Some Undervalued '09 CFB Football Teams
By Erik Scheponik
Here we are going to take a look at some CFB teams that appear to me to be headed in the right direction. I look for an improvement from last year or even recent years. I'm not focused on what bowl these teams can make or how many games they will win, I'm simply looking for teams that I think are "under the radar" and can be better that what the media and the betting public are expecting. These teams are listed in no particular order
Baylor- Robert Griffin is no secret to those who follow Big 12 football, and in fact ESPN's Bruce Feldman labled the Bears' sophomore signal caller the "fastest player to ever play QB in college football." Even more impressive than Griffin's obvious athleticism is the fact he went 209 passes without throwing an interception, a remarkable feat for a true freshman. Griffin is a future NFLer who showed poise and leadership beyond his years last season, and I expect him to step into the national spotlight in Art Briles' offense this year.
Briles is a fast-rising HC who won at the Texas HS ranks and then turned around a floundering Houston Cougars program. Briles has good rapport with the Texas prep coaches and he is improving the talent level with his recruiting at Baylor. It is conceivable that the Bears can make a South Florida-like rise over the next couple years, by simply picking up quality talent that Texas and Oklahoma miss out on, much like USF did in talent-rich Florida with players that the Florida Big 3 missed on. Now achieving Top 10 status like USF has done on a couple different occasions during the last two seasons may be difficult due to playing in a brutal Big 12 South, but I expect continued improvement.
The offense isn't all there is to like with the Bears, as the defense returns 8 starters, including 5 of the front 7 plus a 350 lb. Penn St. transfer at DT. This defense held foes to a very respectable 3.9 ypr in conference play. Now 3.9 ypr isn't an eye-popping number, but remember that conference was the Big 12, where they play football on ice. The Bears held the high-powered offenses Oklahoma, OSU, and Texas all to 4.1 ypr or less. With the absurd numbers that the Big 12's top offenses put up last season, it is even worth noting that the Bears did not give up 50 points in any game last season (every Big 12 team except Oklahoma and Texas did last season, and BU did a combined 5 times the previous two seasons), and gave up more than 500 yards only once (to the nation's most prolific offense, OU). Look for this athletic defense to continue to be suprisingly stingy, as the Bears ride Griffin to a successful ATS season, and possibly their first bowl game since 1994. The fact that their improvement last season (8-3 ATS) netted only 4 SU wins keeps them enough under the radar for us to pick our spots with them in '09.
Michigan- Even those of us who predicted an adjustment period for the Wolverine program under the leadership of Rich Rodriguez, didn't think UM would fall to an ugly 3-9, while missing their first bowl game in 33 years! Last year's failure no doubt left an ugly taste in the mouths of the sports betting public which I believe could lead to a serious turnaround this season. There is a ton of talent on hand as recruiting never really fell off under former HC Lloyd Carr, and the team has had a year to adjust the coaching change.
There were plenty of injuries last season, as well as a -10 mark in the all-important turnover margin category. This is worth noting because Rodriguez's teams netted a +84 mark over the last 6 years of his 7-year stint at West Virginia (all six seasons + in TM)! I expect a big turnaround in that number, and it is also noteworthy that WVU went only 3-8 in their first year under Rodriguez before winning at least 8 games in the last six seasons (at least 11 in the last 3). Rodriguez is a capable coach, and he really has a lot to prove after last season. The new DC is Greg Robinson, who also has a lot to prove after failing miserably as HC at Syracuse. Don't judge him by the effort though, as he has NFL experience as a DC, and he will be an upgrade over last year's DC, Scott Schaffer. With a little chip on their shoulder this season, look for this proven group of coaches to muster a big effort in '09.
10 returning offensive starters and a deep stable of RBs will make whoever wins the QB battle's (most likely true frosh. Forcier) job much easier than last season, and it would be a huge mistake to rate this year's offense of last year's performance. It would also be a huge mistake to give this team too many points at any point this season in conference play. With home games against OSU and PSU, it would not shock me if the Maize and Blue contends for a Big 10 title this season.
Arkansas- The Razorbacks play in the toughest division in the toughest conference in the country, the SEC West. While the Big 3 of Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU indeed appear to be among the elite teams in the nation, the Razorbacks return the most starters in the SEC (18) from a season in which they beat LSU, and lost a heartbreaker to Ole Miss by 2. Aside from those 18 starters, there are many other players that return with starting experience, as there were numerous injuries last season and new HC Bobby Petrino tinkered with many different lineups in his first year on the sideline. The offense welcomes in Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet, who played well in Ann Arbor in '07, but transferred out because of Rich Rodriguez's offense requiring more of a running threat at the position. He had last year to learn under the Petrino brothers (Bobby's brother Paul is the OC here), and he could be one of the nation's hidden gems this season, as the brothers always molded fine college QBs at Louisville.
The Hogs lost games last season to Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, and Florida, 4 of the nation's top 8-10 teams, and they draw Florida and Georgia fom the East this season. However, it is worth noting that they are one of only 5 SEC teams that were + yardage in conference play during the season. If you've been reading this blog, you can tell the emphasis I place on coaching, and although it is easy to root against Petrino, he and his brother are proven on the college level. His Lousiville teams very rarely threw in a clunker, and were extremely well coached in all 3 phases of the game. Because of the emergence of Ole Miss, and the high profile teams in this conference, Petrino's bunch is definitely under the radar right now. They will be getting some juicy points in conference play this season, and I don't believe there is quite the gap between them and the top 3 in their division that national media would lead us to believe. Major value here.
Stanford- Another well-coached team that returns a ton of experience is the Stanford Cardinal. Jim Harbaugh has done a fine job in two seasons here, as he walked into a bit of a mess left behind by Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris. He has improved the talent level quickly, and appears to be one of the bright, young gameday coaches in the college ranks. He pulled off the shocking upset of USC in the coliseum in 2007, and was tied with the Trojans late in the 3rd in the rematch last season. This year he returns one of the nation's most experienced teams, and that experience should be enough to lead the Cardinal to their first bowl game since 2001.
The Pac 10 will be a tougher conference than last season, but like Arkansas above, the Cardinal can be that team that many of the higher-ranked teams, as well as the betting public, overlook. RB Toby Gerhart is one of the toughest power runners in college football, and he and his talented backups will be relied upon to help ease redshirt fr. Luck into his role under center. Luck is extremely talented, and it should be fun to watch him develop under Harbaugh. Harbaugh got the most he could out of this year's backup, Pritchard, the last two seasons, and even though he is young, Luck will be an upgrade at the QB position.
Expect some of the nation's best special teams once again under Harbaugh, especially since this is a lot faster team than Stanford has had in previous years. The defense improved by 55 ypg last season, and is anchored by one of the nation's most underrated front sevens. Next year's team could even be better based on Harbaugh's recruiting, but with his coaching and the team's experience, this bunch should be high on football IQ and a tough out for anyone. They have 5 conference home games this season, and I would be very suprised, barring injury, if they do not make a bowl game in '09.