SNF News and Notes 12/12

NFL Tech Trends - Week 14
By Bruce Marshall

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS...Cowboys 4-0 vs. line since Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips. Cowboys have also covered last 2 at home after dropping previous 4 vs. number as host TY. Revenge for Andy Reid after Dallas dominated Brids LY, winning and covering three times, including a pair of humbling wins at Arlington (one in the wild card round). Birds only 5-6 vs. points TY and 3-3 away. Andy "over" 20-10 last 20 since late '08 and "over" 5 of 6 away TY (and 7-2 "over" last 9 on road). Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.

SNF - Eagles at Cowboys
By Chris David

It’s often been said in sports gambling circles that betting on the final weeks of the NFL regular season is comparable to wagering on the preseason because it’s impossible to predict the unpredictable.

With that being said, what do you make of Sunday’s finale between Philadelphia (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) and Dallas (4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS) from Cowboys Stadium?

Most sportsbooks sent the Eagles out as three-point road favorites and the number has jumped a half-point at most outfits, and even as high as four at other betting counters.

Andy Reid and the Eagles have been the more consistent team thus far, but current form is nothing to shy away from and Dallas is red hot. Ever since the Cowboys fired head coach Wade Phillips, the team has gone 3-1 and easily could be 4-0 if it didn’t fumble away a win against the Saints (27-30) on Thanksgiving. Gamblers backing interim head coach Jason Garrett and the ‘Boys have watched the club go 4-0 ATS during this span.

What’s even more impressive is that Dallas isn’t playing the sisters of the poor during this run. Along with the Saints (9-3), the Cowboys defeated the Giants (8-4), Lions (2-10) and just last Sunday at the Colts (7-6). Except for Detroit, the other three teams have great chances to make the playoffs.

Is Dallas finally showing us what it should’ve been all season long? Perhaps, but it’s also beneficial when your team wins the turnover battle, which has been the case lately. It also helps when you score and Dallas has averaged 33.3 PPG during its hot streak. Playing against a young Eagles’ defense that has been burned in the red zone could keep this firestorm hot on Sunday. Plus, the Eagles’ defense will be missing defensive back Asante Samuel (knee) for this week’s outing. The shutdown corner leads the team with seven interceptions.

Philadelphia hasn’t been a bad bet on the road this season, going 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS, with losses coming to Chicago (26-31) and Tennessee (19-37). Even though Reid and his troops sit atop the NFC East, this battle could be considered a must-win for the Birds. Hear me out…

Next Sunday, the Eagles meet the Giants on the road. If New York improves to 9-4 with a road win over Minnesota (Game moved to Monday due to Snow) and Philadelphia loses to Dallas, the G-Men will own a one-game division lead. Assuming New York gets revenge against Philadelphia, the lead will go two. And that’s when the division crown goes out the window for the Eagles and Wild Card talk comes into play. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, it has key losses to the Packers and Bears, both teams in the playoff mix. Should be interesting to see how it ends, but this is a big one for Philly tonight.

SNF Trend

Unlike the ‘chalky’ run on MNF, the primetime tilt on Sunday has watched the underdogs produce a 7-6-1 ATS record through the first 14 games. The home team has gone 8-6 during this span, but three of the last four contests on SNF have watched the visitor leave with a victory. Philadelphia is 2-0 both SU and ATS on SNF this season, while Dallas is 0-2 both SU and ATS.

Over Easy?

This is the highest total (51) on the board and it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here. The Eagles (23.4 PPG) and Cowboys (28 PPG) have both been lit up defensively, plus they have the playmakers on offense to score quickly. The Cowboys have scored 33, 35, 27 and 38 points since the coaching change in “Big D.” Also, Philadelphia has put up 26 points or more in five of six on the road, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 for the Birds. Dallas has watched the ‘over’ go 10-2 this season, including a perfect 6-0 ledger at home.

Head-to-Head

This will be the first battle between the two teams this season, with the second encounter happening from Lincoln Financial Field in Week 17. Last year, Dallas pulled off the next-to-impossible 3-0 sweep over the Eagles (20-16, 24-0, 34-14), the last victory coming in the first round of the playoffs. The ‘under’ went 2-1.

Insider Angle

The sample size isn’t huge on this current trend so bettors should tread lightly but playing on Thursday’s has benefited teams the following week. If you don’t include the two matchups that had both teams playing on extra rest, the number stands at 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS this season. Does Philadelphia and Houston keep the trend rolling?

Thursday - Nov. 11: Baltimore 20 at Atlanta 26

Following Week:
Ravens 37 Panthers 13
Falcons 34 Rams 17

Thursday – Nov. 18: Chicago 16 at Miami 0

Following Week:
Bears 31 Eagles 26
Dolphins 33 Raiders 17

Thursday – Nov. 25: Thanksgiving Day

Following Week:

Since two of the matchups (Jets-Patriots, Saints-Bengals) involved teams playing on the holiday, it was going to be a wash either way. But if you’re keeping score, the Cowboys (Colts) and Lions (Bears) both covered numbers last Sunday.

Thursday – Dec. 2: Houston 24 at Philadelphia 34

Philadelphia at Dallas – Result Pending…
Baltimore at Houston – Result Pending…

vegasinsider.com

SNF Week 14

Eagles (8-4) @ Cowboys (4-8) - Seven of last eight Eagle games went over total, as did last nine Dallas games. Cowboys are 3-1 under Garrett (4-0 vs spread), losing to Saints by FG, so they’re playing with more energy since coaching change; Pokes were 3-0 vs Philly LY, winning by average score of 26-10. Home team won five of last six series games, as Eagles lost last three visits here. Philly is 4-1 since its bye, but banged-up defense allowed 55 points in last two games (8 TDs on 19 drives)- they’ve scored 26+ points in all five games since their bye (4-1). Road team is 10-0-1 vs spread in game involving team that played Colts the previous week; home teams are 1-4 SU, 0-4-1 vs spread week after playing Indy, allowing 32.6 ppg.

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
By Vince Akins

Eagles at Cowboys - The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (14.9 ppg) since December 14, 2003 vs a divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since October 15, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Cowboys are 9-0 OU (12.3 ppg) since November 22, 1990 as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-8.4 ppg) since October 29, 2000 at home the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (15.9 ppg) since September 09, 1991 as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

Tips and Trends

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

EAGLES: (-3.5 O/U 50.5) Philadelphia has won 4 of their past 5 games, and QB Michael Vick appears to be on his way to NFL MVP and the Pro Bowl. Vick has accumulated more than 2,700 total YDS in his time as starting QB, along with 21 TD's. Since Vick became starter, the Eagles have arguably the most dangerous offense in the NFL. Philadelphia is averaging 28.7 PPG and 400 YPG, 2nd and 1st respectively in the NFL. The Eagles have scored at least 26 PTS in each of their past 5 games. The Eagles are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS overall this year. The Eagles are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this season. Philadelphia has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 3 games both SU and ATS to Dallas. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in December. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Eagles are 6-2 ATS last 8 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - CB Asante Samuel (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 24

COWBOYS: Dallas has won 3 of their past 4 games SU, and remain the most dangerous 4-8 SU team in the NFL. The Cowboys have responded to the coaching change, and are finally playing up to their talent base. The Cowboys beat the Peyton Manning led Colts on the road as a 5.5 underdog in their most recent game. Dallas is 5-7 ATS this year, including 4-2 ATS as the listed underdog. The Cowboys are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS at home this year. Dallas is averaging 24.5 PPG this year, 10th best in the NFL. QB Jon Kitna has done a masterful job leading the Cowboys this year, as he's completed 65% of his passes with 11 TD's. 4 different WR's have more 4 or more TD's this year, led by Dez Bryant and his 6 TD's. The Cowboys have given up 65 PTS in their past 2 games combined, but that was against top ranked offenses Indianapolis and New Orleans. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on fieldturf. Dallas is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Dallas is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games played in December.

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS last 4 games overall.
Over is 8-3 last 11 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - TE Jason Witten (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)