Sugar Bowl News and Notes

Sugar Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

The Big Ten and the SEC usually compete in the Outback and Capital One Bowls. They normally don’t meet in the Sugar Bowl, but in the first week of 2011, that’s exactly what will happen inside the Louisiana Superdome.

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Arkansas Razorbacks have two very talented coaches with very different demeanors. Buttoned-down Jim Tressel goes up against the fiery and restless Bobby Petrino as the Big Ten takes on the SEC in a big-boy kind of ballgame.

The Buckeyes went 11-1 during the regular season, which is never anything to sneeze at. Yes, Ohio State got lucky in a close win at Iowa, but it still remains that Tressel’s troops made just enough plays when they had to. Other Big Ten teams like Iowa and Illinois couldn’t capitalize on OSU’s gaffes, and the Buckeyes – to their credit – were able to seal the deal. Ohio State’s defense proved to be its typically stout and solid self from September through November; Wisconsin gouged OSU in the Buckeyes’ one loss, but that was a noticeable aberration in 2010. Ohio State didn’t allow any other Big Ten opponent to score more than 17 points, due to a brawny and resolute front seven that smothered every opposing running back who tried to run between the tackles.

The Razorbacks lost their two biggest games of the year to Alabama and Auburn, but they took care of business against everyone else. Arkansas played flinty and determined football under pressure down the stretch, taking control in the month of November. The Hogs won at South Carolina and turned back LSU while also escaping Mississippi State in a tense overtime thriller. Quarterback Ryan Mallett – who will oppose OSU signal caller Terrelle Pryor in this Sugar Bowl – found a way to succeed even without his very best receiver, Greg Childs, who got injured in late October just before the final leg of the 2010 campaign. Arkansas spread the ball around to several different pass catchers and used the power running of Knile Davis, the X-factor for the Hogs’ offense, to keep defenses off balance. The end result was a 10-2 record and the school’s first-ever BCS bowl appearance.

The emergent story in this game – one that couldn’t have been pointed to in the 48 hours after this matchup was made official – is that Petrino, the Arkansas coach, just inked a seven-year extension with an eye-popping $18 million buyout, an eye-catching number to be sure. Petrino has been the Larry Brown of football, a nomadic coach who never feels very settled in one place and is always itching to move elsewhere. Petrino has cast a sideways glance at other attractive programs, flirting with competitors so that he can leverage his own salary and play the games that other football coaches play at this time of year. Petrino, as you might know, courted LSU and Auburn while heading the Louisville Cardinals in the early part of the past decade. He then, naturally, bolted for the Atlanta Falcons but then ducked out before the end of his first (and only) NFL season to join Arkansas in the middle of the night. Now, however, his huge new deal should definitely keep Petrino in Fayetteville for at least the next three seasons. Now that Arkansas has its coach locked down and bolted into his chair, his seat of authority, how will the Hogs respond? Moreover, how will Petrino himself respond, now that he’s no longer tempted to wander the college football landscape? Ohio State and Tressel are profiles in unchanging constancy and durability; now that Arkansas is doing things to change its image, can the Hogs bring the heat against the Buckeyes in New Orleans? It will be interesting to find out.

Ryan Mallett needs to win this game for Arkansas; Terrelle Pryor ultimately needs to avoid losing it for Ohio State. Tressel versus Petrino is a fabulous coaching matchup and a connoisseur’s delight, but the main question is if Ohio State’s offense can score big and overpower the Razorbacks’ defense. Arkansas won’t mind putting on its track shoes, so OSU needs to find a sledgehammer in time for this fascinating joust in early January.

STAT PACK

Ohio State

Passing Yards Per Game: 229.2 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 55)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 219.7 (Ranking: 14)

Points Per Game: 39.4 (Ranking: 11)

Points Allowed Per Game: 13.3 (Ranking: 3)

Arkansas

Passing: 338.4 ypg (Ranking: 3)

Rushing: 150.8 ypg (Ranking: 65)

Scoring: 37.3 ppg (Ranking: 16)

Scoring Defense: 22.8 ppg (Ranking: 44)

Sugar Bowl Preview
By Judd Hall

What is a bettor to do when it comes to the Sugar Bowl? Do you bet on experience or do you side with history? That is what gamblers will have to debate when Ohio State (11-1 straight up, 9-2-1 against the spread) takes on the Razorbacks from the Louisiana Superdome on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. EST.

The Buckeyes are making their sixth straight trip to a BCS bowl and ninth overall, both marks are the best amongst FBS schools. So this is a team that knows how to play on the sport’s biggest stage.

As storied as Ohio State has been under Jim Tressel’s tenure, they have also been derided as something of a fraud. That tends to happen when you get embarrassed by Florida and LSU in BCS title games. It also doesn’t help that the Bucks have gone 0-9 SU and ATS in their nine bowl games against teams from the SEC.

The betting shops have installed the Buckeyes as 3½-point favorites with a total of 56½. The Razorbacks can be had for a plus-135 (risk $100 to win $135) return for the outright victory.

Arkansas (11-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) doesn’t have the BCS pedigree of its opponent for this game, making its first appearance at this level. But they have to like the history that is dogging its foe in New Orleans for the game.

The Razorbacks have a lot more to like about their chances other than the monkey that is on OSU’s back. This is a team that has one of the more efficient offenses in the college ranks, coming in at No. 10 nationally in total offense with 489.3 yards per game.

It could be argued that Bobby Petrino’s club lives and dies by the pass. But that isn’t such a bad thing with Ryan Mallett running the show. The former Michigan signal caller is behind just Auburn’s Cam Newton and Boise State’s Kellen Moore in passing efficiency with a 170.53 rating. That rating plays right into the fact that he’s completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 3,592 yards with 30 touchdowns to just 11 picks.

Mallett is also one of the more democratic passers in the nation with five different receivers snaring at least 31 passes this season. Jarius Wright (38 receptions, 718 yards, 4 touchdowns) and Joe Adams (41 catches, 693 yards, 5 touchdowns) are the top yardage eaters for the Hogs. And look for Cobi Hamilton to get into the end zone as much as possible (6 TDs) with Greg Childs long gone from the lineup. We should also watch for D.J. Williams, who is a tight end that can give teams plenty of matchup issues. But they’re going to be facing on e of the best pass defenses in the country as the Buckeyes give up just 156.3 YPG through the air, which ranks fourth in the FBS.

Ohio State can’t focus on stopping just the passing game for the Razorbacks. That’s because Knile Davis has become a force in the backfield, gaining 622 yards and seven scores over his last four games of the regular season. The odds are pretty darn good that we’ll see a healthy dose of Davis in this game as he was averaging 23.3 carries in those games. Of course, he’s taking on a rush defense in OSU’s that is giving up just 94.3 YPG on the ground.

Something else the Hogs will have to contend with is the Buckeyes don’t let many teams move the chains on them. One look at the opposition’s 30.1 success rate on third down will make that fairly evident.

When it comes to Ohio State and moving the ball on offense, you’re talking about Terrelle Pryor. The dual-threat quarterback is 11th amongst all signal callers with a 157.98 rating. Pryor has connected on 65.8 of his pass attempts for 2,551 yards with 25 scores and 11 interceptions, while rushing for another 496 yards and four touchdowns.

What’s different between Mallett and Pryor is that the Buckeyes’ QB is focusing much of his attention on just DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher. That pair accounted for 102 catches for 1,667 yards and 16 touchdowns. Pryor and the OSU coaching staff must find a way to add some variety to that part of the game. Arkansas has a defense that is giving up just 182.3 passing YPG this year, which ranks them 16th nationally.

Dan Herron really pushed his name to the top of the depth chart after racking up 187 rushing yards against Penn State and 168 yards in the win over archrival Michigan to close the regular season. And he could see his number called plenty in this contest with a Razorback rush defense that allows 157.4 YPG.

While things are strong on the field for the Buckeyes, the off-field stuff emerging recently could topple the team. Pryor, Herron, Posey, Mike Adams and Solomon Thomas were all suspended for the first five games of 2011 for violations of the NCAA’s preferential treatment bylaws. Yet all of these players will be on the field at the Superdome, defying all sorts of common sense by both the school and the governing body.

We’ve seen teams struggling with personnel issues already this bowl season with West Virginia, Maryland and Miami. So how can this affect Ohio State as they gear up for this battle?

“Ohio State's situation is unique because of the "future" suspension angle,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Bruce Marshall. “We have seen some team famously rally from suspension distractions in bowl games before, no better example than Lou Holtz' Arkansas, minus suspended RBs Ben Cowins and Michael Forrest and WR Danny Bobo, and with a threat of a boycott by the black Razorbacks players, nonetheless circled the wagons for the Jan. 1, 1978 Orange Bowl vs. Oklahoma, which was on the verge of sewing up the national title. The pointspread ballooned to 15 points, but Holtz had the last laugh, with unheralded RB Roland Sales coming to the rescue in a shock 31-6 Arkansas win. But the ‘future’ suspension with OSU is almost singular; cannot recall a similar example. Although given the distractions involved, it can hardly be considered a positive.”

Regardless of the issues that future suspensions will have, we’ll have some good information to take into this game for betting.

Arkansas has been a great underdog wager with Petrino running the show, going 6-12 SU and 11-7 ATS. However, the Hogs are 0-3 SU and ATS since 1999 against teams from the Big Ten.

Ohio State has posted a quality 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS record when listed as no more than a 3 ½-point favorite over the past five seasons.

Both teams have been great against bowl teams this season: Ohio State is 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS, while Arkansas is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS.

Favorites have gone 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 editions of the Sugar Bowl. The ‘under’ is 6-4 during that stretch.

vegasinsider.com

Sugar Bowl Betting Preview: Ohio State vs Arkansas
By: Michael Robinson

The Ohio State Buckeyes look to gain some respect for the Big Ten, and themselves, when they meet the SEC Arkansas Razorbacks in Tuesday night’s Sugar Bowl.

Kickoff from the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans will be 5:30 p.m. (PT) and broadcast on ESPN. Weather is not an issue in the dome. This is the first meeting ever between the schools.

Bookmaker.com has BCS No. 6 Ohio State as three-point favorites (minus 115) with a total of 5 ½-points. Both teams are among the nation’s leaders against the spread.

The SEC is 3-0 straight-up and ATS against the Big Ten this bowl season. Alabama versus Michigan State (49-7) and Mississippi State over Michigan (52-14) were blowouts. Florida broke open a close game late against Penn State (37-24). The Big Ten lost all five of its New Year’s Day games (going 2-3 ATS).

Ohio State (11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) is dealing with a big controversy. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor, running back Dan Herron, wide receiver DeVier Posey, left tackle Mike Adams and defensive end Solomon Thomas were all recently disciplined by the NCAA for receiving improper benefits.

The four starters and one reserve (Thomas) are eligible for the Sugar Bowl, but will be suspended for the first five games of next season. Coach Jim Tressel made all five promise they would return next season in order to play on Tuesday, although there’s nothing to guarantee they won’t change their mind.

The Buckeyes went 8-0 SU and ATS at home this year. Their tougher games came mostly on the road where they went 3-1 SU and 1-2-1 ATS. That includes a 31-18 loss at Wisconsin on October 16 that dropped them from No. 1 in the country.

Pryor threw for just 156 yards at Wisconsin and had a quarterback rating of 121.2 away, compared to 176.3 at home. He threw eight picks in his last six games, versus three in the first six.

Ohio State has a more potent offense than given credit for, ranked 11th nationally (39.4 PPG). Herron led the way with 1,068 rushing yards, with the dual threat Pryor adding 639. Posey was the second-leading receiver (778 yards) behind Dane Sanzenbacher (889).

The defense ranked second nationally in yards allowed (250.6 YPG) and third in points (13.3 PPG). However, it didn’t play a lot of high powered offenses.

Tressel is in his 10th year as the Buckeyes coach and this is their sixth consecutive BCS bowl. They broke a three-game losing streak (1-2 ATS) last year with a 26-17 win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl as 4 ½-point ‘dogs.

Tressel is 0-3 SU and ATS against the SEC in bowl games. Two were losses in the national title game. Ohio State is 0-9 SU lifetime against the SEC in bowls.

Ohio State played an inspired Rose Bowl last year, but there are questions whether it can duplicate that effort given the controversy swirling around its stars.

No. 8 Arkansas (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) finished the season 6-0 SU (6-0 ATS) to make this bowl. That included wins at No. 19 South Carolina (41-20) and No. 21 Mississippi State (38-31 in double OT), plus home against then-No. 5 LSU (31-23).

Arkansas scores just below Ohio State at 37.3 PPG. Junior quarterback Ryan Mallett leads a passing attack averaging 338.4 YPG (fourth in the country). He likes to spread the ball among multiple receivers, making it harder on the defense.

The Razorbacks are scoring 42.3 PPG the last seven games. The ‘over’ went 6-1 in that span, only going ‘under’ in the final game against LSU.

The Arkansas defense ranks 33rd nationally in yards allowed (339.8 YPG) and 42nd in points (22.8 PPG). The point total was hurt badly by the 65-43 loss at Auburn on Oct. 16. The only other loss was 24-20 to Alabama at home in September. The Razorbacks blew a 20-7 lead late in the third quarter.

Pryor’s running could give Arkansas’ defense some problems, especially after allowing 188 yards rushing to Auburn’s Cam Newton. On the other side, Mallett represents the best passer by far Ohio State has seen this season.

Coach Bobby Petrino is in his third year with Arkansas. This is its first BCS bowl and it could be ‘win now’ time with Mallett likely to declare for the NFL Draft.

Sugar Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Arkansas vs. Ohio State (-3.5, 56.5)

THE SKINNY:

A fan-pleasing shootout may be on the horizon in this game, as both teams bring loads of offensive weapons into the contest.

No. 6 Ohio State (11-1), which is playing in its sixth consecutive BCS bowl and its ninth overall, averages 39.4 points and No. 8 Arkansas (10-2) averages 37.3 points. The factor which may determine this game is defense; Ohio State has allowed an average of 9.5 fewer points than Arkansas.

Ohio State brings a balanced attack, and the Buckeyes have outgained the opposition by an average of 141.7 yards over the last 17 games. Arkansas will throw under any and all conditions, which makes the Razorbacks a difficult opponent to put away.

Will the Buckeyes be distracted? News broke in late December that five players, including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, have been suspended for the first five games of the 2011 season but will be allowed to play in the Sugar Bowl. The players sold championship rings, awards and jerseys in exchange for tattoos from a local parlor.

OHIO STATE'S EDGE:

The Silver Bullet Defense is one of the nation's best, ranking second in total defense (250.6 yards) and third in scoring defense (13.3 points). The Buckeyes have limited six opponents to 10 or fewer points, including rival Michigan, which managed only seven. All-American Chimdi Chekwa leads the team with three interceptions and has 42 tackles and two forced fumbles. Brian Rolle leads with 70 tackles, 10 of them for loss, and Nathan Williams has four sacks.

ARKANSAS' EDGE:

The Hogs can put points on the board; they've scored no fewer than 31 points in their last seven games — all but one against stiff SEC competition. They rank third in the nation in passing offense thanks to quarterback Ryan Mallett and six receivers with at least 27 catches. The top pass catchers include: D.J. Williams (49 receptions, four TDs) and Joe Adams (41 catches, five TDs).

THE QUARTERBACKS:

Ohio State's Pryor is a dangerous man with a football in his hands. He's a passing threat (2,551 yards, 25 TDs) and a running threat (639 yards, four TDs). Pryor needs only 18 yards rushing to become the school's career rushing leader among quarterbacks.

Arkansas's Ryan Mallett completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,592 yards and 30 touchdowns. The redshirt junior (a transfer from Michigan) already holds the school record for touchdown passes.

NFL PROSPECTS:

Ohio State — DE Cameron Heyward, CB Chimdi Chekwa, FS Jermale Hines, OLB Ross Homan. Arkansas – QB Ryan Mallett, OT DeMarcus Love, TE D.J. Williams.

BOWL HISTORY:

Ohio State is 19-22 all-time in bowl games and broke a three-game bowl losing streak last year by winning the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes haven’t been to the Sugar Bowl since 1998, when they defeated Texas A&M 24-14.

Arkansas is appearing in the Sugar Bowl for the first time since 1969, when it lost a 27-22 decision to Ole Miss. The Razorbacks are 12-22-3 all-time in bowl games. Arkansas beat East Carolina 20-17 in overtime to win the 2009 Liberty Bowl.

ETC.:

Ohio State cornerback Corey Brown is out for the year with a knee injury. Arkansas cornerback Ramon Broadway dislocated an ankle against South Carolina, but could return for the Sugar Bowl. Wide receiver Greg Childs isn't expected back after having surgery to repair a patella tendon earlier this season.

BIG TEN VS. SEC

It’s been a rough bowl season for the Big Ten. Entering Tuesday’s OSU-Arkansas matchup, the conference is 2-5 straight up but 4-3 against the spread in its six bowl games this season.

The SEC is 3-0 SU and ATS versus Big Ten competition in this year’s bowls improving its mark against the Big Ten to 42-29 outright all-time in bowl games.

Ohio State has never beaten an SEC opponent in a bowl game, failing in each of its nine opportunities.

BETTING TRENDS

Arkansas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games against winning teams and 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.

Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight non-conference games but 0-5 ATS in its last five games against an SEC opponent.

The under is 7-0 in the Razorbacks’ last seven bowl games while the over is 4-1 the last five times Arkansas has been an underdog.

Sugar Bowl Preview

Ohio State is 0-9 in bowls vs SEC teams; there are rumblings they could suspend the five guys from Tattoogate for part of this game (Ohio State alum/ESPN announcer Spielman hinted at this), but they haven't done it yet. Buckeyes are 1-3 in last four bowl games- they beat Oregon LY in Rose Bowl. OSU is 1-3 in Bourbon Street bowls (0-4 vs spread); the big question is whether the distractions of the suspensions for next year are a problem, and thats hard to tell from the outside.

Arkansas is 2-3 in last five bowls, losing 38-7 last time they were a dog; Petrino beat ECU 20-17 in OT LY in Liberty Bowl, his first bowl game with Hogs, who scored just 13.7 ppg in last three bowls. Arkansas has a pro prospect at QB in Mallett- they have three senior starters on OL. Razorbacks played better teams than Ohio State did, since Buckeyes do not have a win vs ranked team. Petrino won Orange Bowl four years ago when he was coaching Louisville, so he has BCS experience.

Favorites covered three of last four Sugar Bowls, which were all decided by 14+ points. SEC teams are 5-2 in last seven Sugar Bowls- Arkansas fans will be happy to have Hogs playing so close to home. Big 11 teams were so pathetic Saturday (0-5); there is pressure on Ohio State to save face for the fatcat midwestern league. If you told me all the Ohio St kids would play the whole game, I'd like the over in this game, but I'm really not sure they'll play the whole game.

Tips and Trends

Ohio St. Buckeyes vs Arkansas Razorbacks

BUCKEYES: (-3, O/U 56.5) Ohio St. has had to deal with some real turmoil since the regular season ended. 5 key players were found to have broken NCAA rules, and they will be suspended for numerous games next year. Will there be a hangover effect for them tonight? Ohio St. is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS overall this season. The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU and 1-2-1 ATS away from home this year. Ohio St. is currently ranked 6th in the nation, and widely considered to be the 2nd best team in the country with 1 loss. The Buckeyes are 1-1-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. QB Terrelle Pryor has totaled nearly 3,200 YDS this season, including 29 TD's. The Buckeyes are averaging 39.4 PPG this year, 11th best in the nation. Defensively, Ohio St. is allowing just 13.3 PPG, 3rd best in the country. The Buckeyes are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Ohio St. is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games. The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in January. Ohio St. is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against the SEC. The Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on turf.

Buckeyes are 8-0 ATS last 8 non-conference games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games played on turf.

Key Injuries - DB Christian Bryant (infection) is out.

Projected Score: 34 (OVER-Total of the Day)

RAZORBACKS: Arkansas is coming off consecutive SU wins against ranked opponents, and have won their past 6 games overall. The Razorbacks are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS overall this season. Arkansas is ranked 8th in the nation coming into one of their most important games in school history. QB Ryan Mallett leads a passing offense that is averaging 338.4 PPG this year, 4th most in the nation. The Razorbacks are averaging 37.3 PPG, 14th best in the country. Mallett has thrown for 3,592 YDS and 30 TD's this year. Defensively, Arkansas is allowing 22.8 PPG, just 42nd in the nation. The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Arkansas is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Razorbacks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win. Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Razorbacks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on turf.

Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS last 6 games overall.
Under is 7-0 last 7 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - T Anthony Oden (illness) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31