Sports Book Industry Report - Colts come through in big spot for books
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS - After the favorites went 7-4 against-the-spread in the first two waves of NFL games on Sunday, the Las Vegas sports books had banked themselves a nice pile of cash from bettors choosing wrong more than right. But there was still one more game to go between the Broncos and Colts, a game that had more betting action than any other on the day and a game that could wipe out the little nest egg the books had built if it went the way bettors thought it would.
After watching the Broncos average 46 points a game while going 6-0 on the year, with all six games going OVER the total, 75 percent of the bets came in on Denver. Additionally, a large portion of bettors figured that if Denver covered the 7-point spread, the game would also go OVER the total, making the popular 13-to-5 payout risk loom large for the books.
Everything that had built up through the grind on Sunday between 11 games could have been given back on the outcome of one game. Broncos and OVER was the worst scenario, Colts and UNDER would have been the best. The Colts' 39-33 victory still sent the game OVER the total, making winners of the majority that didn't get greedy, but the decision still proved to be a profitable one for the books.
"We needed the Colts bad tonight," said LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay. "The Broncos to the OVER would have been a disaster for us. It was our biggest handled game of the day. But I will say we were fortunate our risk going into the Broncos game wasn't higher for us, only because of what happened in the earlier games. Maybe the Chiefs helped out on that end."
The Chiefs were able to withstand a solid outing from Texans quarterback Case Keenum who was suiting up in a regular season game for the first time in his career. Kansas City won the game 17-16, but the Texans got the money as they covered the 6-point spread, much to the dismay of the crowd who all seemed to have a wager on the Chiefs.
"The Chiefs victory formation was outstanding to see." Kornegay said in reference to Alex Smith kneeling down in the final two minutes after the Chiefs had just recovered a fumble on the Texans one-yard line. "We needed the Texans pretty good, and our entire crowd seemed to have the Chiefs. When Keenum fumbled the ball at the 1-yard line at the end, the crowd went nuts, and then when the kneel came, they went nuts again."
Kansas City is now the only 7-0 team in the league after the Broncos lost, but fell to 4-3 ATS. Because of the kneel down, the game also stayed UNDER the total (39.5) which was the sixth time in seven games the Chiefs have stayed UNDER.
Bettors weren't able to gain any momentum right out of the gate as the favorites went 4-4 ATS in the morning games with public favorites like the Patriots, Lions and Dolphins all not only failing to cover the number, but losing outright.
"We split our two biggest early games of the day, with the Bengals being a good decision for us, while getting beat with the Buccaneers," Kornegay said.
"I don't know what it was about the Lions that everyone liked so much today, but everyone seemed to be on them. Maybe it was just laying less than a field goal at home with them, a place they had fared well at so far this season."
The Lions had covered both their home games this season while the Bengals failed to cover any of their three road games thus far. So, naturally, the Bengals win 27-24 as the road dog.
As for the Buccaneers, professional bettors had sided with them at books around town taking +7, and when the game kicked off, most books had the Falcons -6.5. The public didn't seem to care what the number was and kept betting Atlanta, and were eventually rewarded with the Falcons winning 31-23 in their most complete game of a disappointing season.
The game that threw everyone for a loop was the two terrible defenses of Dallas and Philadelphia playing a low-scoring game with the Cowboys coming out on top, 17-3, as a 3-point underdog.
"The Cowboys game was balanced evenly for us," Kornegay said. "We lost a little with the Cowboys covering, but did very well with the game staying UNDER the total (56)."
The Cowboys are now 6-1 ATS on the season, and with that type of success rate, they'll surely find themselves being backed by the public in the near future. The Chargers covered at Jacksonville, taking their season mark against the number to 5-1-1 ATS, which will also endear themselves to the public.
At the same time, the Jags scored six points on Sunday giving them a whopping 11 points total in three home games this season, a figure that will continue to have bettors betting against them no matter who they are playing against. Their 19 points scored at Denver two weeks ago, while covering +28, doesn't hold much weight anymore, especially after Denver has failed to cover their past three games now.
The books were fortunate that the public wasn't all over the Chargers on Sunday, thanks in part to the feeling that Jacksonville might be improving. But there will be no holding them back this week at the bet windows as the Jags face the 49ers, where laying 17-points will seem like nothing, a mere formality in their eyes to making easy money. The 49ers have their fans in the sports books back after covering four straight and scoring 31 points or more in all four.