts Francis is 2-1 allowing 5 runs in 23 innings. He will be solid again tonight.
Phillies, just like last year, are falling fast because they have no bullpen and they have no manager. What can I say, Charlie Manuel is horrible.
I am backing the Rockies tonight.
ANGELS -1 1/2 RUNS
They are beating this Orioles pitching staff as if they were little leaguers.
Angels are in the go zone here folks and the Orioles and this horrible pitching staff isn't about to slow them down.
After shredding the Orioles 10-5 in game one of the series, they hammered them 18-6 last night for a 28-11 run.
Tonight they send Lackey to the hill, who in his last road start, he shutout the Mariners with a complete game win.
Angels get their 7th straight road win tonight and they get the sweep of the Orioles along with it.
Angels roll large.
PADRES FREE PICK
Listen, pretty simple pick here.
Maddux has won 2 in a row, it should be 3 in a row and he has beaten the Dodgers 4 in a row.
He has allowed no more than 2 runs against them his last 4 and in his last 3 starts he has allowed just 1, 2 and 1 run.
He is on fire and I will gladly make them a free pick winner.
Tom Stryker
2* TCU
Guaranteed Pick: Jimmy The Moose
Game: Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Sep 13 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reason: The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favorite. In their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter they are 12-4. Colorado has won 7 of their last 10 games. Francis is on the mound tonight and in his last 8 starts as a favorite, the Rockies are 7-1. In his last 51 starts overall the Rockies are a money making 35-16. The Phillies are 4-7 in their last 11 games. Philadelphia was ponded 12-0 last night by the Rockies. Durbin's on the mound and the Phillies have lost 3 of his last 4 starts. Philadelphia has dropped 4 of the 6 meetings with Colorado this season. Play on the Rockies -.
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: West Virginia at Maryland Sep 13 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: West Virginia
Reason: Play on West Va. at 7:45 ET. Last week West Va. had just six points at the half in Huntington, West Va. versus Marshall. However, the Mountaineers scored 42 points in the second half to win, 48-23. They finished with 511 total yards and after two games, rank seventh in the nation in ypg (526.5) and fourth in scoring at 55.0 ppg. West Va. is 2nd in rushing yards at 339.0 ypg (7.0 ypc with 12 TDs!), featuring the dynamic one-two combination of QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton (both Heisman candidates). White has completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 341 yards (4 TDPs and no INTs), plus run for 222 yards (8.2 ypc) and three more TDs. Slaton has 255 yards (6.4 ypc) and five TDs. The defense has allowed 23.5 ppg but Maryland's offense is hardly a threat. Maryland's D has been great, allowing 46.5 ypg rushing (1.9 ypc) and 128.5 ypg through the air (49% completions). However, the Terps have played Villanova (Div I-AA) and Florida International (loser of 13 straight). Ironically, West Va's Rich Rodriguez and Maryland's Ralph Friedgen are both in their seventh years at their respective schools and both own identical 52-24 marks. However, Rodriguez has the much superior team and will cover this double-digit spread with "room to spare," after last week's "wake-up call" at Marshall. West Va. is my 15* Prime Time Showdown.
View Lines and Log Out
Sebastian
NCAAF
10* WVU -15.5
20* Air Force +8
MLB
10* TOR
10* SEA
20* COL
DONBEST STEAM
Time of Play Game Date Game # Team Line Result
9:49:04am 2007-09-15 151 Ball State Over 54½
9:43:51am 2007-09-15 175 UTEP +6
9:40:54am 2007-09-14 105 Oklahoma State Under 63½
7:04:05am 2007-09-13 102 Maryland Under 64½
WAYNE ROOT
CHAIRMAN - MARYLAND
malinsky
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: Michigan
Offered at: -7.5 Sportsbook
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MICHIGAN over NOTRE DAME
Time to get back on the anti-Notre Dame bandwagon at a bargain price here, while also catching the Wolverines at exactly the right time. The oddsmakers and first major stores were well aware that Chad Henne was not going to play when there were -10’s out there last Sunday night, yet we now see -7.5, and the opportunity to pluck the occasional -7 in the marketplace. Deal us in.
We have written so much about Charlie Weis and his program the past couple of seasons that we are not going to be redundant, except for the very basics – a head coach whose only college experience came as a South Carolina assistant back in the 80’s is going to face a serious challenge in properly developing a young team. This is not just about his offensive designs right now, but rather the ability to fit all of the pieces together, and the Fighting Irish are a long way from being single digit road underdogs against this class of opponent. The offense has been abysmal, of course, failing to score a TD so far and allowing 15 sacks, with little chemistry in their execution because it took so long to settle on the starting QB. But there are issues galore. A soft defensive front that lacks size has already allowed 429 yards rushing in that new 3-4 alignment, and the overall discipline of the team was awful at Penn State, where they committed 14 penalties. While we usually list such struggling young teams as a “work in progress”, we are not sure that there are any real signs of progress yet.
The Michigan story is well-known by now, a team that expected to contend for the national championship has been stunningly dropped twice in a row at home. But there were tactical considerations in each of those defeats, as they faced opponents with a lot of speed in their spread offenses, something that Notre Dame simply can not emulate, and there was a huge psychological mountain against Oregon last Saturday. Now the tactics and the setting change in a major way. The speed of the Wolverine defense is not much of an issue, and instead of the pressure that built up off of that opening loss to Appalachian State, which contributed to the collapse vs. Oregon, our history of studying such teams tells us that we will see a side playing loosely and with abandon here. Certainly the following from team leader Mike Hart does not hurt - "This team's going to be ready to go, there's no doubt in my mind. I'm not going to lose. We're not going to lose,"
Here is what happens in college football - when a team reaches rock bottom it can often be cathartic, and they can rebound in a major way, especially when there is a leader like Hart on the field. And it will be Hart’s ability to have a big day against this defense that is also the catalyst, as he and the other veterans reach back to make the transition easier for Ryan Mallett at QB. While backing a freshman QB in his first start could be a concern at other times, his experience is on par with Jimmy Clausen, so nothing is given away at that position. In truth, having a veteran like Henne to help him prepare this week is something that Clausen does not have, and the young Notre Dame QB certainly does not have anyone in the class of Hart or Mario Manningham to get the ball to.
On a week in which no one else in the marketplace seems to want them, we will be in the right place at the right time to pick up a Michigan rout. The Wolverines do not need to play their best game to cover this small number, but we expect to get just that from them as they break this wide open
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: West Virginia at Maryland Sep 13 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: West Virginia
Reason: Play on West Va. at 7:45 ET. Last week West Va. had just six points at the half in Huntington, West Va. versus Marshall. However, the Mountaineers scored 42 points in the second half to win, 48-23. They finished with 511 total yards and after two games, rank seventh in the nation in ypg (526.5) and fourth in scoring at 55.0 ppg. West Va. is 2nd in rushing yards at 339.0 ypg (7.0 ypc with 12 TDs!), featuring the dynamic one-two combination of QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton (both Heisman candidates). White has completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 341 yards (4 TDPs and no INTs), plus run for 222 yards (8.2 ypc) and three more TDs. Slaton has 255 yards (6.4 ypc) and five TDs. The defense has allowed 23.5 ppg but Maryland's offense is hardly a threat. Maryland's D has been great, allowing 46.5 ypg rushing (1.9 ypc) and 128.5 ypg through the air (49% completions). However, the Terps have played Villanova (Div I-AA) and Florida International (loser of 13 straight). Ironically, West Va's Rich Rodriguez and Maryland's Ralph Friedgen are both in their seventh years at their respective schools and both own identical 52-24 marks. However, Rodriguez has the much superior team and will cover this double-digit spread with "room to spare," after last week's "wake-up call" at Marshall. West Va. is my 15* Prime Time Showdown.
Winning Points Online Football pick of the day.
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**PREFERRED
WEST VIRGINIA over MARYLAND* by 3 (Selection: Home Underdog)
Three of Maryland's first six drives in last season's 45-24 defeat ended in
turnovers, when the QB who played the entire game was Sam ''The
Walking Turnover'' Hollenbach. He threw two INTs. But the most damaging
TO occurred before the Maryland offense had run a play. After West
Virginia scored on its opening drive for 7-0 lead, then-freshman Darius
Heyward-Bey (now a key wide receiver for the Terps) lost a fumble on
the ensuing kickoff. Bingo, West Virginia goes up 14-0 on a cheap, 11-yard
drive before Hollenbach had ''led'' his team to the line of scrimmage. For
the entire first half, West Virginia's average starting field position was
the Maryland 47-yard-line and the halftime score was 38-10.
Maryland stayed the course and ran the football 33 times for 122 yards. They
learned that they can run the ball against West Virginia and grind some clock.
QB Josh Portis -- ineligible to play -- has been imitating WVU quarterback Pat
White in practice for Maryland. "We ran a couple of quarterback draws today
and he's cutting it back and forth, and as a defense we're getting mad
because we're running all over the field, but he's only there to prepare us,"
said DT Carlos Feliciano. "He's only doing what he's been told to. For Portis it
doesn't seem that hard because he's so quick when he makes his cuts. Once
he hits a hole, he's fast. We've been working on our pursuit angles, trying to
catch up with him."
"Without a guy like Portis back there to run that option, I can't say we would
be as prepared as much as we are going to be," safety Christian Varner
said. "He just gives us so many looks. You just can't duplicate that speed."
Feliciano said Pha'Terrell Washington -- a 5.8-Star recruit (out of 6.1), is
doing his best Steve Slaton imitation in practice. "Man, he's been cutting it all
up on us, tearing us up," Feliciano said. "We're getting a little mad, but he's
only making us better." Maryland's defensive coordinator Chris Cosh is in
his second season with the team and took a lot of heat for underestimating
West Virginia last season after his defense missed tackle after tackle after
tackle against these guys. It looks like he is determined to get much better
results this time around.
Meanwhile, after playing it pretty bland on offense in the first two games,
the word on Maryland's offense is "We're gonna let it all hang out on
Thursday." After the Terps' 26-10 win over Florida International, QB Jordan
Steffy was asked if coach Friedgen was calling any plays deep down the
field. As the question was being asked, Steffy was already shaking his
head, 'No.' "At this point we haven't really went up top much," he said.
"I'm not sure whether he's trying to work our way into this slowly or what,
but I'm sure there's a reason behind it."
Besides not wanting to tip off West Virginia, Maryland was facing blitzes
from Florida International on every play this past Saturday. "They brought
every pressure they could bring," Steffy said. "The first half we did a
little bit better as far as picking things up. They literally blitzed every
person possible they could blitz. We got the win, which is all that I've said
time and time again. I just care about winning, and we came out of there with
a (26-10) win.
This past Saturday, Marshall did a decent job of containing WVU early by
pushing their defensive ends vertically up the field, containing and
funneling everything to the LBs in the middle. But Marshall's tank emptied
too soon. Maryland has better depth to follow that blueprint longer, and
force White and Slaton to actually stay in the middle and take a beating,
instead of breaking off a series of huge runs that end out of bounds
without them absorbing a real shot. WEST VIRGINIA, 31-28.
Scott Sprietzer - Tcu
Wolkosky Milan
5-1 Yesterday!!!
Today:
10* HORNED FROGS -8
10* TCU/AF UNDER 42
10* MOUNTAINEERS -16
10* WVU/MD OVER 62
10* ROCKIES
10* TB/SEA OVER
Free: ANGELS RL
Dr BOB
Michigan
Boston College
Tulsa
UCLA
Pittusburgh
Ben Burns
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Sep 13 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Reason: The Angels figure to have a significant advantage here. Leicester has made one start for the Orioles this season. Although he managed to earn the victory, he didn't pitch well, allowing four runs in just five innings. He isn't likely to get much run support this evening. Lackey is 10-4 with a stellar 2.84 ERA and 1.184 WHIP on the road this season. He's been even better recently, recording a miniscule 1.99 ERA and 0.970 WHIP his last three starts. Additionally, he is 6-2 (Angels are 7-2) with a 3.41 ERA in nine starts against the Orioles. While the Angels have won six of their last nine, yesterday's loss dropped the Orioles to 2-9 their last 11 games and an awful 3-18 their last 21. Consider laying the large price with the visitors.
Lenny Del Genio
Guaranteed Pick:
Game: West Virginia at Maryland Sep 13 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: West Virginia
Reason: Play on West Va. at 7:45 ET. Last week West Va. had just six points at the half in Huntington, West Va. versus Marshall. However, the Mountaineers scored 42 points in the second half to win, 48-23. They finished with 511 total yards and after two games, rank seventh in the nation in ypg (526.5) and fourth in scoring at 55.0 ppg. West Va. is 2nd in rushing yards at 339.0 ypg (7.0 ypc with 12 TDs!), featuring the dynamic one-two combination of QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton (both Heisman candidates). White has completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 341 yards (4 TDPs and no INTs), plus run for 222 yards (8.2 ypc) and three more TDs. Slaton has 255 yards (6.4 ypc) and five TDs. The defense has allowed 23.5 ppg but Maryland's offense is hardly a threat. Maryland's D has been great, allowing 46.5 ypg rushing (1.9 ypc) and 128.5 ypg through the air (49% completions). However, the Terps have played Villanova (Div I-AA) and Florida International (loser of 13 straight). Ironically, West Va's Rich Rodriguez and Maryland's Ralph Friedgen are both in their seventh years at their respective schools and both own identical 52-24 marks. However, Rodriguez has the much superior team and will cover this double-digit spread with "room to spare," after last week's "wake-up call" at Marshall. West Va. is my 15* Prime Time Showdown.