Sports Book Industry Report
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS - Las Vegas bettors have been waiting eight NFL Sundays to finally get their rhythm going where they could do some damage to the sports book payout charts. For the first seven weeks of the season, they kept missing the big one. Listening to any Joe Public on a Monday the past few weeks, you would hear something like, "The damn Patriots screwed me" or "The Broncos lost my five-teamer."
But on Sunday, that all changed, as just about every one of Joe Public’s team covered the number, sending the sports books to their worst Sunday of the season, highlighted by the big blow of the Packers’ 44-31 win at Minnesota Sunday night.
“The public teams came through today,” said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. “They had the 49ers, Broncos, Saints, Patriots and even the Bengals all come in early for them (before the Packers decision), not only with parlays (off the board), and parlay cards, but also with teasers.”
When all those parlays, paying out at odds of 10-to-1, 20-to-1, 40-to-1 and higher, came through, all most books could do was feel fortunate that at least they had beat up the sharp money, and the sharps took a pounding as the week's line movement attests.
“There wasn’t any one big decision that stood out, other than the Packers game,” said LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay, “but the public went 7-1 against us. All the big parlay games hit for them. I think just about every division leader covered the spread.”
Yes, it was apparently as easy as looking at the NFL standings and taking the team leading their division. The Cowboys who still lead the NFC East with a 4-4 record after their 31-30 loss at Detroit, covered +3 and are now 7-1 against the spread this season, a stat Joe Public likes to reference.
Some of the biggest sharp plays of the week were on the Vikings, Redskins and Bills, and all three went down in flames. The Packers dropped from a 10-point favorite on Tuesday to -7 by kickoff, and rolled to an easy win. The public never cared what the number was – they loved Green Bay no matter what sharp money said. And to make matters worse for the books, the majority also parlayed the Packers to the OVER (47.5), which also got there easily and paid out at 13-to-5 odds.
The Saints went from an opening line of -12.5 down to -10.5, and rolled to a 35-17 win, which makes them 4-0 against the spread at home.
The Broncos hadn’t covered in three weeks and were coming off their first loss of the season, at Indianapolis the week before. The opening number of -13.5 was definitely inflated, and sharp money on the Redskins bet it down to 12.5. Again, the public didn’t care, bet the Broncos and OVER, and collected at 13-to-5 – even higher when bettors linked some of their other winners into the mix.
The total in the Broncos game was also the source of many big parlay jackpots hitting in the first two waves of games Sunday.
“The two totals that really hurt us were the Cowboys-Lions and Broncos-Redskins games going OVER,” said McCormick. “We just got buried on them, especially the Broncos game. We had gone from 58.5 to 60, and they were still betting the OVER.”
The Cowboys total went from 51 to 52.5 by kickoff, and for three quarters, with Dallas up 13-7, it looked like the bettors would be on the losing side. But then the two teams went into a furious pace in the fourth quarter, scoring 41 points and sending the game way OVER. The Lions are now 4-0 to the OVER at home this season.
A similar thing occurred in Denver, where the sharps looked right as the Redskins played the Broncos tough to a 7-7 tie at halftime. Washington even outscored the Broncos, 14-7, in the third quarter. That‘s only 35 total points through three with a miracle needed to go OVER, and that’s exactly what the public got. Denver put up 31 points by themselves the rest of the way, and got the easy OVER. The Broncos have now gone OVER in all eight of their games this season.
Sharp money wanted no part of the Jaguars, but the public loved some 49ers laying 16 points in London. With their 42-10 win, the 49ers have now scored 31 points or more in their last five games and have covered all five, the type of numbers that are hard to ignore by anyone, sharp or public.
A day like this was bound to happen because they always do. Sports books sustained a disaster last November that saw them lose more on one Sunday due to parlays than they ever had on any day in state history.
And after getting beat up for seven weeks, it was Joe Public’s turn, right?
“Hold on now,” Kornegay said, trying to set the record straight. “We had been doing well on Sundays this season, but on the isolated games (Thursday and Monday nights), we’ve been getting killed, and the risk on those games sometimes outweighs what we we’ve won on those Sundays. Really, I think we’re like 1-6 on Monday night games this season.“
Kornegay isn’t looking for sympathy, and knows no one will give him any, but the LVH, like every other book in the city, will be in horrible shape if the Seahawks win by 13 points or more Monday night at St. Louis. A bad Sunday never ends on Sunday; it just carries over into Monday, and the risk almost always goes to the favorite.
“It’s one of those things where bettors like to throw the Monday night game onto parlays when making them on Sunday as an add-on to their ticket,” Kornegay said. “When all those teams cover on Sunday, there’s a huge lingering effect on Monday.”
So a big congratulations goes out the bettors who did well on Sunday – well-earned and long awaited – and a big good luck to the sports books as their hopes to avoid going 1-7 for the season on Monday nights rest on Kellen Clemens.