Spokane favored over Tampa Bay in Arena Bowl
By: Steve Makinen
The Spokane Shock won an Arena Football title last year, albeit in the AF2 league. After stepping up to the top level of indoor football competition this season, they are right back in the title game. However, being one of the AFL newcomers, Spokane will play host to Tampa Bay in Arena Bowl XXIII, the team with the most titles in the league’s history (five). Bookmaker.com experts aren’t putting a whole lot of stock into the experience aspect of the matchup, as they list the Shock as 3-1/2 point favorites with a total of 114. Let’s breakdown the key betting points for Friday’s championship contest.
The Tampa Bay Storm will be looking to win their sixth Arena Bowl title. The Storm punched their ticket to their eighth Arena Bowl in franchise history by winning a thriller over their arch rival, the Orlando Predators, in the American Conference Championship tilt.
Tampa Bay held a three score lead on Orlando in the third quarter, only to watch that lead disappear with just one minute to play. With the Storm trailing 56-55, QB Brett Dietz took over and brought the Storm to the go-ahead touchdown which put them up seven. Orlando brought the score within a point and had a chance to win, but Carlos Martinez's 49-yard field goal attempt as time expired fell just short.
Dietz was one of three quarterbacks in the league this year to throw for 5,000+ yards, as he finished with 5,034 and a franchise record 106 touchdown passes. In the playoffs, Dietz has a 14:2 TD:Int ratio.
The Storm owns the league’s #2 defense in points allowed, yielding just 50.8 PPG. They also have the second best offense in the American Conference, averaging 57.9 PPG.
Tampa Bay head coach Tim Marcum is going for his league-record eighth Arena Bowl championship this week. This is Marcum's eleventh appearance in the Arena Bowl overall and he has done so with three different teams Denver, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. As a franchise, the Storm are 5-1 in the title game with a 3-0 record on the road (two wins at Detroit and one at Iowa). This is their first Arena Bowl appearance since 2003 when they beat Arizona 43-29.
The Shock were just two scores shy of 1,000 points this year, averaging 61.8 PPG. Their defense was the second best in the National Conference at 52.7 PPG.
The Shock held off the team with the best offense in the history of the AFL in order to reach the Arena Bowl, topping Milwaukee 60-57 in another tight game. In fact, the two games last weekend set a record for the smallest combined margin of victory in the semifinals. Spokane is now 15-3 on the season, the AFL’s top mark, thus the reason they are hosting this contest. They are 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.8 PPG.
Regarding hosting of the Arena Bowl game, this will be the first time since the 18th title contest that is is played at a home arena. The last four have been held in neutral sites. In those previous 18 Arena Bowls, the home team was 9-9, however the host club is on a 5-game winning streak.
The Shock played in the af2 before stepping up to the AFL this season. They have played in three Arena Cup championships, winning in 2006 and 2009 but losing in 2008. Ironically, the only one of those three that was played in Spokane Arena was in 2008, their one defeat in the af2 title game. Spokane is the 18th different team to make it to the Arena Bowl . Those teams in their first Arena Bowl appearance are a combined 9-8. Most recently in 2008, Philadelphia won in its lone Arena Bowl appearance.
Quarterback Kyle Rowley was not a member of the 2008 or 2009 teams, but was named the 2006 Arena Cup Offensive Player of the Game after completing 29-of-36 for 264 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions in the Shock’s title win.
This from ArenaFan.com, some interesting situational records from the first 22 Arena Bowls. The record of the winning team is this in the ArenaBowl if....
SITUATIONAL RECORD OF WINNER NOTE
# Scores First 16-6
# Leading after 1st Qtr 12-4 There were four ABs ties
# Leading at Halftime 21-0 ArenaBowl X was tied at 28
# Leading after 3rd Qtr 22-0
There are two conflicting trends with unbeaten records that will be in play for each team concerning the pointspread:
# TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a win by 10 or less points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 61.0, OPPONENT 51.1 - (Rating = 2*)
# SPOKANE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season. The average score was SPOKANE 64.7, OPPONENT 44.9 - (Rating = 3*)
As indicated earlier, the total is set at 114 for the contest. In 10 previous Arena Bowls with posted totals, eight of them have gone UNDER. Most of the systems for this week’s game indicate a similar fate, including:
# Play Under - Any team when the total is greater than or equal to 110 (SPOKANE) - good offensive team - scoring 55 or more points/game. (180-108 over the last 10 seasons.) (62.5%, +61.2 units. Rating = 2*)
This will be the first ever meeting between these franchise, a rare but intriguing factor to consider when handicapping the contest. The only other time that happened was in 1996, when the Storm went into Iowa and beat the Barnstormers for the Arena Bowl X title. Kickoff for Friday is set for 8:00 PM ET, and live action will be brought to you by the NFL Network. Kurt Warner will be an analyst in the booth for the game. Get more key betting info on this contest on the GAME MATCHUP page.