Sun Belt Predictions
By Chris David
Did you know the Sun Belt Conference has posted a 4-2 (67%) record against the spread in bowl games the last three years?
Were you impressed with Troy’s success against top-tier programs Ohio State (10-28) and LSU (40-31) in 2008? Sure, the Trojans lost both games but it took sound efforts from the Buckeyes and Tigers to avoid home upsets.
Are you aware that Arkansas State defeated Texas A&M 18-14 last year in College Station and two years prior almost stunned Texas (21-13) in Austin?
We forgot to mention Middle Tennessee’s 24-14 victory over Maryland last season or Louisiana-Monroe’s 21-14 shocker over Alabama in 2007 in Nick Saban’s first year.
Even though these highlights don’t define the Sun Belt Conference as a whole, it doesn’t mean we should ignore the nine-team group, especially from a gambling point of view. The lack of exposure may hurt these mid-major squads with their goals but it’s definitely helped gamblers at the counter, especially the past few years.
With that being said, we polled the Editorial staff at VegasInsider.com for their Sun Belt winners, sleeper looks, plus fade schools as well.
It wasn’t unanimous, but the majority believed Troy will walk away with the Sun Belt title this year.
“Over the last half-dozen years, I don’t know that there’s been a team in America that’s hooked me up with more winners than the Troy Trojans, who are 22-13 ATS since 2006. They are 14-6 ATS on the road during that span. Larry Blakeney’s program is the class of the Sun Belt Conference, annually taking on the premier teams in America and competing at a high level,” explained Brian Edwards.
Judd Hall agreed with Edwards. He said, “It’s hard not to think of Troy not winning this conference in 2009. They’ve won the league title either outright or a share of it for the last three seasons. And you’re going to be hard pressed to find a mid-major team that will cash in for you against the BCS schools with a 6-3 ATS record against those upper tier colleges. The offense is practically intact from the year before, anchored by Levi Brown under center.”
What’s impressive about Brown is that he earned his spot when starting gun slinger Jamie Hampton was injured in the fifth game of the season. In his eight games, Brown led the team to a 5-3 mark and the losses were by a combined 13 points, including the aforementioned setback to LSU in Baton Rouge by nine.
The lone expert that didn’t buy into Troy was Kevin Rogers, who is leaning toward Florida Atlantic as the eventual champion. Rogers noted, “The Owls have routinely played difficult non-conference schedules under head coach Howard Schellenberger, and I think it will pay off again this season. FAU battles Nebraska, South Carolina, and UAB on the road, while hosting Wyoming in early October. The Owls return senior quarterback Rusty Smith, who has been the standout player for this program since its inception. The defense is shaky but FAU travels to Troy in late November, and gamblers should know that the road team has won the last three head-to-head meetings.”
While it’s hard to ignore Troy and FAU as contenders, our group believes some other schools have the ability to make some noise too. Hall and Rogers both feel that Middle Tennessee State can improve off back-to-back 5-7 seasons.
Rogers added, “The Blue Raiders will be at home for only one game the first five weeks of the season, but end the final two months with five of seven in Murfreesboro. MTSU returns 10 starters on offense, including RB Phillip Tanner, who scored 15 TD’s last season. The Blue Raiders weren’t a great ATS play in conference, going 1-6, but covered four of five games against non-conference foes.”
According to Hall, one major reason to look at MTSU is their coaching staff. He added, “The Blue Raiders beefed up their offense with new coordinator Tony Franklin, who is coming back to his old stomping grounds after a brief stint at Auburn last year. He ran Troy’s offense in 2006 and 2007 so he’s very familiar with most everyone in the league. Franklin will have a veteran unit returning on offense and a monster receiving trio that accounted for 13 of the 18 total passing touchdowns scored last season.”
Brian Edwards feels that Louisiana-Lafayette has a shot to turn some heads. “Louisiana has 16 overall starters back from a team that only lost by three at Illinois and by eight at Kansas St. Speaking of the Wildcats, they had better be careful in a Week 2 trip into Cajun Country. La-Lafayette went 8-4 ATS last year and I expect it to be a money maker once again in 2009,” explained Edwards.
While those numbers are impressive, this writer believes ULL is in for some trouble this year. The defense does bring back nine of its top 10 tacklers from 2008 but is that saying much for a group that gave up 33.7 PPG and 28-plus in six oconference games? Combine those numbers with the losses of running back Tyrell Fenroy (1,406 yard, 19 TDs) and dual-threat quarterback Michael Desormeaux (18 total TDs), and its hard to imagine the Rajin’ Cajuns hitting 67% against the number again. Gamblers might want to look for ‘under’ plays on ULL this year.
vegasinsider.com
Sun Belt Preview
By Matt Fargo
The Sun Belt Conference has always been the weakest of the 11 conferences across the nation and that will be the case again this season. However, it could be one of the more improved in the country as many teams bring back a significant amount of returning starters. This may not equate to more non-conference wins but the parity could mean a chance for teams to get a crack at dethroning Troy, the 2008 Sun Belt Champion.
Troy Trojans 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Summary: The Trojans had the best defense in the conference last season and will likely possess it once again. They only return five starters but all five are seniors while five new starters are also entering their final season so experience is all over the place. Troy finished first in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense and second in rushing defense. The offense is the weakness but quite honestly it is far from shabby. The Trojans return their starting quarterback, running back and two receivers to a unit that finished second in both scoring and overall offense. The biggest question is on the line where both tackles need to be replaced. They will have the bullseye squarely on their backs this season.
Schedule: Troy has two tough non-conference games at Florida and at Arkansas to go along with a home game against an improved UAB team. The other non-Sun Belt game is at Bowling Green to start the year. The conference schedule has only one real roadblock and that is a game at Arkansas St. which happens to be the Sun Belt opener. After that, bettors might see seven straight Troy wins.
Bottom Line: If Troy wins on the road against the Red Wolves, it will likely coast to the New Orleans Bowl once again. If it loses, it will make things more interesting but top to bottom, the Trojans are ahead of the pack and are once again the team to beat. A third bowl game in six years is likely.
Betting Forecast: Troy will be overpriced all season so looking the other way could be the way to go.
Arkansas State Red Wolves 6-6 SU, 3-8 ATS, 2-9 O/U
Summary: Statistically speaking, the Red Wolves should have done better than their 4-3 conference record from a season ago. They were first or second in seven major categories in the conference but two of the three conference losses came by a combined six points and that was the difference. The offense boasts the best quarterback and running back combo in the conference in Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold respectively but three key offensive line losses will dictate how potent the unit will be. The defense is a question mark with the loss of some huge talent but experience could make up for it as eight players are back. The Red Wolves finished 18th in the nation in turnover margin last year and a repeat of that could be difficult as those stats tend to even out year to year.
Schedule: Arkansas St. starts the season at home against Mississippi Valley St. but the other three non-conference games are at Nebraska, Iowa and Louisville, all likely losses. As mentioned with Troy, the Red Wolves catch the Trojans at home in their conference opener and that result is going to go a long way in deciding the conference champion.
Bottom Line: Beat Troy, and the conference championship is within its grasp. Lose to the Trojans, and the title is likely gone after just one game as it is hard to see another Sun Belt team defeating Troy. Still, this is the Sun Belt where crazy things happen every week so no team can be counted out that early in reality.
Betting Forecast: After going 3-8 ATS last season, look for a turnaround similar to the 2003-2004 seasons.
Florida Atlantic Owls 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS, 4-9 O/U
Summary: Florida Atlantic comes into the 2009 season with some major momentum as it won five of its final six regular season conference games and then won in the Motor City Bowl over Central Michigan. Whether or not that carries over into this season remains to be seen but the Owls have what it takes to make a run. Offensively, they are led by fourth-year starter Rusty Smith at quarterback who will have two top receivers back as well. The problem is, the rest of the offense needs to be overhauled, in particular, four-fifths of the offensive line. The same holds true for the defense that brings back just three starters on a unit that finished 92nd in the nation in total defense. Smith will be asked to carry this team and that will be a tall order no matter how talented he is.
Schedule: Part of the reason that momentum from last season does not carry over is because the Owls start the season at Nebraska and then at South Carolina. Wyoming and UAB round out the non-conference part of the slate. The Owls host Arkansas St. and then travel to Troy in consecutive weeks in November with a loss in either of those meaning possible elimination from title hopes.
Bottom Line: The pieces are in place for another late season run for the Owls who will be hoping the defense has found its chemistry once the meat of the SBC games arrive. This offense will be explosive but it might have to score a lot of points early on as the defense will be giving up its share as well.
Betting Forecast: With a potent offense and suspect defense and only four overs last season, we could see great value in the over in 2009.
Florida International Golden Panthers 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U
Summary: Not much was expected from Florida International last season following a 1-23 combined record in 2006 and 2007. The Golden Panthers were looking at a similar path to start 2008 by losing its first three non-conference games by a combined 99-19 but instead of folding, they used that as a motivator and went on win five of their final nine games. The five wins overall and three within the conference both tied the most in program history and that isn’t bad considering football wasn’t played here until 2002. With 16 starters returning overall as well as the best recruiting class ever, things are definitely looking up and this team can no longer be taken lightly.
Schedule: Four of the first five games are on the road including the first two at Alabama and Rutgers so a strong start might be farfetched. Four of the final seven games are at home, bookended with Troy and Florida Atlantic, two of the top teams in the conference so those are must wins if there is any chance of a conference title. The Golden Panthers are 7-32 in road games all time.
Bottom Line: The offense has the potential to be really good but it is the defense that will dictate how good this team will be because of the losses up front. The last two losses a season ago came by just 11 points total so Florida International was close to bowl eligibility. It may still be a year away but things are definitely looking up.
Betting Forecast: The public will be weary to back this perennial loser which means value on the Golden Panthers side all season.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 O/U
Summary: The Ragin’ Cajuns had a great season in 2008 but were not rewarded with a bowl game despite being eligible. Matching that .500 record will be difficult this season as they are replacing the bulk of the offensive talent from last season including 2008 SBC Player of the Year quarterback Michael Desormeaux and all-time leading rusher Tyrone Fenroy. On a positive note, the entire offensive line returns which will help give the young offense time to find some chemistry. Nine defensive starters from last season are back but that may not be an especially positive thing. The defense ranked 105th overall and 104th in scoring last season so it really has no where to go but up.
Schedule: The good news is that Louisiana-Lafayette gets Florida Atlantic and Troy at home but the bad news is that those two games are surrounded around four road games including three straight at one point. The Cajuns open the season with a likely win at home against Southern but it gets real tough real quick with non-conference games against Kansas St., LSU and Nebraska, the final two coming on the road.
Bottom Line: It is likely going to be a rebuilding season in Lafayette unless the team can find some offense right out of the gate. If that happens and the defensive experience helps the stop unit perform better, this could be the surprise of the conference. A middle of the pack finish is likely however.
Betting Forecast: After going 8-4 against the numbers last year, the Cajuns could be in for some tough times at the window this season.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Summary: Middle Tennessee has been one of the most consistent teams in the Sun Belt since its formation as it has gone 30-24 since 2001 and has had fewer than three conference wins only once. That consistency may be good but it has only one conference championship and one bowl game to show for it. Last season the Blue Raiders were the youngest team in the conference but now they are the most experienced and their scholarship numbers have gone from 71 to 85. On offense, everyone is back with the exception of quarterback Joe Craddock but Dwight Dasher is a solid replacement. Defensively, Middle Tennessee was average last season and they return seven players including the entire secondary. Expectations are high.
Schedule: The reason for being ranked as low as they are is because of a tough schedule to start the season. Non-conference games against Clemson, Memphis and Maryland start the season and then it is two straight road SBC games before playing another tough one against Mississippi St. The backend of the slate eases up but by then it may be too late for the Blue Raiders to make a run.
Bottom Line: The experience is there and Middle Tennessee finally has a full squad but that schedule is not easy. In order for things to move in the right direction, it will have to run the ball better as it ranked 102nd in the nation in rushing offense last year. An upset of Maryland and a near miss at Kentucky last year will be tough to duplicate.
Betting Forecast: The Blue Raiders are 7-2 ATS in non-conference games the last two years so we could see dog opportunities early.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 4-8 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-4 O/U
Summary: The Warhawks were hammered with injuries a season ago so their 4-8 record could be considered decent. Looking closer shows that five of those losses came by single digits including a one-point setback against Arkansas so things could have actually been even better. La-Monroe has a lot of the same attributes as other SBC teams in that it returns a lot of players on both sides of the ball but there are still plenty of question marks surrounding key areas. The biggest is at quarterback where Kinsmon Lancaster needs to be replaced and that job will go to Trey Revell who has limited experience behind center. The running game as well as the offensive line is in excellent shape and that is important in breaking in a new quarterback.
Schedule: As with most SBC teams, the schedule is a bear. Three non-conference games are at Texas, Arizona St. and Kentucky but let’s not forget this team did win in Alabama two years ago. The Sun Belt schedule is difficult with games at Florida Atlantic, which is the conference opener, as well as a game at Troy. The final four games are all winnable but by then it may be over.
Bottom Line: The Warhawks could be ranked anywhere from fourth to seventh and like the three teams ranked ahead of them in this range, it could pull a few surprises. The offense should be ok at running the ball but the defense will have to improve immensely in order for a top half finish to tak
e place. Betting Forecast: The Warhawks have gone 5-2 ATS in the SBC in each of the last four years which means play against in 2009.
North Texas Mean Green 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS, 7-5 O/U
Summary: After winning 24 straight conference games from 2001 to 2004, the Mean Green have gone 5-23 over the last four seasons including a 0-7 record last season. Some are calling for North Texas to be one of the most improved teams in the nation but it was so bad last year that even the biggest of improvements could mean little movement upward. North Texas was last in the nation in scoring defense and total defense, allowing 47.6 ppg and 482.6 ypg respectively so it has no where to go but up. How far up remains the million dollar question. The offense will be led by the coach’s son, freshman Riley Dodge and that could mean early growing pains and turnovers. That is not good considering the Mean Green were 116th in the country in turnover margin last year.
Schedule: The good news is that the North Texas schedule is relatively easy compared to the other conference teams. The biggest non-conference test is a game at Alabama but the other three games are against Ball St., Ohio and Army. As for conference action, the Mean Green are at Troy and Arkansas St., the two likely frontrunners but those would even be tough at home with this team.
Bottom Line: Head coach Todd Dodge is squarely on the hot seat. He is 3-21 in his two years in Denton with only one conference victory so he needs some vast improvement from his team to help keep his job. If not for new member Western Kentucky, the Mean Green would be looking at another sure last place finish in the SBC.
Betting Forecast: We will see some huge underdog numbers for North Texas but it could still lose big so looking at totals will be key.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2-10 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, 2-8 O/U
Summary: The Hilltoppers won the 1-AA National Championship in 2002 so this is a solid program that knows how to win. In its first season in limited FBS status in 2007, Western Kentucky went 7-5 but six of those wins came against non-FBS teams as did both wins last season enroute to its 2-10 finish. Overall, the Hilltoppers are 2-19 since 2004 against FBS teams so its first year as a full member of the Sun Belt Conference will likely have its issues. The Hilltoppers were outscored by only 9.7 ppg last year so they were competitive in many of their games. Still, this is a very young team with only nine senior starters but with expectations so low, the season will not be a disappointment no matter how many games are won.
Schedule: The schedule really isn’t that bad for Western Kentucky as games against Tennessee and South Florida are the two tough non-conference contests. The others include Central Arkansas and Navy. The first two Sun Belt games are at home against FIU and La-Lafayette so a surprise could take place. The last two home games are against top teams Troy and Arkansas St.
Bottom Line: The Hilltoppers are a few years away from becoming legitimate contenders but the same was said about Troy when it entered the conference in 2004 and it has done nothing but win. It may take more time here but this is not a program that is starting from scratch. There will be at least one upset at some point this year.
Betting Forecast: The Hilltoppers went 3-7 ATS last year and we should see a big improvement with a lot of value all year.
2012 College Football Preview: Sun Belt
Atssportsline.com
Sun Belt College Football Preview
College football starts on August 30. We'll take a look at each conference before the season starts. Let's look at the Sun Belt, led by Arkansas State, which will be coached by former Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn.
Arkansas State (2011: 10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS). Ret. starters (Off: 6, Def: 4). ASU returns senior QB Ryan Aplin (6-1, 205), who threw for 3,588 yds, with 19 TDs and 16 picks last year and led the team in rushing with 588yds and 10. Once again, he'll play for another new coach in Gus Malzahn, the former Auburn OC. He has two of his top three targets back led by Josh Jarboe (54 for 730yds). And Taylor Stockmeier (48 for 756yds). The O-line returns just two starters. On defense, the Red Wolves lose their top two tacklers. DT Ryan Carrethers (6-2, 310) anchors a strong line. LBs Nathan Herrold (66tckls) and Qushuan Lee (49tckls) are solid. The secondary is the concern with just one starter back.
Florida Atlantic (2011: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 7, Def: 8). Legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger retired on a down note as the team finished 1-11. Carl Pelini was the DC at Nebraska under his brother Bo. They finished last out of 120 teams in total offense. Junior QB Melvin German, a jc transfer, takes over to play the spread. Junior DeAndre Richardson (32 fo 269) is the most productive receiver back. Alfred Morris, the school's all-time leading rusher (1186yds Ly) so there are question marks there. Three of five linemen are back as well. ON defense, they return eight starters including CB Keith Reaser (61tcks, 2 picks) and LBs Randell Johnson (92tckls, 5 sacks) and David Hinds (110tckls). The Owls are moving to a 4-3 scheme after playing 3-4 in 2011.
FIU (2011: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 7, Def: 11). The Panthers have a balanced team with a ton of returning starters. On offense, they return Kedrick Rhodes (1,149yds), a junior along with four starters back on the offensive line. WR T.Y. Hilton (1038yds) was one of the best playmakers in the history of FIU and will be tough to replace. WR Wayne Times (54 for 540yds) takes over as the #1 receiver. At QB, Jake Medlock had two starters as a redshirt freshman before injury his shoulder. On defense, they return all 11 players from a squad that allowed just 19.5ppg. Senior LB Winston Fraser (108tckls, 4 scks) led the team in tackles last year. Junior DE Greg Hickman (5 sacks) led the team in sacks. The corners are fast but undersized at 5-9.
Louisiana (2011: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 9, Def: 4). Senior QB Blaine Gautier returns to a 9-4 team with nine returning starters on offense. Gautier threw for 2,958 yards last year with 23 TDs and only six picks. The top two receivers are also back led by Javone Lawson, who caught 63 passes for 1,092 yards. RB Alonzo Harris (700yds) leads an experienced group of backs. If there is an issue, it's with a young defense. Junior LB Delvin Jones (6-5, 230) is a juco transfer who started his career at Ole Miss. Junior SS Darius Barksdale is another transfer who played at ole Miss back in 2009.
ULM (2011: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS). Ret. starters: (2011: Off: 9, Def: 4). UL Monroe returns junior QB Kolton Browning (2483yds, 13, , 443yds rushing) to an explosive offense. The Warhawks also bring back Brent Leonard (69 rec for 751 yds) along with their top three receiving targets. Junior RB Jyruss Edwards (667yds, 11 TDs) will team with Centarius Donald (414yds) for a solid duo. They also bring back three of their five starters on the O-line. On defense, they have seven new starters. Junior Kentarius Caldwell (6-2, 266) moves from interior to defensive end. They need to find a strong pass rush. Junior Vincent Eddie (63tckls) is back to lead the secondary.
Middle Tennessee (2011: 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 6, Def: 6). Rick Stockstill's squad returns Logan Kilgore (2231yds, 18, 12), who anchors a unit of six returning starters. RBs William Pratcher (585yds) and Benny Cunningham (501yds) will be pushed by LSU transfer Drayton Calhoun (5-11, 184). At WR, Tavarres Jefferson (51 for 398yds) averaged just 7.8 ypc. They return just two starters on the offensive line. On defense, they are led by all-Sun Belt candidates DE Omar McLendon (54tckls) and DT Jimmy Staten (6-4, 300). New DC Tyrone Nix hopes to add some playmakers as they had just four picks last year. He also needs to fill the holes in the secondary and at linebacker.
North Texas (2011: 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS). Ret. starters (Off: 9, Def: 6). Junior QB Derek Thompson (1759, 11, 6) established himself last year. At RB, they have to replace Lance Dunbar (783yds, 10 TDs). R-freshman Antoinne Jimmerson (5-9, 207) is the leading candidate. They return the top two receivers. The O-line returns four of five starters. On defense, they are looking for playmakers for the last-place defense. They allowed nearly 266 passing yards per game last year. LB Zachary Orr (74tckls) is back to leads a defense that has four new starters in the secondary.
South Alabama (2011: 6-4 SU). Ret. starters: Off: 6, Defense: 9. The Jaguars have five starters back on offense and will have to cope with a 13-game schedule with just two on the offensive line. Coach Joey Jones has a challenge but at least he has QB CJ Bennett (1640yds, 7, 17), coming off a mistake-prone rookie season. Both running backs are back in Kendall Houston (558yds, 7 TDs) and Demetre Baker (491yds, 9 TDs). On defense, they are led by nine returning starters including LB Jake Johnson (83tckls) and FS B.J. Scott (5-11, 205). Last year's defense allowed just 310 yards per game, but that was against FCS teams as they were transitioning to FBS.
Troy (2011: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS). Ret. starters (Off: 9, Def: 6). Troy has been the top programs of the SBC, having won five straight titles until last season when they slipped to 3-9. Junior QB Corey Robinson was the most productive passer in the league last year, tossing for 284 yards per game with 21 TDs and 15 picks. He has a deep WR corps led by Eric Thomas (67 for 875yds, 9 TDs). At RB, Shawn Southard returns to lead a solid group. They also lost WR Corey Johnson (43 for 440yds) to a torn ACL in spring practice The O-line returns three of five starters. The problem is the defense, which was awful last year, allowing 465ypg and 204ypg on the ground. They do return SS Brynden Trawick (6-2, 221), who led the team in tackles with 123 last year.
Western Kentucky (2011: 7-5 SU, 10-2 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 9, Def: 7). The Hiltoppers had their first winning season in FBS after spending two seasons in the Sun Belt. Senior QB Kawaun Jakes (6-3, 198) led the team with 1,854yds passing, 10 TDs and 12 picks. They have to replace RB Bobby Rainey (1695yds, 13 TDs), who led the team and league last season. That will mean more pressure on Jakes and TE Jack Doyle (52 for 614yds). All four starters are back on the offensive line. On defense, they have a very good D-line led by DE Qu anterus Smith (7.5 sacks) and DT Jamarcus Allen (39tckls, 2.5 sacks). First-team all-SBC pick LB Andrew Jackson (6-1, 262) led the team with 109 tackles and 13.5 TFLs. They do need to improve kicking game as they went 5-for-20 on field goal attempts last year.
2012 Sun Belt Conference Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Slow but sure. That’s the Sun Belt’s motto.
After sending three teams off to the bowling alleys each of the last two seasons, the ‘Fun in the Sun’ guys currently own the 5th best win percentage (.545) of the 11 FBS conferences in bowl games played since 2007, ranking ahead of the ACC, Big 10 and the PAC 12.
And a recently signed contract with ESPN guarantees the Sun Belt new radiant exposure on the programming giant through the 2019 season. No less than seven games will be aired this season.
The newest addition to the league is South Alabama, a team that has lost only four of its 27 games the last four seasons under head coach Joey Jones.
Never shy when it comes to tackling the big boys, the Sun Belt has squared off in no less than 42 games against FBS foes that appeared in a bowl game the last two seasons.
One very disturbing stat: Sun Belt teams are 9-108 in games against BCS AQ (Automatic Qualifier) teams the last five years.
Granted, they may be arguably the weakest of the 11 BCS conference affiliates, and it’s league champ won’t be guaranteed a BCS bowl, but don’t tell them.
By rule, if it can, the SBC champion will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if its champion is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, or if that team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and its ranking is higher that that of a champion of a conference that has an automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
In closing, as we mentioned in our analysis last year, the league may be suffering from a bad case of sunspots but to a team they believe, sooner than later, a member of the Sun Belt Conference will someday be playing in a BCS bowl game. Don’t bet against them. They’ve still having plenty of fun in the sun.
Note: Team writeups by this author excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
ARKANSAS STATE – (*6/4)
Team Theme: FAST AND FURIOUS
With Hugh Freeze yet another ‘one-and-done’ coach and now the new boss at Ole Miss, new coach Gus Malzahn has large shoes to fill as ASU broke virtually every offensive record in program history en route to a 10-win campaign last year. That doesn’t faze Malzahn, who sees his fast-paced offense as being a really big advantage when it comes to coaching college football. “I'm a big fan of Chip Kelly and his offense. He's kind of on the cutting edge and he's not afraid to take chances with new things." Editor’s note: Don’t be surprised if Malzahn’s next new thing finds him and his playbook in Little Rock sometime in the very near future.
Stat You Will Like: After ranking No. 95 in total offense in 2009, ASU’s spread offense ranked No. 22 last season.
PLAY ON: at Oregon (9/1)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (*7/8)
Team Theme: TAKE A LOOK AT ME NOW
It’s out with the old and in with the new in Boca as Howard Schnellenberger is now drawing full Social Security while Carl Pelini is roaming the FAU sidelines. While Pelini’s only experience as a head coach has been at the high school level, he immediately established a leadership council led by players, rules in the weight room that players have responded to, a new spread offense and 4-3 defense. “Things went so poorly last year, you really want to buy in,” says DB Keith Reaser of Pelini’s playbook. Though Iowa transfer Jonathon Wallace should help a ground game that mustered only 3.3 YPC in 2011, we’ll continue to window shop before we buy.
Stat You Will Like: In 2012, the Owls will play seven true road games for the ninth straight season.
PLAY ON: vs. North Texas (9/29)
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (7/10)
Team Theme: IMAGINE THIS
There’s a reason Mario Cristobal said no to offers from Pitt and Rutgers. The coach knows what’s under the hood for his football team this season. With 17 starters back from last year’s eight-win edition, Cristobal has more talent on hand than he’s ever had since taking over this fledgling program in 2007. What happens should FIU win each of its four non-conference games to start the season? The Panthers would then head into Sun Belt play with a real possibility of finishing unbeaten. It would be just their luck to see that happen to only wake up and find the Mayans were right! While the ancient ones have December 21st circled on their calendar, Mario is thinking New Year’s Day.
Stat You Will Like: After going 0-18 SU in the first three games of the season the previous six years, the Panthers went 3-0 last season.
PLAY ON: at Duke (9/1)
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (*9/4)
Team Theme: RING OF SUCCESS
In his first year on the job, Mark Hudspeth tied a school record for most wins in a season (9) and was quickly rewarded with a five-year contract extension and double the pay (750k) in hope that he’s not lured out of Lafayette by the big boys. In a show of appreciation, Hudspeth awarded each player a Super Bowl-like ring as a memento of their New Orleans Bowl win. He may want to remember sizes as the Cajuns return nine starters on offense, led by senior QB Blaine Gautier, who tossed for 3,000 yards and 23 TD’s in 2011. Hudspeth also put the advantage back in home field as Lafayette raged to a 5-0 SU mark after dropping six of its previous eight at Cajun Field.
Stat You Will Like: The Cajuns have cashed in each of their last 13 games in a row away from home as a dog.
PLAY ON: at Oklahoma State (9/15)
LOUISIANA-MONROE (*8/5)
Team Theme: BERRY PROMISING
At first glance, it appears the Warhawks have slipped in each of the first two years under Todd Berry, going from six wins to five to four. However, Monroe improved on each side of the ball in 2011 and, despite the SU and ATS drop, teams of this ilk almost always improve dramatically the following season. Let’s not forget that in his first season Berry saw 17 freshmen and sophomores start games for a team that came within one game of bowl eligibility – or that he has developed 11 all-SBC performers since his arrival. Yes, ULM will open the season 0-3 but that should toughen them up for what promises to be a much-anticipated bowl run.
Stat You Will Like: Berry is 0-24 SU and 6-17 ATS in games off a spread win of more than 4 points.
PLAY ON: at Western Kentucky (10/20)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (*6/6)
Team Theme: STOCKING UP
There is something to be said about how teams perform after record-setting performances. If you think otherwise, witness the Blue Raiders’ effort last year after having gone bowling in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history. An offense that has slipped 10 PPG over the past two seasons, along with an 87-yard collapse by the defense over the same span, results in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Blue Man Group will continue to operate from a no-huddle attack but they’ll do it behind a rebuilt offensive line. The good news is the defensive line remains intact for MTSU’s two-time Sun Belt Coach of the Year, Rick Stockstill.
Stat You Will Like: Rick Stockstill is 6-0 ATS in regular-season games when playing off a SU underdog win.
PLAY ON: vs. Troy (11/24)
NORTH TEXAS (*9/5)
Team Theme: OFF THE STEROIDS
Now that former coach Todd Dodge is gone, it's time for the not-so Mean Green to wean itself off Dodge's JUCO-transfusion and onto Dan McCarney's recruits as this program continues to rebuild itself from the ground up. This year they’ll have to do it without the services of star RB Lance Dunbar and his backup, who together combined for 1,521 yards in 2011. The Green will also be minus the services of 27 seniors who graduated from last year's roster, including three starters from the secondary. The good news is QB Derek Thompson, who battled through injuries last year, appears fully healthy while his backups are suddenly experienced.
Stat You Will Like: McCarney is 3-18 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 or more points.
PLAY AGAINST: at Middle Tennessee State (10/27)
SOUTH ALABAMA (*5/9)
Team Theme: SMOOTH SPREAD
Established in 2007, Bo Derek would be proud of a South Alabama football program that has moved along nicely, playing its first game in 2009 before recording a perfect 10-0 season in 2010. Defense should, once again, be the strong suit as nine starters are back from a unit that ranked No. 16 in the FCS last season. Offensively, the Jaguars will be unveiling a new spread-attack, handing the keys to sophomore QB C.J. Bennett. Though not eligible for the Sun Belt title until 2013, games played this year will count as conference games for SBC foes. This season may not go as smooth as the past few (see stat below), but the Jaguars have earned FBS status. Perfect.
Stat You Will Like: The Jaguars are 23-2 SU all-time versus non-FBS opponents.
PLAY ON: at NC State (9/15)
TROY (*10/6)
Team Theme: THE ART OF REBOUNDING
According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation.com, one of college football’s most illuminating reporters, Troy’s down season last year is an indicator of good things to come in 2012. We agree, as the Trojans are a fully qualified ‘Mission Team’ with a lot to prove this season. The descent started early last year when three starters were declared academically ineligible, including QB Corey Robinson’s top two targets. All three return this season. In fact, nine of Troy’s top 10 receivers are on hand this year. And remember, despite the loss of his main weapons, Robinson still managed to air it out for over 3,400 yards and 21 TD’s in 2011. Off the worst season of his 22-year tenure, expect a big Blakeney bounce-back.
Stat You Will Like: Blakeney has had 19 players picked in the NFL draft in his 22 years with Troy, including DeMarcus Ware and Osi Umenyiora.
PLAY ON: vs. La-Lafayette (9/8)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (*9/8)
Team Theme: FROM ZERO TO…
When the Hilltoppers hired Willie Taggert as their new head coach in 2010, little did they realize that their former star quarterback from the mid 1990’s would lead them from zero to seven wins in two short years. Despite the seven victories, the Toppers were snubbed of a bowl bid. Taggert insists there are no sour grapes – just motivation. “After last year, we’re not gonna make any excuses,” said Taggert. “That’s on us. We can’t blame anyone else.” We wouldn’t blame them for taking a step back, especially with the graduation loss of featured RB Bobby Rainey, who owns every school rushing record while toting the ball nearly 31 times per game last year.
Stat You Will Like: The Hilltoppers are 9-35 SU versus FBS opponents. All nine victories have all been under Taggert the last two seasons.
PLAY AGAINST: at La-Lafayette (11/17)