Sports Book Report
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- The Denver Broncos hadn’t covered a game through their first three games of the season, so it would have been understandable if the betting public was soured on one of their favorite teams for its Week 5 home game against the Arizona Cardinals.
But that wasn’t the case. In fact, it was quite the opposite.
There was a family reunion of sorts at the bet windows, as the Broncos rewarded bettors for their faith with an impressive aerial display in a 41-20 win, easily covering the 8-point spread.
“Broncos were a big loser for us. It was our biggest decision of the day, and then the Chargers were No. 2, and we lost them both,” said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook executive director Jay Kornegay. “We built a nice cushion in the morning games, but then we gave it all back – and then some – in the afternoon. The late games with Denver and San Diego, and then even quite a bit of support for the Chiefs did us in. That’s three out of three in the afternoon.”
In the early games, favorites went 5-3-1 ATS, but the sports books got plenty of relief when two of the most popular morning plays – New Orleans (-11) and Dallas (-5) – won but failed to cover.
“We didn’t have anything big in the morning, just lots of little decisions,” Kornegay said. “We did well with the Bills coming back (to win and cover in Detroit), but it would have been much better if the Saints would have lost outright. They didn‘t cover, but still won on the big money-line parlays and teasers.”
The Buccaneers were coming off an impressive 27-24 win at Pittsburgh under newly-inserted QB Mike Glennon, and they gave the Saints all they could handle at the Superdome, sending the game into overtime but eventually losing 37-31 on an 18-yard touchdown run by Khiry Robinson. The result showed up as an immediate winner for the books, but the effects from teaser and money-line liability wouldn’t be felt until the afternoon, where the game was paired with big favorites like Denver and San Diego (-7).
The Chargers are fast becoming a team the public feels it can trust every week, as they upped their record to 4-1 straight up with a 31-0 home route of the Jets. Best of all, the Chargers are now 5-0 ATS, and they’ll continue to be a popular play throughout the season, or at least until they stop covering.
But what side will the public play when the Chargers are 6-point dogs at Denver on Oct. 23?
The Chiefs, another AFC West team, are also gaining some trust with bettors. They covered three straight prior to Sunday’s game at San Francisco. The 49ers opened as 6.5-point favorites, but were pushed down by bettors to as low as -4.5 before finally closing at most books at -5, and the game would land 5, 22-17. However, most parlay cards, which the public loves to play, had the Chiefs either +6.5 or +5.5, making K.C. a winner.
“The Chiefs-49ers game was kind of a split with the public for us,“ said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “No matter who covered, that game was going to bad for us just because of all the Broncos and Chargers action. The late three-game parlays had Broncos, Chargers and either one of the sides in the Chiefs-49ers game.”
That’s a lot of 6-to-1 payouts, the type that can swallow a sports book’s nest egg built from the morning games.
When the Sunday night game came around, the underdog couldn’t get the books out of the red on the day. That’s not the books’ typical scenario.
“Patriots and UNDER was our best scenario,“ said Kornegay, “but it’s not the type of win that could save our day. It wasn‘t too big of a decision for us because many opinions were split on the game.”
In any normal Bill Belichick-Tom Brady year, the public would have been dead on with the Patriots at home. But despite New England riding a 10-game home winning streak and being offered as a home dog for the first time since 2005, the public still found plenty of reasons to support the Bengals (-2.5), who were 3-0 ATS this season. In the end, it was the Patriots putting up a 43-17 win in typical Belichick-Brady fashion.
Favorites went 7-4-2 ATS on Sunday, with only two of the underdogs winning outright (Buffalo New England). Even though the day was pretty much a wash for most of the books, we can still call the bettors victorious on Sunday, thanks mostly to Denver and San Diego.
Favorites Cash in Week 5
By Matty Simo
VegasInsider.com
The New England Patriots were just one of two underdogs to win straight-up in Sunday’s Week 5 NFL betting action, and they were the only one who helped sportsbooks with a decisive 43-17 victory against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots needed to come through and make a statement to prove they are still legitimate playoff contenders, and that’s exactly what they did in knocking off the league’s last unbeaten team in the Bengals as 2.5-point home dogs.
“I thought that line was a little out of whack,” said Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations. “I mean it’s easy to say after the fact, but I thought the line was wrong. This Cincinnati team, I like them, they’re a good team, good offensive weapons. But anytime you’re getting the Patriots with points (at home), it’s got to be a double-up, don’t you think?
“There was some moneyline (on New England), we were trying to attract that. But we didn’t have to give too much away. People were saying that if they were going to be within the two, they were probably going to win the game.”
That they did, and the team the Patriots play next week just happened to be the other underdog to win in Week 5. The Buffalo Bills topped the Detroit Lions 17-14 as 4.5-point road dogs with new starting quarterback Kyle Orton leading the way. However, bettors were all over the Bills, moving the line down 2.5 points from the opening number of Detroit -7.
“I know we were heavy on the Bills,” said Avello.
New England opened as a 3-point road favorite at Buffalo next week. The Patriots have won 20 of the last 21 meetings between the AFC East teams, but they are just 2-7 against the spread in their past nine games as road chalk. They are also 0-4 ATS in their past four away from home vs. divisional opponents, losing three of those SU.
A couple other NFC teams could have helped the books out by losing, but big public teams failing to cover the spread still busted parlay cards and allowed them to make some money off bettors. The New Orleans Saints needed overtime to top the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37-31 as 11-point home favorites while the Dallas Cowboys also had to go to OT to beat the Houston Texans 20-17 as six-point home chalk.
“The Saints game wasn’t bad,” Avello said. “It could have been a lot better if they would have lost the game straight-up. Dallas game was ok, balanced on that. The Cowboys continue to play okay.”
One game that did not turn out okay for the books was the Denver Broncos blowing out the Arizona Cardinals 41-20 as 8.5-point home favorites. The betting public loved the Broncos to hand the Cardinals their first loss, moving the line a full point from the opener of Denver -7.5.
But bettors got some help in the second half of that game when Arizona starting quarterback Drew Stanton was forced to leave with a concussion. The Cardinals actually pulled within 24-20 with 3:03 left in the third quarter when Stanton’s replacement Logan Thomas found running back Andre Ellington on a lucky short pass play that turned into an 81-yard touchdown thanks to Ellington’s fancy footwork.
The rookie Thomas – who entered the season as the third-stringer behind Stanton and injured Week 1 starter Carson Palmer – did not play well the rest of the way and helped Bronco backers beat the books. Denver QB Peyton Manning earlier topped the 50,000-yard passing plateau and was left with too much time and too many possessions to get his team an easy 17 fourth-quarter points and cover the spread for the first time this season.
“They lost the second string and then the third string just was lost,” Avello said of Thomas. “They never had a chance with the third string. You can’t make lines on things that could possibly happen in the game. You can’t make lines on that.”