Sun Belt College Football Betting Preview
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
The Sun Belt looks like a four-team race for the title, but that means there’s big betting value outside of those contenders in college football’s tiniest conference.
Appalachian State Mountaineers (2014: 7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +150
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Mountaineers: Appalachian State returns the most experienced team in the country as 20 starters are back after a 7-5 season in 2014. The Mountaineers won their last six games of last season, so they have momentum coming into this year. Sophomore QB Taylor Lamb threw for 2,381 yards with 17 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions, so the offense should match the 35.7 points per game they scored last season.
Why not bet the Mountaineers: The team moved up from FCS to FBS last season, and after opening 1-5, Appalachian State appeared to be overmatched. That question still needs to be answered this season, especially since they are going from low expectations to high expectations. The Mountaineers will likely be overvalued after finishing the end of 2014 on a winning streak.
Season win total pick: Over 8
Arkansas State Red Wolves (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Red Wolves: Arkansas State finally has the same coach (Blake Anderson) for a second season in a row; their three previous coaches were all one and done. The Red Wolves have been a consistent team over the last three seasons despite the coaching carousel. They are 25-14 over their last 39 games, so they’ve developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro. With 15 returning starters, the Red Wolves will once again be a solid team in 2015.
Why not bet the Red Wolves: The Red Wolves return just six starters on defense, and that unit was awful last season despite playing with seven returnees from the season before. Arkansas State gave up 30.5 points on 421 yards per game, and unless the Red Wolves can fix their defensive woes, 2015 will be a .500 season at best.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Georgia Southern Eagles (2014: 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Eagles: Georgia Southern is 47-19 over the last five years, so the program knows how to win. The Eagles have an outstanding running game that has averaged 324 yards per game or more in four consecutive seasons. Georgia Southern’s ability to run the ball and control the clock makes them a formidable opponent.
Why not bet the Eagles: The Eagles only return 13 overall starters, so second-year head coach Willie Fritz has his work cut out for him. Depth may also be an issue for Georgia Southern as they are still upping their scholarship players as FBS teams grant twenty more spots than FCS rules permit. The season will come down to how fast Fritz can acclimate the newer players to a higher level of football.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Georgia State Panthers (2014: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +6000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the Panthers: After going 1-23 over the last two seasons, there’s nowhere to go but up for Georgia State in 2015. The Panthers do return 17 overall starters, and their offense should improve once again after being better in 2014 than they were in 2013. Expectations are extremely low for Georgia State, so they’ll be getting full value in the majority of their games.
Why not bet the Panthers: Georgia State is 0-15 against Sun Belt opponents over the last two years, and there’s nothing to suggest a significant improvement in 2015. The Panthers have a terrible defense that gave up 43.3 points on 497 yards of offense per game in 2014. A 3-win season in 2015 will be considered a success for Georgia State.
Season win total pick: Over 2
Idaho Vandals (2014: 1-10 SU, 8-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Vandals: The step-down in class did no favors for Idaho last season after relocating to the Sun Belt conference. But the Vandals will likely improve off their one win season. Head coach Paul Petrino will be in his third season, and he says this team is much stronger and faster than the last two years. Expectations are extremely low once again, so Idaho will hold value all season.
Why not bet the Vandals: The Vandals are just 3-32 over the last three seasons, and they haven’t had a winning season since 1999. Idaho returns just 12 starters in 2015 which ties them for the fewest in the conference. The Vandals’ defense also needs to improve significantly as they allowed 37.3 points on 463 yards per game last year.
Season win total pick: Under 3
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +650
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: Louisiana has gone 9-4 in four consecutive seasons, so they are the epitome of a consistent team. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 18-5 in Sun Belt play over the last three years, and they are 7-1 in their last eight conference road games. The offense has been terrific in the five years under head coach Mark Hudspeth, and his system has proven to work against Sun Belt opponents.
Why not bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: The team only returns 12 starters, and they must replace veteran quarterback Terrance Broadway. Louisiana’s season will hinge on their defense, a unit that only gave up 26 points per game, but allowed 406 yards of offense per game in 2014. If the stop unit fails to make improvement, 2015 will be a mediocre season for Louisiana Lafayette.
Season win total pick: Under 8
UL Monroe Warhawks (2013: 4-8 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Warhawks: UL Monroe was much better in 2014 than their 4-8 record indicates. The Warhawks went 1-7 down the stretch, but five of those losses came by seven points or less. Monroe returns eight defensive starters from a unit that only gave up 26.3 points per game. The Warhawks play a quirky 3-3-5 defensive scheme, and they will likely have the best defense in the conference.
Why not bet the Warhawks: The Warhawks really need to improve their offense. They scored just 20.1 points per game last season. The schedule doesn’t help either, especially since Monroe will play at Georgia and at Alabama in September. They’ll also close the season by playing six of their last nine games on the road.
Season win total pick: Over 4
New Mexico State Aggies (2014: 2-10 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Aggies: New Mexico State will benefit from playing in the Sun Belt conference for the second consecutive season. Head coach Doug Martin will be in his third season, and he has 18 returning starters to work with. The Aggies’ offense will surprise teams, especially since the unit is now experienced in Martin’s system. Their ability to score points will make New Mexico State better in 2015.
Why not bet the Aggies: The Aggies have gone a woeful 4-20 in Martin’s first two years. New Mexico State’s major issues have come on the defensive side of the ball. Over the last two years, they’ve allowed an average of 41.9 points and 517 yards per game. They do return ten starters to that unit, but they must learn new schemes under new defensive coordinator Zane Vance, their second new coach in as many seasons.
Season win total pick: Under 3
South Alabama Jaguars (2014: 6-7 SU, 4-8-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1800
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Jaguars: South Alabama has been bowl-eligible the last two seasons, and they’ve had winning records in conference play as well. Head coach Joey Jones has built a solid program, and the talent level seems to get better and better in each and every season. The Jaguars have proven to be a competitive bunch, so they can’t be counted out in too many games.
Why not bet the Jaguars: The Jaguars come into the 2015 season with the least experienced team in all of FBS. South Alabama returns just five total starters, but they do have eight transfers from the defunct UAB program to incorporate. However, mixing those veterans with the youth of South Alabama may prove to be too much for head coach Jones. The Jaguars are talented, but it may not be reflected in the win/loss column.
Season win total pick: Over 3
Texas State Bobcats (2014: 7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1200
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats will be in their fifth year under head coach Dennis Franchione, and with 14 returning starters, Texas State should have a pretty good season. The offense has a very strong rushing attack that can eat clock while paying ball control. They return a lot of experience along the offensive line, so their ability to run the ball will be the reason for their success.
Why not bet the Bobcats: Texas State’s defense lost their best player, David Mayo, and they only return six starters. Defensive coordinator John Thompson implemented a tricky 4-2-5 scheme last year, but with the veteran losses, it’s quite likely that the Bobcats’ defense will be their detriment in 2015.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Troy Trojans (2014: 3-9 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3800
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Trojans: Troy had a terrible 3-9 record in 2014, and because of that, expectations are low. The Trojans’ offense projected to be explosive last year, but they only averaged 21.8 points per game. With seven starters returning on that side of the ball, and with offensive guru Neal Brown the new head coach, Troy may be a sneaky good team in 2015.
Why not bet the Trojans: Larry Blakeney won 178 games as Troy’s head coach over 24 seasons, but as mentioned above, Neal Brown is the new head coach. The offense should be fine, but the defense needs to improve a lot. The Trojans have allowed 30 points per game or more in five straight seasons. Troy’s team success hinges on the stop unit in 2015.
Season win total pick: Over 4