Ben Burns' Pitching MISMATCH of the Month (38-19 L57!) -- Thursday
I'm playing on TORONTO. While the "Wildcard" spot is all but mathematically out of the question, the Jays should have a significant advantage on the mound this evening. Burnett has been brilliant lately. In his most recent start he pitched eight complete innings, while allowing just three hits and one run. That marked the fourth time in his six starts since returning from the disabled list that Burnett has allowed one run or less. In fact, he is 3-1 with a miniscule 1.90 ERA over that stretch! Note that he allowed three runs or less in all six of those starts, lasting greater than six innings in ALL of them. On the other hand, Kennedy lasted just five innings his last time out. Note that was just Kennedy's second career start and that he allowed seven hits and three walks. For the season, Burnett is 5-2 with an excellent 2.74 ERA and 1.027 WHIP at home for the season. Burnett is also 3-2 with a solid 3.73 ERA vs. the Yankees. In his lone start against them this season, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits, en route to a 6-0 Toronto victory. While Burnett is backed by a Jays' bullpen which has a stellar 2.78 ERA and 1.046 WHIP at home, Kennedy will be supported by a Yankees' bullpen which has a poor 4.46 ERA and 1.545 WHIP on the road. Its worth mentioning that the Yankees could get looking ahead to tomorrow's big game/series vs. Boston and also that they haven't swept a series here in more than four years. Behind another strong start from Burnett, look for the Jays to rise to the occasion and avoid the sweep. *Pitching Mismatch of the Month
Thursday TOM....AF Under
Thursday Roast ....Maryland
Dr. Bob Pro Foots ...
Rotation #225-226 UNDER (38 1/2) Oakland at Denver 2-Stars UNDER 38 or higher.
2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Oakland played pretty well offensively last week against a bad Lions’ defense, but the Raiders will have a tougher time against a Denver defense with two great cornerbacks. Daunte Culpepper takes over for an injured Josh McCown, but I rated those two quarterbacks the same heading into the season. Denver’s offense moved the ball well last week in Buffalo while the Raiders’ defense was abused by the Lions. Those results may reverse this week as the Broncos have averaged 5.3 yards per play or less in 5 of Jay Cutler’s 6 career starts and Oakland is still a good defensive team regardless of what happened last week. In fact, Oakland’s bad defensive effort in week 1 sets them up in a solid 102-50-5 UNDER situation this week and the Raiders have still gone Under in 11 of their last 13 games. My ratings predict a total of 38 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll go UNDER 38 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Oakland plus the points, as my ratings favor Denver by just 7 ½ points and the Broncos are only 5-21 ATS under coach Shanahan when favored by more than 5 points in the regular season following a victory.
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The 49ers didn’t play well offensively last week, but their new defense looks very good. San Francisco held a decent Arizona attack to just 3.9 yards per play and only 3.4 yards per pass play as All-Pro cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris shut down the Cardinals receiving tandem while rookie LB Patrick Willis logged 11 tackles in his debut. San Francisco rebuilt their defense in the off-season and it looks like a better than average unit. The Rams offense is in trouble without big LT Orlando Pace protecting Marc Bulger and Pace appears to be out for the season after getting hurt last week. Pace missed some time last season and Rams’ quarterback Marc Bulger went from averaging 6.9 yards per pass play in 8 games with Pace protecting his back to just 5.6 yppp in the final 8 games of the season without Pace. Bulger averaged just 3.8 yppp last week and he’ll have a tough time finding open receivers this week against one of the best sets of corners in the league. The Rams’ defense was horrible last week against both the run (4.9 ypr) and the pass (7.4 yppp), so expect the 49ers to look much better offensively this week. My ratings favor St. Louis by just 1 point and the Rams are just 6-15-1 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 3 points or more, including 1-4-1 ATS last season in coach Linehan’s first year. San Francisco applies to a solid 52-20-1 statistical match- up indicator that is 10-1 ATS in week 2. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Arizona had a tough time throwing the ball against the 49ers but their defense looked very good and the offensive is likely to bounce back with a better effort. Seattle looked better than I expected against the Bucs, but my ratings only favor the Seahawks by 2 points in this game. Arizona applies to a solid 187-106-10 ATS statistical indicator and that is certainly enough to get me favoring the upset. I’ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make Arizona a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points under coach Lovie Smith and the Bears apply to a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation. Kansas City, meanwhile, applies to a solid 69-23-1 ATS situation. My ratings favor Chicago by 12 points, so the line is fair, but I’m going to resist making the Chiefs a Best Bet since the Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS the week following a loss the last 2 seasons. That team trend is not nearly enough to cancel out the general situations so I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take KC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Both teams will likely be without their starting quarterbacks, as Baltimore’s Steve McNair is expected to miss with groin injury while the Jets’ Chad Pennington is doubtful with an ankle sprain. Baltimore has the more experienced backup in Kyle Boller and Boller looked very good off the bench last season (9.8 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays) and was improving as starter before McNair replaced him last season. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Jets if Pennington doesn’t play and Clemens has had no success in very limited action in his career. However, Clemens looked good in the preseason and many think he could be an improvement over Pennington (I’ll reserve judgment). New York applies to a very strong 63-10 ATS bounce back situation and the line appears to be fair (my ratings favor Baltimore by 10 ½ points). The Ravens, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation but I’m not going to make the Jets a Best Bet since Baltimore is 33-14-2 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Billick, including 19-4-1 ATS hosting non-division teams. The team trend is not as strong as the general situations favoring Baltimore so I will consider New York a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta 7
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The Falcons managed just 4.0 yards per play and 3 points in their first regular season game with Michael Vick and today they face a Jaguars’ team that will be fired up defensively after allowing 284 rushing yards to the Titans last week. Jacksonville is traditionally one of the best teams in the league at defending the run and their defense allowed just 13 points despite the uncharacteristically poor run defense. Teams that score 7 points or less in their opener are not good bets in game 2, especially when facing teams that allowed 13 points or less in week 1 (6-21 ATS). My ratings favor Jacksonville by 13 points with a total of 36 points. I mention the projected points based on my ratings because this game applies to a 102-50-5 ATS early season UNDER angle. The total is only 34 ½ points, so some of the value of that angle is lost due to negative line value. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 34 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Cowboys coach Wade Wilson can’t be too excited about how his defense performed in last week’s 45-35 win over the Giants, so I expect a better effort from that unit this week. Miami always has a solid defense and they tend to play their best at home. In fact, Miami is 57-34 UNDER at home since 1996, including 6-2 UNDER last season and 24-8 UNDER when the total is 40 points or higher. This game also applies to a solid 102-50-5 UNDER angle. Unfortunately my math projects a total of 42 points (and favors Dallas by 3 points) so I’ll resist playing the UNDER as a Best Bet at the current line of 40 ½ points. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher.
Bob (CONFIRMED):
3 Star Selection
MIAMI OHIO 24 Cincinnati (-8.5) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points.
3 Star Selection
KANSAS (-23.0) 42 Toledo 9
04:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 4-Stars at -21 points or less and for 2- Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
2 Star Selection
**KENTUCKY 40 Louisville (-6.5) 37
04:30 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
I?d make Kentucky a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 7 points or more again.
Strong Opinion
Mississippi St. 19 AUBURN (-13.0) 26
09:30 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07 take Mississippi State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UCLA (-14.0) 30 UTAH 10
02:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I?d make UCLA a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.
MICHAEL TRAPP (from Don Wagner's place)
MLB GOM : Oakland A's
Don' remenber his record for MLB GOM off hand , but I know it was over 67%.
ASlso he's doing well this season & tends to finish the MLB season strong.
Wayne Root
paid as always / confirmed as always
Chairman - Terps
Millionaire - Rockies
Money Maker - Cubs
doc's college
4* Maryland +16.5
4* Central Flr +19
4* Tenn +7.5
3* iowa -17.5
6* atlantic +7.5
4* Indiana -13.5
4* ul monroe +23
5* Wash. +4
3* Neb +9.5
Northcoast marquee
TCU - 7.5
rob ferringo
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COLLEGE SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #133 Tennessee (+7.5) over Florida (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
You have to fade the national champs on general principle. And when you factor in that this is a rivalry game that has been decided by an average of 6.7 points over the last 10 years and 4.0 over the last three this is simply too many points. The home team is just 2-5 in this series and six of the past nine meetings have been decided by four points or less. Also, the Vols are 3-0 ATS as SEC dogs of 8.0 or more over the past decade and I think they’re better prepared for this game. UT has played two quality opponents in Cal and Southern Miss, while the Gators have beaten up cream puffs. We’ll take the points and the team with a chip on its shoulder.
4-Unit Play. Take #166 Alabama (-3) over Arkansas (6:45 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Last year the Razorbacks had a much better team and were playing at home, but barely escaped with an OT win over the Tide. This year Arkansas is not as good and is playing on the road against an improved team with revenge. I just don’t see how Alabama doesn’t win this game – and win it big. Arkansas simply is not as good as they were last year and the Tide is better. There is no lookahead situation here and the motivation of back-to-back OT losses is enough for ‘Bama to take this one.
4-Unit Play. Take #155 Southern Mississippi (-1) over East Carolina (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Right now is the perfect time to fade East Carolina, coming off an impressive game against a poor UNC team. Southern Miss, on the other hand, got slapped around by Tennessee. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t the much better team here. The Eagles are 9-2 against the Pirates since 1996, with SMU winning five of the last six by an average score of 32-14. Southern Miss is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six at East Carolina. The Pirates stole a fluke win last year on the road, and I think the Eagles get revenge this year with a strong showing.
3-Unit Play. Take #187 New Mexico (+10) over Arizona (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Any time you have a team that can run the ball and play the type of defense that the Lobos do you’ll happily take the points. I don’t trust Willie Tuitama at QB for the Wildcats, and that Lobos secondary is one of the best that Arizona will see all year. New Mexico is 19-10-1 ATS as a road dog over the last seven years and 10-4 ATS in the last three.
3-Unit Play. Take #167 Boston College (+7) over Georgia Tech (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I simply think this is too many points in a game featuring two good teams. Also, I trust Matt Ryan more than I do Taylor Bennett and after blowout wins over Wake Forest and N.C. State I think that the Eagles have proven more than the Jackets have with wins over sad-sacks Notre Dame and Samford. This should be a grinder, one that I think B.C. can win, and thus there is value in taking the points.
2-Unit Play. Take #149 UCLA (-14) over Utah (5 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
We’re going to keep going to the well until the well is dry with the Bruins. They hammered the Utes 31-10 last year in California, and while I do think that playing on the road will be much more difficult I also think that a veteran UCLA squad will remain focused. Utah has just been decimated by injuries, and will be without four offensive starters – their starting QB, RB, WR, and RT – and their young defense has gotten manhandled over the past two weeks.
2-Unit Play. Take #129 Eastern Michigan (+14.5) over Northern Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
This is a lot of points to overcome for two offenses that don’t score much. Northern Illinois is only averaging 17 points per game and can’t be feeling too good about themselves after a loss to Southern Illinois. EMU has a wealth of experience and I think could be a surprise team in the MAC. I think they could win this one outright, and thus there’s value taking the points. Finally, the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to NIU.
1-Unit Play. Take #169 Duke (+16.5) over Northwestern (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Northwestern proved last week that it doesn’t deserve to be a double-digit dog and now they’re laying a ton of points to a team desperate for a win. The Wildcats are just 2-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2001 and will be without their stud running back Tyrell Sutton this week and Duke has covered in their of their last four trips to Chicago.
NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.
Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. New Orleans is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while Tampa is still a bottom-third club. The Tampa offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and New Orleans has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.
4-Unit Play. Take #221 Seattle (-2.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper team”. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. Arizona will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran Seattle front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Buffalo at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. Buffalo’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 Kansas City at Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.
Chicago went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 Tennessee (+7.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical Tennessee was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.
2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in St. Louis before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.
2-Unit Play. Take #232 Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. Washington is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, Washington is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.
BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Chicago (-1.5), Jacksonville (-0.5), and Pittsburgh (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see Chicago 34-10, Jacksonville 24-13, and Pittsburgh 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.