SPORTSBOOKS REALLY SWEATING THE BIG COLLEGE FAVORITES
BY NICK BOGDANOVICH
There's been a recent trend in college football that the sportsbooks absolutely HATE!
The big powers are winning by big margins almost every time they take the field. The public loves betting on big name teams, and they typically lay whatever the spread is without thinking. It doesn't matter to them if it's -10, -20, or minus whatever. They figure the best teams are going to win big...and they want to spend the day doing chest bumps with their buddies after every touchdown.
In past years, this approach has cost the public a fortune. What the networks call ...BCS Chaos" has usually meant big name teams LOSING OUTRIGHT as favorites in the final weeks of the season. The public expects all the favorites to win big. Instead, many favorites barely survive nailbiters or get knocked off.
This past Saturday was a microcosm of the 2008 season for sportsbooks.
OHIO STATE started the day by crushing Michigan. Some veterans thought 20 points was way too high for this storied rivalry. You're supposed to throw out the stats and the records when Ohio State and Michigan play, right? Wrong! Ohio State was dominant all day on the way to a 42-7 victory.
PENN STATE followed that up with a blowout of Michigan State in what amounted to the Big 12 championship game. Michigan State may have had trouble getting motivated because a victory would have just sent Ohio State to the Rose Bowl instead of Penn State. Still, many expected the dog here to show up with a chance to share the title on the trophy. If anything, it was more one-sided than Michigan/Ohio State! Penn State jumped ahead early and never looked back in its 49-18 rout.
UTAH was facing BYU in a late afternoon rivalry game. The Utes would finish the year undefeated and earn a BCS bid with a victory. We've seen time and time again that something like that is the kiss of death in college football! The underdog rival plays great, and the overconfident favorite bites the dust. It looked like this might happen for awhile. But, the Utes pulled away in the second half to a 48-24 victory as a 7-point favorite. Note that Boise State and Ball State were mid-major teams that also stayed undefeated this week without losing against the spread. Both won by 7 points while laying either 6.5 or 7 points. Sportsbooks had to pay out money to anyone who bet the favorites at 6.5...and didn't pocket much from anybody because everyone either pushed or won!
OKLAHOMA wrapped up a sad Saturday for the books with a 65-21 win over Texas Tech as a 7-point favorite. This was never a game. It's hard to know why Tech even made the trip if they weren't going to show up for their biggest game of the year! Everyone bet the favorite and the Over here, making it a bad night indeed for Vegas and Reno. The fact that it was a night game hurt even more because people had all day to bet it. Everyone who won early reinvested on OU and the Over. People who needed a bailout did their bridge jumper bets here and won.
All four of the highlighted teams were in the top 10 in the polls. There weren't any top 10 favorites who failed to cover their spreads (note that Texas and USC were idle, while Florida played off the board against the Citadel).
Ohio State/Michigan started at 9 a.m. local time. Oklahoma/Texas Tech ended after 9 p.m. local time. Long day for the sportsbooks, but a great day for the squares.
Of course, this is just a continuation of what's been happening of late. Look at Florida. They weren't on the board this week. In their recent board games:
Florida (-26) beat Arkansas 38-6
Florida (-7) beat LSU 51-21
Florida (-25) beat Kentucky 63-5
Florida (-7) beat Georgia 49-10
Florida (-24) beat Vanderbilt 42-10
Florida (-21) beat South Carolina 56-6
That's a 6-0 ATS run for the Gators...and the public loves betting Florida because they know head coach Urban Meyer tries to cover spreads. He didn't have to try very hard here because every game was a blowout!
Florida was 6-0 ATS during that stretch.
If you added 10 points to every line, they would have been 4-2 ATS. Think about that for a second. Those lines would have looked crazy if they were 10 points higher (laying 17 to LSU and Georgia, laying 31 to South Carolina), yet the Gators still would have covered two thirds of the time.
If you had added 28 points to the spread, Florida still would have been 3-3 ATS! The "break even" mark is about four touchdowns higher than the actual spreads!
The public is making a milling with the Gators. And, that's not out of character with what Ohio State, Penn State, and Oklahoma did this past Saturday. Those games never even got interesting.
Here are the games Vegas will be sweating this week:
THURSDAY
Texas (-34) vs. Texas A&M: Texas has a high powered offense, while Texas A&M has been allowing huge numbers to everyone they've faced. The Aggies just got crushed by Baylor! Oddsmakers have posted a very high number here to discourage action on the Longhorns. Will it be high enough?
FRIDAY
Boise State (-19) vs. Fresno State: Fresno State has looked horrible ever since losing a heartbreaker to Wisconsin. And, Wisconsin turned out to be pretty bad themselves (did you see they almost lost to Cal Poly San Luis Obispo on Saturday?!). Boise State is having a great year, and gets to play this one on the fabled blue turf. You know who the public wants to bet on. Will the high line in terms of series history discourage them?
SATURDAY
Alabama (-14) vs. Auburn: Alabama isn't a blowout team because they're great on defense rather than offense. It's are to see a highly ranked team laying a reasonable line. It's not like the public will be lined up to bet on struggling Auburn though.
Texas Tech (-20) vs. Baylor: Everyone will see this as a potential blood bath, with Tech trying to make up for their bad showing at Oklahoma. You never know with Baylor. They almost upset Missouri, and covered against Texas. Maybe the Bears will show up here. The sportsbooks will be rooting for them unless the sharps come in heavy on the dog. That's more likely with surging Baylor than with some of these other opponents.
Florida (-15) at Florida State: You know who Nevada will be rooting for. The Big 12 will be rooting for Florida State too because an upset might set the stage for two Big 12 teams to play for the championship. That's probably a longshot. The Gators are playing great, and this is already a high line for the series history at this site.
Oklahoma (-7.5) at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State has sprung upsets against Oklahoma teams who were just as good as this one if not better. Sportsbooks will be rooting for that to happen again because the public now sees Oklahoma as another Florida. You bet, you win.
USC (-29) vs. Notre Dame: The Trojans have been a money burner for a few years now. They haven't been covering spreads consistently since Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush left. The public still bets them like they're an NFL team playing high schoolers. That will happen again here, particularly with Notre Dame losing to Syracuse last week after barely beating Navy. What would USC be laying at home against Syracuse or Navy?