Rams, Bengals save day early for Vegas books
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- The underdogs were barking loud in Week 11 of the NFL season, which helped Las Vegas sports books to a decent day, one week after getting absolutely crushed by many of those same favorites that helped them out by losing on Sunday. Favorites went only 4-8 ATS on Sunday, and the popular OVER wager went 3-9.
“The Broncos and Saints losing outright was the beginning to a good day,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “Those two were the most one-sided on parlays, and then we got the bonus of them losing which killed a bunch of teasers and big money-line favorite parlays, and we‘d find out later how important those games really were to us.“
The Saints opened as 6.5-point home favorites over the Bengals, and the spread was a steady -7 for most of the week. But a half-hour before kickoff, in addition to all the public parlays (bet at at 5-to-1 ratio in ticket count), the books got some large action on the Saints, pushing the number to as high as -8.5. Even with the high number, there were very few Bengals takers after bettors watched QB Andy Dalton implode last week against the Browns. Plus, the public thought there was no way the Saints could lose two straight at home. But the Bengals stifled the Saints offense all afternoon in a 27-10 win. The 4-6 Saints are still tied for first-place with the Falcons in the NFC South.
The Broncos sat as 10-point road favorites for most of the week, but dropped to as low as -8 at a few books as sharp money took the home dog. Prior to Sunday, the Broncos-to-OVER two-team parlay had gone 5-1 over the past six weeks, and bettors were riding that gravy train again on Sunday, but the Rams put in a spirited home effort behind great defense, the running of Tre Mason and error-free leadership of quarterback Shaun Hill. It was only the third time in 10 games this season a Denver game had stayed UNDER the total and only the fourth time in the last 18 instances that Peyton Manning didn‘t cover against a losing team. The Rams have now beaten Seattle, San Francisco and Denver over the past five weeks, matching a feat the Colts accomplished last season.
“We were lucky to have the Saints and Broncos lose, because the Packers game really flattened us out,” said Osborne. “I‘d hate to see the results from everything if we didn‘t get those two go our way early, because everyone was on the Packers (-5.5) to the OVER (54.5).”
For the second consecutive week, Green Bay scored over 50 points at home in a 53-20 rout of the Eagles. In their last seven games now, the Packers-to-OVER two-team parlay has gone 6-1, and they’ve gone OVER the total in all seven. This is a team the public can trust, and they’re going to keep riding them, as they should, until they lose. And even when Green Bay fails to cover, they’ll be right back on them again the next week.
“Fortunately, bettors were kind of torn between what side to take in the two other late games, unlike last week when they were all-in with the favorites,“ said Osborne. “The parlay action was slightly shaded to the Cardinals, but we had big action with the straight bets on the Lions side, and it was the same story with the Chargers, where the sharps were on Oakland a little bit.”
The Cardinals upped their NFL-best record to 9-1 with a 14-6 win at home against the Lions and improved to 8-2 against-the-spread, tied for best in the league with Kansas City, who beat Seattle in an earlier game. The Cardinals opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but Detroit closed at -1.
“Heading into the night game, we were okay with action split between the Colts and Patriots -- shaded to the Patriots -- but our worst scenario was Patriots to the OVER,” Osborne said.
The Patriots thumped the Colts, 42-20, the third straight time Tom Brady has beaten Andrew Luck by 21 points or more. It was the sixth straight meeting the two teams have gone OVER the total, although the highest total on the board (58) needed Rob Gronkowski’s 26-yard TD reception with 6:46 left to get it OVER.
Both teams are now 8-2 to the OVER this season, and it was the Pats’ seventh straight OVER. The Patriots also hit the two-team side-to-total parlay for their many supporters for the fifth time in six weeks.
“When you look at how many favorites lost or didn’t cover and see so many games stay UNDER on Sunday, you’d think that we would have done much better, but it was basically two games -- the Patriots and Packers -- that took a huge bite out of the day,” Osborne said.
Osborne says he doesn’t have too much risk heading into tonight’s Monday night game, but the Pittsburgh native will be rooting against his squad. “We’re going to need Tennessee and UNDER.”