Two teams to vie for 2010 Sun Belt league title
By: Steve Makinen
The Sun Belt Conference seems to be improving each and every year and the fact that two teams won at least nine games a season ago is all the proof anyone should need. The next thing on the list to accomplishment is some more consistent non-conference upsets early in the season. Middle Tennessee State certainly seems capable of pulling one or two, as does Troy. Those are the two overwhelming favorites, thanks in part to a wealth of returning talent. In fact, of the teams that proved competitive last year in the Sun Belt, they are the only clubs that don’t have massive holes to fill. That might make life better for a club like North Texas, who boasts a ton of returning production in the quest to get back to the top of a league it dominated in the beginning to middle of the last decade. Arkansas State was really ravaged by personnel losses, with a nation-low five starters returning in 2010. The rest of the league seems to be in status quo mode, meaning the one game that truly matters, and should decide the conference title, comes on October 5th, in Murfreesboro, when Middle Tennessee welcomes Troy to town. It could be another coming out party for Blue Raiders’ QB Dwight Dasher, who you’re sure to be seeing on highlight films.
2010 Predicted Finish
1. Middle Tennessee State
2. Troy
3. Florida Atlantic
4. LA-Monroe
5. LA-Lafayette
6. North Texas
7. Arkansas State
8. Florida International
9. Western Kentucky
ARKANSAS STATE INDIANS
Head Coach: Steve Roberts, 9th year (41-55 SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 2-9 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 2
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 3
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -0.6 (#73 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -8.2 (#100 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 21 (#106 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at Auburn
9/11 - at LA Lafayette
9/18 - LA MONROE
9/25 - at Troy
10/2 - LOUISVILLE
10/9 - at North Texas
10/16 - at Indiana
10/23 - FLA ATLANTIC
11/2 - MIDDLE TENN ST
11/13 - W KENTUCKY
11/20 - at Navy
11/27 - at Fla International
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 15-21 (42%)
Overall ATS: 2-9, 10-24 (29%)
at Home ATS: 1-3, 5-9 (36%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-6, 5-15 (25%)
vs Conference ATS: 1-7, 5-17 (23%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-5, 5-14 (26%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-4, 5-10 (33%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 26.17 (115)
Points Scored - Allowed: 22.7 (90) - 23.3 (45)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 328.8 (95) - 341.4 (41)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.21 (83) - 5.23 (49)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.79 (78) - 3.54 (33)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.04 (67) - 7.16 (68)
Turnover Differential: -0.4 (87)
2010 OUTLOOK
Arkansas State’s 6-6 record in 2008 fostered an optimism that a bowl bid could be realized for the first time since ‘05 and that mounting a challenge to the Sun Belt hierarchy would happen more often. However, a pair of four-game losing streaks last season relegated the Red Wolves to a 4-8 campaign—three of which saw Steve Roberts’ team lose by a field goal. Roberts has yet to compile a winning record since coming to Jonesboro in 2002 and a sluggish offense must improve if the Red Wolves are to accomplish that…The offense was in the lower half of nearly every offensive category and a feeble passing attack produced only 10 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. The rushing attack was nothing to brag about, either, and only FIU and Louisiana-Lafayette averaged fewer yards per carry (3.8) than Arkansas State. Hopefully, quarterback Ryan Aplin used 2009 as a learning curve and should improve upon his 889 passing yards and three touchdowns. A huge void in the running game is apparent with the departure of Reggie Arnold, who tallied 12 touchdowns. Roberts will now lean on junior Derek Lawson for rushing production. Like the running game, the receiving corps is also littered with new faces. Even with some departures on the line, the unit should be better…For all the criticism of the offense, the stop unit was tops in the Sun Belt in total defense (341.4 YPG) and scoring (23.3 PPG). This time around, Arkansas State will need plenty of players to step up and contribute, since only three starters are back…This squad is littered with question marks. It’s tough to see who will emerge as the go-to guy on the offense, which means the defense will have to come up big once again. Experience won’t be the factor that leads to successes.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, ARKANSAS ST is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) on the road in the second half of the season. The Average Score was ARKANSAS ST 17.2, OPPONENT 29.1
FLA ATLANTIC OWLS
Head Coach: Howard Schnellenberger, 12th year (53-55 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS
Offense: Pro Set - Starters Returning: 3
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -6.3 (#91 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -9.5 (#104 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 23 (#98 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at UAB
9/11 - vs. Michigan St (Detroit, MI)
9/25 - NORTH TEXAS
10/2 - at S Florida
10/9 - at LA Monroe
10/23 - at Arkansas St
10/30 - FLA INTERNATIONAL
11/6 - at W Kentucky
11/13 - LA LAFAYETTE
11/20 - at Texas
11/27 - at Middle Tenn St
12/4 - TROY
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 20-18 (53%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 20-18 (53%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 7-7 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 13-11 (54%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 14-9 (61%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-4, 11-7 (61%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-4, 9-11 (45%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 28.17 (104)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.4 (60) - 33.8 (106)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 432.0 (15) - 453.2 (112)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.90 (37) - 7.02 (119)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.22 (62) - 6.14 (119)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.54 (41) - 8.11 (106)
Turnover Differential: +0.1 (58)
2010 OUTLOOK
A quest for a third straight bowl appearance came to an end for Florida Atlantic, which lost to the two teams that mattered in Troy and Middle Tennessee. From that rationalization, it’s probably appropriate the Owls did not go bowling last season since the defense let them down on too many occasions and they were 0-4 against teams outside the conference. Offensively, the team will have to deal with the loss of quarterback Rusty Smith and wideout Jason Harmon…Even with a majority of starters gone, FAU still boasts a bevy of talent at the skill positions and should be able maintain. With Smith gone, the starting quarterbacking job has been left to senior Jeff Van Camp, who played in 10 games and threw for 1,372 yards and 12 touchdowns. While FAU is more known for its passing, it also boasted the conference’s top rusher in junior Alfred Morris, who rushed for 1,392 yards and 11 touchdowns. A throw-happy offense usually attracts plenty of effective receivers, such is the case here. A big concern is a line that allowed 21 sacks and was mostly replaced…The defensive unit should be better with a year of experience and some spring practice to work out any kinks. Fortunately, the front four returns the team’s top two sack men in tackle Dino Cox and Kevin Cyrille. Even with the loss of Ed Bradwell, the linebacker corps boast the best experience and pedigree…While a bowl bid can’t be ruled out, given the strength of the skill positions on offense, the offensive line may go through some growing pains and the front seven on defense must stop the run on a more consistent basis in order to finish with a winning record. If the stop unit fails to come together, Schnellenberger will need Van Camp and Morris to have huge games and win via shootouts.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* FLA ATLANTIC is on a 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) run on the road in conference games . The Average Score was FLA ATLANTIC 28.6, OPPONENT 24.7
FLA INTERNATIONAL GOLDEN PANTHERS
Head Coach: Mario Cristobal, 4th year (9-27 SU)
2009 Record: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 3
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -12.4 (#110 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -11.3 (#108 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 19 (#110 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/11 - RUTGERS
9/18 - at Texas A&M
9/25 - at Maryland
10/2 - at Pittsburgh
10/9 - W KENTUCKY
10/16 - at North Texas
10/30 - at Fla Atlantic
11/6 - LA MONROE
11/13 - at Troy
11/20 - at LA Lafayette
11/27 - ARKANSAS ST
12/4 - MIDDLE TENN ST
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-9, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 17-19 (47%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 8-6 (57%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 9-13 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 10-13 (43%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-3, 8-8 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-5, 12-15 (44%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 31.83 (78)
Points Scored - Allowed: 22.9 (88) - 35.3 (111)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 321.7 (100) - 491.6 (119)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.51 (112) - 6.58 (112)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 2.99 (113) - 5.36 (111)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.00 (107) - 8.26 (111)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (83)
2010 OUTLOOK
Year Three of the Mario Cristobal rebuilding project was supposed to be when Florida International turned the corner. Instead, the Golden Panthers dropped six of their first seven games, en route to a 3-9 campaign. The offseason got worse when the team lost running back Kendall Berry in a fatal stabbing on the school’s campus. It remains to be seen how the Golden Panthers will respond…There isn’t a lot FIU did correctly on offense and the putrid 105.0 YPG on the ground, and 2.99 yards per carry, was easily the worst in the Sun Belt Conference. The passing attack was only slightly better, and senior QB Wayne Younger is expected to man the controls, but it would not be a surprise to see junior Wesley Carroll get some snaps. With no running back above the 400-yard rushing mark, one can see why FIU was a bit of a joke when trying to establish the ground game. A line that allowed a porous 34 sacks must improve dramatically if Younger is to gain confidence in the pocket. Seniors Brad Serini (center) and Cedric Mack (right guard) lead the starting five, hoping to improve the run blocking…For all the bashing of the offense, the defense was probably worse, allowing 491.6 YPG and 53 touchdowns would make any respectable head coach vomit. Losing a few starters on the front four might be a good thing for FIU. Linebacker is clearly the best part of the stop unit, since the secondary was constantly shredded...After last season’s setback, it may take Cristobal a year or so to build the program back up like he did in 2008. The team will also be facing early season games versus Rutgers, Texas A&M, Maryland and Pittsburgh. Don’t be surprised if the Golden Panthers have a similar season like a year ago and Cristobal is given the boot.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* FLA INTERNATIONAL is on a 12-1 UNDER the total (+10.9 Units) run at home coming off a loss against the spread . The Average Score was FLA INTERNATIONAL 19.8, OPPONENT 23.6
LA LAFAYETTE RAGIN'CAJUNS
Head Coach: Ricky Bustle, 9th year (38-56 SU)
2009 Record: 6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -8.2 (#102 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -11.3 (#107 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 20 (#109 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at Georgia
9/11 - ARKANSAS ST
9/25 - MIDDLE TENN ST
10/2 - at North Texas
10/8 - OKLAHOMA ST
10/16 - at Troy
10/23 - W KENTUCKY
10/30 - at Ohio U
11/6 - at Ole Miss
11/13 - at Fla Atlantic
11/20 - FLA INTERNATIONAL
11/27 - at LA Monroe
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 6-6, 15-21 (42%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 17-17 (50%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 6-9 (40%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 11-8 (58%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 11-11 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 8-5 (62%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-4, 9-12 (43%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 27.17 (109)
Points Scored - Allowed: 22.2 (93) - 30.3 (97)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 361.8 (76) - 404.3 (93)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.01 (98) - 5.99 (96)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.57 (94) - 4.61 (95)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.65 (90) - 7.94 (98)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (43)
2010 OUTLOOK
Three 6-6 records in the last four years put La.-Lafayette on a mission for that elusive winning campaign and an even more unattainable bowl bid, which was last realized in 1970. Head coach Ricky Bustle has certainly brought more wins to the program in his eight-year tenure, but fans are certainly antsy about attaining a seven- or eight-win season…La.-Lafayette did not score as many points as it did in 2008, but won plenty of close games on some timely scores, including the 17-15 upset of Kansas State. Placing seventh in the Sun Belt Conference in rushing offense, a little more out of the running game could be the difference in 2010. Fortunately, Bustle has plenty of stability behind center with junior Chris Masson, whose breakout season has upped the ante. His ability to both throw and tuck it under and run should bode well in tight situations. The committee approach is the name of the game at running back while wide receiver and tight end provide the most depth on the offense and should be better as Masson progresses. The line took the biggest hit by losing three starters...The stop unit was decent at times last season, but certainly not near conference-title worthy or consistent. In fact, the Cajuns allowed 30+ points six times on the season. Five starters return… The Ragin’ Cajuns seemed to be right where they were a year ago with plenty of potential and plenty of nagging questions. An opening-day tilt with SEC power Georgia will quickly parlay into key conference affairs at home with Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee, meaning the learning curve will be steep and the margin of error very slim.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* LA LAFAYETTE is 11-2 OVER the total (+8.8 Units) as favorites since '07. The Average Score was LA LAFAYETTE 37.4, OPPONENT 30.4
LA MONROE WARHAWKS
Head Coach: Todd Berry, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 3-3-5 - Starters Returning: 4
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -1.8 (#79 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -7.3 (#95 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 22 (#101 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/11 - at Arkansas (in Little Rock, AR)
9/18 - at Arkansas St
9/25 - SE LOUISIANA
10/2 - at Auburn
10/9 - FLA ATLANTIC
10/16 - at W Kentucky
10/23 - at Middle Tenn St
10/30 - TROY
11/6 - at Fla International
11/13 - at LSU
11/20 - NORTH TEXAS
11/27 - LA LAFAYETTE
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 6-6, 16-20 (44%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 18-16 (53%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 7-6 (54%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 11-10 (52%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 13-9 (59%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-2, 5-4 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-4, 12-12 (50%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 27.08 (110)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.6 (72) - 27.3 (74)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 392.3 (48) - 348.7 (44)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.76 (44) - 5.11 (40)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.52 (39) - 3.39 (23)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.60 (38) - 6.71 (42)
Turnover Differential: -0.4 (87)
2010 OUTLOOK
The inability to post a winning record in seven seasons cost Charlie Weatherbie his job, despite a respectable 6-6 record that included a brutal out-of-conference schedule. Former Louisiana-Monroe offensive coordinator Todd Berry returns to the head coaching ranks for the first time since 2003 with Army. Only time will tell if Berry can win more than six games and shake up the Sun Belt Conference’s relatively rigid hierarchy…Running the ball was the way to go for the Warhawks, who averaged 183.9 yards per game on the ground and tallied 21 touchdowns. Now, if only the passing attack can cut down on the interceptions, then Berry’s team could upend the likes of a Troy or a Middle Tennessee. The quarterback situation is uncertain, but the rushing attack boasts a second-team All-Conference tailback in Frank Goodin, a senior who rushed for 1,126 yards and 13 touchdowns. Luther Ambrose leads a receiving corps that will be reshuffled after losing a few playmakers. A line that allowed only 16 sacks is young, but should continue with more solid run blocking…Tops in the Sun Belt Conference in rushing defense and second in total defense, the stop unit kept Louisiana-Monroe in most games and won a few, too. The Warhawks were also third best in the conference in scoring defense (27.3 PPG) and sacks (27), which showed the starting 11 could defend against the run and pass. The 3-3-5 scheme Berry employs stars an extremely solid front three…While the Warhawks might hit a few potholes in Berry’s first season, don’t be surprised if this team wins five conference games like it did a year ago. To be fair, the former Army coach did not have a lot to work with at Bear Mountain and this current squad grabbed road wins at Florida Atlantic and North Texas last season. A few lucky bounces and the glass may be half full and not half empty.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* LA MONROE is on a 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) run as road underdogs of 7 points or less . The Average Score was LA MONROE 26.5, OPPONENT 21.8
MIDDLE TENN STATE BLUE RAIDERS
Head Coach: Rick Stockstill, 5th year (27-23 SU)
2009 Record: 10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +8.3 (#30 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3.7 (#52 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 36 (#62 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - MINNESOTA
9/11 - AUSTIN PEAY
9/18 - at Memphis
9/25 - at LA Lafayette
10/5 - TROY
10/16 - at Georgia Tech
10/23 - LA MONROE
11/2 - at Arkansas St
11/13 - NORTH TEXAS
11/20 - at W Kentucky
11/27 - FLA ATLANTIC
12/4 - at Fla International
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 10-3, 20-17 (54%)
Overall ATS: 10-3, 22-14 (61%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 10-5 (67%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 12-9 (57%)
vs Conference ATS: 7-1, 13-10 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-0, 12-3 (80%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-3, 10-15 (40%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 26.77 (112)
Points Scored - Allowed: 32.0 (23) - 23.7 (50)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 421.7 (27) - 354.8 (50)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.74 (46) - 4.85 (26)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.66 (33) - 3.47 (27)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.03 (69) - 6.44 (34)
Turnover Differential: +0.9 (7)
2010 OUTLOOK
There was an air that a slew of talented starters returning would be the catalyst for better things to come for Middle Tennessee. Even with the loss to Sun Belt champion Troy, the Blue Raiders ripped off seven straight wins to become bowl eligible and then dropped 42 points on Southern Miss in a victory in the New Orleans Bowl. Even better, the 2010 schedule has plenty of beatable opponents for a replication of last season’s 10-3 mark, including a visit by Minnesota to Murfreesboro to open the season…Name an offensive category and head coach Rick Stockstill’s team either topped the charts or was in the top three. The unit averaged 421.7 yards a game. Aside from driving the team bus, senior quarterback Dwight Dasher did everything and was the Sun Belt’s second-best passer (2,789 yards, 23 touchdowns) to go along with his MVP Honors at the New Orleans Bowl. Dasher’s 3,943 all-purpose yards and 36 touchdowns set a new school record and his 1,154 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns shows how much he impacts the running game. YES, he is back and should be bolstered by a talented group of running backs. Despite three receivers departing, the Blue Raiders boast a slew of capable replacements, and four of the o-line spots will have last season’s starters…The ability to limit opponents on third down and 38 sacks (both tops in the Sun Belt) were a big reason Middle Tennessee won 10 games. The biggest uncertainty will be at linebacker now that the top two tacklers are gone. Still, six starters are back and this unit is certainly capable of holding up its end of the bargain…If the defense does come together, there’s no reason why Middle Tennessee won’t make a bowl game. The offense will score a ton of points. The Oct. 5 home game against Troy could decide the Sun Belt title.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, MIDDLE TENN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in the second half of the season. The Average Score was MIDDLE TENN ST 35.3, OPPONENT 23.5
NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN
Head Coach: Todd Dodge, 4th year (5-31 SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -9.0 (#105 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -11.3 (#109 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 16 (#114 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at Clemson
9/11 - RICE
9/18 - at Army
9/25 - at Fla Atlantic
10/2 - LA LAFAYETTE
10/9 - ARKANSAS ST
10/16 - FLA INTERNATIONAL
10/30 - at W Kentucky
11/6 - TROY
11/13 - at Middle Tenn St
11/20 - at LA Monroe
11/27 - KANSAS ST
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 5-31 (14%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 14-21 (40%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 5-10 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 9-11 (45%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 9-14 (39%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 1-2 (33%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-6, 13-19 (41%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 27.25 (107)
Points Scored - Allowed: 26.6 (63) - 35.6 (112)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 408.7 (36) - 412.3 (97)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.89 (39) - 5.87 (90)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.29 (7) - 4.85 (102)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.49 (95) - 7.25 (73)
Turnover Differential: -1.2 (117)
2010 OUTLOOK
If you thought rebuilding New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina was slow, you might want to look at head coach Todd Dodge’s three-year tenure at North Texas. A miserable 1-11 campaign in 2008 was followed up by a miserable 2-10 in ‘09, making the upward climb back to respectability tortoise-like to say the least. The bright side is 82 percent of the starting lineups return, including the Sun Belt’s top scorer in Lance Dunbar and tackling machine Craig Robertson…Fourth in the Sun Belt in total yardage (408.7 YPG) and scoring offense (26.6 PPG) is an indication fortunes may be turning. The one area the Mean Green must improve is holding onto the ball, as the team was last in the conference in turnovers at a minus-14. Riley Dodge, the coach’s son, will move from quarterback to wide receiver, opening a TBD quarterback battle. Pacing the rushing attack are Dunbar and his 1,378 yards, 17 touchdowns and a hefty 6.9 yards per carry. Adding Dodge to an already effective receiving trio may transform the Mean Green into one of the top passing attacks in the conference. The line should be competent returning in full…Losing five games by four points or fewer may have been prevented by a key turnover, which North Texas had only 15. Still, there are positive signs with a unit that was the Sun Belt’s best against the pass (216.8 YPG). A better effort stopping the run could go a long way. The secondary is the soundest part of the defense…If Stalin was big on five-year plans, Dodge may be a man who believes in four-year cycles to turn around a program. All the talent is in place to move up the standings and non-league affairs versus Army and Rice are games the Mean Green can win.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, NORTH TEXAS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points. The Average Score was NORTH TEXAS 22.5, OPPONENT 43.5
TROY TROJANS
Head Coach: Larry Blakeney, 20th year (153-77-1 SU)
2009 Record: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-2-5 - Starters Returning: 3
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.9 (#49 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3.7 (#53 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 34 (#73 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - BOWLING GREEN
9/11 - at Oklahoma St
9/18 - at UAB
9/25 - ARKANSAS ST
10/5 - at Middle Tenn St
10/16 - LA LAFAYETTE
10/30 - at LA Monroe
11/6 - at North Texas
11/13 - FLA INTERNATIONAL
11/20 - at S Carolina
11/27 - W KENTUCKY
12/4 - at Fla Atlantic
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-4, 25-13 (66%)
Overall ATS: 9-4, 24-12 (67%)
at Home ATS: 5-0, 11-3 (79%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-4, 13-9 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 7-1, 17-6 (74%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-2, 17-8 (68%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 7-4 (64%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.85 (91)
Points Scored - Allowed: 33.7 (16) - 29.8 (92)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 485.7 (3) - 424.5 (103)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.49 (12) - 5.89 (91)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.37 (54) - 4.17 (73)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.27 (14) - 7.35 (79)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (95)
2010 OUTLOOK
Four consecutive Sun Belt Conference titles (two shared) and three bowl appearances have certainly raised Troy’s expectations to almost Yankee-esque status, meaning head coach Larry Blakeney now expects his troops to make college football’s version of the postseason nearly every year. Even George Steinbrenner would be overjoyed with a perfect 8-0 Sun Belt record and the win over UAB showed the Trojans can punch above their weight…As gaudy as the numbers were in 2008, Troy outdid those tallies in convincing fashion in ‘09 in passing offense (336.5 YPG) and total offense (485.7) by margins of 90 and 71 yards, respectively. The Trojans also led the Sun Belt in scoring (33.7 PPG) and seniors RB DuJuan Harris and WR Jerrel Jernigan—the team’s two main contributors in stats and leadership—will likely do so again. The big question will be at quarterback, where standout Levi Brown has departed, leaving the open slot to a handful of candidates. The line lost only two starters and should be ready to go for the most part…Troy was second in the Sun Belt in sacks (33) and was fourth against the run. The problem is eight starters are gone, including the two top tacklers. End Brandon Lang and his 8.5 sacks are gone too, but Blakeney feels he may boast another gem in Jonathan Massaquoi. The secondary came out the most unscathed, and should be better after finishing dead last against the pass (286.8 YPG) and allowing an astounding 29 touchdowns…While nobody should expect another 8-0 conference record, Blakeney expects his players to come in and make an impact right away. If Parker makes the smooth transition, the Trojans have enough talent in the skill positions to grab one of the two bowl spots the Sun Belt gets. Hopefully, the defense can use the three non-league games in the beginning of the season as a primer for conference play.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TROY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) coming off an OVER the total since '07. The Average Score was TROY 37.1, OPPONENT 21.5
W KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS
Head Coach: Willie Taggart, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 0-12 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: West Coast - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -19.2 (#113 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -18.8 (#114 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 11 (#118 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at Nebraska
9/11 - at Kentucky
9/18 - INDIANA
9/25 - at S Florida
10/9 - at Fla International
10/16 - LA MONROE
10/23 - at LA Lafayette
10/30 - NORTH TEXAS
11/6 - FLA ATLANTIC
11/13 - at Arkansas St
11/20 - MIDDLE TENN ST
11/27 - at Troy
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 0-12, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 8-14 (36%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 3-7 (30%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 5-7 (42%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 5-8 (38%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-0, 0-2 (0%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-5, 8-11 (42%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 26.58 (113)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.4 (104) - 39.6 (119)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 321.7 (101) - 478.3 (118)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.10 (93) - 6.92 (118)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.70 (26) - 5.63 (113)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.67 (110) - 9.12 (119)
Turnover Differential: -1 (115)
2010 OUTLOOK
After two years of being an Independent, a miserable 0-12 campaign was not what Western Kentucky had in mind for its first year in the Sun Belt. In fact, the defeats came so fast and furious that the upper brass in Bowling Green decided to part ways with coach David Elson in early November, even with three games left. The Hilltoppers decided to go with a former standout quarterback of their own—Willie Taggart—to revive a program that was dominant on the Division I-AA level, but is now having trouble getting traction in I-A…Nine starters return to an offense that was at the bottom of most statistical categories, although the team was fourth in the conference in rushing with a 173.8 YPG average. Protecting the quarterback and converting on third downs will have to be improved if games are to be won. Junior-college transfer Matt Pelesasa locked down the starting QB job in spring ball mostly due to his knowledge and ability to run a newly installed West Coast Offense. A line that allowed a putrid 39 sacks has an improved left side…Allowing nearly 40 points (39.6) and 478.3 yards per contest was a major reason Elson was let go, as the stop unit surrendered more than 60 points on two occasions. The linebacking corps is clearly the best part of the unit. Taggart, obviously an offensive mind by trade, has nine defensive returning starters to lean on…Taggart may be one of four men in school history to have his jersey retired, but the rookie head coach needs to get his current players to play like he used to in the mid-1990s. Even with a slew of starters returning on both sides, the rebuilding process will be a long and arduous one, meaning a one- or two-win season seems like the most realistic bet.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* W KENTUCKY is 1-7 ATS over the L2 years when it goes OVER the total, 7-6 ATS when UNDER.
Sun Belt Conference Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Be careful, FBS. We just may find a member of the Sun Belt Conference playing in a BCS bowl game sooner than later. And, no, we're not suffering from sun-spots.
If it can, the SBC champion will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if that team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, or if that team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and its ranking is higher that that of a champion of a conference that has an automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
Just thought we'd clarify that given the fact that the last year's champion, Middle Tennessee State, concluded the season with 10 wins, the first Sun Belt Conference team in history to reach the 10-win mark.
Never shy about take on the big boys, Arkansas State defeated Texas A&M last year in a game which snapped the Aggies' 20-game winging streak in home openers and handed them just their fourth loss over their last 50 non-conference games. The following week, MTSU won its first-ever home game against a team from a BCS guaranteed conference with a win over Maryland.
In previous season teams from the Sun Belt have defeated powers such as Alabama, Missouri and Oklahoma State.
Sure, they may be hands-down the weakest of the 11 BCS conference affiliates, and it's league champ won't be guaranteed a BCS bowl, but don't tell them. They've having fun in the sun.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.
ARKANSAS STATE – 9 / 10
TEAM THEME: JONESING FOR MORE
HC Steve Roberts has led ASU to its most victories in an 8-year span since 1985-1992, but the Red Wolves only have one bowl appearance to show for it. While Roberts has big shoes to fill on offense with the departures of star QB Corey Leonard and leading rusher Reggie Arnold, he'll one again lean on ol' reliable - a defense that has ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the Sun Belt each of the last four seasons. And with 10 returning starters back on that side of the ball, why not! With seven road games sprinkled throughout the 2010 schedule, including five before the calendar hits mid-October, Roberts will once again need to rely on home cookin' if his Wolves hope to become bowl eligible this season. His solid 29-10 record at ASU Stadium in his nine seasons in Jonesboro should keep the home folks dancing.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Louisville (10/2)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC – 3 / 9
TEAM THEME: 'X' MARKS THE SPOT
It's Year 10 for the Owls and their master architect, Howard Schnellenberger. Despite taking over a program from scratch, Howie probably didn't plan on designing a 53-55 record over the first nine years. Especially when you consider a portfolio that included three national championships in Alabama under Paul 'Bear' Bryant and an unbeaten season in Miami under Don Shula. He also had his blueprint on the 'U' during the start of their glory days. To keep the building from crumbling, Schnellenberger's hopes rest on the arm of QB Jeff Van Camp. Van Camp replaces four-year starter Rusty Smith, the first Owl ever drafted by the NFL. Eight road games and heavy graduation losses will put the program builder to task in 2010. It's a little too sketchy for our liking.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. La Monroe (10/9)
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL – 7 / 4
TEAM THEME: CAN YOU SEE WHAT I SEE?
A disappointing 2009 season was capped off with a fourth straight loss to crosstown rival FAU. Making matters worse, the 2010 campaign started with the tragic stabbing death of starting RB Kendall Berry. After making gigantic strides with five wins in 2008, Mario's 'Cristo-bal' probably didn't envision a 3-9 follow-up. However, when your defense gets torched for 492 YPG – the second worst in the country – it doesn't take Madame Cleo to predict the inevitable. A season that had high hopes, with some even whispering bowl, wilted in the Miami sun. With the senseless loss of Berry, the 2010 campaign doesn't hold much promise, either. The Panthers do return their best player, WR T.Y. Hilton, who caught 57 passes despite nagging injuries, but until he learns to play defense, we'll look for game and fortune elsewhere.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Rutgers (9/11)
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE – *5 / 8
TEAM THEME: CALL ME
The Cajuns have been bowl eligible four of their last five seasons, yet are still awaiting their first-ever FBS bowl bid. It's obvious a 6-6 season won't have Sun Belt coaches sitting by the phone. If HC Rickey Bustle expects to hear from Ma Bell this season, he'll have to retool an offense that slipped 88 YPG and 11 PPG. Bustle will call on QB Chris Masson to lead the way. Masson enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2009 with nine 200 yard-games on 222 completions. To their credit, the disciplined Cajuns do not beat themselves with penalties as they remain the least penalized team in the conference since Bustle's arrival nine years ago. Insiders say the Cajuns insist on being called Louisiana – not Louisiana Lafayette. With a schedule that includes seven road games and four non-conference bowlers, we think they'll be happy just being called.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. North Texas (10/2)
LOUISIANA-MONROE – *6 / 4
TEAM THEME: BERRY INTERESTING
Despite improving an offense by 54 YPG, a defense by 96 YPG and adding a couple of check marks to the win column, Charlie Weatherbie was let go after seven seasons in Monroe. With no bowl appearances and no winning seasons along the way, we can't argue with the firing. But we can question the hiring of Todd Berry. UNLV's offensive coordinator the past three years, Berry had a four-stint as Army head coach from 2000-2003. While his Cadets set 25 team records during his tenure, Berry marched out of West Point with a somber 5-42 mark and a 15-game losing streak. With just a combined 10 starters back, it may take some time before Berry has the Monroe band playing Dixie. One thing is certain: Berry will need to improve on his 0-22 SU and 6-16 ATS mark in games off a win or loss of 17 or fewer points if he hopes to finally taste a winning season.
PASS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE – *8 / 6
TEAM THEME: BLUE BY YOU
We'll be the first to admit that we're big fans of Blue Raiders HC Rick Stockstill. His team has won 20 of its 29 conference games under his guidance and was the first Sun Belt team to win 10 games in a season last year. A victory in the New Orleans Bowl capped off that successful 2009 campaign and the present looks anything but blue for the men from Murfreesboro. SR QB Dwight Dasher, a 2nd team all-SBC performer and MVP of the New Orleans Bowl, returns to lead an offense that ranked No. 7 in the nation in total offense. There's plenty more to like about this team, especially a schedule that includes only two winning teams on the docket. It looks like 'Blue' skies ahead for Stockstill and his potent Raiders.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida Atlantic (11/27)
NORTH TEXAS – *10 / 8
TEAM THEME: GREEN WITH ENVY
Despite winning only two games last year, the Eagles showed marked improvement on both sides of the ball and with 18 starters back, should be flying higher than they have in a long time. It's been six years since the 'Green' has showed any sort of 'Mean', but that should change behind a vastly improved offensive line led by tackle Victor Gill that returns four starters. HC Todd Dodge handed the reins to his son Riley last year and the freshman QB responded by leading the conference with a 67.7 completion percentage – a NTSU record. Lance Dunbar is also back to help carry the load. Dunbar led the Sun Belt in rushing and scoring, despite starting only eight games in 2009. With a career 5-31 record, we wouldn't blame the 4th-year HC for allowing his team to get downright nasty this season. He also won't have to 'Dodge' a schedule that finds only three winning foes.
PLAY ON: vs. Florida International (10/16)
TROY – 6 / 3
TEAM THEME: BYE, BYE LEVI BROWN
The four-time defending conference champions, and the first team to go undefeated in Sun Belt play since 2004, will have their work cut out for them in 2010. An offense that carried the load last season returns only six starters – and that doesn't include record-setting QB Levi Brown. It will also feature a new offensive coordinator for the third time in five years. It gets worse on defense, much worse. Only three starters and no linemen are back from a defense that was torched for 425 yards per game, including 287 through the air. Even the schedule doesn't protect these Trojans as they're on the road for seven games. HC Larry Blakeney's 21st-year at the Troy helm (only Paterno and Beamer have more tenure), may be his toughest yet and he'll have to do his usual home cooking (83-12-1) to ensure a 5th straight winning season. This bunch will be 'up' for the challenge.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. South Carolina (11/20)
WESTERN KENTUCKY – *9 / 9
TEAM THEME: QUINCY, M.E.
An 8-year run under David Elson came to a crashing halt last season when a winless campaign sealed his fate. Enter Willie Taggart, RB coach at Stanford the last three seasons. Prior to that stint, Taggart served an 8-year tenure as an assistant with the Hilltoppers. “WKU is in my DNA… I've always bled red since day one and I know what it takes to win here. I know what type of direction we want to go,” says Taggart. It better be up, as these stiffs have lost 20 games in a row while compiling a 2-22 record since attaining FBS status two years ago. Returning is QB Kawaun Jakes, who started nine games last season, and RB Bobby Rainey, a 2nd team all-SBC selection who rushed for 939 yards in 2009. Forensics experts are standing by.
PASS!