Some information, my picks and....would you take NO - 2.5 pts?

The match up between IND and NO will be the 10 SB played in Miami. Backers of NO money line might not want to hear this but South Beach is all about laying the chalk. Favorites have won eight of the nine games SU. ATS the favorites are 6 – 3 in south beach.

The over has gone 5 – 4 in the same 9 games played in Miami. This year the total is currently listed at 56 and could rise come game time. According to past history this will be the eighth SB that has an O/U listed at 50 or higher. In the previous 7 games where the O/U has been listed at 50 or higher the under has gone 4 – 3. However 2 of the 7 games were played in Miami and both of those games went over.

As for doing a parlay here’s what you need to know. The combination of FAV/O has occurred 14 of the 43 SB’s – this is 33%. From here it goes down hill fast. The DOG/U comes in second place occurring 12 of the 43 SB’s. The two least likely combinations are DOG/O and FAV/U. No surprise that the majority of bettors have loaded up on IND and OVER.

Did you know that teams that return picks for TD are a perfect 9 – 0 in he SB?

NO surrendered 341 points this year. If they win only the 2006 Colts and the 2007 Giants will have won SB’s with defenses that were worse.

IND does have one glaring weakness that conventional wisdom tells us would be impossible to overcome, IND can’t get off the field on third down. Opponents converted 45% of their third down attempts against IND this year, only ATL was worse.

Based upon who you like the following 4 tid bits may help you decide which team to bet: 1. Teams that rush for more yards in the SB are 35 – 8 SU and 32 – 8 – 3 ATS, that’s 80%.

2. Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the SB are 38 – 5 SU and 32 – 8 – 3 ATS, again.

3. In the 42 previous SB’s the team that has more turnovers has won the SB just 4 times SU and six times ATS, that’s 85%. Amazingly the last 3 times this happened SU it happened to PITT, 3 SB wins.

4. Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31 – 12 SU 30 – 10 – 3 ATS that’s 75%.

Teams that hold an edge in at least 3 of these 4 key statistical categories mentioned above are 36 – 2 SU and 32 – 5 – 1 ATS.

Teams that win all four categories listed above are 23 – 0 SU and 21 – 1- 1 ATS. The only ATS loss was SB XXXIX – PHIL beat NE ATS.

When a team is favored between 3 and 6 points the chalk is 8 – 2 ATS. When the game is on grass like this one the over is 17 – 9. Teams leading at the half are 13 – 1 ATS, one SB was tied at half.

Teams that made a SB appearance and played again within 3 years are 9 –3 SU and ATS. However more recently, since 1984 teams making a second SB appearance in the 3-year window are 7 – 11 SU and 5 – 13 ATS.

Teams playing in their very first SB against an opponent with previous experience are 6 – 11 ATS.

Only 4 times has the line been below 7 pts since 1994 and in that time spans the underdogs are 6 – 10 ATS.

The stats go on and on and can easily justify taking either team. Every SB champion except 2007 NYG had a better offensive passer rating than a defensive passer rating. Every SB champion except the 2007 NYG had a higher average per pass attempt on offense and the average SB champion was 25 points better in offensive passer rating than it was on defensive passer rating.

When you look at scoreability, bendability, offense, defense and a few other categories NO is the team to take. However IND has the X factor that I cannot pin point, other than to say Peyton Manning is their X factor. Ask yourself this would you take NO – 2 or NO – 2.5? Is IND really the team that should be favored here?

My pick is NO + the points and I hope they go up, the more the better. GL to you whichever way you go.