Sunday Gameday News and Notes

St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Oddsmakers currently have the 49ers listed as 7-point favorites versus the Rams, while the game's total is sitting at 43½.

The Rams lost to the Jets 47-3 as a 9.5-point underdog in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43.5).

Marc Bulger passed for only 65 yards with an interception for St. Louis, while Kenneth Darby rushed for 32 yards on four carries.

Shaun Hill went 19-of-40 for 217 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions for San Francisco in its 29-24 loss to Arizona on Monday night.

Arizona couldn't cover as 11-point home favorites as the teams played over the 49-point total listed by sportsbooks.

Current streak:
St. Louis has lost 3 straight games.
San Francisco has lost 6 straight games.

Team records:
St. Louis: 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS
San Francisco: 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS

St. Louis most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing within the division are 2-8

San Francisco most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 0-10
When playing within the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of St. Louis's last 23 games on the road
St. Louis is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

Next up:
St. Louis home to Chicago, Sunday, November 23
San Francisco at Dallas, Sunday, November 23

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 3-point favorites versus the Seahawks, while the game's total is sitting at 47½.

Anquan Boldin's 4-yard touchdown reception with 4:21 remaining lifted the Cardinals over the 49ers 29-24 on Monday night.

Arizona couldn't cover as 11-point home favorites as the teams played over the 49-point total listed by sportsbooks.

The Seahawks lost to Miami 21-19 as a 7.5-point underdog in Week 10. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42).

Seneca Wallace threw for 185 yards with a touchdown for Seattle, while Julius Jones rushed for 88 yards on 16 carries in the loss.

Current streak:
Arizona has won 2 straight games.
Seattle has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Arizona: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
Seattle: 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS

Arizona most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 7-3

Seattle most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

Next up:
Arizona home to NY Giants, Sunday, November 23
Seattle home to Washington, Sunday, November 23

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Oddsmakers currently have the Titans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Jaguars, while the game's total is sitting at 39½.

The Titans defeated Chicago 21-14 as a 3-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (37).

Kerry Collins passed for 289 yards with a pair of touchdown passes, while Bo Scaife caught 10 passes for 78 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Jaguars defeated Detroit 38-14 as a 6-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43).

Maurice Jone-Drew rushed for three touchdown while ranking up 70 yards on 11 carries for Jacksonville, while David Garrard passed for 238 yards with a pair of touchdown passes in the win.

Current streak:
Tennessee has won 9 straight games.

Team records:
Tennessee: 9-0 SU, 8-0-1 ATS
Jacksonville: 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS

Tennessee most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 8-2

Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Jacksonville's last 21 games
Jacksonville is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 12 games when playing at home against Tennessee

Next up:
Tennessee home to NY Jets, Sunday, November 23
Jacksonville home to Minnesota, Sunday, November 23

San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 5-point favorites versus the Chargers, while the game's total is sitting at 42.

The Chargers defeated Kansas City 20-19 as a 15-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (47.5).

Philip Rivers passed for 316 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, while Antonio Gates caught eight passes for 66 yards and a touchdown.

The Steelers lost to Indianapolis 24-20 as a 3-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (39).

Ben Roethlisberger threw for 284 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions for Pittsburgh and Mewelde Moore rushed for 57 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries.

Team records:
San Diego: 4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS
Pittsburgh: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS

San Diego most recently:
When playing in November are 8-2
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 5-5

Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
San Diego is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of San Diego's last 21 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego

Next up:
San Diego home to Indianapolis, Sunday, November 23
Pittsburgh home to Cincinnati, Thursday, November 20

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins

Oddsmakers currently have the Cowboys listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Redskins, while the game's total is sitting at 43.

The Cowboys lost to the Giants 35-14 as an 8.5-point underdog in Week 9. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Brooks Bollinger threw for 63 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Dallas, while Terrell Owens caught five passes for 36 yards with a TD.

Jason Campbell was 24-of-43 for 206 yards with two interceptions for Washington in its 23-6 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 9.

Pittsburgh cashed as 2.5-point road underdogs as the teams played under the 38-point total listed by oddsmakers.

Team records:
Dallas: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS
Washington: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS

Dallas most recently:
When playing in November are 8-2
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5

Washington most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Dallas's last 24 games on the road
Dallas is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Next up:
Dallas home to San Francisco, Sunday, November 23
Washington at Seattle, Sunday, November 23

Week 11 betting trends: Healthy 'Hawks feeling no love
By ROB GEREIN

Seattle will have a healthy line-up this weekend, but that hasn’t swayed NFL bettors heading into the Seahawks divisional tilt against Arizona.

The 3-point favorite Cardinals are Week 11’s most popular public pick, getting nearly three of every four wagers (74 percent) placed on Sunday’s game in Seattle (4:05 pm ET, FOX).

Sportingbet.com oddsmaker David Main said the public may change its tune on Seattle after this weekend.

“The Seahawks get (quarterback) Matt Hasselbeck back which, combined with the return to health of their receiving corps, means Seattle will have as close to their best starting offence out on the field as they have all season,” Main said.

Along with Hasselbeck, who returns after missing five games with a bulging disc in his back, the Seahawks also get WR Deion Branch back.

Another popular pick this week is Cleveland, which is getting 66 percent of the bets as a 5-point dog at Buffalo, which has lost three straight.

“Buffalo has not looked good of late and hasn’t won a game since Week 7,” noted Main. “(Browns QB) Brady Quinn had a strong debut and bettors seem to have already jumped onto the Quinn bandwagon.”

And to no surprise, the teams with the NFL’s best records – the New York Giants and Tennessee – are getting lots of action this weekend.

The 8-1 SU (straight up) Giants (7-point home favorites) are getting more than 60 percent of bets on their game against Baltimore while 9-0 SU Tennessee (3-point road favorite) is getting 58 percent of wagers on its tilt with Jacksonville.

“The Giants-Ravens game will be interesting in particular as the Ravens are currently on a 4-0 run during which time they have scored an average of 33.5 points per game,” said Main. “Granted these wins were against the Dolphins, Raiders, Browns and Texans – but these games will have given the team a great confidence boost, especially rookie Joe Flacco.”

Other popular picks include Philadelphia (9-point road fave) getting 60 percent of bets against Cincinnati and New Orleans (-5.5 road faves) attracting 63 percent of wagers against Kansas City.

NFL Week Eleven: Five Stats You Need to Know
Scott Rickenbach

Heading into Week Eleven of the NFL please note these stats (all are ATS – against the spread, unless otherwise noted) are definitely items to consider as you look at the deep NFL card. However, this does not mean these are “plays” in the true sense of the word. That said, the hope is that the ATS information below helps you as you “traverse” this week’s NFL card! As always, best of luck in all your sports gaming from Scott Rickenbach

1) The Atlanta Falcons are 12-4 in their last 16 games against teams from the AFC. Adding more “angle power” for the Falcons this week is that Atlanta has done very well when favored at home against a team from outside the NFC South. They have gotten the money in six of their last nine such situations. Note that the Falcons are hosting Denver this week and the Broncos, unlike Atlanta, have struggled when facing a team from outside their conference. Denver is just 2-8 in their last 10 games versus NFC opposition. Also, the Broncos have gotten the cash just two out of their last ten road games overall. They simply do not travel well or, at least, that’s been the case dating all the way back to early last season!

2) The Baltimore Ravens are 12-6 in their last 18 games against teams from the NFC. Overall, the Ravens have cashed tickets for their backers in eight of their last ten games. While they are off of a blowout win over the Texans, the Giants are coming off of a tough divisional battle with the Eagles last week. New York did get the outright win as a dog in Philly last Sunday but night but they are just 2-5 when favored against a team from the AFC. This also clearly appears to be a flat spot for the Giants.

3) The Green Bay Packers, in their last dozen games at home, have failed to get the cash just three times! This week they are hosting the Bears where it’s rumored that Kyle Orton will get the start. However, if it’s Rex Grossman, note that the Bears are just 2-10 in his 12 starts…ouch! Also, even if Orton can start, how much will Chicago have left in the tank after coming up just short against undefeated Tennessee last week? The Packers are also off of a tough loss but being at home could be the key for them here!

4) The Oakland Raiders are 6-10 in their last 16 games played in the Eastern time zone. It’s a tough West to East trip for Oakland and what a mess this franchise is right now! Even when outstatting the Panthers last week they still managed to not cover! Now the Raiders find themselves on the road and when they are on the road against a team from outside the AFC West, Oakland is just 8-17 in their last 25 such games! Miami could very likely give a much better effort too after just squeaking by Seattle last week!

5) The Detroit Lions are 7-14 in their last 21 road games. Overall, Detroit has record just one straight-up win in their last 17 games and they’ve only covered five of their last 16 games! They’re visiting a Panthers team Sunday that has fared surprisingly well as a double digit favorite. Carolina has failed to cover just one in their last seven games where they were installed as a favorite of ten points or more. The Panthers did get the cover at Oakland last week but they didn’t play that well and they know it. All that does is lead one to believe that Coach John Fox will absolutely have his troops ready for a much stronger effort this week!

Weekend Football Betting Preview
by Marc Lawrence

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Series History: The Titans beat the Jaguars, 17-10, as 3-point home dogs in their season opener this year. The underdog in this series is 8-2.

Tennessee Key Stat: The Titans are 1-9 in November with a .500 or greater record versus an opponent off a double-digit win.

Jacksonville Key Stat: The Jaguars are 7-1 in November versus an opponent off back-to-back wins.

You Need To Know: Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio is 17-6 as a dog with revenge, including 13-2 if his team's win percentage is .444 or greater.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay

Series History: The Bucs are 4-1 the last five meetings and 5-0 the last five as a series host.

Minnesota Key Stat: The Vikings are 2-13 as a road dog off back-to-back wins versus a non-division NFC opponent.

Tampa Bay Key Stat: Bucs head coach Jon Gruden is 10-3 in his career with rest, including 6-1 at home.

You Need To Know: The Bucs are 3-1 SU and 4-0 In The Stats since switching to Jeff Garcia as their starting quarterback this season.

Dallas at Washington

Series History: The Redskins upset the Cowboys, 26-24, as 10,5-point underdogs at Dallas in Week Three this season, improving to 6-1 the last 7 games in this series.

Dallas Key Stat: The Cowboys are 10-4 with rest versus an opponent off a loss.

Washington Key Stat: The Redskins are 1-13 in November off a non-division game versus and opponent off a SU and ATS loss.

You Need To Know: NFL teams are 6-16 in their next game after facing Mike Tomlin's Steelers.

Other Top Trends for this weekend: The Atlanta Falcons are 1-10 off a double-digit as a .500 or greater teams versus a .500 or greater team... The Miami Dolphins are 2-17 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points when playing off a win... The 49ers are 12-0 as a favorite of 14 or less points versus the Rams.

Betting on NFL Week 11
Doug Upstone

Can the Jacksonville Jaguars be the first team to knock Tennessee off the unbeaten perch? The answer will be forthcoming later Sunday evening. (Free Foxsheet for this AFC South matchup) If physical, tough football is your preference, than the Baltimore and New York Giants fracas should be quite satisfying. NFL sports bettors have two old NFC Central games they can reminisce about, Chicago at Green Bay and Minnesota at Tampa Bay. If San Diego is going to finally emerge as serious contender, they will have to do so at Pittsburgh. Teams like the Chargers and Tampa Bay off three straight spread losses are 5-2 ATS the last two weeks. Bodogglife.com provides the Week 11 numbers.

Baltimore at New York Giants (Giants -7, 41.5)

The inevitable thought of Super Bowl XXXV always seems to crop up when Baltimore and New York get together once every four years. However, most of those players who played that day are gone and the Giants (8-1, 7-2 ATS) redeemed that Super Bowl defeat by stunning the world last February. Sporting a 5-2 mark versus AFC foes (4-3 ATS) in the last two years, Big Blue will try for its third win against an AFC North opponent after slipping past Cincinnati in Week 3 and notching the huge victory over Pittsburgh in Week 8.

Head coach Tom Coughlin’s team will get to test how good the running game is against a Ravens’ run defense (65.5 yards per game) that is tops in the NFL. The G-Men are 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Second only to the Cinderella Atlanta Falcons, New York’s veritable ground game is averaging 168.8 yards per contest. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw have combined for 1,501 yards and 11 touchdowns and have slammed it down against every opponent since Week 1. A cohesive offensive line, which is arguably the league’s best, has also afforded quarterback Eli Manning time to utilize play action and draw defenses up into the box for a club that is 14-5 ATS after one or more wins against the spread.

Having yet to play an NFC team this season, Baltimore (6-3, 7-2 ATS) has been bolstered by the progress of rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, whose minimal expectations compliment a pounding running game and an air-tight defense.

In his defense, Flacco hasn’t thrown an interception in four games (six touchdowns over that span), and his ability to orchestrate drives at Cleveland two weeks ago shows he can be a quick study. Still, Flacco will have to get rid of the ball quickly with the likes of Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka raining down on him.

While much has been made of Big Blue’s running trio, head coach John Harbaugh boasts an effective threesome of his own in Willis McGahee (463 yards), Le’Ron McClain (366) and rookie Ray Rice (358). In the 41-13 win at Houston, the trio combined for 148 yards and two touchdowns. Baltimore is 8-1 ATS off a road win since 2006.

Linebacker Ray Lewis and cornerback Chris McAlister are the only two remaining Baltimore players who started Super Bowl Sunday in January of 2001, and last week the latter was ruled out indefinitely with a knee injury. Because of Hurricane Ike, this will be the Ravens third consecutive road game and they are 3-15 ATS away off multiple wins and they scored 30 or more points in last outing.

Keys to the Game-

Baltimore has the ability to harass Manning and could force mistakes, like they have all season. This leads to short fields, which is a better fit for the offense. If the Ravens can be flying all around Manning, they don’t have to completely stop the run, just keep in check, making the Giants figure out other methods to beat them. The Birds are 7-1 ATS in November against foe off SU dog win. New York is extremely confident and it shows as they can beat opponents in more than one way. The running game might be slowed; nonetheless a weakened Ravens secondary could be torched deep. Flacco has not played like a rookie during four game winning streak, yet this is spot for a clunker, particularly if Giants grab the lead. New York’s offense appears fully functional and they are 8-0 ATS after gaining more than 350 yards.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (Jaguars +3, 39.5)

Sooner or later the AFC South was going to have three playoff teams in the same season, and that was the case in 2007 when Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee qualified with a combined record of 34-14. The Titans, who scored only four more points than they allowed, won their last three regular-season games and 10 overall to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2003. They were promptly eliminated in the wild-card round by San Diego, 17-6, but they haven’t lost since.

Tennessee’s amazing 2008 campaign, which began with a victory at home over Jacksonville, continued last week in Chicago as it won its ninth straight out of the gate. The Bears, with Rex Grossman at quarterback in place of the injured Kyle Orton, had 243 yards of offense in a 21-14 decision.

The Titans (8-0-1 ATS) are doing things quite different this year. They’ve shown the ability to win the close games like they did a year ago, such as a 13-10 victory in Baltimore in Week 5, a 31-21 triumph over Indianapolis in Week 8 and a 19-16 overtime win over Green Bay in Week 9, and they’ve also posted a couple of blowouts. All told, they’ve outscored opponents by a 220-117 margin and are 13-3 ATS facing division foes.

Most pundits picked the Jaguars—not the Titans—to unseat the Colts in the division and challenge for AFC supremacy after reaching the divisional round last year. But things haven’t gone according to plan in Jacksonville (4-5, 3-6 ATS), which came out of its bye at 3-3 and facing games at home against Cleveland and at Cincinnati and Detroit.

Last Sunday’s 38-14 victory over the Lions helped the Jags soothe some deep wounds left by losses to the Browns and Bengals. Their ground attack, which produced an uncharacteristic 68 yards in the defeat to previously winless Cincinnati, got untracked with 157 yards.

Quarterback David Garrard, who has one interception in the last six games after throwing four in the first three contests, went 18-for-25 for 238 yards and two touchdowns. The Jaguars are 7-0 ATS after a two game road trip the last three seasons.

Tennessee sacked Garrard seven times and picked him off twice in its 17-10 victory in Week 1. The Jaguars managed just 33 yards rushing on 17 carries, while the Titans got touchdowns from running backs LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson. The straight up winner of this matchup is 23-2 ATS in regular season conflicts.

Keys to the Game-

The Jaguars run defense has been gashed for over 122 yards per game in the last five, which should help Tennessee get back on track. The Jacksonville secondary can be had, ranking 22nd in yards allowed per attempt. Like all teams, the Titans want to stuff the Jags running game and see if Garrard can beat them thru the air. Tennessee is 15-6 ATS in road games the last three years. For coach Jack De Rio’s squad to pull the upset, they have to run the ball effectively. The offensive line is finally showing signs of coming together and they have to get Jones-Drew the ball in open spaces with a blocker. The Jacksonville linebackers have to be sure tacklers against the run, hit’em, drop’em. In the season opener, the Jaguars were burned by Collins in the blitz, play normal Cover 2 and make Titans earn points. The home team is 12-6 ATS.

Chicago at Green Bay (Packers -3.5, 42)

The way the Bears pass defense is performing, they need to find a quarterback capable of putting points on the board if Kyle Orton can’t go this week. Ranked No. 30 against the pass, Chicago (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) was picked apart by Kerry Collins for 289 yards and two touchdowns and the secondary offered little resistance in the 21-14 loss. Collins completed 30 of 41 throws and didn’t throw an interception, continuing a masterful run of good ball protection.

Across the field, Rex Grossman led the Bears to a touchdown on their opening drive, then folded like a house of cards in a tornado. With 3:12 remaining in the fourth quarter, he had just 78 yards passing, and only a late touchdown drive helped him finish with what looks like a respectable 173 yards. True to form, he did throw an interception.

Orton, originally expected to be out for nearly a month, was listed as the backup to Grossman but never saw the field. Perhaps head coach Lovie Smith will rethink the depth chart if Orton’s even remotely close to rejoining the huddle. The defense shut down the Tennessee running game but had no answers for Collins. A repeat of that performance in Green Bay could knock the Bears clear out of the top spot in the NFC Central, though they are 24-9 ATS in November road games.

Aaron Rodgers struggled in a 28-27 loss at Minnesota, completing just 15 of 26 throws for 142 yards, but his first season as a starter has been far more success than failure. Since a three-interception game at Tampa Bay in Week 4, Rodgers has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7-to-2. Green Bay is 7-2-1 ATS after suffering a defeat.

Ryan Grant (3.6 yards per carry) hasn’t earned much of the new contract he signed in August, and is unlikely to be a factor. His 100-yard effort in Week 16 in 2007 was due in large part to a 66-yard touchdown run, and Chicago’s run defense is allowing only 74.9 yards per game.

Green Bay’s defensive secondary and special teams did all the heavy lifting against Minnesota, picking off three passes—returning one for a touchdown—sacking Gus Frerotte twice and turning a Vikings’ punt into a 65-yard scoring return. The Pack defense surrendered 361 yards last Sunday and is 14-4-1 ATS after opposition broke thru the 350-yard barrier.

Keys to the Game-

Make no bones about, this is must win for Green Bay (4-5, 5-3-1 ATS). The Bears defense can be riddled with short and intermediate passes. Chicago wants to keep everything in front of them. This could allow Donald Driver and Greg Jennings to have big games, in-run-after-the-catch situations. The Packers are 9-2 ATS vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse. The loss of Nick Barnett seems important, but he and the rest of the linebackers have not tackled all season. Maybe moving players around will help. Whoever is under center for Chicago, hand the ball to Matt Forte a lot. The Pack’s run defense is pitiful, ranked 28th; find out how much they really want to get better jamming it down their throats. The Bears signal caller must be wise in throwing, with Packers defensive backs unafraid to jump routes. If Devin Hester is going to have breakout game returning punts, this will be the one against Scott (frozen rope) Frost, who has booted several line drives. Da Bears have covered eight of 10 off a loss.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (Vikings -4, 38.5)

The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Tampa Bay (6-3, 5-4 ATS). A loss at Dallas, followed up by a near disaster against one-win Kansas City, has left the Bucs holding a giant question mark on their chest. Should head coach Jon Gruden’s team be mentioned among the best in the NFC, thanks to wins over Green Bay, Chicago and Carolina? Or are they just one of many that will be battling for a playoff spot come late December?

A good litmus test awaits this Sunday with Minnesota (5-4, 3-6 ATS) coming to Raymond James Stadium riding a streak of four wins in five games. The Vikings, led by Adrian Peterson’s fourth-consecutive 100-yard game, knocked off the Packers, 28-27. They kick off a string of four road games in the next five weeks but have fared much better than the 1-3 mark indicates. Losses at Green Bay and Chicago were by 12 combined points, and the Titans took advantage of four turnovers in a 13-point win. Minnesota is 10-19-1 ATS as a non-division road underdog.

The elusive Peterson takes aim at a Tampa Bay run defense allowing just 3.8 yards per carry (12th overall) with just one runner—Kansas City’s Kolby Smith—hitting paydirt.

Gus Frerotte has at times been the type of steady-handed veteran the Vikings needed when Tarvaris Jackson went to the bench. He still makes enough bone-headed passes to what is a less than satisfactory group at wide receiver.

Despite being held without a catch last week, Bernard Berrian is providing the deep threat that opens up the middle of the field for Peterson and will be a marked man by Tampa Bay. Berrian can count on coverage from rookie cornerback Aqib Talib, the Bucs leader with three interceptions, who continues to develop into the latest in a long line of strong defensive players under coordinator Monte Kiffin. After missing time with a strained hamstring earlier in the year, Talib has broken up seven passes in the last four games. The Vikes are 2-7 ATS after throwing for less than 150 yards.

Jeff Garcia, like Frerotte, has earned every penny after taking over for Brian Griese at quarterback. Thanks in large part to the re-emergence of Antonio Bryant (20 catches, 275 yards in the last three games); the Buccaneers have a deep passing threat to complement their ground game which averages 115.8 YPG. In their last three games Tampa Bay has rushed for just 75.3 YPG and is 16-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight contests.

Keys to the Game-

These former NFC Central combatants should have a very captivating contest. Tampa Bay hopes all the injured running backs are close to 100 percent, not necessarily just to run against stout Minnesota front, but for short passing game to help Garcia. Coach Gruden believes the extra time will help red zone production, as the Bucs are scoring touchdowns less than a third of the time inside the 20. Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS off bye week. Minnesota has to discover pass rush on the road. (Last three road games 3 sacks, 15 sacks in last three games at home) Stifle the Buccaneers running game, making Garcia thrower, Minny can win. Vikings offense has been sneaky good, scoring 16 touchdowns in last five games, which is tied for first in the NFL with Houston during that period. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS last five trips to Florida’s west coast.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (Steelers -5, 42)

At first glance, this matchup looked like a preview to a potential playoff encounter later in January. It’s safe to say that Pittsburgh (4-5 ATS) has lived up to its end of the bargain and San Diego has not. At 4-5, the Chargers (4-5 ATS) are heading straight for the dreaded iceberg that doesn’t feel like moving and will ultimately do some permanent damage.

Sitting at 6-3, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has picked up where the venerable Bill Cowher left off and looks poised in guiding his team to a second straight playoff appearance under his watch. Not to be outdone, this will likely be the team’s fourth postseason run in five years with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. After hurting his shoulder in the Monday night win over Washington, Roethlisberger toughed it out by playing in the 24-20 loss to Indianapolis.

Even without running back Willie Parker and tight end Heath Miller against the Colts, the likes of Mewelde Moore, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes picked up the slack. Holmes, who has recently been in Tomlin’s doghouse, came to the forefront against the Redskins by putting the game away with a late score. Moore scored twice against Indianapolis and Ward had 116 yards on nine catches. The Steelers are 36-17 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Pittsburgh always gets great linebacker play, and few offensive lines have figured out James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, who have combined for 20.5 sacks, yet are a curious 4-12 against the spread after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

San Diego utilized the bye to rest but still struggled in a 20-19 win over Kansas City to stay a game behind Denver. Head coach Norv Turner’s team is lucky to be in the AFC West. The Chargers have won only once on the road (1-4, 2-3 ATS) and their inability to stop the pass has reared its ugly head, even with standouts Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie.

Struggling defense aside, the offense has been clicking from the stellar play of quarterback Philip Rivers, who looks poised to have his best season. Already with 21 touchdowns, Rivers will break his previous best of 22 in 2005 and could finish with 4,000 passing yards with a few more big outings. The fifth-year man is already at 2,354 with seven games to play.

With Rivers thriving, LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled for consistency, but 183 yards over a two-week period could be a sign that the old LT is back and ready to keep defenders guessing. The Bolts are 9-3 ATS following a victory.

Keys to the Game-

This one is on the San Diego coaching staff. Devise way to halt the Steelers running game and make an ailing Big Ben beat you with the pass. Close is great for horseshoes and hand grenades, but it doesn’t stop passing attacks. Get to Roethlisberger. Determine methods to get LT the ball in the running game and make certain O-Line understands tasks. Doing these items makes the Chargers 17-6 ATS against AFC opponents. Roethlisberger threw the ball pretty well in short passing attack. Start this way which could open up deep shots later, even with sore wing. There are three rivers in the Pittsburgh area, the defense has to meet at the fourth, Philip, to hide back-up corners. Pitt is 33-13 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt.

Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David

Week 10 Recap

Week 10 started with a bang on Thursday when Denver nipped Cleveland 34-30 and ended with a shootout in the desert on Monday as Arizona held off San Francisco, 29-24. The ‘over’ went 9-5, pushing its season total to 74-64 (54%). The Monday Night Football ‘over’ ticket cashed again, while the Sunday Night Football ‘under’ run ended as the Giants stopped the Eagles 36-31 in a high scoring affair. Gamblers will have plenty of ‘over/under’ bets to make with 16 games scheduled weekly here on out. The Jets and Patriots (34-31) kicked off Week 11 with a shootout on Thursday, helping the ‘over’ continue its season stronghold.

Dome Sweet Dome – Part II

In last week’s Total Talk column, we focused on the eight teams that play their games in domes and retractable roof stadiums. Prior to Week 10, the ‘over’ had gone 17-13-1 (57%). Last week, four games were played on the fast tracks and the combined scores averaged 53.5 PPG, which included Arizona’s 29-24 win over San Francisco on Monday Night Football. All four games went ‘over’ the total and the season number now stands at 21-13-1 (62%) on indoor surfaces. On Sunday, two games are being played indoors and not surprisingly both totals are listed at 50-plus points.

Denver at Atlanta (51) – After being held to 15.2 PPG in its last five games, Denver’s offense exploded in its 34-30 road victory against Cleveland last Thursday. The combined 64 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 46, which snapped a 4-0 ‘under’ run for the Broncos. The offense is dangerous, but what makes Denver an ‘over’ play is its inconsistent defense (27.9 PPG). QB Jay Cutler and the Broncos get a few extra days to prepare for their second straight road game on Sunday when they visit Atlanta. The Falcons have been a big surprise particularly the offense (23.4 PPG, 361 YPG) led by rookie QB Matt Ryan. Atlanta has thrived at the Georgia Dome this year, averaging 32 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1. Considering the Broncos have surrendered 29.5 PPG in their four road games, all signs point to another shootout on Sunday.

Houston at Indianapolis (50.5) – The number on this game might be a tad low, considering the history between the Texans and Colts. The ‘over’ has cashed in seven straight meetings, including the Colts 31-27 victory over the Texans on Oct. 5. This matchup had a great shot to go ‘under’ but the Colts capitalized on two big fumbles by Houston QB Sage Rosenfels and scored 21 unanswered points in the final four minutes for the victory. Rosenfels will start behind center again this week with Matt Schaub (knee) ‘out’ indefinitely. Houston has watched the ‘over’ go 8-1 on the year, and 4-0 in its road games. The team has given up 28-plus points in seven of its nine games, including 41 to Baltimore last Sunday. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 5-4 on the year, but the ‘under’ is 3-1 at home. Peyton Manning and the Indy offense has only averaged 20.8 PPG at Lucas Oil Stadium but most would expect that to change against Houston. In the previous four home games played against Houston, the Colts have posted 49, 31, 43 and 38 points. Most offshore books have listed a team total of 30 points for Indy, which certainly seems doable.

Under the Bridge

Tennessee at Jacksonville: Oddsmakers put out a number of 39½ on this battle and don’t be surprised to see it drop. The Titans’ defense has been exceptional this year and even better on the road (10.3 PPG). Offensively, Tennessee has had trouble in its previous four trips to Jacksonville, averaging just 12.8 PPG. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the Titans’ four road games this year. The Jaguars will be looking to avenge a 17-10 road loss to Tennessee in Week 1, which easily went ‘under’ the closing total of 36 ½.

St. Louis at San Francisco: The last four meetings in this NFC West battle have all gone ‘under’ the total and they haven’t even come close to the closing number. The total has ranged anywhere from 39 to 45 and the books have opened this week’s number at 43½. The streak could easily come to an end, especially if the Rams (31.3 PPG) and 49ers’ (28.8 PPG) defensive units show up.

Something has to give!

Philadelphia at Cincinnati: The Eagles’ offense has averaged 30.8 PPG on the road this year, helping the ‘over’ go 3-1. Meanwhile the Bengals’ attack hasn’t been able to score at home this year, which is large reason why the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 on their turf.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers have been a clear-cut ‘under’ (3-1) team at home this year, while the Vikings have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in all four of their road games. Tampa Bay gets an extra week of rest to prepare and recent trends have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its last five games after a bye week.

Detroit at Carolina: The Panthers have seen the ‘under’ go 6-2-1 on the year, including 3-1-1 at home. Detroit’s offense has been horrendous at times this year but it’s been better on the road. More importantly the Lions’ defense (30.8 PPG) has helped the ‘over’ go 4-0 outside of Michigan. Daunte Culpepper gets the start again for Detroit this week and his career numbers (seven INTs) against the Panthers aren’t good.

Dallas at Washington: Washington nipped Dallas 26-24 on Sept. 28 in the first meeting between the two teams from the Lone Star State. The 26 points scored by the Redskins was the second highest point total of the season. In the last three home games, Jim Zorn’s team has put up 17, 14 and recently six in a MNF loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 3. The lack of offense at FedEx Field has resulted in a 4-1 ‘under’ ledger. Dallas has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 on the road this year and it gets QB Tony Romo back for a revenge battle.

vegasinsider.com

Non-Conference Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

The playoff chases in both conferences are staring to get interesting as we hit Week 11. Let’s take a look at four non-conference matchups that’ll go down Sunday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Broncos at Falcons**

--Most books are listing Atlanta (6-3 straight up, 6-3 against the spread) as a 6½-point favorite with a total of 50½. Gamblers can back the Broncos on the money line for a plus-240 return (risk $100 to win $240).

--The Falcons are the feel-good story of the 2008 NFL season so far. Just one year removed from seeing its franchise quarterback sent to prison and watching its head coach quit like a spineless chump, Atlanta is right in the thick of the things in what might be the toughest division in the league, the NFC South.

--Mike Smith’s team is perfect at home, posting a 4-0 record both SU and ATS. The Falcons have won three of those games by 13 points or more. They are coming off last week’s 34-20 win over the Saints as one-point home favorites.

--Rookie Matt Ryan continued to turn heads with his performance against New Orleans. The Boston College product completed 16-of-23 passes for 248 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Michael Turner rushed for 96 yards and one touchdown, while Jerious Norwood had a pair of catches for 88 yards and a touchdown.

--Denver (5-4 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) maintained a one-game lead over San Diego atop of the AFC West standings by rallying to win last Thursday at Cleveland, 34-30. The Broncos won outright as three-point underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-130 payout (risk $100 to win $130).

--Jay Cutler enjoyed a monster game against the Browns, throwing for a career-high 447 yards and three touchdowns. His 11-yard scoring strike to Brandon Marshall with 1:11 left was the game winner. Trailing 23-13 early in the fourth quarter, Cutler found Eddie Royal for momentum-shifting 93-yard touchdown pass.

--Cutler is third in the NFL in passing yards with 2,616. He also has an 18/11 touchdown-interception ratio this year. Meanwhile, Ryan has an 11/5 TD-INT ratio.

--Atlanta has a number of players among the league leaders in several categories. Turner is third in the NFL in rushing with 890 yards. He is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has seven rushing TDs. DE John Abraham is tied for the second in the NFL with 11 sacks. Also, WR Roddy White is third in the NFL in receiving yards (801).

--Denver Pro-Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey has missed back-to-back games since suffering a groin injury in a 41-7 loss at New England on Oct. 20. He is listed as “questionable” this week.

--Atlanta rookie OT Sam Baker remains “out” this week, but he is close to returning after undergoing lower back surgery to relieve pain in his hip.

--The Broncos are in the midst of an abysmal 8-24-1 ATS slump in their last 33 games.

--Dating back to last season, the ‘over’ is on a 7-1 run for the Falcons at home. The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for Atlanta, but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in its games at the Georgia Dome.

--The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 for Denver in its five road games in 2008.

--Going to back to 1985, the ‘over’ has cashed in seven straight head-to-head meetings between the Broncos and Falcons.

**Ravens at Giants**

--Most betting shops have installed the Giants as seven-point favorites with the total in the 40-41 range. The Ravens are plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

--With apologies to the Titans, I think the defending Super Bowl champs are the best team in the NFL right now. New York (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including last week’s 36-31 win at Philadelphia as a three-point underdog. Brandon Jacobs ran for 126 yards and a pair of TDs to pace the G-Men.

--Baltimore (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) has also won four consecutive games both SU and ATS. John Harbaugh, like Mike Smith in Atlanta, has turned out to be a find in his first stint as a head coach. Harbaugh’s squad is off a dominant 41-13 win at Houston as a 2 ½-point underdog.

--Willis McGahee ran for 112 yards and a pair of TDs against the Texans. Also, rookie QB Joe Flacco continued his tremendous play of late, throwing for a pair of TDs without an interception. During Baltimore’s four-game surge, the Delaware product has a 6/0 TD-INT ratio.

--Tom Coughlin’s team is unbeaten in five home games with a 4-1 spread record. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road.

--The ‘over’ has cashed in four consecutive games for the Ravens.

--The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for the Giants, 3-2 in their home games.

Eagles at Bengals**

--Most books have tabbed Philadelphia (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) as a nine-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 41. Bettors can take the Bengals to win outright for a plus-300 payout (risk $100 to win $300).

--Cincinnati (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS) is coming off a bye week that was preceded by the team’s first win of the season, a 21-19 victory over Jacksonville as a nine-point home underdog. Cedric Benson ran for 104 yards and a touchdown, while Ryan Fitzpatrick hooked up with Chad Ocho Cinco on a pair of scoring strikes.

--Andy Reid’s team lost a 36-31 decision as a three-point home favorite to the G-Men last week. Donovan McNabb threw for three touchdown passes but once again, the Eagles’ inability to convert in short-yardage situations came back to haunt them (for the third time this year).

--Cincy QB Carson Palmer (elbow) remains “out” for at least one more week, so Fitzpatrick will get his fifth straight start. He has a 4/6 TD-INT ratio.

--McNabb has a 13/5 TD-INT ratio even though he has been without RB Michael Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, WR Reggie Brown and WR Kevin Curtis due to injuries at various points in the season. All four of those players are back to 100 percent now and in their absence, rookie WR DeSean Jackson developed into a big-time playmaker. Jackson has 38 receptions for 536 yards and one touchdown. He’s also rushed for a TD.

--As a home underdog this year, Marvin Lewis’s team is 1-1 both SU and ATS. The Bengals are 1-3 both SU and ATS at home in 2008.

--The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for the Eagles, but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in their road games.

--The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these squads dating back to 1994. Going back to 1988, the Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles.

**Saints at Chiefs**

--Most spots have installed New Orleans (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) as a 5 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 50. The Chiefs are plus-200 on the money line.

--This might be a lost season for Kansas City (1-8 SU, 5-4 ATS), one that might cost Herm Edwards his job. Nevertheless, for our purposes, the Chiefs have been an extremely interesting and lucrative squad, especially the last few weeks. They have taken the money in three consecutive games, including last week’s 20-19 loss at San Diego as 14½-point underdogs.

--Kansas City has also found its quarterback of both the present and future, second-year signal caller Tyler Thigpen from out of Coastal Carolina. In the last three games (starts 2, 3 and 4 of his career), Thigpen has six touchdown passes without an interception.

--New Orleans has been atrocious on the road, compiling a 0-4 SU record to go with a 1-3 ATS mark. The Saints are off a 34-20 loss at Atlanta last week as one-point underdogs. The defeat kept Sean Payton’s team in the NFC South cellar, three games behind division-leading Carolina.

VegasInsider.com

Early-Action Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs

Five divisional battles taking place at 1:00 p.m. EST are sure to challenge the most seasoned of gamblers. Three of these games have point spreads ranging anywhere from nine to a wide open 14 points. Is it safe to say that the chalk will run away with the bacon as predicted by most books, or are there indications that the underdog has a fighting chance?

Chicago at Green Bay

For starters, the opening line and total have been adjusted through Thursday. Most books decided to lower Green Bay from a five to a 3 ½-point home favorite, with the ‘over/under’ going from 45 to 42 ½ at BetUS.com.

Chicago enters the fray with some uncertainty about who will take snaps. Quarterback Kyle Orton missed last week’s outing with an ankle injury but says he’s optimistic for a return this Sunday. Most sources are saying he’ll be a game-time decision so let’s not put backup signal caller Rex Grossman on the backburner just yet.

In his first start of the season against Tennessee last week, Grossman can best be described as going through the motions. The six-year slinger led Chicago into the end zone in the team’s first drive of the game and crossed the goal line with one rushing TD. But Grossman was also 9-for-23 for 53 passing yards on the other 11 series throughout the contest.

The Bears took both games as underdogs against the Packers last season by a combined score of 62-27.

Green Bay is coming off back-to-back defeats in Tennessee and Minnesota by a difference of no more then three points. Coming off three contests before the bye in Week 8 tossing 235.7 YPG with a 71 completion percentage, the Packers’ slinger Aaron Rogers has since struggled. In the last two defeats, Rodgers only completed only 55.7 percent of his passes.

Green Bay must be ready to stop the Bears’ back Matt Forte from running amuck. The Packers have allowed a 28th worst 154.6 rushing YPG which has helped translate into permitting 22.9 PPG on defense.

Total players should start to do their homework. The ‘over’ is 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings in Green Bay, is 8-1 in the Packers last nine overall and is 26-9-1 in the Bears last 36 games versus the NFC.

Including the two wins last season, Chicago is a combined 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight gatherings with Green Bay.

The Green Bay area is expected to dip into the low 30s to high 20s on Sunday so weather shouldn’t be considered a deciding factor in this contest in terms of precipitation.

Houston at Indianapolis

Bodog.com has installed the Colts as nine-point home favorites with a total set at a high 50½. Seven of the last nine games have seen Indianapolis as the favorite.

The Colts have rained dominance over the Texans with an 8-2 SU record but have only gone 5-5 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Indy is coming off an important 24-20 win over Pittsburgh which had backers running to the counter after taking the 3½-points.

The spread is heavy here, but take into consideration that Indianapolis was outgained by a total of 77 yards in both wins over the Steelers and Patriots (outgained 93 yards in the rushing department versus New England). And even with starting RB Joseph Addai back in action his 66 yards in the last two games has been far from instrumental.

One trend that has haunted teams is an 8-15 SU and 6-17 ATS record when coming off a game versus Pittsburgh. Indy is far from out of the woods in terms of betting them ATS.

Houston’s own 2-7 ATS record in its last nine versus a team with a winning record isn’t a great spot to start. And then there’s QB Sage Rosenfels. His 294 passing yards with one score was overshadowed by four big interceptions. While the Colts’ aren’t the nastiest defense out there, last week’s air debacle by the Texans could be an indication of a repeat performance by Rosenfels.

This is the largest amount of points attached to Houston this season. The Texans are 1-4 ATS as ‘underdogs this season.

Detroit at Carolina

Most books have opened the Lions as hefty 14-point underdogs with a total set at 40.

We can try to sweeten Detroit’s numbers but the fact is there’s nothing here that looks promising. We’re talking about QB problems like no other team (ok, maybe in Oakland). Newly acquired slinger Daunte Culpepper was greeted back into the league by throwing 5-for-10 for 104 yards and an interception in a 38-14 loss against Jacksonville last week. But failure to find the end zone on the goal line was the worst of pictures painted. Remember that Culpepper made a living using his legs and that failed conversion into six points was embarrassing to witness in the first quarter.

On the season, the Lions are giving up 244.9 YPG for 31.3 PPG allowed.

Carolina might be 7-2 SU, dictating first place honors in the NFC South, but losing the yards battle to Oakland (gaining 40 yards less then their opponent) last week has some backers questioning the state of this offense.

And then there was Panther’s QB Jake Delhomme’s despicable four interception performance against an Oakland defense which had dialed in just seven picks before Week 10. Be aware that Carolina is just 1-3 ATS versus Detroit in the last four meetings.

Where the Panthers fell apart last week look for its rushing game (119.2 YPG on the ground) to pickup the mess. Running back DeAngelo Williams has turned up the heat since Week 7, rushing for 314 yards with two TDs.

It’s a tough spread to handicap but Detroit has been a curse to watch, while Carolina has been keeping its head above water despite some poor statistical performances.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers have looked unpredictable in losses against Dallas, Denver and Chicago. But a razor edge win in Kansas City (30-27) gave backers a reason to be concerned. It was the third ATS loss in a row since knocking off five straight ATS wins dating back to Week 2.

Sportsbetting.com has proceeded to install Tampa Bay as a four-point favorite with a total set at 38 ½. This is the sixth time this season that the Bucs have been favored this year, going on to cover three of those contests.

Easily facing the best team in its schedule for several weeks now, Tampa Bay is not only hoping that slinger Jeff Garcia can continue building on his efficient 89.6 QB rating but that returning RB Carnell Williams can bolster a rushing offense already raked 11th best. Williams is coming off torn patellar tendon in his right knee.

For Minnesota defense will be the key to a large ‘W’. The Vikings ‘D’ squad is sixth best (289.3 YPG allowed) with the 4-3 Base formation responsible for holding opponents to just 70.1 YPG on the ground.

But we can’t overlook the importance of RB Adrian Peterson. His contribution of 206 rushing attempts for a large 1,015 yards with seven TDs could rival some QBs numbers in the league. Minnesota has been out-rushed (in yards) just once this season but surprisingly the result was a victory in New Orleans (30-27) during Week 5. In-fact two of their four defeats this season has come from being outyarded through the air.

The home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall, while Tampa Bay is a strong 10-2-1 in its last 13 games played in Week 11.

Oakland at Miami

It’s another tough debate to go out on a limb and say that the Raiders can waltz into South Florida on Sunday. It might be more difficult to say that they can cash in as 10½-point underdogs let alone to take the win straight up. Brobury Sports has listed the total at 38½.

This is the third time this season that Oakland has been listed as a double-digit ‘dog. In its last loss to Carolina (17-6), the Raiders failed to cover the 10 points on the board resulting in a 3-6 ATS record on the season. Scoring six points in that contest is just representative of the team’s 12.6 PPG on the year. The result is a point margin of minus-11.6.

If there’s one thing for certain it’s Oakland’s last place ranking in passing yards (139.2 YPG). Between all three QBs on the roster, there’s absolutely no reason why teams need worry about the air attack from the Bay area. Hefty slinger JaMarcus Russell appears to be ready to return to behind center after suffering an ankle injury in Week 9.

The story in Miami has taken a different path. Coach Tony Sparano has taken his Dolphins out of the cellar with a 5-4 SU and ATS record. A look ahead on Miami’s schedule actually looks quite favorable with the Pats (who the ‘Fins defeated in Week 3, 38-13), St. Louis and a demoralized Buffalo team in the next three games.

Revitalized QB Chad Pennington (92.6 QB rating with 2,200 passing yards) can take a break this week. Expect the running game behind Ronnie Brown (who’s numbers have dropped drastically by averaging 2.9 yards per carry in the last four games) and Ricky Williams to carry this week’s load. Oakland is allowing teams to rack up 158.1 YPG on the ground.

The Dolphins have covered five of their last seven games, but are only 2-3 ATS in their last five home games and are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 versus a team with a losing record.

vegasinsider.com.

NFL News & Notes

Buffalo @ New England- Bills without DE Schobel and SS Whitner…Buff has scored 16, 17 pts last two weeks…Bills already 0-2 in division…Patriots D rejuvenated, allowing 7, 16, 18 pts last 3 games…RB’s Morris & Jordan doubtful

Tennessee @ Chicago- Titans 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS…have won 11 straight regular season games dating to last season…have held 7 of 8 opponents to 17 points or fewer…+10 turnover margin…Bears D has 12 picks spread among 9 players…20% of Chicago TD’s have come when offense NOT on field

New Orleans @ Atlanta- Saints have allowed at least 30 pts in 3 of last 4…Reggie Bush still OUT…Atlanta 0-2 in division, but 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season…Falcons Big 3 very young, Ryan 23, Turner 26, White 27

Green Bay @ Minnesota- Pack has allowed 17, 14, 19 pts last 3 games…2-0 in division…G Bay stoppers have 13 INT’s…Minny 187 rushing yards in Week 1 loss at Lambeau…K Williams and Allen 7 sacks each…Vikes have allowed 4 return TD’s

NY Giants @ Philadelphia- both teams on 3 game win streak…G-Men 2-0 in division, Eagles 0-2-…Giants lead NFC with 30 sacks, Philly second with 27…both teams have allowed just 3 rushing touchdowns…Giants have scored 24 TD’s, Eagles have scored 23…Manning 12 TD 5 INT 89.7 rating…McNabb 10 TD 4 INT 92.8 rating

Sunday's best: Cowboys at Redskins
By JASON LOGAN

Line: Oddsmakers opened with the Redskins set as 2.5-point home favorites, but with Clinton Portis questionable for Sunday's game the number has since dropped to +1.

Jerry's kids

When everyone else has written off the Dallas Cowboys, it's good to know the guy signing the cheques hasn't lost faith. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is confident his team will make the playoffs despite its 5-4 (3-6 ATS) record.

"That's not optimism," Jones told reporters. "I just see that we were going to have to be a team that (was) playing well and won a lot of games at the end of the year to be what we want to be anyway."

Dallas' lone chance at the postseason will be to land a wild card spot. However, it will be battling Washington, Philadelphia and a handful of other NFC squads.

The love-in at Valley Ranch could continue if the NFL gives suspended corner Adam “Pacman” Jones the green light. Jerry Jones also told the press this week that he would welcome the troublesome DB back. A decision on Pacman's future won't come until after Sunday's game.

He's spent the last few weeks visiting a Boston rehab facility to deal with his problem drinking. Jones suited up six times before his infamous bathroom brawl. He's made 22 tackles and added 69 punt return yards. The Cowboys front office isn't overly concerned about his return causing distractions during this crucial second half of the schedule.

Knees knocking for RB status

Washington will likely be without its biggest weapon Sunday. Running back Clinton Portis is listed as doubtful after spraining his knee in a 23-6 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago. His health didn't improve enough over the bye week to allow the team to give him the go ahead for Sunday.

Portis is the NFL's second leading rusher with 995 yards. He's scored seven times on the ground and has only fumbled once this season.

The Skins will turn to veteran back Ladell Betts if Portis is sidelined. Betts is also battling a sprained knee and had missed the last three games. He looked solid in practice this week and even participated on a rain-drenched practice field.

If neither running back is able to play, Washington would hand the ball to Shaun Alexander. The former MVP signed with the team a few weeks back and has run for 24 yards on seven carries in his two games with the Redskins.

Big T's return for Big D

Cowboys backers are relieved to have two of the team's most important players back on both sides of the ball this Sunday. Quarterback Tony Romo and cornerback Terence Newman are scheduled to return.

Newman has missed most of the season with a sports hernia. His absence in the secondary has left Dallas to depend on rookie Mike Jenkins to lock down top receivers. Newman made 44 tackles and grabbed four interceptions last season.

Newman will match up with Redskins wideout Santana Moss, who has burned the Cowboys with big games in the past. Moss had 145 reception yards in Washington's 26-24 win in Dallas as 10.5-road underdogs Week 4 and plans on testing a rusty Newman.

Romo's return is just in time to salvage the Cowboys offense and perhaps the season. Without the Pro-Bowl quarterback, the team turned to backups Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger. Neither could connect with targets on big plays and their lack of mobility made the offense one-dimensional.

Romo has passed for almost 1,700 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. He says the injured finger on his throwing hand is getting better every day but admits he is a bit rusty. This game also marks the first time Romo will have hulking receiver Roy Williams on the wing, giving the quarter three solid options along side Terrell Owens and tight end Jason Witten.

Hall makes D.C. debut

Outspoken cornerback DeAngelo Hall makes his first start for the Redskins since signing with the team following his exile from Oakland.

Hall was in talks with both Washington and Dallas before the Virginia native decided settled on a spot closer to home. He could see more time than expected if starting corner Shawn Springs is slowed by a calf injury.

Hall played nine games for the Raiders this season, picking up 43 tackles and three interceptions. He was traded to the Raiders this offseason after a falling out with the Atlanta Falcons last year.

Earlier this week, reporters asked Cowboys star receiver and fellow big mouth Terrell Owens what he thought about Hall covering him on Sunday Night Football. The always brash T.O. did not disappoint.

"At the rate he's playing, I'm looking forward to a big day," Owens told the Associated Press "I'm no stranger to playing against him. I've had success against him just as much as everybody else has, so if he's out there, I'm looking forward to playing him

Where the action is: Sunday's key NFL line moves

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants

Line/Total: Giants opened 6.5 and remained there most of the week, but enough action has steadily come in on the Giants to force us to move it to 7. We opened the total 42 and remain there.

Matchup of the Game: Ravens 1st ranked rush defense (giving up only 65.4 yards a game) vs. Giants 1st ranked rushing offense (averaging 168.9 yards a game).

Key Injuries: Ravens: OT Willie Anderson and WR Derrick Mason upgraded to probable. Tight end Daniel Wilcox missed last game, listed Questionable.

Giants: LB Gerris Wilkinson downgraded to expected to miss. CB Corey Webster upgraded to probable. LB Jonathan Goff injured last game, listed as questionable. S James Butler missed last game, listed questionable.

Weather: Looks mild for game in the Meadowlands in mid-November. Game time temperature around 48 degrees with a slight wind.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Line/Total: We opened this game later in the week (Thursday) due to QB Kyle Orton’s injury. We opened Packers 3.5 and 43 and there’s been zero movement on the game. People will probably wait to bet it when there’s more definitive information on Orton.

Matchup of the Game: Bears 30th ranked pass defense (giving up 251.8 yards a game) vs. QB Aaron Rodgers who’s ranked 5th in passing efficiency.

Key Injuries: Bears: QB Kyle Orton has practiced some this week, but is still listed questionable. HC Lovie Smith say’s “if he continues to make progress like he has, I think he has a good chance to play.” WR Brandon Lloyd and LB Hunter Hillenmeyer both missed last game and are listed as questionable.

Packers: LB Nick Barnett expected to miss the reason of the year.

Weather: Game time temperature 35 degrees, chance of light snow showers.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line/Total: Bucs opened at -3.5 and there’s been sharp action on the favorite. We’re currently dealing Bucs -4. I expect more action on the favorite and we’ll most likely close the game 4.5 or higher. Total opened at 39.5 and was quickly bet down to 38.5, again sharp action moving that total. We’ve seen public action on the over so I doubt this total will go down more.

Matchup of the Game: QB Gus Ferrotte, who’s thrown eight interceptions in his last three starts against the Bucs’ 5th ranked passing defense, which also ranks 2nd in the NFL with 12 interceptions.

Key Injuries: Vikings: S Madieu is questionable.

Bucs: RB Carnell “Cadillac” Williams was activated this week after being out since last year with a career threatening knee injury. He’s listed as questionable. RB Warrick Dunn, WR Ike Hilliard, FB BJ Askew all upgraded to probable. RB Earnest Graham is auestionable. TE Alex Smith downgraded to doubtful. OG Arron Sears missed last game, listed questionable.

Weather: Another beautiful day in Tampa, game time temperatures in the mid 70’s.

San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Line/Total: We opened Steelers -4 and 43 on Monday, but we closed the line when news came out that QB Ben Roethlisberger was questionable for the game. We reopened the game on Thursday once it was confirmed he’d be playing. We’re currently offering Steelers -5.5 and 42.5.

Matchup of the Game: QB Philip Rivers’ 2nd ranked passer rating vs. Steelers 1st ranked passing defense (gives up only 171.1 yards a game)

Key Injuries: Chargers: No significant injuries to report.

Steelers: QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie Parker, LB LaMarr Woodley all upgraded to probable. TE Heath Miller downgraded to expect to miss. CB Deshea Townsend injured last game, downgraded to expected to miss.

Weather: Slight chance of rain showers with game time temperature in the mid 30s.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins

Line/Total: We opened this game on Wednesday due to a slew of injuries on the Redskins side of the ball, especially RB Portis. We opened Cowboys -1 and 43. All the early action is on the ‘Boys. We moved the line a half-point to Cowboys -1.5. No movement on the total.

Matchup of the Game: Cowboys sputtering offense gets its leader back, QB Tony Romo. He and the Cowboys offense vs. the Redskins 4th ranked defense.

Key Injuries: Cowboys: QB Tony Romo, G Leonard Davis and OG Kyle Kosier all listed probable. RB Felix Jones downgraded to doubtful.

Redskins: RB Clinton Portis, LB Marcus Washington and DT Anthony Montgomery all downgraded to doubtful. DE Jason Taylor, CB Shawn Springs and OL Chris Samuels all upgraded to probable. RB Ladell Betts upgraded to questionable. WR Santana Moss and OG Pete Kendall listed as questionable.

Weather: Chance of light snow showers with game time temperatures in the mid 40s.

Sunday Night Preview
By Josh Jacobs

The big return of Cowboys’ quarterback Tony Romo will be a center piece in Sunday Night’s return to the tube. But there’s a lot more at stake.

The ingredients for an explosive NFC East matchup with postseason inferences will all come together at FedEx Field in Maryland. Most books have made some major adjustments to the original two-point line that was in favor of Washington. As of Saturday morning, Bodog.com had installed Dallas as a 1 ½-point visiting favorite with the total sitting at 43. So we now have a shift in expectations, but why?

The most obvious answer is that explosive running back Clinton Portis has been downgraded to "doubtful" after some reports earlier in the week had him listed as ‘probable.’ Portis has 995 rushing yards with seven touchdowns this season, allowing signal caller Jason Campbell to operate more effectively in the newly installed West Coast offense. The pivotal running back is suffering from a sprained knee and any effort to rush that healing process could be detrimental in the long run.

We can turn a blind eye to the Portis factor all we want but the Redskins are 0-2 SU and ATS when they’ve been outyarded in the ground game (in Week 1 against the Giants and last week versus Pittsburgh).

Bettors could be looking at RBs Ladell Betts (questionable), Shaun Alexander and/or Rock Cartwright to fill in the big shoes of Portis.

Dallas enters this divisional war with an outstanding 6-2 record on the ‘over’ in its last eight. The total play has been hot thanks to the Cowboys’ defense giving up 26.2 PPG during the course of the ‘over’ run. In four of those contests, Dallas has been responsible for coughing up 30-plus points. Combine the offense finding the inside of the end zone for 23.5 PPG and we get an average total score of 49.7 PPG.

Books have only installed the total at 49 or more points twice this season in Dallas games.

Then we have Tony Romo. The Cowboys slinger had recorded nine touchdowns with only two picks in the three weeks of play leading up to his broken pinky injury. There’s no doubt that Dallas couldn’t be happier to welcome back its star studded QB, especially with playoffs on the line. And we’re talking about signal callers Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger combining for six picks and only three scores in a total of 50 passing attempts.

But Romo won’t be able to solve the Cowboys problem in the secondary. This is a core of players ranked second to last with three interceptions this season. The 3-4 D formation has produced 26 sacks but nothing can help save cornerbacks Mike Jenkins, Anthony Henry and safeties Pat Watkins and Ken Hamlin.

This is a revenge game for Dallas who found themselves on the losing end in Week 4 at home. The Redskins used RB Portis to perfection as his 121 rushing yards freed up QB Campbell for two TD passes. Dallas’ Marion Barber was held to rushing for just 26 yards, while Romo once again picked up the slack for 300 yards passing with three scores.

Another big deterrent in gambling on Washington is the 1-13 ATS record teams have suffered with after coming off a game against the Steelers in which that team scored 20 points or less. It’s just a habit of playing poorly after coming off a physical contest against emotionally draining Pittsburgh.

Against the grain is the Redskins’ four straight ATS wins and a 6-1 ATS billing in the last seven head-to-head meetings versus the Cowboys.

The underdog in this matchup is 20-6 ATS in the last 26, while Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of November.

vegasinsider.com.

NFL RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy

Denver vs. Atlanta

I nearly took the Falcons today. After all, they are undefeated in the Georgia Dome. But, the line is nearly a touchdown and Denver did manage to come back from a huge deficit at Cleveland which I can respect. The total has risen roughly 2 points and now sits at 51. The running back situation for Denver is brutal. Hall, Pittman, Torain are all out - Young is doubtful. Falcons sit at 6-3 and are actually in position for a wildcard spot this year. These two teams have not met since 2004 last year. Denver was 0-6-1 ATS prior to that win in Cleveland outright where they finally covered a game. Falcons have covered back to back games and have outscored their opponents 58-20 in the last 2 games. My lean here is on the Falcons. If you lean on Denver, I would lean on the over as well as this could be a high scoring game such as Denver @ Cleveland. With Denver's RB's so banged up, they are likely to go to the air more with Cutler.

Oakland vs. Miami

This line has steadily come down. This could be because Russell has been upgraded to probable. The line originally opened up at -13 and has come down to -10. Oakland has lost 3 straight covers including being a 10 point home dog to the Panthers and now sit at as 10 point road dogs to the Dolphins. Dolphins, after winning against the Bills at home and Denver on the road, barely defeated Seneca Wallace and the Seahawks at home. This is another reason why the line could have come down. No lean here, but I don't think it's that impossible to see the Dolphins blow out a team here at home but after seeing the line drop, I just stayed away.

Ravens vs. Giants

The line has taken a 1.5 drop from the opening total of 42 and now sits at 40.5.

Texans vs. Colts

God, it must stink to the own the Texans when they play in the same division as the Colts year in and year out. Yet, that is the case with these Texans. The total has gone up about a point and that is not a surprise considering the last 7 in this contest have gone over. In fact, I have taken the over the last 4 times these two teams have met - but this time, I'm a bit wary. But, check these results out the last 7 times they have played:

10/05/08 IND 31 - HOU 27 IND -3 O 48.5
12/23/07 HOU 15 - IND 38 IND -6.5 O 44.5
09/23/07 IND 30 - HOU 24 HOU 6.5 O 46
12/24/06 IND 24 - HOU 27 HOU 9 O 47
09/17/06 HOU 24 - IND 43 IND -11.5 O 47.5
11/13/05 HOU 17 - IND 31 HOU 17.5 O 45
10/23/05 IND 38 - HOU 20 IND -14.5 O 44

Consequently, the total for this game is over 50. Indy comes off a big win at Pitt and if they are going to start streaking, this is the right time. This team is 5-4 and with a win here can certainly aid their chances at a playoff birth with 6-4 record. Texans have gotten up to play the Colts of late, but note they come off an ugly loss to the Ravens at home so they might be in for a good bounce-back here. But, the Colts are due for a breakout out game one would think.

Titans vs. Jaguars

The total has gone up a point in this game from the opening line. Jags are known to step up in the big game. They typically get up for such games. Remember that year they killed the Colts at home in a division game? But, this team has a tendency to lay down against weaker teams - but they play an undefeated Titans team today. Most still are not getting the Titans the respect they deserve. The Titans are 8-1 ATS coming into this game and the Jags come off a big win against Detroit on the road. This game can go either way imo, and a small lean on the over.

Saints vs. Chiefs

Note, that Reggie Bush is out and Larry Johnson is probable for this game. Arrowhead stadium is still one of the toughest places to play regardless of what the Chiefs record is. The Chiefs have played significantly better each week and Thigpen has looked better and better each week. Is it that impossible for this Chiefs team to now win this game outright? I don't think so. Look, the Saints are at the bottom of the barrel in the NFC South. This team stinks perennially because they have no defense - either in passing or in running defense. The Chiefs nearly beat the Chargers on the road after nearly beating the Bucs outright at home. I understand the Saints come off a loss to Atlanta. But, did you know the Saints are 0-4 on the road? So, what you have is a winless road team favored by 5 points on the road in one the toughest places to play historically in the NFL. The Chiefs have covered 3 straight, but the only thing that keeps me wary of taking the Chiefs is the fact that the Saints have yet to lose back to back covers this year. Still, you might want to take a look at the Chiefs.

Arizona vs. Seattle

Be careful with this game. Seattle comes home needing a win for morale. Hasselbeck is back for this game. Branch is still listed questionable for the Seahawks. Remember, the Cardinals are not all that. We saw that against the 49ers when it was clear that this team could have and frankly should have lost that game on MNF. Yet, they managed to pull it off with the skin of their teeth. In short, I would not be a bit surprised to see the Seahawks win this game outright.

Cowboys vs. Redskins

As I'm sure you know by now, Romo is probable for this game. The Cowboys have revenge from an earlier season loss at home to the Redskins. Portis will also not likely play in this game. The Cowboys are in desperate need of a win here and despite Romo having an injured pinky, a lean on the Boys' to get it done here because of urgency, revenge and the Redskins being a big banged up.

Snow expected during Pittsburgh-San Diego game
By Randy Scott

San Diego 42
Pittsburgh -5.5

*Weather: Snow showers with temperatures possibly hitting the low 30s.
- The pointspread was hit by wise action at: Pittsburgh -3.5

- The total opened at: 43
- Where the public is: Pittsburgh by a ratio of 11.9 to 3.5

- Where the money is: Pittsburgh

- The Steelers have the odds to win outright at home -- in winter conditions, but we only make them a coin-toss favorite to cover the pointspread.

Denver 51
Atlanta -6.5

- The total was hit by wise action at: Under 51.5

- The pointspread opened at: Atlanta -5.5
- Where the public is: Atlanta by a ratio of 14.1 to 7.3

- Where the money is: Atlanta

- Atlanta is a decent favorite to win the game and we also have the Falcons as moderate favorites to cover the spread at home this week.

Oakland 38.5
Miami -11

- The pointspread opened at: Miami -11

- The total opened at: 39

- Where the public is: Miami by a ratio of 11.2 to 5.8

- Where the money is: Miami

- Miami has huge odds to win outright and we also give the Fish decent odds to cover the double-digit spread at home.

Baltimore 40.5
NY Giants -7.5

- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: NY Giants -6.5

- The total opened at: 42
- Where the public is: NY Giants by a ratio of 17.9 to 6.0

- Where the money is: NY Giants

- The Giants are decent favorites to win this game outright, but we give Baltimore good odds to cover the spread.

Houston 50.5
Indianapolis -9

- The total was hit by wise action at: Under 51.5

- The pointspread opened at: Indianapolis -9
- Where the public is: Indianapolis by a ratio of 14.2 to 5.5

- Where the money is: Houston

- We have the Colts as big favorites to win the game and to cover the spread this week.

Tennessee -2.5
Jacksonville 39.5

- The pointspread opened at: Tennessee -3

- The total opened at: 39.5
- Where the public is: Tennessee by a ratio of 19.1 to 6.5

- Where the money is: Jacksonville

- Because of Tennessee’s perfect record we have them as decent favorites to win again, but we also give Jacksonville a slight edge to cover at home.

Chicago 43.5
Green Bay -3.5

- The pointspread opened at: Green Bay -4

- The total opened at: 43
- Where the public is: Split

- Where the money is: Split

- We have Green Bay as big favorites to win outright at home this week, but we give Chicago decent odds to cover their underdog spread.

Philadelphia -9
Cincinnati 41

- The pointspread opened at: Philadelphia -9

- The total opened at: 43
- Where the public is: Philadelphia by a ratio of 15.8 to 2.7

- Where the money is: Philadelphia

- We don’t give Cincinnati much of a chance to win this game, but we do give the Bengals very good odds to cover their big underdog spread at home.

New Orleans -5.5
Kansas City 50

- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 48.5

- The pointspread opened at: New Orleans -5
- Where the public is: New Orleans by a ratio of 7.5 to 2.5

- Where the money is: New Orleans

- We have New Orleans as big favorites to win the game, and also make the Saints decent favorites to cover the spread.

Detroit 40
Carolina -14.5

- The pointspread opened at: Carolina -14.5

- The total opened at: 39.5
- Where the public is: Split

- Where the money is: Detroit

- Carolina has huge odds to win at home, and we give Detroit the same huge odds to cover the double-digit pointspread.

Minnesota 39
Tampa Bay -4

- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: Tampa Bay -3.5

- The total opened at: 39.5
- Where the public is: Tampa Bay by a ratio of 10.5 to 6.1

- Where the money is: Tampa Bay

- We have Tampa Bay has moderate favorites to both win and cover at home this week.

St. Louis 44
San Francisco -6.5

- The pointspread opened at: San Francisco -6

- The total opened at: 44.5
- Where the public is: San Francisco by a ratio of 6.6 to 1.7

- Where the money is: San Francisco

- We have San Francisco as decent favorites to win at home, but it’s anyone’s guess what ST. Louis will do this week.

Arizona -3
Seattle 48

- The pointspread opened at: Arizona -3

- The total opened at: 48.5
- Where the public is: Arizona by a ratio of 17.5 to 1.8

- Where the money is: Arizona

- We have Arizona as moderate favorites to win as well as cover the spread on the road this week.

Dallas -1
Washington 43

- The pointspread opened at: Dallas

- The total opened at: 43.5
- Where the public is: Dallas by a ratio of 7.6 to 4.8

- Where the money is: Split

- This one is simple; it's a coin flip game.